Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the public fund allocation ratio for the home appliance sector decreased by 15.4% to a market value of 99.56 billion yuan, with a public fund allocation ratio of 3.85%, down by 0.72 percentage points [9] - Among the sub-sectors, the black appliance segment saw an increase in public fund allocation, while the white and small appliances experienced declines [12] - TCL Electronics expects a net profit of approximately 950 million to 1.08 billion HKD for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% due to its focus on globalization and high-end product development [16][17] -泉峰控股 anticipates a net profit of approximately 90 million to 100 million USD for H1 2025, reflecting a 50% year-on-year increase driven by revenue growth and contributions from high-margin brands [18] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Topic: Q2 2025 Home Appliance Sector Fund Allocation - The public fund holding market value for the home appliance sector was 99.56 billion yuan, down 15.4% [9] - The allocation ratios for sub-sectors were as follows: white appliances (3.05%), small appliances (0.30%), black appliances (0.20%), appliance components (0.26%), kitchen and bathroom appliances (0.02%), and lighting equipment (0.01%) [12] 2. Key Company Announcements - TCL Electronics projects a significant increase in net profit for H1 2025, driven by advancements in high-end display technologies and improved product competitiveness [16] -泉峰控股 expects a substantial profit increase due to growth in its proprietary brand business and favorable currency effects [18] 3. Data Tracking 3.1 Raw Material Data - LME copper price increased by 1.3% and aluminum price by 2.5% as of July 25, 2025 [19] 3.2 Shipping Rates and Exchange Rates - The CCFI composite index decreased by 3.24% as of July 25, 2025, with a slight decline in the USD to RMB exchange rate [24] 3.3 Real Estate Data - In the first half of 2025, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.5%, with significant declines in construction and new starts [26]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, Newmont's attributable gold production was 1.48 million ounces (approximately 46.03 tons), a decrease of 3.9% quarter-over-quarter and 8.1% year-over-year, primarily due to the completion of non-core asset sales [2] - The average realized gold price in Q2 2025 was $3,320 per ounce, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter increase of 12.8% and a year-over-year increase of 41.5% [2] - The adjusted net income for Q2 2025 was $1.594 billion, representing a quarter-over-quarter growth of 13.5% and a year-over-year growth of 91.1% [6] Production and Operational Performance - Q2 2025 gold unit sales cost (CAS) excluding by-product revenue was $1,215 per ounce, a decrease of 1.0% quarter-over-quarter but an increase of 5.5% year-over-year [3] - The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) excluding by-product revenue was $1,593 per ounce, down 3.5% quarter-over-quarter but up 2.0% year-over-year [3] - The company expects approximately 50% of its gold production for 2025 to come from the second half of the year, with anticipated increases from Nevada and Yanacocha mines [8] Financial Performance - Newmont's sales revenue for Q2 2025 was $5.317 billion, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 6.1% and a year-over-year increase of 20.8% [4] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $2.997 billion, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter increase of 14.0% and a year-over-year increase of 52.4% [6] - Free cash flow for Q2 2025 was $1.710 billion, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 41.9% and a year-over-year increase of 187.9% [7] Asset Divestiture and Guidance - Newmont has completed the sale of all non-core businesses and expects total proceeds from announced transactions to reach up to $4.3 billion, with $2.5 billion in net cash received so far in 2025 [12] - The company maintains its production guidance for 2025, with total attributable gold production expected to be 5.9 million ounces [15]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Views - The AI industry is expected to enter a "technology + policy" resonance upward cycle [4][40] - Major overseas companies are continuously advancing their AI businesses, with Google reporting a cloud revenue of $13.624 billion in Q2 2025, a year-on-year growth of 31.67% [12][17] - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference was successfully held, indicating China's leading position in the global AI revolution and the likelihood of supportive policies being introduced [2][25] - Global large model technology is expected to accelerate iteration, with OpenAI's GPT-5 anticipated to be released soon, integrating multiple internal technologies [3][40] Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Major Companies' AI Business Progress - Google reported Q2 2025 earnings with cloud revenue reaching $13.624 billion, maintaining a growth rate of approximately 30% since 2024 [12][17] - The search engine business also showed resilience, with revenue of $54.190 billion in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.71% [20] - The Gemini application has over 450 million monthly active users, with a significant increase in daily requests [21][23] 2. Successful Hosting of the World Artificial Intelligence Conference - The conference featured over 800 companies and 3,000 cutting-edge exhibits, highlighting China's commitment to AI development [2][25] - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of inclusive AI development and international cooperation during his speech [26][40] 3. Acceleration of Global Large Model Technology Iteration - OpenAI's GPT-5 is expected to be released soon, integrating various technologies to handle text, code, images, and tool calls [3][40] - The successful launch of GPT-5 could enhance confidence in the commercial application of AI technologies [3][40] 4. Investment Recommendations - Beneficial stocks include: - Large Models: iFlytek, Kunlun Wanwei [4] - AI Programming Applications: Zhuoyi Information, Dingjie Software, Hand Information [4] - AI Office Applications: Kingsoft Office, Foxit Software, Hehe Information [4] - AI Multi-modal: Wanjing Technology, Hongsoft Technology, Meitu Company [4] - AI Education Applications: Jiafa Education, Jingyeda [4] - AI Medical Applications: Weining Health, Jiahe Meikang, Rundata Medical [4]

[Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾： 近期反内卷政策预期持续发酵，国内股票和商品市场均走强，债券市场则承压。股市方面，本周上证指数周线走 出"五连阳"，全 A 日成交额一度突破 1.9 万亿元，A 股宽基指数普涨；市场风格上，周期和成长风格领涨；行业 板块方面，水电、大基建、煤炭、有色金属等板块大涨。国内商品方面，反内卷相关的焦煤、玻璃、多晶硅、焦 炭等期货价格加速上行，进一步提振市场信心。 ·市场展望："反内卷"政策为 A 股上涨行情添一把火，寻找确定性主线。基本面来看，"反内卷"自上而下加速 落地，修正了部分投资者对经济长期低通胀的预期，A 股企业盈利得到提振；资金层面，二季度以来 A 股上涨行情 与"公募、私募仓位抬升、融资资金净买入"形成了正反馈效应，后续随着股市赚钱效应显现，居民增量资金入 市亦值得期待，下半年 A 股或有望冲击 2024 年高点。以下几个方面是近期市场关注的重点： ·行业配置上，寻找确定性主线：1）"十五五"规划相关新技术、新成长方向：如 AI 算力、机器人、军工、海洋 经济、固态电池等；2）受益于反内卷和涨价相关资源品方向。 风 ...

Market Overview - The equity market continued to strengthen from July 21-25, with the Wind All A closing at 5620.73, up 2.21% from July 18, and the China Convertible Bond Index rising 2.14% during the same period[1][8]. - Year-to-date, the Wind All A has increased by 11.93%, while the China Convertible Bond Index has risen by 11.82%[1][8]. Sector Rotation - The dominant sectors shifted from infrastructure to technology, driven by the commencement of the Yajiang Hydropower Station, which boosted market sentiment and funding participation[1][11]. - From July 21-25, the infrastructure narrative experienced three phases: a significant rise, a narrowing focus, and subsequent pressure, indicating a short-term adjustment in funding logic[1][18]. Investment Strategy - As the market approaches a period of macro events, including the Political Bureau meeting and US-China trade negotiations, maintaining a bullish mindset while employing a rotation strategy is crucial[2][41]. - The technology sector's declining heat and the strengthening of industrial narratives present ongoing investment opportunities, particularly in semiconductors and AI, which are expected to benefit from low-level rebounds[2][46]. Convertible Bond Valuation - As of July 25, the valuation of convertible bonds has reached historical highs, with the median price nearing 130 RMB, supported by strong market conditions despite the high valuation levels[2][52]. - The valuation centers for convertible bonds at various price points have increased, with the 80 RMB parity corresponding to a valuation center of 51.63%, up 1.82 percentage points from July 18[2][31]. Risk Factors - The rapid rotation of equity market styles and potential unexpected adjustments in the convertible bond market rules pose risks that investors should monitor closely[3][3].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Viewpoints - The commencement of the Yaxia Hydropower Station is expected to drive significant demand for engineering, construction materials, and civil explosives, with key beneficiaries including Zhongyan Dadi, China Power Construction, and China Energy Engineering [1][7] - The cement market is experiencing price declines, while the glass market is seeing a rebound in prices due to industry self-discipline and price increases [2][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic substitution in the shipbuilding paint sector, with companies like Maijia Xincai and Songjing Co. expected to benefit from rising demand [1][7] Summary by Sections Market Trends - In the 30th week of the year, new home transaction volume in 30 major cities decreased by 9% year-on-year, with a total transaction area of 1.4758 million square meters [1][18] - The second-hand housing market in 15 monitored cities saw a 4% year-on-year decrease in transaction area, totaling 1.6674 million square meters [1][18] Cement Market - The national average cement price is 356 RMB/ton, down 0.9% from the previous week, with an average shipment rate of 43% [2][21] - The report highlights a significant drop in demand due to adverse weather conditions, impacting construction activities across various regions [21] Glass Market - The average price of float glass increased to 1238.61 RMB/ton, reflecting a 2.20% increase from the previous week [2][64] - The report notes a stable trading environment for photovoltaic glass, with prices remaining unchanged [70] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong pricing power and cost advantages in the cement and waterproofing sectors, such as Huaxin Cement and Dongfang Yuhong [1][7] - It also suggests investing in companies involved in domestic substitution in the paint industry, particularly those with innovative applications in new fields [1][7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The real - estate market shows a mixed performance with both二手房 and新房 sales experiencing consecutive year - on - year declines for seven weeks, but with some variations in different city tiers and specific cities [1][3]. 3. Detailed Summaries 3.1. Overall Second - hand Housing - This week (July 18 - 24), the second - hand housing transaction area in 15 cities was 2.11 million square meters, with a 1% week - on - week increase and a 4% year - on - year decline, having declined for seven consecutive weeks. From July 1 - 24, the cumulative year - on - year decline was 6%, higher than the 3% decline in June [1]. 3.2. Second - hand Housing by City Tier - In first - tier cities, the weekly transaction area of second - hand housing increased for two consecutive weeks, with a 4% increase this week. Year - on - year, it declined for seven weeks, with a 2% decline this week. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen had different growth and decline situations [2]. - In second - tier cities, the transaction area of second - hand housing decreased by 3% week - on - week. Year - on - year, it declined by 6% [2]. - In third - tier cities, the transaction area of second - hand housing increased by 2% week - on - week. Year - on - year, it increased by 2% [2]. 3.3. Overall New Housing - This week, the new housing transaction area in 38 cities was 2.02 million square meters, with a 7% week - on - week increase and a 6% year - on - year decline, having declined for seven weeks. From July 1 - 24, the cumulative year - on - year decline was 16% [3]. 3.4. New Housing by City Tier - In first - tier cities, the new housing transaction area decreased for three consecutive weeks, with a 3% decline this week. Year - on - year, it declined for seven weeks, with a 22% decline this week [3]. - In second - tier cities, the new housing transaction area increased by 8% week - on - week. Year - on - year, it declined by 4% [4]. - In third - tier cities, the new housing transaction area increased by 16% week - on - week. Year - on - year, it increased by 3% [4]. 3.5. Key City Observations - In first - tier cities, both second - hand and new housing weekly transactions declined year - on - year for seven weeks. For second - hand housing, Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen had different week - on - week and year - on - year performance. For new housing, the same was true, with different trends in each city [25]. - In Hangzhou, the second - hand housing transaction area was flat week - on - week, and the new housing transaction area increased by 18% week - on - week [26]. - In Chengdu, the second - hand housing transaction area increased by 5% week - on - week, and the new housing transaction area was flat week - on - week [26]. 3.6. Housing Price Observation - From July 14 - 20, the weekly listed prices of second - hand houses in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen decreased by 0.10%, 0.39%, and 0.16% respectively week - on - week. Compared with the week before the "924" policy last year, they also decreased [55].

Group 1 - The report highlights that Fitch has downgraded the outlook for the US industry by 25% due to rising uncertainties, slowing economic growth, and expectations that interest rates will remain high [1][20]. - The report predicts that the default rates for US high-yield bonds and leveraged loans will reach 4%-4.5% and 5.5%-6% respectively this year [1][20]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the TAMAMA technology index has risen to 35.8, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index stands at 50.3, indicating high valuation levels [1][20]. Group 2 - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio has increased to 38.97, approaching its historical high of 44.19 recorded in December 1999, suggesting potential overvaluation [1][20]. - The report indicates that various sectors within the US stock market, including finance, consumer, communication services, and industrials, are facing selling pressure due to high valuation levels and economic uncertainties [1][20]. - The report notes that the Nasdaq index, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, and TAMAMA technology index are likely to face downward pressure in the medium term [1][20]. Group 3 - The report mentions that the Nikkei 225 index has continued to rebound, but is expected to face further declines due to tight monetary policy and economic pressures in Japan [1][20]. - Emerging market indices such as Brazil's IBOVESPA, Mexico's MXX, and India's SENSEX30 are anticipated to experience adjustments due to economic fundamentals and policy uncertainties [1][20]. - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to show further divergence, with high-positioned assets likely to face corrections while structurally undervalued assets may present mid-term opportunities [1][40].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [6] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, Freeport's copper production increased by 10.9% quarter-on-quarter to 436,800 tons, while net profit attributable to common shareholders surged by 119.3% to $772 million [1][8] - The average realized price for copper in Q2 2025 was $4.54 per pound, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.3% [1][8] - The consolidated average unit net cash cost for Freeport's copper mines in Q2 2025 was $1.13 per pound, a decrease of 34.7% year-on-year and 45.4% quarter-on-quarter [2][3] - Gold production in Q2 2025 was 317,000 ounces, a year-on-year decrease of 28.4% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.5% [4][7] - The total sales revenue for Q2 2025 was $7.582 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 32.4% [8][24] Summary by Sections Production and Sales - Q2 2025 copper production was 963 million pounds (436,800 tons), down 5.2% year-on-year but up 10.9% quarter-on-quarter [1][23] - Q2 2025 copper sales were 1,016 million pounds (460,800 tons), up 9.1% year-on-year and 16.5% quarter-on-quarter [1][23] - Q2 2025 gold sales were 522,000 ounces, up from 361,000 ounces in Q2 2024 [5][23] - Q2 2025 molybdenum production was 22 million pounds, a year-on-year increase of 10.0% [7][23] Financial Performance - Q2 2025 operating income was $2.432 billion, up 18.7% year-on-year and 86.6% quarter-on-quarter [8][24] - Q2 2025 net income was $1.547 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 95.1% [8][24] - Q2 2025 capital expenditures totaled $1.261 billion, with $600 million allocated to major mining projects [9][24] Cost Structure - Q2 2025 unit site production and delivery costs for copper were $2.71 per pound, up 5.9% year-on-year and 4.6% quarter-on-quarter [3][23] - The expected average unit net cash cost for 2025 is projected to be $1.55 per pound, with Q3 2025 estimated at $1.59 per pound [2][3] Project Updates - Freeport is advancing several projects in the U.S. and Chile, including potential expansions in Arizona and significant resource evaluations in Chile [17][19] - The new smelter in Indonesia commenced operations in Q2 2025, slightly ahead of schedule [20][22]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [10] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, copper production decreased by 11% year-on-year to 173,000 tons, primarily due to reduced output in Chile, despite an increase in Peru [2] - The average realized price for copper in H1 2025 was $4.36 per pound, reflecting a 2% increase year-on-year [3] - Iron ore production in Q2 2025 was 15.9 million tons, up 2% year-on-year, driven by strong performance from Minas-Rio [4] - The average realized price for iron ore in H1 2025 was $89 per wet ton, down 4% year-on-year [5] - Manganese ore production surged by 109% year-on-year to 746,000 tons in Q2 2025, recovering from previous disruptions [6] - Platinum Group Metals (PGM) production fell by 47% year-on-year to 492,000 ounces, impacted by reduced procurement and operational disruptions [7] - The average realized price for PGM in H1 2025 was $1,506 per ounce, a 4% increase year-on-year [7] - Coking coal production dropped by 51% year-on-year to 2.1 million tons in Q2 2025, primarily due to mine closures [8] - The average realized price for HCC coking coal in H1 2025 was $172 per ton, down 37% year-on-year [8] - Nickel production decreased by 5% year-on-year to 9,500 tons in Q2 2025, with an average realized price of $6.28 per pound, down 8% year-on-year [12][13] - Diamond production fell by 36% year-on-year to 4.1 million carats in Q2 2025, with an average realized price of $155 per carat, down 5% year-on-year [13][14] Production Guidance - The copper production guidance for 2025 remains unchanged at 690,000 to 750,000 tons, with unit costs expected to be approximately 151 cents per pound [15][26] - Iron ore production guidance for 2025 is maintained at 57 to 61 million tons, with unit costs around $36 per ton [16][26] - Diamond production guidance for 2025 is unchanged at 20 to 23 million carats, with unit costs around $94 per carat [17][18] - Coking coal production guidance remains at 10 to 12 million tons, with unit costs under review due to temporary mine closures [19][26] - Nickel production guidance for 2025 is unchanged at 37,000 to 39,000 tons, with unit costs around 505 cents per pound [21][22]