交银国际研究 宏观策略 2025 年 5 月 7 日 中国宏观 一揽子金融政策简评：三大金融部门联手稳预期、提信心 2025 年 5 月 7 日，"五一"假期后，国务院新闻办公室宣布一揽子重磅金融政 策，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证监会负责人出席会议，并 介绍具体措施。本次金融政策支持举措的落地也是今年 4 月中央政治局会议精 神的传达和落实（参见此前报告），会议提出适时降准降息、创设新的结构性 货币政策工具，以及一系列稳预期、提信心的具体举措均实现了快速的落实。 本次金融政策组合拳覆盖货币政策、资本市场、房地产市场以及实体经济等多 个领域。从政策内容看，既有短期纾困举措，也有长期制度安排；既有总量政 策，也有结构性工具，形成了全方位、多层次的政策支持体系。预计本次政策 组合将对稳定市场预期、提振市场信心、支持实体经济发展产生积极影响。同 时，中美经贸关系出现积极转变，双方重启谈判渠道，利好提振市场风险情 绪，为港股市场带来正面催化。具体来看： 中国人民银行：降准、降息，精准宽松 中国人民银行行长潘功胜宣布全面降准、降息组合拳。此次降准 0.5 个百分点 释放长期流动性约 1 万亿元人民币（下同 ...

交银国际研究 宏观策略 2025 年 5 月 7 日 全球宏观 美元走弱背景下的亚洲货币异动简析 美元弱势背景下，亚洲货币快速升值影响几何？ 亚洲货币快速升值也暴露出当前美元信用环境受损下的流动性挑战。美元整体 疲软，推动亚洲货币升值，属于全球资金流动和汇率联动的宏观背景，也意味 着亚洲某些币种显著升值并非孤立事件，而是区域性现象。对于亚洲外向型经 济体而言，在关税政策不确定性增加的背景下，本币快速升值将产生双重影 响：一方面，本币升值在一定程度上减少了资金外流风险，但外贸挑战或会进 一步加大。另一方面，本币升值会导致以美元计价的海外资产净值受损，特别 是对于银行、保险等采取"本币负债、美元资产"结构的金融机构，本币快速 升值将导致其资本充足率承压，对金融体系稳定性有潜在影响。 与此同时，这一现象并非仅限于亚洲经济体，全球范围内采用类似"本币负 债、美元资产"配置结构的机构都将面临相同挑战。而这些机构面临两难选 择：寻求对冲美元敞口风险（通过远期卖出美元、购入本币）；抑或主动削减 美元资产敞口（抛售美债等美元资产），切换至其他资产。无论何种选择，都 或将一定程度上带来全球金融市场流动性波动。而当前受美国利率和 ...

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 5 月 7 日 今日焦点 | 小米集团 | | 1810 HK | | --- | --- | --- | | 人车家全生态，领跑中国智造，首予买入 | | 评级: 买入 | | 收盘价: 港元 53.10 | 目标价: 港元 60.00 | 潜在涨幅: +13.0% | | 童钰枫 | Carrie.Tong@bocomgroup.com | | 小米作为中国科技行业核心标的，也是自主创新和国产替代先锋，对贸 易不确定因素的直接敞口较小。我们认为，之前小米配售有利于其核心 业务扩展，长期利好公司股价，近期股价回调或提供买入机会。围绕「 人车家全生态」战略，公司业务呈四大亮点：1）智能手机高端化持续突 破，海外市场空间广阔；2）小米汽车精准打造爆品，关注后续产能情况 ；3）积极加码大家电，拓展 AIoT 线下和海外渠道；4）互联网收入有望 借助高端化和海外拓展提升变现能力。 存储器成本下降对智能手机毛利率的正面影响或在 1H25 集中释放。智 能汽车产能继续释放，或在 2025 年扭亏为盈。 首予买入，目标价 60 港元。我们预测 2025/26 年小米总收入分别同比增 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - The report highlights that 京能清洁能源 (579 HK) experienced a slight year-on-year decline in profit of 2.7% in Q1 2025, primarily due to one-off project impacts. However, the company's gross profit increased by 11% year-on-year, driven by new wind and solar installations [1] - The company announced a new dividend policy for 2025-2027, with payout ratios set at 42%, 44%, and 46% of distributable profits, significantly exceeding market expectations. The expected dividends per share for 2025-2027 have been raised to HKD 0.18, 0.21, and 0.24 respectively [1] - The valuation for 京能清洁能源 has been adjusted to a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.5 times for 2025, up from 5.4 times, with the target price increased to HKD 3.03, indicating a potential upside of 27.8% [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The report provides insights into the performance of major global indices, with the 恒指 (Hang Seng Index) closing at 22,505, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 11.88%. In contrast, the 上 A (Shanghai A-share Index) has seen a decline of 2.19% year-to-date [2] - Key commodity prices are highlighted, with Brent crude oil at USD 61.33, down 17.81% over the past three months, while gold futures have increased by 12.55% [3] - The report notes that the overall revenue for 碧桂园服务 (6098 HK) is projected to grow, with a core business revenue share expected to rise to approximately 87% in 2024, while non-owner value-added services will account for only about 1.6% of total revenue [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, 京能清洁能源 (579 HK), with a target price of HKD 3.03, indicating a potential upside of 26.8% from the current price of HKD 2.39 [1][8][16]. Core Insights - The company's first-quarter performance was impacted by one-time items, resulting in a slight year-on-year decline in profit of 2.7% to RMB 1.293 billion. However, the gross profit increased by 11%, driven by new wind and solar installations [2][8]. - A new dividend policy was announced, significantly exceeding market expectations, with payout ratios for 2025-2027 set at 42%, 44%, and 46% of distributable profits, respectively. This is an increase from the previous guidance of 33%, 30%, and 27% [8]. - The company is expected to enhance its market capitalization and liquidity by entering the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which could attract more institutional investors and serve as a catalyst for short-term valuation improvement [8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 20,446 million in 2023, RMB 20,562 million in 2024, RMB 21,883 million in 2025, RMB 23,666 million in 2026, and RMB 25,408 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [7][11]. - Net profit is forecasted to grow from RMB 3,150 million in 2023 to RMB 4,550 million in 2027, with corresponding earnings per share increasing from RMB 0.37 to RMB 0.54 [7][18]. - The company’s dividend per share is expected to rise from RMB 0.14 in 2023 to RMB 0.24 in 2027, with dividend yields projected at 7.8% and 10.6% for 2025 and 2027, respectively [7][8]. Operational Data - The total installed capacity is projected to increase from 14,500 MW in 2023 to 27,486 MW by 2027, with wind and solar power contributing significantly to this growth [10][11]. - The company aims to achieve a wind and solar power share of 81.2% in its total capacity by 2027, indicating a strategic focus on renewable energy sources [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 8.36, indicating a potential upside of 20.6% from the current price of HKD 6.93 [1][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the decline in gross profit margin is stabilizing, and the proportion of revenue from third-party projects is increasing. The sustainable third-party revenue ratio is expected to reach 98.9% in 2024, which is one of the highest in the industry [6][10]. - The company is projected to maintain a gross profit margin of approximately 18% from 2025 to 2027, with a revenue growth forecast of 3.2% in 2024, reaching RMB 43.993 billion [6][10]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong cash position, with approximately RMB 16.8 billion in net cash, equivalent to about HKD 5.04 per share, which could enhance its ability to pursue acquisitions or increase dividends when market conditions improve [6][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 42,612 million in 2023, RMB 43,993 million in 2024, and RMB 47,344 million in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.0%, 3.2%, and 7.6% respectively [5][10]. - The core earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 1.17 in 2023, declining to RMB 0.90 in 2024, and then gradually recovering to RMB 1.01 by 2027 [5][10]. - The company’s net profit is projected to increase from RMB 292 million in 2023 to RMB 3,248 million by 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [10][11]. Market Position - The company has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 22.43 billion and has shown a year-to-date price change of 25.54% [3][10]. - The report indicates that the company is diversifying its revenue streams, reducing reliance on related parties, which helps mitigate the impact of declining gross margins [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Life Insurance (2628 HK) with a target price of HKD 19.00, indicating a potential upside of 35.9% from the current closing price of HKD 13.98 [1][2][10]. Core Insights - The company's profit and net asset growth outperformed peers, primarily due to effective asset-liability management and strategic interest rate choices [6][12]. - The growth in premium income is mainly driven by renewal premiums, with a notable increase in the proportion of floating income products [6][12]. - The new business value growth is lower than peers, reflecting a strategic shift towards long-term bonds and a modest expansion of short-payment products [6][12]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 405,040 million in 2023 to RMB 561,192 million by 2027, with a peak growth rate of 30.5% in 2024 [5][12]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 51,184 million in 2023 to RMB 111,687 million by 2027, with a significant jump of 108.9% in 2024 [5][12]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 1.81 in 2023 to RMB 3.95 by 2027, with a notable decline of 23.2% in 2023 followed by recovery in subsequent years [5][12]. - **Investment Returns**: - The annualized net and total investment returns for Q1 2025 are projected at 2.60% and 2.75%, respectively, reflecting a decline compared to previous periods [6][12]. Business Segment Insights - **Insurance Services**: - Insurance service income is expected to stabilize around RMB 212,324 million in 2025, with a slight growth trajectory thereafter [12]. - **Investment Income**: - Investment income is projected to reach RMB 300,609 million in 2025, showing a decrease from previous years due to rising bond yields [12]. - **New Business Value**: - New business value is anticipated to decline to RMB 30,564 million in 2025, reflecting a decrease in growth rates compared to previous years [8][12]. Market Position - The company has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 909.65 billion and has shown resilience in maintaining a competitive edge in the insurance sector [4][12].

| 52周高位 (港元) | 19.30 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 8.37 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 33,033.78 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 1.82 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (22.34) | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 11.98 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 交银国际研究 公司更新 | 新能源 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | 8.48 | 港元 | 11.30↓ | +33.3% | | | 福莱特玻璃 (6865 HK) | | | | | | 1 季度大幅扭亏超预期；维持买入 | 个股评级 | | --- | | 买入 | 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 4/25 -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 6865 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 文昊, CPA bob.wen@ ...

| 保险 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 27.40 | 港元 36.00 | +31.4% | | | 新华保险 (1336 HK) | | | | | | 交银国际研究 公司更新 资产、负债两端增长强劲，需关注净资产下降；维持买入 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 71,547 | 132,555 | 131,771 | 136,587 | 140,751 | | 同比增长 (%) | -33.8 | 85.3 | -0.6 | 3.7 | 3.0 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 8,712 | 26,229 | 23,506 | 24,875 | 26,066 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 2.79 | 8.41 | 7.53 | 7.97 | 8.35 | | 同比增 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][6]. Core Insights - The company's first-quarter profit decreased by 21.9% year-on-year to 1.98 billion RMB, primarily due to increased operating expenses and a reduction in profit from the divestment of its thermal power business [6][7]. - Revenue growth was limited to 0.9% year-on-year, with wind power generation increasing by 4.4%, but offset by a decline in electricity prices [6][8]. - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 7.81, reflecting a 28% potential upside from the current price of HKD 6.10, maintaining a price-to-earnings ratio of 9 times for 2025 [6][15]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 29,631 million RMB in 2023, increasing to 34,510 million RMB in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10% from 2024 to 2025 [5][18]. - Net profit is expected to grow from 6,157 million RMB in 2023 to 6,758 million RMB in 2025, with a net profit margin of around 19.6% in 2025 [5][19]. - The company plans to increase its installed capacity significantly, with projections of 47,143 MW by 2025, driven by growth in wind and solar energy [9][18]. Operational Performance - The average utilization hours for wind power in the first quarter were 585 hours, a decrease of 55 hours year-on-year, attributed to reduced wind resources in certain regions [6][8]. - The company added 36.25 MW of new installed capacity in the first quarter, with wind and solar contributing 34.7 MW and 1.5 MW, respectively [6][9]. - The overall curtailment rate for the company is approximately 4%, with expectations for a slight acceleration in installation progress leading up to a policy deadline on June 1 [6][9].