Economic Trends - The U.S. economy has shown signs of weakening, with hard data beginning to align with previous soft data trends, confirming earlier conclusions about a cyclical downturn starting in 2025[2] - The PMI is below 50% and overall economic conditions are deteriorating, indicating stagflation similar to the situation in 1985[4] Currency and Market Performance - The U.S. dollar has depreciated over 10% in the last five months, dropping from a historical percentile of 86% to 57%[2] - Despite the dollar's decline, the U.S. stock market has reached new highs, which was previously underestimated in terms of resilience[2] Historical Context - Historical analysis shows that during similar periods of dollar depreciation (over 11% in five months), the stock market generally experienced gains, particularly in 1985, 2009, and 2010[3] - The current market conditions resemble those of 1985 and 2002, where the stock market did not experience significant declines prior to the dollar's depreciation, affecting subsequent rebounds[4] Future Outlook - The continuation of the current trend of a declining dollar and rising stock market will depend on economic recovery and policy measures, such as interest rate cuts or quantitative easing[4] - The stock market's equity risk premium (ERP) has returned to negative territory, indicating low value for future rebounds compared to historical standards[4] Inflation Concerns - Input inflation is expected to rise due to the dollar's weakness, with predictions that CPI will exceed 3% by the end of the year if monthly increases remain around 0.2%[8] - Recent data quality issues in CPI calculations have raised concerns about the accuracy of inflation metrics, with estimation rates increasing from 10% to 30%[7] Policy Implications - The potential for tax cuts and monetary easing in the second half of the year could significantly impact inflation and market dynamics[6] - The balance of Trump's aggressive policies and their effects on market perceptions will be crucial in determining future market stability[6]

7 月流动性会更松吗？ 2025 年 06 月 29 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：张云杰 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525020002 经济动态跟踪 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhangyunjie@mszq.com ➢ 6 月流动性进入年内"最松"状态，展望 7 月，流动性有哪些关注点？ 第一，参考近年规律，7 月市场往往会迎来"自发性"宽松。近年来，经济运行 基本遵循一季度"开门红"，随后增长动能渐趋平缓的规律，财政、金融更多靠前 发力。因此在 7 月份，政府债和信贷需求很难构成流动性"冲击"。 第二，央行对于经济的判断，虽然还不具有"紧迫性"，但已开始关注下行风险。 往后看，重点关注关税扰动下的制造业景气波折。经验表明，每当制造业 PMI 连 续 3 个月（或以上）跌入收缩区间，资金面往往会转松，有时甚至会触发总量货 币政策调整。再加上近期美联储降息预期"再起"，国内货币宽松的空间随之打 开。 第三，在工具选择上，货币政策更加注重灵活性和时效度，短期内重启国债买卖 的必要性不高。7 月并非财政"大月"，此外，5 月以来央 ...

计算机周报 20250629 计算机行业 2025Q2 业绩前瞻 2025 年 06 月 29 日 ⚫ 市场回顾 本周（6.23-6.27）沪深 300 指数上涨 1.95%，中小板指数上涨 2.55%，创业板 指数上涨 5.69%，计算机（中信）板块上涨 8.09%。板块个股涨幅前五名分别 为：京天利、京北方、指南针、优博讯、卫宁健康；跌幅前五名分别为：易联 众、柏楚电子、天地数码、川大智胜、任子行。 ⚫ 行业要闻 ⚫ 公司动态 ⚫ 本周观点 AI 应用与金融科技的新时代已经到来，AI agent 引领的软件大革命正处于从 0 到 1 的拐点，AI 应用无疑是贯穿未来的最核心主线，与此同时新一轮金融科技 创新机遇打开帷幕，国产算力与卫星互联网均进入规模落地元年。 考虑各个细分领域以及公司的具体情况，建议关注：1）国内 AI 算力：寒武 纪、海光信息等；2）国内 AI 应用：海康威视、金山办公、科大讯飞、萤石网 络、中科创达、金桥信息、卓易信息、佳发教育等。3）稳定币产业链：中科金 财、金证股份、朗新科技、众安在线、连连数字、中国光大控股、宇信科技、 天阳科技、京北方等；4）跨境支付产业链：新大陆、新国都、拉 ...

➢ 汽油价差收窄，烯烃价差扩大。截至 6 月 27 日，1）炼油：NYMEX 汽油和 取暖油期货结算价和 WTI 期货结算价差分别为 21.39/28.60 美元/桶，周环比变 化-7.79%/-8.67%。2）化工：乙烯/丙烯/甲苯和石脑油价差为 281/231/160 美 元/吨，较上周变化+50.10%/+97.03%/+86.04%；FDY/POY/DTY 价差为 1544/1344/2519 元/吨，较上周变化+14.55%/+18.12%/+6.61%。 ➢ 投资建议：我们推荐以下两条主线：1）油价有底，石油企业业绩确定性高， 叠加高分红特点，估值有望提升，建议关注抗风险能力强且资源量优势强的中国 石油、产量持续增长且桶油成本低的中国海油、高分红一体化公司中国石化；2） 国内鼓励油气增储上产，建议关注产量处于成长期的中曼石油、新天然气。 石化周报 以伊官宣停火，原油暂时回归基本面定价 2025 年 06 月 29 日 ➢ 以伊官宣停火，原油暂时回归基本面定价。6 月 23 日，特朗普在社交媒体 平台上表示，以色列和伊朗将于 24 日 0 时起停火，6 月 24 日，伊朗最高国家安 全委员会声明，宣 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the electric equipment and new energy sectors, including CATL, Keda, and others [5]. Core Insights - The electric equipment and new energy sector saw a weekly increase of 5.11%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, with the new energy vehicle index rising by 6.53% [1]. - In the photovoltaic sector, domestic installations reached 197.85 GW from January to May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 149.97% [3][30]. - The report highlights a significant investment growth in power grid projects, with a 19.8% year-on-year increase in investment from January to May 2025 [4][44]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - Xiaomi launched its first luxury high-performance SUV, the YU7, featuring advanced design and technology, including a 22000rpm motor and a 3.23-second acceleration time [2][10]. - The vehicle's interior is designed for comfort, with high-quality materials and advanced noise reduction features [10][15]. Photovoltaic Sector - The report notes a substantial increase in photovoltaic installations, with May 2025 alone contributing 92.92 GW, marking a 388.03% year-on-year increase [3][30]. - The report anticipates a potential decline in new installations due to changes in grid connection policies and market pricing [3][30]. - The photovoltaic supply chain is experiencing price declines, particularly in silicon materials and components [33][34]. Electric Equipment and Industrial Control - National statistics indicate that the average utilization of power generation equipment was 1249 hours from January to May 2025, a decrease of 132 hours year-on-year [4][44]. - Investment in power grid projects reached 2040 billion yuan, reflecting a 19.8% increase compared to the previous year [4][44]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring key companies such as CATL, Keda, and others for potential investment opportunities [4][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the steel sector, highlighting specific companies within the industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that iron water remains at a high level, with strong cost support. Although there is a long-term downward trend in iron water, the short-term decline is relatively slow. The supply of iron ore has not yet been released, solidifying the cost bottom in the short term [3][4]. - The overall production and inventory levels of steel are at low points year-on-year, with no significant supply-demand contradictions. The profitability of steel companies is expected to recover due to the optimization of crude steel supply and the gradual release of new iron ore production capacity [3][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of June 27, steel prices showed mixed trends, with rebar prices at 3,090 CNY/ton (up 20 CNY), high line prices at 3,300 CNY/ton (up 30 CNY), hot-rolled prices stable at 3,240 CNY/ton, cold-rolled prices down 20 CNY to 3,490 CNY/ton, and medium plate prices down 20 CNY to 3,280 CNY/ton [1][10][11]. Production and Inventory - The total production of five major steel varieties reached 8.81 million tons, an increase of 124,800 tons week-on-week. The apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 2.1991 million tons, up 0.72 million tons from the previous week [2][3]. Profitability - The report estimates that the gross profit for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel changed by +1 CNY/ton, +5 CNY/ton, and -21 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week. Electric arc furnace steel saw a decrease of 6 CNY/ton in gross profit [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. General steel sector: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel 2. Special steel sector: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. 3. Pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel - Suggested to pay attention to high-temperature alloy stocks: Fushun Special Steel [3][4]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Baosteel (600019.SH): EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.34 CNY, PE at 19, rated as "Buy" - Hualing Steel (000932.SZ): EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.29 CNY, PE at 15, rated as "Buy" - Nanjing Steel (600282.SH): EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.37 CNY, PE at 11, rated as "Buy" [3].

Group 1: Profit Trends - In the first five months of 2025, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 27,204.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%[1] - The profit growth rate for industrial enterprises dropped sharply from 3.0% in April to -9.1% in May, indicating a significant impact from tariffs[1] - The decline in revenue profit margin contributed approximately 10.2 percentage points to the profit growth rate decline in May[1] Group 2: Cost and Revenue Factors - Rising costs due to tariffs have led to a decrease in profit margins, particularly affecting downstream industries[2] - Companies are showing a weakened willingness to restock, with both revenue and finished goods inventory growth rates declining in May[2] Group 3: Industry-Specific Impacts - Profit growth rates for upstream, midstream, and downstream industries in May were -21.7%, 3.5%, and -13.3% respectively, indicating increased pressure on upstream and downstream sectors[3] - Downstream industries, particularly entertainment products, textiles, and food manufacturing, experienced significant profit declines of -27.0%, -18.3%, and -7.0% respectively[3] Group 4: Enterprise Type Performance - State-owned enterprises saw a profit decline of -18.1% in May, while private enterprises experienced a smaller decline of 0.8%[6] - The larger impact on state-owned enterprises is attributed to their inability to quickly adjust supply chains in response to tariff changes[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the AI healthcare sector [5] Core Insights - The AI healthcare industry is experiencing high demand and significant growth, with Ant Group's new AI health application "AQ" addressing essential healthcare needs and connecting over 5,000 hospitals and nearly 1 million doctors [1][3] - Shenzhen has established a comprehensive AI healthcare application ecosystem, aiming to enhance clinical health management for a population exceeding 10 million [2] - Ant Group is actively exploring new paths in AI healthcare, collaborating with major medical institutions and enhancing its AI product offerings to create a three-dimensional service system that integrates healthcare providers, doctors, and patients [3] Summary by Sections - **Event Overview**: Ant Group launched the "AQ" AI health application, which offers a wide range of AI functionalities and connects users with extensive healthcare resources [1] - **Market Trends**: The AI healthcare sector is witnessing increasing demand, with forums discussing the challenges and strategies for sustainable AI healthcare ecosystems [1] - **Strategic Collaborations**: Ant Group has signed agreements with medical institutions to innovate AI healthcare services and has upgraded its AI product system to improve service delivery [3] - **Investment Recommendations**: The report highlights the rapid development of China's AI healthcare industry, emphasizing the potential for breakthroughs in chronic disease management and the integration of smart hardware [4]

Group 1: Equity Quantitative Analysis - The equity market risk factor returns have normalized in H1 2025, with small-cap and momentum factors performing prominently. The net profit of the entire A-share market has turned positive year-on-year for the first time since Q2 2023, indicating a significant recovery in the industrial sector. The TMT sector is expected to continue its growth in the second half of the year, with some cyclical industries likely to see a performance inflection point [3][14][23] - The technical analysis suggests that the broad market index may continue in a volatile pattern, with a focus on breakout directions. The overall ranking of indices is as follows: CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > CSI 300 > CSI 2000 [3][39][41] Group 2: Interest Rate Quantitative Analysis - The 10-year government bond yield has dropped below 2% and stabilized at a low level of 1.6%-1.7%. The recovery in economic activity and credit impulses has suppressed further declines in interest rates. The current willingness to hold inflation assets has weakened again, compounded by negative ROE in the real estate sector and low leverage in high ROE industries, leading to a lack of upward momentum in interest rates [3][49][63] - The future direction of interest rates will depend on the demand for funds from high ROE and high-leverage industries, which are currently lacking [3][70][75] Group 3: Gold Quantitative Analysis - Gold is viewed as a hedge against risk, with current fiscal factors dominating its price movements. The geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainties globally are expected to support gold prices. The technical analysis indicates that gold has consolidated and accumulated support, with a target price set at $3,885 per ounce [3][81][87] Group 4: Industry Quantitative Analysis - The rotation speed among industries is expected to accelerate, with opportunities becoming more dispersed. Long-term investments in growth industries are anticipated to yield higher expected returns. The lifecycle model indicates that overall growth in primary industries is insufficient, with growth concentrated in tertiary industries, particularly in the basic chemical sector [4][14][23] - The TMT sector is projected to continue its growth trajectory, while industries such as basic chemicals and building materials are expected to stabilize and recover due to ongoing fiscal support for infrastructure projects [23][31][37]

Group 1: Policy Overview - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" primarily focuses on fiscal policy, with no intention of fiscal tightening from the Trump administration, as previously mentioned in reports[3]. - The bill includes tax cuts expected to increase the deficit by $3.8 trillion over ten years, extending and expanding key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)[4]. - Defense spending is set to increase by $144 billion over the next decade, with significant allocations for shipbuilding and missile defense[4]. Group 2: Fiscal Impact - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" will increase the deficit by $500 billion by 2026, raising the deficit-to-GDP ratio from 5.5% to 7.0%[4]. - Over the next ten years, the total deficit is expected to increase by $2.4 trillion, leading to an overall debt increase of $3 trillion, which could rise to $5 trillion if made permanent[4]. - The bill's provisions will result in a projected deficit of approximately 6.8% of GDP, potentially increasing to 7.8% if made permanent[4]. Group 3: Legislative Challenges - The bill faces significant hurdles in reconciling differences between the House and Senate, particularly regarding the SALT deduction cap and Medicaid cuts[5]. - The Senate's version proposes a higher debt ceiling of $5 trillion compared to the House's $4 trillion, indicating a divergence in fiscal strategy[5]. - Key disagreements include the treatment of temporary tax provisions, with the Senate favoring the permanentization of certain tax cuts[5]. Group 4: International Taxation - The controversial 889 clause aims to impose taxes on foreign entities benefiting from U.S. tax cuts, reflecting a shift from tariffs to international tax negotiations[8]. - The clause could generate an estimated $120 billion in additional tax revenue over the next decade, averaging $12 billion per year[11]. - The implementation of the 889 clause is set for January 1, 2027, but could be avoided if "violating countries" adjust their tax practices[11].