Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for companies such as Funiu Co., Ltd. and Shenneng Co., Ltd. while cautiously recommending China General Nuclear Power and Anhui Energy [4][21]. Core Viewpoints - In May, the total electricity consumption reached 809.6 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.4%. The first industry saw an increase of 8.4%, the second industry 2.1%, the third industry 9.4%, and urban and rural residents' consumption 9.6% [2][22]. - The report highlights that coal prices are expected to remain low, benefiting thermal power generation, which is anticipated to improve performance in Q2. Companies are actively investing in wind power and cogeneration assets for long-term growth potential [4][19]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The electricity sector underperformed the broader market, with the public utility sector closing at 2355.40 points, down 1.13%, and the electricity sub-sector at 3131.64 points, down 1.31% [1][8]. - Among the electricity sub-sectors, photovoltaic generation fell by 1.57%, wind power by 1.28%, while thermal services rose by 2.08% [1][13]. Industry Data Tracking - The average price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region was 663.00 RMB/ton, with no change week-on-week [48]. - The report notes that the electricity market is experiencing a decline in coal and gas prices, with the average transaction price for coal in Guangdong dropping by 28.43% [69]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with stable performance and growth potential, particularly in thermal power and hydropower sectors, such as Changjiang Electric Power and Sichuan Investment Energy [4][20]. - It also suggests monitoring companies involved in asset restructuring and mergers, as these are expected to gain traction this year [20].

Core Insights - The insurance industry is expected to experience a positive trend in business quality by 2025, with life insurance showing continuous improvement in new business value (NBV) and the individual insurance channel stabilizing [4][22][23] - The property insurance sector is projected to maintain steady growth in liabilities, with underwriting profitability continuing to improve, particularly in the auto insurance segment driven by new energy vehicles [2][68] - Investment strategies are shifting towards equity investments, which are anticipated to become a core variable for investment returns, supported by long-term capital entering the market [3][4] Life Insurance - New business premiums are expected to remain under pressure, but the overall premium structure is likely to improve, with NBV continuing to show positive growth [22][23] - The individual insurance channel is stabilizing, with a focus on enhancing channel quality through the "reporting and operation integration" strategy, which is expected to lead to improved performance [29][30] - The proportion of participating insurance is anticipated to increase as companies respond to potential interest rate risks and seek to enhance their product offerings [51][54] Property Insurance - The auto insurance segment is expected to grow steadily, with a projected annual growth rate of approximately 4-6%, driven by new energy vehicles [2][68] - Non-auto insurance is expected to grow at a faster rate than auto insurance, supported by policy-driven and innovative business models [2] - Underwriting profitability is improving due to better claims management and cost control, with a notable improvement in the combined operating ratio (COR) [2][3] Investment Strategies - Long-term capital is expected to enter the market, with equity investments contributing to greater flexibility in returns [3][4] - The investment portfolio structure is shifting towards a higher proportion of equities, while maintaining a high level of bond investments [3] - Under IFRS 9, the investment portfolio is likely to see an increase in other comprehensive income (OCI), focusing on high-dividend and high-return assets for certainty [3] Embedded Value - The NBV is expected to continue improving, with a focus on asset-liability matching capabilities among leading insurance companies [3][4] - The shift towards participating insurance and improved cost control in channels is likely to mitigate the negative impacts of long-term investment return assumptions [3][4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively seizing opportunities during stock price corrections, with a focus on companies like China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, New China Life, and China Life in the A-share market, as well as Sunshine Insurance, China Property & Casualty, and China Taiping in the Hong Kong market [4]

石化周报 地缘冲突持续发酵，油价或高位宽幅震荡 2025 年 06 月 21 日 ➢ 地缘冲突持续发酵，油价或高位宽幅震荡。6 月 16 日，因伊朗请求卡塔尔、 沙特和阿曼要求特朗普施压以色列促使以色列停火，叠加 G7 集团领导人呼吁以 色列和伊朗缓和局势，市场对地缘持续性的预期有所减弱，布伦特油价最低回落 至 71 美元/桶以下。然而，由于多重因素的影响，以伊冲突目前看不到短期结束 的迹象，油价本周依然呈现上涨趋势。时间线上来看，美国方面多次呼吁伊朗签 署限制其核计划的协议，在 6 月 17 日特朗普在社交平台上发文称"伊朗本应签 署我让他们签署的'协议'"后，6 月 18 日美国扩大了其在中东地区的军事部 署；而伊朗态度相对坚决，同日其表示不接受压力下达成的和平；6 月 19 日， 美国表示将在未来两周内决定美国是否介入以色列和伊朗的冲突；6 月 21 日最 新消息，伊朗表明愿意在以色列"停止侵略"后考虑通过外交途径解决伊核问题， 而特朗普表示"可能支持以伊停火，但让以色列停下来很难，也许美国没必要打 击伊朗"。从美国的表态来看，以伊冲突短期或仍将持续，此外，伊拉克表示近 几天已有 50 架以色列战机侵犯 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the coal industry, including Jin控煤业, 陕西煤业, 中国神华, 中煤能源, 华阳股份, 山煤国际, 新集能源, 兖矿能源, and 淮北矿业 [2][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the upcoming peak season for coal prices, predicting a price increase due to rising daily consumption by power plants and a tight supply situation [1][6]. - In May 2025, China's coal production increased year-on-year, but there are signs of a contraction in output due to stricter environmental inspections and reduced production in some regions [1][6]. - Coal imports in May 2025 decreased significantly, with a year-on-year drop of 7.78 million tons (-17.8%) and a month-on-month decrease of 1.79 million tons (-4.7%) [1][6]. - The report anticipates that domestic coal prices will remain stable in the short term, with a potential peak price of over 750 yuan/ton expected by mid-August 2025 [1][6]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The report highlights an acceleration in daily coal consumption by power plants, with a noted increase in thermal power generation growth [1][6]. - The report indicates that the coal price at the pithead has slightly increased, while port prices have remained stable [1][6]. Market Performance - As of June 20, 2025, the coal sector experienced a weekly decline of 0.7%, slightly underperforming compared to the broader market indices [11][14]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the average coal price in Shanxi is 538 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 2.91% from the previous week [40]. - The report also mentions that the average price of coking coal in Shanxi remains stable at 1058 yuan/ton [40]. Company Dynamics - The report provides insights into the performance of key companies, with Jin瑞矿业 showing the highest weekly increase of 6.98% as of June 20, 2025 [17]. - Conversely, 大有能源 experienced the largest decline, dropping by 6.11% during the same period [17].

Supply Side - The steel industry is expected to undergo a new round of capacity clearance due to the urgent need for capacity regulation, product structure optimization, and corporate restructuring as domestic crude steel consumption peaks [1] - New regulations in 2025 will encourage companies to transition towards high value-added, low-carbon, and intelligent production, promoting industry concentration and optimizing industrial layout [1] - Policies such as ultra-low emission renovations and carbon emission trading markets will drive capacity optimization and accelerate the elimination of outdated capacity [1] Demand Side - Despite a decline in demand from real estate and infrastructure sectors, the overall steel demand is expected to remain stable due to support from manufacturing sectors like machinery, automotive, and shipbuilding [2] - The demand for steel in housing construction is anticipated to stabilize gradually, while infrastructure demand is expected to be supported by special government bonds [2] - Manufacturing steel demand is projected to increase as companies transition from destocking to restocking, aided by improving profits and policies to boost domestic demand [2] Raw Material Side - The supply and demand for iron ore and coking coal are expected to become more balanced, with new iron ore projects coming online and coking coal supply remaining high [2] - The overall supply of raw materials is expected to remain high, while the demand for raw materials is limited due to stagnant iron and steel production, leading to improved profit margins for steel mills [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading steel companies and those with elastic production capacity, as steel demand is expected to exceed expectations and remain stable in the long term [3] - Key companies recommended include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, with attention to flexible production companies like Liugang and Shandong Steel [3] - In the special steel sector, companies with strong performance such as Xianglou New Materials and Jiuli Special Materials are highlighted for their growth potential [3] Key Forecasts - The report provides forecasts for steel consumption across various sectors, indicating a decline in housing steel consumption but growth in machinery and automotive sectors [31] - The total steel demand is projected to decrease slightly from 101,300 million tons in 2022 to 99,529 million tons in 2025, reflecting a gradual stabilization in demand [31] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing sector is expected to maintain resilience, with fixed asset investment showing a cumulative year-on-year increase of 8.8% in early 2025 [59] - Specific manufacturing segments such as metal cutting machine tools and excavators are experiencing high growth rates, contributing positively to steel demand [62] - The automotive sector is projected to see an increase in steel consumption, driven by rising production and the growing share of SUVs, with an expected steel demand of 6,412 million tons in 2025 [64][65] Export Dynamics - China's net steel exports are expected to increase significantly, with a net export of 3,883 million tons in early 2025, driven by competitive pricing and strong oil and gas demand in regions like Southeast Asia and the Middle East [77][78]

➢ 投资建议：公司三重护城河逐步形成，我们看好公司在中高端市场凭借品牌 力占据稳固的市场份额，并维持高盈利能力；逐步在纯电基础建设及智能化能力 方面加大投入强化优势，驱动销量的稳步提升。我们预计公司 2025-2027 年收 入分别为 1,583.0/1,930.2/2,269.8 亿元，归母净利润为 101.2/145.7/184.1 亿 元，对应 2025 年 6 月 19 日收盘价 101.9 港元/股（港元兑人民币汇率 1:0.92）， PE 分别为 20/14/11 倍，维持"推荐"评级。 ➢ 风险提示：车市下行风险；新车型销量、需求不及预期；行业竞争加剧风险； 出海进度不及预期。 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 单位 / 百万人民币 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 144,460 | 158,301 | 193,015 | 226,982 | | 增长率（%） | 16.6 | 9.6 | 21.9 | 17.6 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the motorcycle industry, particularly recommending companies like Chuanfeng Power, Longxin General, and Qianjiang Motorcycle [6][15]. Core Insights - The motorcycle industry is experiencing significant growth, with 250cc and above motorcycle sales reaching a record high in May 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 31.1% and a cumulative increase of 50.4% from January to May 2025 [3][4]. - The report highlights the strong performance of major players in the market, with Chuanfeng Power leading in sales and market share, followed by Qianjiang Motorcycle and Longxin General [6][15]. - The export market is also thriving, with a notable increase in shipments of 250cc and above motorcycles, driven by the growth of leading companies in the 500-800cc segment [4][5]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In May 2025, sales of motorcycles above 125cc reached 703,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.8% [4]. - For 250cc and above motorcycles, May sales were 101,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 31.1% and a cumulative total of 399,000 units from January to May, reflecting a 50.4% increase [4][5]. Market Structure - The report notes strong growth in the 500cc and above segment, with sales of 500-800cc motorcycles increasing by 96.6% year-on-year in May [5]. - The 250cc to 400cc segment saw sales of 53,000 units in May, up 21.4% year-on-year, while the 400cc to 500cc segment sold 30,000 units, marking a 23.3% increase [5]. Competitive Landscape - The top three companies in the 250cc and above segment in May 2025 were Chuanfeng Power, Qianjiang Motorcycle, and Longxin General, with a combined market share of 48.4% [6]. - Chuanfeng Power maintained a market share of 21.5% in May, with sales of 22,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 48.1% [6][8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the motorcycle market, driven by new model launches and an expanding export market, particularly for Chuanfeng Power and Longxin General [11][15]. - The motorcycle industry is expected to benefit from a cultural shift towards motorcycle usage, with domestic brands poised to capture a larger share of the growing demand [15].

Group 1 - The report highlights a mixed performance in metal prices during 2025H1, with strong price resilience observed in copper and aluminum, while other metals like zinc faced declines [3][11][12] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector was robust, with a year-to-date weighted average increase of 15.69% as of May 30, 2025, outperforming major indices [24][30] - The outlook for 2025H2 suggests continued upward pressure on industrial metal prices due to persistent supply constraints and resilient demand, despite external tariff uncertainties [3][35] Group 2 - In the aluminum sector, supply risks from Guinea's bauxite resources are emphasized, with domestic production nearing capacity limits and slow recovery in European electrolytic aluminum production [4][35] - The demand for aluminum is significantly driven by the electric vehicle and photovoltaic industries, which helps offset declines in real estate demand [4][35] - The copper market is characterized by a steep supply curve and strong price resilience, supported by domestic policies and overseas supply chain restructuring [5][36] Group 3 - Investment recommendations include focusing on industrial metal stocks, particularly in the aluminum and copper sectors, with specific companies highlighted for their growth potential [5][36] - Key recommended stocks in the aluminum sector include China Aluminum, Zhongfu Industrial, and Tianshan Aluminum, while in the copper sector, Wukuang Resources and Zijin Mining are emphasized [5][36] - The report indicates that the supply-demand balance for copper is tightening, with historical low inventories suggesting potential for price increases [5][36]

交通运输行业 2025 年 5 月快递数据点评 顺丰控股件量增速持续领跑行业，件量和份额同比分别+32%和 0.3pct 2025 年 06 月 20 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 6 月 19 日，各快递公司公告 2025 年 5 月快递服务主要经营指标。 ➢ 行业数据：国家邮政局公布 2025 年 5 月快递行业运行情况，5 月份快递业务量与业 务收入分别完成 173.2 亿件和 1255.5 亿元，分别同比增长 17.2%和 8.2%，2025 年 1- 5 月，快递业务收入累计完成 5924.6 亿元，同比增长 10.3%，快递业务量累计完成 787.7 亿件，同比增长 20.1%。 ➢ 公司 2025 年 5 月月度数据：顺丰/申通/韵达/圆通，1）快递业务收入分别为 193.81、 44.10、44.15、58.49 亿元，收入同比增速分别为+13.4%、+13.0%、+6.7%、+14.8%。 2）业务量分别为 14.77、22.64、23.03、27.64 亿件，件量同比增速分别为+32%、+16%、 +13%、+21%，份额分别为 8.5%、13.1%、13.3%、16.0%，份额环比分别+0 ...

计算机行业动态报告 RWA 的资产上链新拼图：AI 算力租赁 2025 年 06 月 20 日 ➢ RWA 作为架构真实世界资产和 web3.0 的沟通桥梁，承担了 web2.0 向 web3.0 的融资通道功能。RWA 通过区块链技术，将现实中的有形或无形资产 转化为链上数字通证，在 web3.0 世界创造了 web2.0 现实资产的映射，使加密 货币的持有者能够完成对固定收益产品的投资，实现资产多元化和风险分担。 ➢ 从传统金融资产到不动产再到实体经济资产，RWA 链上资产路径持续延伸。 2014 年，USDT 等锚定法定货币的稳定币诞生，成为最早的 RWA 形式，解决了 加密市场的波动性问题。此后，RWA 资产范畴不断向证券、不动产、现实资产 扩展，贝莱德、花旗、摩根大通等国际金融巨头也积极参与 RWA 项目，推动多 元资产上链。以蚂蚁数科和朗新集团的新能源实体资产 RWA 项目为代表，中国 内地 RWA 聚焦实体资产，通过"区块链+物联网"的创新路径，实现链上交易。 ➢ 从充电桩到光伏电站，算力租赁或将成为 RWA 资产链条的下一站。无论是 海外如 Ondo 锚定美国国债，亦或是国内蚂蚁数科和协鑫能科 ...