化工行业周报（20250616-20250622） 本周甲醛、新加坡柴油、NYMEX 天然气、Brent 原油等产品涨幅居前 2025 年 06 月 23 日 化工周观点： ➢ 重点关注半年报业绩好的标的。二季度即将结束，建议开始寻找二季度景气 度好，业绩有望超预期的标的，建议关注圣泉集团、海利得和卓越新能。首先是 和下游宏观经济相关性较弱，受益 AI 资本开支持续提升的新材料行业，圣泉集 团是 AI 服务器中核心电子树脂的主要国内供应商，随着下游服务器出货量持续 放量，公司业绩有望环比提升。其次是海外有工厂，受益于美国关税冲突的细分 行业龙头，建议关注涤纶工业丝的领军企业海利得。然后是公司自身产能增长， 随着新项目新产品投产，业绩有望上一个台阶的卓越新能。 ➢ 磷肥出口窗口期已至，磷肥高景气有望持续。根据中国化肥信息网，磷肥的 出口指导具体情况如下：1、2025 年磷肥出口或将分阶段进行，首批集中在 5-9 月高峰期，第二批视国内供需动态调整。2、法检时间缩减，预计半月左右时间。 3、2025 年磷肥出口配额总量比去年减少。当前磷肥处于春耕后的淡季，出口有 望缓解国内产能过剩问题，国际高价出口有望进一步维持 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for magnesium alloys in the automotive lightweighting sector, which is expected to experience significant growth [2][31]. - The magnesium-aluminum price ratio has dropped significantly, enhancing the cost-effectiveness of magnesium [1][11]. - The company has a comprehensive industrial chain covering mining, refining, and processing, which provides a competitive advantage [3][42]. Summary by Sections Magnesium Industry - Magnesium is a strategically important metal with a fully self-sufficient supply chain in China, unlike aluminum and iron, which have high external dependency rates [1][24]. - The magnesium-aluminum price ratio fell below 1 in March 2024 and has remained low, indicating a favorable cost position for magnesium [1][11]. - The automotive sector is the largest demand area for magnesium alloys, accounting for 70% of consumption, driven by the need for lightweight materials [27][31]. Company Overview - The company has significant resources, including extensive dolomite reserves and multiple magnesium production bases, which support its growth potential [3][42]. - Current projects aim to increase production capacity to 500,000 tons of raw magnesium and magnesium alloys [3][42]. - The company is expanding its product offerings in various applications, including automotive components, which are expected to see increased adoption [49]. Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 214 million, 478 million, and 639 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.22, 0.48, and 0.64 yuan [4][54]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is expected to decrease from 52 in 2025 to 18 in 2027, indicating potential for growth [4][54].

非银行业周报 20250622 1.5%预定利率分红险有望提振板块估值 2025 年 06 月 22 日 ➢ 分红险预定利率迎来"1 开头"时代，1.5%预定利率分红险有望降低险企负 债成本。根据财联社报道，近期市场上已有险企对分红险预定利率进行下调，合 资公司同方全球率先推出了 1.5%预定利率定价的分红险产品，与前期 2.0%预定 利率的分红险相比，预定利率降低了 50bp。近期长端利率 10 年期国债持续低 位震荡，同时最近一期的预定利率指导值为 2.13%，已低于现有传统险预定利率 2.5%达 37bp，超过了 25bp，若后一次预定利率指导值继续低于 2.5%达 25bp 以上，则预定利率将调降，此次有险企率先开发降低预定利率后的分红险，我们 认为体现了在预定利率动态调整机制下，险企主动并提前进行产品切换的思路。 1.5%预定利率的分红险销售有望缓解险企的债券配置压力，当前 10 年期国债维 持在 1.6%左右的水平，1.5%预定利率分红险的债券配置压力有望减轻，头部险 企有望凭借更为丰富的分红产品系列和更强的综合投资能力而更为受益，保险板 块估值有望持续修复。 ➢ 证监会制定发布《科创板意见》，增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the industry, indicating a potential growth of 5% to 15% relative to the benchmark index over the next 12 months [8]. Core Insights - The recent implementation of the stablecoin legislation in Hong Kong signifies an acceleration in the development of blockchain and fintech innovations, reflecting a positive attitude towards financial technology in the region [6][41]. - The global stablecoin market has surpassed $250 billion, with USDT and USDC dominating the market, holding approximately 86% of the total market share [18][19]. - The Circle stablecoin has seen a price increase of over 675% since its listing, with a market capitalization exceeding $36.7 billion, highlighting significant interest from overseas capital markets [6][41]. Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of June 16-20, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.45%, the SME index decreased by 0.43%, and the ChiNext index dropped by 1.66%. The computer sector (CITIC) saw a decline of 1.87% [3][49]. Industry News - Midjourney launched its first AI video generation model, V1, which supports image-to-video conversion with a maximum duration of 21 seconds [4]. - Huawei Cloud released the Pangu Model 5.5, announcing the launch of a new generation of Ascend AI cloud services [4][45]. Company News - Henghua Technology announced a reduction of 5,800,000 shares by a major shareholder, representing 0.97% of the total share capital [5]. - Jingye Technology plans to reduce its shares by up to 2,313,800 shares, accounting for no more than 1% of the total share capital [5][48]. Weekly Insights - The report suggests focusing on the stablecoin industry chain, including companies like Zhongke Jincai, Jinzhen Co., and Longxin Technology, as well as the cross-border payment industry chain, which includes Newland, Xinguodu, and Lakala [6][41].

量化周报 市场整体风险较低 2025 年 06 月 22 日 ➢ 择时观点：市场整体风险较低。当下流动性保持上行趋势，分歧度保持下行 趋势，景气度保持上行趋势，ERP 保持极值状态，三维择时框架继续满仓。从技 术形态来看，上涨波段的中断减弱了短期内突破的可能性，但整体回调表现出缩 量特征且未突破前期低点，并且不远处有支撑，整体风险较低。 ➢ 指数监测：国证信创大幅流入。通过对同一指数对应的 ETF 规模进行合并并 剔除涨跌幅影响，我们计算了各指数 ETF 产品总体申购/赎回份额情况。近 1 周 ETF 产品申购流入增速快的有：国证信创、港股通医药、中证信创、科创 AI、国 证油气。近 1 周国证信创、深证红利、中证信创、国证价值、细分机械份额流出 最多。 ➢ 资金共振：推荐交通运输，石油石化，电子与非银行金融。我们监控两融与 大单资金的共振情绪，选择两类资金都看好的行业。两融资金流上周在医药中净 流入最多，净流入 12 亿元；大单资金上周在银行中净流入最多，净流入 22.2 亿 元。根据融资融券净流入与主动大单资金的净流入情况，本周推荐交通运输，石 油石化，电子与非银行金融。 ➢ 因子跟踪：估值和成长因子表现 ...

"大浪淘沙"，在不确定中找寻确定性 2025 年 06 月 22 日 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525030001 执业证号：S0100524080007 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：linyan@mszq.com 邮箱：shaoxiang@mszq.com ➢ 我们一直认为：作为一个慢变量，宏观应该是经济和金融市场中相对容易预 测的部分。但在经历了近期的市场波动后，外界也许更加理解我们为什么会说： 今年预测不到的事，远比我们自认为能预测的事要多。当"百年未有之大变局" 下遇到了历史上数一数二"善变"的美国总统，全球宏观研究员和外贸企业突然 成为了同一拨"被害者"。唯一能庆幸的是相比后者，至少我们不用安排自己的产 品"海面两万里"（抢转口或是出口）。 2025 年三季度宏观经济与大类资产展望 1.2025 年 5 月财政数据点评：5 月财政：找 寻"抗风险"的答案-2025/06/21 2.经济动态跟踪："国补"继续下的消费后劲- 2025/06/19 3.美联储政策观察：6 月议息：谁能"逼"出 联储的降息？-2025/06/18 4.重新讨论变局下的资 ...

逆变器出口金额同比持续改善，5 月全社会用电量同比增长 2025 年 06 月 22 日 ➢ 本周（20250616-20250620）板块行情 电力设备及新能源周报 20250622 电力设备与新能源板块：本周下跌 0.79%，涨跌幅排名第 9，弱于上证指数。 本周核电指数涨幅最大，工控自动化跌幅最大。核电指数上涨 0.65%，太阳能 指数下跌 0.77%，储能指数下跌 1.04%，风力发电指数下跌 1.50%，新能源汽 车指数下跌 1.61%，锂电池指数下跌 2.09%，工控自动化下跌 2.50%。 ➢ 新能源车：零跑 2026 款 C16 发布，多维度升级打造超舒适智能出行体验 2025 年 6 月，零跑推出 2026 款 C16 超舒适智能 SUV。含 5/6 座版，适 配家庭与商务场景。安全与智能方面，车身用 75% 高强度钢铝混合结构，获 中保研全优评级认证，配三排侧气帘；座舱座椅用婴儿可啃咬材料，搭 AQS 系 统；智能驾驶有高通智感座舱、新交互系统、双 AI 语音模型，Leapmotor Pilot 辅助系统靠 28 个感知硬件，实现 27 项功能，多场景守护安全与体验 。 ➢ 光伏：逆变器出 ...

汽车和汽车零部件行业周报 20250622 新车型密集催化 自主高端化向上 2025 年 06 月 22 日 ➢ 本周数据：2025 年 6 月第 2 周（6.9-6.15）乘用车销量 45.9 万辆，同比 +26.4%，环比+26.8%；新能源乘用车销量 25.2 万辆，同比+43.4%，环比 +24.8%；新能源渗透率 54.8%，环比+0.6pct。 ➢ 本周行情：汽车板块本周表现弱于市场。本周（6 月 16 日-6 月 20 日）A 股 汽车板块下跌 2.44%，在申万子行业中排名第 24 位，表现弱于沪深 300 （+0.30%）。细分板块中，商用载客车、乘用车、汽车零部件、商用载货车、摩 托车及其他、汽车服务分别下跌 1.06%、2.35%、2.39%、2.71%、3.24%、3.89%。 ➢ 本周观点：本月建议关注核心组合【吉利汽车、比亚迪、理想汽车、小鹏汽 车、小米集团、伯特利、拓普集团、新泉股份、沪光股份、春风动力】。 ➢ 乘用车基本面向上 建议关注强产品周期车企。6 月第 1/2 乘用车销量 36.2/45.9 万辆，同比+12.4%/+26.4%，环比-22.3%/+26.8%；新能源渗 ...

钢铁周报 20250622 供需双弱，钢价延续震荡 2025 年 06 月 22 日 ➢ 价格：本周钢材价格涨跌互现。截至 6 月 20 日，上海 20mm HRB400 材 质螺纹价格为 3070 元/吨，较上周持平。高线 8.0mm 价格为 3270 元/吨，较上 周持平。热轧 3.0mm 价格为 3240 元/吨，较上周升 40 元/吨。冷轧 1.0mm 价 格为 3510 元/吨，较上周降 30 元/吨。普中板 20mm 价格为 3300 元/吨，较上 周降 40 元/吨。本周原材料中，国产矿市场价格稳中有跌，进口矿市场价格下跌， 废钢价格上涨。 ➢ 利润：本周钢材利润上升。长流程方面，我们测算本周行业螺纹钢、热轧和 冷轧毛利分别环比前一周变化+6 元/吨，+20 元/吨和-26 元/吨。短流程方面， 本周电炉钢毛利环比前一周变化-4 元/吨。 ➢ 产量与库存：截至 6 月 20 日，五大钢材产量上升，总库存环比下降。产量 方面，本周五大钢材品种产量 869 万吨，环比升 9.66 万吨，其中建筑钢材产量 周环比增 8.33 万吨，板材产量周环比升 1.33 万吨，螺纹钢本周增产 4.61 万吨 至 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for companies such as Funiu Co., Ltd. and Shenneng Co., Ltd. while cautiously recommending China General Nuclear Power and Anhui Energy [4][21]. Core Viewpoints - In May, the total electricity consumption reached 809.6 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.4%. The first industry saw an increase of 8.4%, the second industry 2.1%, the third industry 9.4%, and urban and rural residents' consumption 9.6% [2][22]. - The report highlights that coal prices are expected to remain low, benefiting thermal power generation, which is anticipated to improve performance in Q2. Companies are actively investing in wind power and cogeneration assets for long-term growth potential [4][19]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The electricity sector underperformed the broader market, with the public utility sector closing at 2355.40 points, down 1.13%, and the electricity sub-sector at 3131.64 points, down 1.31% [1][8]. - Among the electricity sub-sectors, photovoltaic generation fell by 1.57%, wind power by 1.28%, while thermal services rose by 2.08% [1][13]. Industry Data Tracking - The average price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region was 663.00 RMB/ton, with no change week-on-week [48]. - The report notes that the electricity market is experiencing a decline in coal and gas prices, with the average transaction price for coal in Guangdong dropping by 28.43% [69]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with stable performance and growth potential, particularly in thermal power and hydropower sectors, such as Changjiang Electric Power and Sichuan Investment Energy [4][20]. - It also suggests monitoring companies involved in asset restructuring and mergers, as these are expected to gain traction this year [20].