平安观点： 基 金 报 告 基 金 周 报 2025 年 04 月 20 日 基金周报 黄金股板块表现优异，首批科创综指增强策略 ETF 上报 证券分析师 | 郭子睿 | | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | S1060520070003 | | | | GUOZIRUI807@pingan.com.cn | | 陈 | 瑶 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | | S1060524120003 | | | | CHENYAO370@pingan.com.cn | | 研究助理 | | | 证 券 研 究 报 告 任书康 一般证券从业资格编号 S1060123050035 RENSHUKANG722@pingan.com.cn 胡心怡 一般证券从业资格编号 S1060124030069 HUXINYI184@pingan.com.cn 高 越 一般证券从业资格编号 S1060124070014 GAOYUE384@pingan.com.cn 市场回顾：上周 A 股市场上行。上证指数周内上涨 1.19%，收于 3,276.73， 最高 3,285.92；深证成指周内下跌 0. ...

证券研究报告 OpenAI o3、豆包新品首发, 央行等六部门发文规范金融业数据跨境流动 计算机行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所计算机团队 分析师：闫磊S1060517070006(证券投资咨询)YANLEI511@pingan.com.cn 黄韦涵S1060523070003(证券投资咨询)HUANGWEIHAN235@pingan.com.cn 研究助理：王佳一S1060123070023（一般证券从业资格）WANGJIAYI446@pingan.com.cn 2025年4月20日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心摘要 行业要闻及简评：1）OpenAI o3、豆包新品首发，关注原生Agent与多模态推理。4月17日，OpenAI公司发布o系列模型中的最新款o3和 o4-mini，火山引擎发布豆包1.5·深度思考模型等新品。o3和o4-mini被称为是OpenAI迄今为止发布的最智能的模型，首次实现在思维 链中用图像来思考，结合高级推理与 Web 搜索、图像处理等工具（自动缩放、裁剪、翻转或增强图像），以及推理模型首次可以代理 使用和组合ChatGPT中的各个工具，包括搜索网络、使用Python分析上传 ...

前瞻性产业研究 2025 年 4 月 20 日 证券分析师 养老金融双周报（2025.04.14-2025.04.20） 美国地方法院阻止 DOGE 调查社保欺诈案 | 陈骁 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060516070001 | | | chenxiao397@pingan.com.cn | 郝博韬 投资咨询资格编号 S1060521110001 haobotao973@pingan.com.cn 石艺 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070003 SHIYI262@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： 本期重点：美国地方法院禁止 DOGE 调查社保欺诈案 第一，美国联邦法官拟禁止政府效率部门访问社会保障数据。4 月 15日， 美国总统特朗普签署了一份备忘录，要求埃隆·马斯克的"政府效率部" （DOGE）打击社会保障项目中的欺诈行为。核心是限制无证移民领取社 会保障退休福利。4 月 17 日，美国马里兰州联邦法院发布初步禁令，禁止 DOGE 访问包含个人身份信息在内的任何美国社会保障局（SSA）系统。 根据禁令，DOGE 及其团队成员和附属机构需要交出并删除其掌控 ...

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Real Estate Stronger than the Market (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Policy expectations are rising, enhancing the risk-reward ratio for the sector. The Prime Minister emphasized the need for new support measures during a recent survey in Beijing, coinciding with the upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of April. The report suggests that the short-term investment risk-reward ratio for the sector is improving due to potential policy enhancements aimed at boosting domestic demand and supporting the real estate market [2][3] - The report estimates that the potential demand for residential properties in China from 2025 to 2030 is around 876 million square meters, with 2024 sales expected to be 810 million square meters, indicating a significant gap. The promotion of "good houses" is expected to accelerate the release of improvement and replacement demand [2] - Short-term policy and fundamental factors are expected to resonate positively, while the long-term product iteration presents new opportunities. Recommended stocks include companies with strong product capabilities and optimized inventory structures, such as China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments [2] Summary by Sections Policy Environment Monitoring - The Prime Minister highlighted the significant development space in China's real estate market. Recent new policies in cities like Wuxi, Qingdao, and Suzhou aim to stimulate housing demand and support families with multiple children [6] Market Operation Monitoring - Transaction volume remains stable, with new home sales in 50 key cities at 14,000 units, a slight decrease of 0.1% week-on-week. The average daily sales for new homes in April show a year-on-year decline of 22.2% [9][12] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a 3.4% increase in stock prices, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.59%. The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the real estate sector is 35.72, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 12.26, indicating a high valuation relative to historical levels [23][29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][50]. Core Insights - Eli Lilly's first oral small molecule GLP-1 drug, Orforglipron, has successfully completed Phase 3 clinical trials, which is expected to change the landscape of weight loss medications [3][4]. - The ACHIEVE-1 trial showed that Orforglipron significantly reduced HbA1c levels by 1.3% to 1.6% from a baseline of 8.0% after 40 weeks, with over 65% of patients achieving HbA1c levels ≤6.5% [3][4]. - Patients receiving the highest dose of Orforglipron lost an average of 7.3 kg, indicating potential for further weight loss [4]. - Eli Lilly plans to submit a global application for Orforglipron for weight management by the end of this year and for type 2 diabetes treatment in 2026 [4][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The successful Phase 3 trial of Orforglipron positions it as a potential second oral GLP-1 drug in the U.S., following Novo Nordisk's Rybelsus [5]. Investment Strategy - Focus on "innovation," "overseas expansion," "equipment upgrades," and "consumer recovery" as key investment themes [7]. - Recommended companies include innovative drug developers and those with strong overseas market potential [7]. Key Companies to Watch - **Nocera Health**: Expected to achieve over 1 billion yuan in revenue from its core product, with a projected 49% year-on-year growth [8]. - **Sihuan Pharmaceutical**: Strong fundamentals with a stable growth outlook, particularly in the ADC market [11]. - **China Biopharmaceutical**: Rapid revenue growth with a focus on innovative products [13]. - **Aier Eye Hospital**: Benefiting from increasing demand in ophthalmology and ongoing overseas expansion [22]. Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector saw a decline of 0.36% last week, while the broader market index rose by 0.59% [25][36].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" which indicates an expected performance of the industry index to exceed the market performance by more than 5% over the next six months [16]. Core Viewpoints - The cultural and entertainment industry is expected to experience diversified growth due to favorable national policies, leading to a continued recovery in the media sector. The report suggests focusing on companies with strong earnings certainty, high dividend yields, and stable payout ratios [3]. - The gaming and IP sector is anticipated to enter a new product cycle supported by government encouragement of cultural consumption. Companies in this sector are expected to benefit from cost reduction and efficiency improvements through technologies like AIGC [3]. - The film and cinema industry is gradually recovering with an increase in the number of films, supported by ongoing policy backing and a favorable valuation for leading companies [3]. - The advertising and marketing sector is recovering at a slower pace, with a focus on companies with strong client structures and channel resources, particularly those with improving profit margins [4]. - In the digital media and publishing sectors, leading companies are expected to maintain stable market shares, with growth opportunities in new business expansions [4]. Summary by Sections Gaming and IP - The gaming sector is expected to benefit from new product cycles and technological advancements, with a focus on leading companies such as 37 Interactive Entertainment, Perfect World, and Gigabit Network [3]. Film and Cinema - The film industry is seeing a recovery in supply, with an increase in film quantity and improved performance from leading companies like Wanda Film and Light Media [3]. Advertising and Marketing - The advertising sector is experiencing a slow recovery, with a focus on leading companies like Focus Media and BlueFocus Communication Group, which have strong market positions and improving profit margins [4]. Digital Media and Publishing - In digital media, companies like Mango Super Media are expected to maintain strong positions, while the publishing sector shows positive growth in educational and children's book sales [4][12].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Real Estate Stronger than the Market (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Policy expectations are rising, enhancing the risk-reward ratio for the sector. The government is likely to introduce new support measures, especially with the upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of April. The short-term investment risk-reward ratio for the sector is improving due to potential policy enhancements aimed at boosting housing demand and supporting the market [2][3] - The real estate market still has significant development potential, with a projected demand for residential properties of 876 million square meters from 2025 to 2030. The estimated sales area for 2024 is 810 million square meters, which is below the mid-term demand center. The promotion of "good houses" is expected to accelerate the release of improvement and replacement demand [2] - Short-term policy and fundamental factors are expected to resonate positively, while the long-term product iteration presents new opportunities. Recommended stocks include companies with strong product capabilities and optimized inventory structures, such as China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments [2] Summary by Sections Policy Environment Monitoring - The government emphasizes the significant development space in the real estate market, with new policies introduced in cities like Wuxi, Qingdao, and Suzhou to support housing demand [6] Market Operation Monitoring - Transaction volume remains stable, with new home sales in 50 key cities at 14,000 units, a slight decrease of 0.1% week-on-week. The average daily transaction volume for new homes in April shows a year-on-year decline of 22.2% [9][12] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a 3.4% increase in stock prices, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.59%. The current PE ratio for the real estate sector is 35.72, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 12.26, indicating a high valuation relative to historical levels [23][29]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Outperform the market (expected to outperform the market by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [34] Core Insights - RISC-V architecture is driving diverse demand in the chip ecosystem under AI influence, with a projected CAGR of 75% from 2020 to 2024 and an expected annual growth rate of nearly 50% until 2030 [2][9] - International market changes are expected to increase the contract price growth of memory products in Q2 2025, with both DRAM and NAND Flash prices anticipated to rise more than previously expected due to heightened trading momentum [4][5] - The global smartphone market showed a modest growth of only 1% in Q1 2025, with Samsung leading at 20% market share, followed by Apple at 18% [12][13] - QD-OLED displays are projected to account for 73% of OLED display shipments in 2025, up from 68% in 2024, indicating strong competitiveness in high-end display technology [18][19] Summary by Sections RISC-V and AI - RISC-V is recognized for its innovative architecture, offering better performance and smaller chip sizes, making it suitable for AI accelerator designs [2][9] - The market for processors utilizing RISC-V technology is expected to grow significantly, with a 10-year CAGR of approximately 57% from 2020 to 2030 [2][9] Memory Market Outlook - The memory market is experiencing a shift in supply and demand strategies due to international circumstances, leading to increased contract price expectations for DRAM and NAND Flash in Q2 2025 [4][5] - Price forecasts indicate a potential increase in memory prices, with DRAM and NAND Flash expected to rise by 3-8% in Q2 2025 after a decline in Q1 2025 [6] Smartphone Market Analysis - The smartphone market's growth remains sluggish, with a mere 1% increase in Q1 2025, attributed to macroeconomic challenges and consumer confidence issues [12][13] - Major players like Samsung and Apple continue to dominate the market, with Xiaomi, vivo, and OPPO following [12][13] Display Technology Trends - The rise of QD-OLED technology is expected to enhance the quality and performance of displays, catering to high-end users and gamers [18][19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on semiconductor manufacturing and equipment due to the clear trend of domestic substitution, with specific companies recommended for investment [29][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Outperform" rating for the biodiesel industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The biodiesel industry is experiencing a shift from export reliance to domestic demand stimulation, driven by policy support and the gradual resolution of export challenges [4][5] - Global biodiesel consumption is projected to grow, particularly in the EU, the US, Indonesia, and Brazil, with significant increases in demand for advanced biodiesel products [5][17] - China's biodiesel consumption remains low, but there is substantial potential for growth if B5 blending is implemented nationwide, which could create a market space exceeding 6 million tons [4][34] Summary by Sections 1. Biodiesel Market Dynamics - The global biodiesel consumption has a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.8% from 2010 to 2023, with significant contributions from the EU, US, Indonesia, and Brazil [4][15] - The EU's RED III policy aims to increase the share of advanced biofuels in transportation energy consumption to 5.5% by 2030, which is expected to enhance demand for China's HVO and SAF biodiesel [20][29] 2. Raw Material Supply and Demand - China's biodiesel production primarily relies on waste cooking oil (UCO), with a theoretical annual capacity exceeding 8 million tons, but actual collection is around 5.4 million tons [4][34] - The report anticipates a shift in UCO usage from export to domestic production, especially for second-generation biodiesel (HVO) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [4][5] 3. Company Focus - The report highlights key companies in the biodiesel sector: - Zhuoyue New Energy, a leader in first-generation biodiesel with upcoming second-generation production [5] - Shangaohuan Energy, a leading supplier of UCO with significant waste cooking oil processing capacity [5] - Langkun Environment, focused on biomass waste treatment and actively expanding into biodiesel [5]

有色金属与新材料周报 美元信用走弱主线清晰，持续看好黄金中长期走势 有色金属与新材料 2025 年 4 月 20 日 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 24-04 24-07 24-10 25-01 25-04 沪深300 有色金属 证券分析师 核心观点： 贵金属-黄金：美元信用走弱主线清晰，持续看好黄金中长期走势。 截至 4.17，COMEX 金主力合约环比上涨 2.65%至 3341.3 美元/盎 司。SPDR 黄金 ETF 环比下降 0.1%为 952.29 吨。4 月 16 日鲍威尔 表示，特朗普的关税政策让经济面临很高的不确定性，联储要等到形 势更明朗再考虑降息，要避免关税持久推升通胀，鲍威尔表态一定程 度表现出对美国滞胀的担忧。另外特朗普周内就美联储降息多次向鲍 威尔施压，或希望通过降息以减轻其关税政策所带来的通胀影响。我 们认为特朗普政策反复可能带来黄金短期波动率走高，但海外宏观不 确定性持续，中期黄金避险属性仍处于放大阶段。另外长期来看，特 朗普上任后，美元信用走弱的主线逻辑愈加清晰，黄金货币属性加速 凸显，持续看好黄金中长期走势。 工业 ...