2025 年 12 月 08 日 锡华科技：风电齿轮铸件优质厂商， 绑定龙头客户二十余载 ——注册制新股纵览 20251208 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 证券分析师 策 略 研 究 新股分析 彭文玉 A0230517080001 pengwy@swsresearch.com 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 任奕璇 A0230525050002 renyx2@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈榕杰 (8621)23297818× chenrj@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 申 购 策 略 报 告 相关研究 - ⚫ 剔除流动性溢价因素后，锡华科技 2.34 分，位于总分的 31.8%分位。锡华科技于 2025 年 12 月 4 日招股，将在主板上市。剔除、考虑流动性溢价因素后，我们测算锡华科技 AHP 得分分别为 2.34 分、2.13 分，分别位于非科创体系 AHP 模型总分的 31.8%、38.0%分位， 分别处于上游偏下、中游偏上水平。假设以 95%入 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report highlights the competitive strength of Tian Su Measurement in the metrology calibration industry, indicating potential for growth amid a Matthew effect in the industry [7][9] - The company has established itself as a leading independent third-party metrology testing service provider in China, with 1,417 metrology calibration project capabilities across various sectors, including biotechnology and new energy vehicles [9][11] - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve revenue of approximately 686 million yuan in the metrology calibration segment, capturing over 5% market share [9][11] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the company's focus on the battery testing industry, which has become a significant growth driver, with revenue contribution from testing services increasing from 9% to 14% between 2022 and 2024 [14][15] - The company has developed extensive battery testing capabilities, including over 2,000 testing channels, and has established partnerships with major clients such as CATL and Huawei Digital Energy [14][15] - The growth in lithium battery and energy storage battery shipments is projected to provide substantial incremental space for the company's battery testing business, with a forecasted shipment volume of nearly 1,500 GWh by 2025 [18] Group 3 - Financial comparisons with peer companies reveal that Tian Su Measurement has experienced rapid revenue growth, with revenues of 597 million, 726 million, and 800 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, while maintaining a stable gross margin [21][23] - The company's R&D expense ratio is lower than that of comparable companies, reflecting a focused R&D direction and efficient team structure [23] - Operating cash flow has been robust, with net cash flow exceeding net profit, and the company's debt ratio has consistently declined, reaching 24.90% by the end of 2024 [26][27] Group 4 - The report outlines the company's fundraising plans, which include projects aimed at enhancing metrology testing capabilities, establishing regional laboratories, and building a digital center to improve management efficiency [30][31] - The total investment for the Shenzhen headquarters project is estimated at 127.66 million yuan, with an internal rate of return of 20.80% [31]

行 业 及 产 业 农林牧渔 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 08 日 猪价继续震荡走弱，亏损加剧、产 能去化提速 看好 —— 农林牧渔周观点（2025.12.1-2025.12.7） 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 1.5%，沪深 300 上涨 1.3%。个股涨幅前五名：好当家 （16.2%）、平潭发展（10.6%）、西王食品（10.3%）、生物股份（9.7%）、福建金森 （9.4%），跌幅前五名：绿康生化 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has recently faced administrative penalties related to false shareholder information and undisclosed related party transactions, but it does not trigger major delisting risks [6] - The company is expected to see significant improvement in profitability driven by mini-games, with a notable increase in net profit margin in Q3 [6] - The company has a rich pipeline of over 20 games, focusing on MMO and SLG genres, with expectations for new product validation in 2026 [6] - AI integration is enhancing production efficiency across the company's operations, with investments in various AI-related companies [6] - The company has maintained a strong dividend policy, with a dividend payout ratio of 59% in the first three quarters [6] - The revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are maintained, with expected revenues of 164 billion, 190 billion, and 203 billion respectively [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 16,440 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is projected to be 3,205 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.9% [5] - The earnings per share for 2025 is expected to be 1.45 yuan, with a PE ratio of 14 [5] - The gross margin is projected to be 77.0% for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 23.0% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "positive" outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, particularly focusing on innovative drug sectors [3]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector's performance saw a decline of 0.7% this week, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.4%. The pharmaceutical index ranked 21st among 31 sub-industries [3][4]. - The new National Medical Insurance Drug List added 114 drugs, including 50 innovative drugs, with an overall success rate of 88%, significantly up from 76% in 2024. The first commercial health insurance innovative drug list includes 19 drugs, enhancing coverage for critical areas such as cancer and chronic diseases [3][12][14]. - The establishment of the Chinese Drug Price Registration System allows companies to self-declare innovative drug prices, facilitating global pricing strategies for innovative drugs [17][18]. Market Performance - The pharmaceutical index's valuation stands at 29.3 times earnings, ranking 10th among 31 primary industries [6]. - The performance of various sub-sectors includes: raw materials (-2.5%), chemical preparations (-0.9%), and medical devices (-0.9%), while medical circulation saw an increase of 6.5% [6][4]. Recent Key Events - The report highlights significant clinical trial results from companies like Junsheng Pharmaceutical, which demonstrated advantages in glycemic control and cardiovascular benefits with its new drug HTD1801 [25]. - The report notes the strategic partnership between Kelun Pharmaceutical and Crescent for developing ADC therapies, with potential milestone payments reaching up to $1.25 billion [27][28]. - The report also mentions the IPO application of Lingke Pharmaceutical, focusing on innovative small molecule drugs for autoimmune and inflammatory diseases, with a post-investment valuation of 3.42 billion yuan [30]

Market Overview - The US ADP employment and PMI data for November were both below expectations, with PMI at 48.2 (expected 49) and ADP employment decreasing by 32,000 (expected an increase of 10,000), reinforcing the Fed's rate cut expectations[3] - The 10Y US Treasury yield rose to 4.14%, up 12 basis points, while the US dollar index fell by 0.46% to 99.0, indicating a continued weak dollar environment[3][9] - Most global equity indices rose, with the Korean Composite Stock Price Index leading the gains, while the Brazilian stock market saw significant declines[3][8] Fund Flows - Both domestic and foreign capital flowed out of the Chinese equity market, with foreign capital exiting by $5.02 million and domestic capital by $20.15 million in the past week[3][15] - Global money market funds saw inflows of $1,123.3 million, while US equity funds experienced inflows of $16.3 million, contrasting with a $25.2 million outflow from Chinese equity funds[15][16] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation percentile is at 84.3%, second only to the S&P 500 and CAC 40, but remains significantly lower than US equities in absolute PE terms[3][14] - The risk-adjusted return percentile for the Shanghai Composite has decreased from 88% to 80%, indicating a decline in relative performance[3] Risk Sentiment - The implied volatility for the Shanghai Composite options has shown a significant increase, reflecting greater market uncertainty and diverging views on price levels[3][6] - The S&P 500 closed at 6,870.40, remaining above the 20-day moving average, with a put-call ratio of 1.07, indicating stable market sentiment[3][6] Economic Data - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December is at 86.20%, with a 90.20% chance of rates falling to 3.5%-3.75% by January 2026, suggesting a high likelihood of further easing[3][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the innovative drug sector and recommends focusing on companies with strong performance in medical devices, CXO, and upstream sectors [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a 0.7% decline in the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Bio Index, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.4% during the same period [3][4]. - The new National Medical Insurance Drug List added 114 drugs, including 50 innovative drugs, with an overall success rate of 88%, significantly up from 76% in 2024 [3][13]. - The launch of the Chinese Drug Price Registration System allows companies to self-declare innovative drug prices, enhancing the global pricing strategy for these drugs [19][21]. - Recent clinical trial successes and milestone payments indicate a robust pipeline for several companies, including a $250 million milestone payment received by BaiLi Tianheng [26][29]. Market Performance - The Shenwan Pharmaceutical Bio Index ranked 21st among 31 Shenwan first-level sub-industries, with a current overall valuation of 29.3 times earnings, placing it 10th among all first-level industries [3][4][6]. - Various sub-sectors showed mixed performance, with medical circulation and offline pharmacies seeing increases of 6.5% and 1.8%, respectively, while raw materials and chemical preparations declined by 2.5% and 0.9% [3][6]. Recent Key Events - The report notes the release of the first Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Directory, which includes 19 drugs aimed at enhancing coverage for critical diseases and rare conditions [13][18]. - The FDA's drug review center director's resignation adds uncertainty to the regulatory environment, which may impact drug approvals and market dynamics [19][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring flu vaccine stocks and related pharmaceutical companies as flu activity rises [22]. Company Dynamics - BaiLi Tianheng received a significant milestone payment, indicating strong progress in its global drug development efforts [26]. - Junsheng Pharmaceutical announced positive results from a head-to-head clinical trial, showcasing the advantages of its new drug HTD1801 over existing treatments [29]. - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical appointed a new senior vice president from Eli Lilly, enhancing its research and development capabilities [30]. - Kelong Botai entered a strategic partnership to develop and commercialize new cancer therapies, indicating a focus on innovative treatment options [31]. IPO Dynamics - Lingke Pharmaceutical has initiated its IPO process in Hong Kong, focusing on innovative small molecule drugs for autoimmune and inflammatory diseases [34]. - Hansi Aitai's IPO application has passed the hearing process, indicating strong market interest in its dual-function antibody therapies [36].

今日重点推荐 | 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3903 | 0.7 | -1.67 | 0.37 | | 深证综指 | 2469 | 1.24 | -1.16 | 0.61 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 0.81 | -0.84 | 18.64 | | 中盘指数 | 1.21 | -1.63 | 24.97 | | 小盘指数 | 1.23 | -1.45 | 20.17 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 保险Ⅱ | 5.78 | 5.97 | 13.66 | | 金属新材料 | 4.8 | -2.31 | 32.97 | | 航天装备Ⅱ | 3.62 | 13.13 | 43.78 | | 工业金属 | 3.42 | 9.72 | 71. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry, particularly highlighting the resilience of polyester filament in the off-season [3]. Core Insights - The demand for polyester filament has remained strong, with downstream textile operating rates reaching a high of 69.45% in early November and maintaining around 90% for polyester filament production [4][5]. - Inventory levels for polyester filament and downstream fabrics are relatively low, indicating a healthy supply-demand balance [7][8]. - Profitability for polyester filament has improved significantly since September, with expectations for further profit increases in Q4 [9][10]. Summary by Sections Polyester Filament Sector - Polyester filament has entered a demand peak since September, with downstream textile operating rates consistently high, peaking at 69.45% [4][5]. - As of December 5, the operating rate for polyester filament was 90.15%, indicating strong production levels [4][5]. - Inventory levels for polyester filament (POY/FDY/DTY) are at 16.3/21.2/24.3 days, remaining low compared to the annual average [7][8]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices increased to $63.75 per barrel, reflecting a 0.87% rise from the previous week [18]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. increased to 549, indicating a slight uptick in drilling activity [29]. Refining Sector - The comprehensive price spread for major refined products in Singapore decreased to $19.06 per barrel, down by $0.57 from the previous week [54]. - Domestic refining margins are expected to improve as oil prices stabilize [51]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester filament sector, such as Tongkun Co., and bottle-grade PET producers like Wankai New Materials [12]. - It also suggests monitoring large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical due to expected improvements in cost structures [12]. - For upstream exploration and production, companies like CNOOC and offshore oil service firms are highlighted for their potential performance improvements [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty industry, despite recent underperformance compared to the market [4][5]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown weaker performance, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining by 2.0% from November 28 to December 5, 2025, underperforming the market [4][5]. - Douyin's performance in November met expectations, with domestic brands preparing actively for the upcoming Double 12 sales event, indicating a strong competitive landscape for domestic products [4][10]. - The report highlights the leading market share of Minoxidil products, particularly from Mandi International, which has established itself as a top brand in the hair growth sector [11][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The Shenwan Cosmetics Index fell by 2.2%, while the Shenwan Personal Care Index also dropped by 2.0%, both underperforming against the Shenwan A Index [4][5]. - The top-performing stocks in the sector included Juzhibio (+5.9%) and Hongmian Co. (+3.5%), while the worst performers were Kelao Co. (-7.6%) and Baiya Co. (-4.8%) [6]. Key Market Developments - Mandi International has dominated the Minoxidil market, achieving a revenue growth from 982 million yuan in 2022 to approximately 1.455 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 21.7% [12][13]. - The company has maintained a leading position in the market for ten consecutive years, with a market share of about 57% in the hair loss treatment sector and 71% in the Minoxidil product market as of 2024 [12][14]. E-commerce Insights - In November 2025, Douyin's domestic brand GMV showed significant growth, with brands like Han Shu and New Page experiencing double-digit increases [15][18]. - The overall retail sales of cosmetics in October 2025 grew by 9.6%, driven by the Double 11 shopping festival, indicating a robust recovery in consumer spending [18][20]. Company Announcements - Lin Qingxuan updated its IPO prospectus for the Hong Kong market, reporting a revenue of 1.052 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 98.3% [22][19]. - The company plans to expand its research and development team and explore international markets in Southeast Asia [22][19]. Market Trends - The Chinese consumer healthcare market is projected to grow from 9.313 billion yuan in 2018 to 16.420 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 9.9% [13]. - The report emphasizes the increasing market share of domestic brands in the skincare sector, with a notable rise in the competitive landscape against international brands [24].