2025 年 12 月 07 日 市场情绪得分继续回落，多项指标 维持震荡 ——量化择时周报 20251207 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 - 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 量 化 策 略 ⚫ 市场情绪得分周内继续回落：截至 12 月 5 日，市场情绪指标数值为 2.4，较上周五的 3.15 大幅降低，情绪得分保持快速下降，从情绪角度来看观点偏空。从所有分项指标分数之和 的变化来看，本周情绪指数综合得分周内波动下降。 ⚫ 情绪指标维持震荡分化：本周价量一致性再度回落，市场价量匹配程度下降，资金关注度 与标的涨幅相关性同步走弱，情绪端出现一定降温；科创 50 相对全 A 成交占比继 ...

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 5, 2025, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) with a PE of 21.1x and a PB of 1.8x, positioned at the 77th and 39th historical percentiles respectively [2][5] - The Shanghai 50 index has a PE of 11.9x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 63rd and 42nd percentiles [2][5] - The CSI 300 index has a PE of 14.0x and a PB of 1.5x, at the 62nd and 32nd percentiles [2][5] - The CSI 500 index shows a PE of 32.4x and a PB of 2.2x, at the 60th and 43rd percentiles [2][5] - The ChiNext index has a PE of 39.8x and a PB of 5.1x, at the 32nd and 57th percentiles [2][5] - The STAR 50 index has a PE of 149.6x and a PB of 5.9x, at the 95th and 62nd percentiles [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include Real Estate, Retail, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [2][3] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2][3] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the 15th percentile [2][3] Industry Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry chain continues to show weakness, with upstream polysilicon futures prices down 1.6% and silicon material prices stable [2][3] - Battery materials like cobalt and nickel saw increases of 2.2% and 0.4% respectively, while lithium hexafluorophosphate prices rose by 3.0% [2][3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 1.8%, while iron ore prices fell by 0.3% [3] - The national cement price index decreased by 0.4%, and glass prices showed mixed trends with a 0.7% increase in spot prices [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.1%, while wholesale pork prices decreased by 0.8% [3] - The wholesale price index for liquor saw a slight decrease of 0.06% [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Excavator sales in November 2025 increased by 13.9% year-on-year, with domestic sales up by 9.1% and exports up by 18.8% [3] Technology TMT - China's semiconductor sales in October 2025 grew by 18.5% year-on-year, with global semiconductor sales increasing by 27.2% [3] Commodities - The Brent crude oil futures price rose by 1.1% to $63.86 per barrel, supported by OPEC+ decisions to maintain current production targets [3]

Group 1 - The North Exchange 50 index increased by 1.49%, indicating a market that is oscillating above the annual line, with trading volume increasing by 4.23% [7][17]. - The North Exchange market has shown increased activity in sectors such as satellite internet, edge AI, and humanoid robots, with notable stocks including Star Map Control, Haoshen Electronics, and Sanxie Electric [7][8]. - Eight North Exchange thematic public funds are entering their second open period, with a total estimated scale of 4.58 billion yuan, and there is speculation about a potential market rebound after December 20 [8][10]. Group 2 - This week, one new stock, Jingchuang Electric, was listed on the North Exchange, with a first-day price increase of 330.74% and a turnover rate of 93.84% [28][29]. - The North Exchange had 109 stocks rise and 173 stocks fall, resulting in a rise-fall ratio of 0.63, with Haoshen Electronics and Youji Co. leading the gains [35][39]. - The average PE ratio for the North Exchange is 81.73 times, with a median of 39.47 times, while the trading volume reached 3.069 billion shares, reflecting a 1.09% increase [21][22]. Group 3 - The new third board saw six new listings and ten delistings this week, with planned financing of 49 million yuan and completed financing of 38 million yuan [46][48]. - The North Exchange's financing balance increased to 7.510 billion yuan, up by 0.38 billion yuan from the previous week [24][22]. - The thematic public funds have reported a weak performance in their heavy-weight stocks, with an average decline of 8.29% since the National Day [9][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period (2025.12.01 - 2025.12.07) decreased significantly compared to the previous period, and the expected issuance and net financing in the next period (2025.12.08 - 2025.12.14) are similar to the current period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is 11.22 years, shorter than the previous period's 15.41 years [2]. - The issuance of new special-purpose bonds has started using the 50 billion yuan remaining quota, and the cumulative issuance in the current and next periods exceeds the original quota by 7.02 billion yuan and 12.02 billion yuan respectively. As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 92.8% and 101.6% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to reach 95.5% and 102.7% considering the next period's expected issuance [2]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds in December 2025 is 157.2 billion yuan, including 49.5 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds. As of December 5, 2025, 16 regions have disclosed their planned issuance, with the same regions issuing 420.3 billion yuan and 800 million yuan in the same period last year, and the whole country issuing 1091.3 billion yuan and 2.11 billion yuan [2]. - In the current period, 740 million yuan of special new special-purpose bonds were issued, 110 million yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and 5.02 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts were issued. The 2 trillion yuan quota for special-purpose bonds to replace hidden debts this year has been fully issued [2]. - The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds widened comprehensively in the current period, and the weekly turnover rate increased compared to the previous period. As of December 5, 2025, the spreads of 10-year and 30-year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 19.20BP and 24.29BP respectively, widening by 1.32BP and 1.80BP compared to November 28, 2025 [2]. - Currently, the spreads of 15-year, 20-year, and 30-year local government bonds over treasury bonds, especially the 15-year ones, have certain cost-effectiveness [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds in the current period decreased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - The total issuance of local government bonds in the current period (2025.12.01 - 2025.12.07) was 108.717 billion yuan (102.54 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance in the next period (2025.12.08 - 2025.12.14) is 106.954 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is 11.22 years, shorter than the previous period's 15.41 years [2][9]. - As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 92.8% and 101.6% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to reach 95.5% and 102.7% considering the next period's expected issuance. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 91.2%/99.5% and 92.0%/99.5% respectively, and in 2023 was 95.0%/96.7% and 96.1%/97.9% respectively [2][18]. - In the current period, 740 million yuan of special new special-purpose bonds were issued, 110 million yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and 5.02 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts were issued. As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special-purpose bonds was 135.83 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 200 billion yuan, reaching 100% of the issuance progress, and the quota for this year has been fully issued; since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts (possibly from the 50 billion yuan remaining quota mentioned in the Ministry of Finance's press conference on October 17) was 27.06 billion yuan [2][20]. 2. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds widened comprehensively in the current period, and the weekly turnover rate increased compared to the previous period - As of December 5, 2025, the spreads of 10-year and 30-year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 19.20BP and 24.29BP respectively, widening by 1.32BP and 1.80BP compared to November 28, 2025, and were at the 49.80% and 94.30% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2][33]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.87%, up from the previous period's 0.69%. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Jilin, and Tianjin were better than the national average [2].

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 相关研究 - 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 07 日 供应格局趋紧，工业金属价格大幅 上行 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251201-20251205 本期投资提示： 行 业 点 评 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 有色金属 、 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.37% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the companies in the higher education sector, specifically for New Higher Education Group and Xijiao International Holdings [8][11]. Core Insights - The profitability of higher education companies is expected to rebound as the peak of cost increases has passed, with improvements in operational efficiency anticipated due to reduced capital expenditures [4][11]. - New Higher Education Group reported a revenue of 2.6 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, with adjusted net profit reaching 812 million yuan, up 5.2% [6][8]. - The student structure is continuously optimized, with an increase in the proportion of undergraduate students, leading to higher average tuition fees [6][7]. - The report highlights the importance of maintaining high-quality education and the strategic focus on enhancing educational facilities to improve student learning environments [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Higher Education Sector - The education index increased by 1% during the week, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.8 percentage points [5]. - New Higher Education Group's student enrollment decreased slightly by 0.6% to 139,000, but the proportion of undergraduate students increased, contributing to an 8.1% rise in average tuition fees to 16,700 yuan per year [6][7]. - The company’s operational costs rose by 9.2% to 1.68 billion yuan, with significant increases in labor costs, which grew by 14.7% [3][7]. 2. Cost Management and Profitability - The peak of cost increases is believed to have passed, with capital expenditures decreasing from 920 million yuan in fiscal year 2024 to 690 million yuan in fiscal year 2025 [4][8]. - The report anticipates a recovery in gross profit margins starting from fiscal year 2026, with projected profits for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 adjusted to 880 million yuan and 1 billion yuan, respectively [8][11]. - Xijiao International Holdings reported a revenue of 3.96 billion yuan for fiscal year 2025, a 6.1% increase, while net profit decreased by 36.9% [9][10]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on Hong Kong-listed higher education companies, as profitability is expected to improve with reduced capital expenditures and a more favorable revenue distribution model [13]. - Companies such as New Higher Education Group, Xijiao International Holdings, and others are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their strategic adjustments and market positioning [13].

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 5, 2025, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 21.1 times and PB at 1.8 times, positioned at the historical 77% and 39% percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 PE is at 11.9 times and PB at 1.3 times, at the historical 63% and 42% percentiles [2] - The CSI 300 PE is at 14 times and PB at 1.5 times, at the historical 62% and 32% percentiles [2] - The CSI 500 PE is at 32.4 times and PB at 2.2 times, at the historical 60% and 43% percentiles [2] - The CSI 1000 PE is at 46.5 times and PB at 2.4 times, at the historical 66% and 44% percentiles [2] - The National Index 2000 PE is at 59.5 times and PB at 2.6 times, at the historical 76% and 60% percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index PE is at 39.8 times and PB at 5.1 times, at the historical 32% and 57% percentiles [2] - The Sci-Tech 50 PE is at 149.6 times and PB at 5.9 times, at the historical 95% and 62% percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index/CSI 300 PE is at 2.8 times and PB at 3.5 times, at the historical 20% and 57% percentiles [2] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Retail, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2] Industry Sentiment Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, prices continue to show weakness, with upstream polysilicon futures down 1.6% and spot prices stable [3] - Battery materials like cobalt and nickel saw increases of 2.2% and 0.4% respectively, while lithium hexafluorophosphate rose by 3.0% [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 1.8%, while iron ore prices fell by 0.3% [3] - The national cement price index decreased by 0.4%, and glass prices showed mixed trends with a 0.7% increase in spot prices [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.1%, while wholesale pork prices decreased by 0.8% [3] - The wholesale price index for liquor saw a slight decrease of 0.06% [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Excavator sales in November 2025 increased by 13.9% year-on-year, with domestic sales up by 9.1% [3] Technology TMT - China's semiconductor sales in October 2025 grew by 18.5% year-on-year, with global semiconductor sales up by 27.2% [3] Cyclical Industries - The copper price increased by 4.4%, while Brent crude oil futures rose by 1.1% to $63.86 per barrel [3]

Group 1 - The North Exchange 50 index increased by 1.49%, remaining above the annual line, with trading volume increasing by 4.23% week-on-week [9][20][25] - Eight North Exchange thematic public funds entered their second open period, with a total estimated scale of 45.8 billion yuan, indicating potential market recovery after December 20 [10][12][14] - The thematic public funds have reported a weak performance in their heavy holdings, with an average decline of 8.29% since the National Day, suggesting a need to monitor net subscription data post-open period [11][10][14] Group 2 - The North Exchange saw 109 stocks rise and 173 fall, with a decline ratio of 0.63, indicating a significant number of stocks are underperforming [37] - The trading volume for the North Exchange was 30.69 billion shares, with a total transaction value of 693.83 billion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week increase [25][20] - The average PE (TTM) for the North Exchange is 81.73 times, with a median of 39.47 times, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to other exchanges [24][20] Group 3 - This week, one new stock, Jingchuang Electric, was listed on the North Exchange, with a first-day increase of 330.74% and a turnover rate of 93.84% [30][31] - The new three-board market saw six new listings and ten delistings, with a total of 5991 companies currently listed [49][51] - The new three-board market raised 0.38 billion yuan this week, with no companies raising over 1 billion yuan [51][55]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the overseas education sector, particularly highlighting the potential rebound in profitability for higher education companies as they enhance their operational efficiency and educational quality [4][16]. Core Insights - The profitability of higher education companies is expected to improve as they transition from a phase of high costs to a more stable operational environment, driven by an increase in the quality of education and student enrollment structures [4][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining high-quality education and optimizing student demographics, which is reflected in the rising average tuition fees and accommodation costs [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Overseas Education - The education index increased by 1% during the week, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.8 percentage points, with a year-to-date increase of 8.2% [6]. - New Higher Education Group reported a revenue of 2.6 billion yuan for FY25, a 7.8% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net profit rising by 5.2% to 812 million yuan [2][7]. - The student enrollment decreased slightly by 0.6%, but the proportion of undergraduate students increased, leading to an 8.1% rise in average tuition fees to 16,700 yuan per year [2][7]. - The company’s operational costs grew by 9.2% to 1.68 billion yuan, with labor costs rising significantly, indicating a focus on maintaining educational quality [3][8]. - The report predicts that the peak of cost increases has passed, and profitability is set to rebound, with expected net profits of 880 million yuan and 1 billion yuan for FY26 and FY27, respectively [4][9]. Key Companies - Xijiao International Holdings reported a revenue of 3.96 billion yuan for FY25, a 6.1% increase, but net profit fell by 36.9% due to previous high costs [11][12]. - The company has optimized its school management by reducing the number of institutions, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [12][13]. - The report suggests focusing on several key players in the sector, including New Oriental, TAL Education, and Huazhong Education, as they are expected to benefit from the improving market conditions [16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends attention to Hong Kong-listed higher education companies, as the profitability outlook is improving with reduced capital expenditures and stabilized operational costs [16]. - It also highlights the potential for growth in vocational education companies, particularly those adapting to market demands and enhancing their service offerings [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting optimism for the new housing market and the revaluation of shopping center values [1]. Core Insights - The real estate sector is expected to continue bottoming out, with core cities stabilizing sooner. Two major opportunities are identified: the elevation of housing policies and the strong performance of quality commercial enterprises during a monetary easing cycle, which may lead to a revaluation of consumer-oriented commercial real estate assets [1][2]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - In the week of November 29 to December 5, 2025, 34 key cities recorded a total new housing transaction volume of 2.762 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 9%. The transaction volume for first and second-tier cities rose by 9%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a 9.7% increase [2][3]. - For December (up to December 5), the transaction volume in 34 cities was 1.871 million square meters, representing a year-on-year decrease of 23.6% but a month-on-month increase of 68.5% compared to November [3][5]. Second-hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, 13 cities recorded a total second-hand housing transaction volume of 1.118 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 3.6%. Cumulatively for December, the transaction volume was 979,000 square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 36% [9][10]. Inventory and Sales - In the week of November 29 to December 5, 2025, 15 cities launched 980,000 square meters of new housing, with a total transaction volume of 940,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.96. The average months of inventory for the last three months was 23 months, a decrease of 0.3 months [17][18]. Policy and News Tracking Real Estate Sector - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized the steady development of real estate investment trusts (REITs) and asset securitization. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) expanded the asset scope for REITs to include urban renewal projects [26][27]. - Local policies include a housing subsidy of up to 200,000 yuan for low-income groups in Changzhou and new housing subsidies in Nanning for multi-child families [26][29]. Company Announcements - Several real estate companies reported their November sales data, with notable declines in transaction volumes and values. For instance, Greentown China reported a 32.6% decrease in sales volume and a 44.8% decrease in sales value year-on-year [31][33]. - Financing activities included a 25 billion yuan credit facility application by a subsidiary of Gemdale Group, secured by equity in a development company [31][33]. Market Performance Review - The SW Real Estate Index fell by 2.15%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index, which rose by 1.28%. The real estate sector ranked 30th out of 31 sectors in terms of performance [37][40].