Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The cement industry is expected to benefit from the improvement in infrastructure and real estate demand, with a long-term view of continuous optimization in supply structure. Recommended companies include Shengfeng Cement, Tapai Group, Huaxin Cement, Western Cement, and Tibet Tianlu [20][21] - The report highlights a significant drop in the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.92% [2][15] - The cement price has recently hit a low, with the average price in East China down by 17 CNY/ton year-on-year, indicating potential for price rebound due to the implementation of price coordination mechanisms [3][14] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.54%, while the construction materials sector (CITIC) increased by 3.63%. Notable stock performances include Yamaton (+34.9%), Zhongcai Technology (+20.7%), and Kaisheng New Energy (+19.6%) [12][14] Recent Tracking of Key Sub-sectors - Cement: The national cement market price fell by 1.3% week-on-week, with average shipment rates around 42% due to weak demand [17] - Glass: The photovoltaic glass market saw a general decline in new orders, with prices for 2.0mm coated panels down by 2.27% [18] - Fiberglass: The market for non-alkali yarn remains stable, with prices holding steady at around 3669 CNY/ton [19] Long-term Value of Traditional Building Materials - The report emphasizes that traditional building materials are nearing a cyclical bottom, while new materials like carbon fiber are expected to see sustained growth due to high downstream demand and domestic substitution opportunities [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 10.02 CNY, based on a PE ratio of 30 times for the year 2025 [5]. Core Insights - The company has been deeply engaged in the electromagnetic wire sector for over 30 years, focusing on copper and aluminum-based electromagnetic wires and special conductors, with a dual-driven strategy to explore new fields [1][13]. - The traditional business of enameled wire is steadily growing, with a strong market position and stable revenue from automotive and electronic wires, while special conductors are expected to create a new growth curve for the company [1][2]. - The demand for AI servers is driving the growth of the silver-plated copper market, with the company positioned as a leader in this segment through its subsidiary, Hengfeng Special Conductors [2][3]. Summary by Sections Traditional Business: Enameled Wire and Automotive, Electronic Wires - The enameled wire market is a blue ocean, with the company holding a leading position in production and sales, capturing a market share of 12.09% in 2022 [31][33]. - The automotive wire harness industry is expanding, driven by increasing vehicle production and the rise of electric vehicles, with the market expected to exceed 120 billion CNY by 2025 [41][44]. - The company has established strategic partnerships with well-known clients in the home appliance and industrial motor sectors, ensuring stable cash flow [48]. Special Conductors: Growth Driven by AI Servers - The global AI server market is projected to grow from 19.5 billion USD in 2022 to 34.7 billion USD in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.3% [2][49]. - Hengfeng Special Conductors, a wholly-owned subsidiary, is a leading player in the domestic silver-plated copper market, benefiting from high technical barriers and competitive advantages [2][3]. - The company is also involved in high-temperature superconductors, with its stake in Shanghai Superconductor expected to benefit from the commercialization wave in this field [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 246.7 billion CNY, 273.4 billion CNY, and 308.7 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.5%, 10.8%, and 12.9% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 7.18 billion CNY, 8.51 billion CNY, and 10.09 billion CNY for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 27.8%, 18.5%, and 18.6% [4].

Group 1: Childcare Subsidy Policy - The childcare subsidy system in China has formed a progressive framework of "childcare support - economic relief - cash subsidies," aimed at reducing care costs and enhancing fertility willingness, especially among low-income groups [1][27] - The government has shifted fiscal spending from investment to improving people's livelihoods, emphasizing the need to optimize the fiscal expenditure structure to strengthen basic livelihood financial support [1][28] - The "localized" nature of subsidies is seen as a refined governance experiment under tight fiscal conditions, serving as an important tool for current fiscal policy with a core consumption stimulation effect based on the "multiplier effect" [1][29] Group 2: Marine Economy and Technology - The marine economy is projected to exceed 10 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for 7.8% of the national GDP, highlighting its significance as a growth driver [3] - The global regulatory framework for stablecoins is accelerating, with recent legislative developments in the US and Hong Kong, which may enhance the internationalization of the Renminbi [3] - Breakthroughs in brain-computer interface technology are paving the way for commercialization, with significant clinical trials indicating rapid advancements in the field [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Maternal and Infant Products - The maternal and infant products market is expected to reach 4.68 trillion yuan by 2025, with a growth rate exceeding 7%, driven by increasing disposable income and consumption capabilities [8][36] - The early education and childcare market is anticipated to expand due to government support, with a focus on integrating medical and educational services [8] - The assisted reproductive services market is projected to grow to 49.6 billion yuan by 2023, benefiting from increased fertility willingness driven by childcare subsidies [8]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The special electronic fabric industry is experiencing high demand driven by the global increase in computing power expectations, with continued upward revisions in the outlook for low dielectric and low expansion electronic fabrics [1][13] - Low dielectric electronic fabric is a high-performance material that reduces energy loss during signal transmission, enhancing signal integrity and speed, primarily used in communication infrastructure and semiconductor packaging [2][14] - Low expansion electronic fabric is mainly applied in high-end mobile phone chip packaging, significantly improving substrate reliability by reducing the expansion coefficient by 35% compared to traditional E-glass [3][24] Summary by Sections Special Electronic Fabric - High-performance special glass fiber fabrics include low dielectric (LowDK) and low expansion (LowCTE) electronic fabrics, with applications in communication infrastructure and semiconductor packaging [13] - Low dielectric fabric is essential for AI servers and switches, with major customers including Nvidia and Arista, showing a revenue growth rate of over 70% for leading companies [14][21] - Low expansion fabric is crucial for high-end chip packaging, with a thermal expansion coefficient close to silicon chips, enhancing reliability [24] Key Companies - **China National Materials Technology**: Focused on low dielectric electronic fabric, with production capacity expected to increase from 26 million meters to 35 million meters by April 2025, driven by rising demand in AI and communication sectors [29][30] - **Macro Technology**: Engaged in high-end electronic fabric production, with a recent project expected to enhance capacity and performance, achieving a revenue increase of 29.52% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [32] - **International Composite Materials**: Early research in special fabrics, capable of elastic production of low dielectric products, with significant advancements in production technology [33] - **Fihua**: A leading producer of quartz glass materials, with products used in various high-tech fields including optical and semiconductor applications [36] - **JianTao Group**: Set to launch a low dielectric production line in late 2025, aiming to capture new growth opportunities in AI computing [37] - **China Jushi**: As a leading player in the glass fiber industry, actively developing low dielectric products to overcome technical challenges [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - US economic data improved, but tariff risks are approaching. Optimism about the US economic outlook increased, driving up the US stock market, while European stocks fell due to China's anti - dumping duties on EU brandy. Market expectations for interest rate cuts decreased, and there were various developments in trade negotiations and fiscal policies [1][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Overseas Market One - Week Review - **Equity Markets**: US stocks rose, with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq up 1.72%, 2.30%, and 1.62% respectively. European, Japanese, and South Korean stocks fell. The decline of European stocks was due to China's anti - dumping duties on EU brandy [1][10]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar fluctuated and slightly declined, with the dollar index down 0.28%. The euro, yen, and RMB appreciated against the US dollar [10]. - **Interest Rates**: US Treasury yields rose. The 2Y and 10Y US Treasuries rose 15BP and 6BP respectively, as market expectations for interest rate cuts cooled [11]. - **Commodities**: Oil prices rose, with WTI crude up 3.0%. Gold slightly declined, with COMEX gold down 0.3% [11]. 2. Overseas Policies and Key News 2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - Fed Chairman Powell remained neutral, while other officials were hawkish. Market expectations for interest rate cuts cooled significantly, with the expected number of cuts this year dropping from 3 to 2 [2][27]. 2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - **Trade Negotiations**: The US and Vietnam reached an agreement. Vietnam will pay a 20% tariff to the US and a 40% tariff on transshipment goods. The US hopes to open the Vietnamese market [3][32]. - **"Big and Beautiful" Act**: Trump signed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, raising the US debt ceiling by $5 trillion. It is expected to increase the US deficit by nearly $3.4 trillion in the next decade [3][32]. 3. Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking 3.1 Overall Prosperity - Bloomberg's median forecast shows that the US recession probability is 37.5% (40% a month ago), and the eurozone recession probability is 30%. The economic activities in the US and Germany cooled [39][41]. 3.2 Employment - The number of initial jobless claims decreased to 233,000, lower than expected and lower than the same period in 2024. The number of continuous unemployment benefit recipients remained flat [46]. 3.3 Demand - US retail sales rebounded, airport security checks decreased, and railway transportation increased. Mortgage rates slightly decreased, and real - estate market activities slightly picked up [51]. 3.4 Production - The US production side remained more prosperous than the same period last year, with high utilization rates of crude steel and refinery capacities [55]. 3.5 Shipping - International freight rates continued to decline. The export demand from Chinese ports in Ningbo and Shanghai also decreased [57][59]. 3.6 Price - US retail gasoline prices fell, but inflation expectations in the swap market rose [61]. 3.7 Financial Conditions - US financial pressure decreased, and credit spreads narrowed [64]. 4. Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminders - The suspension period of "reciprocal tariffs" expires, and the Fed will release the minutes of the June FOMC meeting [6].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperforming the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Views - The basic metals market is primarily driven by macro pricing, with copper and aluminum experiencing high-level fluctuations. Copper prices initially rose due to increased expectations of interest rate cuts but later fell due to better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data and uncertainties in the foreign trade environment [1][12] - Aluminum prices increased, supported by positive manufacturing PMI data and optimistic automotive sales, despite a reduction in production of aluminum rods and plates [1][20] - Precious metals saw mixed performance, with gold prices declining slightly while silver prices increased, influenced by geopolitical factors and changing market risk preferences [2][25] Summary by Sections Basic Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Prices fluctuated at high levels, with a current price of 79,830 CNY/ton. Domestic copper inventory increased slightly, indicating a complex supply-demand dynamic [1][12] - Aluminum: Prices rose to 20,555 CNY/ton, driven by improved manufacturing data and rising energy prices. The theoretical demand for electrolytic aluminum decreased due to reduced production of aluminum rods and plates [1][20] - Precious Metals: Gold averaged 766.71 CNY/gram, down 1.00% from the previous week, while silver averaged 8,738 CNY/kg, up 0.29% [2][25] Small Metals - Tungsten: Prices showed resilience with black tungsten concentrate averaging 173,000 CNY/ton, reflecting limited supply growth [3][55] - Rare Earths: Prices for light rare earths increased, indicating a recovery in the fundamentals of the sector, with expectations for significant improvements in the third quarter [3][3] Market Predictions - The report anticipates that copper prices will range between 79,500 and 81,000 CNY/ton in the coming week, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate between 20,300 and 21,000 CNY/ton [13][21] - For precious metals, gold is projected to trade between 750 and 800 CNY/gram, and silver between 8,200 and 9,200 CNY/kg [26][26]

港股公司报告 | 首次覆盖报告 2）黄鸡业务：种源优势构筑核心支撑，产品结构顺应行业趋势。在种源方面，公司在黄鸡 育种领域构建了行业领先的研发体系和基因资源库，满足市场多元化的需求。目前公司已构 建包含 45 个品系的黄鸡种质矩阵。通过持续优化的产品矩阵，公司市占率实现跨越式增长， 2018-2024 年间公司黄鸡市场份额从 1.3%跃升至 2.6%，完成市占率翻倍突破。在产品方面， 顺应消费需求迭代引发的品类格局重构，重点发展中速鸡和慢速鸡产品。另外，面对当下黄 鸡屠宰后品质可视化标识体系缺失的困局，不断优化遗传改良技术，针对黄鸡冰鲜上市后体 重差异大、肤色不一致等影响消费者购买的痛点做出相应的育种改善，使其冰鲜上市的黄鸡 在体型、肤色等方面更加符合消费者购买的"审美观"，同时也有助于后续销售量的持续增长。 3）屠宰业务：纵向深化产业链，打造高端食品生态圈建设者。行业维度看，布局屠宰加工 是大势所趋，目前牧原、温氏、唐人神等各家生猪养殖企业纷纷加码屠宰业务，通过屠宰业 务打通养殖端到食品端的链路。公司自身维度看，公司拓展屠宰加工业务一方面是发挥上下 游一体化优势，在西南地区实现养殖与屠宰相匹配；另一方面，公 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [6] Core Viewpoints - The construction sector has underperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 0.72% compared to the 1.78% rise in the CSI 300 index, resulting in a 1.06 percentage point lag [5][26] - There is an increasing market focus on low-valuation, high-dividend stocks within the construction sector, particularly among central state-owned enterprises (SOEs), local SOEs, international engineering firms, and private enterprises [14][34] - The construction sector's central SOEs, such as China Chemical, have significantly lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratios compared to their peers, with China Chemical's PE at 7.99, placing it in the 6.8% percentile since 2010 [15][14] - Local SOEs like Shandong Road and Anhui Construction show low PE ratios of 3.94 and 6.10, respectively, with dividend yields exceeding those of central SOEs [16][14] - Private enterprises such as Jianghe Group and Sanwei Chemical also demonstrate strong dividend capabilities, with yields of 8.90% and 4.83% respectively [19][14] Summary by Sections Low-Valuation Stocks Worth Attention - Central SOEs like China Chemical and China Railway Construction have low PB ratios, with China Railway at 0.41 and China Railway at 0.45 [14][15] - Local SOEs such as Shandong Road and Anhui Construction have PE ratios significantly below 10, indicating potential investment opportunities [16][14] - Private enterprises like Jianghe Group and Yaxiang Integration have returned to reasonable valuation levels, with PE ratios of 11.66 and 12.21 respectively [19][14] Market Performance Review - The construction index increased by 0.72% in the week from June 30 to July 4, lagging behind the CSI 300's 1.78% increase [5][26] - Notable individual stock performances included Chengbang Co. (+42.23%) and Hangzhou Garden (+31.16%) [5][26] Investment Recommendations - Focus on cyclical opportunities arising from improvements in construction activity, particularly in water conservancy, railways, and aviation sectors [34][35] - Highlight the potential of nuclear power investments and emerging business directions within the construction sector [36][34] - Emphasize investment opportunities in major hydropower projects and the deep-sea economy, with recommendations for companies involved in these sectors [37][34]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Wind All A Index Timing System - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to distinguish the overall market environment by analyzing the distance between long-term and short-term moving averages of the Wind All A Index[1][10][16] - **Model Construction Process**: - Define the long-term moving average (120-day) and short-term moving average (20-day) of the Wind All A Index[1][10] - Calculate the distance between the two moving averages: $$ \text{Distance} = \frac{\text{Short-term MA} - \text{Long-term MA}}{\text{Long-term MA}} $$ where the short-term MA is the 20-day moving average and the long-term MA is the 120-day moving average[1][10] - Monitor the distance value to determine market conditions. If the distance exceeds 3%, it signals a change from a volatile to an upward trend[1][10][16] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying market trends and providing signals for adjusting positions[1][10][16] Model Name: Industry Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model recommends industry sectors based on medium-term perspectives and current market trends[2][4][11] - **Model Construction Process**: - Analyze the performance and trends of various industry sectors[2][4][11] - Identify sectors with potential for reversal or growth, such as distressed reversal sectors, innovative drugs in Hong Kong stocks, and photovoltaic sectors benefiting from anti-involution[2][4][11] - Use the TWO BETA model to recommend technology sectors, focusing on military and communication industries[2][4][11] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides targeted industry recommendations based on current market conditions and trends[2][4][11] Model Name: Position Management Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model manages stock positions based on valuation indicators and short-term market trends[3][12] - **Model Construction Process**: - Evaluate the overall PE and PB ratios of the Wind All A Index[3][12] - Determine the stock position based on the valuation levels and short-term market trends. For example, with the Wind All A Index at a medium PE level (70th percentile) and a low PB level (30th percentile), the recommended position is 60%[3][12] - **Model Evaluation**: The model helps in managing stock positions effectively by considering valuation levels and market trends[3][12] Model Backtest Results Wind All A Index Timing System - **Distance between Moving Averages**: 2.52%[1][10][16] Industry Allocation Model - **Recommended Sectors**: Distressed reversal sectors, innovative drugs in Hong Kong stocks, photovoltaic sectors, technology sectors (military and communication), A-share banks, and gold stocks[2][4][11] Position Management Model - **Recommended Position**: 60%[3][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market is still in a favorable environment with the central bank maintaining a moderately loose policy, but there are potential disturbances. The third quarter may still be a good window for long - positions, but the time may be later [4][5][37]. - Short - term central bank's total - volume easing policies are relatively limited, and whether the capital interest rate will be further relaxed is worth discussing. The pricing of funds and certificates of deposit in the new steady - state needs further observation [4][21][37]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Performance this Week - From June 30 to July 4, the bond market showed a volatile and strong pattern, with most yields of interest - rate bonds declining. After the cross - quarter period, the funds were loose, and the overnight interest rate dropped to 1.3%. The medium - and short - term bonds performed strongly, and the interest rate of 50 - year treasury bonds decreased significantly. As of July 4, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 50Y treasury bonds changed by - 0.9BP, - 0.7BP, - 0.3BP, + 0.2BP, - 3.4BP respectively from last week, reaching 1.34%, 1.35%, 1.64%, 1.85%, 1.94% [1][8]. 3.2 Understanding the Boundary of Central Bank's Easing - **July Liquidity Situation**: In July, the liquidity usually shows a seasonal loosening trend. The reasons include that July is a small month for credit lending, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit decreases, and the seasonal return of wealth - management funds. However, there are concerns such as the impact of fiscal and tax periods, the pressure of government bond supply, and the increase in the maturity scale of open - market operations. The central bank's monetary policy attitude is crucial, and the marginal pricing and phased steady - state of funds and certificates of deposit may become clearer in the middle of the quarter [16][20]. - **Central Bank's Policy Tools**: In the short term, the probability of the central bank cutting the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates is low. It may prefer to use tools such as MLF renewal and outright reverse repurchase to inject liquidity. The central bank may restart treasury bond purchases during the peak of government bond supply, especially in August - September [3][21]. 3.3 Potential Disturbances in the Bond Market - **Fundamental Changes under Tariff Deduction**: After the Sino - US tariff mitigation, the external demand and export pressure have eased, the economic pessimistic expectations have been revised, and the long - term interest rate may face upward pressure. However, there is still uncertainty in subsequent tariff policies [26]. - **Stock - Bond "Seesaw" Effect**: If the fundamentals stabilize and the economic recovery expectation strengthens, the risk preference may shift, and the stock - bond "seesaw" effect may be more prominent, which may suppress the bond market [29]. - **Incremental Policy Tools**: It is necessary to pay attention to the effectiveness of wide - credit restoration under the strengthening of fiscal policies and the impact of new policy - based financial tools on the bond market. The new policy - based financial tools may have a scale of 50 billion yuan, and if deployed in the third quarter, they may boost the economy in the third and fourth quarters [33][34]. 3.4 Next Week's Key Focus - July 7: China's foreign exchange reserves in June, Japan's international reserves in June [38]. - July 8: Japan's current account balance in May, Germany's export value in May [38]. - July 9: China's CPI year - on - year and PPI year - on - year in June, Japan's M2 year - on - year in June [38]. - July 10: China's social financing data and credit data in June [38]. - July 11: Germany's CPI year - on - year in June, UK's trade balance in May [38].