行业报告 | 行业研究周报 金属与材料 证券研究报告 美元弱势叠加降息交易预期再起，有色偏强运行 基本金属：铜铝普涨。1）铜：本周铜价向上突破，沪铜收于 79920 元/吨。本周铜价受海外市场影响显著， 呈现重心上移后震荡特征。宏观层面，地缘局势缓和使不稳定因素暂减。基本面中，海外因 COMEX 与 LME 价差，货源向北美转移，LME 库存跌破 10 万吨，创近年同期较低水平（仅高于 2022 年），挤仓风险升 温，带动价格走高并传导至国内。国内冶炼厂出口积极性提升，国内库存随之下降；不过消费端表现冷清， 终端需求跟进不足。同时，铜精矿年中长单谈判价格环比续降，冶炼厂生产亏损压力凸显。整体而言，海 外挤仓风险推升铜价重心，但高铜价抑制国内需求，后续上涨驱动力或减弱。2）铝：本周铝价回落后上涨， 沪铝收于 20580 元/吨。供应方面，国内电解铝行业有复产、新投动作，集中在贵州、云南地区，理论开工 产能较上周增加，供应端压力有所上升。需求方面，铝棒产量减量集中于河南、广西、贵州；铝板产量大 体持稳，铝棒、铝板行业对电解铝理论需求减少。终端看，5 月地产市场平稳，但铝锭市场接货情绪转冷， 叠加伊以宣布停战，市场 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 25.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and a net profit of 3.6 billion, up 14% year-on-year, marking the eighth consecutive year of record high revenue and net profit [1]. - The gross margin decreased by 2 percentage points, influenced by changes in channel structure, product category mix, and rising costs of core raw materials [1]. - The company is focusing on high-quality development in its main down jacket business, with brand revenue reaching 18.5 billion, a 10% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company is expanding its omnichannel integration, with significant growth in online platforms and optimized offline store operations [3]. - The earnings forecast for FY26-28 has been slightly adjusted, with expected revenues of 28.4 billion, 31.1 billion, and 34.1 billion respectively, and net profits of 4 billion, 4.4 billion, and 5 billion respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for FY24/25 was 25.9 billion, with a gross margin of 57% and operating profit margin of 19% [1]. - The company achieved a continuous increase in operating profit, growing by 13% [1]. Brand and Product Development - The company is enhancing its brand value through initiatives like "China Good Down" and collaborations with local brands [2]. - The OEM business also saw a healthy growth of 26% year-on-year, contributing 3.4 billion to revenue [2]. Omnichannel Strategy - The company has developed a strong online presence with approximately 21 million members on Tmall and JD, and 10 million followers on Douyin [3]. - Offline, the company is focusing on optimizing store quality and enhancing operational efficiency [3]. Earnings Forecast - Adjusted earnings forecasts for FY26-28 indicate a slight increase in expected revenues and net profits compared to previous estimates [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set at HKD 3.12, indicating a potential upside in the next six months [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a mid-single-digit decline in total sales for the first quarter of FY25/26, with direct store sales area decreasing by 1.3% quarter-over-quarter and 12.3% year-over-year [1]. - The company is accelerating its diversification strategy by partnering with UK running gear brand soar and Norwegian high-end outdoor brand Norrøna, aiming to enhance its influence in the high-end outdoor market in China [2]. - The company is redefining its retail space by integrating elements from art, culture, and music to create an immersive shopping environment, while also leveraging online platforms to build a comprehensive retail ecosystem [3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - For the first quarter of FY25/26, total sales experienced a mid-single-digit decline, with direct store sales area down 1.3% from the previous quarter and 12.3% from the same period last year [1]. Strategic Partnerships - In 2025, the company announced exclusive operational partnerships with soar and Norrøna, focusing on full-chain operations in the Chinese market, which is seen as a strategic move to strengthen its position in the professional sports sector [2]. Retail Strategy - The company is adopting a flexible sales channel strategy, enhancing its retail network through innovative store designs and a dual online-offline resource integration, creating a holistic retail ecosystem [3]. Financial Forecast - The report maintains its earnings forecast, projecting revenues of RMB 26.5 billion, RMB 27.3 billion, and RMB 28.6 billion for FY26-28, with net profits of RMB 1.3 billion, RMB 1.5 billion, and RMB 1.7 billion respectively [4].

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant decline in small-cap crowding from 65% to 62.4%, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1][18] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring trading volume as a primary indicator of market overheating, with current trading volume remaining relatively low at around 1.2 trillion [1][18] - The report suggests that the current market environment is not overheated, with limited growth in financing balances, indicating a stable recovery phase [1][18] Group 2 - The deep-sea technology sector is identified as a key pillar of the marine power strategy, with significant growth potential in deep-sea materials, equipment, and digitalization [22][24] - The report recommends focusing on high-performance steel, titanium alloys, and composite materials in the deep-sea materials segment, which are crucial for deep-sea oil and gas resource development [22][24] - In the deep-sea equipment sector, it notes a projected 13.8% increase in shipbuilding completion volume in 2024, highlighting the growth of China's shipbuilding industry [22][24] Group 3 - The report on the banking sector indicates that the recent capital injection will enhance the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratios of major state-owned banks, positioning them favorably compared to global peers [7] - It specifically points out that China Bank and Postal Savings Bank are expected to benefit significantly from the capital injection, which may positively influence their future credit issuance [7] - The report suggests a cautious outlook on the banking sector due to potential macroeconomic fluctuations and asset quality concerns [7] Group 4 - The report on the agricultural sector identifies COFCO Technology as a leading player in corn deep processing, with a focus on sustainable business models and increasing profitability [9] - It highlights the company's plans to expand its production capacity for fructose syrup and citric acid, indicating a strategic move to capitalize on market opportunities [9] - The report anticipates that COFCO Technology's dividend value will become more pronounced as corn prices stabilize and improve [9] Group 5 - The report on the electronic sector discusses the structural improvement in the main business of Jingwei Hengrun, with a focus on the growth of body domain controllers and advanced driving assistance systems [8] - It projects significant revenue growth for the company, estimating revenues of 69.97 billion, 87.26 billion, and 106.97 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [8] - The report assigns a "hold" rating, indicating a cautious but optimistic outlook on the company's performance [8]

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 实操视角下的信用主体骑乘库优化 证券研究报告 信用策略周报 20250629 本周聚焦：跨季信用表现如何？7 月，信用博弈哪些结构性机会？ 一、信用，抹平凸点收益 经历前期持续上涨后，当周信用表现趋弱，收益率及利差多数走阔， 其中：截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日，中短票收益率曲线上 3Y、5Y 凸性稍大， 对应期限收益率及信用利差当周明显压缩。 此外，城投债仍具备配置价值，尤其是中低等级下沉品种和 7 年期左 右超长品种，当前来看票息仍相对丰厚，二级"抢券"情绪仍在。 三、理财跨季扰动可控 近几年，理财资产配置结构上更加注重流动性的改善，季末回表对信 用债的扰动有所趋弱：随着持仓资产中存款、存单的比例提高，季末回表 直接减持债券或是赎回产品的压力便不那么直观。 从近期理财配置信用债的情况也能感受一二：6 月最后一周，理财二 级净买入普信债规模小幅下降，但仍继续增持二永债等品种。 四、7 月，信用控久期 站在当前节点往后看，有几个问题值得讨论： 第一，7 月跨季后，理财迎来规模增长，考虑到 5 月存款降息幅度较 大，6 月银行存在回表诉求反应还有所时滞，这整体对 7 月理财规模 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 美股新高，原油大跌 证券研究报告 2025 年 06 月 29 日 海外经济跟踪周报 20250629 海外市场复盘（6.23-6.27） 本周海外主要股指普遍收涨。一是对伊朗以色列局势的担忧降温；二是因 为个别联储官员放鸽、特朗普喊话降息和降低油价，令年内降息预期从 2 次上升至 3 次；三是芯片和科技股发力；本周标普和纳指创新高，VIX 指 数下跌。 美元下跌、美债收益率下行。本周个别联储官员放鸽、特朗普喊话降息、 鲍威尔在国会听证会上继续强调观望但态度开始"端水"；油价大幅回调、 抹去以伊冲突以来的涨幅；周五公布 PCE 通胀超预期但超出的幅度有限， 年内降息预期从 2 次上升至 3 次，美元和美债下行。 油价和黄金下跌。中东局势担忧下降，特朗普强调降低油价，令油价在此 前连续 3 周收涨后本周大跌，抹去以伊冲突以来的涨幅。地缘冲突风险下 降、美国标普 PMI 等经济数据稳健、经济陷入衰退的概率下降，黄金回调。 海外央行动态 本周，美联储官员密集发声，立场不一。鸽派代表有美联储理事鲍曼，表 示可能支持 7 月降息；鹰派代表有哈玛克、博斯蒂克、柯林斯等。美联储 主席鲍威尔本周在 ...

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 量化择时周报：突破震荡上轨后如何应对? 突破震荡上轨后如何应对? 上周周报(20250622)认为：短期市场宏观不确定性增加和指数在震荡格局 上沿位置的压制下，成交仍未到达低位，风险偏好较难快速提升，继续维 持中性偏低仓位，等待缩量信号。最终 wind 全 A 全周表现大超预期，上 涨 3.56%。市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票的中证 2000 上涨 5.55%，中 盘股中证 500 下跌 3.98%，沪深 300 上涨 1.95%，上证 50 上涨 1.27%;上周中 信一级行业中，表现较强行业包括综合金融、计算机，综合金融上涨 14.48%， 石油石化、食品饮料表现较弱，石油石化下跌 1.45%。上周成交活跃度上， 非银金融和国防军工资金流入明显。 从择时体系来看，我们定义的用来区别市场整体环境的 wind 全 A 长期均 线（120 日）和短期均线（20 日）的距离继续扩大，最新数据显示 20 日 线收于 5168，120 日线收于 5079 点，短期均线继续位于长线均线之上， 两线差值由上周的 1.09%扩大至 1.76%，距离绝对值继续小于 3%， ...

策略报告 | 投资策略 A 股策略周思考 证券研究报告 上证攻坚新高后，怎么看？ 市场思考：如何看待指数后续节奏？ 1）由于整体市场的显著放量，上周小盘拥挤度出现明显下行。指标从 65% 下行至 62.4%，目前的幅度已经与 25 年 4 月比较接近，1 月幅度则更大。 2）前两次后续市场出现调整的背景是市场处于成交额减量+小盘拥挤度上 行，表现在市场出现调整之前先出现了缩圈至小盘的现象，而上周以前，市 场存量稳定。这一轮从 4 月初挖坑以后开始上行，但期间成交额（MA20） 均处于 1.2 万亿左右的相对低位，在修复过程中并没有出现过热的情况。另 外，本轮从 4 月初至今的行情并没有过热，融资余额增幅较小。 3）复盘 2014 年，14 年上半年小盘持续跑赢大盘，像沪深 300 这类的大盘 指数的收盘价在 14 年的 3-6 月份创 2013 年以来的新低，小盘表现更强的 这个特征和现在相似。到了 14 年下半年，在 14 年 7 月-8 月上旬和 14 年 11 月-12 月也出现了【小盘拥挤度下行】+【成交额上行】这个组合，全 A 指数上行新高。另外，期间在 14 年 8 月下旬-10 月又回到了小盘风 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The "Everbright Convertible Bond" model reappears. The maturity repayment pressure of the "Pufa Convertible Bond" has decreased, and the allocation difficulty of bank convertible bonds has further increased. Mid - large - cap high - quality convertible bonds are expected to benefit from the spillover of "fixed income +" fund allocation demand [11]. - The current A - share market valuation is recovering. The domestic economic fundamentals and capital market may gradually start a weak resonance. Considering the influence of refinancing policies, the subsequent issuance pressure of convertible bonds is not expected to be high. However, as the stock market warms up, the inflow of incremental funds into convertible bonds drives the valuation to a historical high, and attention should be paid to the risk of valuation correction. In terms of terms, continue to pay attention to the downward revision game space, be vigilant against the forced redemption risk, and appropriately pay attention to the short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special Topic and Outlook 3.1.1. The Reappearance of the "Everbright Convertible Bond" Model - Qilu Bank announced that the "Qilu Convertible Bond" is expected to trigger redemption. From June 24th to June 26th, Qilu Bank's stock price closed above the redemption price line for three consecutive days, only two trading days away from triggering redemption [10]. - As of June 25th, Xinfeng No. 1 single asset management plan under Cinda Securities increased its holdings of Pufa Bank's convertible bonds, and then transferred them to Cinda Investment on June 26th. On June 27th, the scale of the "Pufa Convertible Bond" decreased, and its conversion premium rate remained around 7%. Similar operations were carried out on the "Everbright Convertible Bond" before its maturity, which greatly alleviated the maturity repayment pressure. As of June 27th, the remaining scale of the Pufa Convertible Bond was 38.211 billion yuan, and its maturity repayment pressure decreased [11]. 3.1.2. Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week, the market generally rose, with high trading enthusiasm. From Monday to Wednesday, most Shenwan industries rose, with the non - banking sector leading and the TMT and mid - stream manufacturing sectors having relatively high increases. On Thursday, the market had a narrow - range correction, and on Friday, it showed a volatile trend, with the banking sector leading the decline [12]. - In the stock market outlook, the current A - share market valuation is recovering. The rebound of export orders drove a narrow - range recovery of the May PMI. Policies such as large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in are expected to boost domestic demand, but the export growth rate may decline. For convertible bonds, the subsequent issuance pressure is not expected to be high. Pay attention to the risk of valuation correction, the downward revision game space, forced redemption risk, and short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds. Industries to focus on include hot topics, domestic demand directions, central state - owned enterprises represented by "central - headed" stocks, and the military industry [12][13]. 3.2. Weekly Tracking of the Convertible Bond Market 3.2.1. The Equity Market Rose, with TMT, Military, and Non - Banking Sectors Leading - This week, major equity market indices rose. The Wind All - A Index rose 3.56%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.91%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose 5.69%. The market style was more inclined to small - cap value. Among small - cap indices, the CSI 1000 Index rose 4.62%, and the STAR 50 Index rose 3.17% [17]. - Twenty - eight Shenwan industry indices rose, and three industries declined. The computer, national defense and military, and non - banking finance industries led the market with increases of 7.70%, 6.90%, and 6.66% respectively. The petroleum and petrochemical, food and beverage, and transportation industries were among the top three decliners, with declines of 2.07%, 0.88%, and 0.24% respectively [19]. 3.2.2. The Convertible Bond Market Rose Significantly, and the Premium Rate of 100 - Yuan Par Value Increased Significantly - This week, the convertible bond market rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.08%, the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 1.94%, and the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 2.30%. The Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 2.57%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Weighted Index rose 2.03%. The average daily trading volume of convertible bonds decreased compared with last week [21]. - At the industry level, 29 convertible bond industries rose, with the communication, national defense and military, and automobile industries leading the gains with increases of 4.59%, 4.22%, and 3.54% respectively. The public utilities, banking, and food and beverage industries had relatively weak increases. Most individual convertible bonds rose. In terms of price, the number of low - priced convertible bonds decreased, and the median price of convertible bonds rose. The weighted conversion value of the whole market increased, and the premium rate decreased [27][33][35]. 3.2.3. High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.2.3.1. Classification Valuation Changes - This week, the valuations of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds increased significantly. Only the valuations of convertible bonds with a par value of 80 - 90 yuan decreased, while the valuations of other par - value convertible bonds increased. The valuations of AAA - rated convertible bonds increased, the conversion premium rates of A - and below - rated convertible bonds decreased significantly, and the valuations of other rated convertible bonds decreased slightly. The valuations of large - cap convertible bonds increased, while the valuations of convertible bonds in other scale brackets decreased [44]. 3.2.3.2. Market Index Performance - This week, convertible bonds of all ratings rose. Since 2023, AAA convertible bonds have recorded a 17.14% return, AA + convertible bonds a 3.39% return, AA convertible bonds a 6.95% return, AA - convertible bonds a 14.45% return, A + convertible bonds a 17.04% return, and A - and below - rated convertible bonds a 22.36% return. Historically, high - rated AAA convertible bonds have shown stable performance, while low - rated convertible bonds have shown weaker downside resistance and greater rebound strength [53]. - This week, convertible bonds of all scales rose. Since 2023, small - cap convertible bonds have recorded a 16.74% return, small - medium - cap convertible bonds a 16.09% return, medium - cap convertible bonds an 11.65% return, and large - cap convertible bonds a 12.43% return [55]. 3.3. Convertible Bond Supply and Terms Tracking 3.3.1. This Week's Primary Plan Issuance - There were no newly listed convertible bonds this week, and the total amount of convertible bonds awaiting listing was 7.154 billion yuan. Among them, the Bo 25 Convertible Bond (with a scale of 2.802 billion yuan) was announced to be issued on July 1st, and there were 6 issued but unlisted convertible bonds. The number of primary approvals this week was 10. Kaizhong Co., Ltd. (308 million yuan) was approved for registration, and 4 convertible bonds were accepted by the exchange [58]. - From the beginning of 2023 to June 27, 2025, the total number of planned convertible bonds was 88, with a total scale of 143.652 billion yuan. Among them, 13 convertible bonds passed the board of directors' proposal with a total scale of 17.632 billion yuan; 42 convertible bonds passed the general meeting of shareholders with a total scale of 67.203 billion yuan; 25 convertible bonds were accepted by the exchange with a total scale of 46.437 billion yuan; 3 convertible bonds passed the review committee with a total scale of 26.20 billion yuan; and 5 convertible bonds were approved for registration by the CSRC with a total scale of 9.76 billion yuan [59]. 3.3.2. Downward Revision and Redemption Clauses - As of June 28, 2025, 14 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revision; 7 convertible bonds announced that they would not be downward - revised, among which Kewotong Convertible Bond, Tianjian Convertible Bond, and Weil Convertible Bond announced that they would not be downward - revised within 6 months; 1 convertible bond (Shanshi Convertible Bond) announced a proposed downward revision; 1 convertible bond (Jiangong Convertible Bond) announced the result of downward revision, with the downward revision reaching the bottom price [64][65]. - Five convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemption; 2 convertible bonds announced that they would not be redeemed; 4 convertible bonds (Huafeng Convertible Bond, Guansheng Convertible Bond, Jinling Convertible Bond, and Chuanheng Convertible Bond) announced early redemption. As of the end of this week, there were 3 convertible bonds still in the put option declaration period and 24 convertible bonds still in the company's capital reduction repayment declaration period [68].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (first rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent capital injection aims to enhance the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratios of major state-owned banks, with expected increases of 0.82, 0.45, 1.43, and 1.25 percentage points for China Bank, Construction Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and Transportation Bank respectively [2][7] - The average core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of the injected banks is projected to exceed the average of U.S. Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) [8][12] - The capital injection is expected to theoretically enable a credit expansion of 4.68 trillion yuan, although actual effects depend on credit supply and demand dynamics [10][11] Summary by Sections Capital Impact - The capital injection is expected to improve the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratios of the banks involved, with the average ratio post-injection estimated at 14.26%, compared to 12.98% for U.S. G-SIBs [2][8] - The capital injection of 520 billion yuan could theoretically support an increase in loans up to 4.68 trillion yuan, but actual outcomes will depend on market conditions [10][11] Operational Impact - The injection is intended to provide additional funding support to mitigate financial risks faced by smaller banks, particularly rural commercial banks, which currently exhibit weaker non-performing loan ratios and provision coverage [3][12] - The liquidity situation is expected to improve following the capital injection, as indicated by recent trends in net financing and issuance of certificates of deposit [15] Investment Recommendations - The report expresses a favorable outlook on China Bank and Postal Savings Bank due to their current stock prices being below their issuance prices, indicating potential for price appreciation [19] - The capital injection is anticipated to positively influence future credit issuance for these banks, with respective increases in capital adequacy ratios of 0.82 and 1.43 percentage points [19]