Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [126]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent easing of trade disputes between the US and China, along with better-than-expected US inflation data, has improved market sentiment and supported oil prices. Brent crude oil prices increased to $65.41 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week rise of $1.50 [15]. - The refining sector has seen a price increase in refined products due to the easing of tariffs and improved demand, particularly in petrochemical products like styrene and MMA, which have experienced significant price increases [51][84]. - The report indicates that the domestic price difference for key refining projects is 2422.43 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 89.11 CNY/ton (3.82%), while the international price difference is 1125.10 CNY/ton, up 63.39 CNY/ton (5.97%) [2]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report notes that the Brent crude oil price averaged $65.36 per barrel, with a week-on-week increase of 6.23%. The EIA reported a decrease in US crude oil inventories, which contributed to the fluctuations in oil prices [15]. - The domestic market for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel has seen average prices of 6852.00 CNY/ton, 7934.80 CNY/ton, and 6005.67 CNY/ton respectively, with varying changes in price differentials against crude oil [15]. Chemical Sector - The report indicates that the prices of petrochemical products have generally risen due to the easing of trade tensions. For instance, the price of pure benzene increased to 5907.14 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 242.86 CNY/ton [51]. - The report also highlights that the price of MMA has increased due to supply reductions from maintenance activities, with the average price reaching 10360.71 CNY/ton [67]. Polyester Sector - The report mentions that the prices of PX, PTA, and MEG have risen significantly due to supply constraints and increased demand from downstream industries. The average price of PX is reported at 6119.88 CNY/ton, up 676.46 CNY/ton [84][88]. - The report notes that the polyester filament market has seen a significant increase in sales volume, driven by improved demand from downstream weaving enterprises [92]. Market Performance of Major Refining Companies - The report tracks the stock performance of six major refining companies, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like Rongsheng Petrochemical (+0.82%) and Hengli Petrochemical (+2.04%) over the past week [113]. - Over the past month, the stock price of Dongfang Shenghong has increased by 15.34%, indicating strong market performance [113].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector assets [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal supply shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term balance in supply and demand but a medium to long-term gap still anticipated [11][12] - The coal price is expected to stabilize and rise, with historical patterns suggesting a potential turning point in consumption by late May as the summer electricity demand season approaches [3][11] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of May 16, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 618 CNY/ton, down 17 CNY/ton week-on-week [29] - The international thermal coal FOB price for Newcastle (NEWC5500) is 69.3 USD/ton, down 0.3 USD/ton week-on-week [29] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1350 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton week-on-week [31] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 96.1%, down 0.3 percentage points week-on-week [3][47] - The daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 1.20 million tons/day (-0.39%), while coastal provinces saw an increase of 7.10 million tons/day (+4.09%) [3][48] - The chemical industry’s coal consumption decreased by 22.31 thousand tons/day (-3.11%) [11] Inventory Situation - As of May 15, coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 337 thousand tons, while coastal provinces saw a decrease of 26 thousand tons [48] - The available days of coal in inland provinces increased by 0.20 days, while it decreased by 0.80 days in coastal provinces [48] Company Performance - The coal sector has shown resilience, with a 1.65% increase in the coal sector index, outperforming the broader market [14] - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others with stable operations and strong performance [12][13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the environmental equipment sector is expected to recover driven by policy support, with specific focus on the integration of sewage treatment plants and networks [4][6] - The report indicates that the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for improved environmental quality and industrial green low-carbon development, which is likely to maintain high prosperity in energy-saving and environmental protection sectors [6][32] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of May 16, the environmental sector remained flat compared to the previous week, underperforming the broader market; the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.76% to 3367.46 [5][8] - The water governance sector increased by 0.23%, while the water service sector decreased by 0.29%; air governance rose by 2.10% [10] Industry Dynamics - On May 15, the Central Committee and the State Council released opinions on promoting urban renewal, emphasizing the acceleration of underground pipeline construction and the establishment of a unified operation and maintenance mechanism for sewage treatment plants [23][25] - The report notes that the national carbon emissions trading market has expanded to include steel, cement, and aluminum industries, which is expected to boost the demand for carbon measurement and online monitoring systems [16][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that water and waste incineration sectors, as operational assets, are expected to see stable profit growth and improved cash flow, benefiting from market reforms in public utilities [6][32] - Key recommendations include companies such as Huanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, with additional attention to Wangneng Environment and Junxin Co. [6][32]

Macro Perspective - Recent US Treasury yields are influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 36.8% probability of a cut in July 2025[3] - Domestic M2 growth in April 2025 was 8.0%, up from 7.0% in the previous month, while the M1-M2 differential decreased to -6.5% from -5.4%[10] Valuation Metrics - The absolute PETTM for the CSI Dividend Index is at the 99.60th percentile over the past three years, indicating a high valuation level[17] - The relative PETTM is at the 77.30th percentile, suggesting a decrease from the previous month's 88.38th percentile[21] Price and Volume Analysis - 64.68% of the CSI Dividend Index component stocks are above the six-month moving average, an increase from 52.14% a month ago, indicating improved price momentum[23] - The absolute trading volume is at the 57.41st percentile over the past three years, down from 72.90% a month ago, suggesting reduced trading activity[30] Fund Flows - The CSI Dividend ETF experienced a net outflow of 28.24 billion yuan this week, with a total net outflow of 53.09 billion yuan over the past month[36] - The exposure of equity mutual funds to dividend strategies has decreased from 0.45 in Q4 2024 to 0.37 in Q1 2025, indicating a reduction in allocation to dividend stocks[36] Summary Insights - The macro model suggests that the dividend style may underperform compared to growth style in the near future due to high valuation levels and reduced trading volume[44] - Long-term outlook remains positive for growth style as liquidity conditions improve with potential monetary and fiscal policy measures[44]

广东 136 号文衔接政策落地，4 月我国进口天然气量同比下降 6.1% 【】【】[Table_Industry] 公用事业—电力天然气周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 17 日 15666646523.tcy ● 本周市场表现：截至5月16日收盘，本周公用事业板块上涨0.1%，表现 劣于大盘。其中，电力板块上涨0.06%，燃气板块上涨0.23%。 ● 电力行业数据跟踪： ➢ 动力煤价格:秦港动力煤价格周环比下跌。截至5月16日，秦皇岛港动 力煤(Q5500)山西产市场价618元/吨，周环比下跌17元/吨。截至5月16 日，广州港印尼煤(Q5500)库提价702.12元/吨，周环比下跌7.23元/吨； 广州港澳洲煤(Q5500)库提价721.93元/吨，周环比下跌11.88元/吨。 ➢ 动力煤库存及电厂日耗：秦港动力煤库存周环比增加，沿海电厂日耗 周环比上升。截至5月16日，秦皇岛港煤炭库存760万吨，周环比增加7 万吨。截至5月15日，内陆17省煤炭库存8080.1万吨，较上周增加33.7 万吨，周环比上升0.42%；内陆17省电厂日耗为310.3万吨，较上周下降 1.2万吨 ...

样本建筑工地资金到位率创近 3 月高位，有望进一步支撑钢材需求 【】【】 钢铁 [Table_Industry] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 17 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [钢铁Table_StockAndRank] 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 高 升 能源、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮 箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 刘 波 能源、钢铁行业研究助理 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [样本建筑工地资金到位率创近 Table_Title] 3 月高位，有望进一步支 撑钢材需求 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 公用事业 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 化工行业： 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 唐婵玉 电力公用研究助理 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 广东 136 号文衔接政策落地，4 月我国进口天然气 量同比下降 6.1% 2025 年 5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Long - term credit bonds adjusted with interest rates, while short - term credit bond spreads significantly compressed. This week, affected by the easing of Sino - US trade tariff policies, market interest rates fluctuated upward. Credit bond trends were differentiated, with long - end yields adjusting with interest rates and medium - short - end yields falling. Credit spreads of various types of credit bonds compressed, with short - term varieties having a larger decline [2][5]. - Urban investment bond spreads declined. Spreads of urban investment bonds generally decreased this week, with different levels of decline for platforms of different external subject ratings and in different regions and administrative levels [2][9]. - Industrial bond spreads generally declined, and the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds significantly compressed. Central and local state - owned real estate bond spreads decreased, mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads dropped significantly, and private real - estate bond spreads slightly increased. Spreads of coal, chemical, and steel bonds also declined [2][19]. - Secondary and perpetual bond spreads were generally stable, and their overall performance was weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds. Most yields of secondary and perpetual bonds followed the interest rate upward, with only some weakly - qualified varieties slightly falling [2][29]. - Industrial perpetual excess spreads were basically flat, and urban investment perpetual excess spreads slightly declined [2][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Long - term credit bonds adjusted with interest rates, short - term credit bond spreads significantly compressed - Market interest rates fluctuated upward. 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y maturity China Development Bank bond yields increased by 3BP, 3BP, 6BP, 6BP, and 5BP respectively [2][5]. - Credit bond trends were differentiated. 1Y maturity credit bond yields of all grades decreased by 3 - 6BP, 3Y maturity yields decreased by 0 - 2BP, 5Y maturity yields increased by 1 - 2BP, and 7Y and 10Y maturity yields increased by 2 - 3BP [2][5]. - Credit spreads compressed. 1Y maturity credit bond spreads of all grades decreased by 6 - 9BP, 3Y, 5Y, and 7Y maturity spreads decreased by 3 - 5BP, and 10Y maturity spreads decreased by 2BP. Rating spreads and term spreads were differentiated [2][5]. 2. Urban investment bond spreads declined - Spreads of different rating platforms declined. AAA - rated platform credit spreads decreased by 7BP, while AA+ and AA - rated platform spreads decreased by 8BP [2][9]. - Regional spreads showed different declines. In different provinces, spreads of AAA - rated platforms mostly decreased by 6 - 8BP, AA+ - rated platforms mostly decreased by 7 - 9BP, and AA - rated platforms mostly decreased by 6 - 8BP. Different regions had different decline amplitudes [9][11][12]. - Spreads of different administrative levels declined. Provincial, municipal, and district - county - level platform credit spreads decreased by 7BP, 7BP, and 8BP respectively [2][15]. 3. Industrial bond spreads generally declined, mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads significantly compressed - Real estate bond spreads varied. Central and local state - owned real estate bond spreads decreased by 6 - 7BP, mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads decreased by 104BP, and private real - estate bond spreads increased by 4BP. Spreads of some real - estate companies like Longfor and Vanke also changed [2][19]. - Spreads of other industrial bonds declined. Spreads of coal, chemical, and steel bonds decreased, with coal and chemical bonds decreasing by 7BP and steel bonds decreasing by 8BP [2][19]. 4. Secondary and perpetual bond spreads were generally stable, overall performance was weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds - Yields and spreads of different terms and grades changed. 1Y maturity secondary capital bonds and AA+ and above perpetual bonds' yields increased by 2 - 3BP, with spreads decreasing by 0 - 1BP; AA - rated perpetual bond yields decreased by 1BP, with spreads decreasing by 4BP. Similar changes occurred in 3Y and 5Y maturity bonds [2][29]. 5. Industrial perpetual excess spreads were basically flat, urban investment perpetual excess spreads slightly declined - Industrial perpetual excess spreads were stable. The AAA3Y excess spread was 11.71BP, at the 20.54% quantile since 2015, and the AAA5Y excess spread was 9.22BP, at the 9.54% quantile [2][32]. - Urban investment perpetual excess spreads declined slightly. The AAA3Y urban investment perpetual bond excess spread decreased by 0.03BP to 7.25BP, at the 3.45% quantile; the AAA5Y excess spread decreased by 0.89BP to 10.56BP, at the 9.68% quantile [2][32]. 6. Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market credit spreads and related excess spreads were calculated based on ChinaBond medium - short - term notes and perpetual bonds data, with historical quantiles starting from the beginning of 2015. Credit spreads of urban investment and industrial bonds were compiled and statistically analyzed by the R & D center of Cinda Securities, also with historical quantiles starting from 2015 [38]. - Calculation methods were provided for industrial and urban investment individual bond credit spreads, bank secondary capital bond/perpetual bond excess spreads, and industrial/urban investment perpetual bond excess spreads [38][39]. - Sample selection criteria were given, including selecting medium - term notes and public corporate bonds, excluding guaranteed and perpetual bonds, and removing bonds with remaining maturities below 0.5 years or above 5 years. Different rating types were used for different bond types [40].

电新周报：Optimus 展示舞蹈动作，机器人再进化 [Table_Industry] 电力设备与新能源 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 17 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [行业周报 Table_ReportType] [Table_Title] Optimus 展示舞蹈动作，机器人再进化 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 17 日 本期核心观点 [Tale_S 行业展望及配置建议： um ➢ 新能源汽车： [Table_StockAndRank] 电力设备与新能源 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 武浩 电新行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520090001 联系电话：010-83326711 邮 箱：wuhao@cindasc.com 孙然 电新行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524080003 联系电话：18721956681 邮 箱：sunran@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 动力电池格局有望优化，板块盈利 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Continuous Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy is based on the convergence of basis in stock index futures and aims to optimize hedging performance by continuously rolling over contracts[47][48] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to May 16, 2025[48] - **Spot Side**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[48] - **Futures Side**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot side and the remaining 30% for shorting futures contracts with the same nominal principal[48] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Continuously hold the current month/quarter contracts until two days before expiration, then roll over to the next contract at the closing price[48] - **Assumptions**: No transaction fees, impact costs, or indivisibility of futures contracts are considered[48] 2. Model Name: Minimum Basis Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy selects futures contracts with the smallest annualized basis discount to optimize hedging performance[49] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to May 16, 2025[49] - **Spot Side**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[49] - **Futures Side**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot side and the remaining 30% for shorting futures contracts with the same nominal principal[49] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Calculate the annualized basis for all tradable futures contracts and select the one with the smallest discount. Contracts are held for at least eight trading days or until two days before expiration[49] - **Assumptions**: No transaction fees, impact costs, or indivisibility of futures contracts are considered[49] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Continuous Hedging Strategy - **IC (CSI 500 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: -2.45% (current month), -1.66% (quarterly), -0.66% (minimum basis)[51] - Volatility: 3.94% (current month), 4.85% (quarterly), 4.76% (minimum basis)[51] - Maximum Drawdown: -7.51% (current month), -8.34% (quarterly), -7.97% (minimum basis)[51] - Net Value: 0.9331 (current month), 0.9543 (quarterly), 0.9818 (minimum basis)[51] - **IF (CSI 300 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: 0.76% (current month), 1.01% (quarterly), 1.59% (minimum basis)[56] - Volatility: 3.08% (current month), 3.42% (quarterly), 3.21% (minimum basis)[56] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.95% (current month), -4.03% (quarterly), -4.06% (minimum basis)[56] - Net Value: 1.0212 (current month), 1.0286 (quarterly), 1.0450 (minimum basis)[56] - **IH (SSE 50 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: 1.20% (current month), 2.13% (quarterly), 1.84% (minimum basis)[60] - Volatility: 3.19% (current month), 3.62% (quarterly), 3.21% (minimum basis)[60] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.22% (current month), -3.75% (quarterly), -3.91% (minimum basis)[60] - Net Value: 1.0339 (current month), 1.0605 (quarterly), 1.0521 (minimum basis)[60] - **IM (CSI 1000 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: -5.28% (current month), -3.88% (quarterly), -3.23% (minimum basis)[62] - Volatility: 4.35% (current month), 5.45% (quarterly), 5.31% (minimum basis)[62] - Maximum Drawdown: -14.36% (current month), -12.63% (quarterly), -11.11% (minimum basis)[62] - Net Value: 0.8595 (current month), 0.8953 (quarterly), 0.9124 (minimum basis)[62] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Cinda-VIX - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects investors' expectations of future volatility in the options market, with a term structure to capture different time horizons[65] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Based on methodologies from international markets, adjusted for China's on-exchange options market[65] - Calculated using implied volatilities from options with different maturities[65] - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides insights into market sentiment and volatility expectations[65] 2. Factor Name: Cinda-SKEW - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the skewness in implied volatility across different strike prices, capturing market expectations of extreme tail risks[74] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Analyzes the slope of implied volatility curves for options with varying strike prices[74] - Higher SKEW values indicate increased demand for out-of-the-money options, reflecting heightened tail risk concerns[75] - **Factor Evaluation**: Useful for assessing market sentiment and potential "black swan" events[75] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Cinda-VIX - **30-Day VIX Values**: - SSE 50: 19.24[65] - CSI 300: 19.19[65] - CSI 500: 22.56[65] - CSI 1000: 26.89[65] 2. Cinda-SKEW - **SKEW Values**: - SSE 50: 100.71[75] - CSI 300: 103.73[75] - CSI 500: 98.73[75] - CSI 1000: 107.96[75]