[Table_Title] 反内卷政策或带来双重拐点 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 9 月 26 日 证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 [Table_A 解运亮 uthor 宏观首席 ] 分析师 执业编号：S1500521040002 联系电话：010-83326858 邮 箱：xieyunliang@cindasc.com 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱：mailinyue@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 [➢Table_Summary] 反内卷从政策定调到逐步落地。本轮"反内卷"政策的起点可追溯至 2024 年 7 月中共中央政治局会议，该会议首次明确提出防止"内卷式" 恶性竞争；至 2024 年 12 月，政策重心从初期的风险预警逐步转向具体 整治行动。进入今年以来，"反内卷"不仅成为多场高层会议 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [2] Core Insights - The CXO industry is experiencing a recovery in market conditions, driven by improvements in supply-demand dynamics and a rebound in financing activities for innovative drugs [3][4] - The CDMO sector continues to show high growth potential, with leading companies improving their performance and expanding into emerging markets [5][6] - The CRO sector is approaching a turning point, with signs of demand recovery and improved order conditions [6][7] Summary by Sections CXO Industry Overview - The CXO industry operates on a "water seller" business model, closely tied to the financing of the biopharmaceutical sector. In the first eight months of 2025, overseas innovative drug financing reached $22.6 billion, a year-on-year decline of approximately 36%, while domestic innovative drug financing amounted to $7.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 89% [3][31] - The leading companies in the CXO sector are expected to enter an expansion phase as demand recovers, while smaller companies may face increased competition and exit the market [4][44] CDMO Sector - CDMO leading companies have begun to see marginal improvements in performance since Q4 2024, attributed to high overseas revenue and a unique business model that supports project pipeline growth [5][46] - The order situation for CDMO companies has improved significantly, with notable increases in backlogged orders for major players like WuXi AppTec and WuXi Biologics [49][50] - The CDMO business model is characterized by strong customer retention and project scalability, allowing for sustained growth despite challenges in new project signings [52] CRO Sector - The CRO sector is witnessing a divergence in performance among leading companies, with some starting to recover. The overall order situation has shown improvement, indicating a potential demand revival [6][22] - The price increase of experimental monkeys suggests a forthcoming recovery in preclinical CRO demand, highlighting the importance of resource availability for leading CRO companies [6][24] - The integration of AI in drug development processes is expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, with many domestic CRO leaders already adopting AI technologies [7][18] Recommended Companies - The report suggests focusing on key players in the CXO sector, including WuXi AppTec, WuXi Biologics, WuXi AppTec, and others, which are positioned well for growth based on their business characteristics and market trends [8][10]

Overview - As of September 23, 2025, A-share funds maintained a net inflow, with an annual net inflow accounting for 3.2% of the free float market value. When considering that dividends are not fully reinvested, the annual net inflow (dividends * 1/2) accounts for 1.4% of the free float market value, indicating a slight net inflow. After excluding potential double counting from private equity funds and insurance, the net inflow ratio is approximately 1.4%, suggesting a slight net inflow status [3][9][21]. Monthly Trends - In August 2025, the A-share monthly net inflow was 444.9 billion yuan, representing 0.93% of the circulating market value. Key changes included a continued recovery in financing balances, positive inflow in public fund shares, and a narrowing outflow from ETF funds. Outflows decreased compared to July, with IPOs, additional issuances, convertible bonds, and industrial capital net reductions all showing a decline [3][17][19]. - By September 23, 2025, the net inflow for September reached 358.8 billion yuan, with a monthly net inflow ratio of 0.73% of the circulating market value. It is anticipated that public fund shares will increase, and outflows may continue to grow month-on-month [3][17][19]. Financing Balances - Financing balances increased by 274.4 billion yuan in August 2025, following a previous increase of 132.9 billion yuan. From the beginning of the year to September 23, 2025, financing balances rose by 545.9 billion yuan, indicating a net inflow status [3][29][32]. - As of September 23, 2025, the financing balance accounted for 2.80% of the circulating market value, which is considered a moderately high level since 2016. This ratio had previously peaked at 2.74% in early April 2025 before experiencing slight fluctuations [3][32][36]. Public Fund and ETF Trends - In August 2025, the shares of equity public funds increased by 118.6 billion shares, while considering ETF share changes, the total increase was 12.3 billion shares. However, stock-type ETF funds experienced a net outflow of 29.9 billion yuan [3][21][29]. - From January 1 to September 23, 2025, stock-type ETF fund shares saw a net outflow of 33.7 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024 [3][21][29]. Company Buybacks and Dividends - In August 2025, the announced buyback amount by listed companies was 108.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.9 billion yuan from the previous month. The actual buyback amount was 53.7 billion yuan, also down by 1.4 billion yuan month-on-month. Cumulatively, from January 1 to September 23, 2025, the announced buyback amount reached 898.6 billion yuan, an increase of 577.4 billion yuan from the end of 2024 [3][21][29]. - The total dividend amount for listed companies in August 2025 was 121.1 billion yuan, and from January 1 to September 23, 2025, the cumulative dividend amount reached 1,751.5 billion yuan, indicating strong performance [3][21][29].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company has over 20 years of experience in the biological laboratory consumables sector, focusing on biological culture and liquid handling, with leading technical strength and a comprehensive product matrix. The company is expected to maintain rapid growth as its influence in overseas markets increases and both domestic industrial and research markets expand [3][4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Market - The company has entered the global biological laboratory consumables supply chain through an ODM model, establishing stable partnerships with international leaders like VWR and Thermo Fisher. The company has built a reputation for "reliable quality" and "outstanding cost performance," with overseas self-brand revenue increasing by 46.07% year-on-year in 2024, accounting for 18.89% of total revenue [4][14] 2. Domestic Market - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the opportunity for import substitution in the current international trade climate. As one of the earliest producers of disposable plastic consumables in China, the company is expanding its sales network and has established 12 offices domestically in 2024. The sales of its cell factory products are expected to grow by approximately 28.55% year-on-year [5][49][53] 3. Product High-Endization and Smart Manufacturing - The company is focused on developing high-end products such as liquid culture media and cell culture bags while optimizing production processes to reduce manufacturing costs. The establishment of an intelligent manufacturing base is expected to enhance order delivery efficiency and support global business needs [6][15] 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 652 million yuan, 772 million yuan, and 919 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.7%, 18.3%, and 19.1% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 98 million yuan, 118 million yuan, and 145 million yuan during the same period, with corresponding growth rates of 35.3%, 20.6%, and 23.2% [6][8][20]

Group 1: Report Summary - The total bond custody scale in August increased by 150.6 billion yuan month-on-month, with a slower growth compared to July. The custody increments of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds rose, while the net financing scale of local bonds and credit bonds declined, and commercial bank bonds turned into net repayment. The custody scale of interbank certificates of deposit continued to decline significantly [4][7]. - In early August, the bond market oscillated and recovered, but after mid - August, sentiment weakened due to the continuous new highs of A - shares. Long - term interest rates were under pressure, while short - term rates were relatively resilient. From the perspective of institutional behavior, broad - based funds may have been affected by liability - side disturbances and reduced their bond holdings for the first time since February. Dealers also increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds. However, the承接 power of allocation - oriented investors was insufficient, which might have prevented interest rates from stabilizing in August. Notably, foreign institutions significantly narrowed their reduction of domestic bond holdings, possibly indicating an increase in their overall allocation of Chinese assets [4][9]. - Affected by the decline in the balance of repurchase agreements, the bond market leverage ratio slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 107.5% in August, remaining at a relatively low level in recent years. Among different institutions, commercial banks' leverage ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 103.8%, while non - bank institutions' leverage ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 116.9% [4][39]. Group 2: August Bond Custody Increment Analysis - Interest - rate bonds: The issuance scale of treasury bonds increased while the maturity scale decreased in August, with the custody increment rising by 38.42 billion yuan to 82.61 billion yuan. For policy financial bonds, the decline in the issuance scale was smaller than that in the maturity scale, and the custody increment increased by 22.23 billion yuan to 46.16 billion yuan. The issuance scale of local bonds decreased significantly while the maturity scale increased, and the custody increment decreased by 31.51 billion yuan to 51.72 billion yuan [7]. - Credit bonds: The issuance scale of medium - term notes and enterprise bonds decreased while the maturity scale increased. The custody increment of medium - term notes decreased by 11.05 billion yuan to 10.44 billion yuan, and the custody scale of enterprise bonds decreased by 3.53 billion yuan. The issuance scale of short - term commercial paper decreased, and the custody volume changed from an increase of 1.06 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 4.61 billion yuan. The custody scale of PPN continued to decline by 1.53 billion yuan, with a narrower decline compared to the previous month [7]. - Other bonds: The issuance and maturity scales of interbank certificates of deposit both increased slightly, and the custody scale continued to decline by 35.56 billion yuan, with a narrower decline compared to the previous month. Commercial bank bonds turned into net repayment, with the custody volume changing from an increase of 36.9 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 1.64 billion yuan. The custody increment of non - bank bonds increased by 2.04 billion yuan to 5.12 billion yuan, and the decline in the custody scale of credit - asset - backed securities narrowed by 0.58 billion yuan to 0.54 billion yuan [7]. Group 3: Institutional Behavior Analysis 3.1 Broad - based Funds - The bond custody scale of broad - based funds decreased by 19.17 billion yuan in August, mainly due to significant reductions in credit bonds and certificates of deposit, while slightly increasing holdings of interest - rate bonds. The reduction in holdings of interbank certificates of deposit, commercial bank bonds, and enterprise bonds increased, while the increase in holdings of medium - term notes and financial bonds on the Clearstream decreased. They turned to reduce holdings of short - term commercial paper and increase holdings of policy financial bonds [12]. 3.2 Securities Companies - The bond custody volume of securities companies increased by 190 million yuan in August, mainly due to a significant decrease in the reduction of treasury bonds, a slight decrease in the reduction of medium - term notes, an increase in the increase of policy financial bonds, and a turn to slightly increase holdings of financial bonds on the Clearstream. The reduction of bond holdings weakened significantly [18]. 3.3 Insurance Companies - The bond custody increment of insurance companies decreased by 5.76 billion yuan to 3.96 billion yuan in August, mainly due to a decrease in the increase of local bonds and treasury bonds, a turn to reduce holdings of policy financial bonds and medium - term notes, and an increase in the reduction of commercial bank bonds. They turned to reduce bond holdings [20]. 3.4 Foreign Institutions - The decline in the bond custody volume of foreign institutions significantly narrowed by 20.41 billion yuan to 9.97 billion yuan in August, with a significant decrease in the reduction of interbank certificates of deposit, treasury bonds, and policy financial bonds. They generally continued to reduce bond holdings, but the reduction intensity weakened [25]. 3.5 Other Institutions - The bond custody increment of other institutions, including the central bank, increased by 9.58 billion yuan to 33.52 billion yuan in August, mainly due to the increase in the net investment of outright reverse repurchase. They significantly increased holdings of local bonds, turned to reduce holdings of policy financial bonds, and slightly increased the reduction of treasury bonds. The increase in holdings of interbank certificates of deposit reached a new high since December 2022, while the increase in holdings of medium - term notes declined from a historical high [28]. 3.6 Commercial Banks - The bond custody increment of commercial banks decreased by 52.2 billion yuan to 120.01 billion yuan in August. They turned to reduce holdings of local bonds, possibly affected by the increase in the net investment of outright reverse repurchase and the concentration on local bonds. The increase in holdings of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds increased significantly, while the increase in holdings of financial bonds on the Clearstream decreased significantly [31]. 3.7 Credit Unions - The bond custody increment of credit unions decreased by 5.92 billion yuan to 1.04 billion yuan in August, mainly due to a decrease in the increase of policy financial bonds and treasury bonds and a turn to reduce holdings of interbank certificates of deposit. They turned to reduce bond holdings [37]. Group 4: Bond Market Leverage Ratio Analysis - The bond market leverage ratio decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 107.5% in August, remaining at a relatively low level in recent years. Commercial banks' leverage ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 103.8%, still significantly lower than the level before April 2024. Non - bank institutions' leverage ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 116.9%, remaining at a relatively low level since 2022. Among non - bank institutions, securities companies' leverage ratio decreased by 12.8 percentage points to 215.1%, still at a relatively high level in the past three years. The leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal person products decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 113.8%, remaining at a relatively low level since 2022 [39].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Gansu Energy is "Buy" [2]. Core Viewpoints - Gansu Energy is a leading provincial power platform under Gansu State-owned Assets, with diversified development in thermal, hydro, wind, and solar power [5][14]. - The company has a total installed capacity of 7,539.7 MW, with thermal power accounting for 4,000 MW, hydro power 1,700.2 MW, wind power 1,103.5 MW, and solar power 736 MW as of the first half of 2025 [5][14]. - The acquisition of a 66% stake in the Changle Power Plant significantly boosts revenue and profit, with projected revenues increasing to CNY 8.695 billion in 2024 and net profit to CNY 1.644 billion [5][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Gansu Energy as a Core Power Platform - Gansu Energy has transformed into a clean energy operator with a focus on thermal, hydro, wind, and solar power projects, supported by its major shareholder, Gansu Electric Power Investment Group [14]. - The company has seen steady growth in its clean energy segment, with revenues increasing from CNY 2.268 billion in 2019 to CNY 2.641 billion in 2023, representing a CAGR of 3.88% [20]. 2. Thermal Power - The Changle Power Plant is a key asset, with its first phase being the only supporting thermal power project for the "Long Electric into Hunan" initiative [31]. - The plant benefits from low fuel costs due to its proximity to Xinjiang coal sources, which are more stable and cheaper compared to other regions [31][39]. 3. Hydro Power - Gansu Energy's hydro power segment consists of small hydro plants, contributing to stable revenue and profit, with a total installed capacity of 1,700.2 MW [6][20]. - The company also holds a significant stake in Guotou Xiaoshanxia, which contributes approximately CNY 100 million annually to its investment income [6]. 4. New Energy - The company has a total of 1,103.5 MW of wind power and 736 MW of solar power installed, with significant growth potential in the future [8]. - Gansu Energy has secured approval for new energy projects totaling 6,100 MW, indicating strong future growth prospects [8]. 5. Potential Asset Injection - The parent company has additional thermal power assets totaling 4.67 GW, which could be injected into Gansu Energy, enhancing its capacity and profitability [8][9]. 6. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The forecasted net profits for Gansu Energy are CNY 1.971 billion, CNY 2.272 billion, and CNY 2.374 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.68, 9.27, and 8.87 [8][9].

Group 1 - The report highlights that from late June to August, while major indices accelerated upward, the banking sector experienced a decline, with an absolute return decrease of 0.39%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by approximately 16 percentage points, ranking last among all primary industries [2][8][10] - Historical cases, such as the electronics industry in Q4 2014, show that sectors can underperform during bull market acceleration phases due to style shifts, yet still strengthen in the later stages of the bull market [2][13][15] - The report identifies that if a leading sector in a bull market becomes the weakest performer during an acceleration phase, it is often due to changes in market style rather than weak earnings, suggesting potential for recovery in the later stages of the bull market [2][27][28] Group 2 - The banking sector from March to May 2007 was noted as one of the weakest performers during the latter half of the bull market's main upward wave, despite strong overall performance in the financial cycle bull market from 2005 to 2007 [28][34][41] - The communication sector also underperformed during the same period, with a 28% increase compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 53% rise, indicating a mismatch with market style and weak earnings expectations [43][44][48] - The banking sector from May to July 2020 showed weak performance during a bull market, with a 7.8% increase while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 21.4%, attributed to a shift towards small-cap growth stocks [50][55][61]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the innovation-driven market trend in China is still ongoing, with a focus on innovative drugs, medical devices, and AI healthcare as key areas for medium to long-term investment. Short-term strategies may favor stable and undervalued stocks due to cautious capital allocation ahead of the holiday [3][12] - The report suggests a focus on undervalued stocks for pre-holiday allocation, recommending companies such as Xinhua Medical (2025 expected PE of approximately 13 times), Liuyuan Group (2025 expected PE of approximately 9 times), and Baiyunshan (2025 expected PE of approximately 13 times) [3][12] - The report highlights various sectors within the industry, including high-end medical devices, AI healthcare, CXO, and life sciences, suggesting specific companies to watch in each category [13][14][12] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experienced a weekly return of -2.07%, ranking 23rd among 31 first-level sub-indices. The medical services sub-sector had the best performance with a weekly return of -0.47% [10][27] - Over the past month, the sector's return was -1.19%, ranking 26th among first-level sub-indices, with medical services again leading with a return of 6.43% [10][25] 2. Market Performance and Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is 31.19 times, slightly above the 5-year average of 29.46 times. The industry is trading at a premium of 137% compared to the CSI 300 index [20][22][24] - The report notes that the medical services sub-sector has shown the highest growth over the past year, with a return of 87.05% [29] 3. Sector Dynamics - High-end medical devices are expected to see growth driven by hospital procurement recovery, with companies like KAILI Medical and Mindray Medical recommended for attention [13] - In AI healthcare, companies such as JD Health and Alibaba Health are highlighted for their performance in AI-driven e-commerce and marketing [13] - The CXO and life sciences sectors are also emphasized, with leading companies like WuXi AppTec and Tigermed suggested for investment [14] 4. Recent Industry Developments - The report outlines recent policy changes, including the launch of the 11th batch of national drug centralized procurement, which aims to balance clinical needs and rational competition among enterprises [11][44] - Key announcements from companies in the sector include new drug registrations and clinical trial approvals, indicating ongoing innovation and regulatory progress [45]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Fengmao Co., Ltd. (301459) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the analysis suggests a positive outlook based on strategic partnerships and growth projections [1]. Core Insights - The strategic partnership with Jianghuai Automobile aims to enhance product offerings in fluid pipeline solutions, leveraging Fengmao's R&D capabilities and Jianghuai's expertise in metal processing and lightweight materials [2]. - The collaboration is expected to establish a robust supply chain for high-end passenger vehicles, enhancing market penetration and customer resource access [2]. - The dual focus on automotive and data center liquid cooling markets is anticipated to drive growth, with significant opportunities arising from applying proven technologies in new sectors [2]. - Revenue projections for Fengmao Co., Ltd. are estimated at 1.09 billion, 1.47 billion, and 1.79 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to reach 186 million, 260 million, and 317 million yuan in the same years [3]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 802 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31.8%. Projections indicate continued growth with 949 million yuan in 2024 and 1.09 billion yuan in 2025 [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is 138 million yuan, with a growth rate of 35.1%, and is expected to grow to 186 million yuan in 2025 [3]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 30% over the forecast period, indicating consistent profitability [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 1.33 yuan in 2023 to 3.05 yuan by 2027, reflecting strong earnings growth [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the stock of Tian Shili (600535) based on its potential growth from the newly approved indication for its drug, Pu You Ke [1]. Core Viewpoints - The approval of Pu You Ke for the treatment of acute ischemic stroke is expected to create a second growth curve for the company, leveraging its established commercial framework and clinical evidence [2][3]. - Acute ischemic stroke has a high incidence rate, and Pu You Ke is positioned to meet unmet clinical needs, offering a safer alternative to existing treatments like alteplase [4][5][6]. - The company is committed to innovation, with a robust pipeline of 83 projects, including several promising drugs that could enhance its market position [7][8]. Financial Summary - The projected revenue for the company from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be 86.60 billion, 93.24 billion, and 100.81 billion respectively, with net profits of 11.96 billion, 13.31 billion, and 14.84 billion [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.80 yuan, 0.89 yuan, and 0.99 yuan for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 19.62, 17.63, and 15.82 [10].