Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the context suggests a positive outlook based on recent developments in the smart driving camera system sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The company, Haoen Qidian, has received product designation letters for its smart driving camera systems from strategic partners, indicating strong recognition of its R&D, manufacturing, and quality management capabilities [2][3]. - The projected total revenue from the designated projects is approximately 430 million yuan over their respective lifecycles of 3 and 6 years, with production expected to start in October 2025 and June 2027 [2]. - This marks the second product designation announcement in 2025, with a combined value of approximately 838 million yuan, reflecting the company's competitive edge in the ADAS camera sector [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Haoen Qidian has been deeply involved in the automotive intelligent driving perception system field for many years, showcasing its comprehensive strength through recent product designations [3]. Recent Developments - The company has received product designation letters from both a joint venture automotive brand and an overseas automotive brand, which are significant strategic partners [2]. - The recognition from these partners is expected to enhance the company's market share and brand awareness in the automotive intelligent driving market [3]. Financial Projections - The total estimated revenue from the designated projects is around 430 million yuan, with production timelines set for 2025 and 2027 [2]. - The cumulative value of the two product designations in 2025 is approximately 838 million yuan, indicating potential for revenue growth in the future [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for King Long Automobile (600686) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a focus on the company's performance and market position [2]. Core Viewpoints - In April 2025, King Long Automobile sold a total of 3,611 buses, representing a year-on-year decrease of 3.91%. However, the sales of light buses increased significantly by 24.76%, with 1,592 units sold [2]. - King Long and its subsidiary Jinlv are leading in bus export sales this year. In April 2025, China's total bus exports reached 5,736 units, a 26.71% increase from 4,527 units in April 2024. King Long's exports were 917 units, up 38.73%, while Jinlv's exports surged by 122.78% to 753 units [2]. - The demand for buses in major export markets, particularly in certain Asian and African countries, has increased significantly since 2025, driven by the Belt and Road Initiative [2]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In April 2025, King Long's sales included 1,592 light buses (up 24.76%), 598 medium buses (down 17.17%), and 1,421 large buses (down 19.26%) [2]. Export Performance - King Long's cumulative exports from January to April 2025 reached 3,573 units, marking a 76.79% increase year-on-year, securing the second position in the market with a 16.66% share [2]. - Jinlv's cumulative exports during the same period were 3,887 units, leading the market with a 127.04% increase and an 18.12% market share [2]. Market Trends - The report highlights a growing demand for buses in specific regions, particularly in Asia and Africa, as a result of the Belt and Road Initiative, which has positively impacted export figures [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The attitude towards the bond market remains relatively positive. It is recommended to maintain a medium - to - high duration in the portfolio, appropriately increase leverage to boost short - bond holdings, and seize buying opportunities for long - end bonds during adjustments [3][49]. - Although short - term interest rates are currently weak, as technical factors wane and with the potential for deposit rate cuts and a stable monetary policy, short - and medium - term interest rates are expected to decline, which will support long - term bonds [2][3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Constraints on Short - Term Interest Rates from Some Technical Factors May Weaken in the Future - The weak performance of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS) has restricted short - term interest rates. After the basis repair, the IRR of the CTD bond of the TS2506 contract has dropped, reducing the suppression on futures prices and potentially boosting confidence in short - term bonds [7][12]. - The decline in the central bank's claims on the government in the balance sheet may be due to the maturity of short - term bonds previously purchased or the closing of the previous short - selling long - buying operation. Currently, the impact of this factor is gradually weakening, and large banks have resumed net buying of 1 - 3 - year Treasury bonds [12][15][16]. 3.2 In the Short Term, the Probability of the Funding Rate Remaining Loose but Lower than the Policy Rate is Low, but the Decline in Deposit Rates is Still Expected to Benefit the Short - End - After the RRR cut, the tightening of the funding market was a temporary shock. The average - method assessment of the RRR and the large - scale net payment of government bonds and net withdrawal of reverse repurchase and MLF were the main reasons [17][18][19]. - Although the excess reserve ratio in April was at a low level, the central bank may tolerate a decline in banks' net lending, indicating that it hopes to maintain a loose environment but may not want the funding rate to fall significantly below the policy rate. The decline in deposit rates is conducive to compressing short - and medium - term spreads [25][30]. 3.3 The Weakening of Economic Data in April Indicates Insufficient Demand, and the Fundamental Environment is Still Favorable for the Bond Market - In April, new credit and social financing were both lower than expected. New credit mainly came from government bond issuance, and the decline in new credit may be due to the lack of bank reserve projects after the early - year impulse [34][35][39]. - Despite the slowdown in credit growth, the M2 growth rate increased due to the rise in banks' net lending and bond investment. However, the M1 growth rate declined, indicating limited currency activation [39][42]. - In April, domestic demand declined. Retail sales, investment, and production all showed signs of weakness, indicating that the fundamental environment is favorable for the bond market [44][45][47]. 3.4 The Bond Market is Expected to Continue a Relatively Strong and Volatile Trend - Although the recent Sino - US negotiation has made progress, the impact of short - term export rush is short - term. External demand still faces uncertainties, and domestic demand is insufficient. - The monetary policy is expected to remain in a loose range. If the funding expectation stabilizes, short - and medium - term interest rates are expected to decline, which will support long - term bonds [49].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the airline transportation industry is "Positive" [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in ticket prices, with expectations for continued recovery in ticket prices during the peak travel season due to strong demand [3][5]. - The report suggests focusing on key airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines as potential investment opportunities [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report indicates that the passenger load factor remains high, with strong travel demand during the May Day holiday, leading to a noticeable reduction in the year-on-year decline in ticket prices [3][4]. 2. Industry Ticket Price Trends - The year-on-year decline in industry ticket prices has significantly narrowed, with ticket prices in May showing a decline of only 3.0% compared to the previous year [5][27]. - The average domestic ticket price from the beginning of 2025 until May 18 is 847 yuan, reflecting a 10.0% year-on-year decrease [5][27]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is affected by fleet issues, with potential delays in aircraft introductions due to supply chain problems and limited short-term improvements in utilization rates due to engine maintenance [3][4]. - The demand side shows sustained growth in travel demand during peak seasons, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics and a potential rise in ticket prices [3][4]. 4. Operational Performance of Airlines - In April 2025, domestic airlines experienced a year-on-year increase in capacity and turnover, with passenger load factors exceeding levels from 2019 [47][49]. - The report notes that China Southern Airlines had the highest net increase in aircraft in April, adding five aircraft to its fleet [47][48]. 5. Fuel Price Trends - The average price of aviation fuel has shown a continuous year-on-year decline, with May's average price at 5,385 yuan per ton, down 19.0% from the previous year [41][41]. - Brent crude oil prices have also decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 23.6% as of May 16, 2025 [41][41]. 6. Exchange Rate Stability - The exchange rate has remained stable, with the USD to RMB exchange rate at 7.1916 as of May 19, 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.04% from the end of 2024 [41][41].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the airline transportation industry is "Positive" [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in ticket prices, with expectations for continued recovery in ticket prices during the peak travel season [3][5]. - The demand for travel is expected to remain strong during the peak season, supported by high passenger load factors and a resurgence in travel demand during holidays [3][14]. - Key airlines to focus on include Air China, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines [2][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the airline industry, driven by sustained high passenger load factors and strong travel demand during the May Day holiday [14]. - It emphasizes the potential for ticket prices to recover as supply and demand dynamics improve [14]. 2. Industry Ticket Price Trends - The year-on-year decline in ticket prices has significantly narrowed, with an average domestic ticket price of 847 RMB, down 10.0% year-on-year as of May 18, 2025 [5][27]. - The average ticket price has shown a trend of narrowing declines in recent weeks, with a year-on-year decline of only 3.0% in May [5][27]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is constrained by issues such as supply chain delays affecting aircraft deliveries and limited short-term increases in utilization rates due to engine maintenance [3][14]. - The demand side is bolstered by strong travel during the Spring Festival, Qingming Festival, and May Day holiday, indicating a continuous growth in demand [3][14]. 4. Operational Performance of Airlines - In April 2025, domestic airlines saw a year-on-year increase in capacity and turnover, with passenger load factors exceeding levels from 2019 [47]. - The report notes that China Southern Airlines had the highest net increase in aircraft, adding 5 aircraft in April [48]. 5. Fuel Price Trends - The average price of aviation fuel has decreased significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 19.0% in May [41]. - Brent crude oil prices have also shown a downward trend, with a year-on-year decrease of 23.6% as of May 16, 2025 [41].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the stock of Andeli (605198) based on its strong performance and growth potential [8] Core Views - Andeli Juice has achieved significant revenue growth, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 430 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.0%, driven by strong performance in juice and flavor products [2] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity and diversifying its product offerings, with plans to establish new production lines and acquire assets to enhance its market share [2] - The company has established a stable customer base, primarily consisting of leading global enterprises, which mitigates the impact of trade tensions and ensures steady demand [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Andeli's gross margin decreased by 3.23 percentage points to 22.25%, while net profit margin remained stable at 20.02%, reflecting a 61.31% increase in net profit to 86.07 million yuan [2] - The company expects total revenue to grow from 876 million yuan in 2023 to 2.43 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.6% from 2024 to 2025 [3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.05 yuan, 1.27 yuan, and 1.43 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 56, 46, and 41 [2][3] Market Position and Strategy - The concentrated juice industry is experiencing a competitive shift, with some competitors facing operational difficulties, allowing Andeli to capture a larger market share [2] - The company is expanding its production footprint across seven provinces and ten factories, enhancing its capacity to meet growing demand [2] - Andeli is diversifying its product line to include various types of juices, such as decolorized and deacidified concentrated juice, and plans to invest in new production projects [2] Customer Base and Demand Stability - The global apple juice market is primarily concentrated in developed countries, providing stable demand for Andeli's products [2] - The company is expanding its market reach into non-U.S. markets, leveraging its facilities to tap into emerging markets along the Belt and Road Initiative [2]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards the chemical industry, particularly focusing on the impacts of tariff changes on the olefin supply chain [5]. Core Insights - The imposition of reciprocal tariffs by China on U.S. imports has led to increased costs for imported goods, particularly affecting the ethane and propane markets [12][15]. - The chemical industry in China shows a manageable overall import dependency, but certain raw materials exhibit high reliance on U.S. imports, notably ethane and propane [3][19]. - The report highlights the potential shift in trade flows for propane imports from the U.S. to countries like Qatar and the UAE due to rising costs from tariffs [4][13]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The U.S. has implemented a series of tariff adjustments, with China responding by increasing tariffs on U.S. goods to 125% [15][16]. - The recent negotiations have led to a temporary suspension of some tariffs, but a 10% tariff remains in place, which could still affect import costs [18][28]. Import Dependency - In 2024, China imported $11.1 billion worth of liquefied propane, with 59.2% sourced from the U.S., while ethane imports were almost entirely from the U.S. with a dependency rate of 98.7% [3][26]. - The overall import dependency of the chemical industry is around 11%, with specific categories like chemical products showing higher reliance on U.S. imports [25][19]. Production and Cost Structure - The report indicates that the production of polyethylene and polypropylene in China has significantly increased, with capacities reaching 58.19 million tons and 72.11 million tons respectively by April 2025 [29][30]. - The cost structure of different production routes shows that coal-based and gas-based methods are becoming more prominent, reducing the correlation of olefin prices with crude oil prices [39][47]. Future Considerations - The report advises monitoring the ongoing changes in tariff policies and their implications for the cost structure of the olefin industry, particularly for propane dehydrogenation (PDH) processes [5][28]. - The potential for alternative sourcing of propane and the feasibility of toll processing for ethane are highlighted as strategies to mitigate tariff impacts [4][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the automotive industry, including the modification and suspension of tariffs between the US and China, which is expected to enhance trade relations and market dynamics [3][8] - Huawei has signed a comprehensive cooperation agreement with UBTECH in the field of embodied intelligence and humanoid robots, indicating a trend towards innovation in automotive technology [3][8] - The report notes that major automotive companies are accelerating their electric and intelligent transformation, supported by favorable policies, which is likely to sustain steady growth in industry sales [5] Industry News - The US will suspend 24% of tariffs on Chinese goods for the first 90 days, while retaining 10% of the tariffs, and China will adjust its tariffs on US goods accordingly [3][8] - Enjoy Travel and Momenta have signed a strategic cooperation agreement to create the world's first mass-produced Robotaxi fleet, set to launch operations in Shanghai [3][8] - Avita has achieved an 8.25% market share in the UAE luxury new energy vehicle segment, with over 100 units delivered since its launch [3][8] - Xpeng has teased a new sporty coupe model, E29, which is expected to set new standards in automotive aesthetics [3][8] - Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory exported nearly 30,000 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in April, marking a record high for monthly exports [3][8] - Leap Motor announced the launch of its 2026 C10 model, with pre-sale prices starting at 129,800 yuan [3][8] - The first model from Leida, L60, has surpassed 40,000 sales since its delivery began [3][8] - Geely has announced its 2025 product plan, including new models set to launch in the coming quarters [3][8] - Top Group has completed the acquisition of Wuhu Changpeng, enhancing its competitiveness in automotive soft interiors and NVH [3][8] Market Performance - The automotive sector in A-shares outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 2.71%, leading among all sectors [5][10] - The passenger vehicle sector saw a PE valuation increase, while the commercial vehicle sector experienced a decline [20] - Key stocks such as Leap Motor and Ideal Auto led the gains in the passenger vehicle sector [5][15]

中美谈判利好落地，公募新规或催化配置逻辑重塑 —— 量化市场追踪周报（2025W20） 2025 年 5 月 18 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 金工研究 金工定期报告 于明明 金融工程与金融产品 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 吴彦锦 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523090002 联系电话：+86 18616819227 邮 箱：wuyanjin@cindasc.com 周君睿 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523110005 联系电话：+86 19821223545 邮 箱：zhoujunrui@cindasc.com 量化市场追踪周报(2025W20)：中美谈判利好落 地，公募新规或催化配置逻辑重塑 2025 年 5 月 18 日 主动权益基金仓位下行：截至 2025/5/16，主动权益型基金的平均仓位约 为 86.50%。其中，普通股票型基金的平均仓位约为 89.44%（较上周 ...

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report suggests that recent changes in public fund regulations have increased investor attention on banks and non-bank financial institutions, drawing parallels to the significant market rally in the second half of 2014, which was driven by low allocations and regulatory changes [2][10] - Similarities between the current situation and 2014 include significant underweighting of public funds in financial sectors due to previous bear markets and GDP declines, as well as new regulatory changes, with the 2014 launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and the 2025 public fund regulations [10][11] - The report indicates that the banking sector was more undervalued in 2014, with substantial inflows of retail funds expected in the latter half of the year, which is a critical factor for a potential market rally [10][11] Group 2 - The report identifies three main reasons for the financial sector's rally in Q4 2014: (1) public funds were significantly underweight in financials, (2) the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and interest rate cuts by the central bank, and (3) valuation recovery potential based on PB-ROE metrics [3][12][17] - The analysis of PB-ROE metrics shows that in 2014, banks' PB declined faster than ROE due to investor concerns about profitability, leading to a significant valuation recovery in the second half of the year, a pattern that may repeat in 2024 due to current investor fears regarding real estate risks [17][18] - The report notes that the brokerage sector may be experiencing a short-term rotation, with historical patterns indicating that brokerages often perform well at the end of market rallies or during rapid market upswings [19][20] Group 3 - The report anticipates that the A-share market may experience a slight pullback from late May to July, driven by policy expectations and tariff impacts, but expects a return to a bullish market state in Q4 [22][24] - The report emphasizes a preference for value-oriented investments in the current quarter, with a focus on sectors such as banking, real estate, and military industry, while also highlighting the potential of new consumption trends [26][28] - The report suggests that the financial sector remains undervalued, with regulatory encouragement for ETF development and long-term capital inflows likely benefiting banks and related sectors [29]