Quantitative Models and Factor Construction Factor Selection and Data Processing Pipeline - The MSCI Barra CNE5 model includes 10 primary factors and 21 secondary factors, covering classic academic factors such as beta, size, and book-to-price ratio, as well as fundamental and technical factors like value, growth, momentum, and residual volatility[22][23][24] - Secondary factors are standardized and weighted to synthesize primary factors, with weights optimized for explanatory power. However, later versions of MSCI Barra shifted to equal weighting for simplicity[23] - Data processing pipeline includes six steps: defining the base universe, outlier handling, missing value imputation, standardization, primary factor synthesis, and secondary outlier/standardization adjustments[31][32][35] Pure Factor Return Estimation - Pure factor returns are estimated using constrained weighted least squares (WLS). Constraints are introduced to address multicollinearity caused by the inclusion of intercepts (country factors)[44][45][49] - WLS weights are inversely proportional to the square root of market capitalization, ensuring smaller residual variance for larger stocks[45] - The solution for pure factor returns is derived using matrix transformations and Cholesky decomposition, ensuring variance homogeneity[46][57][59] Evaluation of Risk Factors and Factor Systems - MSCI Barra's six-dimensional evaluation criteria include statistical significance, stability, intuition, completeness, simplicity, and low multicollinearity[75][76][77] - Quantitative metrics such as average absolute t-values, variance inflation factors (VIF), and pure factor performance are used to assess factor quality. Factors like beta, liquidity, and size exhibit strong statistical significance but may overlap in information[83][84][85] Practical Applications of Risk Models - Risk models are applied for performance attribution in external products (e.g., public equity funds) and internal portfolios (e.g., brokerage "gold stock" portfolios). Attribution results include style/sector exposures and return/risk contributions[148][151][181] - For public equity funds, factor and idiosyncratic returns are decomposed to classify funds into "style advantage" or "stock-picking advantage" categories[152][153][155] - For brokerage gold stock portfolios, attribution reveals the superior performance of newly added stocks due to idiosyncratic returns, while recent underperformance is linked to systematic exposure to small-cap factors[157][169][170] --- Factor Backtesting Results Daily Frequency Results - **Beta**: Annual return 8.20%, annual volatility 4.87%, IR 1.69[86][111] - **Size**: Annual return -6.82%, annual volatility 4.57%, IR -1.49[86][105] - **Liquidity**: Annual return -9.46%, annual volatility 3.10%, IR -3.05[86][123] - **Value**: Annual return 4.32%, annual volatility 2.40%, IR 1.80[86][134] Monthly Frequency Results - **Beta**: Annual return 2.64%, annual volatility 3.95%, IR 0.15[95][111] - **Size**: Annual return -7.02%, annual volatility 5.99%, IR -0.26[95][105] - **Liquidity**: Annual return -5.74%, annual volatility 2.77%, IR -0.45[95][123] - **Value**: Annual return 2.94%, annual volatility 2.87%, IR 0.22[95][134] Gold Stock Portfolio Attribution - **All Gold Stocks**: Total return 61.86%, factor return -54.02%, idiosyncratic return 83.46%[171] - **Newly Added Gold Stocks**: Total return 83.50%, factor return -59.75%, idiosyncratic return 108.20%[174] - **Repeated Gold Stocks**: Total return 6.39%, factor return -44.66%, idiosyncratic return 19.60%[162] Factor Contribution Analysis - **Beta**: Positive contribution across all years, cumulative return 35.75% for all gold stocks, 44.47% for newly added gold stocks[175][176] - **Liquidity**: Negative contribution, cumulative return -48.67% for all gold stocks, -57.24% for newly added gold stocks[175][176] - **Size**: Mixed contribution, cumulative return 72.78% for all gold stocks, 97.27% for newly added gold stocks[175][176]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam, which imposes a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam, is expected to improve export chain sentiment [12][6] - The manufacturing PMI in China showed a slight recovery in June 2025, indicating improved new orders and production indices, which may contribute to a positive outlook for the industry [12][24] Company Summaries 1) Jiao Cheng Ultrasonic - The company focuses on ultrasonic equipment and solutions, achieving a revenue of 148 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.35%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 23.63 million yuan, up 2152.47% [3][13] - The business recovery in the new energy sector, particularly in lithium battery expansion, is expected to bring performance elasticity [13] 2) Zhenghe Industrial - Engaged in the research, manufacturing, and sales of various chain transmission systems, the company reported a revenue of 395 million yuan in Q1 2025, a 6.32% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 53.84 million yuan, up 100.09% [4][14] - The company is developing a micro-chain system project, focusing on robotic dexterous hand transmission technology, which may benefit from the mass production of humanoid robots [14] 3) Lvtian Machinery - The main products include general power machinery and high-pressure cleaning machines, with energy storage products entering mass production. Revenue growth rates for Q3 2024, Q4 2024, and Q1 2025 are projected at 47.9%, 72.5%, and 50.1%, respectively [5][15] - The company is expected to experience a performance turning point, indicating a positive outlook for valuation recovery [15] Industry Overview - The mechanical index (CITIC) increased by 0.41% last week, while the overall market indices also showed positive growth [16][19] - The manufacturing sector's fixed asset investment in China grew by 8.5% year-on-year from January to May 2025, indicating a recovery trend [24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The aviation industry's profitability framework is influenced by capacity supply, travel demand, load factor, ticket price performance, fuel prices, and exchange rate fluctuations, which ultimately affect company profit performance [16][2] - Domestic travel demand is steadily increasing, while international routes have largely recovered to 2019 levels [3][31] - Supply chain disruptions are delaying aircraft deliveries, leading to a contraction in capacity supply [4][6] Summary by Sections Demand - Domestic air passenger traffic increased by 4.2% year-on-year from January to May 2025, with high load factors sustained [3] - International passenger traffic has nearly returned to 2019 levels, with recovery rates of 106.3% for passenger volume and 101.0% for turnover by May 2025 [31][33] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption are expected to enhance public leisure travel demand, thereby increasing aviation travel demand [3][37] Supply - The growth rate of capacity introduction is slowing, and aircraft leasing prices are rising due to ongoing supply chain issues [4] - The average fleet utilization rate is expected to have limited improvement during peak seasons, with a significant gap remaining compared to 2019 levels [5] - The number of grounded aircraft for maintenance has increased, exacerbating capacity constraints [6] Supply and Demand Balance - The industry is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with load factors returning to high levels, and ticket prices are expected to rise during peak seasons [6] - In 2023, ticket prices reached historical highs, but are projected to decline in 2024 before rebounding in 2025 [7] - Airlines are likely to benefit from rising ticket prices and declining fuel costs, leading to high earnings elasticity [8] Revenue and Cost Sensitivity - Airlines can maximize revenue through high load factors and unit revenue per route, with domestic capacity growth slowing and international capacity gradually recovering [8] - Fuel cost pressures are expected to ease, with average fuel prices declining year-on-year [8] - Sensitivity analysis indicates that a 1% increase in ticket prices could significantly boost profits for major airlines [8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a positive outlook for the aviation industry, emphasizing the potential for improved supply-demand dynamics and ticket price recovery during peak seasons [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the power industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the wind and solar installations are reaching a peak, while thermal power generation has turned from negative to positive growth [1][3] - The introduction of connection mechanisms in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang has put pressure on incremental projects, with varying levels of protection for existing and new projects [3][10] - The report anticipates that the profitability of the power sector is likely to improve and undergo a value reassessment due to the easing of power supply and demand tensions [4][11] Monthly Sector and Key Listed Company Performance - In June, the power and utilities sector declined by 0.5%, underperforming the broader market, while the CSI 300 index rose by 2.5% [12][4] - The top three performing companies in the power sector for June were Guodian Power (5.91%), Inner Mongolia Huadian (1.73%), and Yangtze Power (-0.20%) [14][4] Monthly Power Demand Analysis - In May 2025, total electricity consumption increased by 4.40% year-on-year, with industrial electricity consumption showing a slight decline [17][19] - The electricity consumption growth rates for the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries were 8.40%, 2.10%, and 9.40% respectively [19][27] Monthly Power Supply Analysis - In May 2025, total electricity generation increased by 0.50% year-on-year, with thermal power generation rising by 1.20% [38][39] - The average utilization hours for different power generation types in May were as follows: thermal power 1644 hours, hydro power 1023 hours, nuclear power 3237 hours, wind power 952 hours, and solar power 460 hours [4][39] Monthly Power Market Data - The average purchase price of electricity in July was 367.34 RMB/MWh, a decrease of 4.41% month-on-month and 6.05% year-on-year [4][11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that coal-electricity integrated companies and national coal-electric leaders are likely to benefit from the ongoing market reforms and improved profitability [4][11] - Recommended companies include Xinji Energy, Shaanxi Energy, and Huaihe Energy among others [4][11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that BYD leads the domestic brand sales with a total of 2.145 million vehicles sold in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 33% [2][3] - New energy vehicle sales are experiencing significant growth, with BYD's sales reaching 378,000 units in June, a year-on-year increase of 11% [3] - The report notes that new entrants in the market, such as Leap Motor, Li Auto, and Xpeng, have shown strong performance, with Leap Motor achieving a record monthly sales of 48,000 units in June, a year-on-year increase of 138.7% [3] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - BYD's June sales reached 383,000 units, with a total of 2.145 million units sold in the first half of the year, achieving 39% of its annual target of 5.5 million units [3] - SAIC Group reported a wholesale sales figure of 365,000 units in June, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, with a total of 2.053 million units sold in the first half of the year, up 12.4% year-on-year [3] - Geely's new energy vehicle sales in June were 122,000 units, accounting for 52% of its total sales, with a cumulative total of 725,000 units in the first half, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 126% [3] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the new energy vehicle segment is growing rapidly, with a 40.2% increase in sales for the segment [3] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with new models being launched and market dynamics shifting, impacting sales for some companies [2][3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Regarding the bond market in July, the report is relatively optimistic and suggests maintaining medium to high durations [3][52][53]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market in July is expected to undergo a transformation from quantitative to qualitative changes, driven by the accumulation of favorable factors in the fundamental, liquidity, and policy aspects, leading to new lows in yields [3][7][52]. - The main risk in the bond market in July is whether the equity market will experience a continuous upward trend. However, as long as the equity market does not rise significantly and continuously, its impact on the bond market may be mainly at the emotional level and may not affect the market trend [3][52]. 3. Summary by Directory Short - term Interest Rates Have Not Fully Priced in Potential Easing - Since June, the funding price has been continuously loose, with DR001 dropping to around 1.35%. However, the performance of short - and medium - term interest rates has been relatively moderate, not fully pricing in potential rate cuts and central bank bond purchases [8]. - The central bank's policy orientation is somewhat unclear due to conflicting policy goals. It has gradually downplayed explanations of liquidity operations, but since March, its policy of prioritizing cost reduction remains unchanged. The funding price in June did not reach the steady - state level within the current policy framework, and further rate declines are expected in July [7][10][12]. - The probability of a rate cut in Q3 cannot be ruled out, but it is likely to occur after August. The funding in July is likely to remain loose. Although the current funding price may be approaching the equilibrium level, it is still necessary to focus on whether DR001 can break through the 1.3% lower limit or the stable state of DR007. As the funding remains loose and the expectation of a Q3 rate cut intensifies, it will drive short - term interest rates lower [3][13][18]. Allocation Demand Is Expected to Be Gradually Released - In June, the demand from allocation players was insufficient, which was the main reason why long - term bonds did not break through significantly. However, factors dragging down allocation demand may gradually fade in July [19]. - From the perspective of banks, the top of the certificate of deposit (CD) rate appeared in early June, and the CD rate continued to decline, indicating that the banks' liability pressure has been significantly relieved. However, banks' willingness to allocate bonds has not significantly increased, which may be affected by the half - year - end factor and the limited returns from allocating long - term bonds in a flat yield curve environment. As the impact of the previous deposit rate cut gradually emerges and short - term interest rates are expected to decline further, banks' allocation willingness is expected to gradually increase after the half - year - end [27]. - Although the central bank did not restart bond purchases in June, the large - scale banks continued to increase their net purchases of short - term bonds in the secondary market. The expectation that this is a precursor to the central bank's bond purchases cannot be refuted, which is expected to bring potential downward pressure on short - term interest rates [30]. - In June, the allocation willingness of insurance institutions and wealth management products for interest - rate bonds was weak, but they increased their allocation of credit bonds and commercial bank perpetual bonds. With the possible further decline in the insurance policy - setting rate in Q3 and the expected decline in wealth management product yields, the constraints on their allocation behavior are expected to ease. If the funding remains loose in July and institutional liability costs continue to decline, allocation demand is expected to be gradually released [31][35]. The Downward Pressure on the Fundamentals May Further Appear in Q3 - Since Q2, the domestic economic momentum has declined, but it still maintains some resilience. The market's expectation of further policy easing has weakened, which is an important reason for the narrow - range fluctuation of long - term interest rates. However, the downward pressure on the fundamentals in Q3 may further emerge [36]. - In terms of exports, although the China - US trade negotiations are ongoing, the probability of a short - term adjustment to the tariff rate is limited. The boost from the front - loading of exports is gradually weakening, and the downward pressure on export growth may increase after July [37]. - In terms of domestic demand, consumption growth may slow down marginally due to the over - consumption in May and the withdrawal of consumption subsidies in June. Real estate investment growth may remain relatively low, and although the issuance of new special bonds has accelerated, its increase may be limited. Manufacturing investment growth has also declined since Q2 [39]. - The control of capacity expansion may have a short - term negative impact on economic sentiment if there is no incremental demand. The June manufacturing PMI index, although rising for the second consecutive month, is still below the boom - bust line, and the sub - items reflect that business entities are still cautious about the future situation. If the policy maintains a "supporting but not boosting" tone, the pressure on the fundamentals in Q3 may further increase [47][48]. The Bond Market in July Is Expected to Undergo a Transformation from Quantitative to Qualitative Changes; Pay Attention to the Risk Appetite Changes in the Equity Market - With the accumulation of favorable factors in the fundamental, funding, and policy aspects, the bond market in July is expected to experience a transformation from quantitative to qualitative changes, driving yields to new lows. - As long as the equity market does not rise significantly and continuously, its impact on the bond market may be mainly at the emotional level and may not affect the market trend. The report is relatively optimistic about the bond market in July, expecting the yield curve to continue to steepen downward. It is recommended to maintain a combination of 3 - year policy - bank bonds, long - term and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds, and 5 - year credit bonds, and to pay attention to old 3 - 5 - year policy - bank bonds and medium - and long - term secondary perpetual bonds [3][52][53].

创新药行情持续火热，建议关注 PD-1/L1 双抗及多抗 [Table_Industry] 医药生物行业周报 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 7 月 6 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 医药生物 医药生物 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_A 唐爱金 uthor 医药首席分析师 ] 执业编号：S1500523080002 邮 箱：tangaijin@cindasc.com 贺鑫 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524120003 邮 箱：hexin1@cindasc.com 曹佳琳 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500523080011 邮 箱：caojialin@cindasc.com 章钟涛 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524030003 邮 箱：zhangzhongtao@cindasc.com 赵丹 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524120002 邮 箱：zhaodan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 ...

银行行业近期受资金青睐， 北交所、医药主题基金上半年业绩靠前 —— 量化市场追踪周报（2025W27） 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 4 月 27 日 证券研究报告 金工研究 [Table_ReportType] 金工定期报告 [Table_Author] 于明明 金融工程与金融产品 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 吴彦锦 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523090002 联系电话：+86 18616819227 邮 箱：wuyanjin@cindasc.com 周君睿 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523110005 联系电话：+86 19821223545 邮 箱：zhoujunrui@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 量化市场追踪周报(2025W27)：银行行业近期受资 金青睐，北交所、医药主题基金上半年业绩靠前 [Table_Re ...

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that recent market and policy focus on de-capacity and anti-involution may signify the late stage of the overcapacity cycle, with market-driven capacity reduction already underway, regardless of policy [2][10][11] - Since 2021, the continuous decline in corporate revenue has led to a cumulative year-on-year negative growth in capital expenditure across the entire A-share market, marking the longest period of negative growth since 2005 [10][11] - De-capacity is a crucial part of the capacity cycle, but its short-term impact on profitability is limited if demand does not show a turning point; supply policies mainly affect the height of future price reversals rather than the direction of prices [10][11] Group 2 - The process of de-capacity typically follows three steps: declining revenue and profits lead to reduced capital expenditure, which subsequently results in a decrease in capacity growth [3][11] - The effects of de-capacity are often only visible when demand improves; during periods of declining industry prices, the supply-demand balance tends to be in a low-cost zone, meaning most companies are losing money [15][17] - The current overcapacity is primarily driven by the decline in the real estate sector since 2021, with a need to monitor whether a second demand decline similar to 2014-2015 will occur [18][21] Group 3 - The current judgment suggests a strategic outlook similar to 2013 and 2019, with a high probability of developing into a comprehensive bull market, although tactical indicators may require time to break through the recent trading range [23][24] - The market is expected to experience fluctuations in July, but a return to a bull market is anticipated in the latter part of Q3 or Q4, contingent on either earnings or policy turning optimistic [23][24] - Recent configuration suggestions include a focus on value in the short term, with potential increases in exposure to elastic industries after Q3 [26][29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices have generally increased as of July 4, 2025, with Brent and WTI prices at $68.30 and $62.36 per barrel respectively [2][8] - OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, which is putting pressure on the market, while a trade agreement between the US and Vietnam has led to optimistic market expectations [2][8] - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown a positive performance, with the sector rising by 0.51% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's increase of 1.54% [9][12] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of July 4, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $68.30 per barrel, up $1.50 per barrel (+2.25%), while WTI crude futures settled at $62.36 per barrel, down $3.16 per barrel (-4.82%) [24] - The Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, and ESPO crude increased by $1.21 per barrel (+1.93%) [24] Offshore Drilling Services - As of June 30, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 380, an increase of 2 from the previous week [32] - The number of global floating drilling platforms remained at 134 [32] US Oil Supply - As of June 27, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.433 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.02 million barrels per day [49] - The number of active drilling rigs in the US was 425, down by 7 rigs [49] US Oil Demand - As of June 27, 2025, US refinery crude processing was 17.105 million barrels per day, an increase of 118,000 barrels per day [60] - The US refinery utilization rate was 94.90%, up by 0.2 percentage points [60] US Oil Inventory - As of June 27, 2025, total US crude oil inventory was 822 million barrels, an increase of 4.084 million barrels (+0.50%) [71] - Strategic crude oil inventory was 403 million barrels, up by 239,000 barrels (+0.06%) [71] Product Oil Prices - As of July 4, 2025, average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel in the US were $99.33, $88.28, and $91.43 per barrel respectively [91] - In Europe, average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were $95.29, $95.32, and $97.15 per barrel respectively [95] Product Oil Supply - As of June 27, 2025, US production of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel was 962.1, 503.4, and 191.8 thousand barrels per day respectively [104]