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调味品及餐饮供应链24年及25年一季报回顾:整体业绩平淡,龙头强者恒强
CMS· 2025-05-07 15:10
推荐(维持) 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 07 日 整体业绩平淡,龙头强者恒强 调味品及餐饮供应链 24 年及 25 年一季报回顾 消费品/食品饮料 24 年看,整体需求弱复苏,企业普遍梳理渠道减轻库存压力。受益于成本下 行,板块毛利率改善,但竞争加剧下费用率有所提升,企业盈利分化。合并 24Q4+25Q1 看,板块受制于需求弱复苏及餐饮平淡,收入端相对承压,但海 天为代表的龙头企业率先完成调整,业绩更优。25 年看,预计成本端平稳,行 业费用投放相对稳定,若收入端加速复苏,则板块盈利能力有望进一步改善。 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 143 | 2.8 | | (%) 食品饮料 | | 沪深300 | | 总市值(十亿元) 30 | 5074.1 | 6.0 | | 流通市值(十亿 20 | 4823.6 | 6.2 | | 元) | | | 行业指数 0 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 2.6 5.1 8.3 相对表现 4.0 10.5 4.1 资料来源:公司数据、招商证券 -30 -20 -10 May/2 ...
新化股份(603867):一季度业绩环比大幅增长,合成香料增量贡献明显
CMS· 2025-05-07 15:10
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in quarterly performance, with synthetic flavor contributions being notable [1] - The company's main products experienced a decline in average selling prices, but synthetic flavor sales saw substantial growth [7] - The company is actively advancing key project constructions and promoting lithium extraction technology [7] - Profit forecasts have been adjusted due to the weak market conditions for main products, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 being 275 million, 326 million, and 375 million respectively [7] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.966 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.22%, while net profit decreased by 10.18% to 227 million [1][8] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 765 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.81%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.54% [1] - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was 21.9%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.4 percentage points but an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous quarter [7] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 3.343 billion, 3.775 billion, and 4.188 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13% for each year [3][15] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.43, 1.69, and 1.94 respectively [8][15] Key Financial Ratios - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 8.9% in the latest period to 12.9% by 2027 [4][15] - The asset-liability ratio is expected to decrease from 36.8% to 36.3% over the same period [4][15]
行业景气观察:五一出行需求持续增长,3月全球半导体销额同比增幅扩大
CMS· 2025-05-07 15:10
证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 05 月 07 日 五一出行需求持续增长,3 月全球半导体销额同比增幅扩大 定期报告 ——行业景气观察(0507) 本周景气度改善的方向主要在消费服务和信息技术领域。上游资源品中,化工品、 金属价格多数下跌;中游制造领域,4 月重卡销量同比转正,3 月太阳能发电装 机容量累计同比增幅扩大。信息技术中,DDR4 价格上行,3 月全球半导体销售 额同比增幅扩大。消费服务领域,中药材、猪肉、肉鸡苗价格上行。五一假期期 间居民出行意愿处在高位,商品和文旅消费持续活跃。推荐景气较高或有改善的 化学制药、白色家电、旅游及景区、农林牧渔、半导体等。 风险提示:产业扶持度不及预期,宏观经济波动。 相关报告 《生鲜乳价格上行,3 月金属成形 机床产量同比增幅扩大(0424)》 《3 月社零总额当月同比增幅扩 大 , 智 能 手 机 产 量 同 比 转 正 (0416)》 《2 月全球半导体销售额同比增 幅收窄,食糖价格指数上行 (0409)》 《3 月制造业 PMI 环比上行,2 月主要企业工程机械销售普遍 改善(0402)》 《"两新"领域生产端持续改善, 2 月 LCD 出货量 ...
507会议简评:“双降”落地后的市场走向
CMS· 2025-05-07 15:10
Group 1: Policy Overview - The central bank announced ten policies to support market stability and expectations, leading to a steepening of the bond yield curve and a comprehensive rise in the stock market on May 7[2] - The "double reduction" policy was influenced by significant changes in macroeconomic conditions, including a notable decline in the manufacturing PMI and pressures on the real estate market[3] - The policy measures include quantity-type policies (e.g., reserve requirement ratio cuts), price-type policies (e.g., interest rate reductions), and structural policies (e.g., new financial tools)[4] Group 2: Interest Rate Adjustments - The policy interest rates were reduced by 10 basis points (BP), while structural policy rates were cut by 25 BP, enhancing the attractiveness of structural financing tools[6] - The personal housing provident fund loan rate was also reduced by 25 BP, reflecting the government's commitment to stabilizing the real estate sector[6] Group 3: Structural Tools and Support - Two significant structural tools were introduced: the "service consumption and pension re-loan" of 500 billion and the "technology innovation bond risk-sharing tool," aimed at boosting service consumption and supporting technological innovation[8] - The merger of two capital market support tools allows for greater support for listed companies without increasing the total quota, addressing the active financing needs of these companies[7] Group 4: Market Implications - The monetary policy easing is viewed as the beginning of a series of measures rather than a one-time action, with the next political bureau meeting in July expected to provide further strategies based on economic conditions[9] - The bond yield curve showed a clear "long end weak + short end strong" characteristic, indicating a need for short-term rates to lead the curve steepening in response to liquidity changes[9]
政策专题:“一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期”发布有哪些增量信息?
CMS· 2025-05-07 14:04
证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 05 月 07 日 "一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"发布有哪些增量信息? ——政策专题(0507) "一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"发布会超预期部署超过 20 项增量政策, 落地全面降准降息、四月政治局会议提到的新增结构性货币政策工具、以及经 济主题记者会提到的公募基金改革方案等政策,诚意满满,有望推动市场风险 偏好持续上行。 ❑ 风险提示:政策理解不全面、经济数据及政策不及预期、海外政策超预期收 紧。 专题报告 相关报告 1、《四月政治局会议有哪些要 点?——政策专题(0425)》 2025-4-25 2、《历史上,我国出台过哪些 促消费政策 —— 扩内需政策 研究专题(一)》2025-04-07 3、《经济主题记者会值得重点 关注的 19 条重要增量信息—— 政策点评报告》2025-03-07 4、《2025 年政府工作报告怎么 看?对 A 股有什么影响?—— 政策专题》2025-03-05 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 郭佳宜 S1090525040003 guojiayi@cmschina.co ...
申能股份(600642):一季度煤电检修影响电量,新能源开启规模化发展
CMS· 2025-05-07 13:33
Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for the company [3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 29.619 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.944 billion yuan, up 14.04% year-on-year [6][7] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.337 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.09% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.011 billion yuan, down 12.82% year-on-year [6][7] - The company's coal-fired power generation volume in 2024 was 58.623 billion kWh, an increase of 6.4% year-on-year, benefiting from increased electricity demand [6][7] - The company is accelerating its transition to renewable energy, with significant progress in wind and solar power projects [6][7] Financial Data and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.109 billion yuan, 4.296 billion yuan, and 4.432 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4%, 5%, and 5% [6][7] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 10.5x for 2025, 10.0x for 2026, and 9.7x for 2027 [6][7] - The company has a total market capitalization of 43.2 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 43.0 billion yuan [3]
华能国际(600011):25年一季报点评:火电盈利继续修复,投资收益增长
CMS· 2025-05-07 12:04
Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for Huaneng International [3] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 revenue was CNY 60.335 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 4.973 billion, an increase of 8.19% [1][6] - The recovery in thermal power profitability continues, supported by a decline in fuel costs, despite a decrease in electricity generation and average on-grid electricity prices [6] - The overall profitability has improved significantly, with investment income further supporting earnings growth [6] Financial Data and Valuation - Projected total revenue for 2025 is CNY 230.528 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 6% [2] - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is CNY 11.540 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14% [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 10.0x for 2025, 9.2x for 2026, and 8.5x for 2027 [6][9] Operational Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved an on-grid electricity generation of 1,066.33 billion kWh, a decrease of 5.66% year-on-year, with a corresponding average on-grid electricity price of CNY 488.19 per MWh, down 1.96% [6] - The coal power segment's profit totaled CNY 3.982 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40.96%, with a profit per kWh of CNY 0.048, up CNY 0.017 year-on-year [6] - The photovoltaic segment saw a significant increase in generation, with 4.871 billion kWh, a year-on-year growth of 51.18% [6] Shareholder Information - The major shareholder is Huaneng International Power Development Company, holding a 32.28% stake [3]
惠泰医疗(688617):业绩符合预期,PFA等新品获批进军房颤治疗领域
CMS· 2025-05-07 09:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.066 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.18%, and a net profit of 673 million yuan, up 26.08% year-on-year [1] - The company has entered the atrial fibrillation treatment market with the approval of new products such as AForcePlusTM catheter and PulstamperTM catheter [2] - The financial performance remains robust, with a comprehensive gross margin increase of 1.05 percentage points to 72.31% in 2024 [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a comprehensive gross margin of 72.31%, with a net profit margin of 31.86% [3] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 564 million yuan, a 23.93% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 183 million yuan, up 30.69% year-on-year [1] - The company forecasts revenues of 2.691 billion yuan, 3.475 billion yuan, and 4.553 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 900 million yuan, 1.172 billion yuan, and 1.535 billion yuan [3][10] Business Segments - The electrophysiology segment generated 440 million yuan in revenue in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.73%, with over 15,000 three-dimensional electrophysiology surgeries performed [2] - The vascular intervention segment reported revenues of 1.054 billion yuan for coronary products and 351 million yuan for peripheral products, with significant increases in new admissions [2] Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have a PE ratio of 45, 34, and 26 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][10] - The current stock price is 413.0 yuan, with a market capitalization of 40.1 billion yuan [5]
长江电力(600900):1Q25来水稳增,抽蓄+新能源蓄势待发
CMS· 2025-05-07 06:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for the company [3] Core Views - The company achieved an operating revenue of 84.492 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 32.496 billion yuan, up 19.28% year-on-year [7] - In Q1 2025, the company reported an operating revenue of 17.015 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.181 billion yuan, up 30.56% year-on-year [7] - The favorable water conditions contributed to the increase in hydropower generation, with a total generation of 295.904 billion kWh in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.11% [7] - The company is actively developing pumped storage and renewable energy projects, with significant progress in various initiatives, including the Gansu Zhangye project and the Yunnan solar projects [7] - The company's profitability improved, with a gross margin of 59.13% and a net margin of 38.97% in 2024, reflecting effective cost reduction measures [7] Financial Performance Summary - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 0.943 yuan per share for 2024, with a payout ratio of 71% [7] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 34.638 billion yuan, 35.623 billion yuan, and 36.300 billion yuan, respectively, indicating growth rates of 7%, 3%, and 2% [7][8] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 20.6x for 2025, 20.0x for 2026, and 19.7x for 2027 [7][8] Key Financial Metrics - The company reported a total market capitalization of 71.4 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 70.05 billion yuan [3] - The return on equity (ROE) for the trailing twelve months (TTM) is 15.6% [3] - The debt-to-asset ratio stands at 59.6% [3]
中直股份(600038):24年实现营收稳增,盈利能力预计持续提升
CMS· 2025-05-07 02:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 29.766 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.93%, and completed 97% of its annual budget. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 556 million, down 7.98% year-on-year, completing 78% of the annual budget. The non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was 482 million, up 19.68% year-on-year [1][7]. - For 2025, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 30.249 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.63%, and a net profit of 604 million, a year-on-year increase of 8.66%, with a projected net profit margin of around 2%, an increase of 0.38 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company forecasts net profits of 612 million, 723 million, and 850 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 29.766 billion, with a breakdown showing the Harbin division achieving 20.943 billion (up 24% year-on-year) and the Jingdezhen division achieving 10.058 billion (up 71% year-on-year) [7]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 10.47%, an increase of 0.34 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 1.62%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company’s total assets are projected to be 51.159 billion in 2025, with total liabilities of 34.405 billion, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio of 67.3% [16][18]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation of 48, 41, and 35 times earnings for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, maintaining a "Strong Buy" rating [8]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 66.4 in 2023 to 34.5 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [18].