Core Insights - The recent escalation of the US-China supply chain and tariff conflict is a continuation of trade frictions since 2018, and it is not a new negative factor for the A-share market. Historical experience shows that such shocks often create phase low points and investment opportunities [2][6][10] - Compared to the tariff shock in April this year, the current market has more favorable conditions, including investor expectations of tariff threats and stronger market resilience due to key resistance levels being surpassed [4][10] - Short-term adjustments are inevitable, but the market still shows resilience, with the potential for new highs after the shock ends. This adjustment may serve as an opportunity to optimize the investment structure [2][10] Industry and Company Analysis - The classic response strategy to the US-China conflict emphasizes self-sufficiency and domestic circulation, suggesting a focus on sectors with relatively low positions and marginal improvements, such as military industry, semiconductors, software self-sufficiency, new consumption, and non-ferrous metals [2][10] - The current market sentiment is bolstered by a stronger willingness of residents to invest, increased protective actions from important institutional investors, and accelerated trends in new industries like artificial intelligence and semiconductors, which provide long-term value during corrections [4][10] - The average guarantee ratio in the market has significantly improved from 261% in April to 287%, enhancing the market's ability to withstand downturns despite a larger scale of financing [4][9][10] - The recent market dynamics indicate that sectors such as gold, copper, cobalt, photovoltaic batteries, lithium battery equipment, wind power, semiconductors, and automotive are experiencing improvements or high levels of prosperity [4][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [4][29]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall decline of 1.5% during the week of October 5 to October 11, 2025, with various segments showing mixed performance [2][10]. - New energy vehicle sales reached record highs in September, with Leap Motor delivering over 60,000 units, marking a significant milestone for the industry [21]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration, announced adjustments to the technical requirements for the exemption of vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles for 2026-2027 [22]. Market Performance Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index fell by 0.5%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 3.9% during the same period [2][8]. - The automotive sector's secondary segments mostly declined, with the automotive services sector showing a notable increase of 1.7% [10]. Individual Stock Performance - Among automotive stocks, Meili Technology saw the highest increase at 18.9%, while Mingxin Xuteng experienced the largest decline at 18.5% [3][12]. - Key covered stocks showed a mixed performance, with Kabeiyi rising by 13.2% and Hengshuai falling by 10.6% [15]. Recent Industry Developments - BYD announced the production of its 14 millionth new energy vehicle, marking a significant milestone in its global expansion [23]. - Changan Avita completed the payment for the acquisition of a 10% stake in Huawei's subsidiary, marking the completion of the transaction [24]. - Tesla's Q3 vehicle deliveries increased by 7.4% year-on-year, exceeding analyst expectations, with a total of 497,099 vehicles delivered [25]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong sales performance or potential blockbuster vehicles, such as BYD, Seres, Great Wall Motors, and Jianghuai Automobile [7]. - For commercial vehicles, it suggests investing in Yutong Bus, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, and Weichai Power [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the performance of the quantitative fund market during the period from September 27 to October 10, 2025. During this period, the A - share market rose comprehensively, quantitative funds generally performed well, and the excess returns of index - enhanced funds rebounded [1][2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Index and Quantitative Fund Performance - A - shares rose comprehensively, with the yields of CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 being 1.47%, 2.17%, and 1.84% respectively [3][6]. - Quantitative funds generally performed well, and the excess returns of index - enhanced funds rebounded. Active quantitative funds rose by an average of 1.43%. The CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index - enhanced funds recorded positive excess returns of 0.16%, 0.19%, and 0.25% respectively. Market - neutral funds rose by an average of 0.51% [4][9]. 3.2 Performance of Different Types of Public Quantitative Funds - **CSI 300 Index - Enhanced Funds**: The current - period yield was 1.63%, the excess return was 0.16%, the maximum drawdown was - 1.62%, the excess maximum drawdown was - 0.44%, and the excess return dispersion was 0.46% [14]. - **CSI 500 Index - Enhanced Funds**: The current - period yield was 2.36%, the excess return was 0.19%, the maximum drawdown was - 1.39%, the excess maximum drawdown was - 0.56%, and the excess return dispersion was 0.43% [14]. - **CSI 1000 Index - Enhanced Funds**: The current - period yield was 2.09%, the excess return was 0.25%, the maximum drawdown was - 0.93%, the excess maximum drawdown was - 0.48%, and the excess return dispersion was 0.37% [15]. - **Other Index - Enhanced Funds**: The current - period yield was 1.01%, the excess return was 0.14%, the maximum drawdown was - 2.49%, the excess maximum drawdown was - 0.50%, and the excess return dispersion was 0.51% [15]. - **Active Quantitative Funds**: The current - period yield was 1.43%, the maximum drawdown was - 1.47%, and the return dispersion was 1.31% [16]. - **Market - Neutral Funds**: The current - period yield was 0.51%, the maximum drawdown was - 0.18%, and the return dispersion was 0.45% [16]. 3.3 Performance Distribution of Different Types of Public Quantitative Funds The report shows the six - month performance trends of different types of public quantitative funds and the performance distribution in the current period and the past year. Index - enhanced funds show the performance of excess returns [17]. 3.4 High - Performing Public Quantitative Funds - **CSI 300 Index - Enhanced High - Performing Funds**: For example, Huashang 300 Zhixuan had a current - period excess return of 1.72%, a one - month excess return of 4.35%, and a one - year excess return of 8.18% [31]. - **CSI 500 Index - Enhanced High - Performing Funds**: For example, Guangda CSI 500 Index - Enhanced had a current - period excess return of 1.28%, a one - month excess return of - 1.14%, and a one - year excess return of - 0.39% [32]. - **CSI 1000 Index - Enhanced High - Performing Funds**: For example, ICBC CSI 1000 Enhanced Strategy ETF had a current - period excess return of 1.19%, a one - month excess return of 1.18%, and a one - year excess return of 21.20% [33]. - **Other Index - Enhanced High - Performing Funds**: For example, Taikang Shanghai - Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation Board Composite Index - Enhanced had a current - period excess return of 1.53%, a one - month excess return of 1.33% [34]. - **Active Quantitative High - Performing Funds**: For example, Huian Quantitative Pioneer had a current - period return of 11.59%, a one - month return of 11.36%, and a one - year return of 44.53% [35]. - **Market - Neutral High - Performing Funds**: For example, ICBC Absolute Return had a current - period return of 1.91%, a one - month return of 2.31%, and a one - year return of 2.07% [36].

Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Tensions - Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, 2025, in response to China's rare earth export controls[1] - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection will impose port fees on Chinese-owned vessels starting October 14, 2025[1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce added several Chinese entities to the export control list on October 8, 2025[1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The tariff threat is seen as a bargaining chip rather than a definitive action, with a low probability of the 100% tariff being implemented[2] - Both countries are likely to extend export controls to more sectors, with the U.S. potentially adding more Chinese companies to the control list[2] - Trump's immediate goal is to secure more direct investments and benefits for U.S. farmers, particularly in agricultural exports to China[2] Group 3: Economic Impact - If the 100% tariff is fully implemented, it could reduce China's exports by approximately 11.3 percentage points and increase U.S. inflation by about 3.2 percentage points[3] - The report suggests that the actual impact may be less severe due to factors like re-exports and delays in tariff transmission[3] Group 4: Market Reactions - Increased tariff risks may lead to heightened volatility in equity markets, with potential adjustments of 10-20% expected[2] - Despite short-term risks, the long-term outlook for equity assets remains cautiously optimistic as Trump may seek to stabilize the situation[2]

本报告重点聚焦 ETF 基金市场表现，总结过去一周 ETF 基金市场、不同热门 细分类型 ETF 基金、创新主题及细分行业 ETF 基金的业绩表现和资金流动， 供投资者参考。 ❑ 市场表现： 本周（9 月 29 日-10 月 10 日）股票 ETF 走势分化。其中，沪港深主题 ETF 和 A 股周期 ETF 涨幅较高，规模以上基金平均上涨 10.42%、8.30%。相 反，沪港深行业 ETF 和港股消费 ETF 小幅下跌，规模以上基金分别平均下 跌 1.38%、1.00%。 ❑ 资金流动： 资金大幅流入 A 股 TMT ETF 和 A 股中游制造 ETF，全周资金分别净流入 163.41 亿元、144.10 亿元。相反，A 股主题 ETF 和港股宽基 ETF 出现小 幅资金流出，全周资金分别净流出 11.60 亿元、6.97 亿元。 ❑ 风险提示：图表中列示的数据结果仅为对市场及个基历史表现的客观描述， 并不预示其未来表现，亦不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议。 徐燕红 S1090524120003 xuyanhong@cmschina.com.cn 季燕妮 S1090525040002 jiyanni@cmsc ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the market is expected to favor large-cap stocks in October, with growth stocks likely to continue outperforming due to historical trends and current market conditions [1][3][11] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" policy expectations are anticipated to maintain high market risk appetite, contributing to the performance of high-end manufacturing and AI industry chains [1][3][11] - The upcoming third-quarter earnings reports are expected to show significant improvements, particularly in growth-oriented sectors [1][3][11] Group 2 - External liquidity conditions are improving, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October, which may benefit large-cap and leading stocks [1][3][11] - The report highlights that ETFs are becoming a significant source of incremental capital, favoring the performance of leading and mid-to-large-cap stocks [1][3][11] - Historical data shows that large-cap styles have a higher probability of outperforming in October and the fourth quarter, with technology growth expected to remain strong [12][19][23] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and upcoming economic data releases, which could impact market sentiment [6][26][27] - The analysis of past performance indicates that financial and TMT sectors tend to perform well in the fourth quarter, with a notable focus on high-end manufacturing and technology [19][23][24] - The report suggests that the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" meeting will influence market dynamics, with a focus on cyclical sectors and high-tech manufacturing [26][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company is a leading enterprise in photovoltaic conductive paste and has strengthened its industry position through the acquisition of Zhejiang Suote. Additionally, the company's semiconductor second curve business is beginning to ramp up, with products in sintered silver and silicon carbide-related fields starting to industrialize [1][7]. - The semiconductor electronic materials business has shown significant growth, achieving revenue of 11.54 million in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 75.1%. The company is focusing on high-value automotive applications, indicating substantial future growth potential [10][12]. - The acquisition of Shenzhen Yinmeng in 2024 allows the company to enter the storage chip sector, with expected revenues of 0.75 billion and 1.89 billion for 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively. The storage chip business is anticipated to perform positively due to the industry's rapid development [12][13]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 9.603 billion in 2023 to 20.416 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% [2][23]. - The company's net profit is expected to decline from 386 million in 2023 to 251 million in 2025, before recovering to 737 million by 2027 [2][23]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 25.5 in 2023 to 13.3 in 2027, indicating a potential undervaluation as earnings recover [2][23]. Company Developments - The acquisition of Zhejiang Suote for 696 million in cash has been completed, enhancing the company's intellectual property and R&D capabilities, which is expected to improve business scale and profitability [7][8]. - The company has begun to industrialize products related to automotive dimming glass and silicon carbide, indicating a diversification of its product offerings [1][7]. - The semiconductor materials business is gradually expanding, with a focus on high-value applications in the automotive sector, which is expected to drive future growth [10][11].

招证银行金融数据前瞻 9 月社融货币预测 总量研究/银行 2025 年 9 月是季末月，预计信贷同比多增，社融、M2 和 M1 增速均回升。 ❑ 未贴现承兑汇票：预计 9 月净增加 2000 亿元，同比多增 0.07 万亿元。 证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 10 月 09 日 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 41 | 0.8 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 10423.4 | 9.9 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 9780.8 | 10.3 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -6.0 3.7 16.6 相对表现 -9.2 -15.7 1.0 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Oct/24 Jan/25 May/25 Sep/25 (%) 银行 沪深300 相关报告 1、《上市银行"十四五回望"之信 贷结构变迁 — 银 行 研 思 录 21 》 2025-09-29 2、《上市银行"十四五回望"之资 负结构与息差变迁—银行研思录 20》 2025-09-28 3、 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the circular economy, focusing on the second-hand electronics market, particularly in mobile and 3C recycling, and is expected to continue increasing its market share as the industry grows [1][7]. - The company has established strategic cooperation with JD.com, enhancing its advantages in recycling, disposal, and sales [1][7]. - The report highlights the company's multi-category recycling efforts and community-focused high-frequency recycling initiatives, which are anticipated to further enhance its growth potential [1][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the leading player in the domestic second-hand 3C recycling market, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33% in revenue over the past five years [7][19]. - The company operates four main business lines: Aihuaishou, Pai Jitang, Paipai, and overseas business AHS Device, achieving a total transaction volume of 35.3 million units in 2024 [13][19]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 12.966 billion in 2023, growing to 16.328 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 31% [2]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 401 million in 2025 and 622 million in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 28% and 55% respectively [2][19]. - The company has shown a consistent improvement in profitability, with Non-GAAP net profit margin reaching 1.9% in 2024 [19]. Industry Overview - The second-hand electronics market is experiencing rapid growth, with the total transaction scale expected to reach approximately 645 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.6% [30][37]. - The recycling penetration rate for second-hand electronics remains low, with projections indicating significant room for growth as consumer awareness increases [49][50]. Competitive Landscape - The second-hand electronics industry is characterized by low concentration, with the company and its competitor, Zhuanzhuan, holding market shares of 7.9% and 7.4% respectively in the recycling segment [7][54]. - The company employs a multi-channel approach, integrating C2B, B2B, and B2C models to optimize its operations and enhance customer satisfaction [7][54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Vipshop (VIPS.N) [3][5][6] Core Insights - The revenue trend for Q3 is expected to align with guidance, achieving positive growth, with a projected year-on-year increase of 2%. The improvement is noted in both the wearable and standard product categories, alongside a steady increase in user growth and stable profitability, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin expected to remain around 7% [2][5][6] - The long-term brand value and consumer base of the company are solid, supported by its competitive edge in the branded discount sector and continuous enhancements in supply chain capabilities and marketing strategies. The core customer base is steadily expanding, with SVIP users showing double-digit year-on-year growth [2][5][6] Financial Data and Valuation - The projected main revenue for 2023 is 112.856 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 9.4%. The Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 9.510 billion CNY, reflecting a 39.1% increase [3][9] - The target valuation is set at 25.29 USD, with the current stock price at 20.45 USD, indicating a potential upside [3][5] - Key financial metrics include a projected PE ratio of 7.6 for 2023 and a return on equity (ROE) of 19.36% [4][10] User and Product Trends - Q3 is anticipated to show improvements in user trends, with overall user numbers expected to return to positive year-on-year growth. The recovery in consumer sentiment and enhanced procurement capabilities are contributing factors [2][5] - The wearable category is expected to perform better, with women's and men's apparel, as well as shoes and bags, showing signs of recovery in year-on-year growth [2][5]