Travel Insights - During the May Day holiday from April 30 to May 3, the total cross-regional flow exceeded 1.1 billion, with an average daily flow of 282 million, showing a significant increase of 26.79% compared to 2019[6] - The daily passenger volume for rail, road, waterway, and air transport was 1,978.05 million, 25,843.50 million, 168.75 million, and 222.5 million respectively, with road transport accounting for 91.6% of total passenger flow[6] - The migration scale index reached 1158.69, up 15.60% from 2023 and 21.41% from 2024, indicating a strong willingness for long-distance travel[8] Tourism Performance - Domestic tourism showed significant growth, with a 25% increase in market heat compared to last year, outpacing growth in higher-tier cities by 11 percentage points[34] - The number of domestic flights during the holiday period was approximately 96,515, up 18.3% from 2019, while international flights were 13,399, down 9% from 2019[20] - Popular outbound destinations included Japan and South Korea, with growth rates of 51.52% and 17.16% respectively, while Thailand saw a decline of 17.56%[21] Movie Market Trends - The total box office for the May Day holiday was only 515 million, significantly lower than the 1.528 billion from the previous year, indicating a decline in consumer interest[37] - The average ticket price was 39.52 yuan, down 2.2% from 2024 and 9.19% from 2019, reflecting a decrease in consumer spending on cinema[37] - Box office revenue was highest in second-tier cities at 226 million, while first-tier cities only contributed 86 million[37] Consumer Behavior - The "trade-in for new" consumption model saw a 61% increase in sales during the holiday, with significant growth in regions like Zhejiang and Beijing, where increases were 112.05% and 95.2% respectively[44] - Retail and dining sectors experienced notable growth, with Hubei province reporting a 6.35% increase in transaction volume compared to 2024[43] - Major cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu saw substantial consumer activity, with daily sales exceeding 40 million yuan in food and beverage sectors[43] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales during the holiday showed slight improvement compared to last year, with first-tier cities leading in sales intentions, although overall market sentiment remains cautious[48] - Various promotional measures were implemented across provinces, including purchase subsidies and increased loan limits for second homes, aimed at boosting market confidence[48] - The sales area during the holiday was better than last year, with first-tier cities outperforming second and third-tier cities[48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][6][7] Core Views - The company's main business operations remain stable, with significant achievements in educational publishing and digital transformation [6] - The company reported a revenue of 9.172 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.07% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 810 million yuan, down 36.91% year-on-year [6][7] - The company has a strong cash reserve of 2.314 billion yuan as of Q1 2025 and has implemented an active dividend policy, distributing a total of 1.384 billion yuan in cash dividends over the past three years [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 91.72 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.07% due to various factors including changes in consumer habits and reduced income from after-school services [6] - The revenue from textbooks and educational materials was 84.62 billion yuan, an increase of 1.91% year-on-year, while general book revenue was 18.14 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.98% [6] - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.10 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 36.91% year-on-year, primarily due to one-time impacts from tax and accounting adjustments [6][7] Future Outlook - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 11.80 billion yuan, 12.84 billion yuan, and 13.26 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.4, 12.3, and 11.9 [6][7] - The company is expected to benefit from the extension of tax incentives for state-owned publishing enterprises in 2025, which will eliminate the impact of income tax expenses [6] Market Position - The company has enhanced its digital capabilities, becoming the first in the country to include digital textbooks in the free teaching materials directory, and has significantly increased the issuance of its learning cards [6] - The company has also expanded its international presence, with 319 types of book copyrights exported, including successful exports to Southeast Asia [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has shown a significant improvement in performance, with a clear recovery in domestic business and continued growth in international markets [9] - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 645 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19%, while the net profit is expected to be 124 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 19% compared to the previous year [4][11] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 155 million yuan in 2025, with a corresponding PE ratio of 36.6x [9][12] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 182 million yuan, with a net profit of 40.34 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 38.5% and 58.6% respectively [1][2] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 186 million yuan, with a net profit of 40.58 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 27.73% and 32.3% respectively [1][2] - The company’s gross margin remains high at approximately 90.9% for 2024, with a net profit margin of 19.2% [12] Business Segments - Domestic revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 216 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.76%, while international revenue is projected at 429 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 19.62% [9] - The company has expanded its product offerings, with the number of products generating over 1 million yuan in sales increasing from 70 in 2023 to 95 in 2024 [9] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a gradual improvement in its non-GAAP profit margin, with projections indicating a net profit of 1.55 billion yuan in 2025, 1.87 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.28 billion yuan in 2027 [9][12] - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to innovation and product development, integrating advanced technologies such as AI and gene editing into its offerings [9]

❑ 中美关税博弈、全球贸易格局改变的背景之下，自主可控、科技安全将会 更加作为我国产业发展的关键战略，政府部门将持续加码对该领域的政策 扶持，国产替代进程加速预期持续强化。 风险提示：本报告仅作为投资参考，基金产品过往业绩并不预示其未来表现， 亦不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议，新发基金无历史业绩可参考。 如何把握央国企引领下的数字经济发展投资机遇？ 发展数字经济是把握新一轮科技革命和产业变革新机遇的战略选择，对于我国 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 任瞳 S1090519080004 rentong@cmschina.com.cn 刘凯 S1090524120001 liukai11@ cmschina.com.cn 杨航 S1090523010004 构建新发展格局，推动建设现代化经济体系，构筑国家竞争新优势具有重大战 略意义。富国中证诚通国企数字经济 ETF（159385.OF），一键布局央国企引 领下的数字经济发展方向，值得投资者在当前市场环境下重点关注。 ——富国中证诚通国企数字经济 ETF 投资价值分析 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 5 月 6 日 专题报告 yanghang4@cmschina ...

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 05 月 06 日 港币触及强方兑换保证，美国非农数据超预期 ——金融市场流动性与监管动态周报（0506） 五一期间人民币、港币汇率大幅走高，港币兑美元升值至强方兑换保证水平。 从历史数据看，港币触及强方兑换保证后 A/H 股大概率表现较好。海外方面美 国 4 月非农数据超预期，市场对于首次降息时点预期延后至 7 月。展望 5 月， 市场可能会呈现"权重指数回升，科技成长活跃"的格局。风格方面，偏科技、 中小风格有望重新回归。 定期报告 相关报告 1. 《招商 A 股流动性研究体系与 流动性指数——A 股市流动性研 究之四》，2016 年 8 月 2. 《A 股机构投资者全景图—股 票市场 SCP 范式研究之一》， 2017 年 10 月 3. 《银行理财规模持续上升，ETF 转为净流出——金融市场流动性 与监管动态周报(0429)》 | 招商 A 股流动性指数 | | | --- | --- | | 流动性指标 | 数值/金额（亿元） | | 资金供给 | | | 公募基金发行 | 91.02↓ | | ETF 净申购 | -143.82↓ | | 融资净买入 | ...

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 5 月 6 日 融资资金有望回流，小盘成长风格回归 ——A 股流动性与风格跟踪月报（202505） 进入 5 月后， A 股由春节效应、春季攻势、业绩披露期等带来的季节效应结束， 市场风格的季节性效应弱化，综合 A 股盈利增速改善、中美贸易摩擦边际缓和 概率逐渐增大、外部流动性环境友好、以及融资资金可能逐渐回流，我们认为 A 股风格有望向小盘成长风格漂移。 ❑风格展望：小盘成长风格有望回归。进入 5 月后， A 股由春节效应、春季攻势、 业绩披露期等带来的季节效应结束，市场风格的季节性效应弱化，综合 A 股盈利 增速改善、中美贸易摩擦边际缓和概率逐渐增大、外部流动性环境、以及 A 股增 量资金结构变化，我们认为 A 股风格有望逐渐向小盘成长风格漂移。具体来说， 第一，2025 年一季度 A 股上市公司非金融石化企业净利润增速回升转正，从历史 来看，这比较有利于短期小盘成长风格表现。第二，目前中美双方就关税问题处 于僵持局面，但贸易摩擦最悲观的阶段已经过去，随着时间推移，中美开始磋商 的概率增大，不确定性风险会逐渐下降。第三，非农数据公布后，市场开始预期 6 月美联 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 05 月 06 日 推荐（维持） 饿了么宣布百亿补贴，五一假期跨区域人员流动量平稳增长 商贸社服行业周报 消费品/商业 本周餐饮旅游板块指数下降 1.74%，表现弱于沪深 300 指数(下跌 0.43%)和创 业板指数(上涨 0.04%)；商贸零售板块指数本周下跌 1.85%，表现弱于沪深 300 指数、创业板指数。 | % | 1m | 6m | 12m | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -0.4 | 34.6 | 25.6 | | 相对表现 | -1.1 | 28.9 | 14.4 | 本周子板块相关观点：1）电商：行业竞争格局好于预期，龙头电商公司估值低 位，推荐阿里巴巴、京东集团、拼多多、唯品会。2）OTA：携程出境游&海外 业务延续高增长，关注出境游修复进程及海外市场拓展情况，推荐携程集团。3） 本地生活：外卖及到店空间与壁垒仍具，盈利弹性凸显，重点推荐美团。4）共 享出行：龙头份额企稳、盈利增长潜力大，推荐滴滴出行。 抖音本地生活 0 佣金招商优质商家。4 月 29 日，抖音生活服务针对优质零售 商家，推出五项扶 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.786 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.90%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 180 million yuan, up 16.84% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 864 million yuan, a 22.46% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 73.77 million yuan, reflecting a 47.00% growth year-on-year [1]. - The company is expanding its personalized education business, increasing the number of learning centers from over 240 to more than 300, and enhancing its offline network [7]. - The financial condition has improved significantly, with contract liabilities reaching 932 million yuan, a 29.76% increase year-on-year, and the company actively repaying loans [7]. - The company has initiated a share repurchase plan of 110 to 150 million yuan, demonstrating confidence in its future development [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - The total revenue for 2023 was 2.213 billion yuan, with projected revenues of 2.786 billion yuan for 2024 and 3.482 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a growth rate of 23% and 26% respectively [2][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 180 million yuan in 2024 to 234 million yuan in 2025, with corresponding PE ratios of 35.9 and 27.6 [8][11]. - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 3.568 billion yuan by 2025, with a significant improvement in the asset-liability ratio from 81.3% in 2023 to 71.1% in 2025 [9][11]. Performance Metrics - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 25.1% in 2024 and 24.8% in 2025, indicating strong profitability [11]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 34% over the next few years, while the net margin is projected to improve from 6.5% in 2024 to 7.6% in 2027 [11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 1.47 yuan in 2024 to 1.92 yuan in 2025 [8][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 12.26 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.155 billion yuan, up 6.8% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the acquisition of New Trend Media, which is projected to enhance industry concentration and lead to a "Davis Double" effect [7] - The company maintains a high dividend policy, with a proposed total dividend of 4.766 billion yuan for 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 92.4% [7] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.858 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.7%, and a net profit of 1.135 billion yuan, up 9.14% year-on-year [1] - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 11.904 billion yuan in 2023 to 14.062 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4% [3][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 4.827 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.955 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [8] Market Position and Strategy - The company’s elevator media network has expanded to approximately 1.26 million devices, a 19.2% increase from the end of 2023, indicating strong market penetration [7] - The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector remains a key growth driver, contributing 7.591 billion yuan in revenue, a 13.4% increase year-on-year, and accounting for 61.9% of total revenue [7] - The company has achieved profitability in markets such as Hong Kong and Singapore, while continuing to expand its overseas operations [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [3] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 60.797 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.55%. However, it recorded a net loss attributable to shareholders of 291 million yuan [1][7] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 14.258 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.66% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 96 million yuan, an increase of 16.01% [1] - The company's overseas advertising business generated 48.333 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 29.36%, accounting for 79.5% of total revenue [7] - The "All in AI" strategy has been deepened, with AI driving a significant revenue increase, achieving over 1 billion yuan in revenue from AI-enabled services [7] Financial Data Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 52.616 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 65.052 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 7% [2][11] - The company is expected to return to profitability in 2025 with a net profit of 392 million yuan, following a loss in 2024 [2][12] - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 22.371 billion yuan in 2024 to 25.241 billion yuan by 2027 [10] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from -3.8% in 2024 to 5.0% in 2025 [12]