证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 07 日 货币政策再宽松驱动股债双牛 ——5 月 7 日央行一揽子货币政策解读 核心观点 2025 年 5 月 7 日国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，央行行长潘功胜提出一揽子货币 政策措施，主要有三类十项政策，我们将其总结为 5 类重点工具： 分析师：李超 执业证书号：S1230520030002 lichao1@stocke.com.cn 分析师：费瑾 执业证书号：S1230524070007 feijin@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 工具 1：央行降准 50BP，旨在推动适度宽信用，并缓解政府债集中供给出现的资金面 扰动；工具 2：央行降息 10BP 并引导 LPR 回落，旨在降低实体部门融资成本；工具 3：结构性货币政策利率下调，再贷款额度扩围；工具 4：优化两项支持资本市场的货 币政策工具，旨在依托对市场最熟悉的上市公司和行业机构主动识别优质上市公司， 自行决定是否加杠杆买股票，进而用市场化的手段，促进金融市场长期健康发展；工 具 5：创设科技创新债券风险分担工具，助力传统的城投平台正加速向科创产业 ...

证券研究报告 | 季度行业策略报告 | 房地产 重申估值筑底凸显配置价值 ——行业点评报告 我们认为有少部分房企 2025 年盈利可能提前迎来改善，这类房企的特点在于 1）前期计提减值充分；2）项目聚焦核心 30 城，资产价格率先回暖；3）开发 业务收缩较快，非开发业务利润打底，稳住公司盈利基本盘。典型案例如华润置 地和新城控股。 投资要点 ❑ 维持 2025 年度策略投资思路 3 月 12 日我们外发报告《25Q2 地产投资策略：估值筑底凸显配置价值》中提到 "25Q2 是地产板块估值磨底阶段"—— 关于如何看待 Q2 利空因素，决定了地 产板块估值的下限问题。我们认为，当一方面跟踪到 5 月销售基本面淡季不淡， 而另一方面房企 2024 年体现出公司利润逐步筑底、利空出尽的时候，这意味着 地产板块的估值或达到了底部，具有反弹的潜力。 根据我们 2022 年的专题报告《鉴以往知未来之房地产周期底部特征研究》，复 盘历次周期地产板块股价和房价的表现，我们可以比较直观的看到，房企估值的 拐点受价格变化影响早于盈利改善，主要是由于房企利润结算受竣工影响有滞 后。资产价格的修复从房企开始取消降价销售策略就已经开始， ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of RMB internationalization in achieving "financial autonomy and controllability," especially in the context of escalating tariff disputes globally. The establishment of the CIPS system and the mBridge project are highlighted as key initiatives to enhance the ability to respond to financial sanctions [1][2][18]. RMB Internationalization Theme Evaluation - The RMB internationalization theme received a composite score of 62.86 based on seven dimensions, with high scores in future imagination space, trading congestion, and policy support [3][20]. - The evaluation criteria included market capitalization capacity, policy support intensity, industry coverage, valuation levels, trading congestion, performance realization capability, and future imagination space [20][24]. RMB Internationalization Concept Stock Pool - A stock pool consisting of 18 stocks was constructed based on cross-border trade, payment, and logistics, reflecting potential beneficiaries of RMB internationalization [3][23]. - The stock pool's performance was backtested from March 29, 2024, to May 5, 2025, showing an excess return of 35.64% compared to the Wind All A Index, with a notable excess return of 12.44% after April 8, 2025 [3][29]. RMB Internationalization Index - The RMB internationalization index was created based on the concept stock pool, using free float market capitalization for weighting, with a maximum weight of 10% for any single stock [26]. - The index demonstrated a growth of 47% from March 29, 2024, to May 5, 2025, outperforming the Wind All A Index by 35.64% [29].

Market Overview - On May 6, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13%, the CSI 300 increased by 1.01%, the STAR 50 gained 1.39%, the CSI 1000 climbed 2.57%, the ChiNext Index went up by 1.97%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.7% [4] - The best-performing sectors on May 6 were Computer (+3.65%), Communication (+3.59%), Comprehensive (+3.38%), Machinery Equipment (+3.04%), and Media (+2.82%). The worst-performing sectors were Banking (-0.13%), Food & Beverage (+0.35%), Beauty & Personal Care (+0.43%), Oil & Petrochemicals (+0.66%), and Coal (+0.74%) [4] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on May 6 was 13,644.47 billion, with a net inflow of 13.476 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Important Recommendations - The report highlights Huadong Cable (605196) as a leading company in "cables + oil service materials" with promising overseas expansion, particularly in the African electrolytic aluminum project, which is expected to exceed expectations [5] - The recommendation logic indicates that the company is a typical "outbound" enterprise with continuous improvement in overseas capacity layout, and the electrolytic aluminum project is anticipated to double the company's profits [5] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 estimate revenues of 7,377.70 million, 9,925.67 million, and 11,393.83 million, with growth rates of 16.24%, 34.54%, and 14.79% respectively. Net profits are projected at 330.15 million, 752.43 million, and 1,064.84 million, with growth rates of 3.39%, 127.90%, and 41.52% respectively [5] Key Insights - The strategy research indicates a historical pattern in the A-share market from 2010 to 2024, characterized by "April weakness, May not poor, June absolute, and July rebound" [6][7] - In terms of sector performance, May typically sees strong results in Food & Beverage, Pharmaceutical & Biological, Electronics, and Computers, while June favors Electronics, and July benefits cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, steel, basic chemicals, defense, agriculture, and social services [7] - The report suggests that calendar effects may influence the performance of the entire A-share market and sector indices [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the growth of emotional consumption and high-quality domestic products, indicating a robust performance in the light industry sector [1][5] - The report anticipates a recovery in traditional consumption sectors, with a focus on companies that are expected to reach performance inflection points in the second half of the year [9][10] Summary by Sections 1. Economic Overview - The overall economic environment is described as weak, but there is structural prosperity in consumption [5] 2. Performance Review for 24A & 25Q1 - Emotional consumption and high-quality domestic products have shown significant growth, with companies like Pop Mart and others demonstrating strong performance [9] - Traditional consumption sectors are expected to stabilize and recover, with companies such as Oppein Home, Gujia Home, and others being highlighted for their potential [9] 3. Sub-sector Performance - **Home Products**: 24A revenue decreased by 0.28% YoY, while net profit dropped by 16.21%. However, 25Q1 showed a revenue increase of 3.79% and a net profit increase of 10.78% [9] - **Paper Industry**: 24A revenue decreased by 1.25% YoY, with a significant drop in net profit of 136.6%. 25Q1 saw a revenue decline of 13.04% and a net profit decrease of 91.72% [9] - **Packaging**: 24A revenue increased by 2.55% YoY, but net profit fell by 16.81%. In 25Q1, revenue grew by 9.2% and net profit increased by 19.7% [9] - **Cultural and Entertainment Products**: 24A revenue increased by 7.64% YoY, with a net profit decrease of 8.81%. 25Q1 showed a slight revenue increase of 2.42% and a net profit decrease of 6.95% [9] - **Personal Care Products**: 24A revenue increased by 6.30% YoY, with a net profit decrease of 4.71%. 25Q1 saw a significant revenue increase of 26.13% and a net profit increase of 12.94% [9] 4. Fund Holdings Analysis - The fund holding ratio for the light industry sector decreased to 2.28%, with notable changes in specific sub-sectors [12] - Companies like Sun Paper, Morning Glory, and others are leading in fund holdings, particularly in emotional consumption categories [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is maintained as "Buy" [4] Core Views - The report highlights the healthy development of inventory and focuses on new products and mid-tier products for 2025. The company is expected to continue optimizing its product structure, with an emphasis on high-end liquor and expansion into markets outside its home province [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 360.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, and a net profit of 122.43 billion yuan, up 17% [8] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 165.23 billion yuan, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth, while net profit was 66.48 billion yuan, a 6% increase [8] - The gross margin for 2024 was 76%, with a net margin of 34%. In Q1 2025, the gross margin increased to 79% [1][3] Product and Market Strategy - The company reported that the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor increased by 14% to 265.32 billion yuan in 2024, while other liquor categories saw a 9% increase to 93.42 billion yuan [2] - The company is expanding its dealer network, adding 15 dealers in its home province and 598 dealers outside, indicating a strong focus on provincial expansion [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revenue growth forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 10%, with net profit growth forecasted at 8%. The EPS for 2025 is projected to be 10.84 yuan, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 19 times [3][4]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is experiencing a weak recovery with significant structural differentiation among sub-industries. The average revenue growth for listed companies in the basic chemical sector was 1.07% and 4.29% for 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively, while net profit growth was -9.3% and 11.9% [4][21] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the chemical industry fell by 2.8% year-on-year in March 2025, with specific declines in chemical raw materials and products, chemical fibers, and rubber and plastic products [4][9] - The highest net profit growth in Q1 2025 was observed in the following sub-industries: Chlor-alkali (129.52%), Fluorine chemicals (91.39%), Food and feed additives (68.1%), Other chemical raw materials (66.78%), and Pesticides (62.22%) [4][21] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The chemical industry is under pressure from overcapacity, with a weak recovery in demand. The performance of various sub-industries is not synchronized, leading to significant structural differentiation [4][82] - The average profit margin in March 2025 dropped to 4.45%, marking a historical low [4][18] 2. Sub-Industry Insights 2.1 Chlor-alkali - The chlor-alkali sector saw a significant increase in profitability in Q1 2025, driven by improved real estate sales and stable automotive production. However, prices have started to decline since April [24][34] 2.2 Refrigerants - The refrigerant market is experiencing price increases due to supply constraints and steady demand from the automotive and home air conditioning sectors. The average price for refrigerants rose by 58.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [35][41] 2.3 Food and Feed Additives - The demand for food and feed additives remains stable, with a low cost share in downstream products. The market for amino acids and vitamins has seen price increases, with significant growth in net profits for leading companies [44][50] 2.4 Other Chemical Raw Materials - A supply contraction has led to structural price increases for certain chemical raw materials, such as acrylic acid and polyols, with notable profit improvements for companies in this sector [60][64] 2.5 Pesticides - The pesticide industry is facing overcapacity, but there is potential for price increases in certain small varieties due to supply constraints and inventory depletion in overseas markets [67][79] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from domestic demand, such as phosphate and potassium fertilizer leaders, as well as firms in the vitamin and AI materials sectors. The impact of tariffs on exports is also highlighted as a factor to consider [83]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [8][14]. Core Insights - The company focuses on a circular economy model centered around cogeneration, establishing a robust resource-product-recycling resource chain with various enterprises in the Jiaxing Port area, while also developing an energy and chemical circular industry system internally, showcasing significant core advantages and stable operations [1][25]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns through high dividends and stock buybacks, with a combined dividend yield and buyback cancellation rate expected to approach 10% [6][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview and Business Model - The company has established a circular economy as its core development model, leveraging its cogeneration capabilities to expand into various chemical products, including caustic soda, PVC, and fatty alcohols, while focusing on domestic demand to mitigate tariff impacts [2][26]. - The company has a diversified product chain with significant production capacities, including 297,000 tons/year of caustic soda and 200,000 tons/year of fatty alcohols, and is actively enhancing its competitive edge through ongoing projects [4][29]. 2. Steam Business and External Circulation - As the only steam supplier in the Jiaxing Port area, the company benefits from strong policy and regional barriers, ensuring stable profitability through coal-heat linkage pricing and continuous optimization of cogeneration processes [3][49]. - The steam production has shown steady growth, with production increasing from 7.3 million tons in 2014 to 11.9 million tons in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 5.0% [58]. 3. Chemical Business and Internal Circulation - The company’s chemical business, particularly in caustic soda and fatty alcohols, demonstrates strong profitability, with caustic soda and fatty alcohols contributing significantly to overall gross profit [61][62]. - The company is positioned in the core consumption area of the Yangtze River Delta, enhancing its competitive advantage in the caustic soda market, where electricity costs are a major factor [4][66]. 4. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow steadily, with expected revenues of 104.12 billion, 115.83 billion, and 127.55 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 11.67 billion, 13.32 billion, and 15.12 billion yuan [7][13]. - The company maintains a low debt level, with an asset-liability ratio of only 22.69% as of the end of 2024, providing flexibility for future financial maneuvers [43].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [7] Core Views - The company reported a stable performance with a revenue of 5.007 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 482 million yuan, up 13.44% year-on-year [1][5] - The company is a leading exporter in the kitchen and bathroom manufacturing sector, with a strong overseas production capacity and delivery capabilities, maintaining solid profit margins [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the revenue from kitchen and bathroom products was 3.197 billion yuan, an increase of 11.4% year-on-year, while the revenue from water purification products reached 738 million yuan, up 18.4% year-on-year [2] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 25.96%, with a net profit margin of 9.63% [3] - The company plans to maintain high dividends, distributing a total of 326 million yuan in cash dividends in 2024, with a payout ratio of 67.6% [4] Long-term Outlook - The company is accelerating its overseas production layout, particularly in Thailand and Mexico, to mitigate the impact of tariffs and enhance market penetration [4] - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 5.362 billion yuan, 5.780 billion yuan, and 6.182 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 509 million yuan, 586 million yuan, and 645 million yuan [5][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 shows significant improvement driven by the oil and daily chemical sectors, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit [2][3] - The company is positioned well for growth due to its production capacity expansion and the rising profitability of its Dukuda base in Indonesia, benefiting from higher palm oil prices [3][9] - The daily chemical business is gradually maturing, with expectations for improved profitability as production capacity utilization and product structure optimization are prioritized [8][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.792 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.27%, and a net profit of 135 million yuan, up 53.99% [2][11] - For Q4 2024, revenue reached 3.228 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.23%, while Q1 2025 saw revenue of 3.429 billion yuan, up 40.50% year-on-year [1][2] Business Segments - The surface active agents segment generated revenue of 4.501 billion yuan in 2024, up 32.43% year-on-year, while the oil chemical segment reported revenue of 6.121 billion yuan, a 3.10% increase [2] - The company is actively expanding its Dukuda base, which has advantages in palm oil procurement and production costs, leading to improved profitability [3] Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 413 million yuan, 552 million yuan, and 663 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating strong growth potential [9][11] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are projected to be 0.88 yuan, 1.17 yuan, and 1.41 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 10.72, 8.01, and 6.67 [9][11]