证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 通信 全年业绩低点已过，AI 算力增长加速 ——电信运营商行业点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 25Q1 行业增速较缓，或为年内低点，全年节奏有望前低后高 25Q1 行业增速放缓，或受基数高、主动精细化项目管理等因素影响。2025 年一 季度，电信业务收入累计完成 4469 亿元，同比增速约 0.7%。我们认为，行业增 速较缓主要系多因素综合影响：一是，2024 年同期基数相对较高，2024Q1 的行 业整体收入无论从绝对值角度还是同比增速角度，均处于相对高位。二是，今年 以来宏观环境依旧复杂多变，随着国内一系列政策陆续部署出台，内需修复的持 续性仍需巩固。三是，运营商进行精细化项目管理，对部分高风险项目主动进行 管控。 2024 年经营数据季度分布呈现 U 形走势，Q2、Q3 基数相对较低。具体来看， 2024 年 1-3 月、1-6 月、1-9 月、1-12 月，行业整体电信业务收入累计增速分别 为 4.5%、3.0%、2.6%、3.2%。拆分单季度数据来看，2024Q1、Q2、Q3、Q4， 行业整体电信业务收入单季度同比增速分别为 4.5%、1.6%、1.8%、5.1%。参照 我们 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [6]. Core Insights - The company is engaged in dual business lines of touch display and power transmission, with a projected revenue CAGR of 25.5% from 2019 to 2024. The human-shaped robot sector is expected to provide new growth momentum [2][6]. Summary by Sections Touch Display Business - The touch display market is expected to benefit from AI development, with revenue projected to account for 49.3% in 2024. The global touch display market reached $35 billion in 2019 and is anticipated to grow steadily due to the smart device trend [3][46]. - The company has established stable partnerships with major clients such as Foxconn and BOE, focusing on high-margin products like dual-screen and curved-screen automotive touch displays [3][72]. Power Transmission Business - The power transmission market is experiencing stable growth, with a significant shift towards electrification. The global automotive transmission system market is projected to reach $147.09 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 2.4% from 2025 to 2033 [4][64]. - The company is actively expanding its product offerings in the electric drive transmission system components for new energy vehicles, collaborating closely with high-end clients like Toyota and BYD [4][31]. Human-Shaped Robot Sector - The company has invested in Wuxi Quanzhibo to expand into the human-shaped robot sector, which is entering a growth phase as international giants ramp up production [5][71]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 4.39 billion, 5.30 billion, and 6.19 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 200 million, 260 million, and 370 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 59%, 32%, and 41% respectively [6][8]. The projected P/E ratios are 48, 36, and 26 for the same period [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.589 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-over-year (YOY) increase of 30.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 453 million yuan, with a YOY increase of 31.59% [1] - The company has a historical high level of orders on hand, with accounts receivable reaching 2.428 billion yuan, a 40.30% increase compared to the beginning of the year [1] - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence and enhancing its research and development capabilities, with R&D expenses increasing by 32.98% in 2024 [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 932 million yuan, a YOY increase of 25.07%, but net profit decreased by 22.53% to 48 million yuan [3] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 26.5%, reflecting a decrease of 0.46 percentage points after accounting for policy changes [3] Business Segments - The data center cooling business generated revenue of 2.441 billion yuan in 2024, a YOY increase of 48.8%, with a gross margin of 27.0% [4] - The company has made significant advancements in liquid cooling technology, achieving cumulative deliveries of 1.2 GW by March 2025 [4] Research and Development - The company has established new technology research institutes in Shenzhen and Beijing, focusing on internal incubation of new products and technologies [2] - As of the end of 2024, the company held 102 invention patents, a 73% increase from the previous year [2] Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI data centers and the increasing penetration of liquid cooling technology [9] - The forecasted revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.267 billion yuan, 7.773 billion yuan, and 9.265 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 697 million yuan, 875 million yuan, and 1.053 billion yuan [14]

投资要点 ❑ 泡泡玛特发布 25Q1 业务状况 25Q1 收入同增 165-170%，环比加速（24H2 收入同增 143%），中国收入同增 95- 100%（24H2 收入同增 70.4%），海外同增 475-480%（24H2 收入同增 438%） 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 文娱用品 泡泡玛特(09992) 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 28 日 新品火爆接力，业绩再超预期，加速迈向"世界的泡泡玛特" ——泡泡玛特 25Q1 业务点评 ❑ 国内外均加速，新品火爆接力，IP 全球势能强化 中国：25Q1 线下收入同增 85-90%，线上同增 140-145%，店效环比再提升，多品爆 火，哪吒 2 盲盒爆火后，LABUBU 航海王联名盲盒、LABUBU 象棋大冒险毛绒、 DIMOO 迪士尼联名毛绒等持续接力，多业态贡献增量（小野品牌店/饰品快闪店）。 海外：25Q1 收入同增 475-480%，其中：1）亚太收入同增 345-350%（24H2 同增 413%）,东南亚景气延续，以泰国为中心蔓延邻国，电商高增；2）美洲收入同增 895-900%（24H2 同增 649%），美国加速开店且位置更优，预 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6][8] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 35.01 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.72%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.23 billion yuan, up 27.19% year-on-year [6][7] - The company is focusing on its pharmaceutical core business, demonstrating strong operational resilience, with significant growth in prescription drug sales due to the expansion into nearly 5,000 hospitals and primary healthcare institutions [6][7] - The company completed the acquisition of Yingu Pharmaceutical, enhancing its product portfolio with high-tech formulations, while maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of 70.64% [6][7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2027 are as follows: 35.01 billion yuan (2024), 41.80 billion yuan (2025E), 47.44 billion yuan (2026E), and 52.91 billion yuan (2027E), with respective growth rates of 5.72%, 19.41%, 13.49%, and 11.53% [2][6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 7.23 billion yuan in 2024 to 11.22 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 27.19%, 17.18%, 15.17%, and 15.03% respectively [2][6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 1.27 yuan in 2024 to 1.98 yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 17.20 to 11.08 [2][6] Profitability and Growth - The company’s net profit margin and return on equity (ROE) are projected to improve, with net profit margins of 20.64% in 2024 and 21.20% in 2027, and ROE increasing from 24.58% to 29.53% over the same period [7] - The gross margin for the manufacturing sector is expected to be 77.05% in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.59 percentage points [6][7] Strategic Outlook - The company is expected to maintain double-digit growth in its core business, driven by the strengthening of its "evidence-based traditional Chinese medicine" label and the expansion of its hospital network [6][7] - The OTC business is anticipated to recover due to improved online and offline marketing strategies [6][7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The report highlights significant investment opportunities in the humanoid robot sector, particularly in key components such as lead screws, harmonic reducers, and motors, with a projected market size of approximately 288 billion yuan for equipment at a production scale of 1 million humanoid robots [3][10] - The report recommends companies involved in the production of lead screws and harmonic reducers, emphasizing their potential growth in the humanoid robot market [3][5] Summary by Sections 1. Lead Screws - Lead screws are critical components for linear motion in humanoid robots, with a market size of 14 billion yuan for 1 million units produced [15][39] - Recommended companies include Zhejiang Rongtai and Shuanglin Co., with a focus on high-precision grinding machines and automatic straightening machines [3][19] 2. Harmonic Reducers - Harmonic reducers are essential for converting high-speed input to low-speed output while increasing torque, with a market size of 14 billion yuan for 1 million units produced [37][39] - Companies to watch include Meihua Co., Longsheng Technology, and Haoneng Co., with a focus on high-precision grinding and balancing equipment [3][41] 3. Motors - The report discusses the application of hollow cup motors and frameless torque motors in humanoid robots, with market sizes of 280 billion yuan and 204 billion yuan, respectively, at a production scale of 1 million units [3][48] - The report emphasizes the importance of motor technology in enhancing the performance and efficiency of humanoid robots [48] 4. Equipment Market Potential - The total potential market for equipment required for the mass production of humanoid robots is estimated at 288 billion yuan, with significant contributions from high-precision grinding machines and balancing machines [10][44] - The report outlines the necessary equipment and their respective market sizes, highlighting the importance of domestic suppliers in meeting production demands [10][44]

Core Insights - The report analyzes the investment value of fixed income funds managed by Huashang Fund's manager Li Qian, focusing on market environment, manager capabilities, and product characteristics [1][2]. Market Analysis - The equity market has shown a volatile upward trend over the past year, characterized by "strong expectations, weak realities," with a significant rebound since September 24, 2024, following unexpected policy shifts. However, recent tariff policies have led to stagnation [12][19]. - The bond market's safe-haven rally driven by tariff impacts may be temporarily concluding, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.75% [19][24]. - The convertible bond market has experienced a "V"-shaped recovery, with a positive outlook for price recovery, particularly in technology growth sectors [1][19]. Fund Manager Introduction - Li Qian, an economics PhD with 5.3 years of securities investment experience, has managed over 6.6 billion yuan in public funds, achieving a return of 119.63% for the Huashang Fengli Enhanced A fund during his tenure, ranking first among peers [2][41]. Product Characteristics Huashang Fengli Enhanced A - This fund exhibits characteristics of a convertible bond fund, achieving significant excess returns during the bull market from 2020 to 2021. Over the past five years, it has delivered a return of 119.63%, significantly surpassing its performance benchmark [3][43]. - The fund's asset allocation strategy has focused on convertible bonds and interest rate bonds, maintaining a maximum drawdown of no more than 3% while achieving high returns [3][43]. - In 2024, the fund's annualized return exceeded 10%, driven by active industry rotation and optimized leverage and duration management [3][44]. Huashang Credit Enhanced A - This fund also demonstrates strong characteristics of a convertible bond fund, achieving a balance between returns and risks across different market cycles. It recorded annualized returns of 20.53% and 33.49% in 2020 and 2021, respectively, significantly outperforming peers [4][5]. - The fund's performance turned negative in 2022-2023 due to macroeconomic downturns and rising interest rates, but it rebounded to an annualized return of 9.27% in 2024 [4][5]. Huashang Lixin Return A - This fund has shown aggressive characteristics through high leverage and industry rotation strategies, demonstrating defensive attributes in a weak market environment in 2023. Its performance improved significantly in 2024, with continued recovery in 2025 [6][5]. Fund Performance Metrics - Huashang Fengli Enhanced A achieved an annualized return of 16.92% over five years, with a total return of 118.69%, significantly exceeding its benchmark [46][44]. - The fund's asset allocation has shifted towards convertible bonds, which now constitute 97.75% of its portfolio, reflecting a strategy focused on high-risk assets [49][50]. - The fund's leverage ratio is higher than the industry average, enhancing its return potential while increasing volatility [54].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [9] Core Views - The company achieved a 23% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024, with a revenue of approximately 8.75 billion yuan, reflecting a 25% increase [2] - The cross-border logistics network in Africa is gradually taking shape, with a revenue of 2.45 billion yuan in 2024, up 22% year-on-year, and a gross profit margin of 30.6% [3] - The coal supply chain trade business saw a revenue of about 5.8 billion yuan in 2024, a 30% increase, with a gross profit margin of 13.3% [4] - The company is focusing on expanding its operations in Africa, particularly in Zambia and Tanzania, to enhance cross-border logistics [5] - The company has significantly increased its dividend payout ratio to 53.5% in 2024, up from 33.5% in 2023 [6] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.463 billion, 1.7 billion, and 1.975 billion yuan respectively, driven by dual engines of business in Mongolia and Africa [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of approximately 87.5 billion yuan, with a net profit of about 12.8 billion yuan, marking a 23% increase year-on-year [2] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of approximately 22.9 billion yuan, a 15% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.6 billion yuan, down 15% year-on-year but improved from the previous quarter [2] Business Segments - The cross-border logistics segment generated 2.45 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with a gross profit of 750 million yuan, reflecting a 31% increase in gross profit year-on-year [3] - The coal supply chain trade segment reported a revenue of approximately 58 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 7.6 billion yuan, a 46% increase year-on-year [4] - The land port project services generated 490 million yuan in revenue, with a gross profit of 280 million yuan, despite a slight decrease in gross profit margin due to increased amortization of franchise rights [5] Shareholder Returns - The company emphasized shareholder returns with a cash dividend of 680 million yuan in 2024, representing a payout ratio of 53.5% [6] Earnings Forecast - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.463 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 15% and 16% for the following years [7]

Important Recommendations - The report highlights the recommendation of Dayun Technology (688531) as a leading company in the industrial X-ray detection field, emphasizing its role in breaking overseas monopolies and driving domestic substitution in various sectors such as integrated circuits and electronic manufacturing [4][5] - The expected revenue growth for Dayun Technology from 2024 to 2026 is projected at 739 million, 993 million, and 1,263 million yuan, with growth rates of 26%, 34%, and 27% respectively [5] - The report also recommends Huqin Technology (603296) as a leading ODM manufacturer, focusing on stable growth in traditional business while developing new growth points in data communication and robotics, with projected revenue growth rates of 24.22%, 24.02%, and 24.67% from 2025 to 2027 [6][7] Key Insights - The macroeconomic analysis indicates that the short-term equity market may favor defensive sectors represented by low volatility dividends, while the bond market is expected to see a downward trend in interest rates [8] - The bond market is anticipated to experience a peak in the issuance of special bonds in Q2 2025, with government bond yields likely to rise due to various factors, including the optimization of local special bond review mechanisms [9] - The A-share strategy report suggests a continued narrow fluctuation in the market, with recommendations to focus on three main directions: large financial dividends, self-sufficiency in sectors like military industry, and domestic consumption [10][11] Company Analysis - Dayun Technology is positioned to enhance its gross margin through breakthroughs in high-end products and is expected to capture a larger market share through domestic substitution [4][5] - Huqin Technology's growth is driven by increased AI spending from internet clients, with significant revenue projections for the coming years [6][7] - X-ray source technology advancements and increased order growth are key factors contributing to Dayun Technology's competitive edge in the market [7] Performance Metrics - Dayun Technology's projected net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be 141 million, 219 million, and 301 million yuan, with growth rates of 24%, 55%, and 38% respectively [5] - Huqin Technology's net profit projections for 2025-2027 are 3.811 billion, 4.878 billion, and 6.105 billion yuan, with growth rates of 30%, 28%, and 25% [6][7] - The report indicates that Dayun Technology's sales from integrated circuits and electronic manufacturing are significantly increasing, while its share in the new energy sector is declining [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance met expectations, showing steady expansion with a focus on new project development and marketing efforts [1][5] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.417 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.49%, and a net profit of 1.049 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [5] - New projects, particularly in Guangdong and Xi'an, have shown strong performance, contributing significantly to revenue growth and market presence [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.739 billion yuan, 3.079 billion yuan, and 3.332 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 13.30%, 12.41%, and 8.23% respectively [5][6] - Net profit estimates for the same period are 1.186 billion yuan, 1.346 billion yuan, and 1.466 billion yuan, with growth rates of 13.07%, 13.52%, and 8.91% respectively [5][6] - The company reported a gross margin of 46.39% in Q4 2024, an increase of 6.82 percentage points year-on-year [5]