Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - The company's revenue met expectations, but financial expenses temporarily suppressed profit release. The company achieved an operating income of 79.024 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.572 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.23% [1][6] - The subsidiary, New H3C, benefited from domestic AI infrastructure, with its revenue growing by 6.04% to 55.074 billion yuan in 2024, and a significant increase of 26.07% in Q1 2025 [2] - The company experienced a substantial increase in inventory and contract liabilities, indicating potential overstocking of AI GPU chips, which may lead to exceeding expectations in AI server market share and profitability [3] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported an operating income of 20.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.25%, but a net profit decrease of 15.75% [1] - Financial expenses rose significantly due to the acquisition of New H3C, with Q1 2025 financial expenses reaching 386 million yuan, an increase of 310 million yuan from Q1 2024 [4] - The company forecasts net profits of 2.14 billion yuan, 2.81 billion yuan, and 3.13 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 34, 26, and 23 [6] Strategic Developments - The company is advancing its H-share listing, which may alleviate financial pressure and support global expansion efforts [5] - New H3C's international business grew by 32% in 2024 and 72% in Q1 2025, indicating strong growth potential in overseas markets [5]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's assessment of inflation and employment risks has increased, indicating a rising risk of "stagflation" with both unemployment and inflation on the rise[1] - The Fed's current policy stance remains neutral, with expectations of maintaining strong policy discipline throughout the year, focusing on inflation due to economic downward pressure[2] - The Fed is expected to gradually lower interest rates by 25 basis points each quarter in the second half of the year, although uncertainty exists regarding the June meeting and tariff clarifications[4] Group 2: Quantitative Policy and Market Stability - The Fed's balance sheet reduction is currently set at $5 billion for Treasury securities and $35 billion for MBS, with potential adjustments depending on market conditions[2] - Financial stability is anticipated to be a significant constraint on the Fed's quantitative policy in the second half of the year, especially if external factors lead to significant market volatility[4] - If the 10-year Treasury yield approaches 5%, the Fed may consider emergency bond purchases to stabilize the market[5] Group 3: Currency and Market Dynamics - The recent appreciation of Asian currencies is attributed to Asian institutions withdrawing from the U.S. Treasury market or increasing hedging ratios, leading to upward pressure on local currencies[5] - The cost of hedging foreign exchange has risen significantly, with the 3-month yen to dollar swap cost increasing from 0.3% at the end of 2021 to 4.1% by April 2025[6] - The dollar index is expected to remain volatile around 100, with limited short-term downward potential due to weak U.S. fundamentals and ongoing geopolitical tensions[7]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 08 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 05 月 08 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要观点 【浙商宏观 李超/费瑾】宏观专题研究：货币政策再宽松驱动股债双牛——20250507 3、资金 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：5 月 7 日上证指数上涨 0.8%，沪深 300 上涨 0.61%，科创 50 上涨 0.36%，中证 1000 上涨 0.14%，创业板指 上涨 0.51%，恒生指数上涨 0.13%。 行业：5 月 7 日表现最好的行业分别是国防军工（+3.7%)、银行（+1.49%)、基础化工（+1.15%)、房地产（+1.06%)、 石油石化（+0.91%)，表现最差的行业分别是传媒（-0.56%)、计算机（-0.42%)、电子（-0.37%)、社会服务（-0.24%)、 医药生物（-0.12%)。 资金：5 月 7 日全 A 总成交额为 15051 亿元，南下资金净 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 43.65 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 0.32%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 17.90 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.62% [2] - The IDC business showed steady development, generating revenue of 29.14 billion yuan in 2024, down 7.56% year-over-year, while the AIDC business achieved revenue of 14.51 billion yuan, up 21.03% year-over-year [4][5] - The company is expanding its energy consumption resources, with a 130% increase in energy consumption indicators compared to the end of 2023, and plans to deliver additional computing centers in 2025 [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 43.65 billion yuan, with a net profit of 17.90 billion yuan. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 9.08 billion yuan, down 45.64% year-over-year, and a net profit of 2.77 billion yuan, down 56.89% year-over-year [2] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.98 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 21.40%, while the net profit was 4.30 billion yuan, down 9.29% year-over-year [3] Business Segments - The IDC business generated 29.14 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, with a gross margin of 47.53%, down 6.93 percentage points year-over-year. The company has completed upgrades to several low-power data centers, which are expected to recover and generate new orders [4] - The AIDC business reported a revenue of 14.51 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 51.75%, up 18.65 percentage points year-over-year. The company is focusing on building new-generation intelligent computing centers to meet the growing demand [5] Growth Prospects - The company has a robust order backlog and plans to deliver five additional computing centers in 2025, totaling approximately 420MW. The focus will be on regions with high economic development and significant computing demand [6] - The company is also progressing with public REITs, having initiated the issuance process at the end of 2023, which is expected to enhance its financing capabilities [11] Profitability Forecast - The company aims for significant profit growth, with net profit targets set at 27.28 billion yuan, 31.83 billion yuan, and 36.37 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a growth rate of 50%, 75%, and 100% compared to 2024 [12] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 26.90 billion yuan, 33.12 billion yuan, and 41.02 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 31, 25, and 20 [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.32 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.6%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 14.0% year-on-year to 130 million yuan, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items increased by 8.2% year-on-year to 120 million yuan [1][2] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The revenue growth in Q1 was primarily driven by the consolidation of Roman's financials and the expansion of the national subsidy for small household appliances. The online retail sales of health pots, rice cookers, and steamers saw significant year-on-year increases of 38.4%, 13.0%, and 19.0%, respectively, during the period from December 30, 2024, to March 30, 2025 [2] Profitability Improvement - The company's net profit margin in Q1 was 9.8%, which is a decrease of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 3.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The gross profit margin decreased by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year to 36.8%. The sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, R&D expense ratio, and financial expense ratio improved year-on-year by 2.6, 0.4, 0.7, and -0.2 percentage points, respectively [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The expansion of national subsidies for small household appliances is expected to benefit the company, along with cost optimization that may lead to improved profit margins. The forecasted net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 are 400 million, 440 million, and 470 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 39.8%, 8.9%, and 7.7%, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios at the current stock price are projected to be 18x, 17x, and 15x [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company demonstrates strong operational resilience and is expected to continue delivering on its "Three New and Two Transformations" strategy [1] - The successful issuance of REITs marks the beginning of a new chapter in light asset operations, with significant funds raised to enhance the company's growth potential [2] - The CSO business has shown sustained high growth, expanding from retail to hospital channels, indicating strong momentum [3] - The new retail and new medical sectors are entering a new phase of expansion, enhancing the company's ability to reach end consumers [4] - The company's profitability is expected to improve due to the contribution from Pre-REITs and innovative strategies, despite some temporary increases in expenses [5] - The operating quality has seen a slight decline, but there are positive trends anticipated for improvement [6] Summary by Sections Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 151.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.51 billion yuan, up 15.33% [1] - In Q1 2025, total revenue reached 42.02 billion yuan, a 3.82% increase year-on-year, with net profit soaring by 80.38% to 970 million yuan [1] Growth Potential - The REITs issuance has successfully launched, raising 1.158 billion yuan, which is expected to accelerate the company's intelligent warehousing upgrades and high-margin business expansion [2] - The CSO business generated sales of 19.27 billion yuan, with a 19.59% growth in pharmaceutical CSO sales after adjusting for high base effects [3] Profitability - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 7.80%, a slight decrease of 0.27 percentage points, while Q1 2025 saw a gross margin of 7.33%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points [5] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 1.65%, up approximately 0.21 percentage points, with Q1 2025 showing a significant increase to 2.31%, up 0.98 percentage points [5] Operating Quality - The net cash flow from operating activities in 2024 was 3.083 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.07% year-on-year, primarily due to increased procurement payments [6] - The company anticipates improvements in operating cash flow due to changes in customer and channel structures [6] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1632.94 billion yuan, 1764.63 billion yuan, and 1900.79 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 7.56%, 8.06%, and 7.72% [12] - Expected net profits for the same period are 2.84 billion yuan, 3.18 billion yuan, and 3.54 billion yuan, with growth rates of 13.13%, 12.08%, and 11.21% [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The risks of trust, AMC, and commercial leasing licenses held by financial holding platforms are relatively high. The risks at the trust end may mainly come from the capital pool business. Although most trust risks are controllable, tail risks cannot be excluded [1]. - The financial license situation of financial holding platforms determines their competitiveness, profitability, and risks. Bank, securities, insurance, and financial leasing institutions are strictly regulated with controllable risks, while trust, AMC, and commercial leasing industries are more risky [2]. - The capital pool business of trusts is caused by factors such as arbitrage space from maturity mismatch, internal operational convenience, market demand, and covering up defaulted assets. The scale of the capital pool business can be observed from aspects like the non - performing ratio of inherent assets, the scale of financing products in actively managed trusts, and regulatory penalty tickets [3]. - As of the end of April 2025, the outstanding trust ABS - type assets in the bond market totaled 403.61 billion yuan. Trust ABS products generally have low default risks, but caution is needed when the credit enhancement is provided by trust institutions. The risks of most trusts are controllable, but tail risks exist [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Focus on the Holding License Situation of Financial Holding Groups - Financial holding platforms obtain investment income by holding/ controlling financial institutions. The quantity, type, quality, and control status of financial licenses directly affect their competitiveness, profitability, and risks [13]. - The report sorted out 9 types of financial licenses held by 23 central enterprise financial holding platforms and 38 local financial holding platforms. Bank, securities, insurance, and financial leasing institutions are strictly regulated, with standardized operations and controllable risks. In contrast, trust, AMC, and commercial leasing licenses are more risky [2][13]. - The reasons for the high risks of trust, AMC, and commercial leasing industries include lower regulatory standardization, the risk of occupying parent - company funds, and being in an industry trough due to macro - economic environment, regulatory policies, and market competition [2][14]. 3.2 Risks at the Trust End May Mainly Come from the Capital Pool Business - Some trust companies with default risks, such as Sichuan Trust and Anxin Trust, were involved in illegal operations of capital pool business, leading to liquidity and default risks [19]. - The capital pool business is characterized by "rolling issuance, collective operation, maturity mismatch, and separate pricing", which may cause the blurring of the boundary between trust property and company assets and the risk of fund misappropriation. It is caused by maturity mismatch arbitrage, internal operational convenience, market demand, and covering up defaulted assets [19]. - In principle, trust companies do not have the obligation to provide rigid payment for trust products. However, due to the illegal nature of the capital pool business, trust companies usually need to bear the payment obligation, mainly through restructuring and discounted payment [3]. - The scale of the capital pool business is difficult to observe directly from financial statements. It can be roughly inferred from the non - performing ratio of inherent assets (the higher the ratio, the larger the possible scale of the capital pool business), the scale of financing products in actively managed trusts (the higher the scale and proportion, the higher the risk), and regulatory penalty tickets [3][21][24]. 3.3 Risks of Trust - Related Standard Bonds Are Controllable - As of the end of April 2025, the outstanding trust ABS - type assets in the bond market totaled 403.61 billion yuan, with several trusts having a scale of over 30 billion yuan [30]. - Trust ABS products have independent underlying assets and are isolated from other trust company assets. Some products also have external credit enhancement measures, so they generally have low default risks. However, caution is needed when the credit enhancement is provided by trust institutions [30]. - The bond - issuing parent companies of trusts are mainly financial holding platforms, banks, and investment holding groups, with a total outstanding bond scale of 8.93 trillion yuan. After excluding several large state - owned banks, the outstanding balance is 1.43 trillion yuan. Most trust risks are controllable, but tail risks exist. Among them, the bond credit spread of Wukuang Capital (Wukuang Trust) widened significantly, but there is no substantial credit risk [33][34].

Monetary Policy Tools - The central bank has implemented a 50 basis points (BP) reserve requirement ratio cut, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market[3] - A 10 BP interest rate cut on the 7-day reverse repurchase rate has been announced, with expectations of an additional 20 BP cut within the year[5] - Structural monetary policy rates have been reduced by 25 BP, expanding the relending quota by 300 billion yuan for technology innovation and technical transformation[8] Economic Context and Goals - The primary goal of the central bank has shifted from international balance and financial stability to stabilizing growth and promoting reasonable price recovery due to increased external uncertainties[2] - The monetary policy is expected to maintain a loose tone throughout 2025, with another anticipated 50 BP reserve requirement cut and a 20 BP interest rate cut[14] Market Support Measures - The central bank has optimized two capital market support tools, merging a 500 billion yuan swap facility and a 300 billion yuan stock repurchase loan, totaling 800 billion yuan[10] - The establishment of a risk-sharing tool for technology innovation bonds aims to lower financing thresholds for tech enterprises, addressing challenges related to long R&D cycles and insufficient collateral[13] Financial Stability and Liquidity - The reserve requirement cut aims to alleviate liquidity pressure from concentrated government bond supply and support economic stability and employment[4] - The central bank's actions are designed to enhance the efficiency of policy transmission and support the recovery of effective demand in the economy[4]

证券研究报告 | 季度行业策略报告 | 房地产 重申估值筑底凸显配置价值 ——行业点评报告 我们认为有少部分房企 2025 年盈利可能提前迎来改善，这类房企的特点在于 1）前期计提减值充分；2）项目聚焦核心 30 城，资产价格率先回暖；3）开发 业务收缩较快，非开发业务利润打底，稳住公司盈利基本盘。典型案例如华润置 地和新城控股。 投资要点 ❑ 维持 2025 年度策略投资思路 3 月 12 日我们外发报告《25Q2 地产投资策略：估值筑底凸显配置价值》中提到 "25Q2 是地产板块估值磨底阶段"—— 关于如何看待 Q2 利空因素，决定了地 产板块估值的下限问题。我们认为，当一方面跟踪到 5 月销售基本面淡季不淡， 而另一方面房企 2024 年体现出公司利润逐步筑底、利空出尽的时候，这意味着 地产板块的估值或达到了底部，具有反弹的潜力。 根据我们 2022 年的专题报告《鉴以往知未来之房地产周期底部特征研究》，复 盘历次周期地产板块股价和房价的表现，我们可以比较直观的看到，房企估值的 拐点受价格变化影响早于盈利改善，主要是由于房企利润结算受竣工影响有滞 后。资产价格的修复从房企开始取消降价销售策略就已经开始， ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of RMB internationalization in achieving "financial autonomy and controllability," especially in the context of escalating tariff disputes globally. The establishment of the CIPS system and the mBridge project are highlighted as key initiatives to enhance the ability to respond to financial sanctions [1][2][18]. RMB Internationalization Theme Evaluation - The RMB internationalization theme received a composite score of 62.86 based on seven dimensions, with high scores in future imagination space, trading congestion, and policy support [3][20]. - The evaluation criteria included market capitalization capacity, policy support intensity, industry coverage, valuation levels, trading congestion, performance realization capability, and future imagination space [20][24]. RMB Internationalization Concept Stock Pool - A stock pool consisting of 18 stocks was constructed based on cross-border trade, payment, and logistics, reflecting potential beneficiaries of RMB internationalization [3][23]. - The stock pool's performance was backtested from March 29, 2024, to May 5, 2025, showing an excess return of 35.64% compared to the Wind All A Index, with a notable excess return of 12.44% after April 8, 2025 [3][29]. RMB Internationalization Index - The RMB internationalization index was created based on the concept stock pool, using free float market capitalization for weighting, with a maximum weight of 10% for any single stock [26]. - The index demonstrated a growth of 47% from March 29, 2024, to May 5, 2025, outperforming the Wind All A Index by 35.64% [29].