证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 15 日 关税 2.0 对产业债主体影响几何？ 核心观点 本文使用海外营收占比和美元存款/货币资金两种指标，并结合公开信息大致推测对美 出口较多的行业的产业主体对美出口敞口。从宏观行业和微观主体两个角度看，我们 认为关税政策对产业债信用风险的影响可控。 ❑ 我国对美出口情况概览 美国虽为我国第一大出口国，但我国对美贸易依赖度正逐渐下降，自从 2018 年贸易战 1.0 发生 以来，我国对美出口金额占比由 20%降至当前的 13%。不过，2018 年贸易战 1.0 爆发后关税清 单内商品对美出口显著下降，此次"全覆盖关税"作用下对美出口后续走势可能与此前类似。将 各类中国出口美国商品的 HS 编码转化为所属申万行业，对美出口金额较高的行业依次是电子、 轻工制造、电力设备、纺织服装、基础化工和汽车，该六大行业合计占对美出口总额的 80%以 上。 ❑ 如何衡量产业债发行主体出口敞口？ 美国对华加征关税将抬升出口成本，削弱企业盈利能力，出口型行业信用风险也可能随之上升。 但是，对美出口金额较高的行业产业债余额仅占全部 ...

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 15 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 04 月 15 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/何家恺/姬新悦】中大力德（002896）公司深度：精密减速器厚积薄发，卡位人形机器 人优质赛道——20250413 大势：4 月 14 日上证指数上涨 0.76%，沪深 300 上涨 0.23%，科创 50 上涨 0.25%，中证 1000 上涨 1.3%，创业板 指上涨 0.34%，恒生指数上涨 2.4%。 行业：4 月 14 日表现最好的行业分别是纺织服饰（+2.56%)、煤炭（+2.5%)、有色金属（+2.46%)、商贸零售（+2.37%)、 社会服务（+2.09%)，表现最差的行业分别是家用电器（-0.6%)、食品饮料（-0.36%)、房地产（+0.2%)、建筑材料 （+0.28%)、国防军工（+0.32%)。 资金：4 月 14 日全 A 总成交额为 13127 亿元，南下资金净流入 57.80 亿港元。 浙商早 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the continuous upward development of the domestic innovative drug industry, with the company solidifying its leading position in clinical CRO and expecting sustained long-term performance growth due to international breakthroughs [1][11] - The company's 2024 revenue was reported at 6.603 billion RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 10.58%, primarily due to the impact of specific vaccine project bases and the cancellation of some domestic innovative drug clinical operation orders in H2 2024 [1][12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 405 million RMB, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 79.99% [12] Summary by Sections Business Performance - Clinical trial technical service revenue for 2024 was 3.178 billion RMB, down 23.75% year-over-year, mainly due to the impact of specific vaccine projects and a decline in new order amounts for domestic innovative drug clinical operations [2] - Revenue from clinical trial-related and laboratory services was 3.296 billion RMB, showing a year-over-year increase of 5.61%, driven by strong demand and efficiency improvements [3] Profitability - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 33.95%, a decrease of 4.63 percentage points year-over-year, with clinical trial technical services gross margin at 29.56%, down 8.65 percentage points [4] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in profitability, with expectations for gross margins to return to higher levels as order execution stabilizes [4] Order and Contract Insights - The company reported a net new contract amount of 8.42 billion RMB for 2024, a year-over-year increase of 7.3%, with a total backlog of contracts amounting to 15.78 billion RMB, up 12.1% year-over-year [11] - The overseas clinical operation business continues to grow rapidly, particularly in North America, with expectations for more high-quality MRCT orders [11] Financial Forecast - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 to 1.18, 1.40, and 1.70 RMB respectively, with a projected PE ratio of 38 times for 2025 [12]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 种植业 投资要点 北大荒公告 2024 年业绩：24 年公司实现营收 53.39 亿元，同比+5.83%，归母净利润 10.87 亿元，同比+2.21%。单四季度公司实现营收 9.81 亿元，同比-7.89%，归母净利 润-2.60 亿元，亏损同比扩大 0.30 亿元。 ❑ 耕地发包业务延续增长，增收措施成效显著 1）耕地发包主业：公司积极采取机动地竞价、超规模阶梯收费等增收措施，实 现土地承包费收入稳健增长，24 年该业务营收 37.32 亿元，同比+8.7%。2）农产 品销售：24 年农产品销售实现营收 1.80 亿元，同比+11.60%，主要系粮食生产能 力与供给质量稳步提升。3）农资销售： 24 年农资业务实现营收 11.03 亿元，同 比-8.28%，主要系农资价格同比下滑。4）其他：公司工业、经贸业务均处于长 期停业状态，工业企业收入以出租资产为主，24 年实现营收 142 万元，同比+ 45 万元；经贸企业以清理应收和销售原有存货为主，24 年实现营收 4186 万元，同 比+ 4141 万元；房地产业务 24 年实现营收 126 万元，同比+5532 万元。 ❑ ...

京北方(002987) 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 14 日 AI 驱动收入增长，现金流大幅改善 ——京北方 2024 年报点评 投资要点 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 软件开发 ❑ 营收稳健增长，经营性现金流高增 2024 年实现营业收入 46.36 亿元，同比增长 9.29%；归母净利润 3.12 亿元，同比 下滑 10.36%。公司现金流质量显著提升，经营性现金流净额同比增长 99.25%至 2.61 亿元。 2024 年，归母净利率为 6.72%，同比下滑 1.p47ct，主要系核心业务毛利率下滑以 及费用刚性。综合毛利率 22.40%，同比小幅下降 0.92pct，销售/管理/研发费用率 为 1.84%/3.70%/9.21%，同比分别+0.08pct/+0.38pct/-0.07pct。 ❑ 基石业务稳健，AI 相关业务高速增长 软件及 IT 解决方案实现收入 30.07 亿元，是公司发展基石，其中金融科技解决方 案产品线收入 13.00 亿元，同比增长 9.41%。人工智能及大数据创新产品线收入 0.80 亿元，同比增长 65.29%，成为增长新引擎。业务数字化运营条线收入 16.29 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [5][14]. Core Views - Chow Tai Fook is a leading brand in the gold and jewelry industry, with strong brand power, product strength, and channel capabilities. The company's brand transformation strategy aims to enhance store efficiency and improve profit margins through fixed-price products, which is expected to drive performance beyond expectations. A high dividend yield of 6%-7% is anticipated for the fiscal year 2026 [1][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Overperformance Logic - Chow Tai Fook demonstrates strong advantages in brand influence and product design iteration. The company is expected to achieve same-store sales growth beyond expectations starting from fiscal year 2024, despite market concerns about significant declines in same-store sales due to high gold prices and intensified competition [2][3]. 2. Brand and Product Upgrades - The company is actively pursuing brand transformation, including: 1. Brand image upgrades with new concept stores launched in Hong Kong and other cities, achieving higher store efficiency than average [3]. 2. Product structure upgrades with the introduction of unique series like "Chuanfu" and "Forbidden City," leading to a significant increase in sales of fixed-price gold products [4]. 3. Enhanced store profitability through optimized retail networks and clear performance indicators [3][4]. 3. Profitability Improvement - The proportion of high-margin fixed-price gold products is increasing, contributing to an upward trend in gross margins. The sales performance of new product lines has been impressive, with the "Chuanfu" series generating over HK$24 billion in retail value since its launch [4][10]. 4. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of HK$901 billion, HK$907 billion, and HK$955 billion for fiscal years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of HK$56 billion, HK$76 billion, and HK$83 billion. The net profit margin is expected to improve from 6.2% to 8.4% in fiscal year 2026 [14][17]. 5. Target Price and Valuation - Given the rapid growth of high-margin products and a high dividend payout ratio, the target market capitalization for fiscal year 2026 is set at HK$1,139 billion, based on a 15x valuation [15].

证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 农林牧渔 大豆压榨上调，玉米出口上调 ——4 月 USDA 供需报告分析 投资要点 ❑ 持续上调全球玉米产量，库销比下调支撑价格 本月 USDA 供需报告中，对 2024/25 年度全球（除中国外）玉米的预计产量上调 了 93 万吨，至 9.2 亿吨，同比上一年度减少 2.2%。其中，其中巴西，阿根廷未 发生变化，欧盟调增 131 万吨，肯尼亚调减 20 万吨。贸易方面，美国玉米出口量 上调 300 万吨至 6500 万吨，这一调整高于市场预期，主要是受益于价格优势，尤 其是在巴西和乌克兰供应受限的背景下，美国玉米出口前景改善。然而，报告也 指出，未来几个月美国玉米出口需保持较高水平才能实现目标，这为市场带来一 定不确定性。最终，全球（除中国外）2024/25 年度玉米结转期末库存下调 128 万 吨至 8647 万吨，同比减少 16.1%；库销比下调 0.2pct 至 9.3%。 ❑ G3 主产区产量未做调整，压榨量同时上调 本月 USDA 供需报告中，2024/25 年度全球（除中国外）新季大豆产量下调 18 万 吨，至 4.0 亿吨，同比上一年度增加 6.5%。本次报告维 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company is a leader in automotive water pumps, with IDC liquid cooling and humanoid robot businesses expected to drive a second growth curve, leveraging technology reuse and customer collaboration to potentially exceed performance expectations [1] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 56 billion, 68 billion, and 80 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 19%, 21%, and 18% respectively, resulting in a CAGR of 19% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 4.4 billion, 5.4 billion, and 6.5 billion RMB for the same period, with growth rates of 34%, 21%, and 22%, leading to a CAGR of 25% [5] - The corresponding P/E ratios are expected to be 19X, 16X, and 13X [5] Market Position and Comparisons - The average P/E ratio for comparable companies such as Yinlun, Shuguang, and Shenling is 35X for 2026E, while the company's current P/E is only 16X, indicating significant upside potential [3] - The company has a 25% market share in the domestic automotive water pump market and a 20% share in the turbocharger casing market, establishing it as a leader in these segments [10] Growth Catalysts - Future catalysts include orders for liquid cooling pumps, robot orders, and quarterly earnings growth [4] - The liquid cooling server market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 46.8% from 2024 to 2029, with the company positioned to capture a share of this emerging market [10] - The company has entered the humanoid robot sector, with potential for growth similar to that of a comparable company, Sanhua Intelligent Control [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in performance from 2025 onwards, following a challenging 2024 due to high R&D expenses and other costs [1][4] - The company's products are well-positioned in the satellite internet market, with a focus on new customer acquisition and project development [1][2] - The company has made substantial investments in R&D, which is expected to solidify its industry position and enhance its product offerings [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 303.38 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.04%, but net profit decreased by 75.37% to 17.85 million yuan [1][6] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 440.52 million yuan, 651.86 million yuan, and 910.85 million yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 108.84 million yuan, 219.69 million yuan, and 362.18 million yuan [4][6] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 76.23%, with expectations for improvement in subsequent years [6] Product Development - The company has a strong focus on product development, with 20 new product types defined in 2024, including five applicable to satellite communication systems [3] - The revenue from the RF transceiver and high-precision ADC/DAC chip segment was approximately 101 million yuan, showing a 2% increase year-on-year [2] - The power management chip segment achieved revenue of 123 million yuan, reflecting a 14.6% year-on-year growth [2]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 2）企业端，3 月企（事）业单位贷款增加 28400 亿元，同比多增 5000 亿元，其 中，短期贷款增加 14400 亿元，同比多增 4600 亿元，是核心支撑项，中长期贷 款增加 15800 亿元，同比少增 200 亿元，降幅显著收窄，票据融资减少 1986 亿 元，同比少减 514 亿元。 对于后续货币政策，二季度财政支出节奏加快，预计存在降准落地的"窗口期"。此 外若中美博弈升级，央行或将首要目标从国际收支与金融稳定切换至稳增长和促进物 价合理回升，届时有望通过降准降息对冲外部冲击，维持流动性宽松以支持内需。全 年看，预计 2025 年货币政策维持宽松基调，与财政政策、产业政策形成政策合力， 预计全年降准幅度约 100BP，降息约 30BP。 ❑ 3 月信贷新增 3.64 万亿元，企业贷款是核心拉动 3 月人民币贷款新增 36400 亿元（高于市场预期和我们的预期），同比多增 5500 亿元，存量同比增速 7.4%，前值 7.3%。信贷结构中，居民、企业、非银贷款均 同比多增，其中企业贷款是核心拉动项。 短期贷款方面，3 月企业短期贷款同比多增，增幅为 2 ...