Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that risk assets are expected to maintain relative advantages, with the profitability factor likely to recover [2][4][10] - The asset allocation model is an improved version of the Black-Litterman (BL) model, which combines market consensus with active views to optimize asset allocation and enhance the Sharpe ratio [3][5] - The model predicts that in the third quarter of 2025, the allocation ratio for domestic stocks will continue to increase while the bond allocation ratio will remain relatively high [10][11] Group 2 - In the A-share market, the profitability factor is expected to recover, and the advantage of small-cap stocks is likely to continue [2][17] - As of June 30, 2025, the market style performance for the second quarter showed strong results for small-cap and low-valuation factors, with weak profitability and weak reversal [13][16] - The report recommends focusing on indices such as the ChiNext Index, CSI A500, and CSI 2000, which exhibit high profitability and small-cap attributes [20][21]

Core Insights - The report highlights the sustained high demand for domestic computing power driven by ongoing U.S. restrictions on advanced chip imports, accelerating the domestic substitution process [3][7] - Domestic cloud service providers are increasing capital expenditures, gradually releasing industrial demand, while the iteration of domestic AI large models and applications is further boosting computing power needs [3][7] Industry Performance - The report provides a snapshot of market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3454.79, down 0.09%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10412.63, down 0.61% [4] - The performance of various sectors is noted, with steel up 3.37% and electronics down 2.01% [5] Key Focus Areas - The domestic computing power market is experiencing a boom, with Huawei's Ascend 910C servers being deployed in significant quantities, indicating a new phase in domestic computing commercialization [7] - The Ascend 910C chip boasts a single-chip computing power of 320 TFLOPS (FP16), designed for efficiency and low power consumption, suitable for AI tasks [7] - Major domestic internet companies are ramping up investments in AI infrastructure, with Alibaba planning to invest 380 billion RMB over three years, and Tencent's capital expenditure reaching 275 billion RMB in Q1 2025, up 91% year-on-year [8] Demand Drivers - The report notes that application-side inference is expected to drive demand growth, with significant increases in token usage reported by major companies like Alphabet and ByteDance [9] - The domestic supply side, including chips and supernode deployments, has achieved technological breakthroughs, which will lead to increased demand for computing power as industry applications evolve [9]

通信 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 7 月 2 日 强于大市 国产算力高景气持续 AI 系列跟踪专题报告 美国对先进芯片进口限制持续，促使国产算力替代进程加快；国内云厂商持 续提升相关资本开支并逐步释放产业需求；同时，国内 AI 大模型及应用迭代 推动算力需求提升。持续看好国产算力景气度。 投资建议 支撑评级的要点 ◼ 建议优先关注国内 AI 算力网络基础设施建设及应用方向，包括运营商： 中国移动、中国电信、中国联通；服务器及交换机设备商：中兴通讯、紫 光股份、浪潮信息、锐捷网络、盛科通信；光模块及光器件：新易盛、中 际旭创、源杰科技、华工科技、光迅科技、仕佳光子、华丰科技。 评级面临的主要风险 ◼ 国内外政策不确定性风险；市场需求不及预期风险；行业供给过剩竞争环 境恶化风险；AI 发展不及预期风险。 相关研究报告 《5G-A 和 AI 深度融合推动信息基建发展》 20250625 《云厂商加码资本开支，算力产业链迎发展机 遇》20250523 《全球算力需求稳中有进》20250518 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 通信 证券分析师：吕然 (8610)66229185 r ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 7 月 2 日 中银晨会聚焦-20250702 资料来源：万得，中银证券 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 产品组 证券分析师：王军 ■重点关注 【策略研究】2025 年中期策略报告*王君 徐沛东 郭晓希 徐亚 高天然。在科 技重估、关税冲击、政策储备等多维度下，怎么配 A 股才能成功突围？ 【宏观经济】一季度对外经济部门体检报告*管涛 刘立品 。2025 年一季度， 我国国际收支延续经常项目顺差、资本项目逆差的自主平衡格局，交易引起 的外汇储备资产减少但外汇储备余额增加，民间部门首次转为对外净资产。 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3457.75 | 0.39 | | 深证成指 | 10476.29 | 0.11 | | 沪深 300 | 3942.76 | 0.17 | 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综合 | 2.60 | 计算机 | (1.18) | ...

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Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - New home transaction area increased on a month-on-month basis but decreased year-on-year, with a significant drop in the year-on-year rate of decline [1] - The inventory of new homes and the de-stocking cycle both decreased on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis [1] - The land market saw both volume and price increases, with a notable rise in the premium rate [1] - Domestic bond issuance by real estate companies decreased significantly, indicating tighter financing conditions [1] - The absolute return of the real estate sector increased, while the relative return compared to the CSI 300 also improved [1] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - New home transaction area for 40 cities was 3.366 million square meters, up 37.0% month-on-month but down 25.7% year-on-year [1][18] - Second-hand home transaction area decreased by 2.7% month-on-month but saw a smaller year-on-year decline of 0.9% [1][18] - New home inventory area for 12 cities was 87.42 million square meters, down 0.3% month-on-month and down 16.3% year-on-year [1][45] 2. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area for 100 cities was 15.761 million square meters, up 47.9% month-on-month and up 25.6% year-on-year [1][14] - Total land transaction price reached 57.35 billion yuan, up 186.7% month-on-month and up 155.3% year-on-year [1][14] - The average floor price of land was 3,639 yuan per square meter, up 93.9% month-on-month and up 103.2% year-on-year [1][14] 3. Industry Policy Review - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to stabilize the real estate market through various supportive measures [1][6] 4. Sector Performance Review - The absolute return of the real estate sector was 3.1%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points from the previous week [1][15] - The sector's price-to-earnings ratio (PE) was 23.85X, up 0.68X from the previous week [1][15] 5. Company Announcements - The report includes a summary of key company announcements within the real estate sector for the week [1][15] 6. Bond Issuance Situation - The total bond issuance in the real estate sector was 4.79 billion yuan, down 43.0% month-on-month and down 37.1% year-on-year [1][15]

Investment Rating - The report rates the banking sector as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Insights - The banking sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 13.49%, ranking second among all industries, with a focus on the investment value of bank stocks [1][12] - The report suggests paying attention to specific banks such as China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank [1] Summary by Sections Banking Sector and Stock Performance - The banking index increased by 0.67% this week, while the Wind All A index rose by 3.56%, indicating that the banking sector underperformed by 2.69 percentage points [12] - Among the 42 A-share banks, 22 saw an increase in stock prices this week [2] - State-owned banks had an average increase of 0.75% with a P/B ratio of 0.71X, while joint-stock banks rose by 1.09% with a P/B of 0.60X [15] - The average increase for city commercial banks was 0.43% with a P/B of 0.71X, while rural commercial banks saw a decline of 1.16% with a P/B of 0.66X [15] Funding Price Situation - The central bank conducted a significant reverse repo operation, injecting 10672 billion into the market this week [3][27] - The overnight SHIBOR rate remained stable at 1.37%, while the 7-day SHIBOR rate increased by 14 basis points to 1.67% [30] - The average rates for overnight and 7-day repo transactions were 1.46% and 1.92%, respectively, with the latter rising by 33 basis points [30] Bond Market Situation - Total financing in the bond market reached 20769.5 billion, with net financing down by 1078.6 billion compared to last week [42] - Local government bonds issuance increased to 6416.4 billion, while national bonds decreased significantly by 3197.8 billion [42] - The yield on 1-year national bonds was 1.35%, down by 1 basis point, while the 10-year yield rose to 1.65%, up by 1 basis point [44] Interbank Certificate of Deposit Market Review - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit was 7264 billion, a decrease of 3741 billion from the previous week [53] - The weighted average issuance rate was 1.64%, down by 1 basis point [53]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 点评报告 2025 年 7 月 1 日 一季度对外经济部门体检 报告 经常项目顺差扩大，内资外流增加，民间对外净 头寸首次转正 2025 年一季度，我国国际收支延续经常项目顺差、资本项目逆差的自主平衡 格局，交易引起的外汇储备资产减少但外汇储备余额增加，民间部门首次转 为对外净资产。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师: 管涛 (8610)66229136 tao.guan@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300520100001 证券分析师: 刘立品 (8610)66229236 lipin.liu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521080001 经常项目顺差同比扩大，占 GDP 比重继续处于国际认可的合理范围以 内。特朗普关税政策冲击下，我国外贸展现出较强韧性，货物贸易顺差 继续处于历史高位。 资本项目（含净误差与遗漏）逆差连续第四个季度扩大，线上资本项目 逆差处于历史次高，远大于上年同期逆差，主要是因为内资外流增加， 其中对外债务类和股权类投资净流出同比齐增，分别反映了中美 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The easing of tensions in the Middle East has led to a decline in oil tanker rates, with the VLCC market experiencing a significant price drop of 14.31% compared to June 19, with current rates at WS59.88 [3][12] - In the shipping sector, the demand for European routes has improved, resulting in a 10.6% increase in spot market booking prices, while the US routes have seen a decline of 7.0% and 11.9% for the West and East coasts, respectively [3][14] - During the summer travel season, Hainan Airlines plans to operate nearly 2,500 flights daily, with domestic ticket bookings reaching 17.9 million, a 5% increase year-on-year [3][15] - The newly unveiled Zhuque eVTOL has a range of 600 kilometers, and from January to May, national railway freight volume increased by 3.1% year-on-year, totaling 1.641 billion tons [3][22] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - The Middle East situation has calmed, leading to a reduction in oil tanker rates and a return to supply-demand fundamentals [12] - Hainan Airlines is set to launch 75 new domestic and international routes during the summer travel season, with a daily flight plan of nearly 2,500 [15] - The Zhuque eVTOL was showcased, achieving a range of 600 kilometers, while railway freight volume showed a year-on-year increase [22] 2. High-Frequency Data Tracking - Air logistics: The overall trend for routes to the Asia-Pacific remains stable, with air freight prices showing a decline [25] - Shipping ports: The domestic container shipping price index has decreased, while dry bulk freight rates have also fallen [43] - Express logistics: In May 2025, express delivery volume increased by 17.20% year-on-year, with revenue rising by 8.20% [54] - Air travel: The average daily international flights in the last week of June 2025 increased by 17.51% year-on-year [3] - Road and rail: The number of freight trucks on highways increased by 0.88% week-on-week [3] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [4] - Attention to low-altitude economy investment opportunities, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - Investment opportunities in the road and rail sector, recommending Sichuan Chengyu, Gansu Expressway, and others [4] - Interest in cruise and ferry investment opportunities, recommending Bohai Ferry and Haixia Co [4] - E-commerce and express delivery investment opportunities, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [4] - Investment opportunities in the aviation sector, recommending China National Aviation, Southern Airlines, and others [4]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that under the current weak replenishment cycle, A-shares are expected to outperform other asset classes, with a recommendation to increase the allocation to A-shares while reducing commodity assets [2][24][25] - The report predicts a weak recovery in A-share earnings, with a projected growth rate of 0-5% for the second half of 2025, and a valuation contribution of 0-7%, leading to an expected median increase of 7% in A-shares [39][40] - The report identifies small-cap stocks, strong reversals, high valuations, and high profitability as the dominant market styles for the second half of 2025, with a particular focus on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors [46][47][48] Group 2 - The technology sector is highlighted as a high-probability choice for index breakout, supported by stable capital market commitments and sufficient policy reserves [54] - The report outlines two scenarios for industry allocation: one under a fluctuating market and another under a potential upward breakout, indicating the need for strategic planning [54] - The report suggests that the AI and humanoid robotics industries are expected to experience significant growth, with a focus on high-growth and consumption styles in the top ten recommended industries for the second half of 2025 [24][39]