Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on rebar 2605 are all "shock - biased strong", with the core logic being the fermentation of optimistic sentiment and the stable shock of steel prices [2] - Due to the approaching major conference, optimistic expectations are fermenting, and the ferrous metals are rising collectively. The supply and demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, with supply slightly contracting but the sustainability of short - process steel mill production cuts in doubt. Demand is also weakly stable, with high - frequency indicators stabilizing at a low level in recent years, and is expected to decline seasonally. Under the dual - weak supply - demand situation, the steel price is supported by market sentiment, and it will run with a strong - bias shock in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is "shock", the medium - term view is "shock", and the intraday view is "shock - biased strong". The overall view reference is "shock - biased strong", and the core logic is the fermentation of optimistic sentiment and the stable shock of steel prices [2] Market Driving Logic - With a major conference approaching, optimistic expectations are fermenting, leading to a collective rise in ferrous metals. The supply and demand of rebar is weakly stable, with supply slightly contracting but the sustainability of short - process steel mill production cuts uncertain. Demand is also weakly stable, with high - frequency indicators stabilizing at a low level in recent years and expected to decline seasonally. Market sentiment supports the steel price, and it will run with a strong - bias shock in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand situation [3]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-12-02 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 供需预期改善，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 核心逻辑：近期国内甲醇期货供需预期改善，驱动甲醇期价反弹主要有四方面原因：其一，伊朗限 气政策落地。11 月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Treasury bond futures is mainly oscillatory consolidation. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, while the medium - to - long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy still exists. The macro data shows certain resilience but is still weak, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand. Future monetary policy is expected to be loose, which gives Treasury bond futures strong resilience. However, the difficulty of achieving the annual growth target is low, so there is not much need for a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak. The reference view is oscillatory consolidation, with the core logic being that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, while the medium - to - long - term expectation of a loose policy still exists [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated yesterday. The November manufacturing PMI released by the statistics bureau was 49.2%, an improvement from last month's 49.0% but still below the boom - bust line. The macro data shows strong resilience but is still weak, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand. Future monetary policy is expected to be loose, which gives Treasury bond futures strong resilience. The difficulty of achieving the annual growth target is low, so there is not much need for a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 2 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆期价受中国采购量预期分歧的影响徘徊不前，1200 万吨的美豆采购目标期限是否会 延期至春节前成为市场关注的焦点，叠加南美干旱影响暂时有限，市场情绪整体降温。12 月进口大 豆到港减量支撑油厂挺价，但终端受高库存制约追涨乏力，供需博弈下盘面维持震荡反复。短期需关 注中国实际采购节奏及南美天气变数，豆粕期价震荡偏弱运行。 期货研究报告 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：棕油窄幅盘整资金离场。BMD 毛棕油出口疲软 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view for the financial futures stock index sector is that the short - term trend of stock indices is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, with a mid - term view of oscillation and an overall reference view of range - bound oscillation [1][5]. - The core logic is that although the 11 - month manufacturing PMI is still below the boom - bust line, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand, the expectation of policy benefits is strong, especially looking forward to the incremental policy benefits from the December Central Economic Work Conference. Overseas, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has risen, the risk of the AI asset investment bubble has decreased, and market risk - aversion sentiment has cooled. The support for stock indices is strong due to the unchanged expectation of policy benefits and the trend of long - term funds entering the market [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the mid - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is slightly stronger, and the overall view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is the fermentation of policy benefit expectations versus the rising willingness of funds to take profits [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for IF, IH, IC, and IM is slightly stronger, the mid - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is that the stock indices rebounded oscillatingly yesterday. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1889.4 billion yuan, an increase of 291.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month but still below the boom - bust line, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand. The expectation of policy benefits is strong, and the support for stock indices is strong [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - **Rubber**: On Monday, the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The intraday price center shifted slightly down to around 15,250 yuan/ton, closing down 1.07% at 15,250 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount narrowed to 10 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating steadily, and closing slightly higher. The price reached a maximum of 2,142 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,103 yuan/ton, closing up 0.47% at 2,136 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount widened to 96 yuan/ton. As the methanol supply - demand outlook improves, the methanol futures price is expected to have a valuation repair market [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating steadily, and closing slightly higher. The price reached a maximum of 458.4 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 449.5 yuan/barrel, closing up 1.06% at 455.7 yuan/barrel. The supply surplus competes with the seasonal demand recovery, and combined with the weakening of macro - sentiment, the Russia - Ukraine conflict may end, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil weakens [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Rubber** - As of November 23, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 468,900 tons, an increase of 16,300 tons or 3.60% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 71,900 tons, an increase of 7.97%; the general trade inventory was 397,000 tons, an increase of 2.84%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of Qingdao natural rubber increased by 8.20 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.20 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.03 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.63 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points month - on - month and 10.40 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 1.56 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased this week. Some sample enterprises of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires had maintenance during the cycle, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. The main reasons for maintenance were insufficient overall orders and slow shipment, and some sample enterprises had equipment transformation, affecting the overall production capacity release. It is expected that in the next cycle, as the production scheduling of maintenance enterprises gradually recovers, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will show a restorative increase. However, the overall demand growth space is limited, and enterprises will continue to control production, which will limit the increase in capacity utilization rate [9]. - In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and 3%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative automobile production and sales reached 27.692 million and 27.687 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.2% and 12.4%. The automobile market continued to develop well, and the monthly production and sales reached a record high for the same period [10]. - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. This is the seventh consecutive month of year - on - year positive growth since April this year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales reached 916,000 vehicles. It is certain that the annual sales will exceed one million, and it may even reach 1.1 million [10]. - **Methanol** - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 83.77%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.17%, a month - on - month increase of 1.06%, and a slight increase of 4.08% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0142 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,700 tons, and a significant increase of 134,000 tons compared with 1.8802 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.28%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.05%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 5.31%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.96%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 66.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.89%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.91%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. As of the week of November 21, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.67%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.85 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.78%. As of November 21, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was 316 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week recovery of 7 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month rebound of 537 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.2439 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,900 tons, and a significant increase of 184,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of November 27, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 373,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,300 tons, and a slight increase of 4,500 tons compared with 369,200 tons in the same period last year [12]. - **Crude Oil** - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 419, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a decrease of 60 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of November 21, 2025, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.814 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 321,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 426.9 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 2.774 million barrels and a significant decrease of 1.519 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, USA reached 21.753 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 68,000 barrels; the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 411 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 498,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 92.3%, a week - on - week increase of 2.3 percentage points, a month - on - month recovery of 5.7 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.8 percentage points [13]. - As of October 14, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 60,991 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 13,318 contracts and a significant decrease of 36,857 contracts or 37.67% compared with the average in September of 97,848 contracts. On the other hand, as of November 25, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 125,587 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 52,240 contracts and a significant increase of 6,176 contracts or 5.17% compared with the average in October of 119,411 contracts [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Futures Main Contract | Change | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,000 yuan/ton | - 160 yuan/ton | 15,250 yuan/ton | + 200 yuan/ton | - 250 yuan/ton | + 160 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,125 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | 2,136 yuan/ton | + 5 yuan/ton | - 11 yuan/ton | + 1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 419.3 yuan/barrel | + 1.8 yuan/barrel | 455.7 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | - 36.5 yuan/barrel | - 2.0 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - **Rubber**: Rubber basis, rubber 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][19][23][25][27] - **Methanol**: Methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][31][33][35][37] - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, Brent crude oil net position holding change [41][43][45][47][49][52]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - On December 1, 2025, the stock indices oscillated and rebounded. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1889.4 billion yuan, an increase of 291.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month but still below the boom - bust line, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand and strong expectations for policy support. The central economic work conference in December is expected to bring incremental policy benefits. Overseas, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, and the risk of AI asset investment bubble has cooled, reducing market risk - aversion sentiment. In general, the expectations of policy benefits and the trend of long - term capital inflows remain unchanged, providing strong support for the stock indices. It is expected that the stock indices will oscillate strongly in the short term [4]. - For options, considering the medium - to long - term upward trend of the stock indices, a bull spread or ratio spread strategy with a mild bullish view can be adopted [4]. Group 3: Summary of "1 Option Indicators" - On December 1, 2025, 50ETF rose 0.77% to 3.137; 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 1.12% to 4.687; 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.05% to 4.833; the CSI 300 Index rose 1.10% to 4576.49; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.72% to 7386.68; 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.94% to 7.202; 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.98% to 2.874; the ChiNext ETF rose 1.25% to 3.073; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 1.42% to 3.418; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.81% to 2993.68; the STAR 50ETF rose 0.79% to 1.40; the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 0.74% to 1.36 [6]. - The PCR values of various options' trading volume and open interest on December 1, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are presented in detail, including 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 Index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [7]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in December 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are provided, such as 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 Index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [8][9]. Group 4: Summary of "2 Related Charts" - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Charts include the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [10][12][14][16][18]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Charts cover the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [20][22][24][26][30]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Charts involve the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [33][35][37]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Charts include the CSI 300 Index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [38][40][42][44][48]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Charts cover the CSI 1000 Index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [51][54][56][58][60][62]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Charts involve the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [65][67][69][71][73][76]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Charts include the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [77][79][81][83][85][87]. - **ChiNext ETF Options**: Charts cover the ChiNext ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [90][92][94][96][98][100]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Charts involve the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [101][103][105][107][109][111]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Charts include the SSE 50 Index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [114][116][118][120][122][124]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Charts cover the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [127][129][130][134]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Charts involve the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [135][137].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For coke, as of the week ending November 28, the total daily coke output of all - sample coking plants and steel mills was 110,080 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,190 tons. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 234,680 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons. The steel mill profitability rate dropped 2.6 percentage points to 35.06%, with widespread losses. Coke inventory increased overall this week. With uncertainties in coking coal supply in December, there is resistance to further decline in coke futures, and the main contract rebounded at the lower edge of the trading range [6][34]. - For coking coal, the demand side has no obvious differences, and the supply side is the core factor guiding the market. The National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on energy supply during the heating season has reduced market expectations of new anti - involution measures in the coal industry. Coking coal output was not affected by the inspection, and imports accelerated, weakening the supply - side logic. Since November, coking coal futures have been in a correction. However, considering the December Political Bureau economic meeting and the year - end production cut expectations, there is resistance to further decline, and the main contract rebounded at the lower edge of the previous trading range [7][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - Guangzhou launched 102 urban renewal projects on November 28, with a total investment of about 807.7 billion yuan, covering various types such as old - community renovation, dilapidated - building reconstruction, and infrastructure upgrading [8]. - On December 1, the coking coal price in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory cash - inclusive price of low - sulfur main - coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) at 1,580 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | | Monthly Change | | Annual Change | | Year - on - Year Change | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Last Weekend | Change Rate | Last Month End | Change Rate | Last Year End | Change Rate | Same - Period Value | Change Rate | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - first - grade FOB) | 1,670 | 1,670 | 0.00% | 1,570 | 6.37% | 1,690 | - 1.18% | 1,790 | - 6.70% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Ex - warehouse) | 1,450 | 1,480 | - 2.03% | 1,550 | - 6.45% | 1,620 | - 10.49% | 1,670 | - 13.17% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1,280 | 1,280 | 0.00% | 1,390 | - 7.91% | 1,180 | 8.47% | 1,330 | - 3.76% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1,570 | 1,590 | - 1.26% | 1,660 | - 5.42% | 1,490 | 5.37% | 1,630 | - 3.68% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1,710 | 1,790 | - 4.47% | 1,740 | - 1.72% | 1,530 | 11.76% | 1,700 | 0.59% | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate (%) | High Price | Low Price | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,574.5 | - 1.99 | 1,599.0 | 1,562.0 | 20,980 | 5,174 | 35,266 | 1,953 | | Coking Coal | | 1,067.0 | - 0.79 | 1,074.0 | 1,053.0 | 505,376 | 47,555 | 449,323 | - 3,013 | [13] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report shows various charts related to coke and coking coal inventories, including those of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, ports, and total inventories. It also includes charts on domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation [14][27][32]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Similar to the core views, for coke, considering production, inventory, and supply - side uncertainties, there is resistance to further decline in futures, and the focus is on actual coal - mine production. For coking coal, the supply side is the key factor, and although the market has been in a correction, there is resistance to further decline due to policy and production - cut expectations, with the focus on coal - mine production [34][35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Last week, Shanghai copper increased in volume and price, mainly due to the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the weakening of the US dollar index. On Friday night, copper prices continued to rise, with LME copper breaking through the $11,000 mark and hitting a new high, while Shanghai copper approached the 89,000 mark. Technically, the open interest of Shanghai copper increased from 510,000 contracts to 560,000 contracts last week, showing strong short - term upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the end - October high. If it breaks through, it may maintain a strong trend in the short term [6][63]. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices rebounded with a decrease in positions, and there was a trend of increasing positions and rising prices on Friday night. This rebound was mainly driven by macro factors, such as the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The decline in the Shanghai - LME ratio indicated that the rise was mainly led by the external market. Globally, the low inventory of electrolytic aluminum supported the price. However, as aluminum prices rebounded, domestic downstream demand decreased, and the spot discount widened. Technically, attention can be paid to the pressure at the 22,000 mark [7][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - Last week, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut continued to rise, with the probability of a December rate cut increasing from 70% to nearly 90%. Correspondingly, the US dollar index weakened from the 100 mark, which was beneficial to non - ferrous metals and precious metals [11]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity - Price Trend - Last week, Shanghai copper increased in volume and price. On Friday night, copper prices continued to rise, with LME copper breaking through the $11,000 mark and Shanghai copper approaching the 89,000 mark. The open interest of Shanghai copper increased from 510,000 contracts to 560,000 contracts, indicating increased capital attention and strong short - term upward momentum [6][63]. 3.2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - Last week, the port inventory of copper ore continued to rise from a low level and was close to the same - period level in previous years. On November 28, Mysteel's port inventory of copper ore was 674,000 tons, an increase of 78,000 tons from the previous week. In November, with the rise in sulfuric acid prices, the upstream smelting profit also rebounded [25]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Copper Stockpiling - On November 27, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 171,600 tons, a weekly decrease of 20,500 tons, while the inventory in COMEX + LME was 574,800 tons, a weekly increase of 18,400 tons [27]. 3.2.4 Downstream Primary Sector - As copper prices rose, the downstream market showed a situation of "not prosperous in the peak season", and the copper product start - up rate declined month - on - month in October. In November, the overall downstream entered the off - season, and copper prices remained high. It is expected that the downstream capacity utilization rate will remain at a low level in November [29]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity - Price Trend - Last week, aluminum prices rebounded with a decrease in positions, and there was a trend of increasing positions and rising prices on Friday night. The decline in the Shanghai - LME ratio indicated that the rise was mainly led by the external market. Technically, attention can be paid to the pressure at the 22,000 mark [7][63]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - On November 21, the port inventory of bauxite was 28.0705 million tons, an increase of 46,900 tons from the previous week and an increase of 9.7005 million tons compared with the same period in 2024. Last week, alumina was weak, with the main contract price falling below the 2700 mark, while aluminum prices rose with the non - ferrous metal sector, and the profit of upstream electrolytic aluminum widened [45][47]. 3.3.3 Slowing Depletion of Electrolytic Aluminum - In November, as aluminum prices continued to rise, overseas electrolytic aluminum showed a stockpiling trend, and the depletion of domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory slowed down. On November 27, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 590,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous week, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 544,700 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous week [50]. 3.3.4 Downstream Primary Sector - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods generally declined from a high level, mainly due to the rebound of aluminum prices, which led to a decrease in downstream demand. The inventory of aluminum rods remained at a low level, with the in - factory inventory at 91,400 tons, a slight increase of 2,900 tons from the previous week [56][59].

期货研究报告 贵金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 贵金属 | 周报 · 2025 年 12 月 1 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 金价反弹，金银比值下行明显 核心观点 上周金价上行，接近 11 月中旬高位，纽约金站上 4200 美元，沪 金站上 950 元关口。金价上行的动力主要来自于美联储降息预期持续 升温，美元指数高位回落。截至 11 月 30 日，市场预期 12 月美联储降 息概率已接近 90%，美元指数上周也是从 100 关口持续走弱。 短期临近美联储12月议息会议，美联储处于静默期，市场降息预 期可能维持，对应美元指数维持弱势运行，预计金价偏强运行。但中 长期金价走势相较于白银明显疲软，金银比值持续下行，美股也持续 走强，这很大程度上是市场风险偏好切换所致。技术上，可关注11月 中旬高位压力。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、 ...