Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, showing a volatile trend in the short and medium - term and a volatile and weak trend intraday [1][5]. - With the weakening of the previous macro - driving force, methanol has returned to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, and downstream demand is in the off - season, leading to a downward shift in the price center [5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - The short - term view of methanol 2601 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is volatile and weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1]. - On the night session of Monday this week, the price of the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract closed slightly lower by 1.04% to 2375 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend on Tuesday [5]. Driving Logic - The weakening of coal prices and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol are the main reasons for the weak operation of methanol prices. The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is large, and downstream demand is in the off - season [1][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For the 2601 contract of coking coal, in the short - term, it is in the range of oscillation; in the medium - term, it is oscillating and showing a slightly stronger trend; and on the intraday basis, it is also oscillating and slightly stronger. The overall view is oscillation due to the divergence between bulls and bears [1]. - For the 2601 contract of coke, in the short - term, it is in the range of oscillation; in the medium - term, it is oscillating and slightly stronger; and on the intraday basis, it is also oscillating and slightly stronger. The overall view is oscillation as multiple factors are intertwined and coke is operating at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Conditions - On August 18, the main contract of coking coal dropped from a high level, closing at 1187.5 yuan/ton with a decline of 2.94%. The main contract of coke also dropped from a high level, closing at 1702 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.56% [5][6]. 3.2 Core Logic - For coking coal, there is an increase in the divergence between bulls and bears, and the futures have entered a high - level oscillation pattern. After the "anti - involution" rectification starting from July 1, the coking coal market may continue to improve gradually. Through mild and orderly capacity optimization and industrial upgrading, the oversupply situation in the industry is expected to gradually ease, and the market supply - demand relationship will move towards a more balanced direction. Although there may be short - term adjustments, the medium - and long - term price center still has an upward basis [5]. - For coke, since August, there have been continuous disturbances in the news of the supply side of coking coal, the raw material of coke. Although the actual domestic coking coal supply has not been significantly affected so far, market expectations have improved. After the phased adjustment, the futures price of coke may still show a characteristic of being more likely to rise than to fall [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Report's Core View - The overall view on stock index futures is bullish. For the IH2509 contract, the short - term view is consolidation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is consolidation with a slight upward bias, with an overall upward outlook due to strong support from positive policy expectations [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is consolidation with a slight upward bias, and the medium - term view is upward. The stock index is expected to be mainly consolidation with a slight upward bias in the short term as the risk appetite in the stock market continues to recover [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 - For the IH2509 contract, short - term: consolidation; medium - term: upward; intraday: consolidation with a slight upward bias; overall view: upward. The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 - Yesterday, all stock indexes showed a trend of rising and then falling, closing higher after a volatile day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2809.1 billion yuan, an increase of 536.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The trading volume has been above 2 trillion yuan for many days, and the margin trading balance has also risen above 2 trillion yuan, indicating optimistic market sentiment and a continuous increase in investors' risk appetite [5]. - From the policy perspective, positive policy expectations strongly support the stock index. Anti - involution and consumption - promotion policies promote a moderate recovery of the price index from both supply and demand sides, repair corporate profits, and drive a positive cycle in the "residential consumption - corporate profit - employee salary" chain, increasing the expectation of an improving macro - economic fundamentals [5]. - From the industry perspective, the booming development of AI technology strengthens the logic of "domestic substitution" in technology. The phased easing of tariff issues is beneficial to enhancing the competitiveness of China's industrial chain, promoting scientific and technological innovation and technological progress [5]. - From the capital perspective, patient capital such as social security and insurance funds continues to enter the market, margin trading funds enter the market more quickly, and the non - bank deposit data in July increased significantly year - on - year, indicating a loose capital situation and continuous capital inflow into the stock market [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 8 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 短线看弱 | 美乌及俄乌趋于缓和，金价承压 | | 铜 | 2509 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 宏观氛围回暖，铜价企稳回升 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 策略参考 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 8 月 19 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：巴西大豆高升水的格局难有改变，这为豆粕提供了坚实的原料成本支撑，远月合约仍有供应和 成本的双重支撑。短期豆粕期价震荡偏强，内外价差修复。 策略参考 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：原油跟涨为棕榈油带来提振，此外东南亚棕榈油出口需求强劲，产量增幅不大，也对棕榈油期 价带来支撑。国内棕榈油缺乏自身驱动，整体跟随国际棕榈油期价波动，短期仍是易涨难跌走势。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive overview of macro - economic data, commodity investment trends, financial news, and stock market developments. It indicates that the government is taking measures to boost the economy, and various markets are influenced by factors such as geopolitical events, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics. For the bond market, different research institutions have different outlooks, with some expecting a downward trend in interest rates, while others are cautious about short - term fluctuations [1][2][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Macro Data** - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter. Manufacturing PMI in July 2025 was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month. Non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in July was 50.1%, also a decline from the previous month. Social financing scale in July was lower than the previous month and the same period last year. M1 and M2 growth rates increased in July compared to the previous month and the same period last year, while M0 growth decreased slightly. Financial institution RMB loans decreased in July. CPI was flat in July, and PPI remained negative. Fixed - asset investment growth slowed down, while social consumption and export and import growth showed positive trends [1]. **Commodity Investment** **Comprehensive** - The government aims to enhance macro - policy effectiveness, stimulate consumption, expand investment, and stabilize the real estate market. The central bank will boost the development of the movable - property financing market to support small and medium - sized enterprises. New futures and options contracts have been launched by the Shanghai Futures Exchange [2][3]. **Metals** - Geopolitical developments may ease tensions and reduce safe - haven demand. A company agreed to acquire gold and copper assets from BHP for $465 million. Peru's copper production increased by 7.1% in June. Some institutions raised the gold price target. Metal inventories at the London Metal Exchange generally decreased [4][5][6]. **Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals** - Some regions in Shandong plan to raise coke prices. The prices of coking coal and coke in the circulation field increased in early August. Glencore applied to include two copper projects worth over $13 billion in Argentina's investment incentive program [7]. **Energy and Chemicals** - Oil prices rose due to geopolitical tensions and supply concerns. Citi expects Russian pipeline gas supply to Europe to potentially resume by the end of 2025, which affects its gas price forecast. Indonesia anticipates an increase in oil and gas production in 2026 [9]. **Agricultural Products** - The price of soybean meal increased in early August. The anti - subsidy investigation on EU dairy products was extended. There are developments in corn, wheat, and ethanol production, and Brazil's competition authority is investigating the "soybean suspension plan" [10]. **Financial News** **Open Market** - The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 154.5 billion yuan on August 18. The Ministry of Finance and the central bank carried out treasury cash management operations with a winning bid of 120 billion yuan and an interest rate of 1.78% [12]. **Important News** - The government is committed to economic stability and market confidence. The trading association is investigating the misappropriation of debt - financing funds. There are various government bond operations, and the central bank signed a currency swap agreement with Thailand. There are international political developments and corporate bond - related events [13][14][15]. **Bond Market Review** - Bond yields generally rose, and bond futures prices fell. Different bond - related interest rates showed various trends, and overseas bond yields also had different movements. Some institutions have different outlooks on the bond market [17][18][22]. **Foreign Exchange Market** - The on - shore and offshore RMB showed different trends against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose, affecting other major currencies [21]. **Research Report Highlights** - Different institutions have different views on the bond market, including expectations of interest - rate decline, focus on structural policies, and suggestions on convertible bond investment [22][23][24]. **Today's Reminders** - Many bonds are scheduled to be listed, issued, and have payments on August 19 [25][26]. **Stock Market News** - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3700 points, driven by various types of funds. The number of new accounts at securities brokerages increased, and there is an expected inflow of more funds into the A - share market. The Hong Kong stock market had mixed performance, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange is researching the feasibility of adding a special voting channel for margin - trading accounts [27][28].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View The report predicts that the price of thermal coal will remain strong. The domestic thermal coal price has been running strongly this week, and it is expected to continue this trend due to factors such as high - temperature - driven demand, limited supply growth, and inventory reduction [5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Market Performance - As of August 14, the price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 692 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week, approaching the 700 - yuan mark [5]. - The overall atmosphere in the coal market is still optimistic, and coal prices are expected to remain strong in the middle and late August due to high temperatures [5]. Supply Side - In July, the national raw coal output was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, with a daily average output of 1.229 million tons; from January to July, the cumulative national raw coal output was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [5]. - Since August, affected by rainfall in major production areas, over - production inspections, and coal mine maintenance, thermal coal production has not recovered significantly, and supply growth in production areas is slow [5]. Demand Side - As of August 7, the daily coal consumption of 17 inland provinces was 409,200 tons, an increase of 24,700 tons week - on - week; the daily coal consumption of 8 coastal provinces was 251,800 tons, an increase of 28,500 tons week - on - week [5]. - The National Climate Center predicts that from late August to early September, temperatures in most parts of East China, Central China, and the northeast of Southwest China will be significantly higher, and the hydropower substitution effect may still be limited [5]. Inventory - As of August 14, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.3636 million tons, with a significant inventory reduction of 118,300 tons during the week, and the inventory was 118,200 tons lower than the same period last year [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall view on Treasury bond futures is "oscillation". In the short - term, Treasury bond futures are expected to operate in an oscillatory and weakly downward manner. The reasons are that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased, and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased, leading to a shift of funds from bonds to stocks and suppressing the demand for buying Treasury bonds [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillatory and weakly downward", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased, and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased [1] 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillatory and weakly downward", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that on August 16, 2025, the central bank released the second - quarter monetary policy implementation report, emphasizing "refinement" and "structure", which weakened the expectation of a comprehensive interest rate cut. Also, the risk appetite in the stock market has been rising recently, and funds have shifted from bonds to stocks, suppressing the demand for buying Treasury bonds. Overall, Treasury bond futures are expected to operate in an oscillatory and weakly downward manner in the short term [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The iron ore market shows a trend of increasing supply and demand, but the profit of steel mills is shrinking, and the fundamentals of iron ore are expected to weaken. The iron ore price is expected to continue the volatile adjustment, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2]. 3) Summary According to the Catalog Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the significant increase in supply and the volatile adjustment of ore prices [1]. Market Driving Logic - Both the supply and demand sides of iron ore have increased. The production of steel mills has stabilized, and the terminal consumption of ore has rebounded to a high level this year, showing good demand resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the profit of steel mills is shrinking, and the positive effect is weakening. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased, the shipments of miners have risen significantly to a high level this year, the overseas ore supply has increased, and domestic ore production has also recovered, resulting in an increase in ore supply. - Currently, the demand for iron ore has good resilience, which supports the ore price. But the supply has increased, and the incremental space for demand is limited. The fundamentals of ore are expected to weaken, and considering the relatively high valuation, the ore price is expected to continue the volatile adjustment [2].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 8 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面表现偏弱，钢价承压下行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 关税扰动再现，市场情绪趋弱，黑色金属集体承压走弱，相应的螺纹钢基本面表现偏弱，建筑 钢厂生产趋稳，螺纹钢周产量环比微降，但品种吨钢利润尚可，生产积极性未退，后续存有增量空 间。与此同时，螺纹钢需求如期走弱，高频指标环比下行，且下游行业并未好转，需求弱势格局未 变，继续 ...