Report Summary of Baocheng Futures Stock Index Futures Morning Report (November 20, 2025) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The short - term trend of the stock index is in a range - bound state due to the game between the profit - taking sentiment of funds and the expectation of policy benefits. In the medium and long term, the expectation of policy benefits and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market strongly support the stock index [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is strong, the intraday view is bullish, and the reference view is range - bound. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - All stock indexes oscillated and sorted yesterday, with differentiated trends. IF and IH closed slightly higher, while IM and IC closed slightly lower. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1742.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 203.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Due to the weakening of policy increment signals in November and the increasing profit - taking sentiment when the stock index approaches the previous high, there is still a need for technical consolidation of the stock index. Currently, the stock index is in a short - term oscillatory period of the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy benefit expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of profitable funds. In the long - term, policy benefit expectations and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market support the stock index. In short, the short - term long - short game in the market has intensified, and the stock index will maintain range - bound in the short term [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak and the medium - term view is oscillatory, with a reference view of oscillatory consolidation. The current upward and downward kinetic energy of treasury bond futures is limited. On one hand, economic data such as consumption, investment, and exports have weakened, indicating insufficient domestic demand, which provides strong support for treasury bond futures in the long - term. On the other hand, there is no strong need for further policy tightening this year, and the possibility of a short - term policy interest rate cut is low, limiting the upward kinetic energy of treasury bond futures. Due to tax period factors, capital liquidity fluctuations have intensified, and market interest rates have rebounded in the short - term, with the central bank mainly conducting net injections in the open market. Overall, treasury bond futures will maintain oscillatory consolidation in the short - term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **TL2512**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: weak; View: oscillatory consolidation; Core logic: short - term interest rate cut expectation decreases, long - term easing expectation remains [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: weak; Medium - term view: oscillatory; Reference view: oscillatory consolidation. Core logic: treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly declined yesterday. Upward and downward kinetic energy is limited. Economic data weakness supports long - term easing and treasury bond futures, but short - term policy rate cut is unlikely, and capital liquidity fluctuations and central bank net injections affect the market, resulting in short - term oscillatory consolidation [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The overall view is that the steel price of rebar 2601 will continue to search for the bottom in a volatile manner, with a short - term, medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday outlook of weak oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, with supply contraction having limited positive effects and demand being weak, while the relatively favorable factor is the low valuation. [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term outlook is oscillation, the medium - term outlook is oscillation, and the intraday outlook is weakly oscillating. It is advised to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the fundamentals are weakly stable and the steel price is searching for the bottom in a volatile manner. [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. Rebar production has declined to a low level, but the inventory is high, so the positive effect on the supply side is not strong. Meanwhile, rebar demand continues to weaken, with high - frequency indicators remaining at low levels in recent years, and the downstream industries are performing poorly. Demand will continue to weaken seasonally, dragging down the steel price. With supply contraction having limited positive effects and demand being weak, the fundamentals have not improved, and the steel price remains under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. It is expected that the steel price will continue to search for the bottom in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by SteelHome today. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved, and the ore price will maintain a volatile trend. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of Iron Ore 2601 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively, and attention should be paid to the support at the MA60 line [1]. - The rebound in iron ore demand is of uncertain sustainability, and supply remains high. The fundamentals of the iron ore market have not improved, and the ore price will be under pressure. The relative positive factor is the short - term support brought by the switching of the arbitrage logic, and the steel performance should be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA60 line, and the core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has not improved and the ore price will fluctuate [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - There have been changes in both the supply and demand sides of iron ore. Terminal consumption has rebounded, but steel mills' profitability is poor, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market remain unresolved, so the incremental space is limited. Domestic port arrivals of ore have continued to decline, while overseas miners' shipments have increased significantly. According to the shipping schedule, subsequent arrivals will also rebound. Overseas supply is active, and domestic supply is stable, so the ore supply remains high [2]. - The rebound in iron ore demand is of uncertain sustainability, and supply remains high. The fundamentals of the iron ore market have not improved, and the ore price will be under pressure. The relative positive factor is the short - term support brought by the switching of the arbitrage logic, and the steel performance should be monitored [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term and mid - term views are both "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic is that the Fed has turned hawkish, reducing the expectation of interest rate cuts [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term view is "oscillation", the mid - term view is "strong", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "long - term bullish". The core logic is macro - level easing and mine - end production cuts [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Since Tuesday this week, the gold price has rebounded after hitting a low. New York gold rebounded after falling below $4000 and reached the $4100 mark last night. Shanghai gold once rebounded above 940 last night [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The recent decline in precious metals was mainly due to hawkish remarks from multiple Fed officials, which reduced the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. However, the downward revision of the interest - rate - cut expectation was largely due to the market's previous optimistic expectations, and its sustainability is not strong, and it will return to being data - driven. The market sentiment has improved significantly, and the market's sentiment of reduced interest - rate - cut expectation has been released, leading to short - term emotional repair [3]. - **Key Data**: Pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls data for September to be released on Thursday this week and subsequent economic data, which will directly affect the market's expectation of Fed policies and determine the short - term trend of precious metals [3]. - **Long - term Impact**: After the APEC meeting between Chinese and US leaders at the end of October, market risk appetite has increased. If there is significant progress in the Russia - Ukraine situation, the gold price may continue to be under pressure [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Pay attention to the support at the $4000 mark below and the resistance at $4200 above [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Shanghai copper showed a slightly upward oscillation yesterday, and the main contract price stood above the 86,000 mark [4]. - **Driving Factors**: At the macro level, the market has warmed up, precious metals have rebounded significantly, and non - ferrous metals have also shown a rebound trend. The short - term market sentiment towards the Fed's hawkish stance has been released, and the market may experience emotional repair. In the industry, spot trading has also improved [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Pay attention to the support at the 86,000 mark [4].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 11 月 20 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 市场氛围偏空，焦煤持续回调 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 需求担忧仍存，焦炭弱势运行 | 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term weak trend, a medium - term oscillating trend, and a weak intraday trend. The overall situation is dominated by weak supply and demand, leading to an oscillating and weak trend [1][5] - With the expected loosening of the supply side, the future downward space of domestic methanol futures may be limited [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - On Wednesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and weak trend, with the futures price slightly lower. It is expected that on Thursday, it may continue this oscillating and weak trend [5] Supply - side Factors - The loss of coal - to - methanol plants is continuously expanding, increasing the expectation of supply contraction. Near the peak winter heating demand season, there is an expectation of gas restrictions for southwest natural - gas - to - methanol production [5] Demand - side and Inventory Factors - Domestic port inventories remain high, external imports are at a high level, and demand continues the weak rhythm [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, all of which are "oscillating weakly" with a medium - term "oscillating" view [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5]. - **Core Logic**: The market has digested the positive news in advance, and the US soybean export data is weak, especially the sales to China far below expectations. The cost support for the domestic soybean meal market exists but lacks continuous driving force. The domestic supply is loose, with high port soybean inventories, increased oil mill operating rates leading to high soybean meal inventories. The arrival of previously purchased Argentine soybean meal has further expanded the supply and increased supply pressure concerns, causing the futures price to weaken [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [7]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trends depend on external markets like soybean oil and the bio - diesel policy expectations of major producing countries. The current situation of loose supply and weak demand in the palm oil market is the main pressure. The short - term futures price will continue to oscillate, and it is necessary to pay attention to Malaysian production and export data, the final implementation of the US bio - diesel policy, and changes in global vegetable oil trade flows [7]. Other Related Information - **Price Calculation Method**: For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price, and the rise - fall range is calculated accordingly [2]. - **Strength and Weakness Definition**: A decline of more than 1% is considered weak; a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillating weakly; a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillating strongly; a rise of more than 1% is strong. Oscillating strongly/weakly only applies to intraday views [3]. - **Time - Cycle Definition**: Short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month, with the previous day's night - trading closing price as the benchmark [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly in the short - term and on the day, and show a volatile trend in the medium - term [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term view**: Weak [1] - **Medium - term view**: Volatile [1] - **Intraday view**: Weak [1] - **Reference view**: Weakly run [1] - **Core logic**: As domestic natural rubber producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan are approaching the end of the harvest season, the supply of domestic full - latex is expected to decline. Meanwhile, the domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic. After a previous steady rebound, the rubber market has entered a stage of long - short divergence. On Wednesday night, the 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures maintained a weakly volatile trend, and the futures price closed slightly lower. It is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Thursday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term view**: Weak [1] - **Medium - term view**: Volatile [1] - **Intraday view**: Weak [1] - **Reference view**: Weakly run [1] - **Core logic**: The recent macro sentiment is okay, but the slight decline of domestic and international crude oil futures on Wednesday night weakened the impetus for the continuous rebound of synthetic rubber futures. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the synthetic rubber market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated". Under the long - short divergence, the synthetic rubber futures showed a volatile and stable trend on Wednesday night, with the futures price slightly rebounding. It is expected to maintain a weak trend on Thursday [6].

Report Overview - This is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for November 20, 2025, covering multiple commodity sectors [1] 1. Power Coal - **Base Price**: The base price of power coal from November 13 to 19, 2025, remained at 32.60 yuan/ton, and the spreads between different contract months (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) were all 0 [2] 2. Energy and Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - **Base Price**: The base prices and ratios of energy commodities such as fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from November 13 to 19, 2025, showed different trends, with the base price of INE crude oil ranging from -21.45 to -0.36 yuan/ton, and the ratio from 0.1498 to 0.1520 [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Inter - period Spreads**: For rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol, the inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) varied. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rubber was 80 yuan/ton, and that of PVC was 309 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol also changed from November 13 to 19, 2025. For instance, on November 19, 2025, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2305 yuan/ton [9] - **Base Price**: The base prices of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP from November 13 to 19, 2025, showed different values. For example, the base price of rubber on November 19 was - 490 yuan/ton [10] 3. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: For rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, the inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, 9(10) - 5) were different. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rebar was 47 yuan/ton, and that of iron ore was - 35.5 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil changed from November 13 to 19, 2025. For example, on November 19, 2025, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.90 [20] - **Base Price**: The base prices of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 13 to 19, 2025, showed different values. For example, the base price of rebar on November 19 was 140.0 yuan/ton [21] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Base Price**: The domestic base prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 13 to 19, 2025, showed significant fluctuations. For example, the base price of copper on November 19 was 30 yuan/ton, and that of lead was - 240 yuan/ton [30] (2) London Market - **LME Premiums and Discounts**: On November 19, 2025, the LME premiums and discounts of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were - 33.13, - 32.88, 152.14, - 27.39, - 197.66, and 100.00 respectively, and the import profit and loss also varied [33] 5. Agricultural Products - **Base Price**: The base prices of soybeans No. 1, soybeans No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 13 to 19, 2025, showed different trends. For example, the base price of soybeans No. 1 on November 19 was - 125 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) were different. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of soybeans No. 1 was 28 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil was - 403 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No. 1/corn, soybeans No. 2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., changed from November 18 to 19, 2025. For example, on November 19, 2025, the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio was 2.76 [38] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Base Price**: The base prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 13 to 19, 2025, showed different values. For example, the base price of CSI 300 on November 19 was 23.09 [49] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were different. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 160 [49]