Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - As the previous policy's bullish expectations are digested by the market, the coal - chemical sector has corrected, and the cost support for methanol has weakened. The fundamental logic will dominate the futures market. With domestic methanol plants resuming production, supply pressure is rising, imports are sufficient, and port inventory is expected to increase significantly. In a weak supply - demand context, the methanol futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation pattern [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Situation - Although there was concentrated maintenance in domestic methanol production areas in early July, the spot price didn't rise significantly due to sufficient downstream inventory. Since late July, previously shut - down plants have resumed production, and the methanol operating rate will gradually increase. As of the week of August 1, the domestic average methanol operating rate was 81.92%, a 0.26 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, a 3.28 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last month, and an 11.46 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The weekly average methanol output was 193.02 tons, a 3.13 - ton increase from the previous week, a 5.69 - ton decrease from the same period last month, and a 31.20 - ton increase from the same period last year. Short - term domestic methanol supply recovery is greater than maintenance losses [3] - Since the third quarter, methanol supply in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South America has been sufficient. Although weather affected the arrival and unloading of imported methanol in China, the overall impact was limited, and the expectation of significant inventory accumulation at ports in East and South China is strong. In July, due to typhoons, only 110.69 tons of imported methanol were unloaded, and over 20 tons were postponed to August. Longzhong Information predicts that without weather interference, China's methanol imports in August will reach 155 tons, a monthly record high [4] Demand Situation - The recent shutdown of olefin plants in Zhejiang has increased the inventory accumulation pressure at methanol ports in East China. Although inland CTO procurement has improved apparent port demand, with the expected significant increase in methanol imports in August and no increase in the load of coastal olefin plants, the expectation of port inventory accumulation has risen, possibly leading to methanol flowing from ports to inland areas. As of the week of August 1, the methanol port inventory in East and South China was about 65.03 tons, a 6.32 - ton increase from the previous week, a 15.06 - ton increase from the same period last month, and a 15.80 - ton decrease from the same period last year. The inventory accumulation pressure, low trader purchasing willingness, weak basis, and weak supply - demand expectations have led to a significant decline in spot trading volume [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 媒体发文 焦煤 保持偏强走势 7 月预期主导市场，黑色金属集体上行，尤以焦煤涨幅最大，但随着重大会议结束，强预期兑现 有限，叠加经济数据有所走弱，乐观情绪迎来修正。7 月 30 日召开的中共中央政治局会议指出，要 依法依规治理企业无序竞争，推进重点行业产能治理。和 7 月 1 日中央财经委员会相比，政治局会 议在相关措辞上去掉了"低价"，之前的"推动落后产能有序退出"的表述也变成了"推进重点行业产能治 理"，市场对于反内卷政策推进预期存在一定反复。此外，月末统计局公布的 PMI 数据不及预期，7 月份值为 49.3%，环比上月下降 0.4 个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落，其中新订单指数为 49.4%，环比降 0.8 个百分点，更是加剧对制造业需求放缓担忧，继而对市场情绪也形成冲击。 供应恢复偏慢 焦煤市场运行逻辑在回归产业端，且近期供应影响更大。国内煤矿 7 月虽陆续复产，产量逐步 回升，但煤矿受到井下条件影响，叠加安全、环保等因素对产地部分煤矿造成零星的扰动，国内炼 焦煤产量恢复偏慢，供应显著低于前期高位。截至 8 月 1 日当周，钢联统计的 523 家 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory, and an intraday trend of oscillating strongly [1][5]. - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Despite the large supply pressure and off - season downstream demand, the rebound of domestic coal futures prices offsets the weak fundamentals, and the 2509 contract of domestic methanol futures may maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For methanol 2509, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is oscillatory and strong, and the reference view is a strong operation. The core logic is that there are differences between long and short positions, and methanol oscillates and stabilizes [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - The intraday view of methanol is oscillatory and strong, and the medium - term view is oscillatory, with a reference view of strong operation. The current supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift. Driven by the rebound of domestic coal futures prices, the 2509 contract of domestic methanol futures showed an oscillatory consolidation trend on Wednesday night, with the futures price slightly down 0.08% to 2395 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of volatility, and an intraday view of weak volatility [1][5] 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - frame Views - Short - term: The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile [1] - Medium - term: The medium - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile [1] - Intraday: The intraday view of crude oil 2509 is weakly volatile, and the reference view is a weak run [1][5] 3.2 Core Logic - Supply side: Eight major oil - producing countries in OPEC and non - OPEC decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September this year. Although OPEC+ started to relax voluntary production cuts in April, the production increase has not reached the target. OPEC's June production increased by 349,000 barrels per day, and the 8 countries in the agreement's production - increase period increased production by 394,000 barrels per day [5] - Macro - environment: Macro sentiment has weakened due to Trump's proposed tariff collection in the US, and supply pressure is prominent. Against this backdrop, on Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed 1.23% lower at 498.0 yuan per barrel [5] 3.3 Market Performance and Forecast - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed 1.23% lower at 498.0 yuan per barrel. It is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Thursday [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to show a short - term upward trend, with a mid - term oscillation and an intraday oscillation with a stronger bias. The view is to be bullish in the short run due to the cold non - farm payrolls and increased market risk - aversion demand [1][3] - Copper is expected to have a short - term upward trend, a mid - term oscillation, and an intraday oscillation with a stronger bias. The view is to be bullish in the short run as the domestic atmosphere has warmed up and copper prices have stabilized and rebounded [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - Short - term: Upward; Mid - term: Oscillation; Intraday: Oscillation with a stronger bias; Reference view: Bullish in the short run. The core logic is that the unexpected non - farm payrolls in early August and the previous inflation rebound have increased the expectation of a US economic recession, driving the rapid rebound of gold prices. Also, the expectation of Fed rate cuts may rise, and the US dollar index may weaken, which is beneficial to gold prices. The market currently expects 3 rate cuts this year. Short - term attention should be paid to the upper limit of the oscillation of New York gold since the second quarter [1][3] Copper - Short - term: Upward; Mid - term: Oscillation; Intraday: Oscillation with a stronger bias; Reference view: Bullish in the short run. The core logic is that macroscopically, the domestic atmosphere is good, while overseas, US economic data has been continuously below expectations. The market atmosphere is still stable. At the industrial level, upstream production is high, downstream demand is in the off - season and is weakening marginally, and electrolytic copper inventories are rising. With macro - level benefits and industrial - level drawbacks, copper prices are expected to continue to stabilize and rebound [1][5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 8 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 偏强运行 | 供应利好支撑，焦煤偏强运行 | | | | 运行 | 偏强 | | | | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 偏强运行 | 偏多因素主导，焦炭震荡上行 | | | | 运行 | 偏强 | | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡偏强 参 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is expected to see the price fluctuate at a high level. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlooks for iron ore 2509 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a weak bias respectively. The core logic is that the fundamental expectation is weakening, leading to an oscillatory adjustment of the ore price. It is suggested to focus on the support at the MA20 line [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakening. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously decreasing. However, steel mills' profitability is still good, and ore demand remains at a relatively high level, providing some support for the ore price. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has rebounded from a low level, while the shipments of overseas miners have decreased, but the reduction is not significant under high ore prices. Domestic ore production has contracted again. It is expected that the overall ore supply will increase steadily. - Currently, the resilience of ore demand is acceptable, supporting the high - level operation of the ore price. But as the supply is increasing, there is an expectation of weakening fundamentals. Under the game of long and short factors, the ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillatory consolidation state. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [3]

Report Summary Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, and steel prices are expected to continue the oscillatory trend. Pay attention to the support at the MA20 line and the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [2][3]. Summary by Related Content Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, causing steel prices to oscillate. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly running. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, with weekly production decreasing month - on - month. However, the profit per ton of the variety is good, so the sustainability of supply contraction is not strong. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar has weakened again, with high - frequency indicators showing a month - on - month decrease and being at a low level in the same period in recent years. The off - season demand is weak, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. In a low - inventory situation, the real - world contradictions of rebar are not significant. The strong performance of coking coal and coke drives steel prices to stabilize oscillatory. But with the supply - demand being weak, the fundamental situation is weakly stable, and the upward driving force is also not strong [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on TL2509 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively, with an overall view of "oscillation". The core logic is that there is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the main Treasury bond futures varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The main reason is that the market interest rate is close to the policy rate, and the moderately loose monetary policy remains unchanged, causing the market interest rate to decline since August and the Treasury bond futures to rebound after hitting the bottom. However, the obvious stock - bond seesaw effect and the rapid rise in the stock market's risk appetite suppress the bond market demand and restrict the rebound space of Treasury bond futures. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, short - term: oscillation; medium - term: oscillation; intraday: oscillation with a slight upward bias; overall view: oscillation. Core logic: Expectation of loose monetary policy exists, but short - term interest rate cut probability is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Varieties: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: oscillation with a slight upward bias; medium - term view: oscillation; reference view: oscillation. Core logic: Treasury bond futures showed a trend of rising and then falling yesterday, with narrow - range oscillation. Market interest rates have declined since August due to the moderately loose monetary policy. However, the stock - bond seesaw effect restricts the rebound space of Treasury bond futures. Short - term Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is that it will fluctuate strongly, and the medium - term view is that it will rise. The reference view is also a rise. The policy - end positive expectations provide strong support, and investors' risk preference is actively optimistic [1][5] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term is oscillating, the medium - term is rising, the intraday is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is rising, with policy - end positive expectations as the core support [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and rose, with IC and IM having the highest increases. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 175.91 billion yuan, an increase of 14.33 billion yuan from the previous day. External risk factors are easing, domestic economic data shows resilience, and the stock market risk preference is high. The trading volume is above 1.5 trillion yuan, and the margin balance exceeds 2 trillion yuan with continuous net buying of margin - trading funds, indicating strong investor confidence. Although the expectation of short - term policy intensification has weakened, policy support expectations still exist [5]