Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil are all "oscillating weakly" [5][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5] - **Core Logic**: Cost support has weakened as U.S. soybean export demand is lower than expected and the outlook for U.S. biodiesel policy is unclear, dragging down U.S. soybean futures prices. The spot market is also weak. Although the forward basis trading volume has slightly increased, traders are continuously losing money, and downstream aquaculture mostly replenishes based on rigid demand. The market faces double pressure of loose supply and weak demand. The 3000 yuan/ton level has become a key psychological and technical support level [5] Soybean Oil (Y) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [7] - **Core Logic**: The core pressure comes from the uncertainty of U.S. biodiesel policy. Trump's government considering delaying the import biofuel incentive cut plan has hit the demand expectation of U.S. soybean oil for biodiesel, leading to a decline in U.S. soybean oil futures prices. In addition, as soybean futures prices fall from high levels, the cost support for domestic soybean oil from imported soybeans has weakened. The domestic soybean oil market supply is very loose, and the inventory has reached a high level of nearly 1.2 million tons in the same period, with weak terminal edible oil consumption [7] Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [8] - **Core Logic**: The palm oil market is facing a game between high supply and policy expectations. In the short term, the high inventory pressure in the producing areas limits the upside space, and its trend more depends on external markets such as soybean oil. Biodiesel policy is a key variable. The reality of loose supply and weak demand in the palm oil market is the main pressure, and the month - on - month decline in Malaysian palm oil exports from November 1st - 20th has widened, increasing market bearish sentiment [8]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-11-21 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，甲醇震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：目前煤制甲醇装置亏损程度持续扩大，供应端收缩预期增强。同时临近冬季取暖需求旺 季，西南天然气制甲醇面临限气预期。当下国内港口库存依然高企，外部进口维持高位，需求延续 偏弱节奏。随着供应端预期出现松动，未来国内甲醇期货继续下探空间或有限。本周四夜盘 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 21, 2025, including the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. [1][5][22][28][39][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - The basis of power coal from November 14 to November 20, 2025, was 32.6 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month were all 0 [2] 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, crude oil/asphalt, INE crude oil from November 14 to November 20, 2025, are presented, along with their price ratios on some dates [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from November 14 to November 20, 2025, shows different values and trends [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided [10] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from November 14 to November 20, 2025, are presented [10] 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month (10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) minus 5 - month for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given, with a note on the rebar's main contract months [21] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from November 14 to November 20, 2025, are presented [21] - **Basis**: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 14 to November 20, 2025, shows different values [22] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 14 to November 20, 2025, is provided [30] 3.4.2 London Market - On November 20, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the London market are presented [33] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 14 to November 20, 2025, is provided [39] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given [39] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from November 14 to November 20, 2025, are presented [38] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 14 to November 20, 2025, is provided [50] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of next - month minus current - month and next - quarter minus current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given [50]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-11-21 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 49.80 | 50.10 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.10 | 50.00 | 50.20 | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: The short - term fundamentals of coke have improved, but the sustainability is expected to be limited. There are still concerns about demand, and the market's divergence on the previous major upward driver, "cost - side support," has increased. The coke futures are in a volatile correction. As of the week of November 14, the total daily output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants decreased by 0.51 tons week - on - week to 109.17 tons, while the daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.66 tons week - on - week to 236.88 tons. The fourth price increase of coke was difficult to implement, and the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,670 yuan/ton, with expected improvement in coking enterprise profits [6][32]. - **Coking Coal**: Since November, coking coal has been in a continuous correction mainly due to increased divergence on the supply side. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized energy supply guarantee, and the output of 523 coking coal mines improved last week. Also, there is a lack of new policy incentives for the coal industry's anti - involution since July. The strong supply - side expectation of coking coal has slowed down. After the coking coal futures reached the upper limit of the oscillation range at the end of October, the driving force for further upward breakthrough was insufficient. However, the expectations of the Politburo meeting in December and the contraction of coal mine output at the end of the year remain to be realized, and attention should be paid to the support of the main contract at the lower limit of the oscillation range [6][32]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - On November 19, the Office of the Command for in - depth Pollution Prevention and Control in Jiangsu Province issued a notice to start a yellow alert for heavy pollution weather in 7 cities including Xuzhou from 10:00 on November 20 [8]. - On November 20, the prices of coking coal in the Tangshan market remained stable, with the price of prime coking coal at 1,645 yuan/ton and fat coal at 1,630 yuan/ton, both ex - factory prices including cash and tax [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke (Warehouse - out) | 1,670 yuan/ton | +3.09% | +6.37% | - 1.18% | - 6.70% | | Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke (Warehouse - out) | 1,490 yuan/ton | - 2.61% | - 3.87% | - 8.02% | - 11.83% | | Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coking Coal | 1,330 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 4.32% | +12.71% | - 3.62% | | Jingtang Port Australian Coking Coal | 1,600 yuan/ton | - 0.62% | - 3.61% | +7.38% | - 4.76% | | Jingtang Port Shanxi Coking Coal | 1,830 yuan/ton | 0.00% | +5.17% | +19.61% | +7.65% | [10] Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory from 2019 - 2025 [13][15][17]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts present the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mills' coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plants' coking coal from 2019 - 2025 [19][22][24]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and bar procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation conditions [26][28][31]. Market Outlook The analysis of coke and coking coal is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the short - term improvement but limited sustainability of coke fundamentals and the continuous correction of coking coal due to supply - side divergence [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar was weak, with a daily decline of 1.01%. Although demand improved, its sustainability was questionable. Supply was also rising, and the fundamentals remained poor. With relatively low valuation, it was expected to continue low - level oscillations, and demand performance should be monitored [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil plate was weakly volatile, with a daily decline of 0.55%. Thanks to demand improvement, the supply - demand pattern improved and inventory decreased again. However, supply pressure remained, demand resilience was questionable, and the positive effect was limited. With low valuation, it was expected to continue low - level oscillations, and steel mill production should be monitored [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore was volatile, with a daily decline of 0.32%. Although demand rebounded, its sustainability was uncertain, and supply remained high. The fundamentals of the iron ore market did not improve, and prices were still under pressure. The short - term support from the switching of arbitrage logic was a relative positive. It was expected to maintain a volatile trend, and steel performance should be monitored [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In October 2025, the tower crane utilization rate per day was 57.0%, and the maximum lifting moment utilization rate was 57.8%, 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month respectively. The rental price index was 495.02 points, 2.29 points lower than the previous month and 72.78 points lower than the same period last year [7]. - In October, the sales of some first - grade energy - efficient household appliances increased by over 10%. The sales of smart health equipment increased by over 20%, smart wearable devices by about 4%, and organic food by over 8%. New - energy passenger vehicle retail sales increased by 7.3%, with a penetration rate of 57.2%. From January to October, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 6.3% [8]. - The Donghua Iron and Steel's project of integrating and reorganizing Chunxing Iron and Steel for reduction replacement and transformation and upgrading was nearly fully put into production. The total investment was 21 billion yuan, covering 3,800 mu. A 1,690 - cubic - meter blast furnace, with an investment of 640 million yuan, was put into operation in September 2024. Two 110 - ton electric furnaces started construction in January this year and were progressing as planned [9]. 2. Spot Market - Rebar: The Shanghai price was 3,180 yuan, down 10 yuan; Tianjin was 3,220 yuan, down 10 yuan; the national average was 3,269 yuan, down 7 yuan [10]. - Hot - rolled coil plate: The Shanghai price was 3,270 yuan, down 10 yuan; Tianjin was 3,210 yuan, down 10 yuan; the national average was 3,312 yuan, down 8 yuan [10]. - Tangshan steel billet: The price was 2,940 yuan, down 30 yuan [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The price was 2,130 yuan, unchanged [10]. - Main variety spreads: The coil - rebar spread was 90 yuan, and the rebar - scrap spread was 1,050 yuan [10]. - 61.5% PB powder (Shandong port): The price was 792 yuan, down 2 yuan [10]. - Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet - based): The price was 812 yuan, unchanged [10]. - Ocean freight: Australia was 10.83 yuan, up 0.36 yuan; Brazil was 24.39 yuan, up 0.62 yuan [10]. - SGX swap (current month): The price was 104.50 yuan, unchanged [10]. - Platts index (CFR, 62%): The price was 105.10 yuan, down 0.10 yuan [10]. 3. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,070 yuan, with a decline of 0.49%. The trading volume was 912,064 lots, an increase of 110,175 lots. The open interest was 1,631,133 lots, a decrease of 24,336 lots [14]. - Hot - rolled coil plate: The closing price of the active contract was 3,277 yuan, with a decline of 0.18%. The trading volume was 308,474 lots, a decrease of 18,941 lots. The open interest was 1,196,921 lots, a decrease of 20,253 lots [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 791.5 yuan, with an increase of 0.76%. The trading volume was 245,541 lots, a decrease of 16,754 lots. The open interest was 480,907 lots, an increase of 9,616 lots [14]. 4. Related Charts - The report presented various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes and total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil plate, as well as iron ore inventories in 45 ports and 247 steel mills, and steel mill production indicators such as blast furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates [16][21][29]. 5. Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply increased, with weekly output up 7.96 tons and inventory at a relatively high level. Demand improved, with weekly apparent demand up 14.42 tons, but mostly due to speculative demand. With poor fundamentals and low valuation, it was expected to continue low - level oscillations, and demand performance should be monitored [38]. - Hot - rolled coil plate: Supply increased, with weekly output up 2.35 tons and high inventory pressure. Demand improved, with weekly apparent demand up 10.83 tons, but the improvement space was limited. With limited fundamental improvement and low valuation, it was expected to continue low - level oscillations, and steel mill production should be monitored [39]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern did not improve, and inventory continued to increase. Although demand rebounded, its sustainability was uncertain, and supply remained high. With short - term support from arbitrage logic switching, it was expected to maintain a volatile trend, and steel performance should be monitored [39].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The lithium carbonate market is showing signs of stabilization. The futures and spot prices have generally been on an upward trend in the past 10 trading days, but the short - term supply elasticity is insufficient. The futures contract LC2601.GFE closed at 98,980 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton (-0.32%) from the previous day, while the spot price of lithium carbonate was 91,330 yuan/ton, up 2.69% from the previous day. The current basis is - 8,690 points, and the registered warehouse receipts increased by 150 lots (+0.56%) to 26,916 lots [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract was 98,980 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the settlement price was 100,020 yuan/ton, up 1,860 yuan/ton from the previous day. Compared with 5 trading days ago, the closing price increased by 11,140 yuan/ton, and the settlement price increased by 11,660 yuan/ton [6]. - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The prices of lithium spodumene from different origins (Australia, Brazil, Zimbabwe, etc.) increased, with the price range of Australian CIF6 China lithium spodumene concentrate being 1,230 - 1,280 US dollars/ton, up 50 - 40 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The prices of lithium mica with different Li2O contents in China also rose, such as the average price of lithium mica (Li2O:1.5 - 2) increasing by 145 yuan/ton to 2,245 yuan/ton [6]. - **Lithium Salt Prices**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric - grade lithium carbonate was 91,330 yuan/ton, up 2,390 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide was 80,600 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price difference between lithium hydroxide (56.5%, domestic) and lithium carbonate (99.5% electric, domestic) was - 10,730 yuan/ton, down 890 yuan/ton from the previous day [6]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The price of some downstream products such as electrolyte (manganese - acid lithium) and lithium iron phosphate (cathode material) increased, while the prices of some ternary materials and precursors remained stable or changed slightly [6]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: The charts show the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate over time [8]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: The charts display the price changes of manganese - acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [10][15]. - **Other Related Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The charts present the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate futures [17][18].

Report Title - The report is titled "Futures Research Report - Non-ferrous Metals" [1][2] Report Date - The report is dated November 20, 2025 [5] Core Views Copper - Today, Shanghai copper prices rose first and then fell, with little change in open interest. The short - term market has released the hawkish sentiment towards the Fed, but the US dollar index remains strong above 100, which is negative for non - ferrous metals. Overseas inventories are rising, pressuring copper prices. Attention should be paid to the US non - farm payrolls data tonight. Technically, focus on the support at the 86,000 level [7] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices also rose first and then fell, with open interest continuously declining. The overseas US dollar index is strong, and the domestic atmosphere is weakening. As aluminum prices fall, downstream transactions are warming up, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has slightly decreased. On the 20th, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from Monday. Technically, focus on the support of the 20 - day moving average [8] Nickel - Shanghai nickel prices decreased with increasing positions, erasing the overnight gains. The domestic market weakened, and non - ferrous metals generally declined. Nickel prices decreased with increasing positions, showing strong downward momentum. As nickel prices fall, the spot premium is gradually strengthening, indicating stronger support at the spot end. Technically, focus on the support at the 115,000 level [9] Industry Dynamics Copper - On November 20, according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in October 2025, China's imports of copper scrap and waste reached 196,600 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. The cumulative imports from January to October were 1.8956 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.97% [11] Aluminum - On November 20, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from Monday [11] Nickel - On November 20, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 116,000 - 120,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 118,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,000 - 4,200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowinning nickel was 0 - 500 yuan/ton [12] Related Charts Copper - The report includes charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper inventory and cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][14][15] Aluminum - There are charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [26][28][30][32] Nickel - Charts cover nickel basis, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][40][43][47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - Multiple factors drive the coking coal futures price from rising to falling. With current weak demand and continuous supply recovery, the supply - demand pattern has changed. It is expected to remain under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to the downstream winter storage and replenishment efforts [6] Summary by Related Content Price Movement - In November, coking coal futures weakened from a strong position. The main contract dropped from a high of 1,318 yuan/ton to around 1,159 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of over 12%, weaker than steel and iron ore. Spot prices also fell, with the self - pick - up price of Meng 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port dropping 6.15% [2] Factors for Price Decline - Supply expectation changed. After the National Development and Reform Commission arranged the energy supply guarantee for the heating season, the expectation of increased coal mine supply strengthened, leading to a significant correction in coking coal futures prices [2] - Demand weakened. Steel price decline worsened steel mill profits, and temporary production restrictions in many places increased maintenance equipment in steel mills, reducing the demand for coking coal [2] - The rising trend of thermal coal prices slowed down. After a rapid increase in October, the price increase of thermal coal slowed down, and some coal mines even lowered prices, pressuring coking coal prices [2] - The arbitrage logic among black - series varieties changed, increasing the willingness of relevant funds to leave the market, leading to a decline in coking coal futures positions and prices [2] Coking Enterprise Situation - Despite the full implementation of the fourth round of coke price increases, coking enterprise profitability did not improve. As of the week of November 13, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 34 yuan, up 12 yuan month - on - month. Only in Shandong and Hebei were there positive profits [3] - The proportion of profitable coking plants in the sample was 32.19%, down 10 percentage points month - on - month. Most coking enterprises were in a loss state, with low production enthusiasm and a continuous decline in coke production [3] Long - term Demand Outlook - As of the week of November 14, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 236.88 tons, up 2.66 tons month - on - month. The increase was due to the resumption of production after the lifting of production restrictions, but its sustainability is questionable [4] - The proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills was 38.96%, down 29.44 percentage points in 14 consecutive weeks. Steel mills entered a large - scale loss state [4] - The downstream demand in the steel industry is limited. In October, industries such as real estate and manufacturing recovered slowly, and building - material - related industries performed poorly. Steel demand will weaken in the off - season, reducing steel mill production enthusiasm and the expected demand for coking coal [4] Supply Situation - Domestic coal mine production has gradually recovered. As of the week of November 13, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 86.28%, and the daily average raw coal output was 191.95 tons, up 2.52 percentage points and 5.62 tons month - on - month respectively, reaching a new high since October [5] - In the short term, due to factors such as safety inspections and underground working face conditions, the production of some coal mines may decline. Mines that have completed their annual production and sales tasks in December may stop production early, and the increase in coking coal supply is limited [5] Import Situation - Overseas resource imports have recovered. As of October 31, the cumulative import and export freight volume at Ganqimaodu Port was 33.3045 million tons, including 31.4486 million tons of imported coal. 74% of the 2025 cargo volume target has been completed, and subsequent customs clearance vehicle numbers are expected to remain high [6]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The domestic ethylene glycol industry has entered a deep adjustment phase of supply - demand re - balancing. Since September, the ethylene glycol futures 2601 contract has been on a unilateral downward trend, and it is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the future [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Supply Side - Domestic ethylene glycol production capacity is continuously released, and supply pressure is accumulating. As of the week of November 13, the domestic ethylene glycol enterprise capacity utilization rate was 66.00%, with a slight increase of 0.12 percentage points. The total output was 41.37 tons, a slight increase of 0.08 tons. The capacity utilization rate is at a relatively high level this year [3]. - In 2025, the total domestic ethylene glycol production capacity exceeded 29.8 million tons. The trial - run of Shandong Yulong's 900,000 - ton device strengthened the expectation of increased supply. Although some devices are planned for maintenance, new production capacity far exceeds the short - term reduction caused by maintenance, resulting in a continuously loose supply - demand pattern [3]. - Overseas supply has decreased due to some US device shutdowns and low - load operation of Saudi devices, and imports are at a relatively low level. However, the significant increase in domestic self - sufficiency has weakened the marginal impact of imports [3]. Demand Side - Downstream demand is weak, and its support for prices is extremely limited. About 95% of ethylene glycol consumption is concentrated in the polyester industry. After the "Double Eleven" orders in the textile market were delivered, subsequent orders were scarce, and the market was cautious about the future [4]. - As of the week of November 13, domestic ethylene glycol demand was 552,200 tons, a 0.31% decrease from the previous week [4]. Inventory - Port inventory has been continuously accumulating. As of the week of November 13, the total inventory of MEG at the East China main port reached 618,000 tons, a slight increase of 13,000 tons. The inventory accumulation is due to increased domestic production, concentrated arrivals of goods, and insufficient downstream receiving capacity [5]. - With the stable output of new devices and more arrival plans, the inventory accumulation trend is difficult to reverse, and high inventory will suppress prices [5].