Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Copper**: Last night, the macro - atmosphere weakened, and the copper price dropped below the 86,000 yuan mark. Today, the decline slowed, with the open interest of Shanghai copper continuing to decline, and the main futures price stabilizing around 85,600 yuan. After the US non - farm payrolls data was released last night, the US stocks opened high and closed low with a significant decline, and the Asian market continued the downward trend today. In the industry, as the copper price fell, spot transactions improved, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased slightly. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 85,500 yuan level [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum significantly decreased with a reduction in positions, and the main futures price fell below the 21,500 yuan mark. Last night, the overseas macro - atmosphere weakened, and the domestic market continued the downturn. In the industry, as the aluminum price weakened, downstream transactions improved, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 40 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel fluctuated downward, with little change in open interest, and the main futures price fell below the 115,000 yuan mark. Last night, the overseas macro - atmosphere weakened, and the domestic market continued the decline. As the nickel price dropped, the spot premium gradually strengthened, indicating stronger support in the spot market. Technically, the main futures price breaking below the 115,000 yuan mark has strong downward momentum [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On November 21st, the weekly SMM copper cable operating rate increased by 1.32 percentage points. As the copper price fell below 86,000 yuan/ton, orders rebounded, but some enterprises were still observing. The demand for automotive wiring harnesses was good. SMM expected a slight increase in the operating rate next week as enterprises would increase production for the end - of - November rush [9]. - **Aluminum**: On November 20th, the Mysteel electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from Monday [10]. - **Nickel**: On November 21st, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 114,400 - 119,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 116,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,000 - 4,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel spot premium and discount quotation range was 0 - 500 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: Relevant charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [12][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Related charts are aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: Relevant charts cover nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][43][39].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 21 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实格局偏弱，钢矿延续震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.07%日涨幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 螺纹需求有所好转，但持续性存疑，相反供应也在回升，供需双增局面 下螺纹基本面表现依旧不佳，钢价继续承压，相对利好的是估值偏低， 预计走势延续低位震荡运行态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0%日跌幅，量仓收缩。目前来看， 热卷供需格局有所好转，库存再度去化，但供应压力未解，且需求韧性 存疑，基本 ...

Report General Information - Report Date: November 21, 2025 [5] - Report Type: Daily Report on Coal and Coke in the Ferrous Metals Industry [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: The latest data shows that both supply and demand of coke have weakened slightly, with little change in the fundamentals. As of the week ending November 21, the combined daily average coke output of independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 1088,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 2800 tons. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2,362,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 6000 tons, and the profitability rate of steel mills continued to decline by 1.3 percentage points to 37.66%, indicating that steel mills are in a large - scale loss situation. Overall, the strong supply expectation of coking coal has cooled down, dragging down the cost support of coke. The main futures contract maintains a weak and volatile operation. Continuous attention should be paid to the supply of coking coal [6][36]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending November 21, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 758,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 38,000 tons. The combined daily average coke output of downstream coking plants and steel mills was 1088,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 2800 tons. Although the profits of independent coking plants have improved significantly this week, the port market has over - anticipated price cuts in advance. There are doubts about the extent and sustainability of the improvement in downstream demand, and the positive factors on the demand side of coking coal are still insufficient. Overall, the weakening of the anti - involution expectation and the accelerated customs clearance of Mongolian coal have weakened the supply - side support of coking coal. However, considering that the output of coal mines may decline after achieving production targets at the end of the year and the Politburo meeting will be held in December, the sustainability of the downward trend of coking coal futures remains to be observed [6][36]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry News - **Electricity Consumption**: In October, the total social electricity consumption was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. The electricity consumption of the primary, secondary, tertiary industries and urban and rural residents all increased year - on - year, with the tertiary industry and urban and rural residents having relatively high growth rates [8]. - **Port Cargo Volume**: As of November 16, the cumulative import and export freight volume of Ganqimao Port was 35.8326 million tons, including 33.8984 million tons of imported coal. The port has completed 80% of its annual cargo volume target, with a remaining gap of about 8.7 million tons for coal. The three major ports will be closed on November 26 for the Mongolian Republic's National Day and resume customs clearance on November 27. There is a possibility of an increase in the daily customs clearance vehicle number at Ganqimao Port next week. The self - pick - up price of the mainstream Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped by 170 yuan/ton from the highest price in November [9]. 2. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change |同期 Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Coke - Rizhao Port Standard First - Class FOB** | 1670 yuan/ton | +3.09% | +6.37% | - 1.18% | - 6.70% | | **Coke - Qingdao Port Standard First - Class Ex - warehouse** | 1490 yuan/ton | - 2.61% | - 3.87% | - 8.02% | - 10.78% | | **Coking Coal - Ganqimao Port Mongolian Coal** | 1330 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 4.32% | +12.71% | - 3.62% | | **Coking Coal - Jingtang Port Australian Coal** | 1590 yuan/ton | - 1.24% | - 4.22% | +6.71% | - 6.47% | | **Coking Coal - Jingtang Port Shanxi Coal** | 1790 yuan/ton | - 2.19% | +2.87% | +16.99% | +5.29% | [10] 3. Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Price Change | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Coke** | - | 1614.5 | - 1.31 | 1647.5 | 1614.5 | 16023 | - 3327 | 36556 | 80 | | **Coking Coal** | - | 1103.0 | - 1.82 | 1124.0 | 1096.0 | 620493 | - 94108 | 497103 | - 39806 | [15] 4. Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory data of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, ports and total coke inventory on a weekly basis from 2020 - 2025 [16][18][21]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts present the inventory data of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mills and all - sample independent coking plants on a weekly basis from 2019 - 2025 [22][25][27][33]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel mill production (blast furnace operating rate and steel mill profitability rate), Shanghai terminal wire and rod procurement volume, coal washing plant production (coal washing plant clean coal inventory and operating rate), and coking plant operation (ton - coke profit and coke oven capacity utilization rate) [29][31][34][35]. 5. Future Outlook - Similar to the core viewpoints, it emphasizes the weakening supply and demand of coke, the cooling of the strong coking coal supply expectation, and the insufficient positive factors on the coking coal demand side. The downward trend sustainability of coking coal futures needs further observation [36].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report In the context of weak supply and demand, the asphalt futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future. The supply side is passively shrinking due to profit decline, the demand side is restricted by funds and weather factors, showing a regional differentiation of "weak in the north and strong in the south" with insufficient overall recovery momentum. Although the destocking of asphalt social inventory has relieved market pressure, the marginal increase in refinery inventory also indicates increasing sales pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Profit Affects Supply - Recently, the asphalt futures 2601 contract dropped to around 3,000 yuan/ton. The current fundamentals continue the situation of weak supply and demand, with light trading in the spot market and a continuous weakening of the basis between futures and spot, highlighting the pattern of a lackluster peak season [2]. - Since the fourth quarter, affected by the fluctuation of international crude oil prices, asphalt processing profits have been in a loss state. For example, Shandong local refineries once suffered losses of more than 600 yuan/ton in asphalt processing. Although the processing profits have recently recovered, they are still far below normal levels. As a result, refineries' production enthusiasm has been dampened, and they have actively reduced asphalt output through maintenance or production conversion. As of the week of November 12, the average theoretical asphalt processing profit in China was -593.2 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 58.8 yuan/ton; the capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 30.8%, a weekly decrease of 1.1 percentage points; and the weekly asphalt output was 514,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.4% [2]. - Currently, the capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt refineries is at a near five-year high, and asphalt production is at a near five-year medium-high level. Against the backdrop of still high supply pressure, the spot price of asphalt has continued to decline since November. As of November 12, the average spot price of asphalt was 3,211 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 120 yuan/ton, or a decline of 3.6%. The supply in Shandong has increased significantly, refineries' enthusiasm for releasing contracts has risen, and considering the decrease in downstream consumption during the off-season, prices are under pressure [2]. Terminal Recovery is Weak - The downstream demand for asphalt is mainly for road infrastructure, accounting for up to 70%. Its prosperity is closely related to the issuance progress of local government special bonds and the availability of project funds. Although 2025 is the final year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and some northern projects have the expectation of rushing to complete work, the overall infrastructure investment growth rate has fallen short of expectations, and the expected increase in demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season did not occur. Poor fund availability has led to slow project progress, resulting in limited actual asphalt physical work volume [3]. - Judging from the operating rate data, the operating rates of major downstream industries such as heavy-traffic asphalt and modified asphalt are generally lower than historical levels, reflecting weak terminal demand recovery. In the second half of November, a new round of cold weather occurred in some northern regions, and market rigid demand gradually slowed down, with road construction basically at a standstill. In contrast, due to relatively favorable weather conditions in the southern region, some infrastructure projects still have the need to rush to complete work, which is currently one of the few demand bright spots. However, the southern market has a low acceptance of high-priced newly produced asphalt and prefers to purchase low-priced social inventory resources. As of the end of the first ten days of November, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 362,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 18.7% [3]. De-stocking Pattern Continues - Currently, the inventory of domestic asphalt continues to decline. According to data from Longzhong Information, as of the week of November 17, the social inventory of asphalt dropped to 1.128 million tons, a weekly decrease of 1.5%. Among them, the social inventory in Shandong has decreased significantly. Some projects in Shandong are in the final stage, and industry players have mostly sold off their inventory, driving a significant reduction in social inventory. Although the northern terminals have entered the shutdown stage, the enthusiasm of traders for stockpiling is low, and the wait-and-see atmosphere has gradually become stronger. The refinery inventory rate is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years, and it still has a supporting effect on prices. With the rapid shrinkage of northern demand, if the southern rush-to-complete work demand cannot effectively take over, the refinery inventory pressure will gradually emerge in the later part of the fourth quarter [3].

Core View - The futures traders in Hangzhou are both rational practitioners and poetic dream - chasers, combining professionalism in trading with a pursuit of spiritual and emotional fulfillment [3] Summary of Different Scenes Morning - An experienced futures trader named Lao Hu gets up early to check the CBOT soybean trend while having prepared homemade dumplings. His wife jokes that he dreams about calculating basis spreads [2] - Lao Wang starts his live - stream at 7:15 AM, using a bowl of Pian'erchuan noodles to explain trading principles. He has a large number of fans on Douyin and is proud of making futures trading understandable to ordinary people [2] Mid - day - In cafes and shared offices, young people and private fund traders discuss futures - related topics like copper inventory and analyze trading records [3] - Lao Fu postpones dental treatment due to the market. During the waiting time at the hospital, he sees a news about forced liquidation and shares his view on the market on WeChat [3] Afternoon - A young female trader and her "90s" team focus on trading during the day, conduct in - depth reviews at night, and participate in closed - door meetings on weekends. They emphasize the need to work hard in Hangzhou's futures market [3] After trading hours - Some traders go to the gym to relieve stress, while others meet friends and enjoy food by the canal [3] Overall characteristics - Hangzhou's futures traders have a tenacious spirit of exploration. They are proficient in data analysis and policy research, and also pay attention to spiritual and emotional experiences. They believe in both the "valuation + driver" investment framework and the philosophy that "the heart is the market" [3]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-11-21 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧延续，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧延续，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着国内云南和海南天胶产区逐渐临近停割季，未来国产全乳胶供应预期逐渐下降 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both the short - term and medium - term, the views on both coking coal and coke are "sideways trading". The intraday view is "sideways trading with a weak bias", and the overall reference view is a "sideways trading approach" [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Trend**: Since November, coking coal has been in a continuous correction [5]. - **Core Logic**: The divergence on the supply side has increased. On one hand, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized energy supply guarantee, and the output of 523 coking coal mines improved week - on - week last week. On the other hand, there is a lack of new policy incentives for the coal industry after the production capacity verification in July. The strong supply - side expectations have slowed down, and the upward breakthrough drive is insufficient. However, the expectations of the Politburo meeting in December and the reduction of coal mine output at the end of the year remain to be fulfilled [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Trend**: The fourth round of price increases for coke has been difficult to implement [6]. - **Core Logic**: In the spot market, the atmosphere of coking coal spot has cooled down. In terms of supply and demand, as of the week of November 14, the total daily output of coke from independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants decreased week - on - week, while the daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased week - on - week. The short - term fundamentals have improved, but the sustainability is limited, and there are still concerns about demand [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. Steel mills' production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has declined. This week, the average daily molten iron output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills both decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis. With the unimproved profitability of steel mills and production restrictions, the demand for iron ore continues to be weak. Meanwhile, although the arrivals at domestic ports have been falling, the shipments from overseas miners have increased significantly and returned to the annual high. According to the shipping schedule, the arrivals will rise again. The supply of foreign ore is positive, and the domestic ore production is stable, so the ore supply remains at a high level. Currently, the iron ore demand is weakly stable, and the supply is high, so the fundamentals of the ore market are weak, and the ore price is under pressure. The positive factor is the support from the switching of the arbitrage logic, and the ore price will maintain a volatile trend in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 15,054.65, with a week - on - week decrease of 75.06, an increase of 512.17 compared to the end of last month, and a decrease of 264.73 compared to the same period [1]. - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 9,001.23, with a week - on - week decrease of 74.78, an increase of 151.37 compared to the end of last month, and a decrease of 171.81 compared to the same period [1]. Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrivals are 2,268.90, with a week - on - week decrease of 472.30, an increase of 239.80 compared to last month, and a decrease of 513.10 compared to the same period. The global 19 - port iron ore shipments are 3,516.40, with a week - on - week increase of 447.38, an increase of 128.05 compared to last month, and an increase of 505.50 compared to the same period [1]. Demand - The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 236.28, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.60, a decrease of 0.08 compared to last month, and an increase of 0.48 compared to the same period. The 45 - port average daily ore removal volume is 329.92, with a week - on - week increase of 2.97, an increase of 9.76 compared to last month, and an increase of 2.94 compared to the same period. The 247 steel mills' imported ore daily consumption is 291.68, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.95, an increase of 0.06 compared to last month, and a decrease of 0.93 compared to the same period. The weekly average of iron ore transactions at main ports is 75.08, with a week - on - week decrease of 30.88, a decrease of 7.10 compared to last month, and a decrease of 34.90 compared to the same period [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "oscillating", the intraday view is "oscillating and slightly stronger", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic is that the Fed has turned hawkish and the expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased. Also, the U.S. non - farm payroll data exceeded market expectations, initially leading to a positive market atmosphere but later a general decline in assets. [1][3] - For copper, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "strong", the intraday view is "oscillating and slightly stronger", and the reference view is "long - term bullish". The core logic is macro - level easing and mine - end production cuts. Additionally, after the U.S. September non - farm payroll data was released, market sentiment fluctuated, and the spot copper trading improved with a slight decrease in social inventory. [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Movement**: The market style switches frequently in the short - term. Initially, the market was optimistic with strong performance in stocks and commodities, but later assets showed a general decline. [3] - **Core Logic**: The U.S. non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, the U.S. economy was better than expected, the market's interest rate cut expectation increased, the U.S. dollar index declined, and the U.S. Treasury yield decreased. Technically, the support at the $4000 mark for New York gold and the 920 - yuan mark for Shanghai gold can be observed. [3] Copper (CU) - **Price Movement**: The copper price opened high and closed low last night, and the main contract price fell below the 86,000 - yuan mark. [4] - **Core Logic**: After the U.S. September non - farm payroll data was released, the market risk preference decreased. In the industry, the spot trading improved, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased slightly on Thursday. Technically, the support at the 86,000 - yuan mark should be noted. [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coils has changed. The production of plate steel mills has stabilized, supply has rebounded and is at a high level within the year with high inventory pressure. Demand has improved but the improvement space is limited due to unresolved downstream cold - rolling contradictions and stable external demand. The supply - demand pattern has improved slightly, inventory has been reduced again, but the supply pressure remains and demand resilience is doubtful. The fundamentals' improvement is limited, and the positive effect is weak. The relative advantage is the low valuation, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 316.01 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.35 tons, and a month - on - month decrease of 7.55 tons. The weekly output of cold - rolled coils is 84.53 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.57 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 1.44 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 88.58%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.22% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.03% [1] Demand - The apparent weekly demand for hot - rolled coils is 324.42 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10.83 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 7.47 tons. The downstream cold - rolling contradictions are not resolved, and the external demand is mainly stable, so the demand improvement space is limited [1] Inventory - The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 402.11 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.41 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 4.48 tons. The in - plant inventory is 78.02 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.50 tons and a month - on - month increase of 0.36 tons. The social inventory is 324.09 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.91 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 4.84 tons [1]