1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term soybean futures prices are expected to continue the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and the soybean meal and soybean oil futures prices are likely to maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend, while the palm oil futures prices are likely to show a volatile and downward - biased trend [6][9][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Calculation and Rating Criteria - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price of the current day to calculate the price change [3] - A decline of more than 1% is considered weak; a decline of 0 - 1% is volatile and weak; an increase of 0 - 1% is volatile and strong; an increase of more than 1% is strong [4] - The volatile and strong/weak viewpoints are only for intraday, without distinction between short - term and medium - term [5] 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Soybean Meal (M) - Intraday view: Volatile and strong; Medium - term view: Volatile; Reference view: Volatile and strong - Core logic: There are still risks in long - term supply. The procurement rhythm and cost in the fourth quarter are key variables for price trends. The short - term soybean futures prices maintain the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Under the suppression of oil - meal arbitrage funds, the short - term soybean meal futures prices are expected to continue the volatile and strong trend [6] 3.2.2 Soybean Oil (Y) - Intraday view: Volatile and strong; Medium - term view: Volatile; Reference view: Volatile and strong - Core logic: The domestic soybean oil market is boosted by the US soybean oil futures prices and supported by oil - meal arbitrage funds. Driven by the expected increase in raw material soybean costs, the short - term soybean oil futures prices lead the rise in the oil market, reaching a new stage high, and the market sentiment has clearly warmed up [9] 3.2.3 Palm Oil (P) - Intraday view: Volatile and weak; Medium - term view: Volatile; Reference view: Volatile and weak - Core logic: The overall oil market is strengthening, with soybean oil and palm oil taking turns to lead the rise. The expected decline in Southeast Asian palm oil supply drives the market sentiment. The palm oil futures prices reach a new stage high, but are greatly affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the high - level fluctuations caused by capital inflows and outflows [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 6, 2025, all stock indices fluctuated and rose, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 leading the gains. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1.7591 trillion yuan, an increase of 143.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Due to the easing of external risk factors and the resilience of domestic economic data, the bearish drive was weak, and the risk preference in the stock market was at a relatively high level. The trading volume in the stock market exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan, indicating that investors' risk preference was actively optimistic. The margin trading balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan, and margin trading funds continued to have net purchases, reflecting strong confidence of investors in the stock market. Although the expectation of short - term policy intensification has weakened, the expectation of policy support still exists. In general, the risk preference of stock market investors is actively optimistic in the short term, and the stock indices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]. - The implied volatility of options is currently in the normal range. Considering the long - term upward trend of stock indices, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads for a mild bullish view [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On August 6, 2025, 50ETF rose 0.21% to 2.918; SSE 300ETF rose 0.26% to 4.194; SZSE 300ETF rose 0.25% to 4.326; CSI 300 Index rose 0.24% to 4113.49; CSI 1000 Index rose 1.09% to 6861.31; SSE 500ETF rose 0.82% to 6.428; SZSE 500ETF rose 0.98% to 2.570; ChiNext ETF rose 0.69% to 2.336; Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.24% to 2.907; SSE 50 Index rose 0.24% to 2797.42; Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 0.36% to 1.11; E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 0.46% to 1.09 [6]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on August 6, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous day are provided in detail, including 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 Index options, Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF options, and E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF options [7]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in August 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are provided, including 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 Index options, Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF options, and E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF options [8][9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Include charts of SSE 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility for different terms [10][11][13][14][17][19]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts of SSE 300ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility for different terms [22][23][24]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts of SZSE 300ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility for different terms [25][26][27]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include charts of CSI 300 Index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility for different terms [38][39][40]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Include charts of CSI 1000 Index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility for different terms [51][52][54]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of SSE 500ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility for different terms [65][66][67]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of SZSE 500ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility for different terms [78][79][81]. - **ChiNext ETF Options**: Include charts of ChiNext ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility for different terms [93][94][97]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Include charts of Shenzhen 100ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility for different terms [105][106][107]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include charts of SSE 50 Index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility for different terms [118][119][121]. - **Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Options**: Include charts of Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility for different terms [132][133][134]. - **E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Options**: Include charts of E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility for different terms [135][136][137].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. Core Views - **沪铜**: The Shanghai copper futures showed a strong and volatile trend today with a continuous decline in open interest. The domestic macro - environment is favorable, while the overseas situation is poor. Recent US economic data has continuously fallen short of expectations, and there is a need to be cautious about overseas recession trading. On the industrial side, the upstream maintains high production, and with the downstream in the off - season, demand is marginally weakening, and electrolytic copper inventories tend to rise. Technically, attention should be paid to the technical support at the 78,000 level [5]. - **沪铝**: The Shanghai aluminum futures increased in open interest and rose today, with the main contract price breaking through the 20,600 mark. The domestic macro - environment has warmed up, and as aluminum has a strong domestic pricing ability, the price has risen significantly. In the industrial aspect, in the off - season, aluminum rods are showing a stockpiling trend, and electrolytic aluminum is also stockpiling. With the macro - environment warming up and the industry being bearish, the futures price is expected to run strongly [6]. - **沪镍**: The Shanghai nickel futures decreased in open interest and rose today, and the main contract price broke through the 121,000 mark. The domestic environment was favorable today, and the non - ferrous metal sector generally showed a strong trend. The open interest of nickel has been continuously decreasing, indicating a strong willingness of short - sellers to close their positions. Technically, attention should be paid to the technical support at the 120,000 level [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 6, according to SMM, the PT Gresik smelter in Indonesia entered maintenance due to an oxygen supply equipment failure, with a maintenance period of about 2 - 4 weeks. The annual production of this smelter is about 300,000 tons, and the estimated impact on production is about 20,000 tons. On August 4, Sichuan Province recently issued the "Several Opinions on Deeply Promoting a New Round of Mineral Exploration Breakthrough Strategic Action to Promote High - quality Development of the Mining Industry" [9]. - **Aluminum**: According to SMM statistics, on August 6, the daily social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 31,219 tons, a decrease of 63 tons from the previous trading day and a decrease of 8 tons from last Wednesday (July 30). On August 5, according to SMM statistics, in terms of the two - place inventory of domestic aluminum rods, the inventory of aluminum rods in Guangdong was 58,500 tons, and that in Wuxi was 34,000 tons, with a total of 92,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons [9]. - **Nickel**: On August 6, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2509 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2,300 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,450 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was + 500 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,650 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was + 3,300 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,450 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was + 2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,700 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc. [11][13][14] - **Aluminum**: Charts cover aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, aluminum month - spread, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, etc. [24][26][28] - **Nickel**: Charts consist of nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [37][40][41]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract futures price fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.75%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The market sentiment has warmed up, but the supply - demand pattern is weak, so the steel price is still under pressure. However, the low - inventory situation limits the downside space. It is expected to continue the fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract futures price showed a strong - side fluctuation, with a daily increase of 0.41%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Although the fundamentals have weakened under the situation of increasing supply and demand, production - restriction disturbances are fermenting, the real - world contradictions are not significant, and raw materials are relatively strong. The price is expected to continue the upward - fluctuating trend, and overseas risks should be monitored [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract futures price fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.06%, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. The demand for ore has certain resilience, supporting the high - level operation of ore prices, but the supply is increasing, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. It is predicted to continue the high - level oscillatory consolidation, and the performance of finished products should be watched [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - **Automobile industry**: The Passenger Car Association slightly raised the industry's annual forecast. Passenger car retail sales are expected to reach 24.35 million units in 2025, a 6% increase year - on - year, and the forecast volume is 300,000 units more than the June forecast. From January to June, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars and new - energy passenger cars increased by 10.8% and 33.3% respectively [6]. - **Global manufacturing**: In July, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, showing weak operation. The Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, remaining above 50% for three consecutive months and continuing to support global economic recovery [7]. - **Steel industry**: In late July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.8 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons, a 7.4% decrease from the previous period; 20.41 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 185,600 tons, a 4.5% decrease; and 23 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 209,100 tons, a 0.5% increase [8]. Spot Market - **Steel products**: The national average prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) and hot - rolled coil (4.75mm) were 3,404 yuan/ton and 3,496 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of Tangshan billet (Q235) and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) were 3,090 yuan/ton and 2,140 yuan/ton respectively. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 130 yuan/ton, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,200 yuan/ton [9]. - **Iron ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 776 yuan/ton, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 752 yuan/ton. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 9.65 yuan/ton and 23.64 yuan/ton respectively. The SGX swap (current month) was 101.91, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 101.65 [9]. Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,234 | 0.75 | 1,202,766 | - 377,887 | 1,652,569 | - 56,263 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3,451 | 0.41 | 561,631 | - 173,827 | 1,460,175 | - 1,559 | | Iron ore | 794.5 | - 0.06 | 208,804 | 10,737 | 358,293 | - 26,208 | [13] Relevant Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2021 - 2025 [16][18][22]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, including seasonal inventory and inventory changes [21][25][27]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts present the blast - furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building - material independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills [30][32][33]. 后市研判 (Translated as Future Outlook) - **Rebar**: Supply and demand have both weakened. Production is weakly stable, with weekly output decreasing slightly by 0.90 tons. Demand has also declined, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 13.17 tons. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and inventory changes should be monitored [38]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply has increased with the resumption of production after maintenance, and there is room for further growth. Demand has certain resilience, but there are concerns about external demand. The price is expected to continue to rise with fluctuations, and overseas risks should be noted [39]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern has weakened, with a decline in terminal consumption. However, the profitability of steel mills is good, so the demand has certain resilience. The supply is increasing steadily. The price is expected to continue high - level oscillatory consolidation, and the performance of finished products should be watched [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 6, the coke futures market showed a strong performance. The main contract closed at 1,644.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.95%. The market was affected by the news of anti - involution in the coal industry. Although the coke supply stabilized and demand decreased slightly this week, the improvement in the profitability of downstream steel mills and the resilience of hot metal production supported the market. Overall, the coke fundamentals changed little, and the futures are expected to continue to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the supply dynamics of coking coal [5][34]. - On August 6, the coking coal futures market also performed strongly. The main contract closed at 1,221 points, with an intraday increase of 6.45%. The market was affected by the continuous disturbances of over - production inspections in Shanxi. This week, the supply - demand situation of coking coal remained unchanged, with a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The medium - and long - term supply contraction expectation dominated the market. It is expected that the coking coal futures will maintain a strong operation in the near future, and attention should be paid to the subsequent supply - side dynamics [6][35]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In late July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.8 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons, a 7.4% decrease compared to the previous period; 20.41 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.856 million tons, a 4.5% decrease; and 23 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.091 million tons, a 0.5% increase [8]. - On August 6, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) being 1,500 yuan/ton (cash and tax included) [9]. Spot Market - Coke: The latest quoted price of the flat - price index of quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, a 3.52% week - on - week increase; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,400 yuan/ton, a 1.41% week - on - week decrease [5][10][34]. - Coking Coal: The latest quoted price of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1,150 yuan/ton, a 0.86% week - on - week decrease, with the futures warehouse receipt cost approximately 1,126 yuan/ton. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port decreased by 4.58% week - on - week to 1,460 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanxi - produced coking coal remained unchanged at 1,650 yuan/ton [6][10][35]. Futures Market - Coke: The main contract closed at 1,644.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.95%. The trading volume was 28,565 lots, a decrease of 3,994 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest was 23,184 lots, a decrease of 2,491 lots compared to the previous day [14]. - Coking Coal: The main contract closed at 1,221 points, with an intraday increase of 6.45%. The trading volume was 2,622,048 lots, an increase of 127,202 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest was 603,612 lots, an increase of 77,321 lots compared to the previous day [14]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory, coking coal inventory, domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and bar procurement volume, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation, which reflect the historical data changes of relevant indicators from 2019 - 2025 [15][21][27]. Market Outlook - Coke: The market is affected by the news of anti - involution in the coal industry. Although the supply - demand fundamentals have certain pressure, the market sentiment has improved, and it is expected to continue to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the supply dynamics of coking coal [5][34]. - Coking Coal: Affected by over - production inspections in Shanxi, the market atmosphere has warmed up. With the medium - and long - term supply contraction expectation, it is expected to maintain a strong operation in the near future. Attention should be paid to the subsequent supply - side dynamics [6][35].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货窄幅整理 核心观点 今日各国债期货均呈现冲高回落走势，整体表现为窄幅震荡整理。由于 市场利率接近政策利率，货币政策适度宽松的主基调不变，因此 8 月以来市 场利率有所回落，国债期货表现为探底回升。另一方面，目前股债跷跷板效 应明显，股市风险偏好快速上升，债市需求受到抑制，制约国债期货的反弹 空间。总的来说，短期内国债期货震荡整理为主。 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 6 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 4 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免 ...

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 能攻能守 宝城期货 陈栋 古之兵法，攻守相宜，期货投资亦如是。 春秋时期，管仲辅佐齐桓公，通工商之业，便鱼盐之利，齐国遂称雄。此乃善用资源，以攻为守之策。 期货交易亦当如管仲治国，洞察市场趋势，把握时机，以攻取利。然攻守之道，非一成不变。三国时期， 诸葛亮初出茅庐，曹仁进犯，首战新野，火烧博望坡，此乃以攻为守，出奇制胜。期货交易亦当于市场波 动之中，寻得突破之机，以攻取利。 攻守之道，亦需谨慎。晋楚城濮之战，晋文公退避三舍，以守为攻，终败楚军。期货交易者亦当于市 场动荡之时，保持冷静，以守为攻，静待时机成熟，再行出击。唐太宗李世民，治国有方，善于用人，以 文治武功，开创贞观之治。期货投资者也应有远见卓识，洞察市场全局，把握趋势，方能立于不败之地。 《孙子兵法》有云："善战者，求之于势，不责于人。"攻，首在择时。李悝为魏文侯作"平籴法"，丰 年储粮，荒年发之，以平物价。期货交易亦当遵循"高抛低吸"之理，不可贪胜而忘危。守，在于控险。期 货交易如用兵，胜负系于风险之控制。项羽百战百胜，却因逞匹夫之勇，兵败垓下，于乌江自刎；刘邦屡 败屡战，却终成帝业。何也？盖因项羽恃勇轻敌，不知退守；刘邦忍辱负 ...

1. Macro Data Overview - GDP in Q2 2025 grew 5.2% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7% [1] - In July 2025, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and 49.4% in the same period last year [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI for business activities in July 2025 was 50.1%, lower than the previous month's 50.5% but similar to the same period last year's 50.2% [1] - In June 2025, the year-on-year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.0%, 4.6%, and 8.3% respectively, with M1 showing a significant increase compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - In June 2025, the year-on-year growth rates of exports and imports were 5.9% and 1.1% respectively, with exports accelerating and imports turning positive [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - In July 2025, the national futures market volume was 1.059 billion lots, with a turnover of 71.31 trillion yuan, up 48.89% and 36.03% year-on-year respectively [2] - In H1 2025, the number of new futures customers in the market was 410,000, a 2.5% increase from the same period last year. By the end of June 2025, the total number of effective customers reached 2.61 million, a record high [2] - The China Futures Association is seeking public comments on the "Management Rules for Unfair Competition in Futures Company Brokerage Business" [2] 2.2 Metals - As the Fed's rate cut expectations rise, gold has regained institutional favor. Citi raised its three - month gold price forecast to $3,500 per ounce [4] - On August 4, copper inventory reached a two - month high, zinc inventory hit an 18 - month low, and nickel inventory reached a four - year high [5] - Trump excluded refined copper from the 50% tariff list, leading to a surge in LME copper inventory [6] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Hebei steel mills raised the purchase price of coke by 50 - 55 yuan/ton [7] - Brazilian iron ore exports in H1 2025 were 185.9 million tons, a 3.8% increase year - on - year [7] - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry announced its procurement prices for the first half of August, with increases for various products [8] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The NDRC and the National Energy Administration issued a guidance on improving the natural gas pipeline transportation price mechanism [9] - The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products issued a photovoltaic industry initiative to resist unfair competition [9] - Non - OPEC oil supply growth is expected to peak in early 2026, while demand remains strong [10] 2.5 Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs allocated 455 million yuan for agricultural disaster relief [12] - The State Administration of Grain and Material Reserves approved the launch of the minimum purchase price plan for wheat in Jiangsu [12] - Japan plans to shift its rice policy from production suppression to production increase in fiscal year 2027 [12] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On August 5, the central bank conducted 160.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 288.5 billion yuan [14] 3.2 Key News - The State Council executive meeting proposed consumer loan and service industry business loan discount policies [15] - Seven departments including the central bank issued a guidance on financial support for new industrialization [15] - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors required enterprises to disclose semi - annual reports by August 31 [15] - Inner Mongolia has exited the list of high - risk debt regions, and Ningxia and Jilin are also working on exiting [16] - In the past seven months, the top 100 real estate developers' land acquisition amount increased by over 30% year - on - year [16] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - After the short - term shock of VAT resumption, the bond market showed a narrow - range and slightly bullish trend [19] - The central bank's liquidity injection is expected to remain reasonable and abundant, and the money market interest rates are likely to stay at low levels [24] - European and US bond yields showed mixed trends [22] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1876 on August 5, down 110 basis points from the previous trading day [23] - The US dollar index rose 0.01% in New York trading, and most non - US currencies rose [23] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - Xingzheng Fixed Income recommends focusing on the participation value of secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds of some regional city and rural commercial banks [24] - Xingzheng Fixed Income believes that the convertible bond market has the potential to break through, and the low - price convertible bond strategy space has narrowed [24] - Yangtze River Fixed Income expects the central bank to continue to support the money market in August [24] 3.6 Today's Reminders - On August 6, 179 bonds will be listed, 146 bonds will be issued, 104 bonds will be paid, and 108 bonds will pay principal and interest [27] 4. Stock Market Key News - The regulatory authorities are cracking down on third - party companies that provide substantial fraud services for listed companies [28] - On August 5, the A - share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high for the year [29] - The Hong Kong stock market also rose, and southbound funds had a large - scale net purchase [29] - Chinese assets are attracting foreign capital inflows, and the number of QFII - held stocks and their market value have increased [29] - In July, the number of private securities funds filed for registration reached a new high in nearly 27 months [30]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory, and an intraday trend of oscillatory strength. The price of methanol is affected by coal price rebound and its own supply - demand structure [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - The short - term trend of methanol 2509 is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and slightly stronger, with an overall view of running strongly [1]. - On Tuesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.46% to 2392 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend on Wednesday [5]. Driving Logic - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, and downstream demand is in the off - season, leading to a downward shift in the price center [5]. - The rebound of domestic coal futures prices drives the methanol futures 2509 contract to show an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend [5].

Report Overview - The report provides an analysis of the short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlooks for Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures, along with their core driving logics [1][5][7] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run in a relatively strong manner, with intraday views of being oscillating and strong, and medium - term views of being oscillating [1][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Medium - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Intraday**: Oscillating and strong [1] - **Reference View**: Relatively strong operation [1] - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The Southeast Asian rubber - tapping season and continuous new rubber output in domestic production areas lead to high supply pressure. The domestic downstream auto market is in the off - season with insufficient demand. After a previous sharp decline, negative sentiment is released. On Tuesday night, the RU 2601 contract oscillated and stabilized, with the price rising slightly by 0.52% to 15,460 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Wednesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Medium - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Intraday**: Oscillating and strong [1] - **Reference View**: Relatively strong operation [1] - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the synthetic rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The domestic synthetic rubber plant load is stable, resulting in continuous supply pressure. The domestic downstream auto market is in the off - season with insufficient demand. After a previous sharp decline, negative sentiment is released. On Tuesday night, the synthetic rubber futures oscillated and stabilized, with the price rising slightly by 0.09% to 11,470 yuan/ton. It is expected that the BR 2509 contract will maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Wednesday [7]