时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 需求韧性强劲，矿价偏强运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 观点参考 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 市场情绪偏暖，矿价强势上行，且铁矿石基本面相对良好，淡季钢厂复产积极，矿石终端消耗再 度回升，且增幅尚可，而目前钢厂盈利状况表现良好，矿石需求韧性较强，继续给予 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and reference views for the TL2509 variety are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation weakening". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loosely biased, but the possibility of a short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the financial futures stock index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the domestic macro - economic outlook is positive, with the first - half economic data showing resilience and the second - half pressure on stable growth reduced. There are a large number of central bank reverse repurchases maturing this week, causing market interest rates to rise. Considering the anchoring effect of policy rates, the upward space for market interest rates is limited. A loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, but the short - term possibility is low, and the downward space for interest rates is also limited. So, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation weakening", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loosely biased, but the short - term possibility of an interest rate cut is low [1]. 2. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back yesterday, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures having the largest decline. The domestic macro - economic outlook is positive, the first - half economic data shows resilience, and the second - half pressure on stable growth is reduced. There are a large number of central bank reverse repurchases maturing this week, causing market interest rates to rise. Considering the anchoring effect of policy rates, the upward space for market interest rates is limited. A loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, but the short - term possibility is low, and the downward space for interest rates is also limited. So, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate in the short term [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and copper, suggesting a short - term bullish outlook for both metals [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: New York gold has again exceeded the $3400 mark, and Shanghai gold has exceeded the 785 yuan mark. Since July, the US dollar index has rebounded and showed a high - level decline yesterday, facing pressure at the 60 - day moving average [3]. - **Viewpoints**: Short - term view is upward, medium - term is sideways, and intraday is sideways - bullish. The overall reference view is short - term bullish [1][3]. - **Core Logic**: The decline of the US dollar is beneficial to the gold price. As the Fed's interest - rate meeting on July 30 and the important US tariff time point on August 1 approach, market risk appetite may decline. Technically, gold has broken through the sideways high since July with strong upward momentum [1][3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Last Friday night, Shanghai copper increased positions and rose, with the main contract price exceeding the 79,000 yuan mark. On Monday, it continued to increase positions and rise during the day, approaching the 80,000 yuan mark and maintaining a strong performance at night. The monthly spread of Shanghai copper has been weakening, in line with the macro - market feature of near - term weakness and far - term strength [5]. - **Viewpoints**: Short - term view is upward, medium - term is upward, and intraday is upward. The overall reference view is short - term bullish [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: After the market digested the impact of US tariffs, the improvement of domestic and international macro - economies has pushed up the copper price. Good US economic data last Thursday and the upcoming release of a growth - stabilization plan for ten key industries in China have led to a general rise in commodities. On the industrial level, with the continuous emergence of domestic macro - positives, industrial expectations may improve, and the inventory of electrolytic copper decreased significantly on Monday [1][5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is a rise, the medium - term view is a strong - biased oscillation, and the intraday view is a weak - biased oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the optimistic sentiment persists and the steel price oscillates upwards [2]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is still prone to pressure during the off - season, but the current industrial contradictions are not significant. The expectation of policy benefits boosts market sentiment, and the strong raw materials provide cost support, so the steel price continues the oscillatory upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, short - term is rising, medium - term is strong - biased oscillation, intraday is weak - biased oscillation. The view is to pay attention to the MA5 line support, with the core logic of persistent optimistic sentiment and rising steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The optimistic sentiment persists and the steel price rises strongly. The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. The production of construction steel mills weakens, the rebar output declines continuously, and the supply contracts. However, the profit per ton of the variety is good and some varieties start to switch production, so the positive effect is not strong [3]. - The rebar demand also weakens. The high - frequency demand indicators remain at the low level in the same period in recent years, showing obvious off - season characteristics. The downstream industries have not improved, and the weak demand is likely to put pressure on the steel price [3]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is still prone to pressure during the off - season, but the current industrial contradictions are not significant. The expectation of policy benefits boosts market sentiment, and the strong raw materials provide cost support, so the steel price continues the oscillatory upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on the stock index futures is that they are expected to rise, with a short - term outlook of oscillating strongly and a medium - term outlook of rising. The main driving force is the policy - driven positive expectations, but the upward momentum may slow down later due to potential capital rotation [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is rising. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties IF, IH, IC, and IM have an intraday view of oscillating strongly, a medium - term view of rising, and an overall reference view of rising. The main rebound momentum comes from policy - driven positive expectations. The trading volume of the stock market is at a high level, indicating positive investor risk preference. However, since late June, some stocks have risen significantly, and potential capital rotation may slow down the upward momentum of the stock index. In the short - term, the stock index will run with a strong oscillation [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the price trends and driving factors of several agricultural commodity futures, including soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil. It provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on these varieties [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are "strong", and the intraday view is "oscillating strongly". The reference view is also "oscillating strongly" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The weather in US soybean - producing areas is favorable, putting pressure on US soybean futures prices. The soybean meal futures price shows a pattern of being stronger in the domestic market than in the international market. The forward purchase of soybeans in China is still slow, and the supply pressure at present has not been transmitted to the forward months, with forward supply remaining tight. Under the high - operating - rate of oil mills, the soybean meal inventory has been rising for 10 consecutive weeks, and the negative basis of soybean meal persists. In the short term, the supply expectation of soybean meal futures dominates, with futures stronger than spot and stronger than US soybeans, and the rebound continues [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: The intraday view is "oscillating weakly", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating weakly" [7]. - **Core Logic**: The oil market shows a trend of rising and then falling due to the decline in international oil prices. Palm oil leads the rise in the oil sector, indicating that the rebound of the oil sector reflects the energy attribute of oils. Supported by the positive expectations of biodiesel demand in the US and Indonesia, the energy demand support for palm oil and soybean oil futures prices remains strong. In the short term, the palm oil futures price may turn to oscillating operation due to the fluctuation of international oil prices [7]. Soybean Oil - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly". The reference view is also "oscillating weakly" [6]. - **Core Logic**: The influencing factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the thermal coal market is expected to maintain a relatively strong performance in the near term. The positive fundamentals and news during the peak season have created a synergy, driving coal prices upward. The market may gradually shift from a supply - surplus situation to a balanced supply - demand pattern while ensuring energy supply security [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Supply - Recent strict environmental inspections in the Lvliang Zhongyang area have led to the shutdown of one coal mine on July 18 due to gangue treatment issues, and three other mines are still in a state of shutdown or production reduction due to underground production problems [4]. Demand - As of July 10, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces reached 2.148 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 61,000 tons; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.551 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 95,000 tons. The demand for thermal coal during the peak season is well - supported, and the atmosphere at the mine mouth is improving [4]. Inventory - As of July 17, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 26.985 million tons, with a slight weekly decrease of 34,000 tons. The inventory is 1.151 million tons higher than the same period last year, reaching a five - year high, indicating sufficient coal stocks [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term view of consolidation and an intraday view of a slight upward consolidation [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Market Conditions - After a significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has increased, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract slightly rose 0.41% to 513.2 yuan/barrel on the night of last Friday [5]. Market Logic - Although eight major oil - producing countries in OPEC and non - OPEC decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, as the negative impact of increased production is digested and the original production - increase plan of oil - producing countries is gradually realized, the room for further production expansion in the future is limited [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and intraday trends being oscillatory and strong [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and strong. The reference view is to run strongly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: After the previous bearish expectations were gradually digested, the Shanghai rubber futures price entered an oscillatory recovery trend. The sixth typhoon this year is expected to hit Hainan Island and Leizhou Peninsula, increasing the expectation of domestic natural rubber production reduction and boosting the rubber price. On the night of last Friday, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong trend, with the price slightly rising 0.27% to 14,880 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain this trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and strong. The reference view is to run strongly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: After the rubber price callback digested bearish factors, combined with the recent stabilization and rebound of domestic and international crude oil futures prices, the Shanghai rubber futures continued the bullish upward trend. On the night of last Friday, the 2509 contract of synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong trend, with the price rising 1.41% to 11,840 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain this trend on Monday [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 煤炭期价反弹，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 晨会纪要 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-07-21 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：国内甲醇产能持续释放，内部供应压力有增无减。叠加海外船货不断到港，外部供应预 期逐渐增大，港口迎来累库周期，而下游需求则步入淡季，供需结构趋于宽松。在经历前期 ...