1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2601 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the current situation is weak, and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - In a situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. However, the strong raw materials provide cost support. It is expected that rebar will continue the weakly volatile operation, and the demand performance should be noted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are "volatile", "volatile", and "weakly volatile" respectively. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logical summary is that the current pattern is weak, and steel prices operate under pressure [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, the spot price of steel decreased slightly, and the trading volume was average. Both the supply and demand sides of rebar increased. The production of construction steel mills was active, the output returned to a high level, and the inventory was high, increasing the supply pressure. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar improved seasonally, and high - frequency demand indicators continued to rise, but it was still at a low level in the same period in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved, and the sustainability is questionable. In conclusion, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially in a situation of increasing supply and demand. The steel price is still under pressure, and the positive factor is the cost support brought by strong raw materials. It is expected that rebar will continue the weakly volatile operation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For gold, short - term and medium - term views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward trend". The reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic is the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the Fed's hawkish stance [1][3]. - For copper, short - term and medium - term views are "rising", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward trend". The reference view is "long - term bullish". The core logic is macro - economic easing, mine production cuts, and a rapid increase in capital attention [1][4]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Trend**: Last week, the gold price oscillated downward. After the Fed's October interest - rate meeting, the price rebounded. After the APEC Sino - US summit, the precious metals market showed a rebound trend [3]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, in line with market expectations. However, internal policy differences and Powell's cautious attitude towards subsequent rate cuts were interpreted as hawkish, reducing the market's expectation of a December rate cut. The Sino - US tariff relaxation policies after the APEC summit also affected the market. Technically, short - term attention is on the $4000 level for the long - short game. On November 1st, new gold tax policies were announced, with more refined tax management for on - exchange gold trading, mainly affecting institutions and enterprises [3]. Copper (CU) - **Price Trend**: Last week, the copper price rose and then fell, with a narrowing amplitude and a decline in open interest. After the Fed's October interest - rate meeting, LME copper dropped significantly. After the APEC Sino - US summit, the copper market showed a "buy - on - rumor, sell - on - news" trend [4]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's rate cut of 25 basis points in October was in line with expectations, but the hawkish signals cooled the rate - cut expectation, which was negative for copper prices. The short - term sharp rise in copper prices led to pressure at historical highs, increasing the willingness of long - position holders to close positions. Technically, continuous attention is on the support of the 10 - day moving average [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively presents macro - economic data, commodity investment trends, financial news, and stock market information. It shows that the economy has both positive and negative factors, such as the mixed performance of PMI data, the upward trend of some metal prices, and the complex situation in the energy and agricultural markets. At the same time, various policy regulations and market reforms are also underway, which will have an impact on different sectors [1][2][5][16]. Summary by Directory Macro Data Overview - In Q3 2025, GDP growth at constant prices was 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter's 5.2%. In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1]. - In September 2025, M1 and M2 growth rates were 7.2% and 8.4% year - on - year respectively, with M1 significantly higher than the previous year's - 3.3%. The CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, and the PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year [1]. - In September 2025, exports and imports increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively, showing strong foreign trade performance [1]. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - In October 2025, China's official manufacturing PMI declined, while the non - manufacturing PMI entered the expansion range. In 2026, the export quota management of phosphate rock and silver will be suspended, and export license management will be implemented [2]. - The soybean meal and corn series option contracts of the Dalian Commodity Exchange will be listed for trading on February 2, 2026. The China Futures Association has issued the "Futures Market - Making Transaction Business Management Rules" [2]. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Tax Administration have issued a gold tax policy, exempting value - added tax for standard gold transactions on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange under certain conditions [3]. Metals - London's basic metals mostly rose. Due to the tight supply of copper ore and the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, copper prices are on an upward trend. The price of LME copper has reached a record high [5]. - In Q3 2025, the global gold demand reached 1313 tons, a 3% year - on - year increase, and the demand value soared 44% to $146 billion, both hitting single - quarter records [5]. - As of October 30, 2025, the aluminum, tin, and nickel inventories in the London Metal Exchange reached new highs, while the lead inventory reached a new low [6]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's steel production and consumption continued to decline, with the decline in consumption greater than that in production. The average CSPI in the first three quarters was 93.6 points, a 9.64% year - on - year decrease [7]. - As of October 27, 2025, the coal inventory of national unified - regulated power plants was 2.2 billion tons, sufficient for over 35 days. The underground gas storage has completed the annual gas injection task [8]. Energy and Chemicals - The main contract of US crude oil rose. OPEC + members are inclined to slightly increase oil production in December. Turkey's refineries are buying more non - Russian oil [10]. - In October 2025, Russia's pipeline natural gas exports to Europe increased by 5% month - on - month, and its LNG exports in October increased by 21% [10]. Agricultural Products - In October 2025, Ukraine's grain exports decreased from 3.7 million tons in October 2024 to 2.5 million tons. The US Department of Agriculture will release multiple key agricultural reports in November [13][14]. - Poland will maintain the import ban on some Ukrainian agricultural products [14]. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On October 31, 2025, the central bank conducted 355.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 187.1 billion yuan on that day. This week, 2.068 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [15]. Important News and Information - The central bank governor proposed to optimize the basic currency issuance mechanism and the intermediate variables of monetary policy. The finance minister pointed out that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will be used to boost consumption and resolve local government debt [16][17]. - The National Development and Reform Commission allocated 200 billion yuan of new special bond quotas from the 500 billion yuan local government debt balance limit. The National Bureau of Statistics released the October PMI data [17]. - The CSRC and the Asset Management Association of China solicited opinions on the guidelines for the performance comparison benchmarks of public funds, aiming to standardize the performance comparison benchmarks of public funds [18]. Bond Market Summary - The sentiment in the inter - bank bond market was positive, with long - term bonds performing better. The prices of treasury bond futures rose, and the yields of secondary and perpetual bonds declined [23]. - In the exchange bond market, some bonds such as "23 Tai Cai Yuan" rose significantly, while some bonds such as "25 Gong Tou 1A" fell [24]. Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1135 on October 31, 2025, down 28 basis points from the previous trading day. The US dollar index rose 0.18% [28]. Research Report Highlights - Xingzheng Fixed - Income analyzed the convertible bond holdings of fixed - income + funds in Q3 2025, indicating that the proportion of convertible bonds held by public funds continued to reach new highs, but the overall position of fixed - income + products decreased [29]. - CITIC Securities believed that the expansion of the pilot area for pension wealth management products to the whole country will promote the improvement of the multi - level pension insurance system [29]. Stock Market Important News - After the Shanghai Composite Index exceeded 4000 points, the A - share market fluctuated and adjusted last week. Institutions suggest investors start to layout low - valued sectors with expected profit recovery [33]. - As of October 31, 2025, 5446 domestic listed companies disclosed their Q3 reports, with a total operating income of 53.46 trillion yuan and a net profit of 4.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.36% and 5.5% respectively [33]. - Many foreign - funded public funds have performed well this year, and fund managers are still optimistic about the allocation value of high - quality technology, manufacturing, and resource - related assets in the fourth quarter [34][35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) 2601 and synthetic rubber (BR) 2601 are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and weakly oscillatory respectively, and the intraday trend also being weakly oscillatory [1][5][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Contents Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On the night of last Friday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained a weakly oscillatory trend, with the futures price slightly down 1.05% to 15090 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: After the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents in Busan, South Korea, the positive progress in economic and trade tariffs was slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment was digested, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and the market showed profit - taking. It is expected that the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract may maintain a weakly oscillatory trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On the night of last Friday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2601 contract showed a weak downward trend, with the futures price significantly down 2.21% to 10405 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, after the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents, the progress in economic and trade tariffs was slightly lower than expected. As the macro - positive sentiment was digested, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and the market showed profit - taking. The market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated", and investors' sentiment has become cautious. It is expected that the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2601 contract may maintain a weakly oscillatory trend on Monday [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is slightly bullish, and the medium - term view is slightly bearish, with a reference view of strong operation [5] - It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract may maintain a slightly bullish trend on Monday [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price and Market Performance - On the night of last Friday, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract maintained a slightly bullish trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.91% to 463.6 yuan/barrel [5] Driving Logic - After the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents in Busan, South Korea, positive progress was made in economic and trade tariffs, but the overall results were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - bullish sentiment was digested, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and the market showed profit - taking [5] - Due to the US increasing troops in the Caribbean Sea over the weekend, threatening Venezuela and escalating the South American geopolitical conflict, the international crude oil premium was boosted, which hedged geopolitical risks to a certain extent [5]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the stock index futures morning report of Baocheng Futures on November 3, 2025, covering the financial futures stock index sector [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - Not provided Group 3: Core Views - The short - term view of IH2512 is shock, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is shock - biased - strong, and the overall view is wide - range shock. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking willingness of funds and the expectation of policy benefits [1] - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is shock - biased - strong, the medium - term view is rising, and the reference view is wide - range shock. The core logic is that the future trend depends on the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy benefit expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of funds, and the stock index will mainly show wide - range shock in the short term [4] Group 4: Summary by Related Content Variety View Reference - For IH2512, short - term: shock; medium - term: rising; intraday: shock - biased - strong; view reference: wide - range shock; core logic: the game between the profit - taking willingness of funds and the expectation of policy benefits [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - On Friday, the stock indexes showed shock and differentiation, with only IM slightly rising and others falling. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2464.3 billion yuan, an increase of 173.6 billion yuan from the previous day. The trading volume continued to increase, and there were more falling stocks than rising ones, indicating rising fear of high prices and increased profit - taking willingness of funds. With the marginal decrease of the impact of the mitigation of external uncertainties and less incremental policy expectations in November, the increase in stock valuation has led to increased profit - taking demand, and the stock index needs a technical adjustment. The future trend depends on the game between policy benefit expectations and profit - taking rhythms, and the stock index will mainly be in wide - range shock in the short term [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Coke: As of the week ending October 31, the total daily coke output of all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.108 million tons, with a slight weekly increase of 800 tons. After the second round of coke price hikes, the profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 32 yuan/ton, a weekly improvement of 9 yuan but still in a loss state. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.3636 million tons, a significant weekly decrease of 35,400 tons per day, and the profitability rate dropped by 2.6 percentage points to 45.02%. Coke supply stabilized while demand declined, but due to the Sino - US summit and improved market sentiment, coke futures remained at a high level [6][35]. - Coking coal: As of the week ending October 31, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 758,000 tons, a slight weekly decrease of 3,000 tons per day. From October 20th to 25th, the total customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the 288 port was 4,814 vehicles, a weekly decrease of 2,406 vehicles. The port has now returned to normal with a daily clearance of about 1,200 vehicles. The total daily coke output of all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.108 million tons, with a slight weekly increase of 800 tons. The supply - demand pattern of coking coal had no significant change, and the upward drive came from macro - level benefits of Sino - US trade relations and strong expectations of supply due to safety supervision and anti - involution [7][36]. Summary by Directory Industry News - China Iron and Steel Association: In the first three quarters, China's steel exports increased year - on - year, but the pressure and risks also increased as the global trade environment tightened [9]. - Mongolia's ETT Company: On October 31, it held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking clean coal was $95.7/ton, up $5.3/ton from the previous auction on September 25th. All 19,200 tons were sold at $117.7/ton, up $17.3/ton from the previous auction [10]. Spot Market - Coke: The current price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port's FOB was 1,570 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.29%, a monthly increase of 6.80%, and an annual decrease of 7.10%. At Qingdao Port's ex - warehouse, it was 1,560 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.70%, a monthly increase of 6.85%, and an annual decrease of 3.70% [11]. - Coking coal: The current price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,390 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 6.11%, a monthly increase of 8.59%, and an annual increase of 17.80%. Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,660 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.22%, a monthly increase of 3.11%, and an annual increase of 11.41%. Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,740 yuan/ton, with no weekly change, a monthly increase of 1.75%, and an annual increase of 13.73% [11]. Futures Market - Coke: The closing price of the active contract was 1,777.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.11%. The highest price was 1,818.5 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,770.0 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 20,417, an increase of 935, and the open interest was 39,453, a decrease of 289 [14]. - Coking coal: The closing price of the active contract was 1,286.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.92%. The highest price was 1,318.0 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,276.0 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 1,034,091, a decrease of 25,967, and the open interest was 673,751, a decrease of 18,594 [14]. 后市 Judgment - Coke: The supply of coke stabilized while demand declined, but due to the Sino - US summit and improved market sentiment, coke futures remained at a high level [6][35]. - Coking coal: The supply - demand pattern of coking coal had no significant change, and the upward drive came from macro - level benefits of Sino - US trade relations and strong expectations of supply due to safety supervision and anti - involution [7][36].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices oscillated in the morning and weakened in the afternoon. After the October FOMC meeting, the Fed's hawkish stance reduced market expectations of a December rate cut, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and putting pressure on copper prices. Technically, copper is at a historical high, facing significant pressure, and short - term long - position closing intentions are rising. On the industrial side, the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly on Thursday, and downstream buyers showed a strong wait - and - see attitude. Attention should be paid to the support at the 10 - day moving average [6]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rose and then fell. They increased with rising positions in the morning, reaching a high of 21,400 yuan/ton, breaking the Monday high, and then declined with falling positions in the afternoon. Aluminum is more affected by domestic macro factors. Recently, the domestic anti - involution expectations have risen again, which is positive for aluminum prices. On the industrial side, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly on Thursday, providing support for aluminum prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 5 - day moving average [7]. - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated within a narrow range. The non - ferrous metal market showed differentiation, and nickel lacked driving forces. The weakness in the industrial aspect made funds more inclined to short nickel to hedge long positions in non - ferrous metals. Technically, attention should be paid to the technical support at the 120,000 - yuan mark [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In the copper cable industry, automotive wiring harness orders are stable, and State Grid orders are mainly for essential needs, while new orders in other industries are under pressure. In terms of inventory, enterprises are cautious in procurement, and both raw material and finished product inventory ratios have decreased [10]. - **Aluminum**: Duan Shaofu, Deputy Secretary - General of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association, stated that the processing fees in the non - ferrous metal smelting industry are currently low, and "anti - involution" is crucial for high - quality development. The association proposed three measures: setting a production capacity "ceiling" for bulk metals like copper, lead, and zinc; enhancing concentration through mergers and acquisitions for strategic metals; and guiding enterprises to transform towards personalized and high - value - added products [11]. - **Nickel**: On October 31, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,500 - 123,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,500 - 2,600 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 300 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum monthly spread, average aluminum premium, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [25][26][28]. - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated downward with a daily decline of 0.48%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Supported by a positive macro - atmosphere and cost, the rebar price rebounded from recent lows. However, with both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is weak. Once the market logic switches to the industrial side, steel prices will face pressure again. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.72%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The high - supply and high - inventory situation of hot - rolled coils remains unchanged, but demand is performing well. The industrial contradictions have not continued to accumulate, and the price has rebounded recently supported by positive market sentiment. However, demand concerns remain, and the fundamentals have not improved substantially. Be cautious of the market logic switching to the industrial side [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level with a daily decline of 0.56%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. With improved market sentiment and a switch in the arbitrage logic, the iron ore price has returned to a high level. However, ore supply is high while demand continues to weaken, the fundamentals are poor, the upward driving force is weak, and the high valuation will continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, Lan Fo'an pointed out that a package of debt resolution plans will be further implemented, and the replacement of local government's existing implicit debts will be carried out. A unified long - term supervision system for local government debts will be established, and strict accountability will be imposed on illegal debt - raising and false debt resolution. The reform and transformation of local financing platforms will be accelerated, and the establishment or alienation of various financing platforms will be prohibited. The debt structure will be optimized, and a long - term government debt management mechanism suitable for high - quality development will be built. Support will be provided for high - level scientific and technological self - reliance and self - strength to promote the rapid development of new productive forces [6]. - Pan Gongsheng stated that globally, macro - prudential policy tools are already rich and still developing rapidly. Based on the assessment results of the macro - prudential monitoring and analysis framework, the policy toolkits in areas such as systemically important financial institutions, broad credit, real - estate finance, and cross - border capital flows should be continuously enriched and improved. Policy tools to deal with macro - economic and financial market fluctuations should be studied and reserved, and a management mechanism for creation, implementation, evaluation, feedback, and optimization should be established to make them more standardized [7]. - At the third - quarter information conference of the China Iron and Steel Association on October 31st, Vice - President and Secretary - General Jiang Wei said that in the first three quarters, China's steel exports increased year - on - year and imports decreased year - on - year. However, as the global trade environment tightens, the pressure and risks of steel exports are increasing [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,200, 3,190, and 3,261 respectively, with changes of 0, - 10, and - 4. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,330, 3,250, and 3,365 respectively, with changes of 0, - 10, and - 8. The price of Tangshan billet is 2,980 with a change of - 20, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,170 with a change of 10. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is 130 with no change, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 1,030 with a change of - 10 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 803 with a change of - 2, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate is 827 with no change, the sea freight from Australia is 9.48 with a change of 0.13, the sea freight from Brazil is 23.11 with a change of 0.64, the SGX swap (current month) is 105.84 with a change of - 0.11, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) is 107.70 with a change of - 0.70 [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,106 with a decline of 0.48%, the highest price is 3,126, the lowest price is 3,097, the trading volume is 985,855 with a decrease of 455,123, and the open interest is 1,879,450 with a decrease of 15,466 [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract is 3,308 with a decline of 0.72%, the highest price is 3,330, the lowest price is 3,302, the trading volume is 431,109 with a decrease of 183,385, and the open interest is 1,470,219 with a decrease of 3,067 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 800.0 with a decline of 0.56%, the highest price is 802.0, the lowest price is 792.0, the trading volume is 305,778 with a decrease of 20,095, and the open interest is 540,280 with a decrease of 11,268 [11]. 4. Related Charts - There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the inventory of 45 ports of iron ore (including inventory changes, seasonal inventory), the inventory of 247 steel mills' iron ore, the production situation of steel mills (including blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills) [13][18][27] 5. Future Market Outlook - For rebar, both supply and demand are rising. The weekly output of rebar increased by 5.52 tons week - on - week, and the supply has reached a relatively high level this year with increasing inventory pressure. The demand has improved seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 6.17 tons week - on - week and the daily high - frequency trading volume increasing. However, both supply and demand are still at low levels in recent years, and the downstream industry has not improved, so the improvement space is limited. Supported by a positive macro - atmosphere and cost, the rebar price has rebounded from recent lows, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially. Once the market logic switches to the industrial side, steel prices will face pressure again. Attention should be paid to demand performance [35]. - For hot - rolled coils, the supply - demand pattern has changed little. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 1.10 tons week - on - week and remains at a high level this year. The high - inventory situation has limited reduction, and supply pressure is still high, which continues to put pressure on prices. The demand is performing well, with the weekly apparent demand increasing week - on - week and remaining at a high level in the same period. However, the high - frequency trading volume is relatively weak, and the fundamentals of the main downstream cold - rolled products have not improved, so demand concerns remain. The positive factor is the marginal improvement of external demand, but it needs to be tracked after the price rebound. The high - supply and high - inventory situation remains unchanged, but the demand is good, and industrial contradictions have not continued to accumulate. The price has rebounded recently supported by positive market sentiment, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially. Be cautious of the market logic switching to the industrial side [36]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. Affected by production restrictions, the terminal demand for iron ore has been declining. This week, the average daily hot - metal output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills decreased month - on - month, and the decline is expanding. Considering that the industrial contradictions in the steel market have not been alleviated and seasonal production - restriction disturbances occur frequently, the demand for iron ore is expected to continue to decline, which may drag down the ore price. Although the arrival of goods at domestic ports has dropped significantly, it is mainly due to short - term weather disturbances. Overseas miners' shipments remain at a high level, and according to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrival of goods will bottom out and rebound. The domestic iron ore production is stable, and the ore supply remains high. With improved market sentiment and a switch in the arbitrage logic, the iron ore price has returned to a high level, but the supply is high while demand continues to weaken, the fundamentals are poor, the upward driving force is weak, and the high valuation will continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2512 are all weak. The market is expected to run weakly in a volatile manner. After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment and the weakening of previous driving factors, the crude oil market has returned to a situation dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, with both macro and industrial factors remaining weak [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price and Market Performance - On Thursday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract maintained a weakly volatile trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.24% to 461.4 yuan/barrel [5]. Market Driving Factors - After the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents in Busan, South Korea, the overall results were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment was digested, the driving force of macro factors weakened, leading to profit - taking in the market. After the weakening of previous macro - positive driving factors and geopolitical factors, the crude oil market has returned to a situation dominated by supply - demand fundamentals [5].