Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, with an overall oscillatory view. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) in the financial futures stock index sector, the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. Currently, the upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited, in an oscillatory stage. With the central bank's net injection of liquidity and market interest rates close to policy rates, the upside of interest rates is limited. There is an expectation of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, but the short - term possibility is low, so the downside of interest rates is also limited. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly be in an oscillatory arrangement [5]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The time - cycle definition is that short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month. For TL2509, short - term: oscillatory; medium - term: oscillatory; intraday: weakly oscillatory; overall view: oscillatory. The core logic is a loose monetary policy environment with a low short - term possibility of interest rate cuts [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. Last Friday, Treasury bond futures continued to oscillate. The upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. The central bank's net injection of liquidity and market interest rates close to policy rates limit the upside of interest rates. There is an expectation of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, but the short - term possibility is low, limiting the downside of interest rates. Short - term Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. The reference view is also rising. The main driving forces for the stock index rebound are loose liquidity and policy - favorable expectations. The anti - involution policy is beneficial to relevant industries, and the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations boosts the risk appetite of the technology sector. In the short term, the stock index will run with a strong oscillation, and attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the important meeting in July [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is rising. The core logic is that the policy - end favorable expectations provide strong support [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. The reference view is rising. Last Friday, each stock index oscillated and rose. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1593.3 billion yuan, an increase of 33 billion yuan from the previous day. The central bank's net injection of liquidity in the open - market operation recently has led to loose market liquidity, which supports the recovery of market risk appetite [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2509 is rising, the medium - term view is oscillating strongly, and the intraday view is also oscillating strongly. It is advisable to focus on the support at the MA5 line as the supply - demand pattern is good and the ore price is running strongly [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively good. After the end of inspections, steel mills resumed production actively, leading to an increase in terminal consumption of ores. With good profitability of steel mills, the demand for ores has good resilience, providing strong support for the ore price. Although port arrivals have increased as expected, miners' shipments are weak. According to ship schedules, subsequent domestic arrivals will decline again, overseas ore supply will decrease, and domestic ore production will stabilize, resulting in a contraction in supply. In the current situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are good, and the optimistic market sentiment persists, supporting the strong operation of the ore price. However, considering that the valuation has reached a relatively high level, the upside space should be cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - For Iron Ore 2509, the short - term view is "rising", the medium - term view is "oscillating strongly", and the intraday view is "oscillating strongly". The view reference is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is good and the ore price is running strongly. There are also explanations for the calculation of price fluctuations and the definitions of different trends [2]. Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is good. Steel mills' resumption of production after inspections boosts terminal consumption, and the good profitability of steel mills ensures demand resilience. Port arrivals increase but miners' shipments are weak, leading to a future decline in domestic arrivals and overseas supply. Domestic ore production stabilizes, resulting in supply contraction. The current situation of weak supply and increasing demand, along with optimistic market sentiment, supports the strong operation of the ore price. However, due to the relatively high valuation, the upside space should be cautiously optimistic, and the performance of finished products should be monitored [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to oscillate, with short - term decline, medium - term oscillation, and intraday oscillation with a weak bias due to the strengthening of the US dollar [1][3]. - Copper is expected to be strong in the short term, with short - term increase, medium - term oscillation, and intraday increase, driven by the recovery of the domestic and foreign macro - economy after the market digests the impact of US tariffs [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Last week, New York gold oscillated around $3350, and Shanghai gold oscillated around 777 yuan [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The signing of the "Genius Act" by US President Trump on July 18 is expected to strengthen the US dollar index, which is negative for gold prices [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai copper futures price decreased with reduced positions and then stabilized and rebounded at the 78,000 - yuan level. The open interest dropped below 500,000 contracts, and on Friday night, the main futures price rose to the 79,000 - yuan mark [4]. - **Driving Factors**: Good US economic data on Thursday night and positive domestic macro - news on Friday led to a general rise in commodities. The upcoming release of the growth - stabilization plan for ten key industries is expected to continue to drive up copper prices [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - For soybean meal, the short - term, medium - term, and reference views are all positive. In the short - term, it's expected to be strong, in the medium - term, it's also strong, and the reference view is oscillating strongly. The core logic is that due to trade concerns, the forward purchase rhythm is slow, the supply pressure is not transmitted to the far - month, and the forward supply is tight. With high refinery operating rates, the refinery's soybean meal inventory has increased for 10 consecutive weeks, and the negative basis persists. Short - term soybean meal futures prices are dominated by supply expectations, with futures stronger than spot and stronger than US soybeans, and the rebound continues [5]. - For palm oil, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly. The core logic is that the implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy boosts future biodiesel demand, which supports palm oil futures prices. Domestic palm oil follows the international market. With the return of funds due to energy demand, the price gets support. However, as international oil prices fall again, the palm oil price oscillates weakly in the short - term [8]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by trade concerns, the forward purchase rhythm is slow, so the supply pressure is not transmitted to the far - month, and the forward supply is tight. With high refinery operating rates, the refinery's soybean meal inventory has increased for 10 consecutive weeks, and the negative basis persists. Short - term soybean meal futures prices are dominated by supply expectations, with futures stronger than spot and stronger than US soybeans, and the rebound continues [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: The implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy boosts future biodiesel demand, which supports palm oil futures prices. Domestic palm oil follows the international market. With the return of funds due to energy demand, the price gets support. However, as international oil prices fall again, the palm oil price oscillates weakly in the short - term [8]. Other Considerations - For soybean meal 2509, factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, refinery operating rhythm, and stocking demand [7]. - For soybean oil 2509, factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and refinery inventory [7]. - For palm 2509, factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 7 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 偏多思路 | 强预期主导，焦煤持续走强 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 偏多思路 | 成本支撑走强，焦炭向上反弹 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：偏多思路 核心逻辑：7 月 18 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 77 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term, mid - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation", and it is expected to run strongly due to the resonance of fundamental and news - related factors [1][4] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Price and Market View - The short - term, mid - term, and intraday views of thermal coal spot are all "oscillation", with the core logic being the resonance of fundamentals and news driving the strong operation of thermal coal [1][4] Driving Logic of Price Quotes - **Supply**: In the Lvliang Zhongyang area, environmental inspections are strict. One coal mine stopped production on July 18 due to gangue treatment issues, and three other mines are still in a state of shutdown or production reduction. In the future, under the premise of ensuring energy supply security, thermal coal may transition from an oversupply situation to a balanced supply - demand pattern [4] - **Demand**: As of July 10, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 2.148 million tons, a weekly increase of 61,000 tons; that of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.551 million tons, a weekly decrease of 95,000 tons. There is good support for thermal coal demand during the peak season, and the atmosphere at the mine mouth is improving [4] - **Inventory**: As of July 17, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.6985 billion tons, with a slight weekly de - stocking of 34,000 tons. The inventory is 1.151 million tons higher than the same period last year, at a five - year high, indicating sufficient coal storage [4]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Baocheng Futures Rebar Morning Report (July 21, 2025) [1] - Author: Tu Weihua [5] - Author's position: Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department [5] - Author's qualification: F3060359 (futures practice certificate), Z0011688 (investment consulting certificate) [5] Group 2: Investment Ratings - There is no report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 3: Core Views - For Rebar 2510, the short - term view is a rise, the medium - term view is oscillating strongly, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that expectations dominate the steel market, and steel prices will oscillate upwards [2]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and steel prices are relatively under pressure. However, with low inventory and minor real - world contradictions, combined with the fermentation of policy -利好 expectations and strong raw materials providing cost support, steel prices are expected to continue the oscillating upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy implementation [3]. Group 4: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - For Rebar 2510, short - term: rise; medium - term: oscillating strongly; intraday: oscillating weakly. The view is to pay attention to the MA5 line support, and the core logic is that expectations dominate the steel market and steel prices will oscillate upwards. The calculation of price changes and the definitions of rise, fall, and oscillation are provided [2]. Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment is strong, and weekend steel spot prices have risen significantly. The supply of rebar has contracted to a low level as construction steel mills' production has weakened, but the profit per ton of the variety is good, so the sustainability of production cuts is not strong. Rebar demand continues the seasonal weakness, with high - frequency demand indicators performing poorly and at a low level in recent years. The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and steel prices are under pressure, but low inventory means minor real - world contradictions. Policy -利好 expectations and strong raw materials provide cost support, so steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate upwards, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai copper fluctuated around 78,000 yuan and then rebounded. The position volume decreased to below 500,000 contracts, the lowest since March this year, indicating a decrease in capital attention. Due to the uncertainty of copper prices under tariff impacts, short - term funds may flow out, reducing short - term volatility. After the market digests the tariff negatives, copper prices are expected to continue to stabilize and rebound [5]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum dropped sharply on Monday and then stabilized around 20,400 yuan. The position volume also decreased rapidly on Monday, with obvious capital outflows. The decline was due to inventory accumulation and concerns about US tariffs. With a weak industrial situation and strong macro - support, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to inter - month reverse spreads [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, the main contract price of nickel fluctuated above 120,000 yuan. With positive US economic data and positive macro - factors, non - ferrous and black sectors rose. However, the long - term fundamentals of nickel are weak, and the increasing port inventory weakens the support for nickel prices. Attention should be paid to the long - short game around 120,000 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In June 2025, China exported 154,361 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year decrease of 33.8%, and imported 460,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. From January to June, the cumulative export was 743,254 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%, and the cumulative import was 2.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. In June, the import of copper ore concentrates was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, and the cumulative import from January to June was 14.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. BHP's copper production in the fourth quarter was 516,200 tons, with an expected annual production of 1.8 - 2 million tons [9]. - **Aluminum**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%, and imported 300,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.1%. The export of alumina was 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. The import of bauxite and concentrates was 18.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.2% [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 18, for the Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract of refined nickel, the price of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was 122,480 yuan/ton, Russian nickel was 120,980 yuan/ton, Norwegian nickel was 124,030 yuan/ton, and nickel beans were 119,530 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE warrant inventory, copper month - spread, and SHFE inventory and inventory warrants [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Charts cover aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, aluminum month - spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, and alumina inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Charts involve nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, nickel month - spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [35][38][39].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - For the 2509 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term trends are upward, the intraday trend is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is an oscillating approach. For the 2509 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term trends are upward, the intraday trend is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is also an oscillating approach [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For coking coal 2509, short - term: upward; medium - term: upward; intraday: oscillating strongly; view reference: oscillating approach; core logic: supported by strong expectations, coking coal continues to rise [1] - For coke 2509, short - term: upward; medium - term: upward; intraday: oscillating strongly; view reference: oscillating approach; core logic: dominated by bullish factors, coke oscillates and strengthens [1] Price and Market Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Commodity Futures Black Sector Coking Coal (JM) - Intraday view: oscillating strongly; medium - term view: upward; reference view: oscillating approach. The short - term fundamentals of coking coal have not improved significantly, and the supply side has increased marginally in the first two weeks of July. However, driven by positive news such as the US delaying the tariff exemption period and the domestic "anti - involution rectification", the market sentiment has continued to improve, driving the futures price to rebound. After General Secretary Xi Jinping's inspection in Shanxi, the market's bearish sentiment has temporarily receded. Currently, the market sentiment is good, and with the Politburo meeting in July, strong expectations dominate the market, and coking coal futures are expected to maintain a strong operation in the short term [5] Coke (J) - Intraday view: oscillating strongly; medium - term view: upward; reference view: oscillating approach. On the night session of July 17, the main coke contract continued to operate strongly. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of the first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the ex - warehouse price at Qingdao Port was 1270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.25%. The cost support has strengthened, driving up the expectation of a price increase for coke. In the futures market, the supply and demand of coke have both declined, but the market is mainly driven by strong expectations. Affected by multiple positive news at home and abroad, the main coke contract maintains a strong operation and may continue to oscillate upward [6]