1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, each stock index hit the bottom and rebounded, showing a volatile consolidation throughout the day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.1329 trillion yuan, a decrease of 216.9 billion yuan from the previous day. The policy - favorable expectations brought by the "15th Five - Year Plan" are gradually fermenting, providing strong support for the stock index. However, as it enters November, the incremental expectations of domestic policies are decreasing, and the impact of the easing of external risks is diminishing at the margin. The upward driving force has weakened in the short term. As the valuation of stocks rises, the willingness of profitable funds to take profits has increased, and there is still a need for a short - term technical adjustment of the stock index. In general, under the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy - favorable expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of funds, the stock index will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. Currently, the implied volatility of options remains relatively stable. Considering the long - term upward trend of the stock index, it is advisable to maintain a bullish spread or covered - call strategy [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Option Indicators - **Stock Index Performance**: On November 3, 2025, the 50ETF rose 0.03% to close at 3.161; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.15% to close at 4.763; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.26% to close at 4.919; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.27% to close at 4653.40; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.42% to close at 7538.12; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.04% to close at 7.439; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.03% to close at 2.968; the GEM ETF rose 0.32% to close at 3.176; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.14% to close at 3.571; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.16% to close at 3016.35; the STAR 50ETF fell 1.21% to close at 1.47; the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 1.18% to close at 1.43 [6]. - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various options showed different changes compared with the previous trading day. For example, the volume PCR of the SSE 50ETF option was 101.59 (previous day: 114.12), and the open interest PCR was 87.68 (previous day: 89.00) [7]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of the 2025 November at - the - money options and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options were also provided. For instance, the implied volatility of the SSE 50ETF option's 2025 November at - the - money option was 15.01%, and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 12.69% [8]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - The report includes a series of charts for different types of options, such as the SSE 50ETF option, SSE 300ETF option, etc. These charts show the trends of the underlying assets, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curves, and the at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [10][20][33].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: As of the week ending October 31, the total daily coke output of all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.108 million tons, with a slight weekly increase of 800 tons. After the second round of coke price hikes, the per - ton coke profit of 30 independent coking plants was - 32 yuan/ton, improving by 9 yuan week - on - week but still in a loss. Demand side, the daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.3636 million tons, down 35,400 tons/day week - on - week, and the profitability rate dropped by 2.6 percentage points to 45.02%. Overall, coke supply stabilized while demand declined, but due to the Sino - US summit consensus, the coke futures remained high [6][35]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending October 31, the daily output of clean coking coal from 523 coking coal mines was 758,000 tons, down 3,000 tons/day week - on - week and 22,000 tons/day lower than the same period last year. From October 20th to 25th, the total customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the 288 - port was 4,814 vehicles, down 2,406 vehicles week - on - week. Now, the port has returned to normal with a daily customs - clearance vehicle number of around 1,200. The total daily coke output of all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.108 million tons, with a slight weekly increase of 800 tons. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of coking coal did not change significantly, and the upward drive came from macro - level benefits due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and strong expectations for coking coal supply from safety inspections and anti - cut - throat competition [7][36]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry News - **Fed's Interest - Rate Stance**: Fed Governor Christopher Waller advocated for a rate cut in December, worried about the labor market slowdown, which contrasted with other Fed officials' warnings about inflation risks [9]. - **Coking Coal Price**: On November 3, the coking coal price in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur prime coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) at 1,600 yuan/ton cash - inclusive [10]. 2. Spot Market - **Coke**: The current price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke was 1,570 yuan/ton, up 3.29% week - on - week; Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke was 1,560 yuan/ton, up 4.70% week - on - week [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The current price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimao Port was 1,390 yuan/ton, up 6.11% week - on - week; Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,660 yuan/ton, up 1.22% week - on - week; Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,740 yuan/ton, with no weekly change [11]. 3. Futures Market - **Coke**: The closing price of the active coke futures contract was 1,771.5, down 1.17, with a trading volume of 21,422 and an open interest of 39,630 [14]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the active coking coal futures contract was 1,284.5, down 0.85, with a trading volume of 1,020,691 and an open interest of 669,763 [14]. 5. Future Outlook - **Coke**: The supply stabilized and demand declined, but due to Sino - US trade relations improvement, the coke futures remained high [6][35]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply - demand pattern did not change significantly, and the upward drive came from macro - level benefits and supply - side expectations [7][36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices first declined and then rose today. In the afternoon, the domestic macro - atmosphere improved, and the non - ferrous sector as a whole went up. On the industrial level, electrolytic copper slightly increased in inventory on Monday. The short - term main contract price of Shanghai copper has rebounded from the 10 - day moving average for two consecutive days. Continuously monitor the technical support at this position [4]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices significantly increased with rising positions today, especially in the afternoon. The main contract price closed above the 20,600 yuan mark at the end of the session. Aluminum is relatively more affected by the domestic macro situation. Recently, the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the increasing expectation of anti - involution in China are beneficial to aluminum prices. On the industrial level, electrolytic aluminum slightly increased in inventory on Monday. Technically, pay attention to the high - level pressure in November 2024 [5]. - **Nickel**: The main contract price of Shanghai nickel fluctuated around 121,000 yuan today. The upward movement of the non - ferrous sector in the afternoon had little impact on nickel. The weakness on the industrial level makes funds more inclined to short - allocate nickel to hedge long positions in non - ferrous metals. Technically, pay attention to the high - level pressure in late October [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On November 3, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 203,000 tons, an increase of 13,800 tons from last Thursday. Affected by the sharp rise in copper prices last week, the supply of recycled copper raw materials increased, the spread between refined and scrap copper widened, leading to an increase in the output of scrap - produced anode copper smelting enterprises. The average processing fee of anode plates increased by 350 yuan/ton to 750 yuan/ton [8]. - **Aluminum**: On November 3, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 614,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from last Thursday [9]. - **Nickel**: On November 3, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,500 - 123,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,000 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,500 - 2,700 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,600 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 300 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [11][12][13]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum average price and premium, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), aluminum bar inventory, etc [23][24][26]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc [35][37][38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price weakened and declined by 0.96% daily, with increasing volume and open interest. In the current situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relative positive factor is the cost support brought by the strong raw materials. It is expected that rebar will continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price fluctuated downward, recording a 0.60% daily decline, with increasing volume and decreasing open interest. Currently, the situation of high supply and high inventory of hot - rolled coils remains unchanged, and the demand concerns have not subsided. The fundamentals have not improved substantially. Once the market operation logic switches to the industrial end, hot - rolled coils are prone to pressure and weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production restrictions [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price declined weakly, recording a 1.82% daily decline, with increasing volume and decreasing open interest. Currently, the fermentation of positive factors supports the iron ore price to return to a high level, but the supply of iron ore is high, and the demand is weakening. The fundamentals of iron ore are not good. Under the dominance of the real - world logic, the over - valued iron ore price will be under pressure to fall. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [4]. 3. Summaries by Directory Industry Dynamics - **Real estate**: In the first 10 months of 2025, the total sales of TOP100 real estate enterprises were 289.671 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 16.3%. In October, the sales of top 100 real estate enterprises rebounded, with a month - on - month increase of 3.7%. The overall market continued to bottom out. The land acquisition amount of TOP100 enterprises in the first 10 months was 783.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 26.4%, but the growth rate narrowed compared with the first 9 months [6]. - **Heavy - truck market**: In October 2025, about 93,000 heavy - trucks were sold in China, a year - on - year increase of about 40% and a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September. As of now, the heavy - truck market has achieved seven consecutive months of year - on - year growth, with an average growth rate of 39% from April to October [7]. - **Iron ore projects**: In October 2025, 9 iron - ore - related projects were approved in Hebei Province, including 3 iron ore mines, 4 enterprise investment project filings or [changes], 1 enterprise and institution industrial technological transformation project filing [change], and 1 mine development project (non - metal, non - coal mine) filing [8]. Spot Market - **Rebar**: The national average price was 3,247 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton [9]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The national average price was 3,355 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [9]. - **Iron ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 107.40 US dollars/ton, down 0.30 US dollars/ton [9]. Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,079 | - 0.96 | 1,150,576 | 164,721 | 1,919,017 | 39,567 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3,295 | - 0.60 | 512,951 | 81,842 | 1,422,835 | - 47,384 | | Iron ore | 782.5 | - 1.82 | 406,726 | 100,948 | 534,930 | - 5,350 | [11] Related Charts - **Steel inventory**: Includes weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils, showing historical data from multiple years [14][16][20][23]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Covers the inventory of 45 ports in China, including inventory changes, seasonal inventory, and the inventory of 247 steel mills, with historical data from multiple years [19][22][24]. - **Steel mill production**: Involves the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, independent electric furnace operating rate, and the profit - making ratio of steel mills, with historical data from multiple years [28][29][31]. 后市研判 - **Rebar**: Supply and demand are both increasing. The weekly output of rebar increased by 55,200 tons, and the inventory is high. The demand has improved seasonally, but it is still at a low level in recent years, and the improvement space is limited. With the cost support from strong raw materials, it is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [35]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand pattern has changed little. The weekly output increased by 11,000 tons, and the inventory reduction at a high level is limited. The demand is okay, but there are still concerns. Once the market logic switches to the industrial end, it is prone to pressure and weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production restrictions [35]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. The demand is declining, and the supply pressure is increasing. The over - valued iron ore price will be under pressure to fall. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [36].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite positive macro - sentiment and cost - driven support from the rebound in coal futures prices, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained a volatile downward trend last week due to the oversupply in the industry. The futures price dropped to a new low of 2199 yuan/ton this year, with a cumulative decline of 4.05% to 2180 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 month spread remained at a discount of 80 yuan/ton. After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the macro - positive sentiment was digested, and the driving force of macro factors weakened. With high domestic methanol开工率, increasing import pressure, and high inventories at ports, although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin profit is not good, and the weak demand situation remains to be improved. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [6]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Methanol Spot Prices Declined Slightly, and Basis Discount Narrowed - In the week of October 31, 2025, the mainstream spot prices of methanol in East China, South China, and North China decreased slightly week - on - week. The basis discount between the East - China spot price and the methanol 2601 contract futures price narrowed slightly, with a basis discount of 1 yuan/ton as of the end of that week [9]. 1.2 Industry Factors Dominated, and Methanol Trended Weakly - Affected by industry oversupply, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract continued to decline last week, reaching a new low of 2199 yuan/ton this year, with a cumulative decline of 4.05% to 2180 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 month spread remained at a discount of 80 yuan/ton [17]. 2. Analysis of the Methanol Market Supply - Demand Situation 2.1 Domestic Methanol Operating Rate Increased Slightly, and Weekly Output Decreased Slightly - After the holiday, with the resumption of some previously - overhauled devices, the domestic methanol supply pressure rebounded. As of the week of October 31, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.88%, up 1.67% week - on - week, 1.17% month - on - month, and 1.78% year - on - year. The average weekly methanol output reached 196.81 tons, up 2.46 tons week - on - week, 9.54 tons month - on - month, and 8.51 tons year - on - year [18]. 2.2 More Overseas Methanol Ships Arrived at Ports, and Import Pressure Rebounded - In the fourth quarter, methanol supply in regions such as the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South America was sufficient, but international demand was weak. Some methanol was shipped to China. Although the operating rate of Iranian methanol decreased to 3.5 tons per day due to some device failures, it could still meet the shipping volume to China in the short term. In September 2025, China's methanol imports decreased to 142.69 tons month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected that China's methanol imports will remain high in the fourth quarter [21][23]. 2.3 Methanol Downstream Demand was Weak, and Olefin Profit Rebounded Slightly - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the operating rates of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and MTBE increased slightly week - on - week, while the operating rate of acetic acid decreased slightly. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin devices decreased slightly week - on - week. The domestic methanol - to - olefin futures profit was 10 yuan/ton, up 164 yuan/ton week - on - week and 142 yuan/ton month - on - month [25]. 2.4 Port Inventories Increased Slightly, and Inland Inventories Increased Slightly - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the methanol inventories at ports in East and South China reached 128.29 tons, up 1.31 tons week - on - week, 1.48 tons month - on - month, and 26.19 tons year - on - year. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 36.04 tons, up 0.5 tons week - on - week, 4.04 tons month - on - month, and down 7.65 tons year - on - year [31]. 2.5 The Profitability of Domestic Coal - to - Methanol Slightly Declined - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the manufacturing cost of coal - to - methanol in Northwest China was 2275 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2525 yuan/ton. With the methanol futures 2601 contract price at 2272 yuan/ton, the loss was 3 yuan/ton, and the cost - profit rate was about - 0.13%. In Shandong, the manufacturing cost was 2343 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2593 yuan/ton, with a loss of 71 yuan/ton and a cost - profit rate of about - 3.03%. In Inner Mongolia, the manufacturing cost was 2267 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2518 yuan/ton, with a profit of 5 yuan/ton and a cost - profit rate of about 0.22% [34][35]. 3. Conclusion - After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the macro - positive sentiment was digested, and the driving force of macro factors weakened. With high domestic methanol operating rate, increasing import pressure, and high port inventories, although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin profit is not good, and the weak demand situation remains to be improved. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - After the positive factors such as sanctions on Russian oil companies, the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, and South American geopolitical risks were digested, the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures stopped rising and started to decline last week. The main logic in the crude oil market is still price pressure under loose supply and demand, and geopolitical disturbances cannot reverse the trend. It is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [6][75]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot price drop and basis widening**: As of the week ending October 31, 2025, the spot price of crude oil produced in Shengli Oilfield was $61.04 per barrel, equivalent to RMB 432.6 per barrel, a significant weekly decline of $10.0 per barrel. The main contract of domestic crude oil futures, 2512, closed at RMB 458.6 per barrel, a significant weekly decline of RMB 6.3 per barrel. The basis widened slightly to RMB 26.0 per barrel [9]. - **Positive factors digested and oil price decline**: After the positive factors were digested, the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures stopped rising and started to decline last week. The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract showed a volatile downward trend, with a cumulative weekly decline of 1.33% to RMB 458.7 per barrel [12]. 3.2 Aggravation of Crude Oil Supply - Demand Surplus and Faster Production Increase - **OPEC+ production increase**: Since April 2025, OPEC+ has gradually abandoned the production - cut strategy and shifted to a "production - increase for market share" strategy. In early November, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day, the same as in October. It is expected that the daily new supply in the fourth quarter will exceed 430,000 barrels. In September 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 28.44 million barrels per day, a significant monthly increase of 524,000 barrels per day and a significant annual increase of 2.346 million barrels per day [22][23]. - **Non - OPEC production at a high level**: Non - OPEC+ countries' production expansion has further aggravated the supply surplus. As of the week ending October 24, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 420, a slight weekly increase of 2, and the daily US crude oil production was 13.644 million barrels, a slight weekly increase of 15,000 barrels per day and a significant annual increase of 144,000 barrels per day [39]. - **End of the peak demand season in the Northern Hemisphere**: After entering October, the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere ended, demand weakened, and inventory accumulation pressure increased. The three major energy institutions have different forecasts for the oil market. EIA and IEA are more pessimistic, expecting an increase in oil inventory and a decline in oil prices [41]. - **US crude oil inventory and refinery utilization rate**: As of the week ending October 24, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory decreased significantly by 6.858 million barrels week - on - week, and the refinery utilization rate was 86.6%, a slight weekly decline of 2.0 percentage points [45]. - **Increase in China's crude oil imports in September 2025**: In September 2025, China imported about 47.25 million tons of crude oil, a year - on - year increase of 3.9% and a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. Russia remained China's largest crude oil supplier, while imports from the US were almost zero [55][56]. 3.3 End of the Israel - Palestine Conflict and Cooling Geopolitical Risks - In October 2025, the Israel - Palestine conflict ended, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East decreased, causing the "geopolitical risk premium" to be squeezed out, and oil prices were under pressure. In contrast, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continued, and Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries reduced Russia's refining capacity, increasing the supply of discounted crude oil in the global market [63][66]. 3.4 Significant Weekly Decrease in Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market - Since October 2025, the prices of international crude oil futures have been under pressure. As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil decreased by 19,105 contracts compared with the August average, a decline of 15.65%. As of October 21, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds decreased by 164,564 contracts compared with the September average, a decline of 76.06% [71]. 3.5 Conclusion - After the digestion of positive factors, the main logic in the crude oil market is price pressure under loose supply and demand. Geopolitical disturbances exist but are difficult to reverse the trend. It is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [75].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Copper: The Fed's hawkish stance and the historical high level are pressuring copper prices. Last week, copper prices rose and then fell, with a narrowing amplitude and a decline in open interest, indicating an increasing willingness of short - term bulls to close positions. After the October Fed interest - rate meeting, LME copper dropped significantly. The 25 - basis - point rate cut met market expectations, but internal policy disagreements and Powell's cautious attitude towards future rate cuts cooled the rate - cut expectation, which is negative for copper prices. Also, after the meeting and the APEC China - US summit, the copper market showed a trend of "good news exhausted." Copper prices have risen sharply in the short term and face historical high - level pressure, so bulls are more willing to close positions. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average [5]. - Aluminum: The expectation of "anti - involution" in China has heated up again, and aluminum prices are running strongly. Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated, and there was a sign of upward breakthrough in the night session on Friday. Compared with copper, China has stronger pricing power for aluminum. At the macro level, the decline in overseas rate - cut expectations is negative for aluminum prices, while the warming of the domestic macro - economy and the rising "anti - involution" expectation are positive. In the industry, both the inventories of electrolytic aluminum and downstream aluminum rods are decreasing, which also supports the futures price. Attention should be paid to the high - level pressure in November 2024 above and the support of the 10 - day moving average below [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - On October 30, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected in the October meeting. Milan supported a 50BP rate cut, and Schmid hoped to keep rates unchanged. The balance - sheet reduction will end on December 1. Powell said that a December rate cut is not a certainty, and officials have serious disagreements on December policies. The data vacuum due to the government shutdown has made more people cautious and inclined to keep rates unchanged. Powell also mentioned that this is a risk - management rate cut and that the current AI boom is different from the previous Internet bubble [10]. 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity - Price Trend - The report presents multiple charts related to copper's quantity - price trend, including copper futures price trends, copper's Shanghai - London ratio, 1 electrolytic copper's seasonal premium and discount, Shanghai copper's open interest, COMEX non - commercial long net positions, etc. [12][18][22] 2.2 Copper Ore Inventory Depletion - Charts show the port inventory of copper concentrates and the TC processing fees of copper concentrates, reflecting the situation of copper ore inventory depletion [26]. 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory - The report shows the domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper and the overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME) of electrolytic copper [28]. 2.4 Downstream Initial - Stage - A chart shows the monthly capacity utilization rate of copper's downstream industries [31]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity - Price Trend - The report presents multiple charts related to aluminum's quantity - price trend, including aluminum price trends, aluminum's Shanghai - London ratio, LME aluminum's premium and discount, Shanghai aluminum's spot premium and discount, etc. [30][32][34] 3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - Charts show the port inventory of bauxite and the price of alumina, reflecting the situation of the upstream industry chain [37][38]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Depletion - The report shows the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, indicating the inventory depletion situation [40]. 3.4 Downstream Initial - Stage - Charts show the capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods, the average processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, and the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods, reflecting the situation of the downstream initial - stage [43][46][48]. 4. Conclusion - Copper: Last week, copper prices rose and then fell, with a narrowing amplitude and a decline in open interest. After the October Fed interest - rate meeting, LME copper dropped significantly. The rate - cut expectation cooled, and the market showed a "good news exhausted" trend. Copper prices face historical high - level pressure, and bulls are more willing to close positions. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated, with a sign of upward breakthrough on Friday night. China has stronger pricing power for aluminum. Overseas rate - cut expectation decline is negative, while domestic macro - warming and "anti - involution" expectation rise are positive. Industry inventory depletion supports the futures price. Attention should be paid to the high - level pressure in November 2024 above and the support of the 10 - day moving average below [49].

贵金属 | 周报 · 2025 年 11 月 3 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 期货研究报告 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 金价震荡企稳 核心观点 上周金价震荡下行，10 月美联储议息会议后，金价有所反弹。美 联储本次降息 25 个基点符合市场普遍预期。然而，其内部的政策分 歧以及鲍威尔对后续降息持有的谨慎态度。市场将其解读为偏鹰派， 市场预期 12 月降息概率下降，利空金价。APEC 中美会晤后，两国相 继出台关税放松政策，中美贸易趋于缓和。但随着美联储 10 月议息 会议落地，APEC 中美元首会晤结束，贵金属市场呈现反弹走势，可能 是由于 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic thermal coal prices remained stable. As of October 31, the quotation for 5500K coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 768 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The coal market atmosphere was still optimistic, with good purchasing enthusiasm among traders and many coal mines raising prices. The market expected a supply contraction at the end of the year, which supported the coal price. Although the demand in southern coastal cities declined in the off - season after the October cooling, the low coal inventory in coastal power plants meant there was still restocking demand. The La Nina phenomenon that emerged in September 2025 might last until December 2025 - February 2026, but its impact on winter temperatures was uncertain. As of October 31, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 23.169 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 800,000 tons and 2.729 million tons lower than the same period last year, which supported the port coal price. After the China - US summit, some tariffs were lowered and suspended for one year. Overall, some positive factors were mostly realized in October. As coal prices rose, market competition intensified, and it was expected that the upward trend of coal prices would slow down and remain in a high - level volatile state [3][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 News and Market Trends - In the first three quarters, the installed capacity of coal - fired power was 1.23 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The total social electricity consumption in the country was 7.77 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. It was expected that the electricity consumption growth rate in the fourth quarter would be higher than that in the third quarter, and the annual social electricity consumption would increase by about 5% year - on - year. From January to September, the coal mining and washing industry achieved a profit of 22.464 billion yuan, a decrease of 51.1%. The autumn maintenance of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway was completed one day ahead of schedule, and the daily freight volume was expected to quickly rebound to over 1.2 million tons [5][7][8][10]. 3.2 Market Data Tracking - On October 29, the Bohai Rim Thermal Coal Price Index was 685 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton. As of October 30, the FOB price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal produced in Shanxi at Qinhuangdao Port was 768 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared to October 23. Shipping freight rates were adjusted downward this week. As of October 30, the China Coastal Coal Freight Composite Index was 943.06 points, a decrease of 6.35 points from October 23; the BDI freight index also declined. As of October 30, the spot prices of Q5800, Q5500, Q5000, and Q4500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port were 823.11, 768.00, 672.00, and 587.00 yuan/ton respectively. The main contract of Zhengzhou Coal was 33.4 yuan/ton higher than the 5500 - calorie thermal coal quotation at Qinhuangdao Port. As of October 30, the Q5500 Indonesian coal ex - warehouse price at Guangzhou Port was 768.62 yuan/ton, 0.62 yuan/ton higher than the domestic Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal quotation. As of October 24, the Newcastle thermal coal spot price was 103.74 US dollars/ton. As of October 28, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 5.64 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,000 tons, and the number of ships at anchor was 17 [13][15][23][24][26]. 3.3 Future Outlook - The market expected a supply contraction at the end of the year, which supported the coal price. The low coal inventory in coastal power plants meant there was still restocking demand. The La Nina phenomenon might last until December 2025 - February 2026, but its impact on winter temperatures was uncertain. The low inventory at ports supported the coal price. After the China - US summit, some tariffs were lowered and suspended for one year. Overall, it was expected that the upward trend of coal prices would slow down and remain in a high - level volatile state [3][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - **Coke**: Cost strongly supports coke, which is operating at a high level. After the second round of price increases for coke landed this week, the cost - strong support drove the spot market to run strongly. However, downstream steel mill profits shrank, and demand - side pressure emerged due to environmental restrictions in the north. As of the week ending October 31, the total daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 1.108 million tons, with a slight increase of 800 tons week - on - week. The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 32 yuan/ton, improving by 9 yuan week - on - week but still in a loss. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.3636 million tons, a sharp decrease of 35,400 tons per day week - on - week, and the profitability rate dropped by 2.6 percentage points to 45.02%. Overall, coke supply stabilized, demand declined, and the fundamentals weakened marginally. But due to the improvement in Sino - US trade relations, coke futures remained at a high level [5][45]. - **Coking Coal**: Supported by strong expectations, coking coal fluctuated strongly. The spot market of coking coal was stable with a slight upward trend. On October 30, the price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,390 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton week - on - week. As of the week ending October 31, the daily average output of coking coal from 523 coking coal mines was 758,000 tons, a slight decrease of 3,000 tons per day week - on - week. From October 20 - 25, the total number of Mongolian coal trucks passing through the 288 Port was 4,814, a decrease of 2,406 week - on - week. The daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was basically flat, with a slight increase of 800 tons. The upward drive mainly came from the macro - benefits of the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the strong expectations for coking coal supply from safety inspections and anti - cut - throat competition [6][48]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Spot Market - **Coke**: The current price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke at the flat - position price was 1,570 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3.29%, a month - on - month increase of 6.80%, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.10%. The current price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke at the ex - warehouse price was 1,550 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4.03%, a month - on - month increase of 6.16%, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.32% [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The current price of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,390 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 6.11%, a month - on - month increase of 8.59%, and a year - on - year increase of 17.80%. The current price of Australian - produced coking coal at the Jingtang Port was 1,660 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1.22%, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.41%. The current price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at the Jingtang Port was 1,740 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.73% [7]. 3.1.2 Futures Market - The report presented the charts of the basis of coke 01 and 05 contracts, as well as coking coal 01 and 05 contracts, but no specific data analysis was provided [13][14][16] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - **Coke**: As of October 31, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 72.74%, a decrease of 0.42% week - on - week and 0.36% year - on - year. The daily coke output was 513,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons week - on - week and 17,000 tons year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mill coking plants was 85.21%, an increase of 0.18% week - on - week and a decrease of 1.37% year - on - year. The daily output was 462,100 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 6,800 tons year - on - year [17]. - **Coking Coal**: As of October 31, the operating rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.5%, a decrease of 0.40% week - on - week. The daily average output of clean coal was 265,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons week - on - week. The clean coal inventory was 2.844 million tons, a decrease of 52,000 tons week - on - week. The operating rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.80%, a decrease of 0.30% week - on - week and 3.40% year - on - year. The daily average output of coking coal from mines was 758,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons week - on - week and 22,000 tons year - on - year [21]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - **Coke**: As of October 31, the profitability rate of steel mills was 45.02%, a decrease of 2.60% week - on - week and 16.02% year - on - year. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 88.61%, a decrease of 1.33% week - on - week and an increase of 0.21% year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate was 81.75%, a decrease of 2.96% week - on - week and 0.69% year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons week - on - week and an increase of 8,900 tons year - on - year [23]. - **Coking Coal**: As of October 31, the total inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 10.5248 million tons, with an available days of 12.3 days, corresponding to a daily consumption of 855,700 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons day - on - day. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.9632 million tons, with an available days of 13.36 days, corresponding to a daily consumption of 596,000 tons, a decrease of 17,100 tons day - on - day. The total daily consumption was 1.4517 million tons, a decrease of 19,500 tons day - on - day [26]. 3.2.3 Inventory - **Coke**: As of October 31, the coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 375,200 tons, unchanged week - on - week and a decrease of 66,000 tons year - on - year. The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 598,700 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 214,000 tons year - on - year. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.291 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons week - on - week and an increase of 503,000 tons year - on - year. The total inventory of four major ports was 2.111 million tons, an increase of 110,000 tons week - on - week and an increase of 330,000 tons year - on - year [28]. - **Coking Coal**: As of October 31, the clean coal inventory of 523 coking coal mines was 164,500 tons, a decrease of 250,000 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 1.261 million tons year - on - year. The coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 10.5248 million tons, an increase of 227,800 tons week - on - week and an increase of 1.3877 million tons year - on - year. The total port inventory was 2.9015 million tons, an increase of 145,000 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 1.3508 million tons year - on - year. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.9632 million tons, an increase of 133,600 tons week - on - week and an increase of 539,200 tons year - on - year [36]. 3.2.4 Coking Profit - As of October 31, the profit per ton of coke for 30 sample coking enterprises was - 32 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton week - on - week [44] 3.3 Conclusion - **Coke**: The second - round price increase landed, with cost strongly supporting the spot market. However, demand - side pressure emerged. The daily average coke output was basically stable, and coking plants were still in a loss, with a desire to raise prices. The daily average pig iron output of steel mills decreased significantly, and the profitability rate declined. Overall, the fundamentals weakened marginally, but the market atmosphere improved, and coke futures remained at a high level [45]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot market was stable with a slight upward trend. The supply - demand pattern did not change significantly, and the upward drive came from macro - benefits of Sino - US trade relations and strong expectations for supply [48].