1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth rate at constant prices in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year-on-year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - Manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 49.0%, down from 49.8% in the previous month and 50.1% in the same period last year [1] - Non-manufacturing PMI for business activities in October 2025 was 50.1%, up slightly from 50.0% in the previous month but down from 50.2% in the same period last year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - China's S&P Manufacturing PMI in October was 50.6, down from 51.2 in the previous month, with the expansion trend slowing [2] - In the first three quarters, the added value of large-scale electronic information manufacturing increased by 10.9% year-on-year, outperforming the overall industry and high-tech manufacturing [2] - China and the EU held export control dialogue consultations in Brussels, aiming to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains [2] 2.2 Metals - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China suspended and then resumed its gold accumulation business on November 3 [5] - Lithium carbonate prices have been rising recently, driven by unexpected demand and accelerated inventory depletion [6] - The three-month zinc futures on the London Metal Exchange reached $3,097 per ton, a new high since December 2024 [6] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Baosteel adjusted its production capacity target to "over 80 million tons", focusing on synergy and value creation [8] - Global iron ore shipments from October 27 to November 2 decreased by 174.5 tons compared to the previous period [8] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On November 3, the main contract of US crude oil closed higher after OPEC+ decided to suspend the planned production increase in Q1 2026 [9] - BP's CEO expects electricity demand to grow from 1% to 10% of the global economy in the next 5 - 10 years, driven by AI [9] 2.5 Agricultural Products - As of last Thursday, the planting progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop reached 47% of the expected area [11] - India's soybean oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year soared by 61.6% year-on-year to a record 5.56 million tons [11] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On November 3, the central bank conducted 783 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 259 billion yuan [12] 3.2 Key News - China's S&P Manufacturing PMI expansion slowed in October, but upcoming policies may support the index [13] - Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for China's export growth and real GDP growth [15] - The 8th China International Import Expo will be held from November 5 - 10 in Shanghai [15] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market showed narrow fluctuations, with long-term bonds performing slightly better [19] - The main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly declined, and the 30-year main contract fell 0.11% [19] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1225 against the US dollar on November 3, down 90 points from the previous trading day [24] - The US dollar index rose 0.15% to 99.87 in New York trading [24] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - Xingzheng Fixed Income believes that the bond market will likely remain range-bound, and investors should focus on medium-term, high-coupon credit bonds [25] - Yangtze River Fixed Income expects the bond market to recover in Q4, with the yield of the 10-year treasury bond (tax-exempt) potentially falling to 1.65% - 1.7% [25] 4. Stock Market Key News - A shares rebounded after hitting a low, with Hainan Free Trade Zone and AI application themes leading the gains [30] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to 3,976.52 points, and the total turnover of A shares was 2.13 trillion yuan [30] - The Hang Seng Index rose 0.97% to 26,158.36 points, and southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$5.472 billion [30]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The natural rubber market is in a pattern of "high supply pressure and insufficient demand support", with a bearish fundamental outlook. Rubber prices will continue to oscillate weakly under the repeated game between macro - sentiment fluctuations and industrial realities [4]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Supply - Side Situation - The production of natural rubber is increasing. Currently in the peak rubber - tapping season, the weather in domestic production areas such as Hainan and Yunnan is stable, and the impact of Typhoon "Meykhla" in early October was limited. The production of rubber forests quickly recovered, and new rubber output increased steadily. In Southeast Asia, countries like Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam are also in the full - scale rubber - tapping cycle, with stable output growth. From January to August, the total rubber production of ANRPC member countries reached 6.8536 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65,000 tons or 0.96%. Thailand's production increased by 3.00% year - on - year, and exports increased by 7.85% year - on - year [2]. - The inventory pressure is high. From January to September, China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 6.115 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.2%. The cumulative imports of natural rubber were 4.7172 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.65%. In October, with the large - scale listing of new rubber and the concentrated arrival of imports, the inventory de - stocking rhythm in Qingdao Port slowed down, and there were signs of re - accumulation. The inventory level of the entire supply chain exerts strong pressure on rubber prices [3]. Demand - Side Situation - The demand in the tire industry is weak. The demand in the domestic tire industry is structurally differentiated and overall sluggish. Due to the seasonal weakening of terminal demand and some enterprises' active adjustment of production rhythms to cope with inventory pressure, the operating load of the tire industry has declined. The growth rate of tire exports has also slowed down, and the export market faces certain resistance. As of the week ending October 31, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56 percentage points but a year - on - year decrease of 5.90 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.30%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.57 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.20 percentage points. The demand for full - steel tires will remain weak due to insufficient construction starts in real estate and infrastructure projects, which in turn suppresses the demand for whole latex [4]. Market Performance - The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a weak downward trend. Last Friday, it fell 2.65% to 15,085 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 1.63% last week [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 4, 2025, the Shanghai Rubber Futures 2601 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening oscillations, and a slight decline. After the weakening of macro - driving factors, the domestic rubber market returned to a situation dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. The 1 - 5 month spread discount widened to 90 yuan/ton [6]. - On the same day, the domestic Methanol Futures 2601 contract presented a pattern of increasing volume, increasing positions, weakening downward movement, and a significant decline. Suppressed by the weak supply - demand fundamentals of domestic methanol, the 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weak pattern [6]. - Also on that day, the domestic Crude Oil Futures 2512 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, strengthening oscillations, and a slight increase. With the rapid escalation of geopolitical risks in South America and OPEC's suspension of capacity expansion in the first quarter of next year, the supply expectation changed, boosting the confidence of oil market bulls [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 43.22 million tons, a decrease of 0.53 million tons or 1.20% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.29% to 6.87 million tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.18% to 36.35 million tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 3.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.61 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.89 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.54 percentage points [9]. - In the week of October 31, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.4%, a slight increase of 0.56 percentage points week - on - week but a significant decline of 5.90 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.30%, a slight decrease of 0.57 percentage points week - on - week and a slight decrease of 3.20 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, a rebound of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The new order index showed stable expansion. In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 17.1% and 14.9%. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative automobile production and sales were 24.333 million and 24.363 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 12.9%. In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, achieving six consecutive months of growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market was about 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 83.88%, a slight increase of 1.67% week - on - week, 1.17% month - on - month, and 1.78% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.9681 million tons, a slight increase of 24,600 tons week - on - week, a significant increase of 95,400 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 85,100 tons compared with 1.883 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the same week, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.98%, a slight increase of 0.01% week - on - week. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 9.79%, a slight increase of 1.45% week - on - week. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 72.32%, a slight decrease of 1.29% week - on - week. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 56.50%, a slight increase of 0.01% week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 84.18%, a slight decrease of 2.27 percentage points week - on - week and a slight increase of 1.15% month - on - month. As of October 31, 2025, the futures profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was 10 yuan/ton, a slight recovery of 164 yuan/ton week - on - week and a slight rebound of 142 yuan/ton month - on - month [11]. - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 1.2829 million tons, a slight increase of 13,100 tons week - on - week, 14,800 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 261,900 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory reached 360,400 tons, a slight increase of 5,000 tons week - on - week, 40,400 tons month - on - month, and a significant decrease of 76,500 tons compared with 436,900 tons in the same period last year [12][14]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 420, a slight increase of 2 compared with the previous week and a decrease of 60 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.644 million barrels, a slight increase of 15,000 barrels/day week - on - week and a significant increase of 144,000 barrels/day year - on - year, reaching a historical high [15]. - As of the same week, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 416 million barrels, a significant decrease of 6.858 million barrels week - on - week and 9.543 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 22.565 million barrels, a slight increase of 1.334 million barrels week - on - week. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 409.1 million barrels, a slight increase of 533,000 barrels week - on - week. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 86.6%, a slight decline of 2.0 percentage points week - on - week, a significant decrease of 4.8 percentage points month - on - month, and a slight decline of 2.5 percentage points year - on - year [15]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 102,958 contracts, a significant increase of 4,249 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts or 15.65% compared with the average in August. As of October 28, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 173,887 contracts, a significant increase of 122,096 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 42,468 contracts or 19.63% compared with the average in September [16]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,800 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,095 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | - 295 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,175 yuan/ton | - 37 yuan/ton | 2,143 yuan/ton | - 37 yuan/ton | +32 yuan/ton | +37 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 435.8 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 467.9 yuan/barrel | +9.2 yuan/barrel | - 32.1 yuan/barrel | - 9.3 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber - related charts include the rubber basis chart, the Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory chart, the Qingdao Free Trade Zone rubber inventory chart, the full - steel tire operating rate trend chart, and the semi - steel tire operating rate trend chart [18][20][26]. - Methanol - related charts include the methanol basis chart, the methanol 1 - 5 month spread chart, the methanol domestic port inventory chart, the methanol inland social inventory chart, the methanol - to - olefin operating rate change chart, and the coal - to - methanol cost accounting chart [31][33][35]. - Crude - oil - related charts include the crude oil basis chart, the Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory chart, the US crude oil commercial inventory chart, the US refinery operating rate chart, the WTI crude oil net position holding change chart, and the Brent crude oil net position holding change chart [44][46][48].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2025 年第 44 周） 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 3314.10 万吨，环比大增 1229.80 万吨，前期压货集中到港；其中澳矿到货量 环比增 583.80 万吨，巴西矿到货环比增 428.40 万吨，其他地区矿则是增 217.60 万吨。 2、海外矿石发运延续下行，全球矿石发运总量为 3213.80 万吨，环比降 174.55 万吨。各地发运均有 所，但整体降幅不大，其中澳矿发运环比降 89.24 万吨，巴西矿发运降 77.42 万吨，非澳巴矿发运微降 7.89 万吨。主流矿商发运增减互现，四大矿商发运量合计下降 34.24 万吨，减量最大为 FMG。 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量将高位回落，海外矿石供应延续高位平稳运行。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 网址：www.bcqhgs.com 1 地址：杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, each stock index hit the bottom and rebounded, showing a volatile consolidation throughout the day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.1329 trillion yuan, a decrease of 216.9 billion yuan from the previous day. The policy - favorable expectations brought by the "15th Five - Year Plan" are gradually fermenting, providing strong support for the stock index. However, as it enters November, the incremental expectations of domestic policies are decreasing, and the impact of the easing of external risks is diminishing at the margin. The upward driving force has weakened in the short term. As the valuation of stocks rises, the willingness of profitable funds to take profits has increased, and there is still a need for a short - term technical adjustment of the stock index. In general, under the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy - favorable expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of funds, the stock index will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. Currently, the implied volatility of options remains relatively stable. Considering the long - term upward trend of the stock index, it is advisable to maintain a bullish spread or covered - call strategy [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Option Indicators - **Stock Index Performance**: On November 3, 2025, the 50ETF rose 0.03% to close at 3.161; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.15% to close at 4.763; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.26% to close at 4.919; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.27% to close at 4653.40; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.42% to close at 7538.12; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.04% to close at 7.439; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.03% to close at 2.968; the GEM ETF rose 0.32% to close at 3.176; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.14% to close at 3.571; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.16% to close at 3016.35; the STAR 50ETF fell 1.21% to close at 1.47; the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 1.18% to close at 1.43 [6]. - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various options showed different changes compared with the previous trading day. For example, the volume PCR of the SSE 50ETF option was 101.59 (previous day: 114.12), and the open interest PCR was 87.68 (previous day: 89.00) [7]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of the 2025 November at - the - money options and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options were also provided. For instance, the implied volatility of the SSE 50ETF option's 2025 November at - the - money option was 15.01%, and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 12.69% [8]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - The report includes a series of charts for different types of options, such as the SSE 50ETF option, SSE 300ETF option, etc. These charts show the trends of the underlying assets, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curves, and the at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [10][20][33].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: As of the week ending October 31, the total daily coke output of all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.108 million tons, with a slight weekly increase of 800 tons. After the second round of coke price hikes, the per - ton coke profit of 30 independent coking plants was - 32 yuan/ton, improving by 9 yuan week - on - week but still in a loss. Demand side, the daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.3636 million tons, down 35,400 tons/day week - on - week, and the profitability rate dropped by 2.6 percentage points to 45.02%. Overall, coke supply stabilized while demand declined, but due to the Sino - US summit consensus, the coke futures remained high [6][35]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending October 31, the daily output of clean coking coal from 523 coking coal mines was 758,000 tons, down 3,000 tons/day week - on - week and 22,000 tons/day lower than the same period last year. From October 20th to 25th, the total customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the 288 - port was 4,814 vehicles, down 2,406 vehicles week - on - week. Now, the port has returned to normal with a daily customs - clearance vehicle number of around 1,200. The total daily coke output of all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.108 million tons, with a slight weekly increase of 800 tons. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of coking coal did not change significantly, and the upward drive came from macro - level benefits due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and strong expectations for coking coal supply from safety inspections and anti - cut - throat competition [7][36]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry News - **Fed's Interest - Rate Stance**: Fed Governor Christopher Waller advocated for a rate cut in December, worried about the labor market slowdown, which contrasted with other Fed officials' warnings about inflation risks [9]. - **Coking Coal Price**: On November 3, the coking coal price in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur prime coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) at 1,600 yuan/ton cash - inclusive [10]. 2. Spot Market - **Coke**: The current price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke was 1,570 yuan/ton, up 3.29% week - on - week; Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke was 1,560 yuan/ton, up 4.70% week - on - week [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The current price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimao Port was 1,390 yuan/ton, up 6.11% week - on - week; Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,660 yuan/ton, up 1.22% week - on - week; Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,740 yuan/ton, with no weekly change [11]. 3. Futures Market - **Coke**: The closing price of the active coke futures contract was 1,771.5, down 1.17, with a trading volume of 21,422 and an open interest of 39,630 [14]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the active coking coal futures contract was 1,284.5, down 0.85, with a trading volume of 1,020,691 and an open interest of 669,763 [14]. 5. Future Outlook - **Coke**: The supply stabilized and demand declined, but due to Sino - US trade relations improvement, the coke futures remained high [6][35]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply - demand pattern did not change significantly, and the upward drive came from macro - level benefits and supply - side expectations [7][36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices first declined and then rose today. In the afternoon, the domestic macro - atmosphere improved, and the non - ferrous sector as a whole went up. On the industrial level, electrolytic copper slightly increased in inventory on Monday. The short - term main contract price of Shanghai copper has rebounded from the 10 - day moving average for two consecutive days. Continuously monitor the technical support at this position [4]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices significantly increased with rising positions today, especially in the afternoon. The main contract price closed above the 20,600 yuan mark at the end of the session. Aluminum is relatively more affected by the domestic macro situation. Recently, the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the increasing expectation of anti - involution in China are beneficial to aluminum prices. On the industrial level, electrolytic aluminum slightly increased in inventory on Monday. Technically, pay attention to the high - level pressure in November 2024 [5]. - **Nickel**: The main contract price of Shanghai nickel fluctuated around 121,000 yuan today. The upward movement of the non - ferrous sector in the afternoon had little impact on nickel. The weakness on the industrial level makes funds more inclined to short - allocate nickel to hedge long positions in non - ferrous metals. Technically, pay attention to the high - level pressure in late October [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On November 3, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 203,000 tons, an increase of 13,800 tons from last Thursday. Affected by the sharp rise in copper prices last week, the supply of recycled copper raw materials increased, the spread between refined and scrap copper widened, leading to an increase in the output of scrap - produced anode copper smelting enterprises. The average processing fee of anode plates increased by 350 yuan/ton to 750 yuan/ton [8]. - **Aluminum**: On November 3, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 614,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from last Thursday [9]. - **Nickel**: On November 3, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,500 - 123,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,000 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,500 - 2,700 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,600 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 300 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [11][12][13]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum average price and premium, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), aluminum bar inventory, etc [23][24][26]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc [35][37][38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price weakened and declined by 0.96% daily, with increasing volume and open interest. In the current situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relative positive factor is the cost support brought by the strong raw materials. It is expected that rebar will continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price fluctuated downward, recording a 0.60% daily decline, with increasing volume and decreasing open interest. Currently, the situation of high supply and high inventory of hot - rolled coils remains unchanged, and the demand concerns have not subsided. The fundamentals have not improved substantially. Once the market operation logic switches to the industrial end, hot - rolled coils are prone to pressure and weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production restrictions [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price declined weakly, recording a 1.82% daily decline, with increasing volume and decreasing open interest. Currently, the fermentation of positive factors supports the iron ore price to return to a high level, but the supply of iron ore is high, and the demand is weakening. The fundamentals of iron ore are not good. Under the dominance of the real - world logic, the over - valued iron ore price will be under pressure to fall. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [4]. 3. Summaries by Directory Industry Dynamics - **Real estate**: In the first 10 months of 2025, the total sales of TOP100 real estate enterprises were 289.671 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 16.3%. In October, the sales of top 100 real estate enterprises rebounded, with a month - on - month increase of 3.7%. The overall market continued to bottom out. The land acquisition amount of TOP100 enterprises in the first 10 months was 783.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 26.4%, but the growth rate narrowed compared with the first 9 months [6]. - **Heavy - truck market**: In October 2025, about 93,000 heavy - trucks were sold in China, a year - on - year increase of about 40% and a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September. As of now, the heavy - truck market has achieved seven consecutive months of year - on - year growth, with an average growth rate of 39% from April to October [7]. - **Iron ore projects**: In October 2025, 9 iron - ore - related projects were approved in Hebei Province, including 3 iron ore mines, 4 enterprise investment project filings or [changes], 1 enterprise and institution industrial technological transformation project filing [change], and 1 mine development project (non - metal, non - coal mine) filing [8]. Spot Market - **Rebar**: The national average price was 3,247 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton [9]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The national average price was 3,355 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [9]. - **Iron ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 107.40 US dollars/ton, down 0.30 US dollars/ton [9]. Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,079 | - 0.96 | 1,150,576 | 164,721 | 1,919,017 | 39,567 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3,295 | - 0.60 | 512,951 | 81,842 | 1,422,835 | - 47,384 | | Iron ore | 782.5 | - 1.82 | 406,726 | 100,948 | 534,930 | - 5,350 | [11] Related Charts - **Steel inventory**: Includes weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils, showing historical data from multiple years [14][16][20][23]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Covers the inventory of 45 ports in China, including inventory changes, seasonal inventory, and the inventory of 247 steel mills, with historical data from multiple years [19][22][24]. - **Steel mill production**: Involves the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, independent electric furnace operating rate, and the profit - making ratio of steel mills, with historical data from multiple years [28][29][31]. 后市研判 - **Rebar**: Supply and demand are both increasing. The weekly output of rebar increased by 55,200 tons, and the inventory is high. The demand has improved seasonally, but it is still at a low level in recent years, and the improvement space is limited. With the cost support from strong raw materials, it is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [35]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand pattern has changed little. The weekly output increased by 11,000 tons, and the inventory reduction at a high level is limited. The demand is okay, but there are still concerns. Once the market logic switches to the industrial end, it is prone to pressure and weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production restrictions [35]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. The demand is declining, and the supply pressure is increasing. The over - valued iron ore price will be under pressure to fall. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [36].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite positive macro - sentiment and cost - driven support from the rebound in coal futures prices, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained a volatile downward trend last week due to the oversupply in the industry. The futures price dropped to a new low of 2199 yuan/ton this year, with a cumulative decline of 4.05% to 2180 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 month spread remained at a discount of 80 yuan/ton. After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the macro - positive sentiment was digested, and the driving force of macro factors weakened. With high domestic methanol开工率, increasing import pressure, and high inventories at ports, although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin profit is not good, and the weak demand situation remains to be improved. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [6]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Methanol Spot Prices Declined Slightly, and Basis Discount Narrowed - In the week of October 31, 2025, the mainstream spot prices of methanol in East China, South China, and North China decreased slightly week - on - week. The basis discount between the East - China spot price and the methanol 2601 contract futures price narrowed slightly, with a basis discount of 1 yuan/ton as of the end of that week [9]. 1.2 Industry Factors Dominated, and Methanol Trended Weakly - Affected by industry oversupply, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract continued to decline last week, reaching a new low of 2199 yuan/ton this year, with a cumulative decline of 4.05% to 2180 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 month spread remained at a discount of 80 yuan/ton [17]. 2. Analysis of the Methanol Market Supply - Demand Situation 2.1 Domestic Methanol Operating Rate Increased Slightly, and Weekly Output Decreased Slightly - After the holiday, with the resumption of some previously - overhauled devices, the domestic methanol supply pressure rebounded. As of the week of October 31, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.88%, up 1.67% week - on - week, 1.17% month - on - month, and 1.78% year - on - year. The average weekly methanol output reached 196.81 tons, up 2.46 tons week - on - week, 9.54 tons month - on - month, and 8.51 tons year - on - year [18]. 2.2 More Overseas Methanol Ships Arrived at Ports, and Import Pressure Rebounded - In the fourth quarter, methanol supply in regions such as the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South America was sufficient, but international demand was weak. Some methanol was shipped to China. Although the operating rate of Iranian methanol decreased to 3.5 tons per day due to some device failures, it could still meet the shipping volume to China in the short term. In September 2025, China's methanol imports decreased to 142.69 tons month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected that China's methanol imports will remain high in the fourth quarter [21][23]. 2.3 Methanol Downstream Demand was Weak, and Olefin Profit Rebounded Slightly - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the operating rates of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and MTBE increased slightly week - on - week, while the operating rate of acetic acid decreased slightly. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin devices decreased slightly week - on - week. The domestic methanol - to - olefin futures profit was 10 yuan/ton, up 164 yuan/ton week - on - week and 142 yuan/ton month - on - month [25]. 2.4 Port Inventories Increased Slightly, and Inland Inventories Increased Slightly - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the methanol inventories at ports in East and South China reached 128.29 tons, up 1.31 tons week - on - week, 1.48 tons month - on - month, and 26.19 tons year - on - year. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 36.04 tons, up 0.5 tons week - on - week, 4.04 tons month - on - month, and down 7.65 tons year - on - year [31]. 2.5 The Profitability of Domestic Coal - to - Methanol Slightly Declined - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the manufacturing cost of coal - to - methanol in Northwest China was 2275 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2525 yuan/ton. With the methanol futures 2601 contract price at 2272 yuan/ton, the loss was 3 yuan/ton, and the cost - profit rate was about - 0.13%. In Shandong, the manufacturing cost was 2343 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2593 yuan/ton, with a loss of 71 yuan/ton and a cost - profit rate of about - 3.03%. In Inner Mongolia, the manufacturing cost was 2267 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2518 yuan/ton, with a profit of 5 yuan/ton and a cost - profit rate of about 0.22% [34][35]. 3. Conclusion - After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the macro - positive sentiment was digested, and the driving force of macro factors weakened. With high domestic methanol operating rate, increasing import pressure, and high port inventories, although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin profit is not good, and the weak demand situation remains to be improved. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - After the positive factors such as sanctions on Russian oil companies, the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, and South American geopolitical risks were digested, the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures stopped rising and started to decline last week. The main logic in the crude oil market is still price pressure under loose supply and demand, and geopolitical disturbances cannot reverse the trend. It is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [6][75]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot price drop and basis widening**: As of the week ending October 31, 2025, the spot price of crude oil produced in Shengli Oilfield was $61.04 per barrel, equivalent to RMB 432.6 per barrel, a significant weekly decline of $10.0 per barrel. The main contract of domestic crude oil futures, 2512, closed at RMB 458.6 per barrel, a significant weekly decline of RMB 6.3 per barrel. The basis widened slightly to RMB 26.0 per barrel [9]. - **Positive factors digested and oil price decline**: After the positive factors were digested, the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures stopped rising and started to decline last week. The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract showed a volatile downward trend, with a cumulative weekly decline of 1.33% to RMB 458.7 per barrel [12]. 3.2 Aggravation of Crude Oil Supply - Demand Surplus and Faster Production Increase - **OPEC+ production increase**: Since April 2025, OPEC+ has gradually abandoned the production - cut strategy and shifted to a "production - increase for market share" strategy. In early November, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day, the same as in October. It is expected that the daily new supply in the fourth quarter will exceed 430,000 barrels. In September 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 28.44 million barrels per day, a significant monthly increase of 524,000 barrels per day and a significant annual increase of 2.346 million barrels per day [22][23]. - **Non - OPEC production at a high level**: Non - OPEC+ countries' production expansion has further aggravated the supply surplus. As of the week ending October 24, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 420, a slight weekly increase of 2, and the daily US crude oil production was 13.644 million barrels, a slight weekly increase of 15,000 barrels per day and a significant annual increase of 144,000 barrels per day [39]. - **End of the peak demand season in the Northern Hemisphere**: After entering October, the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere ended, demand weakened, and inventory accumulation pressure increased. The three major energy institutions have different forecasts for the oil market. EIA and IEA are more pessimistic, expecting an increase in oil inventory and a decline in oil prices [41]. - **US crude oil inventory and refinery utilization rate**: As of the week ending October 24, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory decreased significantly by 6.858 million barrels week - on - week, and the refinery utilization rate was 86.6%, a slight weekly decline of 2.0 percentage points [45]. - **Increase in China's crude oil imports in September 2025**: In September 2025, China imported about 47.25 million tons of crude oil, a year - on - year increase of 3.9% and a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. Russia remained China's largest crude oil supplier, while imports from the US were almost zero [55][56]. 3.3 End of the Israel - Palestine Conflict and Cooling Geopolitical Risks - In October 2025, the Israel - Palestine conflict ended, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East decreased, causing the "geopolitical risk premium" to be squeezed out, and oil prices were under pressure. In contrast, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continued, and Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries reduced Russia's refining capacity, increasing the supply of discounted crude oil in the global market [63][66]. 3.4 Significant Weekly Decrease in Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market - Since October 2025, the prices of international crude oil futures have been under pressure. As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil decreased by 19,105 contracts compared with the August average, a decline of 15.65%. As of October 21, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds decreased by 164,564 contracts compared with the September average, a decline of 76.06% [71]. 3.5 Conclusion - After the digestion of positive factors, the main logic in the crude oil market is price pressure under loose supply and demand. Geopolitical disturbances exist but are difficult to reverse the trend. It is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [75].