投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 22 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 超产整治扰动再现，煤焦维持强势运行 核心观点 焦炭：市场再传煤矿超产整治，焦煤供应收缩预期升温，带动焦炭期货大 幅走强。7 月 21 日，焦企因亏损开启焦炭现货第二轮提涨，期货市场带动 现货氛围好转。另外，近日我国投资 1.2 万亿的雅鲁藏布江超级水电项目 开工，将长期拉动国内水泥、钢材终端需求，叠加反内卷题材持续发酵， 焦炭市场氛围整体乐观，主力合约维持强势运行。 焦煤：自 7 月中央财经委员会第六次会议和习近平山西考察以后，7 月 22 日市场传出煤矿生产情况核查、整改超产煤矿的消息，核查范围覆盖山 西、内蒙、陕西、新疆等国内煤炭主产区。若该传闻为真，则将是煤炭行 业在本轮反内卷整治的第一个重磅事件，将切实扭转焦煤后续供应格局。 此外，我国投资 1.2 万亿的雅鲁藏布江超级水电项目开工，也将拉动国内 水泥、钢材的长期需求。综上，随着利多因素不断叠加，市场乐观情绪升 温，驱动焦煤主力合约大幅上行，建议维持偏多思路，关注后续国内外政 策动态。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 22, 2025, all stock indices fluctuated slightly upward. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 1928.6 billion yuan, an increase of 201.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The current trading volume in the stock market is at a relatively high level, indicating that investors' risk appetite is relatively positive. The recent rebound of the stock indices is mainly driven by policy - positive expectations. Anti - involution policies are helpful to boost the profit margins of related industries such as photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, and resource - based cyclical stocks. The official start of the Yaxia Super Hydropower Project has boosted the risk appetite of investors in infrastructure stocks. However, since late June, some stocks have achieved significant increases, and there may be a rotation in the capital market in the future, which may slow down the upward momentum of the stock indices. It is necessary to pay attention to the policy statements of the Politburo meeting. In general, the stock indices will fluctuate strongly in the short term. Currently, the implied volatility of options has rebounded. Considering that the stock indices are more likely to rise in the medium and long term, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads for a mild bullish view [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On July 22, 2025, 50ETF rose 0.83% to close at 2.914; 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 1.06% to close at 4.201; 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.84% to close at 4.326; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.82% to close at 4118.96; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.38% to close at 6637.10; 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 1.06% to close at 6.292; 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.13% to close at 2.515; the GEM ETF rose 0.62% to close at 2.289; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.97% to close at 2.926; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.72% to close at 2792.18; the STAR 50ETF rose 0.75% to close at 1.07; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 0.87% to close at 1.04 [5]. - The PCR values of trading volume and open interest of various options changed compared with the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of 50ETF options was 67.28 (61.48 the previous day), and the open - interest PCR was 120.32 (111.70 the previous day) [6]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in August 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are provided. For example, the implied volatility of at - the - money 50ETF options in August 2025 was 13.86%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 8.25% [7]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **50ETF Options**: Include charts of 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [9][11][13][17]. - **Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF Options**: Include charts of 300ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [20]. - **Shenzhen Stock Exchange 300ETF Options**: Include charts of 300ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [23]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include charts of CSI 300 index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [37]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Include charts of CSI 1000 index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [49]. - **Shanghai Stock Exchange 500ETF Options**: Include charts of 500ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [64]. - **Shenzhen Stock Exchange 500ETF Options**: Include charts of 500ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [77]. - **GEM ETF Options**: Include charts of GEM ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [92]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Include charts of Shenzhen 100ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [101]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include charts of SSE 50 index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [114]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of STAR 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [129]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of E Fund STAR 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [132].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report predicts that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain a volatile and moderately strong trend. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of methanol 2509 are respectively "volatile", "volatile", and "volatile and moderately strong", with a reference view of "moderately strong operation" [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Situation - The methanol futures 2509 contract showed a moderately strong intraday trend and a volatile medium - term trend. On the night of Monday this week, domestic methanol futures maintained a volatile and moderately strong trend, with the futures price slightly up 0.79% to 2418 yuan/ton [1][5]. Driving Logic - **Supply - side factors**: Domestic methanol production capacity is continuously being released, increasing internal supply pressure. Overseas shipments are constantly arriving at ports, increasing external supply expectations, leading to a stockpiling cycle at ports. Meanwhile, downstream demand enters the off - season, resulting in a looser supply - demand structure [5]. - **Policy factors**: After the previous sharp correction, the negative sentiment has been released. The domestic high - level meeting set the tone for a new round of supply - side reform, which may boost domestic commodity futures [5]. - **Related product factors**: Driven by the sharp rise in coal futures prices, the methanol futures market has been affected [1][5].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the investment analysis of the rubber and synthetic rubber futures in the energy and chemical sector of commodity futures [1][5][7]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures are expected to operate in a relatively strong manner, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and relatively strong [1][5][7]. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On the night session of Monday this week, the 2509 contract of Shanghai rubber futures slightly rose 0.81% to 15,020 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: After the previous negative expectations were gradually digested, the price of Shanghai rubber futures entered an oscillatory recovery trend. The expected reduction in domestic natural rubber production areas due to the sixth typhoon this year has boosted the price, and it is expected to maintain an oscillatory and relatively strong trend on Tuesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On the night session of Monday this week, the 2509 contract of synthetic rubber futures slightly rose 1.01% to 12,015 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: After the rubber price callback digested negative factors and the recent stabilization and rebound of domestic and international crude oil futures prices, the Shanghai rubber futures continued the upward trend. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and relatively strong trend on Tuesday [7].

Report Summary Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The crude oil market is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile, and the intraday trend being volatile and slightly stronger. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Tuesday [1][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Trends - For the crude oil 2509 contract, the short - term trend is volatile, the medium - term trend is volatile, and the intraday trend is volatile and slightly stronger, with a reference view of strong operation [1]. 2. Price and Logic - After a significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has increased again, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. Although eight major oil - producing countries in OPEC and non - OPEC decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, the negative impact of the production increase is gradually digested, and the future room for further production expansion is limited. Last Friday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a volatile and slightly weaker trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed down 1.20% to 509.1 yuan per barrel [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View - For both short - term, medium - term, and intraday, the view on both coking coal (JM 2509) and coke (J 2509) is to take a bullish approach [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all upward, with a bullish investment view [1]. - **Core Logic**: Since early June, there have been news of safety and environmental production cuts in coal mines. After the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission in July and Xi Jinping's inspection in Shanxi, the expectation of anti - involution in the domestic coal industry has been fermenting. The China National Coal Transportation and Marketing Association and some enterprises have also held meetings to address involution - style competition, highlighting the current imbalance in coal supply and demand. Under the policy of "addressing involution - style competition", the long - term fundamentals of coking coal are expected to improve, driving up futures prices [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all upward, with a bullish investment view [1]. - **Core Logic**: After the first round of price increase for coke spot was implemented on the 17th, the second round of price increase started on the 21st, and the futures market has improved the spot market sentiment. The commencement of the 1.2 - trillion - yuan Yarlung Zangbo River super - hydropower project will boost the terminal demand for cement and steel in China. Coupled with the continuous fermentation of the anti - involution theme, the overall market sentiment for coke is optimistic, and the main contract remains strong [6].

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 需求韧性强劲，矿价偏强运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 观点参考 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 市场情绪偏暖，矿价强势上行，且铁矿石基本面相对良好，淡季钢厂复产积极，矿石终端消耗再 度回升，且增幅尚可，而目前钢厂盈利状况表现良好，矿石需求韧性较强，继续给予 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and reference views for the TL2509 variety are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation weakening". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loosely biased, but the possibility of a short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the financial futures stock index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the domestic macro - economic outlook is positive, with the first - half economic data showing resilience and the second - half pressure on stable growth reduced. There are a large number of central bank reverse repurchases maturing this week, causing market interest rates to rise. Considering the anchoring effect of policy rates, the upward space for market interest rates is limited. A loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, but the short - term possibility is low, and the downward space for interest rates is also limited. So, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation weakening", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loosely biased, but the short - term possibility of an interest rate cut is low [1]. 2. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back yesterday, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures having the largest decline. The domestic macro - economic outlook is positive, the first - half economic data shows resilience, and the second - half pressure on stable growth is reduced. There are a large number of central bank reverse repurchases maturing this week, causing market interest rates to rise. Considering the anchoring effect of policy rates, the upward space for market interest rates is limited. A loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, but the short - term possibility is low, and the downward space for interest rates is also limited. So, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate in the short term [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and copper, suggesting a short - term bullish outlook for both metals [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: New York gold has again exceeded the $3400 mark, and Shanghai gold has exceeded the 785 yuan mark. Since July, the US dollar index has rebounded and showed a high - level decline yesterday, facing pressure at the 60 - day moving average [3]. - **Viewpoints**: Short - term view is upward, medium - term is sideways, and intraday is sideways - bullish. The overall reference view is short - term bullish [1][3]. - **Core Logic**: The decline of the US dollar is beneficial to the gold price. As the Fed's interest - rate meeting on July 30 and the important US tariff time point on August 1 approach, market risk appetite may decline. Technically, gold has broken through the sideways high since July with strong upward momentum [1][3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Last Friday night, Shanghai copper increased positions and rose, with the main contract price exceeding the 79,000 yuan mark. On Monday, it continued to increase positions and rise during the day, approaching the 80,000 yuan mark and maintaining a strong performance at night. The monthly spread of Shanghai copper has been weakening, in line with the macro - market feature of near - term weakness and far - term strength [5]. - **Viewpoints**: Short - term view is upward, medium - term is upward, and intraday is upward. The overall reference view is short - term bullish [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: After the market digested the impact of US tariffs, the improvement of domestic and international macro - economies has pushed up the copper price. Good US economic data last Thursday and the upcoming release of a growth - stabilization plan for ten key industries in China have led to a general rise in commodities. On the industrial level, with the continuous emergence of domestic macro - positives, industrial expectations may improve, and the inventory of electrolytic copper decreased significantly on Monday [1][5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is a rise, the medium - term view is a strong - biased oscillation, and the intraday view is a weak - biased oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the optimistic sentiment persists and the steel price oscillates upwards [2]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is still prone to pressure during the off - season, but the current industrial contradictions are not significant. The expectation of policy benefits boosts market sentiment, and the strong raw materials provide cost support, so the steel price continues the oscillatory upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, short - term is rising, medium - term is strong - biased oscillation, intraday is weak - biased oscillation. The view is to pay attention to the MA5 line support, with the core logic of persistent optimistic sentiment and rising steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The optimistic sentiment persists and the steel price rises strongly. The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. The production of construction steel mills weakens, the rebar output declines continuously, and the supply contracts. However, the profit per ton of the variety is good and some varieties start to switch production, so the positive effect is not strong [3]. - The rebar demand also weakens. The high - frequency demand indicators remain at the low level in the same period in recent years, showing obvious off - season characteristics. The downstream industries have not improved, and the weak demand is likely to put pressure on the steel price [3]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is still prone to pressure during the off - season, but the current industrial contradictions are not significant. The expectation of policy benefits boosts market sentiment, and the strong raw materials provide cost support, so the steel price continues the oscillatory upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3].