Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For both Jiao Coal (JM) and Coke (J) in the 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias". The overall reference view is an "oscillation approach" [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Jiao Coal (JM) - **Price行情驱动逻辑**: As of the week ending October 31, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 75.8 thousand tons, a weekly decrease of 0.3 thousand tons per day, and 2.2 thousand tons per day lower than the same period last year. From October 20th to 25th, the total number of Mongolian coal trucks passing through the 288 - port was 4,814, a weekly decrease of 2,406 trucks. Due to the political turmoil in Mongolia in the middle of the month, the customs clearance efficiency dropped significantly, but it has returned to normal this week, with the daily number of trucks increasing to about 1,200. On the demand side, as of the week ending October 31, the total daily average output of coke from all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 110.8 thousand tons, a weekly increase of 0.08 thousand tons. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of Jiao Coal has no significant change. The upward driving force mainly comes from the macro - level benefits brought by the relaxation of Sino - US trade relations, as well as the strong expectations of safety supervision and anti - involution on Jiao Coal supply [5]. 3.2 Coke (J) - **Price行情驱动逻辑**: As of the week ending October 31, the total daily average output of coke from all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 110.8 thousand tons, a weekly increase of 0.08 thousand tons. After the second round of price increase of coke was implemented, the profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants monitored by Steel Union was - 32 yuan/ton, a weekly improvement of 9 yuan, but still in a loss state, and the production enthusiasm has not significantly improved. The coking enterprises still have the intention to raise prices. On the demand side, the daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel mills nationwide was 236.36 thousand tons, a weekly decrease of 3.54 thousand tons per day, and the profitability rate decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 45.02%. Overall, the supply of coke is stable, the demand is declining, and the fundamentals are marginally weakening. However, during the week, the meeting between Chinese and US leaders reached multiple economic and trade consensuses, and the cooling of trade frictions has improved the market sentiment, so the coke futures temporarily maintain high - level operation [6].

Report Information - Report Name: Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report (November 4, 2025) [1] - Report Source: Baocheng Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core View - The report presents the basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads data of various futures varieties including thermal coal, energy and chemical products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures on different dates from October 28 to November 3, 2025, with the aim of providing reference data for investors [1][5][21][27][42][53] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The basis data for thermal coal from October 28 to November 3, 2025, are - 31.4, - 31.4, - 31.4, - 31.4, - 21.4 respectively. The spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month are all 0.0 [1][2] 3.2 Energy and Chemical Products 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from October 28 to November 3, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of fuel oil is - 49.21 on November 3, 2025 [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: Basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from October 28 to November 3, 2025, are provided. For instance, the basis of rubber is - 445 on November 3, 2025 [9] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are reported. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber is 80 [11] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3*methanol) from October 28 to November 3, 2025, are given. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread is 2230 on November 3, 2025 [11] 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar is 64.0 [20] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, rebar - hot rolled coil) from October 28 to November 3, 2025, are provided. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio is 3.91 on November 3, 2025 [20] - **Basis**: Basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from October 28 to November 3, 2025, are reported. For example, the basis of rebar is 131.0 on November 3, 2025 [21] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from October 28 to November 3, 2025, are given. For example, the basis of copper is - 490 on November 3, 2025 [28] 3.4.2 London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on November 3, 2025, are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper is (14.44) [36] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: Basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from October 28 to November 3, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 is - 96 on November 3, 2025 [43] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are reported. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 is 36 [43] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads (soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc.) from October 28 to November 3, 2025, are given. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio is 1.92 on November 3, 2025 [43] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: Basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from October 28 to November 3, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 is 18.60 on November 3, 2025 [54] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are reported. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 is - 38.2 [56]

Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The report provides intraday, short - term, and medium - term views and core logics for three agricultural commodity futures: soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil. It analyzes the price driving factors of each commodity and points out future areas of concern [5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Price View**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [5] - **Core Logic**: U.S. soybean futures prices are above 1100 cents per bushel, supported by the expectation of Sino - U.S. trade relaxation and the news that China plans to purchase 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans. However, the key report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on November 14 may bring uncertainties. If the report lowers the yield per unit, it may strengthen the strong oscillation of U.S. soybeans. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal has risen slightly due to poor crushing margins of oil mills and strong price - holding intentions. But the demand side is affected by breeding losses, and the decline in Brazilian premium will limit the rebound of soybean meal futures prices. In the short term, the supply pressure in the domestic industrial chain will still restrict the rebound space of futures prices [5][6] - **Future Concerns**: South American weather and the actual fulfillment of purchases [6] Palm Oil (P) - **Price View**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5][7] - **Core Logic**: Malaysia's palm oil production in October increased by 5.55% month - on - month. The current loose supply - demand pattern of palm oil is difficult to change in the short term. The contradiction between the increase in Malaysian palm oil production and weak exports is prominent, and the weakening demand after India's Diwali festival intensifies the inventory accumulation expectation. In addition, the high port inventory of palm oil in China has increased the pressure on the domestic palm oil market. In the short term, palm oil futures prices are oscillating weakly, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower integer level [7] - **Future Concerns**: Production and sales data in Southeast Asia and the inventory reduction rhythm in China [7] Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price View**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5] - **Core Influencing Factors**: Sino - U.S. relations, U.S. biofuel policy, U.S. soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [5]

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth rate at constant prices in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year-on-year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - Manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 49.0%, down from 49.8% in the previous month and 50.1% in the same period last year [1] - Non-manufacturing PMI for business activities in October 2025 was 50.1%, up slightly from 50.0% in the previous month but down from 50.2% in the same period last year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - China's S&P Manufacturing PMI in October was 50.6, down from 51.2 in the previous month, with the expansion trend slowing [2] - In the first three quarters, the added value of large-scale electronic information manufacturing increased by 10.9% year-on-year, outperforming the overall industry and high-tech manufacturing [2] - China and the EU held export control dialogue consultations in Brussels, aiming to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains [2] 2.2 Metals - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China suspended and then resumed its gold accumulation business on November 3 [5] - Lithium carbonate prices have been rising recently, driven by unexpected demand and accelerated inventory depletion [6] - The three-month zinc futures on the London Metal Exchange reached $3,097 per ton, a new high since December 2024 [6] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Baosteel adjusted its production capacity target to "over 80 million tons", focusing on synergy and value creation [8] - Global iron ore shipments from October 27 to November 2 decreased by 174.5 tons compared to the previous period [8] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On November 3, the main contract of US crude oil closed higher after OPEC+ decided to suspend the planned production increase in Q1 2026 [9] - BP's CEO expects electricity demand to grow from 1% to 10% of the global economy in the next 5 - 10 years, driven by AI [9] 2.5 Agricultural Products - As of last Thursday, the planting progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop reached 47% of the expected area [11] - India's soybean oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year soared by 61.6% year-on-year to a record 5.56 million tons [11] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On November 3, the central bank conducted 783 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 259 billion yuan [12] 3.2 Key News - China's S&P Manufacturing PMI expansion slowed in October, but upcoming policies may support the index [13] - Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for China's export growth and real GDP growth [15] - The 8th China International Import Expo will be held from November 5 - 10 in Shanghai [15] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market showed narrow fluctuations, with long-term bonds performing slightly better [19] - The main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly declined, and the 30-year main contract fell 0.11% [19] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1225 against the US dollar on November 3, down 90 points from the previous trading day [24] - The US dollar index rose 0.15% to 99.87 in New York trading [24] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - Xingzheng Fixed Income believes that the bond market will likely remain range-bound, and investors should focus on medium-term, high-coupon credit bonds [25] - Yangtze River Fixed Income expects the bond market to recover in Q4, with the yield of the 10-year treasury bond (tax-exempt) potentially falling to 1.65% - 1.7% [25] 4. Stock Market Key News - A shares rebounded after hitting a low, with Hainan Free Trade Zone and AI application themes leading the gains [30] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to 3,976.52 points, and the total turnover of A shares was 2.13 trillion yuan [30] - The Hang Seng Index rose 0.97% to 26,158.36 points, and southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$5.472 billion [30]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The natural rubber market is in a pattern of "high supply pressure and insufficient demand support", with a bearish fundamental outlook. Rubber prices will continue to oscillate weakly under the repeated game between macro - sentiment fluctuations and industrial realities [4]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Supply - Side Situation - The production of natural rubber is increasing. Currently in the peak rubber - tapping season, the weather in domestic production areas such as Hainan and Yunnan is stable, and the impact of Typhoon "Meykhla" in early October was limited. The production of rubber forests quickly recovered, and new rubber output increased steadily. In Southeast Asia, countries like Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam are also in the full - scale rubber - tapping cycle, with stable output growth. From January to August, the total rubber production of ANRPC member countries reached 6.8536 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65,000 tons or 0.96%. Thailand's production increased by 3.00% year - on - year, and exports increased by 7.85% year - on - year [2]. - The inventory pressure is high. From January to September, China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 6.115 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.2%. The cumulative imports of natural rubber were 4.7172 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.65%. In October, with the large - scale listing of new rubber and the concentrated arrival of imports, the inventory de - stocking rhythm in Qingdao Port slowed down, and there were signs of re - accumulation. The inventory level of the entire supply chain exerts strong pressure on rubber prices [3]. Demand - Side Situation - The demand in the tire industry is weak. The demand in the domestic tire industry is structurally differentiated and overall sluggish. Due to the seasonal weakening of terminal demand and some enterprises' active adjustment of production rhythms to cope with inventory pressure, the operating load of the tire industry has declined. The growth rate of tire exports has also slowed down, and the export market faces certain resistance. As of the week ending October 31, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56 percentage points but a year - on - year decrease of 5.90 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.30%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.57 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.20 percentage points. The demand for full - steel tires will remain weak due to insufficient construction starts in real estate and infrastructure projects, which in turn suppresses the demand for whole latex [4]. Market Performance - The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a weak downward trend. Last Friday, it fell 2.65% to 15,085 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 1.63% last week [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 4, 2025, the Shanghai Rubber Futures 2601 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening oscillations, and a slight decline. After the weakening of macro - driving factors, the domestic rubber market returned to a situation dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. The 1 - 5 month spread discount widened to 90 yuan/ton [6]. - On the same day, the domestic Methanol Futures 2601 contract presented a pattern of increasing volume, increasing positions, weakening downward movement, and a significant decline. Suppressed by the weak supply - demand fundamentals of domestic methanol, the 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weak pattern [6]. - Also on that day, the domestic Crude Oil Futures 2512 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, strengthening oscillations, and a slight increase. With the rapid escalation of geopolitical risks in South America and OPEC's suspension of capacity expansion in the first quarter of next year, the supply expectation changed, boosting the confidence of oil market bulls [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 43.22 million tons, a decrease of 0.53 million tons or 1.20% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.29% to 6.87 million tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.18% to 36.35 million tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 3.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.61 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.89 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.54 percentage points [9]. - In the week of October 31, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.4%, a slight increase of 0.56 percentage points week - on - week but a significant decline of 5.90 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.30%, a slight decrease of 0.57 percentage points week - on - week and a slight decrease of 3.20 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, a rebound of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The new order index showed stable expansion. In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 17.1% and 14.9%. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative automobile production and sales were 24.333 million and 24.363 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 12.9%. In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, achieving six consecutive months of growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market was about 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 83.88%, a slight increase of 1.67% week - on - week, 1.17% month - on - month, and 1.78% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.9681 million tons, a slight increase of 24,600 tons week - on - week, a significant increase of 95,400 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 85,100 tons compared with 1.883 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the same week, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.98%, a slight increase of 0.01% week - on - week. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 9.79%, a slight increase of 1.45% week - on - week. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 72.32%, a slight decrease of 1.29% week - on - week. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 56.50%, a slight increase of 0.01% week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 84.18%, a slight decrease of 2.27 percentage points week - on - week and a slight increase of 1.15% month - on - month. As of October 31, 2025, the futures profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was 10 yuan/ton, a slight recovery of 164 yuan/ton week - on - week and a slight rebound of 142 yuan/ton month - on - month [11]. - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 1.2829 million tons, a slight increase of 13,100 tons week - on - week, 14,800 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 261,900 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory reached 360,400 tons, a slight increase of 5,000 tons week - on - week, 40,400 tons month - on - month, and a significant decrease of 76,500 tons compared with 436,900 tons in the same period last year [12][14]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 420, a slight increase of 2 compared with the previous week and a decrease of 60 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.644 million barrels, a slight increase of 15,000 barrels/day week - on - week and a significant increase of 144,000 barrels/day year - on - year, reaching a historical high [15]. - As of the same week, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 416 million barrels, a significant decrease of 6.858 million barrels week - on - week and 9.543 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 22.565 million barrels, a slight increase of 1.334 million barrels week - on - week. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 409.1 million barrels, a slight increase of 533,000 barrels week - on - week. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 86.6%, a slight decline of 2.0 percentage points week - on - week, a significant decrease of 4.8 percentage points month - on - month, and a slight decline of 2.5 percentage points year - on - year [15]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 102,958 contracts, a significant increase of 4,249 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts or 15.65% compared with the average in August. As of October 28, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 173,887 contracts, a significant increase of 122,096 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 42,468 contracts or 19.63% compared with the average in September [16]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,800 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,095 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | - 295 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,175 yuan/ton | - 37 yuan/ton | 2,143 yuan/ton | - 37 yuan/ton | +32 yuan/ton | +37 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 435.8 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 467.9 yuan/barrel | +9.2 yuan/barrel | - 32.1 yuan/barrel | - 9.3 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber - related charts include the rubber basis chart, the Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory chart, the Qingdao Free Trade Zone rubber inventory chart, the full - steel tire operating rate trend chart, and the semi - steel tire operating rate trend chart [18][20][26]. - Methanol - related charts include the methanol basis chart, the methanol 1 - 5 month spread chart, the methanol domestic port inventory chart, the methanol inland social inventory chart, the methanol - to - olefin operating rate change chart, and the coal - to - methanol cost accounting chart [31][33][35]. - Crude - oil - related charts include the crude oil basis chart, the Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory chart, the US crude oil commercial inventory chart, the US refinery operating rate chart, the WTI crude oil net position holding change chart, and the Brent crude oil net position holding change chart [44][46][48].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2025 年第 44 周） 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 3314.10 万吨，环比大增 1229.80 万吨，前期压货集中到港；其中澳矿到货量 环比增 583.80 万吨，巴西矿到货环比增 428.40 万吨，其他地区矿则是增 217.60 万吨。 2、海外矿石发运延续下行，全球矿石发运总量为 3213.80 万吨，环比降 174.55 万吨。各地发运均有 所，但整体降幅不大，其中澳矿发运环比降 89.24 万吨，巴西矿发运降 77.42 万吨，非澳巴矿发运微降 7.89 万吨。主流矿商发运增减互现，四大矿商发运量合计下降 34.24 万吨，减量最大为 FMG。 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量将高位回落，海外矿石供应延续高位平稳运行。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 网址：www.bcqhgs.com 1 地址：杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, each stock index hit the bottom and rebounded, showing a volatile consolidation throughout the day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.1329 trillion yuan, a decrease of 216.9 billion yuan from the previous day. The policy - favorable expectations brought by the "15th Five - Year Plan" are gradually fermenting, providing strong support for the stock index. However, as it enters November, the incremental expectations of domestic policies are decreasing, and the impact of the easing of external risks is diminishing at the margin. The upward driving force has weakened in the short term. As the valuation of stocks rises, the willingness of profitable funds to take profits has increased, and there is still a need for a short - term technical adjustment of the stock index. In general, under the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy - favorable expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of funds, the stock index will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. Currently, the implied volatility of options remains relatively stable. Considering the long - term upward trend of the stock index, it is advisable to maintain a bullish spread or covered - call strategy [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Option Indicators - **Stock Index Performance**: On November 3, 2025, the 50ETF rose 0.03% to close at 3.161; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.15% to close at 4.763; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.26% to close at 4.919; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.27% to close at 4653.40; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.42% to close at 7538.12; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.04% to close at 7.439; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.03% to close at 2.968; the GEM ETF rose 0.32% to close at 3.176; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.14% to close at 3.571; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.16% to close at 3016.35; the STAR 50ETF fell 1.21% to close at 1.47; the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 1.18% to close at 1.43 [6]. - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various options showed different changes compared with the previous trading day. For example, the volume PCR of the SSE 50ETF option was 101.59 (previous day: 114.12), and the open interest PCR was 87.68 (previous day: 89.00) [7]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of the 2025 November at - the - money options and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options were also provided. For instance, the implied volatility of the SSE 50ETF option's 2025 November at - the - money option was 15.01%, and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 12.69% [8]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - The report includes a series of charts for different types of options, such as the SSE 50ETF option, SSE 300ETF option, etc. These charts show the trends of the underlying assets, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curves, and the at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [10][20][33].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: As of the week ending October 31, the total daily coke output of all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.108 million tons, with a slight weekly increase of 800 tons. After the second round of coke price hikes, the per - ton coke profit of 30 independent coking plants was - 32 yuan/ton, improving by 9 yuan week - on - week but still in a loss. Demand side, the daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.3636 million tons, down 35,400 tons/day week - on - week, and the profitability rate dropped by 2.6 percentage points to 45.02%. Overall, coke supply stabilized while demand declined, but due to the Sino - US summit consensus, the coke futures remained high [6][35]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending October 31, the daily output of clean coking coal from 523 coking coal mines was 758,000 tons, down 3,000 tons/day week - on - week and 22,000 tons/day lower than the same period last year. From October 20th to 25th, the total customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the 288 - port was 4,814 vehicles, down 2,406 vehicles week - on - week. Now, the port has returned to normal with a daily customs - clearance vehicle number of around 1,200. The total daily coke output of all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.108 million tons, with a slight weekly increase of 800 tons. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of coking coal did not change significantly, and the upward drive came from macro - level benefits due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and strong expectations for coking coal supply from safety inspections and anti - cut - throat competition [7][36]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry News - **Fed's Interest - Rate Stance**: Fed Governor Christopher Waller advocated for a rate cut in December, worried about the labor market slowdown, which contrasted with other Fed officials' warnings about inflation risks [9]. - **Coking Coal Price**: On November 3, the coking coal price in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur prime coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) at 1,600 yuan/ton cash - inclusive [10]. 2. Spot Market - **Coke**: The current price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke was 1,570 yuan/ton, up 3.29% week - on - week; Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke was 1,560 yuan/ton, up 4.70% week - on - week [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The current price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimao Port was 1,390 yuan/ton, up 6.11% week - on - week; Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,660 yuan/ton, up 1.22% week - on - week; Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,740 yuan/ton, with no weekly change [11]. 3. Futures Market - **Coke**: The closing price of the active coke futures contract was 1,771.5, down 1.17, with a trading volume of 21,422 and an open interest of 39,630 [14]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the active coking coal futures contract was 1,284.5, down 0.85, with a trading volume of 1,020,691 and an open interest of 669,763 [14]. 5. Future Outlook - **Coke**: The supply stabilized and demand declined, but due to Sino - US trade relations improvement, the coke futures remained high [6][35]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply - demand pattern did not change significantly, and the upward drive came from macro - level benefits and supply - side expectations [7][36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices first declined and then rose today. In the afternoon, the domestic macro - atmosphere improved, and the non - ferrous sector as a whole went up. On the industrial level, electrolytic copper slightly increased in inventory on Monday. The short - term main contract price of Shanghai copper has rebounded from the 10 - day moving average for two consecutive days. Continuously monitor the technical support at this position [4]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices significantly increased with rising positions today, especially in the afternoon. The main contract price closed above the 20,600 yuan mark at the end of the session. Aluminum is relatively more affected by the domestic macro situation. Recently, the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the increasing expectation of anti - involution in China are beneficial to aluminum prices. On the industrial level, electrolytic aluminum slightly increased in inventory on Monday. Technically, pay attention to the high - level pressure in November 2024 [5]. - **Nickel**: The main contract price of Shanghai nickel fluctuated around 121,000 yuan today. The upward movement of the non - ferrous sector in the afternoon had little impact on nickel. The weakness on the industrial level makes funds more inclined to short - allocate nickel to hedge long positions in non - ferrous metals. Technically, pay attention to the high - level pressure in late October [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On November 3, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 203,000 tons, an increase of 13,800 tons from last Thursday. Affected by the sharp rise in copper prices last week, the supply of recycled copper raw materials increased, the spread between refined and scrap copper widened, leading to an increase in the output of scrap - produced anode copper smelting enterprises. The average processing fee of anode plates increased by 350 yuan/ton to 750 yuan/ton [8]. - **Aluminum**: On November 3, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 614,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from last Thursday [9]. - **Nickel**: On November 3, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,500 - 123,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,000 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,500 - 2,700 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,600 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 300 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [11][12][13]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum average price and premium, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), aluminum bar inventory, etc [23][24][26]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc [35][37][38].