1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock indices continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. The total trading volume of the stock market was 1405.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 91.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The main support for the stock indices comes from the expectation of favorable policies in the future. Due to the instability of domestic demand and the weak performance of credit and inflation data, the policy side needs to introduce policies to support economic demand. The market is concerned about the policy guidance of the Politburo meeting in July. Since the stock indices have risen significantly since late June, the short - term upward momentum has weakened, and the recent decline in trading volume indicates that the market's enthusiasm for chasing up has cooled down. In general, the short - term driving force of the market has weakened, and the stock indices are expected to fluctuate within a range. - Currently, the implied volatility of options has rebounded. In the medium and long term, the stock indices are more likely to rise, and bull spreads or ratio spreads long - position portfolios can be arranged [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On July 2, 2025, the 50ETF rose 0.21% to close at 2.816; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.10% to close at 3.992; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.02% to close at 4.117; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.02% to close at 3943.68; the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.01% to close at 6309.48; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.59% to close at 5.947; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.54% to close at 2.377; the ChiNext ETF fell 1.03% to close at 2.104; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.33% to close at 2.722; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.18% to close at 2722.55; the STAR 50ETF fell 1.24% to close at 1.04; the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 1.18% to close at 1.01 [6]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on July 2, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are provided in detail, including 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, etc. [7]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in July 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are provided, such as the implied volatility of 50ETF options at - the - money options in July 2025 is 11.88%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 8.36% [8][9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Include charts of the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [10][11][12]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts of the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [22][23]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts of the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [25][26]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include charts of the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [39][40]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Include charts of the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [52][53]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [66][67]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [79][80]. - **ChiNext ETF Options**: Include charts of the ChiNext ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [91][92]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Include charts of the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [104][105]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include charts of the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [117][118]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [131][132]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [134][135].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-07-02 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需结构不佳，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普发表评论预示伊朗和以色列冲突将结束，市场交易地缘逻辑弱化。 随后消息传出伊朗和以色列宣布正式停火。这引发投资者大幅调整预期，认为中东地缘因素对于油 价的影响不会进一步激化，后期地缘 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-07-02 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普发表评论预示伊朗和以色列冲突将结束，市场交易地缘逻辑弱化。 随后消息传出伊朗和以色列宣布正式停火。这引发投资者大幅调整预期，认为中东地缘因素对于油 价的影响不会进一步激化，后期地缘溢价会进一步回落。在经历前期大幅回落以后，本周油市步 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run weakly in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday, with a focus on their weak supply - demand structures [1][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term:震荡; Mid - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Overall reference view:偏弱运行 [1][5] - **Core Logic**: As geopolitical factors weaken, the marginal positive effect of common factors for energy and chemical commodity futures decreases, and the negative factors of the weak supply - demand structure in the rubber market re - dominate. Supply is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and high monthly output pressure. Downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed, and terminal demand has entered the off - season. Although the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained a stable oscillating trend on Tuesday night, rising 0.36% to 14025 yuan/ton, it lacks upward space. It is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Wednesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term:震荡; Mid - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Overall reference view:偏弱运行 [1][7] - **Core Logic**: As geopolitical factors weaken, the marginal positive effect of common factors for energy and chemical commodity futures decreases, and the negative factors of the weak supply - demand structure in the synthetic rubber market re - dominate. The operating loads of some private cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber plants in East and South China have slightly increased, driving up last week's production and capacity utilization rate. Downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed, and terminal demand has entered the off - season. In the context of a weak supply - demand structure, the 2508 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures showed a weakly oscillating trend on Tuesday night, falling 0.89% to 11120 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Wednesday [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For gold, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways movement with a slight upward bias. The recommended approach is to wait and see. The core logic is that the rising expectations of interest rate cuts and tariffs are beneficial to the gold price [1]. - For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all upward. The recommended approach is to be bullish in the short - term. The core logic is that the recovery of macro - risk appetite drives the copper price up [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Price Performance**: The gold price rebounded significantly yesterday. After the Asian market closed, the overseas market continued to rebound, and both domestic and overseas gold prices rose above the 60 - day moving average again [3]. - **Core Logic**: The recent increase in market expectations of interest rate cuts and the continuous weakening of the US dollar index have provided strong support for the gold price. FedWatch Tool data shows that the probability of three interest rate cuts this year exceeds 50%. Also, Trump not extending the deadline for trade - agreement negotiations has increased market concerns about US tariffs, leading to a significant rebound in the gold price. However, the overall market is not overly pessimistic as the US stock market has only slightly corrected from its high. Continued attention should be paid to the multi - empty game around the 60 - day moving average [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: The copper price increased significantly with increased positions at the end of trading yesterday, and the main contract price rose to around 80,700 yuan [5]. - **Core Logic**: At the macro level, the rising expectations of Fed interest rate cuts and the continuous decline of the US dollar index are beneficial to the copper price. At the industrial level, the premium of LME copper has strengthened significantly recently, indicating a shortage of overseas electrolytic copper in the spot market. In China, the social inventory of electrolytic copper has been continuously decreasing, and downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to replenish stocks. The combination of macro and industrial positive factors has pushed up the copper price. Technically, after the main copper contract price broke through 80,000 yuan, it increased significantly with increased positions, showing strong upward momentum. It is expected that the contract price will maintain a strong trend, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 制造业 PMI 数据边际向好 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 7 月 2 日） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理。最新的制造业 PMI 数据边际向好，加上央行二季度例会对降 息降准的表述有所弱化，国债的风险偏好有所下降。不过目前内需仍存在结构性问题 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price of rebar is expected to continue the oscillatory trend. The supply pressure of rebar is increasing while the demand is poor, and the fundamentals are in a seasonal weak state, but the low inventory level results in few real - world contradictions. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production restrictions [2][3]. 3) Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively. It is suggested to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the weak fundamentals in the off - season and the continuous oscillation of steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - Production restriction disturbances have emerged, leading to a switch in the strength of black varieties. The fundamentals of rebar are weakly stable in the off - season. Construction steel mills have increased production, and the weekly output has been continuously rising, resulting in increasing supply pressure. In contrast, the demand for rebar is poor, and high - frequency demand indicators continue to show a weak trend, with obvious off - season demand characteristics, which will still suppress steel prices. Although the supply disturbances have caused the steel price to oscillate upwards, the supply pressure is increasing and the demand is poor. The low inventory level is a relative positive factor, and it is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production restrictions [3].

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 7 月 2 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：随着美国农业部的种植面积报告和库存报告公布，数据喜忧参半，美豆期价近弱远强，美豆种 植面积低于预期兑远月美豆期价构成支撑。种植面积争议尘埃落地后，市场焦点转向 7-8 月天气扰动下单 产的调整，这也将成为影响美豆期价的核心。短期豆类期价下探空间受限，随着市场情绪逐渐回稳，豆粕 期价或转为震荡偏强运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：油脂市场窄幅波动，市场情绪逐渐回稳，资金变化不大 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of Iron Ore 2509 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the resurgence of production restrictions has put pressure on the price of iron ore, causing it to weaken [2]. - The short - term trend of iron ore will continue to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production restrictions. Although the demand for iron ore shows good resilience, there are concerns about demand due to the resurgence of production restrictions, and the supply is relatively stable, so the supply - demand pattern has not improved substantially [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2509, in the short - term (within a week), the trend is expected to be volatile; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it is also volatile; and intraday, it is weakly volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the resurgence of production restrictions has put pressure on the price of iron ore [2]. Market Driving Logic - The resurgence of production restrictions has put pressure on the prices of raw material - related futures. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mills are actively producing, and the demand for iron ore shows good resilience, which supports the price of iron ore, but the incremental space in the off - season is questionable. - After the end - of - fiscal - year shipment rush, the shipments of overseas miners have declined, and attention should be paid to the subsequent decline. The port arrivals have also decreased, and the overseas supply of iron ore has shrunk. However, the domestic iron ore production has recovered actively, so the overall supply contraction is limited. - Currently, the demand for iron ore shows good resilience, which supports the price, but due to the resurgence of production restrictions, there are concerns about demand, and the supply is relatively stable. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved substantially, and the short - term trend will continue to be volatile [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Threaded Steel**: The main contract price rose strongly with a daily increase of 2.61%, and the volume and open interest expanded. Currently, supply pressure is increasing while demand is poor, and the fundamentals are seasonally weak, putting pressure on steel prices. However, inventories are at a low level, and the real - world contradictions are not significant. With the fermentation of capacity - exit policy expectations, steel prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen, subject to policy developments [4]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The main contract price strengthened with a 2.24% daily increase, and the volume and open interest expanded. Supply policy expectations have reappeared, and market sentiment is positive, leading to a continuous rise in hot - rolled coil prices. But the fundamentals have not improved, with supply remaining high and demand weakening, so the upward driving force is questionable. Policy situations should be closely monitored [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price strengthened again with a 1.69% daily increase, volume increased while open interest decreased. Currently, ore demand shows some resilience, supporting ore prices. However, production - restriction disturbances have reappeared, raising concerns about demand. Supply is relatively stable, and the supply - demand pattern has not improved substantially. The short - term trend will continue to be volatile, depending on policy implementation [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - **Real Estate**: In H1 2025, the total land acquisition amount of the top 100 real - estate enterprises increased by 33.3% year - on - year, and the growth rate was 4.5 percentage points higher than the previous month. Competition for high - quality plots in core cities was fierce, driving up the transfer fees in 300 cities, but the transaction area still declined, and the premium rate has been falling since May [6]. - **Household Air - Conditioners**: In May 2025, China's household air - conditioner exports increased slightly, with export volume up 0.1% year - on - year, export value up 2.3%, and export unit price up 2.2%. The growth was due to last year's high base and the "rush - to - export" behavior of enterprises. As the export season enters the off - season and the trade environment is complex, enterprises are cautious, and the export production plans from June to August have been adjusted downwards, indicating growth pressure in H2 [7]. - **Iron Ore Projects**: In June 2025, 5 iron - ore - related projects were approved in Hebei Province, including 2 mine development projects, 1 enterprise investment project, and 1 water - supply installation project [8]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot prices of threaded steel, hot - rolled coils, and other steel products showed certain changes. For example, the national average price of threaded steel was 3,226 yuan, up 21 yuan; the national average price of hot - rolled coils was 3,242 yuan, up 18 yuan [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 712 yuan, up 12 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 683 yuan, down 2 yuan [9]. Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease (%) | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Threaded Steel | 3,065 | 2.61 | 2,371,284 | 2,226,379 | | Hot - Rolled Coils | 3,191 | 2.24 | 920,428 | 1,595,758 | | Iron Ore | 722.5 | 1.69 | 449,251 | 647,875 | [11] Related Charts - **Steel Inventories**: Included charts on the weekly changes and total inventories of threaded steel and hot - rolled coils, showing historical data from multiple years [13][14][16]. - **Iron Ore Inventories**: Included charts on the inventories of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as their seasonal changes and month - on - month changes [18][19][24]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Included charts on the blast - furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building - material independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills [27][30][35]. Market Outlook - **Threaded Steel**: Supply pressure is increasing as production has risen, and demand is weak. However, low inventories and policy expectations may support prices to fluctuate and strengthen [35]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Supply remains high, and demand is weakening. Although prices are rising due to policy expectations, the upward driving force is uncertain [36]. - **Iron Ore**: Demand shows some resilience, but production - restriction concerns exist. Supply is relatively stable, and the short - term trend will be volatile [37].