Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The iron ore market's supply-demand pattern has changed, with weakening steel mill production, declining terminal ore consumption, and unresolved industrial contradictions in the steel market, leading to expected weakening demand. Meanwhile, the supply pressure is increasing due to high arrivals at domestic ports and high shipments from miners. The high-valued ore price is likely to be under pressure and decline in a high-level volatile manner, but there is resistance to the decline due to high rigid demand. The focus should be on the production situation of steel mills [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short-term view is weakly volatile, the medium-term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the weakening supply-demand pattern and the oscillating decline of ore prices [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply-demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mill production is weakening, terminal ore consumption is continuously declining, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market remain unresolved, so demand is expected to weaken. At the same time, the arrivals of ore at domestic ports are high, and miners' shipments are also at a high level. Overseas ore supply is active at high prices, and domestic ore supply has recovered, increasing the supply pressure. Currently, ore supply remains high, demand is expected to decrease, and the fundamentals of the ore market are weakening. The high-valued ore price is prone to be under pressure and run weakly, but there is resistance to the decline due to high rigid demand. It is expected to show a high-level volatile decline trend, and the focus should be on the production situation of steel mills [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The overall view for the commodities in the agricultural futures sector, including soymeal, palm oil, and soy oil, is "oscillating weakly" in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soymeal (M) - **Price Trend**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic soymeal market has a loose supply - demand pattern, with prices under pressure. Oil mill operating rates are gradually recovering, increasing supply pressure. Downstream aquaculture losses have worsened, making feed enterprises cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak consumption. Spot basis is under pressure. The short - term fundamentals are lackluster, and the market is greatly affected by sentiment. With the changing prospects of Sino - US trade, soymeal futures prices are generally weak [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill start - up rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [7]. - **Core Logic**: India's palm oil imports in September decreased by 16.3% month - on - month, with demand shifting to soy oil, causing a recent slight correction in domestic palm oil futures and spot prices. Although Malaysia's palm oil export data in the first half of October is strong, factors such as inventory pressure, fluctuating trade relations between countries, and weak international oil prices are still dragging down palm oil futures prices. Before market sentiment recovers, palm oil futures prices will oscillate weakly [7]. - **Influencing Factors**: Biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soy Oil (2601) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating weakly, with a reference view of oscillating weakly [6]. - **Influencing Factors**: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soy oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For the 2601 contract of coking coal, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is rising, and the reference view is a volatile approach. The core logic is that strong expectations still exist, and coking coal runs strongly [1]. - For the 2601 contract of coke, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is slightly stronger in a volatile state, and the reference view is a volatile approach. The core logic is that strong cost support leads to coke oscillating strongly [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - Production: As of the week ending October 17, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 77.9 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7 thousand tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.6 thousand tons [5]. - Imports: Since October 8, the Ganqimaodu Port has resumed operations, and the daily number of passing vehicles has returned to around 1100 - 1300 [5]. - Demand: The combined daily average output of coke from sample coking plants and steel mills was 111.23 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.27 thousand tons [5]. - Inventory: As of the week ending October 17, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 997.37 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 38.31 thousand tons, and the coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 788.32 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.19 thousand tons [5]. - Overall: The fundamentals of coking coal lack support, but recent weather in major production areas and anti - involution factors have driven the main coking coal futures contract to maintain a strong and volatile operation [5]. Coke (J) - Production: As of the week ending October 17, the combined daily average output of coke from coking plants and steel mills was 111.23 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.27 thousand tons [6]. - Demand: The daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel mills nationwide was 240.95 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59 thousand tons [6]. - Inventory: This week, the coke inventories of both upstream and downstream in the industrial chain have decreased. The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 57.29 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.55 thousand tons; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 639.44 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.38 thousand tons [6]. - Overall: The supply and demand of coke have both decreased, with a more obvious reduction on the supply side, and the overall inventory in the industrial chain has declined. The fundamentals are relatively neutral, and the upward driving force mainly comes from the supply support of coking coal on the cost side and the expected policy benefits [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 10 月 20 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 中长线上行趋势不变，中美摩擦 助推行情 | | 铜 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 矿端扰动再起，资金关注度快速 上升，中美贸易加剧波动 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：黄金市场在 10 月 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - The subsequent market trend depends on the rhythm change of the game between profit - taking sentiment and policy - positive expectations. In the short term, stock index futures are expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations. The short - term view of IH2512 is shock, the medium - term view is rising, and the intraday view is shock - biased upward, with a wide - range shock as the reference view. For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is shock - biased upward, the medium - term view is rising, and the reference view is wide - range shock [1][4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Section - For IH2512, the short - term is shock, the medium - term is rising, the intraday is shock - biased upward, and the view reference is wide - range shock. The core logic is the conflict between the short - term capital's profit - taking willingness and the medium - and long - term policy positive expectations [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Section - Last Friday, each stock index fluctuated and declined, showing weakness throughout the day. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 195.44 billion yuan, an increase of 570 million yuan compared with the previous day. Recently, overseas uncertain risk factors have increased, the risk - aversion sentiment has risen, and stocks with large previous gains face technical adjustment pressure due to profit - taking. From a macro perspective, the inflation and credit data in September were weak, strengthening the expectation of future policy - driven demand - stabilizing policies, which provides medium - and long - term support for the stock index. A major policy meeting will be held this week, and it is highly certain that the policy will stabilize demand and expectations. Overall, the future market trend depends on the game between profit - taking sentiment and policy - positive expectations, and the stock index is expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations in the short term [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being oscillatory and weak [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Performance**: On the night of last Friday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract slightly rose 0.40% to 14,880 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: This Monday, the 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend [5]. - **Driving Logic**: Although the macro - bearish sentiment has weakened due to Trump's signal of easing, the macro and industrial factors in the rubber market remain weak. The better - than - expected domestic automobile production and sales data last week boosted the bulls' confidence [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Performance**: On the night of last Friday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract showed an oscillatory and weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.55% to 10,880 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: This Monday, the 2512 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend [7]. - **Driving Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, although the macro - bearish sentiment has weakened, the macro and industrial factors in the rubber market remain weak [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of Treasury bond futures is that they are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, while the medium - term view is that they will be volatile. The overall reference view is also volatile. This is due to the short - term increase in risk aversion sentiment and the long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy [1][5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is volatile and slightly stronger, and the overall view is volatile. The core logic is the short - term increase in risk aversion sentiment and the long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of Treasury bond futures (TL, T, TF, TS) is volatile and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is volatile. The reference view is volatile. The core logic is that last Friday, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. Recently, external uncertainties have increased, leading to a rise in market risk aversion sentiment, which strongly supports Treasury bond futures. Macro data in September, such as inflation and financial data, are still weak, so there is an expectation of a loose monetary policy in the future, which also supports Treasury bond futures in the long run. Overall, due to the short - term increase in risk aversion and long - term loose expectations, Treasury bond futures are volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2512 are all weak, showing a trend of weak oscillation. The market is expected to maintain this weak oscillation trend on Monday [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Market Conditions - Last Friday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract stopped falling and stabilized, with the futures price rebounding slightly by 0.34% to 441.1 yuan/barrel [5] Driving Logic - The macro - bearish sentiment has weakened as US President Trump actively released a signal to ease the situation, but the macro and industrial factors in the crude oil market remain weak [5] - Eight OPEC+ oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, increasing the supply pressure in the oil market [5] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has shown signs of easing, and the "war premium" that previously supported oil prices has subsided [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price of rebar 2601 is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand performance. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillating, oscillating, and oscillating weakly respectively, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA10 line [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term trend is oscillating, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is oscillating weakly. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, and the core logic is the game between expectation and reality, with the steel price oscillating at a low level [1] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Sino - US agreement on a new round of economic and trade consultations and the approaching of major meetings have warmed the market sentiment, driving the night - session futures price and weekend spot price to stabilize at a low level. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. Although supply has shrunk, the high inventory weakens the positive effect. Demand has recovered as expected after the festival, but the downstream situation has not improved, and the subsequent improvement strength is questionable. In general, the fundamentals of rebar have not been substantially improved under the situation of weak supply and demand, with large pressure on inventory reduction, and the steel price is under pressure. The relative positive factor is cost support [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic thermal coal price accelerated upward this week. As of October 16, the quotation of 5500K at Qinhuangdao Port was 732 yuan/ton, a significant weekly increase of 29 yuan/ton. Although October is the traditional off - season for thermal coal, the coal price has been strong recently. Thermal coal is supported by multiple positive factors and its price is running strongly, but the impact of factors such as weather is mainly short - term [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price and Inventory - As of October 16, the quotation of 5500K at Qinhuangdao Port was 732 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 29 yuan/ton. According to iFind statistics, as of October 16, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2390.7 million tons, a weekly de - stocking of 83.7 million tons, and 56.6 million tons lower than the same period last year [5] 3.2 Driving Factors - The improvement of the market atmosphere is driven by multiple factors: First, while the north is cooling, the southern coastal cities maintain high temperatures, making the coal demand of power plants show certain resilience, and the daily coal consumption of 8 coastal provinces is significantly higher than the same period last year, supporting the demand for thermal coal. Second, the rain and snow in major production areas such as Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia affected coal production and transportation, and the expectation of anti - involution still exists, boosting market sentiment on the supply side. Third, the autumn inspection of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway and the closure of some northern ports due to strong winds hindered the coal turnover at the ports, and the reduction of supply led to an optimistic market atmosphere [5] 3.3 Market Outlook - Thermal coal is supported by multiple positive factors and its price is running strongly, but the impact of factors such as weather is mainly short - term [5]