Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating trend. With the weakening of the geopolitical trading logic due to the end of the conflict between Iran and Israel, and the approaching of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, the oil market has entered a stage of long - short divergence. After a significant decline in the previous period, the contract showed a strong - oscillating trend on the night of Wednesday, with the price rising by 2.11% to 509.0 yuan/barrel, and is likely to continue this trend on Thursday [1][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog a. Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within one week): The short - term view of crude oil 2508 is oscillating [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The medium - term view of crude oil 2508 is oscillating [1]. - Intraday: The intraday view of crude oil 2508 is oscillating with a strong bias, and the reference view is a strong operation [1][5]. b. Price and Market Analysis - After the end of the conflict between Iran and Israel, the market adjusted expectations, believing that the geopolitical premium of oil prices would further decline. The oil market entered a long - short divergence stage after a previous sharp decline [5]. - With the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, the demand factor for crude oil is exerting its influence. On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract maintained a strong - oscillating trend, with the price rising by 2.11% to 509.0 yuan/barrel [5]. - It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract will maintain a strong - oscillating trend on Thursday [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-07-03 品种晨会纪要 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： ------------------------------------------ ...

| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，甲醇震荡偏强 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-07-03 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：在地缘风险快速降温以后，甲醇期货溢价陆续回吐。随着国内甲醇产能持续释放，周度 产量和周度开工率显著回升，内部供应压力有增无减。叠加海外船货不断到港，外部供应预期逐渐 增大，港口迎来累库周期，华东和华 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 市场情绪偏暖，矿价偏强运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 观点参考 观点参考 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知行合一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view for IH2509 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish. The overall view is oscillatory and bullish, supported by positive policy expectations [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, and the medium - term view is upward. The overall reference view is oscillatory and bullish. Although the main support comes from positive policy expectations, short - term upward momentum is weakening, and the market is expected to oscillate within a range [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | Oscillatory | Upward | Oscillatory and bullish | Oscillatory and bullish | Policy - end positive expectations provide strong support [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, all stock indices continued to oscillate within a narrow range. The total stock market turnover was 1405.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 91.4 billion yuan from the previous day [5]. - The main support for stock indices comes from positive policy expectations. Due to unstable domestic demand and weak credit and inflation data, the market expects more policies to support economic demand and is concerned about the policy guidance of the Politburo meeting in July [5]. - Since late June, the stock indices have risen significantly, so the short - term upward momentum has weakened. The recent decline in trading volume indicates a cooling of the market's chasing sentiment [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Report's Core View - Gold: In the short - term, it's expected to decline; in the medium - term, it will oscillate; and intraday, it's oscillating with a slight upward trend. The recommended strategy is to wait and see. The core logic is that the rising expectations of interest rate cuts and concerns about US tariffs are driving the dollar index down and leading to a rebound in gold prices [1][3]. - Copper: In the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, it's expected to rise. The recommended strategy is to be bullish in the short - term. The core logic is that the improvement in macro - risk appetite after the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, the rising expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, the continuous efforts of domestic macro - policies, and the increasing expectations of supply - side contraction are driving up copper prices [1][5]. 3) Summary by Each Variety Gold (AU) - **View**: Short - term: decline; Medium - term: oscillate; Intraday: oscillate with a slight upward trend; Recommended: wait and see [1][3]. - **Core Logic**: Overseas gold prices have reached around $3350, and domestic ones are approaching 780 yuan. The rising short - term interest rate cut expectations and concerns about US tariffs, along with the weakening dollar index, have led to a rebound in gold prices. The US small non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, and the focus is on today's non - farm data. The market risk appetite remains high, and attention should be paid to the long - short game around the 60 - day moving average [3]. Copper (CU) - **View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday: rise; Recommended: be bullish in the short - term [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The copper price has been rising, with the night - session main contract approaching 81,000 yuan and the open interest at 600,000 lots. The rise is mainly macro - driven, including the improvement in global risk appetite after the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, the rising Fed interest rate cut expectations, the continuous efforts of domestic macro - policies, and the increasing expectations of supply - side contraction. Technically, the copper price has strong upward momentum after breaking through 80,000 yuan, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal futures price may rebound in the short - term as the market sentiment stabilizes. The rise of US soybean futures price, driven by the increase in the expected demand for US soybean crushing due to the US Senate's tax - cut and spending bill and the market's focus on the weather - related yield adjustment from July to August, has led to a rise in the cost of imported soybeans in China [6]. - The palm oil futures price shows a short - term strong and volatile trend. The tightening supply and strong demand of Malaysian palm oil support its price, which in turn boosts the domestic palm oil futures price. The US Senate's fiscal spending bill also boosts the sentiment of the entire oil and fat sector, indirectly benefiting palm oil [8]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: strong and volatile; Reference view: strong and volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: The US Senate's tax - cut and spending bill includes measures to restrict biofuels from North American sources, which drives up the US soybean oil futures price, increasing the expected demand for US soybean crushing and thus the cost of imported soybeans in China. After the US soybean planting area is determined, the market focuses on the yield adjustment due to weather disturbances from July to August. With the stabilization of market sentiment, the soybean meal futures price may rebound [6]. For Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: strong and volatile; Reference view: strong and volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: The tightening supply and strong demand of Malaysian palm oil support its price, which has a positive impact on the domestic palm oil futures price. The US Senate's fiscal spending bill on July 1 boosts the US soybean oil futures price, enhancing the sentiment of the entire oil and fat sector and indirectly benefiting palm oil. The obvious return of short - term funds makes the palm oil futures price trend strongly and volatile [8].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA60 一线支撑 | 政策利好发酵，钢价再度走强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 落后产能退出政策预期提振商品市场情绪，黑色金属集体回升，而螺纹钢基本面延续季节性弱 势，建筑钢厂提产，周产量持续增加，供应压力有所回升。与此同时，螺纹需求表现不佳，高频需 求指标低位偏弱运行，淡季需求特征明显，弱势需求仍易抑制钢价。目前来看，得益于供应政策预 期提振，钢 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 7 月 3 日） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 内卷性竞争整治，焦煤震荡走强 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 偏多氛围主导，焦炭低位反弹 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 品种：焦炭（J） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 核 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 7 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 制造业 PMI 数据边际向好 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均小幅反弹。由于 5 月信贷数据与通胀数据表现偏弱反映出内需的内生性 增长动能有所不足，政策面预计未来需要继续保持偏宽松的货币环境来托底经济需求端 ...