Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak, with limited inventory reduction. The steel price is under pressure and is expected to continue the trend of bottom - seeking in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to demand performance [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is weak and volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday view is weak and volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line. The core logic is the weak supply - demand pattern and the steel price seeking the bottom in a volatile way [1] 2. Market Driving Logic - The rebar supply - demand pattern is weak. Supply has continuously shrunk to a relatively low level, but inventory is relatively high and the positive effect of production reduction during the peak season is not strong. After the holiday, rebar demand has rebounded but is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the improvement of downstream demand is doubtful. The steel price is under pressure due to the lack of substantial improvement in the fundamentals and the inventory pressure, and the cost support is the relative positive factor [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 10 月 21 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：国内豆粕市场呈现供需宽松格局，价格承压运行。供应方面，国内大豆到港量充足，港口 库存维持高位，假期过后油厂开机率逐步恢复，豆粕供应压力持续。需求方面，下游养殖亏损程度有 所恶化，导致饲料企业采购谨慎，多以刚需补货为主，豆粕消费表现疲软。受此影响，豆粕现货价格 低位震荡，现货基差承压运行。短期内，豆粕基本面乏善可陈，豆粕期价震荡运行。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, the intraday view is to oscillate with a slight upward bias, and the overall view is to oscillate. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy still exists [1]. - For the main varieties of financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is to oscillate with a slight upward bias, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the overall reference view is to oscillate. Short - term interest rate cut expectations have cooled, but long - term policy easing expectations still support bond futures. Also, the weakening of external risks has reduced the safe - haven demand for bonds, resulting in insufficient upward momentum. In general, bond futures will mainly oscillate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate with a slight upward bias. The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations in the short and long terms [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) have an intraday view of oscillating with a slight upward bias and a medium - term view of oscillating. The reference view is to oscillate. The GDP growth in the first three quarters reached 5.2%, reducing the short - term need for interest rate cuts. The unchanged LPR in October also cooled short - term interest rate cut expectations. However, long - term domestic demand problems still require a loose monetary environment, and the easing expectation supports bond futures. The weakening of external risks has reduced the safe - haven demand for bonds, leading to insufficient upward momentum. So, short - term bond futures will mainly oscillate [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract is in a weak state. The market has returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure, and under a weak macro - expectation, the contract remains weak. The contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Monday, with the price closing 0.07% lower at 14810 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 month - spread premium narrowing to 5 yuan/ton [6]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract is also in a weak state. The domestic methanol market is in a stage of oversupply and weak demand. The contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Monday, with the price closing 1.00% lower at 2266 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 month - spread discount widening to 26 yuan/ton [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, rebounding but being blocked, and slightly closing lower on Monday, with the price closing 0.86% lower at 435.8 yuan/barrel. Systemic risks have occurred due to the continuous shutdown of the US federal government and Trump's resumption of the trade tariff war. At the same time, OPEC+ oil - producing countries continue to increase production, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil is being reversed due to the possible end of the Palestine - Israel conflict in the Middle East [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 12, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 45.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons (0.11%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.02% to 7.08 million tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.49% to 38.52 million tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 3.74 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.40 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 4.11 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 4.91 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a week - on - week increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a week - on - week increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. Most enterprises' capacity utilization rates have returned to pre - holiday levels, but the overall shipment performance varies [9]. - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The new order index of logistics enterprises was 53.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, remaining in a high - prosperity range above 52% for four consecutive months. In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 17.1% and 14.9% [10]. - In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, achieving six consecutive months of growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market was about 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.38%, a week - on - week increase of 4.00%, a month - on - month increase of 4.99%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.95%. The average weekly methanol production was 1.9837 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64,400 tons, and a significant increase of 118,600 tons compared to the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.95%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.03%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%; the acetic acid operating rate was 71.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 10.04%; the MTBE operating rate was 54.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.00%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 88.36%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.39 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.48% [11]. - As of October 17, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 252 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 53 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 106 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.2589 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70,900 tons, and a significant increase of 324,600 tons compared to the same period last year. As of the week of October 16, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 359,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,400 tons, and a significant decrease of 109,700 tons compared to the same period last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 418, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a decrease of 83 compared to the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.636 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.7 million barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 1.36 million barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.524 million barrels and a slight year - on - year increase of 3.235 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.001 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 703,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 407.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 760,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 85.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.7 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year decrease of 2.0 percentage points [13]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts (a 15.65% decrease) compared to the August average. As of October 17, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 110,311 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 31,345 contracts and a significant decrease of 106,044 contracts (a 49.01% decrease) compared to the September average [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,250 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 14,810 yuan/ton | + 115 yuan/ton | - 560 yuan/ton | - 115 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,290 yuan/ton | + 0 yuan/ton | 2,266 yuan/ton | - 6 yuan/ton | + 24 yuan/ton | + 6 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 421.2 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | 435.8 yuan/barrel | + 0.8 yuan/barrel | - 14.6 yuan/barrel | + 0.7 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: Related charts include rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][18][19]. - Methanol: Related charts include methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 month - spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35]. - Crude Oil: Related charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [44][46][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: As of the week ending October 17, the combined daily average coke production of coking plants and steel mills was 1.1123 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 12,700 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.4095 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5,900 tons. The coke inventories of upstream and downstream industries decreased. The inventory of all independent coking plants was 572,900 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 65,500 tons, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.3944 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 113,800 tons. Overall, both supply and demand of coke decreased, with a more significant reduction on the supply side, and the overall industrial chain inventory decreased. The fundamentals are relatively neutral, and the upward driving force mainly comes from the supply support of coking coal at the cost end and the expected policy benefits [6][34]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending October 17, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 779,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 27,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 6,000 tons. At the import end, the Ganqimaodu Port resumed operation on October 8, with the daily traffic volume returning to around 1,100 - 1,300 vehicles. At the demand end, the combined daily average coke production of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1.1123 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 12,700 tons. In terms of inventory, downstream coking plants and steel mills actively purchased this week, and the coking coal inventory was transferred downstream. As of the week ending October 17, the coking coal inventory of all independent coking plants was 9.9737 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 383,100 tons, and the coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.8832 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 71,900 tons. Overall, the fundamentals of coking coal lack support, but recent weather and anti - involution impacts in the main production areas have caused disturbances, driving the main coking coal futures contract to maintain a relatively strong volatile operation [7][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China began in Beijing on the morning of the 20th. General Secretary Xi Jinping delivered a work report on behalf of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee and explained the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (Discussion Draft)" to the plenary session [9]. - On October 20, the price of coking coal in the Jinzhong market remained stable. The ex - factory price of medium - sulfur main coking clean coal with specifications A10.5, S1.3, V25, G80, CSR65, and petrographic 0.15 was 1,300 yuan/ton including tax in cash [10]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - First - Grade FOB) | 1,520 | 0.00% | 3.40% | - 10.06% | - 21.65% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Grade Ex - Warehouse) | 1,460 | 1.39% | 0.00% | - 9.88% | - 20.65% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1,260 | - 1.56% | - 1.56% | 6.78% | - 20.25% | | Coking Coal (Australian - Produced in Jingtang Port) | 1,540 | 1.32% | - 4.35% | 3.36% | - 16.76% | | Coking Coal (Shanxi - Produced in Jingtang Port) | 1,660 | 0.00% | - 2.92% | 8.50% | - 14.87% | [11] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,710.0 | 1.63 | 1,738.0 | 1,685.0 | 26,668 | 6,177 | 40,175 | - 560 | | Coking Coal | - | 1,216.0 | 2.66 | 1,238.5 | 1,187.0 | 1,072,864 | 202,940 | 618,806 | 12,271 | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke total inventory, and total coke inventory over the years [15][16][17][18]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts show the mine - mouth coking coal inventory, port coking coal inventory, 247 sample steel mill coking coal inventory, and all independent coking plant coking coal inventory over the years [21][24][26][31]. - **Other Charts**: Charts show domestic steel mill production (including blast furnace operating rate and steel mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire rod and screw steel procurement volume, coal washing plant production (including clean coal inventory and operating rate), and coking plant operating conditions (including coke production profit and coke oven capacity utilization rate) [28][29][32][33]. 3.5后市研判 - The analysis of coke and coking coal is the same as the core viewpoints, including production, demand, inventory, and overall situation analysis [34][35].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 期货研究报告 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 日内铜价走强 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜上午增仓上行，一度逼近 8.6 万关口，午后高位小幅回 落。周五夜盘市场风险偏好回升，叠加今日国内宏观数据较好，利 好铜价。产业上，下游观望氛围较浓，周一电解铜社库小幅累库， 给予期价压力。技术上，关注前期高位压力。 沪铝 今日沪铝在 2.09 万上方窄幅震荡，持仓量持续下降，振幅明显收 窄。今日宏观回暖，但铝价表现较弱，这很可能是由于产业压力较 大。技术上，铝价在 2.1 万关口压力 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated at a low level, with a daily decline of 0.03%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not been substantially improved, the pressure of inventory reduction is relatively large, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost support. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate and seek a bottom. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.12%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. At present, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coil is relatively large, and the demand toughness is weakening. The supply-demand pattern continues to deteriorate. The relatively positive factor is cost support. Under the game between weak reality and cost support, the price of hot-rolled coil will continue to seek a bottom weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated. It recorded a daily decline of 0.58%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. At present, the supply of iron ore remains at a high level, while industrial concerns persist, and demand is expected to decrease. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are beginning to weaken. High-valued iron ore prices are likely to be under pressure and run weakly. However, due to the high level of rigid demand, there is resistance to the downward movement. It is expected that the trend will show a high-level oscillatory decline. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year-on-year. The preliminary accounting shows that the GDP in the first three quarters was 1,015,036 billion yuan. Calculated at constant prices, it increased by 5.2% year-on-year. By industry, the added value of the primary industry was 580.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%; the added value of the secondary industry was 3,640.2 billion yuan, an increase of 4.9%; the added value of the tertiary industry was 5,929.55 billion yuan, an increase of 5.4%. By quarter, the GDP in the first quarter increased by 5.4% year-on-year, 5.2% in the second quarter, and 4.8% in the third quarter. From a quarter-on-quarter perspective, the GDP in the third quarter increased by 1.1% [6]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the industrial added value of large-scale industries in China from January to September increased by 6.2% year-on-year. In September, the actual year-on-year growth of the industrial added value of large-scale industries was 6.5% (the growth rate of added value is the actual growth rate after deducting price factors). From a month-on-month perspective, in September, the industrial added value of large-scale industries increased by 0.64% compared with the previous month. From January to September, the industrial added value of large-scale industries increased by 6.2% year-on-year. By major categories, in September, the added value of the mining industry increased by 6.4% year-on-year, the manufacturing industry increased by 7.3%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 0.6%. By economic type, in September, the added value of state-owned holding enterprises increased by 6.5% year-on-year; joint-stock enterprises increased by 6.8%, foreign-invested enterprises and enterprises invested by Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan increased by 5.8%; private enterprises increased by 4.6% [7]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's crude steel output in the first three quarters was 746.25 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%. In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%; pig iron output was 66.05 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%; steel output was 124.21 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. From January to September, China's crude steel output was 746.25 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%; pig iron output was 645.86 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%; steel output was 1,103.85 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of various steel products and iron ore-related products are provided, including rebar, hot-rolled coil, Tangshan billet, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, sea freight, SGX swaps, and Platts Index. The price changes of these products are also given [9]. Futures Market - The futures prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore are presented, including the closing price, daily change rate, highest price, lowest price, trading volume, change in trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [13]. Relevant Charts - Charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including rebar inventory, hot-rolled coil inventory, and iron ore inventory at ports and steel mills, are provided. Charts related to steel mill production, such as blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability, are also included [15][20][31]. 后市研判 - For rebar, the supply-demand pattern has changed. The production of construction steel mills is weakly stable. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 22,400 tons month-on-month, and the supply continued to contract, but the decline rate slowed down. The space for production reduction during the peak season is limited, and the inventory is relatively high, so the positive effect is not strong. At the same time, the demand for rebar rebounded as expected after the festival. The weekly apparent demand increased significantly month-on-month, but the high-frequency daily trading volume was sluggish. Both are still at the lowest levels in recent years, and the downstream industries have not improved. The peak season is expected to be lackluster, and the weak demand pattern remains unchanged. In short, in the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not been substantially improved, the pressure of inventory reduction is relatively large, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost support. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate and seek a bottom. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [38]. - For hot-rolled coil, the weakening trend of the supply-demand pattern remains unchanged, and the inventory continues to increase. The production of plate steel mills is weakly stable. The weekly output decreased by 14,500 tons month-on-month, and the decline is limited. It is still at a high level this year, and the inventory is high, so the supply pressure is relatively large, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. At the same time, the demand for hot-rolled coil has improved. The weekly apparent demand increased by 245,800 tons month-on-month, but the high-frequency trading volume is still weak. The sustainability of the improvement is questionable, and the contradictions in the downstream cold-rolled industry have not been alleviated. The improvement in external demand is limited, and the demand toughness of hot-rolled coil is weakening. In short, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coil is relatively large, and the demand toughness is weakening. The supply-demand pattern continues to deteriorate. The relatively positive factor is cost support. Under the game between weak reality and cost support, the price of hot-rolled coil will continue to seek a bottom weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [38]. - For iron ore, the supply-demand pattern has weakened. The production of steel mills is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore continues to decline from a high level. Last week, the average daily pig iron output and the daily consumption of imported ore of the sample steel mills both decreased month-on-month. Although both are still at relatively high levels this year, the contradictions in the steel market have not been alleviated, and industrial concerns persist, so the positive effect of demand is weakening. At the same time, the arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has declined from a high level, but the overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded. Both are at high levels this year, indicating active supply of foreign ore. Coupled with the recovery of domestic ore supply, the supply pressure of iron ore has increased. In short, the supply of iron ore remains at a high level, while industrial concerns persist, and demand is expected to decrease. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are beginning to weaken. High-valued iron ore prices are likely to be under pressure and run weakly. However, due to the high level of rigid demand, there is resistance to the downward movement. It is expected that the trend will show a high-level oscillatory decline. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Collar options, a strategy combining buying put options and selling call options, can be applied in three scenarios: raw material procurement, inventory management, and profit locking, which can precisely control risk exposure and help sugar enterprises operate stably. In the current situation where domestic and foreign sugar prices are continuously fluctuating, sugar enterprises can use collar options to manage risk exposure [1][5][12] Summary by Relevant Catalog Characteristics and Advantages of Collar Options - Collar options are a strategy that combines buying put options to protect against downside risks and selling call options to obtain premiums. Its core is to limit the asset price fluctuation range within a preset interval, which can be regarded as a protective put option plus a covered call option, using the income from the covered strategy to offset the cost of the protective strategy [1] - For sugar enterprises, collar options are particularly suitable. Sugar prices are affected by seasonality, policies, and international sugar price fluctuations. Option risk management strategies are more flexible than futures strategies. The cost of collar options is lower than that of buying put options for hedging, and they can lock in the minimum and maximum expected selling prices [3] Comparison of Different Hedging Methods | Hedging Method | Hedging Effect | Hedging Cost | Flexibility | Applicable Situation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Futures Hedging | Lock in downside risk and give up upside gain | High margin requirement | Fixed price | Sufficient funds, suitable for long - term hedging | | Buying Put Option Hedging | Lock in downside risk and retain upside gain | Low capital occupation (pay premium) | Customizable strike price | Limited funds, prevent short - term pullback in a bull market | | Collar Option Hedging | Limit price range | Pay premium | Customizable strike price | Sideways market, suitable for long - term hedging | [4] Application Scenarios of Collar Options Raw Material Procurement - A sugar - making enterprise can lock in the current sugarcane purchase cost by locking in the future sugar selling price. For example, it can buy a put option with an exercise price of 5200 yuan/ton and sell a call option with an exercise price of 5500 yuan/ton. If the sugar price drops to 4800 yuan/ton, the enterprise can exercise the option to reduce losses; if the sugar price rises to 5600 yuan/ton, it can still lock in the actual selling price of 5500 yuan/ton [6] Inventory Management - When a sugar - making enterprise has inventory backlog, it can buy a put option with an exercise price of 5200 yuan/ton and sell a call option with an exercise price of 5500 yuan/ton. When the sugar price falls below 5200 yuan/ton, the put option compensates for inventory losses; when the sugar price is between 5200 - 5500 yuan/ton, the inventory value is stable. The strategy can generate net premium income at the beginning and reduce inventory management costs [7] Profit Locking - A sugar - making enterprise can select the strike price of the collar option according to the production plan to compress the sugar price fluctuation range to the target profit interval (such as 5200 - 5500 yuan/ton) to ensure a stable processing profit. It can also adjust the strike price dynamically according to market expectations [9]

Core View - The essence of trading is to follow the trend, not blindly chase rising or sell falling, but to adapt to the market and maintain a rhythm [3] - In the market, one should not be trapped by short - term ups and downs but find one's own rhythm and keep a calm mind [4] - Instead of predicting every market fluctuation, the real wisdom is to maintain inner peace during fluctuations [3] - In futures trading, one should not focus on the win - loss of a single trade but on improving the overall winning probability [3] Specific Cases - Last year, when the gold price soared, the author remained calm, thought about the sustainability of the market, and left the market calmly when the price peaked above $3600, avoiding greed and panic [3]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The iron ore market's supply-demand pattern has changed, with weakening steel mill production, declining terminal ore consumption, and unresolved industrial contradictions in the steel market, leading to expected weakening demand. Meanwhile, the supply pressure is increasing due to high arrivals at domestic ports and high shipments from miners. The high-valued ore price is likely to be under pressure and decline in a high-level volatile manner, but there is resistance to the decline due to high rigid demand. The focus should be on the production situation of steel mills [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short-term view is weakly volatile, the medium-term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the weakening supply-demand pattern and the oscillating decline of ore prices [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply-demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mill production is weakening, terminal ore consumption is continuously declining, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market remain unresolved, so demand is expected to weaken. At the same time, the arrivals of ore at domestic ports are high, and miners' shipments are also at a high level. Overseas ore supply is active at high prices, and domestic ore supply has recovered, increasing the supply pressure. Currently, ore supply remains high, demand is expected to decrease, and the fundamentals of the ore market are weakening. The high-valued ore price is prone to be under pressure and run weakly, but there is resistance to the decline due to high rigid demand. It is expected to show a high-level volatile decline trend, and the focus should be on the production situation of steel mills [2]