Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2601 is weak and oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also weak and oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weak, and steel prices are under pressure [1]. - The supply and demand of rebar have both weakened. Supply has continuously shrunk to a relatively low level, but inventory is high, and the motivation for production reduction during the peak season is weak, so the positive effect is limited. Demand is weak due to holiday factors, and the downstream has not improved. The peak - season performance needs to be tracked. In the situation of weak supply and demand, industrial contradictions in the rebar industry have accumulated, and the pressure of inventory reduction is large. Steel prices are under pressure, and the cost support is a positive factor. With the game between long and short factors, steel prices are expected to oscillate to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand situation [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Varieties Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, in the short - term (within one week), it is expected to be weak and oscillating; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it is expected to be oscillating; and intraday, it is also expected to be weak and oscillating. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, and the core logic is the weak supply - demand pattern putting pressure on steel prices [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar have both weakened. Supply has shrunk to a low level, but high inventory and weak production - reduction motivation in the peak season limit the positive effect. Demand is weak due to holidays, the downstream has not improved, and the peak - season performance needs to be tracked. In the situation of weak supply and demand, industrial contradictions have accumulated, and the pressure of inventory reduction is large. Steel prices are under pressure, and cost support is a positive factor. With the game between long and short factors, steel prices are expected to oscillate to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 will maintain a weak and volatile trend. Although the macro - bearish sentiment has weakened due to Trump's signal, both macro and industrial factors in the crude oil market remain weak. The OPEC+ production increase and the easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation contribute to this outlook [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Market Outlook - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2512 are all weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1][5]. - On Tuesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract slightly stabilized and closed up 0.02% to 453.8 yuan/barrel, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Tuesday [5]. Market Driving Factors - The macro - bearish sentiment has weakened as Trump released a signal to ease the situation, but the macro and industrial factors in the crude oil market remain weak [5]. - Eight OPEC+ oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, increasing the supply pressure in the oil market [5]. - The Middle East geopolitical situation has shown signs of easing, and the "war premium" that previously supported oil prices has faded [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View - Gold and copper are both rated as long - term strong, with short - term and medium - term upward trends. Gold shows an intraday trend of being oscillating and strengthening, while copper is oscillating and stabilizing [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: International gold prices have been rising, with New York gold breaking through $4100 per ounce and domestic Shanghai gold rising above 930 yuan per gram [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The upward trend is driven by global monetary policy shifts, increased geopolitical risk aversion, and structural demand changes. Market expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks such as Sino - US trade friction and the Ukraine crisis, and concerns about the US government's debt problem have led to a continuous influx of safe - haven funds. Global central banks' large - scale gold purchases and strong investment demand from institutions and individuals, as shown by the record inflow of funds into global gold ETFs in September 2025, are also important factors [3]. - **Short - term Outlook**: Sino - US trade friction may accelerate the upward movement of gold prices, with gold likely to be stronger than silver and the gold - silver ratio rising. The 5 - day moving average can be used as a short - term strength or weakness dividing line [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: On Monday, domestic copper prices oscillated and stabilized, and the night - session prices continued to rebound, recovering from the decline caused by the short - term intensification of Sino - US trade relations [5]. - **Driving Factors**: After the market digests trade disturbances, copper prices are in a context of macro - economic easing and shrinking demand. Attention should be paid to whether the demand side can accept high copper prices [5]. - **Short - term Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to continue to be strong, and attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the post - holiday high [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly with a volatile and weak trend in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On the night session of this Monday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract continued the volatile and weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.80% to 14,870 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract may maintain a volatile and weak trend on Tuesday [5] - **Core Logic**: Although the macro - bearish sentiment has weakened as US President Trump actively released a signal to ease the situation, the macro and industrial factors in the rubber market still remain weak [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On the night session of this Monday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract declined under pressure, with the futures price slightly down 0.92% to 10,800 yuan/ton [7] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract may maintain a volatile and weak trend on Tuesday [7] - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, although the macro - bearish sentiment has weakened, the macro and industrial factors in the rubber market still remain weak [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The price of thermal coal may maintain a range - bound trading after the holiday, as the supply improves, demand declines, and the fundamentals weaken marginally [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Supply - Anti - involution capacity verification's impact was mostly released in September. In October, coal mine production in major producing areas gradually resumed, and imported coal had good cost - effectiveness, leading to a stable and increasing overall supply of thermal coal [4]. Demand - During the National Day, temperatures in some coastal areas remained above 30°C, supporting residential electricity consumption. However, with the improvement of hydropower and wind power output, thermal power demand showed seasonal weakness [4]. Inventory - As of October 9, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 24.744 million tons, a significant weekly increase of 1.959 million tons and 1.121 million tons higher than the same period last year. After the peak summer season and with the improvement of new energy output, the domestic thermal coal supply - demand pattern weakened, and ports entered the inventory accumulation cycle [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of soybean meal and palm oil futures are expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term and oscillating in the medium - term [5][7]. - For soybean meal, due to the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, the domestic soybean futures price is stronger than the foreign market. The expected tightening of long - term soybean supply supports the price of the 2601 contract [5]. - For palm oil, after the release of market risks, the price may stop falling and rebound despite the short - term fluctuations caused by factors such as the decline in international oil prices and the weakening of the industrial chain [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, the domestic soybean futures price is stronger than the foreign market. There is a procurement gap for the 12 - 1 January shipment, and the expected tightening of long - term soybean supply supports the 2601 contract [5]. - **Key Factors**: Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [7][6]. - **Core Logic**: With the decline in international oil prices and the weakening of the industrial chain, the decline of palm oil futures prices has widened. After the release of market risks, the price may stop falling and rebound [7]. - **Key Factors**: Biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soybean Oil (Not in detailed description but in overview) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6]. - **Key Factors**: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The iron ore market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. Although the demand for iron ore is currently good and transportation costs have increased, supporting high - level prices, the supply is high and the demand resilience is weakening, so the upward driving force of high - valued iron ore prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be oscillating, and the intraday trend is expected to be weakly oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the demand performs well and the ore price remains at a high level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand sides of iron ore have changed. Steel mill production is stabilizing, and the rigid demand for ore is good, which supports the ore price. However, contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and the positive effect will weaken. - Domestic port ore arrivals have reached a new high for the year, while miners' shipments have slightly declined from the high level. Overseas ore supply is active at high prices, and domestic ore supply is also recovering after the holiday, increasing supply pressure. - Currently, the ore demand is good, and the increase in transportation costs has an impact. Positive factors support the high - level operation of ore prices. But the supply is high and the demand resilience is weakening, and the fundamentals are expected to deteriorate, limiting the upward driving force of high - valued ore prices [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2512 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The core logic is that the long - term and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Overall, in the short term, the upward momentum and downward space of Treasury bond futures are both limited, and they will mainly conduct bottom oscillation consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the long - term and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures opened higher and closed slightly up. On the news front, Trump's sudden tariff threat last Friday led to a rapid decline in the risk preference of the capital market and an increase in risk - aversion sentiment, which is beneficial to Treasury bond futures. From a macro - fundamental perspective, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and there is a need for a relatively loose monetary environment in the future. Policy easing expectations still exist, which strongly supports Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, domestic economic data shows strong resilience, and the necessity of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is insufficient. The implied interest rate cut expectation between the current market interest rate and the policy rate is weak, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is also insufficient [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report is a daily report on commodity arbitrage data from Baocheng Futures on October 14, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of various commodities in different sectors [1][5][18][25][38][49] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - The basis data of power coal from September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, is presented, with the basis on October 13 being - 87.4 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend compared to previous days. The spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month are all 0.0 [1][2] 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on October 13 is 4.17 yuan/ton [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, are given. For instance, the basis of rubber on October 13 is - 690 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented, such as the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rubber being - 15 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, are shown. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on October 13 is 2285 yuan/ton [10] 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on October 13 is 127.0 yuan/ton [18] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented, like the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rebar being 54.0 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, are shown. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on October 13 is 3.86 [19] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of copper on October 13 is - 280 yuan/ton [29] 3.4.2 London Market - The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on October 13, 2025, are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper is 226.78 [34] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, are given. For example, the basis of soybeans No.2 on October 13 is 265.84 yuan/ton [39] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products are presented, such as the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 being 35 yuan/ton [39] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, are shown. For example, the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio on October 13 is 2.82 [39] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on October 13 is 31.38 [50] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) are presented. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 is - 10.6 [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's foreign trade shows resilience with steady growth in imports and exports in the first three quarters of 2025, and the growth rate accelerates quarter - by - quarter [19] - Gold prices reach new highs, and institutions predict further price increases in the future [5][6] - The U.S. economic growth forecast is raised, but employment growth is expected to remain weak [3] - The price of refined oil is reduced, and the probability of the next adjustment being downward is high [11] - The price of live - hog futures hits a record low, and the pork market is in a "peak - season but low - price" situation [15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q2 2025 is 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1] - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, and the non - manufacturing PMI business activity index is 50.0% [1] - In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 is 6.0%, showing an upward trend [1] - In September 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of exports and imports are 8.3% and 7.4% respectively, showing a significant increase [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports are 33.61 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 7.1% and imports decreasing by 0.2% [2] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited establishes a new subsidiary in Dubai to expand commodity business and promote connectivity between China and the Middle East [3] - Economists raise the growth forecast of the U.S. economy for this year and next year, but expect employment growth to be weak [3] - On October 13, the Baltic Dry Index rises by 10.74% to 2144 points [4] 3.2.2 Metals - On October 14, the price of New York gold futures hits a record high of $4150 per ounce, and spot gold also reaches a new high [5] - The silver market experiences a rare short - squeeze, and the price of spot silver breaks through $52 per ounce [6] - The ILZSG predicts that the global lead and zinc supply and demand situation will change in 2025 and 2026 [6] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Zangge Mining's subsidiary resumes lithium resource development and utilization activities [9] - In September 2025, China's imports of soybeans, iron ore, and coal reach record or near - record highs [9] - Rio Tinto's Q3 2025 production of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum is announced [10] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Since October 13, 2025, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are reduced, and the probability of the next adjustment being downward is high [11] - China Petrochemical Beijing Petroleum Company promotes the transformation of traditional gas stations into comprehensive energy stations [11] - Saudi Aramco's CEO expects strong global oil demand in the next two years [12] - OPEC's September 2025 crude oil production data is released [12][13] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The live - hog futures price hits a record low, and the spot price of pork also shows a continuous downward trend [15] - The Chinese government arranges "Sanqiu" production work to ensure autumn grain harvest [16] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On October 13, the central bank conducts 1378 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1378 billion yuan [17] 3.3.2 Important News - China starts to collect special port fees on U.S. ships [18] - Trump hints at canceling new tariffs on China [18] - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting will be held from October 27 to 30 [20] - The issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 is completed [20] - The 9 - month non - standard trust market shows a significant divergence in volume and price [20] - Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission launches a "real estate fund hotline" [21] - China's real estate - related special bonds increase significantly in the first three quarters of 2025 [21] - Vanke's board chairman changes [21] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rebound, and the prices of Vanke and Shenzhen Metro bonds generally fall [24] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closes down, and the prices of some convertible bonds fluctuate significantly [25] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closes down, and the US dollar index rises [29] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Fixed - Income believes that the issuance and net financing of local bonds will decline [30] - Guoxin Fixed - Income suggests not being overly aggressive in the convertible bond market due to increased uncertainties [31] - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the short - term bond market has a high probability of winning but not to over - chase the rise [31] 3.4 Stock Market Important News - The A - share market opens lower and rebounds, with some sectors rising and some falling [35] - The Hong Kong stock market closes down, and the net inflow of southbound funds is significant [35][36] - Foreign capital continues to be optimistic about Chinese core assets and increases their allocation [36] - Insurance funds are optimistic about the A - share market in Q4 and focus on two investment lines [36] - The issuance of new funds is hot, and equity funds are the main force [36]