投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业弱稳运行，钢矿延续震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.33%日跌幅，量增仓稳。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应小幅回升，而需求延续季节性弱势，供需格局并未好转，淡 季钢价承压运行，相对利好则是库存偏低，现实矛盾不大，预计走势维 持震荡寻底态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.26%日跌幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，热卷供需格局迎来好转，但供应维持高位，且需求韧性存疑，基本 面改善持续性存疑，上行驱动不强，预计走势维持震荡运行态势，重点 关注需求情况。 铁矿石：主力期价低位震荡，录得 0.43%日跌幅，量增仓缩。现阶 段，矿石需求韧性表现尚可，给予矿价支撑，但供应维持高位，且需求 增量空间有限，矿石基本面并未实质性改善，后续矿价延续低位震荡运 行，关注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：t ...

有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 宏观回暖，有色普涨 核心观点 沪铜 今日午后铜价增仓上行明显，7-8 月差持续走弱。宏观层面，伊 朗和以色列停战，市场风险偏好回暖，有色普涨。产业层面，本周 一产业补库意愿上升。此外，近期海外伦铜升水明显走强，这说明 了海外电解铜现货紧张。国内进口亏损进一步扩大。短期地缘政治 出现明显缓和，市场风险偏好明显回暖，预计铜价持续上行，关注 7.9 万关口多空博弈。 沪铝 今日铝价震荡上行，持仓量小幅上升。宏观层面，伊朗和以色列 停战，市场风险 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The price of domestic crude oil futures contract 2508 is expected to run weakly and maintain a volatile and weak trend on Wednesday, June 26, 2025, due to the weakening of geopolitical factors [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - Cycle Views - **Short - term**: The short - term view (within one week) for crude oil 2508 is a volatile trend [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view (two weeks to one month) for crude oil 2508 is a volatile trend [1]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view for crude oil 2508 is volatile and weak [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The market's trading of geopolitical logic has weakened as US President Trump's comments indicated the end of the conflict between Iran and Israel, and then the two countries announced a formal cease - fire. Investors believe that the impact of Middle Eastern geopolitical factors on oil prices will not intensify further, and the geopolitical premium will decline. As a result, domestic and international crude oil futures prices have significantly corrected. On Tuesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract fell 9.27% to 502.3 yuan/barrel [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being weakly oscillatory [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Trends**: The 2509 contract of Shanghai rubber futures showed a weakly oscillatory trend in the night session on Tuesday, with the futures price slightly down 0.07% to 13765 yuan/ton, and is expected to maintain this trend on Wednesday [5] - **Core Logic**: As geopolitical factors weaken, the common positive effects on energy and chemical commodity futures decline, and the negative factors of the weak supply - demand structure in the rubber market re - dominate. Currently, the supply side is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and high monthly output pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed down, and terminal demand has entered the off - season [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Trends**: The 2508 contract of synthetic rubber futures showed a weakly oscillatory trend in the night session on Tuesday, with the futures price down 1.12% to 11065 yuan/ton, and is expected to maintain this trend on Wednesday [7] - **Core Logic**: Due to comments from former US President Trump indicating the end of the conflict between Iran and Israel, and subsequent news of an official cease - fire, the trading of geopolitical logic in the market weakened. The sharp correction of domestic and international crude oil futures prices dragged down the synthetic rubber futures [7]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 25 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/24 | -185.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/23 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/20 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/19 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/18 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economy shows resilience, with GDP maintaining stable growth and consumer market gradually recovering [1]. - The central bank implements a moderately loose monetary policy, and experts expect further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in the second half of the year [2][17]. - The stock market rebounds strongly, and high - profile institutions maintain an overweight recommendation for A - shares and Hong Kong stocks [34][35]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 5.4% year - on - year, showing stability [1]. - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, with different trends [1]. - Social financing scale, M0, M1, M2, and other indicators showed certain changes in May 2025 [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Six departments jointly issued a guidance on financial support for consumption, setting up a 500 - billion - yuan re - loan [2]. - The central bank's monetary policy is expected to further loosen, with possible interest rate cuts of up to 30 basis points and reserve requirement ratio cuts of up to 0.5 percentage points [2][17]. - Israel and Iran agreed to a full - scale cease - fire [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - Most London base metals declined, and international precious metals futures generally fell [5]. - As of mid - June, the prices of aluminum ingots and electrolytic copper increased, while zinc ingot prices decreased [5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of mid - June, the prices of coking coal, coke, and rebar all declined [6]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - CNOOC signed an oil and gas exploration and production contract [7]. - International oil prices dropped significantly due to the easing of the Middle East situation [7][8]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - As of mid - June, the prices of soybeans, cotton, and corn all increased [11]. - Brazil's soybean meal exports in June are expected to reach 1.92 million tons [12]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On June 24, the central bank conducted 406.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 209.2 billion yuan [14]. - On June 25, the central bank will conduct 300 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 118 billion yuan [14]. 3.3.2 Key News - Six departments jointly issued a guidance on financial support for consumption, aiming to boost and expand consumption [15]. - The 2025 Summer Davos Forum opened, and experts expect China's economic growth to remain above 5% in the second half of the year [16]. - Credit bond ETFs' total scale exceeded 200 billion yuan, becoming a rapidly growing segment in the ETF market [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market declined, with yields on major interest - rate bonds rising slightly [23]. - Exchange - traded bonds showed mixed performance, with some bonds rising and some falling [23]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the RMB central parity rate hit a high since November 2024 [28][29]. - The US dollar index fell, and non - US currencies generally rose [29]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Some amortized bond funds switched their investment styles from "full - rate" to "full - credit" [30]. - It is recommended to increase the allocation of 3 - 5 - year medium - and high - coupon credit bonds [30]. 3.4 Stock Market - The A - share market rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining 3400 points [34]. - The Hong Kong stock market also rose, and the southbound capital had net purchases [35]. - High - profile institutions maintain an overweight recommendation for A - shares and Hong Kong stocks [35].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory, and the intraday trend being weakly oscillatory. The weakening of geopolitical factors is the main reason for the weakening trend of methanol [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.品种晨会纪要 - For methanol 2509, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory. The reference view is weakly running, and the core logic is that geopolitical factors are weakening, leading to a weakly oscillatory methanol market [1] 2.主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 - The intraday view of methanol is weakly oscillatory, and the medium - term view is oscillatory, with a reference view of weakly running. Due to Trump's comment indicating the end of the conflict between Iran and Israel and the subsequent official cease - fire announcement, the geopolitical trading logic has weakened. Crude oil futures prices at home and abroad have significantly corrected, and international methanol prices have also declined. On Tuesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract closed slightly lower by 0.79% to 2395 yuan/ton. It is expected that on Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract will maintain a weakly oscillatory trend [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that the stock index will mainly show a range - bound oscillation in the short - term, with a mid - term upward trend. Yesterday, all stock indices rose unilaterally, and the market turnover increased. The market's risk preference has recovered due to the easing of geopolitical risks, but short - term policy signals are lacking, and external risks may cause some disturbances [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the mid - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias. The reference view is range - bound oscillation, and the core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, all stock indices rose unilaterally, and the total market turnover of the stock market was 1447.9 billion yuan, an increase of 301.1 billion yuan compared with the previous day [4]. - **Positive Factors**: Iran's acceptance of the cease - fire plan has eased geopolitical risks, and the market's risk preference has recovered. The main support for the market comes from the expected positive policies in the future due to weak credit and inflation data [4]. - **Negative Factors**: There is no incremental policy signal in the short - term, and it is necessary to wait for the policy guidance from the Politburo meeting in July. The implementation of the cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel is still uncertain, and external risks may affect the market's risk preference [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of TL2509 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively, with an overall view of "oscillation" due to weak macro - economic indicators and rising expectations of monetary easing [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The overall short - term expectation is that Treasury bond futures will remain in an oscillatory consolidation state [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is the weak macro - economic indicators and the increasing expectation of monetary easing [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly pulled back. Geopolitical risks eased as Iran accepted a cease - fire plan with Israel, leading to a decline in risk - aversion sentiment [5]. - From a domestic macro perspective, the expectation of future interest rate cuts is clear, and there is strong support for Treasury bonds. The current macro - economic indicators are weakening marginally, and a loose monetary environment is needed for macro - policies in the second half of the year. Also, the increasing downward pressure on the US economy and the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts have reduced the exchange - rate pressure [5]. - The possibility of an immediate interest rate cut is low as the policy effect of the May interest rate cut needs to be evaluated. Macro - policies in the second half of the year await guidance from the Politburo meeting in July, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for Treasury bonds in the short term [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be weak in the short - term, with short - term and intraday outlooks of decline and a mid - term outlook of oscillation due to geopolitical conflict easing and significant technical pressure on gold prices [1][3] - Nickel is expected to be strong in the short - term, with short - term and intraday outlooks of increase and a mid - term outlook of oscillation. Short - term geopolitical conflict easing, improved overseas macro conditions, and increased market risk appetite may lead to a rebound in nickel prices [1][5] 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term decline, mid - term oscillation, intraday decline, and a short - term weak outlook [1][3] - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical conflict between Israel and Iran has eased as both sides agreed to a full cease - fire. Market risk appetite has increased, putting pressure on gold prices. Attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average of Shanghai gold and New York gold [3] Nickel (NI) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term increase, mid - term oscillation, intraday increase, and a short - term strong outlook [1][5] - **Core Logic**: The main nickel futures price stabilized at the 117,000 level and rebounded slightly at night. With the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, the overseas macro situation has improved, and market risk appetite has increased. Fundamentally, nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia remains strong, stainless steel is weak, nickel sulfate is stable, and inventory shows internal - external differentiation. The short - term macro improvement may lead to a rebound in non - ferrous metals and a bottom - up recovery of nickel prices. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the 120,000 level [5]