本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 周度产量 212.18 4.61 225.51 -13.33 230.53 -18.35 高炉产能利用率（%） 90.79 0.21 90.69 0.10 89.76 1.03 表观需求量 219.19 -0.78 248.68 -29.49 235.77 -16.58 钢联建材成交周均值 9.74 -0.22 10.17 -0.43 11.19 -1.45 总库存 551.07 -7.01 581.05 -29.98 775.66 -224.59 厂内库存 182.32 -0.57 186.46 -4.14 202.57 -20.25 社会库存 368.75 -6.44 394.59 -25.84 573.09 -204.34 螺纹钢周度数据（20250620） 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 400 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 螺纹钢周产量 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 70 75 80 85 90 95 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and nickel, suggesting a short - term bearish outlook for both [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Short - term view**: Down; Medium - term view: Sideways; Intraday view: Sideways to weak; Overall view: Bearish in the short - term [1]. - **Core logic**: The market sentiment has improved after a week of the Israel - Iran conflict, with the gold price rising and then falling, and the US stocks rebounding. The Fed's hawkish stance in the interest - rate meeting this week also puts pressure on the gold price. Although the dot plot shows two 25 - basis - point rate cuts this year, the number of committee members in favor of keeping rates unchanged has increased. In early June, the Sino - US meeting in the UK did not meet market expectations, and US inflation was lower than expected, leading to increased expectations of Fed rate cuts and a weakening US dollar. However, New York gold failed to break through the Q2 trading range, indicating strong resistance above. In the medium - to long - term, if the Middle East situation is under control, the gold price may remain under pressure in Q3 [3]. Nickel - **Short - term view**: Down; Medium - term view: Sideways; Intraday view: Sideways to weak; Overall view: Bearish in the short - term [1]. - **Core logic**: Yesterday, the nickel price fluctuated below 119,000 yuan and continued to do so during the night session. On the fundamental side, rainfall in the Philippines has affected shipments, and the slow approval of PKRB in Indonesia has kept the ore price strong. The stainless - steel market downstream is weak, and the negative feedback has compressed the smelter's profit. Inventory shows a divergence between domestic and overseas markets, with domestic inventory decreasing and overseas inventory increasing. In the short term, non - ferrous metals are falling, and nickel, which was previously weak, has limited room for further decline. Technically, the short - term main contract price has rebounded from the bottom, and attention should be paid to the technical resistance at 120,000 yuan [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 6 月 20 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 基本面未改善，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局延续季节性弱势，建筑钢厂有所提产，螺纹钢周产量环比微增，依旧处于相对 低位，关注后续持续性。与此同时，螺纹需求延续季节性走弱，周度表需弱稳运行，而高频成交表 现低迷，弱势需求仍将抑制钢价。目前来看，螺纹钢供应回升，而需求延续季节性弱势，基本面未 见好转，钢价仍将 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coils has improved, and the inventory has been reduced again. However, the supply remains at a high level and the sustainability of demand is questionable. The fundamentals are difficult to improve substantially, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will continue to fluctuate at a low level, with emphasis on demand performance [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 325.45 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.80 tons, remaining at a high level this year, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.79%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.21 percentage points [2][8] Demand - The weekly apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 330.69 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10.81 tons, returning to a relatively high level this year, but the high - frequency transactions are weakening. The fundamentals of the main downstream cold - rolled products and the peripheral risks have eased, providing support for the demand of hot - rolled coils [2][8] Inventory - The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 340.17 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.24 tons. The factory inventory is 76.52 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 tons. The social inventory is 263.65 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.23 tons [2]

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议，请务必阅读文末免责条款。 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 13,894.16 -38.98 13,866.58 27.58 14,883.27 -989.11 247家钢厂进口矿库存 8,936.24 137.56 8,754.33 181.91 9,214.13 -277.89 45港铁矿石到货量 2,384.50 -224.80 2,151.30 233.20 2,207.40 177.10 全球19港铁矿石发货量 3,352.70 -157.70 3,188.70 164.00 3,455.00 -102.30 247家钢厂日均铁水产量 242.18 0.57 241.91 0.27 239.94 2.24 45港日均疏港量 313.56 12.31 326.68 -13.12 311.52 2.04 247家钢厂进口矿日耗 301.00 0.57 299.68 1.32 294.01 6.99 主港铁矿成交周均值 100.45 15.63 96.94 3.51 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The price of Shanghai copper declined in the afternoon. The rebound of the US dollar index and the slight increase in the social inventory of electrolytic copper on Thursday put pressure on the copper price. The short - term price dropped, and attention should be paid to the technical support at the previous price center of 78,000 [5]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price showed a weak shock in the afternoon, and the monthly spread continued to decline. The good domestic macro - atmosphere and the strong performance of the black sector provided support. The continuous destocking of electrolytic aluminum and good domestic demand also supported the price. The price may continue to rise strongly, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price fluctuated below 119,000, with little change in the position. It has been weak in the non - ferrous sector since last week due to industrial and news factors. The price shows signs of stabilizing in the short term, and attention should be paid to the technical pressure at 120,000 [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative copper product output was 9.537 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The top three provinces in terms of output were Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu. Chile's Potrerillos copper smelter is expected to resume operation at the end of July [9]. - **Aluminum**: In May 2025, China's alumina output was 748,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%; the cumulative output from January to May was 3.7401 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. The electrolytic aluminum output in May was 382,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%; the cumulative output from January to May was 1.859 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.0% [10]. - **Nickel**: On June 19, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the Shanghai nickel 2507 contract. The prices of different types of nickel were provided, such as the price of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was 121,480 yuan/ton [10]. 4. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic explicit inventory, LME copper注销仓单比例, copper monthly spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: There are charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Charts of nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME nickel inventory, SHFE nickel inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory are provided [36][38][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On June 19, 2025, stock indices oscillated and declined. The probability of the US getting involved in the Middle East has increased, raising the risk of an escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical crisis, which has suppressed the risk appetite of the stock market. Domestically, although consumption data showed resilience under national subsidy policies, weak credit and inflation data indicated insufficient endogenous growth momentum in domestic demand, leading to an increased expectation of policy support. However, the profit expectation of stocks has not been repaired yet, and the support for stock indices mainly comes from loose capital and risk appetite. New incremental policies are needed for stock indices to continue rising. There are still uncertainties externally, such as the evolution of the tariff war after the suspension period ends in early July and the development of the Middle - East geopolitical crisis. In the short term, market risk appetite tends to be defensive, and stock indices will mainly oscillate within a range, waiting for new driving forces. Since the implied volatility of options is at a relatively low historical quantile level and the support for stock indices is strong, bull spreads or ratio spreads long - position portfolios can be arranged [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1 Option Indicators - On June 19, 2025, 50ETF fell 0.62% to 2.733; 300ETF (SSE) fell 0.79% to 3.873; 300ETF (SZSE) fell 0.87% to 3.995; CSI 300 Index fell 0.82% to 3843.09; CSI 1000 Index fell 1.42% to 6048.22; 500ETF (SSE) fell 1.00% to 5.718; 500ETF (SZSE) fell 1.13% to 2.285; ChiNext ETF fell 1.43% to 2.005; Shenzhen 100ETF fell 1.08% to 2.645; SSE 50 Index fell 0.54% to 2665.52; STAR 50ETF fell 0.59% to 1.01; E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 0.40% to 0.99 [5] - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options changed compared with the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 103.41 (previous day: 91.03), and the position PCR was 87.00 (previous day: 90.00) [6] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in June 2025 or July 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of underlying assets were provided for different options. For instance, the implied volatility of at - the - money SSE 50ETF options in June 2025 was 11.64%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 8.44% [7] 2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Included charts of SSE 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [9][11][13] - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Included charts of SSE 300ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [20][22][23] - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Included charts of SZSE 300ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [23][25][27] - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Included charts of CSI 300 Index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [35][37][39] - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Included charts of CSI 1000 Index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [48][50][52] - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Included charts of SSE 500ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [62][64][66] - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Included charts of SZSE 500ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [76][78][80] - **ChiNext ETF Options**: Included charts of ChiNext ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [89][91][93] - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Included charts of Shenzhen 100ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [102][104][106] - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Included charts of SSE 50 Index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [115][117][119] - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Included charts of STAR 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [128][130][132] - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Included charts of E Fund STAR 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [131][133][136]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 豆类 | 报告 专业研究·创造价值 生猪 2025 年 6 月 19 日 豆类 美豆需求疲软 天气与政策仍存隐忧 核心观点 美国农业部 6 月报告虽维持美豆 2025/26 年度库存和价格预测不变， 但凸显了需求疲软的压力，全球大豆 2025/26 年度库存因中国压榨下调 而上调，强化供应宽松格局。同时，美豆需求坍塌表现为对华出口停滞和 南美替代固化，推动中美贸易格局质变为"供应链隔离"。全球压榨需求 收缩和美豆粕出口压力增加进一步加剧市场担忧，未来焦点转向 6 月末 种植面积报告和天气风险。 EPA 大幅提高生物燃料掺混目标并限制进口 RINs 的政策提案，是点 燃美国大豆压榨需求进一步扩张的导火索。该政策将显著提升豆油在生 柴中的占比和消费量，进而大幅增加美豆压榨需求。尽管美国压榨产能持 续扩张，但需求的激增将使得本已处于历史低位的 2025/26 年度美豆库 存面临更大压力，加剧美豆新作紧平衡格局。同时，北美压榨量的提升将 对四季度全球豆粕市场形成冲击，与南美压榨旺季及阿根廷关税调整叠 加，可能加剧区域豆粕过剩风险。考虑到美豆供需结构高度依赖 EPA ...

1. Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures showed a volatile consolidation trend. The latest macroeconomic data indicates that the economic growth momentum has slowed down, the impact of external tariffs has begun to emerge, and the endogenous momentum of domestic demand is insufficient. In the future, a relatively loose monetary policy is needed to support economic demand. However, in the short term, the policy interest rate was not lowered in June because the effect of the interest rate cut in May remains to be verified. The expectation of an interest rate cut may need to wait for the policy guidance from the Politburo meeting in July and the observation of the monetary policy trends of the overseas Federal Reserve. The possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is relatively low. Overall, Treasury bond futures will remain in a volatile consolidation pattern in the short term [2] 2. Industry News and Related Charts - On June 19, the People's Bank of China announced that it conducted 203.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations through a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method. Both the bid volume and the winning bid volume were 203.5 billion yuan, and the operating interest rate was 1.40%. Data shows that there were 119.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing today, resulting in a net injection of 84.2 billion yuan in the open market [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: On June 19, the main coke contract closed at 1374 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.11%. The position of the main contract was 50,300 lots, a decrease of 1,539 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quoted price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, with a futures warehouse receipt cost of about 1,401 yuan/ton. As positive factors accumulate, the previously pessimistic market sentiment has changed, and some short positions have taken profits and left the market. The market is expected to be in a stalemate in June, and coke futures may continue to fluctuate widely [5][33]. - **Coking Coal**: On June 19, the main coking coal contract closed at 790.5 points, down 0.13% intraday. The position of the main contract was 536,100 lots, a decrease of 13,631 lots from the previous trading day. The latest price of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 865 yuan/ton, down 2.8% week - on - week, with a futures warehouse receipt cost of about 834 yuan/ton. During the safety month, domestic coking coal production has shrunk, and the price inversion of imported coal has also restricted imports. However, the long - term oversupply pattern has not been completely reversed, and there is still insufficient driving force for a significant increase in coal prices. Coking coal is expected to fluctuate widely at a low level in the near future [6][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - **Crude Steel Production**: In May 2025, China's crude steel production was 86.545 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. From January to May, the cumulative crude steel production was 431.631 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. From January to May 2025, Hebei ranked first with a production of 92.8269 million tons, followed by Jiangsu with 52.49 million tons and Shandong with 30.3332 million tons [8]. - **Coking Coal Price in Jinzhong**: On June 19, the coking coal price in Jinzhong market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of medium - sulfur main coking coal being 940 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Coke**: The quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was priced at 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, down 5.22% from the end of last month, 24.85% from the end of last year, and 36.18% from the same period. The quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was priced at 1,170 yuan/ton, down 0.85% from the previous week, 4.10% from the end of last month, 27.78% from the end of last year, and 40.61% from the same period [10]. - **Coking Coal**: The Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port was priced at 865 yuan/ton, down 2.81% from the previous week, 5.98% from the end of last month, 26.69% from the end of last year, and 45.94% from the same period. The Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was priced at 1,210 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the previous week, down 4.72% from the end of last month, 18.79% from the end of last year, and 43.46% from the same period. The Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was priced at 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, down 3.10% from the end of last month, 18.30% from the end of last year, and 39.02% from the same period [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Coke**: The main coke contract closed at 1,374 yuan/ton, down 0.11%, with a trading volume of 22,325 lots, a decrease of 4,342 lots, and a position of 50,347 lots, a decrease of 1,539 lots [14]. - **Coking Coal**: The main coking coal contract closed at 790.5 points, down 0.13%, with a trading volume of 780,917 lots, a decrease of 53,292 lots, and a position of 536,104 lots, a decrease of 13,631 lots [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory from 2019 - 2025 [15][16][18]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants from 2019 - 2025 [21][24][26]. - **Other Charts**: Include Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [28][30][32]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Coke**: The market is expected to be in a stalemate in June, and coke futures may continue to fluctuate widely [5][33]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal is expected to fluctuate widely at a low level in the near future, and attention should be paid to supply and geopolitical developments [6][34].