x30003 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 9 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 甲醇 | 周报 2025 年 10 月 9 日 甲醇周报 专业研究·创造价值 偏空因素主导 甲醇震荡回落 核心观点 甲醇：节前两个交易日，受困于国内外甲醇供应压力增大，而 下游烯烃需求偏弱影响，叠加港口库存居高不下。甲醇期货基本面乏 力导致其主力 2601 合约呈现震荡回落的走势，期价自 2367 元/吨一线 跌落至 2328 元/吨，累计跌幅达 1.15%。1-5 月差维持在贴水 34 元/ 吨。 甲醇-MA 国庆长假期间，美国联邦政府意外停摆，系统性风险发生，导致 全球金融市场避险情绪大幅升温，黄金期货走强，其他大宗商品普遍 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Before the National Day holiday, domestic rubber futures were affected by a weak supply - demand structure and weakening macro - sentiment, leading to a downward trend in rubber prices. During the holiday, the US federal government shutdown increased global financial market risk aversion, and although Typhoon "Medom" might bring a production - cut expectation, the industry's positive outlook could not counter the macro - bearish sentiment. After the holiday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 continued its weak trend, and it is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [6][55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot price and basis**: In the week of September 30, 2025, the spot price of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned full - latex (SCRWF) oscillated around 14,300 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis between the spot and the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract was at a discount of 730 yuan/ton, with the degree of discount slightly narrowing [10]. - **Futures price**: In the two trading days before the holiday, the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 dropped 2.84% to 15,030 yuan/ton; the standard rubber futures contract 2512 fell 2.81% to 12,100 yuan/ton; and the synthetic rubber futures contract 2512 declined 2.63% to 11,110 yuan/ton [6][15]. 3.2 2025 Third - Quarter Global Rubber Market Supply - Demand Improvement - **Southeast Asian producers**: In August 2025, ANRPC member countries produced 107.87 million tons of rubber, a month - on - month increase of 1.05 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.02 million tons (1.84% decline). From January to August 2025, the total production was 685.36 million tons, a 0.96% increase from the same period last year. Consumption in August was 89.99 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.71 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 4.42 million tons (4.68% decline). From January to August, total consumption was 717.51 million tons, a 3.60% decrease from the same period last year. In export, Thailand and Indonesia had significant year - on - year increases in the January - August period, while Malaysia and Vietnam had slight decreases [25][29]. - **China's imports**: In August 2025, China imported 66.4 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber, a 7.8% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the total import was 537.3 million tons, a 19.03% increase from the same period last year [33]. - **Domestic tire market**: In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 102.954 million pieces, a 9.1% month - on - month and 1.5% year - on - year increase. Semi - steel tire production was about 58.06 million pieces, and full - steel tire production was about 13.03 million pieces. Tire exports were strong, with semi - steel tire exports reaching 325,900 tons, a record high. From January to August, China's rubber tire exports were 6.5 million tons, a 5.1% year - on - year increase. As of September 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a 0.10 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, a 0.03 - percentage - point week - on - week increase [36][37]. - **Domestic auto market**: In August 2025, China's auto production and sales were 2.815 million and 2.857 million vehicles respectively, a 13% and 16.4% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles, a 12.7% and 12.6% year - on - year increase. In the new - energy vehicle sector, production and sales in August were 1.391 million and 1.395 million vehicles respectively, a 27.4% and 26.8% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, the auto dealer inventory warning index was 54.5%, up 0.5 percentage points year - on - year and down 2.5 percentage points month - on - month. The logistics industry index in September was 56.1%, a record high. In August, the heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 35% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative sales in the first 8 months were 710,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [40][41]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of September 30, 2025, the Shanghai rubber futures inventory decreased by 3,613 tons week - on - week, while the registered warehouse receipts increased by 390 tons. As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 456,500 tons, a 1.01% decrease from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory remained flat, and the general - trade inventory decreased by 1.18% [53]. 3.3 Conclusion - After the National Day holiday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 continued its weak trend, with an obvious short - term moving - average trend. It is expected that the contract will maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [55].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level due to the accumulation of contradictions in the iron ore fundamentals, with the supply returning to a high level while the demand is likely to weaken, despite the support from the warm atmosphere in the overseas commodity market during the holiday [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively oscillating, oscillating, and oscillating with a slight upward bias. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA60 line, and the core logic is the accumulation of real - world contradictions leading to high - level oscillations of the ore price [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - During the holiday, the SGX iron ore swaps oscillated upwards, and the spot price increased slightly. However, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakening. Steel mill production is weak, the terminal consumption of ore has declined from a high level, and contradictions in the steel market are accumulating with weakening demand resilience. - The arrival of iron ore at domestic ports during the holiday remained high, overseas ore shipments were active under high ore prices, and domestic ore supply recovered, causing the iron ore supply to return to a high level. - Overall, the warm atmosphere in the overseas commodity market during the holiday supported the ore price, but with the supply back at a high level and demand likely to weaken, the fundamental contradictions of iron ore are accumulating. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - **Soybean Oil**: Due to the US government shutdown causing a lack of key data, it's difficult to accurately assess the short - term supply - demand pattern of US soybean oil. Brazil may not raise the biodiesel blending ratio from 15% to 16% before March 2026. Indian palm oil imports in September are estimated to drop to a four - month low, while soybean oil imports may reach a three - year high. With reduced international supply disruptions and strong demand, the US soybean oil futures price is oscillating strongly, which boosts domestic prices. However, domestic prices are also affected by domestic soybean costs, so short - term prices will be in a wide - range oscillation [4][40][42]. - **Palm Oil**: In September, Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 7.29 - 9.62% month - on - month. Analysts expect the September - end inventory to be 2.5% lower at 2.15 million tons due to lower production and higher exports. As Southeast Asian production declines from the seasonal peak and demand is boosted by festivals, inventory pressure may ease. But the weakening international crude oil price during the holiday weakens the support for palm oil's biodiesel demand. After the National Day holiday, focus on market capital inflows, and short - term prices will be oscillating strongly [5][42]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Recently, the harvest pressure of Canadian rapeseed has increased, and exports are weak. The tight supply still supports prices, and domestic inventories are decreasing. In the short term, low domestic inventories and the end of the aquaculture peak season create a long - short game. Ukraine's export tax - exemption policy for rapeseed during the National Day will affect market sentiment. After the holiday, focus on the resumption of production by domestic processing enterprises, and short - term prices may be volatile [6][43]. Summaries by Directory 1 Market Review 1.1 Three Major Oils' Spot Prices Fluctuate Differently - The spot price of Grade - 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang is 8350 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 9060 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price of imported rapeseed - produced rapeseed oil in Guangdong is 10250 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan week - on - week [10]. 1.2 Rapeseed Oil Futures Prices Continue to Show a Stronger Trend - The futures prices of the three major oils in the domestic market showed different trends this week, with rapeseed oil relatively stronger. In terms of capital, the trading volume of all three major oils increased significantly, while soybean oil and palm oil saw significant position reductions [14]. 2 Malaysian Palm Oil Inventory Expected to Fall, Ukraine's Rapeseed Export Tax - Exemption 2.1 Argentina's Tax - Exemption Policy Ends, US Government Shutdown Halts USDA Reports - After Argentina's brief export tax exemption, there are still 7.6 million tons of soybean products and 8.9 million tons of corn worth $4.93 billion for sale. The government has now restored export taxes, with 24.5% for soybean products and 9.5% for corn. The US government shutdown since October 1st led to the cancellation of the weekly export sales report, and analysts previously expected US soybean net sales to be between 300,000 and 1.5 million tons last week [21]. - An Indian industry insider expects the 2025/26 soybean oil imports to increase by 9% to 5.5 million tons compared to the current year, and palm oil imports may drop to about 7.5 million tons from the 2024/25 estimate of 7.9 million tons [22]. 2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil Inventory Expected to Fall, EU Palm Oil Imports Down Year - on - Year - Due to expected production decline from the seasonal peak and potential increased purchases from India during festivals, Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to drop from a 20 - month high. It's predicted to reach about 1.7 million tons by the end of 2025, a 23% reduction from August. Malaysia's 2025 palm oil exports are expected to reach 17.3 million tons, higher than previous expectations and last year's figure. In 2025, production will not exceed 19.5 million tons [23][24]. - From September 1 - 25, 2025, the palm oil production in South Malaysia decreased by 4.14% month - on - month. In 2025/26, EU palm oil imports are down 25% year - on - year, with Malaysia's share increasing [24]. 2.3 Canadian Rapeseed Harvest Accelerates, Ukraine's Rapeseed Export Tax - Exemption - Nearly three - quarters of Canadian rapeseed has been harvested, with better - than - expected yields. The accelerated harvest increases supply pressure. Ukraine has established a new export mechanism to exempt qualified producers from export tariffs, aiming to resume rapeseed exports [25][26]. 2.4 Inventories of Three Major Oils Continue to Decline - Data on the import costs of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil from different countries and regions are provided, including CBOT closing prices, CNF prices, and import costs in RMB [28][29]. 3 Conclusion - **Soybean Oil**: The short - term price will oscillate widely due to data shortages, potential Brazilian policy changes, and strong international demand [40][42]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term prices will oscillate strongly considering inventory changes, production trends, and international crude oil prices [5][42]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term prices may be volatile due to harvest pressure, supply - demand imbalances, and policy impacts [6][43].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to have a long - term upward trend, with short - term and medium - term increases and an intraday view of being oscillating strongly, driven by the start of interest rate cuts and intensified geopolitical situations [1][3] - Copper is expected to maintain a long - term upward trend, with short - term, medium - term and intraday increases, due to a macro - loose background, renewed mining end disturbances and a rapid rise in capital attention [1][5] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: During the 2025 National Day holiday (October 1 - 8), international gold prices continuously rose. New York gold futures and London gold broke through the $4000/ounce key psychological level, with a holiday increase of over 4% and a year - to - date increase of over 50% [3] - **Core Driving Factors**: There are three main driving factors. Firstly, the surge in避险需求 is dominated by government shutdown and geopolitical conflicts. The US federal government shutdown since October 1 has raised concerns about US fiscal sustainability and debt credit, and historical data shows that gold has positive returns when the government shutdown exceeds 10 days. Geopolitical events such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict, Middle - East conflicts, Japanese political changes and French prime minister's resignation have also weakened sovereign currency confidence. Secondly, in terms of monetary policy expectations, interest rate cut trading and damaged US dollar credit are at play. Trump's interference in the Fed's independence and rising US debt risks have accelerated the "de - dollarization" trend. Thirdly, there is a structural influx of funds, with central banks and ETFs buying gold together, and the global central bank net gold - buying wave continues [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: During the National Day holiday, the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price broke through $10500 and reached $10800, hitting a new high for the year [5] - **Core Driving Factors**: There are three main factors. Supply is tight due to double squeezes at the mining and smelting ends. The major accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia and previous production cuts in Chilean copper mines have tightened the global copper concentrate supply. From a macro and financial perspective, there are expectations of Fed interest rate cuts and a weakening US dollar. The Fed cut interest rates in September, and further cuts are expected, which will boost market risk sentiment and may weaken the US dollar, benefiting copper prices. There is also a link between risk - aversion sentiment and the sector. The US government shutdown and global geopolitical turmoil have driven up the gold price, which has a positive impact on copper. On the demand side, there is demand resilience. In the domestic "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season, the copper product industry's operating rate has rebounded, and grid investment, air - conditioning and motor industries have stable demand. In the long - term, global energy transformation, especially AI computing center construction and grid investment, strongly supports copper demand [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2511 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term weak oscillation, medium - term oscillation, and an intraday decline [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Contents a. Price Movement and View Classification - For price movement calculation, for varieties with night trading, the night - trading closing price is the starting price; for those without, the previous day's closing price is used. The daily daytime closing price is the end price to calculate the rise - fall range [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is weak oscillation, a rise of 0 - 1% is strong oscillation, and a rise greater than 1% is an increase. Strong/weak oscillation only applies to intraday views, not short - and medium - term views [3][4]. b. Crude Oil Market Analysis - Core logic: During the National Day holiday, the unexpected shutdown of the US federal government led to a significant increase in global financial market risk - aversion sentiment. Gold futures strengthened, and other commodities were generally under pressure. Eight OPEC+ oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, increasing the supply pressure in the oil market. Although eight foreign ministers called for an end to the Gaza war, Israel's combat state remains unchanged. The US WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices dropped by about 1% during the holiday. With geopolitical premium support weaker than systematic risks, the domestic crude oil 2511 contract is expected to show a weakly oscillating trend on the first trading day after the holiday [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 10 月 9 日） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 策略参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 品种观点参考 备注： 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：目前市场聚焦的两大变量：一是巴西大豆出货速度将直接影响短期全球大豆供应格局；二是中 美农产品贸易磋商进展，短期内外盘豆类期价走势仍显分化，中长期来看一旦贸易关系改善，内外盘联动 性将得到修复。国庆期间，由于美国政府停摆，美农报告暂停发布，美豆期价在缺乏报告数据的指引下， 对国内市场的关联影响有所减弱。国庆假期过后，国内豆类市场或将延续节前交易逻辑，震荡格局不改。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures products of Baocheng Futures on October 9, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Power Coal - The report shows the basis and inter - period spreads of power coal from September 24 to September 30, 2025. The basis on September 30 was - 102.4 yuan/ton, and all inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) were 0.0 [1][2] Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - It provides the basis, price ratios, and other data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and other energy commodities from September 24 to September 30, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on September 30 was 13.33 yuan/ton [7] Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of rubber on September 30 was - 730 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month inter - period spread of rubber was - 15 yuan/ton [11] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on September 30 was 2298 yuan/ton [11] Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown. For example, the 5 - 1 month inter - period spread of rebar was 54.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on September 30 was 3.95 [20] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of rebar on September 30 was 138.0 yuan/ton [21] Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of copper on September 30 was 80 yuan/ton [28] London Market - Data such as LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on September 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (42.98) [33] Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on September 30 was 33 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads of various agricultural products are provided, including soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton. For example, the 5 - 1 month inter - period spread of soybeans No.1 was 32 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on September 30 was 1.83 [38] Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on September 30 was 22.69 [50] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 9.8 [50]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 10 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 假期累库显著，钢价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 假期建筑钢材现货价格持稳为主，库存增 57.39 万吨，处于往年中性偏高水平，而螺纹钢供需 双弱格局未变，建筑钢厂生产趋弱，产量再度回落，但减量空间有限，且库存偏高，利好效应不 强。与此同时，节前下游需求有所改善，而下游未见好转，需求改 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 10 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 基本面边际走弱，焦煤期货震荡 | | | | | | | | 调整 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 成本支撑走弱，焦炭区间震荡运 | | | | | | | | 行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦 ...