Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The power coal fundamentals are weakening, and the inventory at northern ports has started to stabilize and rebound, which exerts certain pressure on coal prices. It is expected that the power coal price will maintain a weak operation after the holiday [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Market Atmosphere - During the National Day holiday, port coal prices basically stabilized, while coal prices at production areas were under pressure and declined. The market atmosphere was generally dull during the transition between winter and summer [4]. Supply - The impact of the anti - involution production capacity verification was basically released in September. In October, coal mine production in major producing areas gradually resumed. Coupled with the good cost - effectiveness of imported coal, the overall supply of power coal increased steadily [4]. Demand - During the National Day holiday, the temperature in some coastal areas remained above 30°C, providing some support for residential electricity consumption. However, with the improvement of hydropower and wind power output, thermal power demand showed a seasonal weakening trend [4]. Inventory - As of September 26, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.2789 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 7300 tons, and 220,000 tons lower than the inventory of the same period last year [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term and intraday views of being oscillatory and weak, and mid - term views of decline [1][5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trend**: Short - term oscillatory and weak, mid - term decline, intraday oscillatory and weak, overall expected to run weakly [1][5] - **Core Logic**: During the National Day holiday, the unexpected shutdown of the US federal government led to a significant increase in risk - aversion sentiment in the global financial market. Commodities were generally under pressure, and the main contract of Japanese rubber futures had a cumulative maximum decline of 3.83%. Typhoon "Maidoum" might cause yield reduction in natural rubber planting areas. Before the holiday, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a weak downward trend, so it is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on the first trading day after the holiday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trend**: Short - term oscillatory and weak, mid - term decline, intraday oscillatory and weak, overall expected to run weakly [1][6] - **Core Logic**: During the National Day holiday, the US federal government shutdown increased global risk - aversion sentiment. Commodity prices were under pressure. The prices of US WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures had a cumulative decline of about 1%. Due to weak cost support and a weak supply - demand structure, and the 2511 contract of synthetic rubber futures showed a weak downward trend before the holiday, it is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on the first trading day after the holiday [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The short - term view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is a decline, and the overall reference view is weak operation [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Performance and View - The methanol 2601 contract shows short - term weakness, medium - term decline, and intraday weakness, with a core logic of being dominated by bearish factors and weak and volatile [1]. 3.2 Core Logic - During the National Day holiday, the unexpected shutdown of the US federal government led to a systemic risk, increasing global financial market risk - aversion sentiment. Gold futures strengthened, while other commodities were generally under pressure. Domestically, methanol's high operating rate and weekly output, along with increasing external import pressure and high post - holiday port inventory, contribute to the bearish outlook. Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin market profit is poor, and the weak demand situation remains to be improved [5]. Calculation Rules - For commodities with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price. A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% is weakly volatile, a rise of 0 - 1% is strongly volatile, and a rise greater than 1% is an increase. Strongly/weakly volatile only applies to intraday views [2][3][4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the IH2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillating upward, with an overall view of wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between short - term capital profit - taking willingness and the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy favorable expectations [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM varieties, the intraday view is oscillating upward, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that on September 30, all stock indices oscillated upward. The full - day trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 219.72 billion yuan, an increase of 19.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The manufacturing PMI in September continued to recover, indicating strong resilience in the domestic macro - economy. Coupled with the expectation of favorable policies from important meetings in October, market risk appetite continued to rise. However, in the short term, due to the significant increase in the stock valuation, especially when the index rebounded near the previous high, there was still a demand for profit - taking by profitable funds. It is necessary to pay attention to the game between the subsequent profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations. In general, since the index is close to the previous high, the stock index is expected to be mainly in wide - range oscillation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The time - cycle is defined as short - term within one week, medium - term from two weeks to one month. For the IH2512 variety, short - term is oscillation, medium - term is upward, intraday is oscillating upward, with a view of wide - range oscillation, and the core logic is the game between short - term capital profit - taking and long - term policy expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties are IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is oscillating upward, the medium - term view is upward, the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The trading volume on September 30 increased, the manufacturing PMI continued to recover, and there are policy expectations in October, but short - term profit - taking demand exists, so the short - term stock index is expected to oscillate widely [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and overall reference view for TL2512 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the long - and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The 9 - month manufacturing PMI continued to improve, but the price index was still weak, indicating potential concerns in the macro - demand side. Future monetary policy is still inclined to be loose, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has greatly decreased, and the rising risk preference in the stock market has suppressed the demand for treasury bonds. So, in the short term, the upward momentum and downward space of treasury bond futures are both limited, and they are expected to oscillate at a low level [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Section 1: Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is the long - and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts and the low short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut [1]. Section 2: Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The improvement of the manufacturing PMI in September and the weak price index show macro - demand concerns. Future monetary policy support and short - term factors like the low possibility of interest rate cuts and stock - market influence lead to the expected low - level oscillation of treasury bond futures [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening, and significantly closing lower. With the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation fulfilled, the rubber market has shifted to a weak supply - demand structure. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract presented a trend of increasing volume and positions, weakening, and slightly falling. Suppressed by the weak supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening, and significantly closing lower. With the geopolitical risks in the Middle East significantly cooling down, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 45.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.47 million tons or 1.01% from the previous period. The storage and delivery rates of warehouses changed [8]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises was slightly adjusted. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased, while that of full - steel tire sample enterprises increased [8]. - In August 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers was 57.0%, the logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, and the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year [9]. Methanol - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.51%, and the weekly output was 187.27 million tons [10]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE changed. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 83.03%, and the futures profit of methanol to olefin decreased [10]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 126.81 million tons, and the inland methanol inventory was 32 million tons [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 418, and the daily crude oil output was 1.3501 billion barrels [13]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory was 415 million barrels, the Cushing crude oil inventory was 23.561 million barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 405.7 million barrels. The refinery operating rate was 93.9% [13]. - As of September 23, 2025, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market increased significantly week - on - week, while those in the Brent crude oil futures market decreased significantly [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,550 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | 15,030 yuan/ton | - 345 yuan/ton | - 480 yuan/ton | + 345 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,275 yuan/ton | + 3 yuan/ton | 2,328 yuan/ton | - 31 yuan/ton | - 53 yuan/ton | + 31 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 473.7 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 479.7 yuan/barrel | - 10.8 yuan/barrel | - 6.1 yuan/barrel | + 10.5 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber - related charts include rubber basis, rubber 1 - 5 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [17][19][21]. - Methanol - related charts include methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 spread, domestic port methanol inventory, inland social methanol inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [30][32][36]. - Crude - oil - related charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [42][44][46].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 30, 2025, all stock indices fluctuated and rose. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets throughout the day was 2197.2 billion yuan, an increase of 19.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The manufacturing PMI continued to recover in September, indicating strong resilience in the domestic macro - economy. Coupled with the expectation of policy benefits from the important meeting in October, market risk appetite continued to rise. However, in the short term, due to the significant increase in the stock valuation, especially when the index rebounded near the previous high, there was still a need for profit - taking by profitable funds. It was necessary to pay attention to the game between the subsequent profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations. In general, since the index was approaching the previous high, the stock index was expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Currently, the implied volatility of options has rebounded. Considering the long - term upward trend of the stock index, one could continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads [3] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1 Option Indicators - On September 30, 2025, the 50ETF rose 0.55% to close at 3.126; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.27% to close at 4.741; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.31% to close at 4.895; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.45% to close at 4640.69; the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.03% to close at 7574.96; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.76% to close at 7.519; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.74% to close at 3.002; the ChiNext ETF rose 0.12% to close at 3.217; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.19% to close at 3.615; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.53% to close at 2988.94; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.75% to close at 1.57; the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 1.79% to close at 1.54 [5] - The report also provided the volume PCR and open - interest PCR data for various options on September 30, 2025, and compared them with the previous trading day [6] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in October 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets were presented for different options [7][8] 2 Related Charts - The report included charts related to the trends, option volatilities, volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatilities of different terms for various options such as the SSE 50ETF option, SSE 300ETF option, Shenzhen 300ETF option, CSI 300 Index option, CSI 1000 Index option, SSE 500ETF option, Shenzhen 500ETF option, ChiNext ETF option, Shenzhen 100ETF option, SSE 50 Index option, STAR 50ETF option, and E Fund STAR 50ETF option [9][21][33][45][56][70][83][96][109][122][135][142]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper price increased with higher trading volume last night, and the main contract price broke through the high point in March this year, followed by intraday volatile adjustment. Since Freeport announced a copper mine production cut on September 24th, the copper price has shown a significant increase with higher trading volume, attracting rapid attention from capital and showing strong upward momentum. As China is about to enter the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, attention should be paid to overseas market volatility risks [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fluctuated downward today, with a continuous decline in open interest. Last week, affected by the sharp rise in copper prices, the aluminum price stabilized and rebounded, but the overall rebound was weak. Before the domestic holiday, there were signs of inventory reduction in electrolytic aluminum, providing support for the aluminum price. With a loose macro - environment and a marginal improvement in the supply - demand balance during the peak industrial season, there was an obvious outflow of funds before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the industrial demand situation after the holiday [5]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel price fluctuated downward today, with a slight decline in open interest. The sector - wide effect of the non - ferrous metals sector driven by copper prices has faded, and the nickel price has dropped back to the level at the beginning of last week. At the industrial level, the long - term oversupply of nickel elements continues to suppress the nickel price. In the short term, the slowdown in the accumulation of nickel ore at ports and the reduction of nickel inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange provide support for the nickel price. Continuous attention should be paid to the technical support at the 121,000 yuan mark [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued improvement in the manufacturing industry's prosperity level. On September 30th, SMM reported that as the National Day holiday approached, the downstream procurement sentiment of refined copper rod enterprises was weak. The high copper price and the short price - fixing period for downstream customers near the contract roll - over jointly suppressed new orders [8]. - **Nickel**: On September 30th, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 121,000 - 123,900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,450 yuan/ton, a rise of 450 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,350 yuan/ton, a rise of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 150 - 100 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant inventory [9][11][12][14][17][18]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [21][23][25][27][29][31]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts on nickel basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel price trend, nickel monthly spread, and nickel ore port inventory [33][37][40][42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and sorted out, with a slight increase. The manufacturing PMI in September continued to improve, but the price index was still weak, indicating hidden concerns on the macro - demand side. Future monetary policy remains biased towards easing, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has greatly diminished, and the rising risk appetite in the stock market has inhibited the demand for Treasury bonds, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for Treasury bond futures. Overall, both the upward momentum and downward space are limited in the short term, and Treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate and sort out at a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry News - In September, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level continued to improve [4]. - On September 30, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 242.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations through a fixed - rate, quantity - tendering method [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Coke**: As of the week ending September 26, the combined daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1127,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 5900 tons. The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton, with losses widening by 17 yuan/ton, suppressing coking enterprises' production enthusiasm. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2,423,600 tons, a weekly increase of 13,400 tons. This week, coke inventory shifted downstream. The inventory of independent coking plants and ports decreased, while the inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 166,400 tons to 6,613,100 tons, and the total industrial chain coke inventory increased by 52,300 tons to 9,204,100 tons. Overall, the coke fundamentals have limited drivers, policy uncertainty decreases, market waiting - and - seeing sentiment rises, and pre - holiday capital outflows lead to the weak operation of coke futures [5][32]. - **Coking Coal**: Pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment was released. Since the night session last Friday, JM2601 has continuously reduced positions with a downward - trending price, indicating that the market is mainly characterized by long - position holders taking the initiative to exit. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of coking coal is not obvious, supply is slowly recovering, and demand is stable. The fundamentals lack support, and the recent "anti - involution" policy disturbances have eased, resulting in strong market waiting - and - seeing sentiment. As of the week ending September 26, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 772,000 tons, a weekly increase of 11,000 tons but 25,000 tons lower than the same period last year. At the import end, the number of Mongolian coal trucks passing through the 288 port continued to rise, approaching 8000 trucks per week. The combined daily output of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1127,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 5900 tons. Overall, the impact of previous production capacity verifications was basically realized in September, the positive "anti - involution" expectations slowed down, the actual supply of coking coal recovered marginally, and pre - holiday long - position holders' risk - aversion demand led to the oscillatory correction of the main contract. During the holiday, focus on changes in economic policy expectations and whether an increase in coal mine accidents will lead to stricter safety supervision [6][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - **Manufacturing PMI**: China's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 51.0%, up 0.2 percentage points; medium - scale enterprises' PMI was 48.8%, down 0.1 percentage points; small - scale enterprises' PMI was 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points. Among the five sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index and the supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below the critical point [7]. - **Coking Coal Price in Xingtai**: On September 30, the coking coal prices in the Xingtai market remained stable. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal was 1490 yuan/ton, and the price of 1/3 coking coal was 1170 yuan/ton, both being ex - factory cash - inclusive prices effective from the 1st [9]. Spot Market - **Coke and Coking Coal Prices**: Provided the price quotes and changes of coke and coking coal in different markets such as Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Ganqimao Port, and Jingtang Port, including week - on - week, month - on - month, year - on - year, and compared with the same period changes [11]. Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Included charts of coke inventory in 230 independent coking plants, port coke inventory, 247 steel - mill coking plant coke inventory, and total coke inventory [14][15][17]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Included charts of coking coal inventory at mine mouths, in ports, in all - sample independent coking plants, and in 247 sample steel mills [19][22][24]. - **Other Charts**: Included charts of domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod and screw - thread steel procurement, washing - plant production, and coking - plant operation [25][28][30]. Future Outlook - **Coke**: The analysis of coke's supply, demand, and inventory was the same as the core view, concluding that the weak operation of coke futures was due to limited fundamentals, decreased policy uncertainty, increased market waiting - and - seeing sentiment, and pre - holiday capital outflows [32]. - **Coking Coal**: The analysis of coking coal's supply, demand, and market sentiment was the same as the core view, suggesting that the oscillatory correction of the main contract was due to pre - holiday risk - aversion, limited fundamentals, and marginal supply recovery. Attention should be paid to economic policy expectations and safety supervision during the holiday [33].