1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar continued to fluctuate, with a daily increase of 0.13%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The current situation of weak supply and demand for rebar remains unchanged, with poor fundamentals during the off - season, putting continued pressure on steel prices. However, low inventory levels mean there are few real - world contradictions. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate at low levels, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated at a low level, with a daily increase of 0.13%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, hot - rolled coil supply is stable, but the pressure has not eased. Demand has improved, but its sustainability needs to be tracked. The fundamentals are weakly stable, and prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is that overseas risks are easing. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.43%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The current pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, the fundamentals of iron ore continue to be weak, and the futures price discount is continuously being repaired. Under the dominance of negative factors, it is expected that iron ore prices will continue to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to changes in hot metal production [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - From January to May 2025, China's excavator production was 140,575 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. In May 2025, the production was 25,845 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%. For tractors, in May 2025, the production of large, medium, and small tractors was 7,165 units, 17,451 units, and 11,000 units respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 32.8%, 13.3%, and 8.3%. From January to May 2025, the production of large, medium, and small tractors was 58,725 units, 121,414 units, and 54,000 units respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 2.4%, 8.0%, and 18.2%. Overall, from January to May 2025, the production of major mechanical equipment in China varied. Excavators, metal - cutting machine tools, and metal - forming machine tools had the most obvious production growth, with year - on - year increases of 13.9%, 13.3%, and 11.3% respectively; the production of small tractors decreased significantly, with a year - on - year decrease of 18.2% [6]. - After the end of the air - conditioning cold year, the export production schedule for July decreased by 17.7%. In April, the traditional sales peak season started, and enterprises significantly increased resource investment, leading to a rapid increase in retail data. The 618 promotion started on May 13th, and combined with the trade - in policy, retail data increased again. According to Aowei Cloud Network's aggregated data, in May, air - conditioning retail sales increased by 30.4% online and 27.1% offline. The high retail growth drove the acceleration of enterprise production and a high base in the second quarter. In July 2025, the production schedule for household air - conditioners was 14.31 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. Among them, the domestic sales production schedule was 8.82 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%; the export production schedule was 5.49 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 17.7% [7]. - According to National Bureau of Statistics data, in May 2025, China's crude steel production was 86.545 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%; from January to May, the cumulative crude steel production was 431.631 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In terms of provincial and municipal data, from January to May 2025, Hebei ranked first with a production of 92.8269 million tons; Jiangsu ranked second with a production of 52.49 million tons; Shandong ranked third with a production of 30.3332 million tons [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,060, 3,200, and 3,219 respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and - 5. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,190, 3,100, and 3,229 respectively, with changes of - 10, - 10, and - 4. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,910 with no change, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,130 with a change of 30. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 130 with no change, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 930 with a change of - 40 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 710 with a change of 1; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder was 707 with a change of - 3. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil were 9.62 and 25.07 respectively, with changes of - 0.91 and - 0.80. The SGX swap price (current month) was 94.17 with a change of - 0.25, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 92.75 with a change of - 0.35 [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 2,986, with a daily increase of 0.13%, a high of 3,002, a low of 2,975, a trading volume of 1,180,366 (a decrease of 146,607), and an open interest of 2,132,733 (a decrease of 1,210) [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,103, with a daily increase of 0.13%, a high of 3,120, a low of 3,092, a trading volume of 398,637 (a decrease of 85,432), and an open interest of 1,488,632 (a decrease of 13,154) [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 698.0, with a daily increase of 0.43%, a high of 703.0, a low of 691.5, a trading volume of 392,127 (a decrease of 46,650), and an open interest of 678,221 (a decrease of 6,843) [11]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, total inventories (steel mills + social inventories), national 45 - port iron ore inventories, 247 - steel mill iron ore inventories, domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventories, as well as charts on steel mill production such as the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, proportion of profitable steel mills, independent electric furnace operating rate, and the profit and loss situation of independent electric arc furnace steel mills [13][18][28]. 3.5后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand continued to decline. Weekly production decreased by 108,900 tons, and supply continued to contract to the lowest level of the year, leading to inventory reduction and providing support for steel prices. However, due to good profit per ton of the product, the sustainability of production cuts is questionable. Meanwhile, rebar demand continued to weaken seasonally, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 124,000 tons, and high - frequency daily transactions were lower than normal, both remaining at low levels in recent years. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged, still likely to suppress steel prices. Overall, the situation of weak supply and demand for rebar remains unchanged, with poor fundamentals during the off - season, putting continued pressure on steel prices. However, low inventory levels mean there are few real - world contradictions. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate at low levels, and attention should be paid to demand performance [35]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern continued to weaken. Although mill maintenance led to a decrease in hot - rolled coil production, with a weekly decrease of 41,000 tons, it was still at a high level of the year, and mills mainly focused on protecting plate production, so the supply pressure was difficult to relieve. Meanwhile, hot - rolled coil demand was weakly stable, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 10,400 tons, and high - frequency transactions rebounded at a low level, mainly due to the high - level production of the downstream cold - rolling industry. However, industrial contradictions were still accumulating, and attention should be paid to the pressure caused by the intensification of contradictions. The relatively positive factor was the progress in China - US trade negotiations and the easing of overseas risks. In short, the supply of hot - rolled coil was stable, the pressure was not relieved, demand improved but its sustainability needed to be tracked, the fundamentals were weakly stable, prices continued to be under pressure, and the relatively positive factor was the easing of overseas risks. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [35]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern weakened as expected, and inventory continued to accumulate. During the off - season, steel mill production weakened, and the terminal consumption of ore continued to decline. Last week, the average daily hot metal production and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills decreased month - on - month, but the decline was relatively limited. Considering the obvious weakening of steel market demand during the off - season, there was still room for further reduction in the future, and the weak demand pattern remained unchanged. Meanwhile, the arrival at domestic ports decreased, and the shipments from overseas miners also decreased but remained at a high level of the year. According to the shipping schedule, the arrival volume was expected to increase again, and the domestic ore supply was weakly stable. Overall, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remained unchanged, the fundamentals of iron ore continued to be weak, and the futures price discount was continuously being repaired. Under the dominance of negative factors, it is expected that iron ore prices will continue to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to changes in hot metal production [36].

Report Overview - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run in a relatively strong pattern, with short - term and intraday trends being oscillating and strong, and medium - term trends being oscillating [1][5][7] Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Short - term View: Oscillating and strong [1] - Medium - term View: Oscillating [1][5] - Intraday View: Oscillating and strong [1][5] - Reference View: Running in a strong pattern [1][5] - Core Logic: Since this week, the conflict between Iran and Israel has continued to escalate, with missile attacks on energy facilities, increasing the premium of energy - chemical products. The resonance factor supports the Shanghai rubber futures to maintain a strong pattern. The weak supply - demand structure of the rubber market is covered by the bullish atmosphere. On Wednesday night, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillating and consolidating trend, with the price slightly down 0.11% to 13,985 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Thursday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Short - term View: Oscillating and strong [1] - Medium - term View: Oscillating [1][7] - Intraday View: Oscillating and strong [1][7] - Reference View: Running in a strong pattern [1][7] - Core Logic: Since this week, the conflict between Iran and Israel has continued to escalate, with missile attacks on energy facilities, increasing the premium of energy - chemical products. The cost factor and resonance factor support the synthetic rubber futures to maintain a strong pattern. The weak supply - demand structure of synthetic rubber is covered by the bullish atmosphere. On Wednesday night, the 2508 contract of synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillating and strong trend, with the price slightly up 0.35% to 11,555 yuan/ton. It is expected that the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures will maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Thursday [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on June 19, 2025, including power coal, energy - chemical products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][4][13][21][39][46] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the basis of power coal remained at - 192.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0 [2] 3.2 Energy - Chemical 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - **Basis Charts**: There are basis charts for crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio chart of crude oil to asphalt, showing the relationship between spot prices and futures prices [5][6][8] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the basis data of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. are presented, with different values and trends [9] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month for multiple chemical products are provided, including natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. [9] - **Inter - variety Spread Data**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. are given from June 12 to June 18, 2025 [9] 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis Data**: From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the basis data of black metals including rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented, with different values and trends [14] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of rebar (5 - 1 month, 10 - 1 month, 10 - 5 month) and those of iron ore, coke, and coking coal (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are provided [14] - **Inter - variety Spread Data**: The inter - variety spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc. are given from June 12 to June 18, 2025 [14] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the domestic basis data of non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are presented, with different values and trends [22] - **LME - related Data**: On June 18, 2025, data such as LME forward premiums/discounts, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss for non - ferrous metals are provided [29] 3.4.2 London Market - **Relevant Charts**: There are LME basis charts, Shanghai - London ratio charts, and import profit/loss charts for non - ferrous metals [31][32][33] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the basis data of agricultural products including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. are presented, with different values and trends [39] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month for multiple agricultural products are provided, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. [37][39] - **Inter - variety Spread Data**: The inter - variety spreads such as soybean 1/corn, soybean 2/corn, etc. are given from June 12 to June 18, 2025 [37] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the basis data of stock index futures including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented, with different values and trends [47] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of multiple contracts (next month - current month, current quarter - current month, etc.) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided [47]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-06-19 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2508 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 强势运行 | 地缘因素支撑，原油强势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：强势运行 核心逻辑：本周以来，伊朗和以色列冲突持续升级，双方导弹空袭目标转向能源设施，导致能化商 品溢价提升。同时美军双航母舰队开往中东，英法德等国也派遣军力援助以色列，冲突存在进一步 扩大的风险。近期过往霍 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views - The short - term view of the stock index is range - bound, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is slightly bullish. Policy - side positive expectations provide strong support, and the latest macro - economic indicators' marginal weakening has increased the expectation of future policy benefits, which forms a bottom support for the stock index. However, there are still uncertainties externally, and the market risk preference is defensive in the short term [1][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term trend is sideways, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is slightly bullish, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is that policy - side positive expectations provide strong support [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is range - bound. Yesterday, each stock index continued to trade in a narrow range. The central bank announced 8 major financial policies at the Lujiazui Forum, which helps promote the high - quality development of the financial industry and further promotes financial opening - up. The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, the trading volume of the stock market remains stable, and the marginal weakening of macro - economic indicators has increased the expectation of policy benefits. Externally, there are uncertainties such as the evolution of the tariff war after the suspension period ends in early July and the evolution of the Middle East geopolitical crisis, so the market risk preference is defensive in the short term [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term views of both coking coal and coke are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, with a reference view of low - level oscillation. The coking coal market has a supply - demand stalemate, and the coke market has a weak fundamental situation but is supported by coking coal costs [1][5][6] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For coking coal 2509, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and bullish respectively, with a reference view of low - level oscillation due to the interweaving of long and short factors [1] - For coke 2509, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and bullish respectively, with a reference view of low - level oscillation because of the stalemate between long and short [1] Price and Market Analysis of Coking Coal - On the night of June 18, the main coking coal contract fell slightly by 785 yuan/ton, a 0.82% decline. The latest offer of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port was 865.0 yuan/ton, a 2.8% week - on - week decline, with a futures warehouse receipt cost of about 834 yuan/ton. The change in market sentiment comes from supply - side disturbances and macro - positive expectations. However, it will take time to reverse the supply - loose pattern, and the supply pressure may return after July. The marginal positive effect of the Sino - US London economic and trade consultation mechanism on terminal demand is limited, and the key may be the impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on international energy prices [5] Price and Market Analysis of Coke - On the night of June 18, the main coke contract opened higher and declined slightly, maintaining a low - level oscillation pattern. After three rounds of price cuts, the coke price was stable this week. The latest offer of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1270 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the futures warehouse receipt cost was about 1401 yuan/ton. The coke market has a pattern of both supply and demand decline. Recently, the marginal decline in coking coal production and international events have strengthened the cost support of coke futures, driving the price to stop falling and stabilize [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% in its June meeting, with reduced but still high uncertainty about the outlook. It also adjusted GDP and inflation forecasts [3]. - Multiple financial regulatory departments announced measures at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum to promote high - level opening up of the financial market [2][15]. - Various commodity markets showed different trends, including changes in inventory, production, and trading policies [5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In Q1 2025, GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, unchanged from the previous quarter [1]. - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up from 49.0% in the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, down from 50.4% [1]. - In May 2025, M0, M1, and M2 had different year - on - year growth rates, with M0 at 12.1%, M1 at 2.3%, and M2 at 7.9% [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Qualified foreign investors can participate in more domestic commodity futures and options starting from June 20 [2]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted trading rules for some futures contracts [2]. - Multiple financial regulatory departments announced policies at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum to support Shanghai's international financial center construction [2][15]. 3.2.2 Metal - India restricted imports of palladium - rhodium alloys with a gold content over 1% [5]. - London Metal Exchange inventories of various metals changed, and the gold ETF's holdings increased [5]. - "New Bond King" Gundlach predicted that gold would reach $4000 [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Nippon Steel completed the acquisition of U.S. Steel for $14.9 billion [7]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - China's May imports and exports of energy and chemical products showed different trends, such as a 10.4% increase in gaseous natural gas imports [8]. - Russia and some OPEC+ countries may increase crude oil production [8][9]. - EIA data showed changes in U.S. oil and gas inventories and production [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The government planned to reduce the inventory of breeding sows by about 1 million [12]. - As of June 18, the national "Three Summers" wheat harvest was 96% complete [12][13]. - The global cotton market may see increased production, and domestic cotton fundamentals are improving [13]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - The central bank conducted 1563 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 77 billion yuan [14]. - The central bank issued 30 billion yuan of central bank bills in Hong Kong on June 18 [14]. 3.3.2 Key News and Information - Multiple financial regulatory departments announced policies at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum to promote high - level opening up [15]. - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate, adjusted GDP and inflation forecasts, and influenced financial markets [16]. - Various domestic and international economic and political events occurred, such as government officials' investigations and international trade disputes [17][18] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market showed narrow fluctuations, with different trends in bond yields and futures [25]. - European bond yields generally declined, while U.S. bond yields rose [29]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down, and the US dollar index rose [30]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Guosheng Fixed Income believed that the 10 - year Treasury bond has high investment value [31]. - Yangtze River Fixed Income expected the June capital market to remain stable [31]. - CITIC Securities analyzed the possible nomination of the next Fed Chairman [32]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The CSRC announced policies to support the listing of unprofitable enterprises on the Sci - tech Innovation Board and ChiNext [35]. - The A - share market had a narrow range of fluctuations, while the Hong Kong stock market declined [35]. - Multiple companies' IPO progress was reported, such as Moore Threads and MiniMax [37]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views - Gold is expected to be short - term bearish, with a short - term decline, medium - term oscillation, and intraday oscillation on the weaker side. The main factors include the Fed's interest rate decision, market sentiment on the Israel - Iran situation, and the expected decline in the gold - silver ratio [1][3]. - Nickel is also short - term bearish, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday oscillations on the weaker side. Influencing factors involve the situation of the upstream mining supply, downstream stainless - steel operation, and technical price trends [1][5]. 3) Summary by Variety Gold - Short - term: Expected to rise; Medium - term: Oscillation; Intraday: Oscillation on the weaker side; Overall view: Short - term bearish. The core logic is that after the Fed's June interest - rate decision to keep rates unchanged and signal two 50 - basis - point cuts this year, the gold price declined. The market is optimistic about the Israel - Iran situation, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to decline [1][3]. Nickel - Short - term: Oscillation; Medium - term: Oscillation; Intraday: Oscillation on the weaker side; Overall view: Short - term bearish. The upstream mining price remains strong due to factors like rainfall in the Philippines and slow PKRB approval in Indonesia. The downstream stainless - steel is weak, squeezing the smelter's profit. Technically, the price has strong downward momentum after breaking below 120,000 yuan, but the short - term main contract price has rebounded from the bottom [1][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The soybean meal market's upward trend has slowed down, but due to cost support and capital concentration, the short - term decline space is relatively limited. The palm oil market is supported by factors such as international price differentials, import costs, and strong international oil prices, showing an overall upward trend [5][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, and the medium - term view is strong. The reference view is oscillating weakly [5]. - **Core Logic**: As the weather theme weakens, the US soybean futures price enters a consolidation phase. The US soybean crushing demand is supported by bio - fuel policies, offsetting concerns about the decline in US soybean exports. The short - term upward trend of US soybean futures has slowed down, but the phased trend is still prone to rise. In the domestic market, cost support remains, and although the upward trend of the meal market has slowed, the short - term decline space is limited in the context of capital concentration [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is strong. The reference view is oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic**: Recently, the international soybean - palm oil price differential has widened, supporting palm oil demand. The increase in import costs has led to a stronger domestic palm oil price. The strong operation of international oil prices has also boosted the palm oil market. With the support of funds, the overall rebound trend of the oil and fat sector continues, and the short - term palm oil futures price is oscillating strongly [7].

宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 供需格局走弱，矿价偏弱震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局偏弱运行，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗弱势下行，且淡季仍有减量空间，需求 弱势格局未变。相反，矿石供应维持高位，尽管港口到货和矿商发运均有所下降，但财年末矿商有所 冲量，近期发运均位于年内高位，按船期推算后续到货仍将回升。总之，供强需弱格局未变，铁矿石 ...