投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 5 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢格局平稳运行，周产量环比微增，继续位于年内高位，相应的周度表需回升，需求迎来 改善，但仍易季节性走弱，供高需弱局面下螺纹基本面矛盾易积累，钢价继续承压运行，相对利好 还是库存偏低，预计钢价走势将延续震荡寻底走势，重点关注需求变化情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价弱势震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term performance of domestic and foreign bean futures prices is still in a volatile range, and the palm oil price has limited rebound space and is expected to be volatile and strong [5][8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Bean Meal (M) - **View**: The intraday, short - term, and reference views are all volatile and strong, and the medium - term view is volatile [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: With the increase in imported soybeans, most oil mills' operating rates are gradually recovering. The提货量 of oil mills has rebounded rapidly and is higher than the same period in previous years. After terminal replenishment, the enthusiasm for further procurement is not high. The domestic market continues to trade on the "weak reality, strong expectation" logic. The weather during the US soybean sowing period, China's procurement rhythm, and the loading rhythm of South American soybeans continue to affect the performance of US soybean futures prices. Recently, the linkage between domestic and foreign bean futures prices has been repaired [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **View**: The intraday, short - term, and reference views are all volatile and strong, and the medium - term view is volatile [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: The production and demand of palm oil in Southeast Asia are both increasing. Whether the export of Malaysian palm oil can remain strong determines whether the inventory of Malaysian palm oil will continue to accumulate. Indonesia's increase in the export tax on crude palm oil is beneficial to boosting the export of Malaysian palm oil and alleviating the inventory pressure. The increase in domestic palm oil purchases by importers helps to replenish the low domestic palm oil inventory. Although there is a certain recovery expectation for palm oil demand, the reaction in the spot market is limited, and the short - term rebound space of palm oil is limited [8]. 3.3 Soybean Oil (2509) - **View**: The intraday, short - term, and reference views are all volatile and strong, and the medium - term view is volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: It is affected by US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The iron ore market shows a situation of strong current reality and weak future expectations, and the ore price will continue to fluctuate. The iron ore fundamentals are weakening, with demand falling from a high level and supply remaining high and expected to rise. However, due to high - level demand and deep futures price discounts, the downward resistance is large. Attention should be paid to the change in hot metal production [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are both expected to be volatile, and the intraday trend is expected to be slightly bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level at the MA10 line [2]. Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakening. Steel mill production is weakening, and ore demand is starting to decline, but the decline is relatively limited, still providing some support for ore prices, yet the upward momentum is weakening. - Port arrivals have dropped to a low level again, leading to a decrease in port inventories. However, overseas miners' shipments have increased significantly, reaching the second - highest weekly level this year, and subsequent arrivals are expected to rise. Domestic ore production is also active, and ore supply remains at a relatively high level. - Currently, iron ore demand is falling from a high level, while supply remains high and is expected to increase. The supply - demand pattern is weakening, but due to high - level demand and deep futures price discounts, the downward resistance is large, resulting in a volatile trend for ore prices. Attention should be paid to the change in hot metal production [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term view on gold is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see. The core logic is that the easing of Sino - US relations is negative for the gold price, while the rising expectation of a US recession is positive for it. Also, local geopolitical tensions and a weakening US economy provide impetus for the gold price to rebound [1][3]. - The short - term view on nickel is decline, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see. The core logic is that the strong upstream and weak downstream lead to nickel's oscillation. The upstream ore end is strong, providing support for the futures price, while the downstream stainless steel lacks a continuous upward drive [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the intraday gold price oscillated, and it rose significantly during the night session. Shanghai gold increased in positions and rose, breaking through the 760 mark and standing above 770. New York gold reached around $3300. Technically, Shanghai gold broke through 760 and New York gold broke through $3250 in the short term, showing strong upward momentum [3]. - **Driving Factors**: Multiple US officials revealed that Israel may be preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. Local geopolitical tensions and a weakening US economy give impetus for the gold price to rebound. It is advisable to continue to focus on the long - short game around $3300 in the short term [3]. Nickel - **Price Performance**: The main nickel futures price showed a downward trend near the end of trading yesterday but rebounded at the night session, regaining the 123,000 mark. Last week, the nickel price twice reached 126,000 and then declined, facing significant upward pressure [5]. - **Driving Factors**: The upstream ore end remains strong, providing support for the futures price. Nickel sulfate is stable, and the downstream stainless steel rose and then declined, lacking a continuous upward drive. Technically, the nickel price rebounded after reaching the bottom and still has strong technical support at the 123,000 mark [5].

Report Title - Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report (May 20, 2025) [1] Core Content 1. Thermal Coal - **Base Price Data**: From May 13 - May 19, 2025, the base price of thermal coal was -182.4, -184.4, -187.4, -187.4, -189.4 respectively, with 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads all at 0.0 [2] 2. Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - **Base Price and Ratio**: From May 13 - May 19, 2025, the base price of INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt showed different changes. For example, the base price of INE crude oil on May 19 was -14.51, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1386 [6] Chemical Commodities - **Base Price, Spread, and Cross - Variety Data**: For various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., from May 13 - May 19, 2025, the base price, cross - period spreads (e.g., 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month), and cross - variety spreads (e.g., LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP) all had different values. For example, the base price of natural rubber on May 19 was -5 [7] 3. Black Metals - **Base Price, Spread, and Cross - Variety Data**: For products like rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, from May 13 - May 19, 2025, the base price, cross - period spreads (e.g., 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month for iron ore, coke, coking coal; 5 - 1 month, 10 - 1 month, 10 - 5 month for rebar), and cross - variety ratios (e.g., rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke) all had different values. For example, the base price of rebar on May 19 was 111.0 [12] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - **Base Price Data**: For copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin, from May 13 - May 19, 2025, the domestic base prices had different values. For example, the base price of copper on May 19 was 310 [21] London Market - **LME Premium, Shanghai - London Ratio, CIF, Domestic Spot, and Import Profit/Loss**: For copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin, on May 19, 2025, the LME premium, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss had different values. For example, the LME premium of copper was 15.52, and the import profit was 72.09 [27] 5. Agricultural Products - **Base Price, Spread, and Cross - Variety Data**: For products like soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., from May 13 - May 19, 2025, the base price, cross - period spreads (e.g., 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month), and cross - variety ratios (e.g., soybean/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal) all had different values. For example, the base price of soybeans on May 19 was -222 [35] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Base Price and Cross - Period Data**: For CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, from May 13 - May 19, 2025, the base prices had different values, and the cross - period spreads (e.g., next month - current month, current quarter - current month) also had different values. For example, the base price of CSI 300 on May 19 was 33.95 [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In April 2025, China's economy withstood pressure and maintained stable growth, but external uncertainties remained, and the foundation for continuous economic recovery needed further consolidation [2][11][12] - The A - share market is expected to enter an era of mergers and acquisitions, and the current valuation is relatively low with prominent allocation value; the report is still optimistic about the performance of Hong Kong stocks [30][31] - The bond market is supported by fundamentals and policies, but there are also short - term challenges and uncertainties [19][25][26] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q1 2025 grew by 5.4% year - on - year, the same as the previous quarter and higher than the same period last year [1] - In April 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 50.5% in the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.4%, down from 50.8% in the previous month [1] - The year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 in April 2025 were 12.0%, 1.5%, and 8.0% respectively, with M0 and M2 accelerating compared to the previous month [1] - In April 2025, the CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year, the same as the previous month; the PPI was - 2.7% year - on - year, down from - 2.5% in the previous month [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In April 2025, China's industrial added value, service industry production index, and social consumer goods retail sales all grew year - on - year, while real estate investment declined [2] - In April 2025, the new home prices in first - and second - tier cities were flat month - on - month, and those in third - tier cities declined slightly; the year - on - year decline in housing prices in all tiers continued to narrow [2] - The US adjusted the relevant statements of chip export control, but the discriminatory measures and market - distorting nature remained unchanged, and China urged the US to correct its mistakes [3][14] - The chairman of Zhongcai Futures and the company became the largest copper bull in China, accumulating nearly $1 billion in bets [3] 3.2.2 Metals - The European Central Bank believes that the gold market may pose a risk to financial stability [4] - The London Metal Exchange plans to set a position limit to curb excessive bets [5] - Saudi Mining Company will explore the establishment of a rare - earth supply chain with a US rare - earth producer [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Hyundai Steel will close its rebar factory in Incheon, South Korea in April [6] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The EU will propose to the G7 finance ministers to lower the price cap on Russian seaborne oil [7] - Abu Dhabi National Oil Company reached agreements with multiple US energy companies, potentially locking in $60 billion in investment [7] - Turkey discovered a new natural gas field with a reserve of 75 billion cubic meters in the Black Sea [7] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In April 2025, China's industrial feed production was 27.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9% [8] - In 2024, the global coffee price soared by 38.8%, hitting a new high in recent years [8] - The US Department of Agriculture reported that the number of pigs and pig inventories in the US was 74.512 million [8] - Datagro estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2024/25 season would reach 169.1 million tons, and the corn production would be 126.9 million tons [9] 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On May 19, 2025, the central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 92 billion yuan [10] 3.3.2 Key News - The new LPR is expected to decline in May 2025 [11] - In April 2025, China's industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and social consumer goods retail sales all showed year - on - year growth, and the urban surveyed unemployment rate decreased [11] - In April 2025, among 70 large and medium - sized cities, the number of cities with rising new home prices decreased, and housing prices were generally stable but still in the adjustment phase [13] - China urged the US to correct its discriminatory chip export control measures [14] - In April 2025, the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales showed a certain pattern, and cross - border funds showed a net inflow [14] - A new round of RMB deposit rate cuts is about to take place [17] - The US Treasury Secretary warned that some US trading partners may face a significant increase in tariff rates [17] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - Treasury bond futures closed higher, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly declined [19] - The exchange bond market had mixed performances, and the convertible bond market also showed different trends [19][20] - The money market interest rates showed different trends, and the yields of domestic and foreign bonds also changed [21][22] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower, and the US dollar index declined [23] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed Income is cautious about convertible bonds and suggests prioritizing low - price varieties [25] - CICC Fixed Income summarized the characteristics of urban investment issuers' 2024 annual reports [25] - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the impact of Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating may have ended [26] - Yangtze River Fixed Income believes that there is no continuous tightening pressure on the capital market but short - term disturbances exist [26] - Shenwan Fixed Income believes that the bond market may focus on loose trading in the short term [27] - Xingzheng Fixed Income believes that the pressure on domestic growth stabilization may increase in Q2 [28] 3.4 Stock Market - The A - share market had a narrow - range consolidation, with merger and acquisition concept stocks rising, and the North - bound 50 index hitting a record high [30] - Hong Kong stocks declined slightly, with pharmaceutical stocks active and Apple concept stocks under pressure [31] - Guizhou Moutai's 2024 annual general meeting responded to multiple hot topics [31] - Xinhua Insurance was approved to participate in the third - batch pilot of long - term insurance fund investment [31] - Leapmotor's Q1 performance was excellent, with revenue increasing significantly and the loss narrowing [32] - CATL's H - shares were listed, and Hengrui Medicine's H - shares were about to be listed [32]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of oscillation on the weak side [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Market Performance - On the night of Monday this week, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract slightly closed down 0.53% to 2,269 yuan/ton [5]. Core Logic - With the gradual digestion of macro - positive factors, there is a lack of fundamental support for the continued upward movement of methanol futures prices [5]. - Multiple domestic coal - to - methanol plants have restarted one after another, and the supply pressure has rebounded again, hitting a new weekly production high [5]. - The improvement in downstream demand is limited, and the profit of methanol - to - olefin futures has declined, which is not conducive to the continued reduction of port inventories [5]. - With the expected increase in external imports, the pressure on social inventory accumulation will increase in the future [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端迎来变化，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石需求有所减量，当前降幅仍有限，给予矿价支撑， 但已然趋于触顶，利好效应趋弱。与此同时，港口到货延续回落，但海外矿商发运则是大幅增加，外 矿供应高位，相应的内矿生产依然积极，矿石供应压力偏大。目前来看，铁矿石需求趋于触顶，而供 应维持高位，供需格局在走弱，相对利好则是需求维持高位，且期价贴水较大，下行阻力存在，预计 矿价延续震荡运行态势，关注铁水变化情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean meal market is trading on the "weak reality, strong expectation" logic due to increased imported soybean arrivals and rising oil - mill operating rates. Short - term soybean meal futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. - The international palm oil market is full of uncertainties. The short - term palm oil futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and the overall oil market remains in a wide - range oscillation range. [5][7] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - cycle Views**: The intraday view is weakly oscillating, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is weakly oscillating. - **Core Logic**: With more imported soybeans arriving and most oil mills' operating rates rising, the domestic market trades on the "weak reality, strong expectation" logic. The US soybean market is more sensitive to yield risks and trade - policy changes. The spread between domestic and foreign soybean futures has been gradually repaired, and short - term soybean futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. [5] For Palm Oil (P) - **Time - cycle Views**: The short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are all weakly oscillating, and the reference view is also weakly oscillating. - **Core Logic**: The international oil market is full of uncertainties. The US soybean oil biodiesel demand is unclear, and Indonesia's export tax increase affects its export advantage, boosting Malaysia's palm oil exports. However, Malaysia's palm oil is in a stage of both increasing production and demand and cannot have an independent market. Rapeseed oil is the strongest among the three major oils and has some positive influence on palm oil. Overall, the oil market remains in a wide - range oscillation range, and short - term palm oil futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and nickel futures, suggesting a wait - and - see approach for both [1]. - For gold, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend. The main logic is that Sino - US relations are easing and there is an expectation of an end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which reduces the market's risk - aversion demand [1][3]. - For nickel, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend. The core logic is that the upstream is strong while the downstream is weak, so nickel prices tend to move sideways [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Last week, the overall gold price showed a downward trend. New York gold repeatedly bottomed out and rebounded after falling below $3200. Yesterday, the gold price oscillated above $3200, and the corresponding Shanghai gold oscillated above 755 yuan with a narrowing amplitude [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The decline in gold prices is due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the expectation of an end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which reduces the market's risk - aversion demand. The rebound is due to the recession expectation caused by the downward trend of the US economy. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, which supported the gold price. The "signals" from the second and third - in - command of the Fed indicate that there may be no interest rate cuts before September, causing the US dollar to rebound and putting pressure on the gold price [3]. - **Viewpoint**: The short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend, and the reference view is to wait and see. Short - term attention can be paid to the support level of $3200 [1][3]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the main nickel futures price oscillated weakly around 124,000 yuan. Last week, the nickel price twice hit a high of 126,000 yuan and then fell back, facing significant upward pressure [5]. - **Driving Factors**: The upstream ore end remains strong, providing support for the futures price. Nickel sulfate is stable, and the downstream stainless steel has stabilized and rebounded but lacks a continuous upward driving force [5]. - **Viewpoint**: The short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend, and the reference view is to wait and see. Attention can be paid to the technical support level of 123,000 yuan [1][5].