◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA10 一线压力 | 供需格局弱稳，矿价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 5 月 12 日） 观点参考 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局迎来变化，钢厂生产趋稳，矿石需求维持高位，继续给予矿价支撑，但钢材需求 面临季节性走弱，难以承接高铁水局面，预计矿石需求将触顶，利好效应趋弱。与此同时，海外矿商 发运积极，而内矿供应回升，铁矿石供应维持高位，且增量预期未退。总之，中美贸易谈判取得实质 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the overall industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term prices of major agricultural products in the commodity futures market, including soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil, are expected to be in a state of shock, with an overall bias towards a weak shock [5][6][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Price View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weak", and the reference view is also "shock - weak" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: With the overall stable - to - weak spot prices of soybean meal in North China and Northeast China, the futures price fluctuates narrowly. The spot basis of soybean meal has accelerated its decline to 200, and market sentiment has weakened. With the expected arrival of a large number of imported soybeans gradually materializing, the domestic supply pressure after May is gradually emerging. Due to the low physical inventory of feed enterprises, there is still restocking demand in the later stage. The short - term soybean meal inventory has not yet reached an inflection point, and the accumulation of soybean meal in oil mills is expected to occur in late May. The short - term futures price of soybean meal will maintain a range - bound shock [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weak", and the reference view is also "shock - weak" [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: With the increasing supply of palm oil in Southeast Asia, the export competitiveness and demand prospects of palm oil will affect its inventory pressure. In China, with the increase in palm oil purchases, the domestic inventory is expected to rise from a low level. The reverse substitution of domestic palm oil has not started. In the oil and fat sector, although palm oil has substitution potential, the spot performance is limited, and there is a lack of obvious driving factors. Without capital attention, the futures price of palm oil will continue to follow the market passively [7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weak", and the reference view is also "shock - weak" [6]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic oil mill inventory, and channel restocking demand, the price is in a state of shock - weak [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the 2509 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a weak bias respectively, suggesting an oscillation approach. The market sentiment is bearish, and coking coal maintains a weak trend [1]. - For the 2509 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a weak bias respectively, also suggesting an oscillation approach. Due to insufficient cost support, coke oscillates and weakens [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Cost**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimao Port is 1030 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.48%, and the cost of equivalent futures warehouse receipts is about 1003 yuan/ton [5]. - **Policy Impact**: On May 7, a series of major favorable policies were announced at a press conference, but the coking coal futures still oscillate weakly due to obvious fundamental pressure and a loose supply pattern [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The safety supervision environment in domestic main production areas is stable, coal production in Shanxi is rising, and the customs clearance efficiency at the China - Mongolia 288 Port is acceptable. In the week of May 9, the combined daily average output of coke from coking plants and steel mills was 114.22 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 tons. Since late March, the recovery of coke output on the demand side has not reversed the loose supply situation of coking coal, and the market sentiment remains bearish [5]. 3.2 Coke (J) - **Fundamental Situation**: The fundamental pattern of coke has not changed much, with supply and demand remaining at a high level. Short - term demand support is good, but the growth rate on the demand side has started to decline, and the room for further increase in molten iron output is limited [6]. - **Price and Cost**: As of the latest quotation, the FOB price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at the port is 1440 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period, and the cost of equivalent futures warehouse receipts is about 1585 yuan/ton; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at the port is 1320 yuan/ton, and the cost of equivalent warehouse receipts is about 1454 yuan/ton [6]. - **Policy and Market Outlook**: On May 7, a "package" of incremental policies were announced. Although there is short - term demand for coke, overseas risks and cost - side pressure from coking coal still exist. It is expected that the main contract of coke will maintain low - level oscillation in the near future [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term view of thermal coal is to oscillate. The domestic stimulus policies have limited effect on boosting coal demand, and it is difficult to reverse the overall pattern of oversupply of thermal coal. The market sentiment remains pessimistic, and the thermal coal price is expected to continue to operate weakly in the near future [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Market Situation - This week, there were positive domestic macro news. On May 7th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce a series of policies to boost domestic demand such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and stabilizing the stock and property markets [5] Supply Side - In the new natural month, domestic coal mines resumed normal production, and the safety supervision environment in major producing areas such as Shanxi and Shaanxi was stable, not causing obvious resistance to coal mine production. In terms of imports, according to customs data on May 9th, China imported 37.825 million tons of coal and lignite in April, a 2.3% decrease from the previous month. Affected by domestic coal prices, the import cost - performance of foreign coal declined, and the import volume decreased compared with last year but remained at a relatively high level [5] Demand Side - May is the transition period between the winter and summer coal - using peak seasons, and the demand for thermal coal is generally weak. As of the end of April, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 1.858 million tons, an increase of 93,000 tons week - on - week; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 2.777 million tons, a decrease of 184,000 tons week - on - week. The coal consumption of power plants is at a low level this year [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 5 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 市场情绪回暖，钢价震荡企稳 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 周末钢材现货价格平稳运行，且螺纹钢供需格局在走弱，螺纹钢产量迎来下降，供应有所收 缩，但持续性不强，且需求走弱更加明显，供需格局并未好转，库存开始累库。总之，下游行业未 见好转，螺纹需求易季节性走弱，继续拖累螺纹基本面，钢价仍将承压，相对利好则是中美贸易谈 判取得实质性进展， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic policy benefits have been realized, market expectations have been released periodically, and futures have returned to fundamental games. - This week, the average daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 806,000 tons, a weekly increase of 2000 tons and 57,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Coking coal production has been rising since late March. - The profitability rate of steel mills remains at a relatively high level, and the short - term demand for coke is acceptable. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coke and Coking Coal Inventory - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory was 994,550 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,750 tons and a year - on - year increase of 137,410 tons. The inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 65,090 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1970 tons and a year - on - year increase of 19,740 tons; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 671,030 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4190 tons and a year - on - year increase of 114,320 tons; the port inventory was 297,810 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,970 tons and a year - on - year increase of 70,310 tons. [2] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory was 2,392,040 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22,310 tons and a year - on - year increase of 217,210 tons. The inventory of 523 coking coal mines was 390,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 131,700 tons; the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 916,620 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 42,660 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 229,200 tons; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 787,210 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2420 tons and a year - on - year increase of 38,120 tons. [2] 3.2 Capacity Utilization and Production - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 75.05%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.38 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.09 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mill coking plants was 87.22%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.39 percentage points. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 92.09%, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.42 percentage points; the steel mill开工率 was 84.62%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.12 percentage points. [2] - **Daily Output**: The daily output of 230 independent coking plants was 535,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 270 tons and a year - on - year increase of 860 tons; the daily output of 247 steel mill coking plants was 473,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 80 tons and a year - on - year increase of 180 tons. The average daily output of coal washing plants was 531,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 48,000 tons. [2] 3.3 Demand - **Coke Demand**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 92.09%, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.42 percentage points; the steel mill开工率 was 84.62%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.12 percentage points. The daily iron - making output was 2,456,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 111,400 tons. [2] - **Coking Coal Demand**: The total daily consumption of coking coal was 151,920 tons, a week - on - week increase of 110 tons. The available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking plants were 10.3 days, and the daily consumption was 88,990 tons, a week - on - week increase of 170 tons; the available days of coking coal for 247 steel mills were 12.51 days, and the daily consumption was 62,930 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60 tons. [2] 3.4 Profit - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 sample coking enterprises was 1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7 yuan/ton. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 58.87%, a week - on - week increase of 2.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.92 percentage points. [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 9 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 低库存给予铜铝支撑 核心观点 沪铜 沪铜主力期价昨日夜盘冲高，站上 7.8 万关口，今日早盘跳水， 日内震荡运行。美联储 5 月议息会议落地，整体偏鹰派，利空铜价。 短期铜价在 7.8 万一线仍有较强的技术压力。短期可持续关注 7.8 万 关口多空博弈，也可关注月间正套。消息面上，关注中美在瑞会 议，若中美贸易摩擦趋于缓和，将在宏观氛围和终端需求上利好铜 价。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of coke have changed little, with supply and demand remaining at a high level. Short - term demand is well - supported, but the growth rate of the demand side has begun to decline. It is expected that there is limited room for further growth in hot metal production. The domestic macro -利好 has been released, and the market has returned to the game between fundamentals and tariff policies. Although short - term coke demand is acceptable, there are still overseas risks and coking coal cost - side pressures. It is expected that the main coke contract will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the near future [5][33]. - For coking coal, domestic policy benefits have been realized, and the market has returned to fundamental trading. The current supply of coking coal is still expected to be loose, driving the futures to operate weakly. The market atmosphere is still bearish, which drives the coking coal price to operate weakly. The trend of Sino - US trade issues can be followed in the near future [6][34][35]. Summary According to the Catalog Industry News - In April 2025, China exported 1046.2 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%; from January to April, the cumulative export of steel was 3789.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In April, China imported 52.2 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%; from January to April, the cumulative import of steel was 207.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. In April, China imported 3782.5 million tons of coal and lignite, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%; from January to April, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 15267.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3% [8]. - On May 9, Mongolia's ER Company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of Meng 3 clean coal was 800 yuan/ton, and all 12800 tons of the listed quantity were unsold [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Week - on - Week Change | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Standard First - Grade Coke (Flat - Price) | 1440 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 32.71% | | Qingdao Port Standard First - Grade Coke (Out - of - Warehouse Price) | 1320 yuan/ton | - 1.49% | - 1.49% | - 34.00% | | Ganqimao Port Mongolian Coking Coal | 1030 yuan/ton | - 0.48% | - 0.48% | - 38.69% | | Jingtang Port Australian - Produced Coking Coal | 1300 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 41.18% | | Jingtang Port Shanxi - Produced Coking Coal | 1400 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 36.36% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1446.5 | - 2.10 | 1478.0 | 1444.0 | 19882 | - 8388 | 50769 | 2405 | | Coking Coal | - | 877.5 | - 1.79 | 892.5 | 877.0 | 323286 | - 67585 | 403016 | 27997 | [14] Market Outlook - Coke: The fundamentals remain stable, with short - term demand supported but limited growth in hot metal production. After the release of domestic macro -利好, the market will focus on fundamentals and tariff policies. The main contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5][33]. - Coking coal: Policy benefits have been realized, and the market returns to fundamentals. The supply is expected to be loose, driving the futures to operate weakly. Attention can be paid to the Sino - US trade issue [6][34][35].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 9 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场预期偏弱，钢矿承压运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价弱势下行，录得 1.63%日跌幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 螺纹钢供需格局有所走弱，螺纹钢产量环比下降，供应迎来收缩，但假 期因素扰动下需求走弱更加明显，周度表需环比大降，继而导致库存开 始增加，关注持续性，且下游行业并未改善，需求仍会季节性走弱，继 续拖累螺纹基本面，钢价仍将承压弱势震荡寻底，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡下行，录得 1.34%日跌幅，量缩仓增。目前来 看，热卷供应维持高位，压力偏大，而需求开始走弱，供强需弱局面下 基本面依然不佳，热卷价格继续承压，相对利好则是压减政策预期，预 期现实博弈下热卷延续低位震荡运行态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.57%日跌幅，量缩仓稳。现阶 段，铁矿石供需格局有所走弱，钢厂生产趋稳，矿石需求高位运行，给 予矿价支撑，但钢价表现不佳，且钢材需求隐忧未退，矿石需求存触顶 担忧，利好效应趋弱。与此同时，海外矿商发运积极，而内矿供应维持 平 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to run strongly, with bullish factors prevailing and showing a slightly stronger - than - expected trend. The contract may maintain a slightly stronger - than - expected trend in Friday night trading [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Condition - For the crude oil 2507 contract, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "oscillating and slightly weak", the intraday view is "oscillating and slightly strong", and the reference view is "running strongly" [1] Driving Logic - OPEC+ oil - producing countries will further accelerate the pace of production increase in June, and US shale oil production is also growing steadily, increasing the expectation of oil market supply surplus. In May, the demand for crude oil in the Northern Hemisphere remains in the off - season mode, and the consumption power will gradually increase in June. The refinery operating rate remains stable, and the pressure of commercial crude oil inventory accumulation is prominent, but the negative impact on the futures price may be limited [5] Price Performance - On Thursday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract showed a slightly stronger - than - expected trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 1.64% to 459.6 yuan per barrel [5]