Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly. Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract and synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract are likely to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend on Tuesday [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Shanghai Rubber (RU)** - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and slightly stronger; Overall view: run strongly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in the September meeting is high, and the Sino - US economic and trade talks have achieved positive results, improving the macro - sentiment. Meanwhile, the supply recovery expectation in the rubber market is increasing as the Southeast Asian production areas are in the peak tapping season and the impact of various factors on supply has been digested. On Monday, the 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures closed up 0.79% to 15,995 yuan/ton [5]. **Synthetic Rubber (BR)** - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and slightly stronger; Overall view: run strongly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in the September meeting is high, and the Sino - US economic and trade talks have achieved positive results, improving the macro - sentiment. Although the domestic auto market production and sales in August were better than expected, the positive factors were overdrawn. On Monday, the 2511 contract of synthetic rubber futures closed up 0.86% to 11,690 yuan/ton [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-09-16 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250715 | 2025/06 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.20 | 5.40 | 4.70 | | 20250831 | 2025/08 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.40 | 49.30 | 49.10 | | 20250831 | 2025/08 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.30 | 50.10 | 50.30 | | 20250915 | 2025/08 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 25668.00 11307.00 | 30323.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250912 | 2025/08 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 11.70 | 11.80 | 12.20 | | 202509 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-09-16 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2511 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险增强，原油震荡偏强 | 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期乌克兰无人机袭击俄罗斯波罗的海重要原油出口枢纽，该港口日均装载约 33 万桶柴 油类燃料和 115 万桶原油。在地缘风险增强的背景下，叠加中美经贸会谈取得积极进展，在宏观情 绪改善的支撑下，本周一夜盘国内外原油期货价格呈现小幅反弹的走势。其中，国内原油期货 2511 合约小幅收涨 1.31%至 494.9 元/桶，预计本周二国内原油期价或维持震荡偏强的走势。 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌 ...

运筹帷幄决胜千里 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 本期值 | 上期值 | 周度变化 | 周度变化 | 上月末值 | 月度变化 | 月度变化 | 同期值 | 同期变化 | 同期变化 | | | | | | | （%） | | | （%） | | | （%） | | 到货量 | 北方六港 | 1,245.00 | 1,320.00 | -75.00 | -5.68% | 1,300.90 | -55.90 | -4.30% | 1,130.70 | 114.30 | 10.11% | | | 全国45港 | 2,362.30 | 2,448.00 | -85.70 | -3.50% | 2,526.00 | -163.70 | -6.48% | 2,155.40 | 206.90 | 9.60% | | | 全国47港 | 2,392.30 | 2,57 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-09-16 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 煤炭价格反弹，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 核心逻辑：目前国内外甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，港口累库显著增加，供需 结构偏弱导致价格重心面临下移。在国内煤炭期货价格大幅上涨以及宏观情绪改善的提振下，本周 一夜盘国内甲醇期货 2601 合约迎来企稳反弹的走势，期价略微收涨 0.80%至 240 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2601 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively, and attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that policy expectations are fermenting, leading to an oscillatory rebound in steel prices [2]. - The rebar futures price oscillated higher due to the enhanced policy expectations from the downward economic data in August and the strong boost from coking coal and coke. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar remained weak. Although the weekly output decreased, the reduction during the peak season was not strong, and inventory continued to increase, with limited relief of supply pressure. Meanwhile, the demand was poor, with high - frequency indicators running at a low level and no improvement in downstream industries, resulting in insufficient peak - season demand. Currently, steel prices rebounded oscillatory due to policy expectations and strong raw materials, but the fundamentals did not improve in the situation of weak supply and demand, and the sustainability of the upward drive needed to be tracked. In the short - term, steel prices maintained an oscillatory and stable state under the dominance of optimistic sentiment, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively. The reference is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the fermentation of policy expectations leading to an oscillatory rebound in steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The economic data in August declined, enhancing policy expectations. Coupled with the strong boost from coking coal and coke, the rebar futures price oscillated higher. The supply - demand pattern of rebar was weak, with limited relief of supply pressure and poor demand, insufficient peak - season demand. Currently, steel prices rebounded oscillatory, but the fundamentals did not improve, and the sustainability of the upward drive needed to be tracked. In the short - term, steel prices were stable and oscillatory, and attention should be paid to the demand [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and overall view of TL2512 is 'oscillation', with an intraday view of 'oscillation on the weak side'. The core logic is that the long - and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is 'oscillation on the weak side', the medium - term view is 'oscillation', and the overall reference view is 'oscillation'. The short - term trend of treasury bond futures is mainly low - level oscillation and consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is 'oscillation', the medium - term view is 'oscillation', the intraday view is 'oscillation on the weak side', and the overall view is 'oscillation'. The core logic is that the long - and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Treasury bond futures continued the oscillatory consolidation trend yesterday. The newly released credit data was weak, increasing the market's expectation of loose policies in the fourth quarter, which is beneficial to treasury bonds [5]. - Treasury bond futures are mainly affected by monetary policy expectations and the risk appetite of the stock market. In the long - term, the expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but in the short - term, the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is not strong due to the low necessity of a comprehensive interest rate cut [5]. - In August, inflation was weak, the credit demand of the real sector was weak, and the consumption growth rate slowed down marginally. The policy side will continue to introduce policies to stabilize demand, and it is expected that monetary and fiscal policies will work together in the fourth quarter [5]. - The risk appetite of the stock market is at a high level, siphoning off bond - purchasing funds and suppressing the demand side of treasury bonds. The year - on - year increase in non - bank deposit data in July and August indicates the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]. - In the short - term, treasury bond futures will mainly be in low - level oscillatory consolidation [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides views on the futures of two agricultural products: soymeal and palm oil. For soymeal, the short - term view is "oscillating weakly", and the medium - term view is "oscillating". For palm oil, both the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", with an "oscillating weakly" intraday view [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Intraday view**: Oscillating weakly - **Medium - term view**: Oscillating - **Reference view**: Oscillating weakly - **Core logic**: The expected high yield of US soybeans is strengthening, and export demand is decreasing, putting short - term pressure on US soybean futures prices. Before the improvement of Sino - US trade, the impact on domestic soybeans is limited, and the divergence between domestic and international soybean futures prices will continue. The domestic market's trading logic has shifted to the weak industrial chain, with continuous accumulation of soymeal inventory pressure and a continuous negative basis pattern, causing short - term weakness in soymeal futures prices [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday view**: Oscillating weakly - **Medium - term view**: Oscillating - **Reference view**: Oscillating weakly - **Core logic**: As the benchmark of the oil market, when other varieties fluctuate around trade topics, the palm oil industrial chain environment has weakened. Pay attention to the impact of weather - related factors. In the short term, market sentiment drives the market, and palm oil futures prices are oscillating weakly [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic thermal coal price remained weakly stable this week. The market bearish sentiment still exists, and the opportunity for the coal price to stop falling and stabilize may lie in the winter storage and replenishment of terminal power plants [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Intraday and Medium - term View**: The reference view for thermal coal spot is to fluctuate. The core logic is that in early September, domestic temperatures gradually dropped, and the daily coal consumption of power plants decreased seasonally. The demand for thermal coal was in line with market expectations, and the demand for non - power industries did not improve significantly, driving the coal price to operate weakly [4]. - **Supply Side**: The impact of the September 3rd parade on coal mine production has basically faded. After entering the new natural month, the production of thermal coal has gradually returned to the level before the parade, and the main producing area coal mines maintain normal production. The impact of "anti - involution" has not been further released [4]. - **Demand Side**: As of the week of September 4th, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 2.455 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 87,000 tons; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.556 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 103,000 tons. The demand for domestic thermal coal has significantly declined compared with the summer peak [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term and intraday view of Iron Ore 2601 is oscillating and bullish, while the medium - term view is oscillating. The market sentiment has warmed up, and with the pre - holiday restocking expectation, bullish factors support the high - level and bullish operation of ore prices. However, the demand resilience is weakening, and the supply is increasing. The fundamentals are difficult to continuously improve, and the upward driving force of high - valued ore prices is questionable. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and the performance of steel should be monitored [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term view is oscillating and bullish, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating and bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that bullish factors are fermenting, leading to the bullish operation of ore prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has warmed up, and the night - session ore price has risen again. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to run smoothly. The terminal consumption of ore has increased, and with the approaching holiday restocking, the demand is good, providing strong support for ore prices. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports continues to decline, but the shipment of overseas miners has increased significantly on a month - on - month basis, reaching a new high for the single week of the year. According to the shipping schedule, the arrival of Australian and Brazilian ore will increase, and the supply of domestic ore has recovered, so the ore supply will increase. - Overall, although bullish factors support the high - level and bullish operation of ore prices, the demand resilience is weakening, and the supply is rising. The fundamentals are difficult to continuously improve, and the upward driving force of high - valued ore prices is questionable. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and the performance of steel should be monitored [3].