Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and overall reference viewpoints for TL2512 are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the long - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". In the short term, bond futures will mainly experience low - level oscillation and consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and overall reference viewpoints are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that although there is still a long - term expectation of interest rate cuts, the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, bond futures oscillated and sorted, with a slight rebound throughout the day. The newly released credit data was weak, and the marginal consumption growth rate declined, leading to an increase in the market's expectation of loose policies in the fourth quarter, and the long - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists [5]. - Currently, bond futures are mainly affected by monetary policy expectations and the risk appetite of the stock market. Since the necessity of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is not high, the upward space for bond futures is limited [5]. - The risk appetite of the stock market is at a high level, and the capital side suppresses the demand for bonds. The year - on - year increase in non - bank deposit data from July to August indicates the "stock - bond seesaw" effect [5]. - In general, bond futures will mainly experience low - level oscillation and consolidation in the short term [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price of rebar 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, medium - term, and show a weak - side fluctuation intraday. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, and the steel price will fluctuate [2]. - Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and industrial contradictions continue to accumulate. The steel price is still under pressure. With the positive factors of cost increase and production limitation disturbances, the steel price is expected to continue the fluctuating trend, and the demand performance should be monitored [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term trend is "fluctuation", and the intraday trend is "weak - side fluctuation". The reference suggestion is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the game between expectations and reality and the steel price's fluctuating operation [2]. Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of rebar are weakly stable. Although the production has decreased, it's hard to sustain during the peak season, and inventory is increasing, so the supply pressure relief is limited. Demand remains weak, high - frequency indicators are at a low level, and the downstream industry has not improved, with limited marginal improvement in demand. With the game of long and short factors, the steel price is expected to continue fluctuating, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall view of the stock index futures is wide - range oscillation in the short - term, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly and a medium - term view of rising [1][5] - The core logic is the game between the short - term profit - taking intention of funds and the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy positive expectations [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between short - term profit - taking intention of funds and the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy positive expectations [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties are IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is rising, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation [5] - The core logic is that the stock indexes oscillated and consolidated yesterday. The full - day turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 236.7 billion yuan, an increase of 6.39 billion yuan from the previous day. The credit data in August was weak, the consumption growth slowed down, and the inflation data was still weak, indicating weak demand in the real sector. There is a strong expectation of policies to stabilize demand, with the key window period for policy introduction expected to be in October. In terms of funds, incremental funds continue to flow into the stock market, as shown by the large increase in non - bank deposits in July and August and the high - level operation of margin trading balances. However, due to the significant increase in the valuation of some stocks, there is still an intention for profit - taking, leading to short - term technical adjustment pressure on the stock index. The subsequent focus is on the game between the profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold and copper are expected to have a short - term and medium - term upward trend, with an intraday view of being oscillatingly strong and a short - term bullish outlook [1] - Gold is likely to maintain a strong performance due to the approaching US interest rate cuts and the breakthrough of the oscillation range [1][3] - Copper is expected to run strongly, driven by macro - level factors such as the weakening US dollar and industry - level factors like pre - National Day stocking demand [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Last night, the gold price rose first and then fell. London gold once reached $3700, and Shanghai gold touched 845 yuan. Since the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, the gold price has been on an upward trend, breaking through the high of the oscillation range since the second quarter of this year [3] - **Core Logic**: The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and another 25 basis points in each of the remaining two meetings this year. The US dollar index is running weakly, breaking below the 97 mark last night [3] - **Outlook**: The gold price is expected to maintain a strong performance. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the $3700 mark of London gold [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: The copper price rose first and then fell yesterday, and maintained an oscillating operation at night [5] - **Core Logic (Macro)**: The Fed's September interest - rate meeting has started, and the US dollar is weak, breaking below the 97 mark last night, which is beneficial to the copper price from a financial perspective. There is a new "anti - involution" market in China, resulting in a resonance of internal and external macro - level positives [5] - **Core Logic (Industry)**: Currently, it is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. Entering the peak season, the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly on Monday, but the pre - National Day stocking demand may support the copper price [5] - **Outlook**: The copper price is expected to maintain a strong performance. Technically, LME copper faces strong resistance at the previous high in March, corresponding to strong resistance for Shanghai copper at 81,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the resistance level [5]

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 9 月 17 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：市场关注四季度到港情况，在中美贸易尚未转向之前，国内豆类市场交易逻辑转向更具确定性 的疲弱的基本面，油厂开工率高位，豆粕库存压力持续累积，豆粕负基差格局持续，短期豆类期价仍将偏 弱运行。 品种：棕榈油(P) 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2601 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 供需格局迎变化，矿价上行趋弱 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端迎来变化，钢厂复产带来矿石终端消耗回升，且假期补库预期发酵，需求表现尚 可，继续给予矿价支撑，但下游矛盾未缓解，需求韧性趋弱。与此同时，国内港口到货虽回落，但海 外矿商发运环比大增且创下年内单周新高，海外矿石供应回升显著，按船期推算后续澳巴矿到货将触 底回升，叠加内矿供应恢复，矿石供应在增加。目前来看，得 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On September 16, the coke main contract closed at 1,735 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 4.24%. The spot price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke decreased by 3.29% week - on - week, while that of Qingdao Port increased by 2.88% week - on - week. Against the backdrop of domestic "anti - involution" rectification, coke futures are prone to rise and difficult to fall, and the main contract is running strongly. Attention should be paid to whether there are specific measures for anti - involution in the coal industry [5][35]. - On September 16, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,240.5 points, with an intraday increase of 5.84%. The spot price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port remained flat week - on - week. The market's anti - involution sentiment is rising again, and there are continuous positive disturbances to coking coal supply. However, there are currently no specific policy measures in the coal industry, and attention should be paid to subsequent policies [6][36]. Summary by Directory Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to rectify the disorderly competition among enterprises, including strengthening capacity governance in key industries, improving the price governance mechanism, and strengthening industry self - discipline [8]. - On September 16, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market was strong. Affected by market sentiment and price increases of similar coal types in the surrounding area, the quotation of low - sulfur primary coking coal from some local coal enterprises increased by 80 - 90 yuan/ton, but there were no transactions yet [9]. Spot Market - Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke had a latest quoted price of 1,470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.29%. Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke had an ex - warehouse price of 1,430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.88%. The price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,140 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week [5][6][13]. Futures Market - The coke main contract closed at 1,735 yuan/ton on September 16, with an intraday increase of 4.24%, a trading volume of 33,386, a volume difference of - 4,644, a position of 47,068, and a position difference of - 407 [14]. - The coking coal main contract closed at 1,240.5 points on September 16, with an intraday increase of 5.84%, a trading volume of 1,466,367, a volume difference of 224,082, a position of 763,605, and a position difference of 33,564 [14]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port total inventory, and total inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine - mouth, port, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants), and other charts such as domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement, coal washery production, and coking plant operation [15][22][27]. Market Outlook - The outlook for coke and coking coal is similar to the core viewpoints. In the context of "anti - involution" rectification, coke and coking coal futures are prone to rise and difficult to fall, but attention should be paid to the introduction of specific policies in the coal industry [35][36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, all stock indices maintained a volatile consolidation trend. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets throughout the day was 2.367 trillion yuan, an increase of 63.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [4]. - The credit data in August showed weakness, the consumption growth rate slowed down, and the inflation data remained weak, indicating weak demand from the real - sector. There is a strong expectation for the introduction of policies to stabilize demand in the future, and the critical window period for policy introduction is expected to be in October [4]. - In terms of capital, incremental funds have been continuously flowing into the stock market. The non - bank deposits increased significantly in July and August, and the margin trading balance remained at a high level, indicating that the stock market has continuously attracted incremental funds. However, due to the significant increase in the valuations of some stocks in the early stage, there is still a willingness among profit - taking funds to take profits, which also leads to short - term technical adjustment pressure on the stock indices. In the future, focus on the game between the profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations [4]. - In general, the stock indices are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term. Currently, the implied volatility of options is in the normal range. Considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indices, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On September 16, 2025, the 50ETF fell 0.48% to close at 3.082; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.19% to close at 4.620; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.23% to close at 4.765; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.21% to close at 4523.34; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.92% to close at 7483.63; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.77% to close at 7.282; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.73% to close at 2.907; the GEM ETF rose 0.72% to close at 3.059; the Shenzhen 100ETF remained unchanged at 3.450; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.50% to close at 2947.82; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.21% to close at 1.43; the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 1.23% to close at 1.39 [7]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on September 16, 2025, and their changes compared to the previous trading day are provided, including those of 50ETF options, 300ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), CSI 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, 500ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), GEM ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 Index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [8]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options in September or October 2025 are provided, including those of 50ETF options, 300ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), CSI 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, 500ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), GEM ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 Index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [9][10]. 3.2 Related Charts - For each type of option (such as 50ETF options, 300ETF options, etc.), relevant charts are provided, including the underlying asset's trend chart, option volatility chart, trading volume PCR chart, position PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and at - the - money implied volatility chart for different terms [11][22][35][38][51][66][79][93][106][119][134][141].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The treasury bond futures are expected to maintain a volatile consolidation. Today, they fluctuated and slightly rebounded. The recently released credit data was weak, and the marginal growth rate of consumption slowed down, leading to an increased market expectation of loose policies in the fourth quarter. There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts in the medium and long term. However, currently, the treasury bond futures are mainly affected by the expectation of monetary policy and the risk appetite of the stock market. Since there is no high necessity for a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term, the upward space for treasury bond futures is limited. Additionally, the risk appetite in the stock market is at a high level, and the capital side suppresses the demand for treasury bonds. The year-on-year increase in non-bank deposit data in July and August indicates the manifestation of the stock-bond seesaw effect. Overall, the treasury bond futures will mainly experience low-level volatile consolidation in the short term. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry News and Related Charts - On September 16th, the People's Bank of China conducted 287 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate through quantity tendering, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, which was the same as before. There were 247 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day. Based on this calculation, the net investment for the day was 40 billion yuan. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties of Baocheng Futures on September 16, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][21][27][39][50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The report shows the basis and spread data of power coal from September 9 to September 15, 2025. The basis on September 15 was - 115.4 yuan/ton, while the spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - Data on the basis, ratio, and other indicators of energy commodities such as fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from September 9 to September 15, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on September 15 was 99.61 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1408 [7]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - The basis, spread, and cross - variety spread data of chemical commodities such as rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP are provided. For instance, the basis of rubber on September 15 was - 995 yuan/ton, and the LLDPE - PVC spread on September 15 was 2304 yuan/ton [9][10]. 3.3 Black Metals - Cross - period and cross - variety spread data of black metals including rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given. For example, the 5 - 1 cross - period spread of rebar was 65.0 yuan/ton, and the screw/ore ratio on September 15 was 3.92 [20]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 9 to September 15, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of copper on September 15 was 10 yuan/ton [28]. 3.4.2 London Market - Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of LME non - ferrous metals on September 15, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was (61.93), and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.02 [34]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - The basis, cross - period, and cross - variety spread data of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, and rapeseed meal are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans on September 15 was 121 yuan/ton, and the soybean/corn ratio on September 15 was 1.81 [39]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - The basis and cross - period spread data of stock index futures including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 9 to September 15, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on September 15 was 5.26, and the next - month - to - current - month spread was - 9.2 [51].