期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 16 日） 品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：近期豆类市场延续近强远弱格局，豆粕近月 2601 合约驱动来自现货支撑，日照邦基报价 持稳 3060 元/吨，华东基差仍处-150 元高位，国储拍卖溢价成交加剧近月缺货焦虑；远月 2605 增仓 后陷入震荡，美豆成本坍塌，南美大豆到岸成本下降，国内宽松预期强化。后市关注政策调控强度， 若大豆抛储溢价持续，近月仓单问题或延至交割月；基差回归路径，当前 01 合约升水现货 380 元， 短期豆粕期价震荡偏弱，近强远弱难逆转。 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to continue its wide - range oscillatory trend, with prices under pressure due to the weakening supply - demand pattern, but supported by unresolved structural contradictions in the spot market [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory, with an overall view of wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has not improved, putting pressure on the ore price [1] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken. Terminal consumption of ore is declining, and the weak demand situation is difficult to change due to the poor profitability of steel mills. Meanwhile, port arrivals in China have rebounded significantly, and miners' shipments have reached a new weekly high this year, resulting in a high overall supply. The market fundamentals remain weak, but the unresolved structural contradictions in the spot market support the ore price. The ore price is expected to continue oscillating, and the performance of steel products should be monitored [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term outlook for Treasury bond futures is to fluctuate and consolidate, with risks and support factors both present. The medium - term view is that the monetary environment is moderately loose, and Treasury bond futures are expected to be well - supported [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuating", the medium - term view is "fluctuating", the intraday view is "weakening", and the overall view is "fluctuating and consolidating". The core logic is that the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, while the medium - and long - term easing expectation remains [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and pulled back. The medium - and long - term monetary environment is moderately loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. In the short term, the macro - economic data shows strong resilience, so the urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is not high, and the short - term expectation of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low, limiting the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. Long - term bonds are restricted by the pressure of intensive supply in the first quarter of next year and the continuous improvement of the long - term economic growth outlook, performing relatively weakly. Overall, Treasury bond futures are under pressure and support, and will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the IH2603 variety, short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, while the intraday trend is expected to be on the stronger side, with an overall view of volatile and bullish due to the continuous fermentation of policy - positive expectations [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM varieties, the intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, and the overall reference view is volatile and bullish. The current macro - economic data shows strong resilience, and the follow - up policy will continue to increase efforts in expanding domestic demand. With the continuous fermentation of policy - positive expectations, the stock market's risk appetite will rise again, and the stock index will be mainly volatile and bullish in the short term [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2603 variety, the short - term trend is volatile, the medium - term trend is volatile, the intraday trend is on the stronger side, with a view of volatile and bullish, and the core logic is the continuous fermentation of policy - positive expectations [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile and bullish. Yesterday, each stock index fluctuated and consolidated. The total stock market turnover was 1.79 trillion yuan, a decrease of 324.6 billion yuan from the previous day. The current macro - economic data shows strong resilience, but the marginal slowdown of investment and consumption growth rates is still worthy of attention. The follow - up policy will continue to increase efforts in expanding domestic demand, and the expectation of macro - policy benefits is strong, which strongly supports the stock index. With the continuous fermentation of policy - positive expectations and the satisfaction of the technical demand for the stock index to fluctuate and consolidate, the stock market's risk appetite will rise again. In general, the stock index will be mainly volatile and bullish in the short term [5].

Report Overview - Report Title: Futures Research Report - Non-ferrous Metals [1][2] - Date: December 15, 2025 [5] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided. Core Views Copper - Friday night, due to weak overseas macro - atmosphere, copper prices dropped sharply by over 3000 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased significantly. Today, copper prices stabilized and rebounded to the 92,500 yuan mark. As copper prices fell, the spot premium rose, indicating strong restocking willingness among downstream industries. Short - term copper price trends are dominated by the macro - atmosphere, and continuous attention should be paid to macro changes. Technically, copper stabilized and rebounded above the 10 - day moving average and stood above the 5 - day moving average, and the support of the 5 - day moving average can be continuously monitored [7]. Aluminum - Friday night, due to weak overseas macro - atmosphere, aluminum prices dropped to the 21,600 yuan mark, and the trading volume decreased significantly. Today, aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded to the 21,900 yuan mark, but the trading volume continued to decline, showing strong short - term profit - taking willingness among funds. Short - term aluminum price trends are dominated by the macro - atmosphere, and continuous attention should be paid to macro changes. Technically, the pressure at the 22,000 yuan mark should be monitored [8]. Nickel - Friday night, nickel prices rose and then fell. Today, nickel prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the trading volume continued to increase. Macroscopically, the non - ferrous metals sector rebounded after reaching the bottom, but nickel prices showed little reaction. Industrially, the high inventory of port nickel ore decreased slowly, and the increase in the inventory of electrolytic nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange put pressure on futures prices. In the short term, the multi - empty game in the non - ferrous metals sector has intensified, and nickel is under pressure with increased positions, and is expected to maintain a weak operation [9]. Industry Dynamics Copper - As of December 15, 2025, the average price of SMM flat - copper premium was about 54 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM1 electrolytic copper premium was about 82 yuan/ton, up 94 yuan/ton and 110 yuan/ton respectively compared with the annual average in 2024. The 2026 long - term order price of domestic trade electrolytic copper in East China increased by over 50 yuan/ton compared with 2025 [11]. Aluminum - On December 15, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 577,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons compared with last Monday [12]. Nickel - On December 15, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 114,500 - 120,200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 117,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 850 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 5,100 - 5,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 5,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was in the range of - 100 - 400 yuan/ton [13]. Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [14][15][16]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum rod inventory [26][28][30]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [49][38][50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On Monday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The price center of the contract during the session slightly moved down to around 15,200 yuan/ton, and the closing price slightly decreased by 0.20% to 15,200 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread widened to 25 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices remain volatile within a range [6]. - On Monday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing volume and increasing open interest, fluctuating stably, and slightly rebounding. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,138 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,084 yuan/ton, and the closing price slightly increased by 1.14% to 2,124 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread widened to 50 yuan/ton. Driven by a slight rebound in domestic coal futures prices, methanol futures started to fluctuate and stabilize [7]. - On Monday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2602 showed a trend of decreasing volume and increasing open interest, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 438.5 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 435.0 yuan/barrel, and the closing price slightly decreased by 0.27% to 437.3 yuan/barrel. The expectation of oversupply once again dominated the market. Saudi Arabia lowered its selling prices in Asia, and a bearish atmosphere prevailed, causing crude oil futures to operate weakly [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Rubber - As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 488,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,200 tons or 1.49%. The bonded area inventory was 73,900 tons, with a growth rate of 2.08%; the general trade inventory was 414,800 tons, with a growth rate of 1.38%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouses for natural rubber samples in Qingdao increased by 0.79 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.60 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.72 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.02 percentage points [9]. - In the week of December 5, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a week - on - week increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises recovered this week, but the overall sales pressure remained, and the increase in capacity utilization rate was limited. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will still have an upward trend in the next cycle, but the increase will be restricted [10]. - In November 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 55.6%, a year - on - year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.0 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. In November, the logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points [10]. - In November 2025, about 100,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. As of now, the heavy - duty truck market has achieved eight consecutive months of growth, with an average growth rate of up to 42%. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - duty truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [11]. 3.1.2 Methanol - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 84.01%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.24%, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.13%, and a small increase of 3.53% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0236 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 55,500 tons, and a significant increase of 178,400 tons compared with 1.8452 million tons in the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.24%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.04%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 5.31%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.01%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 72.95%, a week - on - week increase of 6.42%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.91%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.76%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.09 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 1.42% [12]. - As of December 5, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 67 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 195 yuan/ton [12]. - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.1675 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 76,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 115,400 tons, and a significant increase of 165,700 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 4, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 361,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,000 tons, and a slight decrease of 13,900 tons compared with 375,400 tons in the same period last year [13]. 3.1.3 Crude Oil - As of the week of December 5, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 413, a week - on - week increase of 6 and a decrease of 69 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.853 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 38,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 222,000 barrels per day, reaching a historical high [13]. - As of the week of December 5, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 425.7 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 1.812 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 3.741 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 21.604 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 308,000 barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 411.9 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 248,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 94.5%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.4 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 5.1 percentage points, and a small year - on - year increase of 2.1 percentage points [14]. - As of November 18, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 69,176 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 8,792 contracts and a significant increase of 9,001 contracts or 14.96% compared with the average in October. As of December 9, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 113,859 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 32,588 contracts and a significant decrease of 41,329 contracts or 26.63% compared with the average in November [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price (yuan/unit) | Change from Previous Day (yuan/unit) | Futures Main Contract Price (yuan/unit) | Change from Previous Day (yuan/unit) | Basis (yuan/unit) | Change (yuan/unit) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,950 | + 100 | 15,200 | - 30 | - 250 | + 30 | | Methanol | 2,107 | + 0 | 2,124 | + 25 | - 17 | - 25 | | Crude Oil | 405.8 | + 0.1 | 437.3 | - 0.3 | - 31.2 | + 0.4 | [15] 3.3 Relevant Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][18][20][24][26][28]. - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][31][33][35][37][39]. - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [41][43][45][47][49][51].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2025 年第 50 周） 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 2928.10 万吨，环比增 358.90 万吨，大幅回升并至年内高位；增量主要是澳 矿，环比增 289.80 万吨，低位迎来回升；而巴西矿到货增 108.70 万吨，非主流矿环比降 39.60 万吨。 2、海外矿石发运持续回升，全球矿石发运总量为 3592.50 万吨，环比增 223.94 万吨，创下年内单周 新高。增量主要源于巴西矿发运回升，环比增 225.02 万吨；澳矿发运增 85.16 万吨，维持年内高位；非澳 巴矿环比降 86.24 万吨，高位有所回落。 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量迎来回升，海外矿石供应表现积极。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 网址：www.bcqhgs.com 1 地址：杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 期货研究报告 2、全球铁矿石发运量 3、四大矿商发运量 网址：www.bcqhgs.com 2 地址：杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar rebounded from the bottom, with a daily increase of 0.13%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. Currently, the low - supply pattern supports steel prices, but demand is weak, and the fundamentals have not improved substantially. Steel prices in the off - season are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and policy expectations. Steel prices are expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom under the game between expectations and reality. Attention should be paid to changes in steel mill production [5][38]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated, with a daily decline of 0.15%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have weakened, the industrial contradiction has not been alleviated, and the inventory reduction pressure is relatively large, so the price of hot - rolled coils continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. Under the weak reality pattern, hot - rolled coils will continue the weakly oscillating operation trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [5][38]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price of iron ore oscillated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.92%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. Currently, iron ore demand continues to weaken, while supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, and iron ore prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factor is that the structural contradiction in the spot market remains unresolved. It is expected that iron ore prices will continue the high - level oscillating operation trend. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5][39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **National Economic Situation in November**: The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide increased by 4.8% year - on - year and 0.44% month - on - month. The added value of the mining industry increased by 6.3% year - on - year, the manufacturing industry increased by 4.6%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 4.3%. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.7% year - on - year, and the high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 8.4%. The manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the business production and operation activity expectation index was 53.1%, up 0.3 percentage points. From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide was 5950.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [7]. - **Real Estate Development Investment from January to November**: The national real estate development investment was 7859.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The investment in residential buildings was 6043.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The new construction area was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%, and the completed area was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0% [8]. - **Australia's Anti - dumping Review of Chinese Rebar**: Australia's Anti - Dumping Commission postponed the release of the basic facts report and final - ruling suggestions on the anti - dumping review of steel reinforcing bars imported from Baowu Group Echeng Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. It is expected to complete the basic facts report by December 23, 2025, and submit the final - ruling report to the Australian Minister of Industry and Science by February 16, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai was 3240 yuan, in Tianjin was 3150 yuan, and the national average price was 3289 yuan. The spot price of hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai was 3250 yuan, in Tianjin was 3170 yuan, and the national average price was 3285 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet (Q235) was 2940 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2080 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 10 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1160 yuan [10]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of PB fines at Shandong ports was 772 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 773 yuan, the Australian freight was 10.11 yuan, the Brazilian freight was 22.03 yuan, the SGX swap (current month) was 106.05, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 105.20 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active contract was 3074 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The highest price was 3086 yuan, the lowest price was 3031 yuan, the trading volume was 1,232,643 lots (an increase of 258,307 lots), and the open interest was 1,627,666 lots (an increase of 20,609 lots) [14]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The closing price of the active contract was 3233 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.15%. The highest price was 3247 yuan, the lowest price was 3194 yuan, the trading volume was 706,855 lots (an increase of 218,669 lots), and the open interest was 1,224,554 lots (an increase of 34,067 lots) [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the active contract was 753.0 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.92%. The highest price was 760.5 yuan, the lowest price was 748.0 yuan, the trading volume was 367,137 lots (an increase of 123,572 lots), and the open interest was 469,396 lots (an increase of 3,908 lots) [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil, including the inventory of steel mills and social inventory [17][19]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports in China, the inventory of 247 steel mills, and the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate [22][27]. - **Steel Mill Production**: There are charts showing the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss of 75 building materials independent electric arc - furnace steel mills [36][32]. 3.5后市研判 (Translated as Future Outlook) - **Rebar**: Supply and demand continue to weaken. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 10.53 tons, and demand decreased by 13.89 tons. Low - supply supports steel prices, but weak demand still exerts pressure. With low valuation and policy expectations, steel prices will continue to oscillate to find the bottom. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [38]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The supply - demand pattern remains weak. The weekly output decreased by 5.60 tons, and demand is weak. Although the output of cold - rolled products in the main downstream is rising, there are concerns about external demand due to policy disturbances. With high inventory and low valuation, hot - rolled coils will continue the weakly oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [38]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern changes little. Ore demand is weak, and supply is at a high level. Although there is a structural contradiction in the spot market, iron ore prices will continue the high - level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [39].

电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 15 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂走强 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 101060 元/吨，较前日 上涨 3340 元/吨（+3.42%），近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 95170 元/吨，较前日上涨 0.61%， 近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为-4170 点，负基差（现货贴水），较前日 走强 900 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走弱。 【仓单情况】碳酸锂 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall performance of China's economy in 2025 shows a complex situation, with some indicators improving and others facing challenges. The government is expected to introduce more incremental policies in 2026 to boost consumption, promote investment, and address key risks. The bond market remains in a volatile and weak pattern, while the stock market is expected to see more balanced opportunities with technology stocks continuing as the main theme [17][22][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter. The manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%. Social financing scale, M2, M1, and other financial indicators showed certain trends, with social financing scale increment in the first 11 months exceeding last year's full - year figure [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's November financial data showed that RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan in the first 11 months, and the cumulative social financing scale increment was 33.39 trillion yuan. The authorities issued a notice to boost consumption through financial support [2]. 3.2.2 Metals - Global physical gold ETFs had continuous inflows in November, with the total asset management scale and total holdings reaching new highs. The copper price was approaching $12,000 per ton, with a cumulative increase of over 30% this year. The zinc, copper, and other metal inventories showed different trends [5][6][7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The prices of coke and coking coal decreased in early December. The 2026 Shanxi Coal Trading Conference was held, and some steel products will be under export license management from January 1, 2026 [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - China's oil and gas industry is moving towards a new stage of development, with the expected natural gas production to reach 300 billion cubic meters by 2030. The shale oil exploration and development work was promoted, and the number of US oil drilling platforms increased [11][12]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The prices of some agricultural products such as soybean meal and corn increased, while the price of peanuts decreased. The total grain output of Beidahuang Group achieved "22 consecutive years of harvest" [14][15]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - The central bank conducted 1205 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 12, with a net withdrawal of 193 billion yuan. This week, there are large - scale reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank will conduct 6000 billion yuan of 6 - month - term repurchase operations on December 15 [16]. 3.3.2 Key News - Multiple departments held meetings to implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing policies such as promoting consumption, stabilizing investment, and preventing financial risks. The issuance scale of public funds and bonds in the market showed certain trends [17][25]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market turned cold, with bond yields rising and bond futures prices falling. The money market interest rates showed different trends, and the yields of European and US bonds also changed [28][32]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index also showed a slight increase. Non - US currencies had different trends [33]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Different institutions analyzed the November financial data and the Central Economic Work Conference, providing investment suggestions for the bond market, such as holding short - term credit bonds and medium - term interest - rate bonds [34]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - Last week, the A - share market was volatile, with the technology growth sector performing well. The scale of ETFs linked to the CSI A500 index continued to expand. Multiple public funds are currently being issued, and the market is at the time of cross - year layout, with more balanced investment opportunities expected in 2026 [39][40].