投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 9 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 反内卷预期支撑，焦煤强势运行 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 强预期驱动，焦炭重回强势 | 备注： （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：9 月 15 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约强势上 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly [1][5]. - The core logic is the game between the short - term profit - taking intention of funds and the long - and medium - term policy positive expectation fermentation [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | Oscillation | Rise | Oscillating strongly | Wide - range oscillation | Short - term profit - taking intention of funds VS long - and medium - term policy positive expectation fermentation [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation [5]. - **Core Logic**: Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and sorted in a narrow range. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 230.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.52 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The newly released credit data is weak, reflecting the weak financing demand of the real sector. Coupled with the weak inflation data in August and the marginal slowdown of the consumption growth rate, the expectation of introducing policies to stabilize demand in the future is strong, and the policy positive expectation will gradually ferment in the fourth quarter. In terms of funds, the year - on - year increase in non - bank deposits in July and August indicates that the asset allocation direction of social wealth has begun to change, and the stock market attracts incremental funds to flow in; the margin balance also remains high, indicating that leveraged funds are still net buyers. The policy positive expectation and the trend of continuous capital inflow into the stock market still support the stock index in the long and medium term. However, due to the significant increase in the valuation of some stocks in the early stage, there is still the intention of profit - taking by profitable funds, which also leads to short - term technical adjustment pressure. The game between the profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations should be focused on [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 9 月 16 日） 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 短线看强 | 美降息临近，金价突破震荡区间， | | | | | | 偏强 | | 上行动能较强 | | 铜 | 2510 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 短线看强 | 美降息临近，产业旺季临近，资金 | | | | | | 偏强 | | 关注度上升，铜价增仓上行 | 日内观点 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 作者声明 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 原油：本周一国内原油期货 2511 合约呈现放量减仓，企稳反弹， 小幅收涨的走势，期价最高涨至 491.3 元/桶，最低下跌至 484.7 元/ 桶，收盘时期价小幅收涨 1.83%至 489.3 元/桶。OPEC+产油国最新月 报显示 8 月份 OPEC+原油产量平均为 4240 万桶/日，环比 7 月小幅增 加 50.9 万桶/日，石油输出国正在实现顶格增产。不过随着俄乌冲突 开始扩大化，波兰可能被卷入战争，地缘风险增强盖过产油国供应增 大利空。预计后市国内原油期货 2511 合约或维持震荡企稳的走势。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 9 月 15 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏多情绪回暖 能化震荡反弹 核心观点 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周一国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现缩量增仓，震荡反弹， 小幅收涨的走势，盘中期价重心小幅上移至 15995 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价小幅收涨 1. ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 15 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 反内卷预期支撑，煤焦再次走强 核心观点 焦炭：截至 9 月 12 日当周，独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂合计焦炭日均产量 113.36 万吨，周环比增加 3.32 万吨/天。受焦炭提降落地影响，最新一 期吨焦盈利环比回落 29 元/吨，至 35 元/吨。需求端，全国 247 家钢厂铁 水日均产量 240.55 万吨，环比增加 11.71 万吨/天，恢复至阅兵前的生产 水平。库存方面，本周内统计口径焦炭总库存小幅增加，录得 906.24 万 吨，库存主要在钢厂环节累积。整体来看，焦炭供需格局并无明显好转， 近期反内卷扰动再现，强预期驱动焦炭期货上行，关注后续煤炭行业反内 卷有无具体措施出台。 焦煤：据钢联统计，截至 9 月 12 日当周，全国 5 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 15 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜震荡整理 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价早盘探底回升，日内震荡上行，整体持仓量小幅上升， 主力期价尾盘再度触及 8.1 万关口。宏观层面，海外降息预期持续升 温，叠加 9 月议席会议临近，利好铜价。产业层面，周一库存小幅上 升，利空期价。技术上，关注 8.1 万关口多空博弈。 沪铝 今日铝价早盘探底回升，日内震荡运行，持仓量变化不大。宏观 层面，海外降息预期持续升温，叠加 9 月议席会议临近，利好铝价。 产业层面，周一社库小幅上升，利空期价。 ...

产业矛盾各异，钢矿强弱分化 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡走高，录得 0.93%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 供需双弱局面下螺纹钢基本面未见改善，产业矛盾累积，钢价继续承 压，相对利好则是成本抬升与旺季预期，预计钢价延续震荡寻底运行态 势，关注需求表现情况。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 15 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 热轧卷板：主力期价偏强震荡，录得 0.87%日涨幅，量缩仓增。目前来 看，热卷供应重回高位，而需求表现强劲，基本面表现平稳，支撑价格 相对偏强运行，但需求改善力度有待跟踪，高供应下一旦需求走弱则产 业矛盾仍易累积，届时价格再度承压下行，重点关注需求变化情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.31%日跌幅，量增仓缩。现阶 段，铁矿石需求表现尚可，支撑矿价高位运行，但钢市矛盾在累积，且 供应回升预期未退，矿市基本面并未实质性改善，高估值矿价上行预期 趋弱，后续走势谨慎乐观，关注钢材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z001 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Today, treasury bond futures continued to trade in a sideways consolidation pattern. The latest credit data was weak, increasing market expectations for easing policies in Q4, which is positive for treasury bonds. Currently, treasury bond futures are mainly influenced by monetary policy expectations and the risk appetite of the stock market. In the medium to long term, there are still expectations of interest rate cuts, but in the short term, the need for a comprehensive interest rate cut is not high, resulting in limited upward momentum for treasury bond futures. In August, inflation was weak, credit demand from the real - sector was low, and the growth rate of consumption slowed marginally. Subsequently, the policy side will continue to introduce policies to stabilize demand. It is expected that monetary and fiscal policies will work together in Q4. On the other hand, the risk appetite of the stock market is at a high level, diverting funds from bond purchases and suppressing the demand side of treasury bonds. The year - on - year increase in non - bank deposit data in July and August indicates the stock - bond seesaw effect. Overall, treasury bond futures will mainly trade in a low - level sideways consolidation pattern in the short term [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News and Related Charts - To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month term outright reverse repurchase operation on September 15. This is the second such operation this month after a 1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month term outright reverse repurchase operation on September 5. In total, the outright reverse repurchase operations in September amount to 1.6 trillion yuan, with a maturity amount of 1.3 trillion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 300 billion yuan this month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increased roll - overs. - The People's Bank of China announced on September 15 that it conducted a 280 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. There were 191.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the open market today, resulting in a net injection of 88.5 billion yuan. - From January to August, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 32.6111 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.9668 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, with the growth rate dropping 0.3 percentage points from July. After deducting price factors, the actual growth was 4.1%, and the actual growth rate accelerated by 0.2 percentage points. On a month - on - month basis, the total retail sales of consumer goods in August increased by 0.17%, with a faster month - on - month growth rate than in June and July [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2511 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-09-15 品种晨会纪要 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：本周美联储迎来 9 月议息会议，降息 25 个基点的概 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil market is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile, and the intraday trend being volatile and bullish. The main reasons are the enhanced geopolitical risks and the small rebound in domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on the night of last Friday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract closed down 1.59% to 486.8 yuan/barrel, and it is expected that the domestic crude oil futures price will maintain a volatile and bullish trend on Monday [5]. 3.2 Market Fundamentals - In August, the average OPEC+ crude oil production was 4.24 billion barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 509,000 barrels per day. Since the production increase started in April, OPEC+ has cumulatively increased production by 1.48 million barrels per day, with the largest increase coming from Saudi Arabia and other core Middle Eastern oil - producing countries [5]. 3.3 Geopolitical Factors - A recent drone attack by Ukraine on an important crude oil export hub in Russia's Baltic Sea, which loads about 330,000 barrels of diesel - type fuel and 1.15 million barrels of crude oil per day, has enhanced geopolitical risks and led to a small rebound in crude oil prices [5].