Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to be weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. - For financial futures index stock sectors including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy in the long - term, which supports bond futures, but in the short - term, due to the strong resilience of macro - economic data and policy focus on structural easing, the expectation of a full - scale interest rate cut is low, so bond futures will oscillate in the short - term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The reason is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there is still a long - term easing expectation [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For varieties like TL, T, TF, and TS, last Friday, bond futures oscillated and pulled back. The central economic work conference proposes to continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and the long - term monetary environment is loose, which supports bond futures. However, in the short - term, macro - economic data is resilient, the urgency of a full - scale interest rate cut is low, and the policy focuses on structural easing, so the upward momentum of bond futures is limited. Overall, bond futures are under pressure and support, and will oscillate in the short - term [5].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空博弈，焦煤低位运行 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 基本面驱动不足，焦炭偏弱震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：截至 12 月 12 日当周，供 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report [1][5] 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures (SC2602) will run weakly in the short - term, with a weak intraday trend and a volatile trend in the medium - term, mainly due to the prevailing bearish sentiment [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Trend Outlook - The short - term trend of crude oil 2602 is volatile, the medium - term is also volatile, and the intraday trend is weak, with a reference view of running weakly [1] - The domestic crude oil futures are expected to maintain a weak pattern on Monday [5] Core Logic - There are signs of compromise in Ukraine, the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to cool down, and the US is mediating to end the war. The geopolitical premium is weakening, which weakens the upward momentum of international oil prices [5] - Saudi Arabia has lowered the price of its main crude oil varieties for Asia to the lowest level in five years, and global crude oil inventories are continuously accumulating, indicating increasing supply pressure in the crude oil market [5] - The weakening of the crude oil market's monthly spread and refined oil cracking spread shows a weak supply - demand structure in the oil market [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price of rebar 2605 is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with an intraday tendency of weak fluctuation. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality [1]. - The rebar market shows low supply, which supports the steel price, but demand is weak, and the fundamentals have no substantial improvement. In the off - season, the steel price is still prone to pressure. With relatively favorable factors such as low valuation and policy expectations, the steel price will continue to fluctuate and seek the bottom, and attention should be paid to the changes in steel mill production [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2605 are "fluctuation", "fluctuation", and "weak fluctuation" respectively, with an overall view of "low - level fluctuation". The core logic is the game between expectations and reality [1]. Market Driving Logic - The expectation of anti - involution has fermented, the market sentiment has warmed up, driving the night - session steel futures price to stabilize. The spot price remained stable over the weekend. The supply of rebar has continued to shrink to a low level, supporting the steel price, but the sustainability of production cuts is questionable. The demand for rebar is weak, high - frequency indicators continue to run at a low level, and the downstream industries have not improved, which is expected to continue the seasonal weakening trend and drag down the steel price. The low - supply pattern supports the steel price, but the demand is also weak, and the fundamentals have no substantial improvement. In the off - season, the steel price is still prone to pressure. The relatively favorable factors are low valuation and policy expectations. The steel price will continue to fluctuate and seek the bottom under the game between expectations and reality, and attention should be paid to the changes in steel mill production [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On December 12, 2025, all stock indices oscillated and rebounded. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.12 trillion yuan, an increase of 233.5 billion yuan from the previous day [3]. - The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that in 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. The key tasks for next year are to focus on domestic demand and build a strong domestic market, and to adhere to innovation - driven development and cultivate new growth drivers. Policy benefits in expanding domestic demand and supporting technological innovation will continue and intensify, which will play a positive role in stabilizing total economic demand and promoting structural transformation and upgrading. The risk appetite of the stock market has recovered, driving the stock index to rebound [3]. - External risk factors have eased, and the domestic liquidity environment is relatively loose. In the short term, the risk appetite of the stock market is relatively positive and optimistic. Overall, the expectation of policy benefits is gradually fermenting, and the stock index will be mainly oscillating and strengthening in the short term [3]. - For options, considering the long - term upward trend of the stock index, a bull spread or ratio spread strategy with a moderately bullish view can be adopted [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1 Option Indicators - **ETF and Index Performance**: On December 12, 2025, 50ETF rose 0.45% to 3.134; 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.56% to 4.694; 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.55% to 4.766; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.63% to 4580.95; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.81% to 7370.94; 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 1.17% to 7.285; 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.20% to 2.872; the ChiNext ETF rose 0.89% to 3.174; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.58% to 3.449; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.59% to 2994.64; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.87% to 1.42; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 1.63% to 1.37 [5]. - **Volume and Position PCR**: The report provides the volume PCR and position PCR of various options on December 12, 2025, and their values on the previous trading day, including 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, etc [6]. - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: The report presents the implied volatility of at - the - money options in December 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets for various options, such as 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options [7][8]. 2 Relevant Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: The report includes charts of the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [9][10][11]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: There are charts of the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [20][21][22]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Charts cover the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [32][33][34]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: The report shows charts of the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [44][45][46]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: There are charts of the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [57][58][59]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Charts include the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [71][72][73]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: The report provides charts of the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [84][85][86]. - **ChiNext ETF Options**: There are charts of the ChiNext ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [97][98][99]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: The report shows charts of the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [110][111][112]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Charts cover the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [123][124][125]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: There are charts of the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [136][137][138]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: The report provides charts of the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [145][146][147].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.87%. The supply of rebar continued to shrink at a low level, supporting the steel price, but the demand was also weak. The fundamentals did not improve under the situation of weak supply and demand. The steel price was under pressure in the off - season. With the relatively low valuation, the steel price was expected to continue to oscillate and bottom out [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated downward, with a daily decline of 0.83%. Both the supply and demand sides of hot - rolled coil weakened, the industrial contradiction was not alleviated, the inventory de - stocking pressure was relatively large, and the price continued to be under pressure. With the relatively low valuation, it continued to operate in a weakly oscillating state under the weak reality pattern [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily decline of 0.33%. Supported by the structural contradiction of the spot and the black arbitrage logic, the ore price remained at a high level. However, the demand for iron ore weakened while the supply remained at a high level. The fundamentals of the ore market were not good, and the upward driving force was not strong. The ore price maintained a high - level oscillating operation state under the game of multiple and short factors [5]. Summary of Each Section 1. Industry Dynamics - Minister of Finance Lan Fuan said to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, with "two maintenances" in specific arrangements and "three adherences" in implementation. The fiscal department will prepare next year's budget and implement policies [7]. - People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng said to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, creating a good monetary and financial environment for economic growth and financial market stability, preventing and resolving key financial risks, and promoting global financial governance [8]. - As of December 11, 4 steel enterprises announced the progress of ultra - low emission transformation and evaluation and monitoring, and 234 steel enterprises have been publicly announced on the website of the China Iron and Steel Association [9]. 2. Spot Market | Variety | Location | Spot Price | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) | Shanghai | 3,240 | 0 | | | Tianjin | 3,150 | - 10 | | | National Average | 3,290 | - 7 | | Hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) | Shanghai | 3,240 | - 10 | | | Tianjin | 3,170 | - 20 | | | National Average | 3,284 | - 11 | | Tangshan Steel Billet (Q235) | - | 2,940 | 0 | | Zhangjiagang Heavy Scrap (≥6mm) | - | 2,060 | - 10 | | PB Powder (Shandong Port) | - | 779 | 2 | | Tangshan Iron Concentrate (Wet - based) | - | 778 | 0 | | Ocean Freight (Australia) | - | 10.54 | - 0.80 | | Ocean Freight (Brazil) | - | 22.84 | - 1.18 | | SGX Swap (Current Month) | - | 105.75 | - 0.79 | | Platts Index (CFR, 62%) | - | 105.00 | - 1.40 | | Coil - Rebar Price Difference | - | 0 | - 10 | | Rebar - Scrap Price Difference | - | 1,180 | 10 | [10] 3. Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,060 | - 0.87 | 3,082 | 3,057 | 974,336 | - 385,670 | 1,607,057 | 4,982 | | Hot - rolled Coil | - | 3,232 | - 0.83 | 3,251 | 3,226 | 488,186 | - 141,824 | 1,190,487 | 42,139 | | Iron Ore | - | 760.5 | - 0.33 | 764.5 | 756.0 | 243,565 | - 81,386 | 465,488 | - 2,568 | [14] 4. Related Charts - The section includes charts on steel inventory (rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory, including weekly changes and total inventory), iron ore inventory (national 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, etc.), and steel - mill production (blast - furnace start - up rate, capacity utilization rate, independent electric - furnace start - up rate, etc.) [16][21][30] 5. Market Outlook - Rebar: The supply and demand continued to weaken. The weekly production of rebar decreased by 10.53 tons, and the demand decreased by 13.89 tons. The supply was at a low level, supporting the price, but the demand was also weak. With the relatively low valuation, the price was expected to continue to oscillate and bottom out [39]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The supply - demand pattern continued to be weak. The weekly production decreased by 5.60 tons, and the demand was also weak. The inventory de - stocking pressure was large, and the price continued to be under pressure. With the relatively low valuation, it continued to operate in a weakly oscillating state [39]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand pattern changed little. The demand for iron ore weakened, and the supply remained at a high level. Supported by structural contradictions and arbitrage logic, the ore price remained high but with weak upward driving force, maintaining a high - level oscillating state [40].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 12 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 成本需求双重压制，焦炭期货弱势运行 焦煤：截至 12 月 12 日当周，供应端全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 75 万吨，环比降 0.4 万吨，同比降 5.3 万吨；需求端全样本焦化厂和钢厂焦 炭日均产量合计 110.59 万吨，周环比降 0.56 万吨，同比降 2.9 万吨。本 周内，焦煤现货价格仍偏弱运行，下游焦化厂利润改善，Mysteel 的 30 家独立样本焦化厂吨焦盈利周环比改善 14 元，至 44 元/吨。整体来看， 年末焦煤产需均小幅下滑，但蒙煤进口量的持续增长对市场氛围形成压 制，叠加政策端缺乏向上驱动，焦煤期货维持弱势运行。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 12 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂维持强势 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 97720 元/吨，较前日下 跌 1160 元/吨（-1.17%），近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 94590 元/吨，较前日上涨 1.12%， 近 10 个交易日整体呈现震荡走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为-5070 点，负基差（现货贴水），较前日 走弱 710 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走弱。 【仓单情况】碳酸 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 姓名：陈栋 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 12 月 12 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏空情绪占优 能化偏弱运行 核心观点 橡胶：本周五国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现缩量增仓，震荡偏强， 略微收涨的走势，盘中期价重心小幅上移至 15230 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收涨 0.26%至 15230 元/吨。1-5 月差升水幅度收敛至 15 元/吨。目前国内胶市由供需基本面所主导，胶价维持区间内震荡。 宝城期货金融研究所 宝城期货投资咨询部 甲醇：本周五国内甲醇期货 2605 合约呈现放量增 ...

螺纹钢周度数据（20251212） 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778号 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 周度产量 178.78 -10.53 206.08 -27.30 233.82 -55.04 高炉产能利用率（%） 85.92 -1.16 87.98 -2.06 88.53 -2.61 表观需求量 203.09 -13.89 227.94 -24.85 234.20 -31.11 钢联建材成交周均值 10.02 0.12 10.46 -0.44 11.61 -1.59 总库存 479.50 -24.31 531.48 -51.98 445.11 34.39 厂内库存 140.80 -1.88 146.73 -5.93 148.72 -7.92 社会库存 338.70 -22.43 384.75 -46.05 296.39 42.31 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 春 节 前 15 周 春 节 前 12 周 春 节 前 9 周 春 节 前 6 周 春 节 前 3 周 春 节 当 周 春 节 后 3 周 春 节 后 6 周 ...