Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 01 shows signs of stabilizing and starting to rise after a short - term battle around 14,000. Optimistic expectations may prevail regarding whether the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season will be prosperous. If it can stabilize above 14,000, the probability of subsequent volatile upward movement increases [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No content related to the previous day's review is provided in the report. 2. Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: According to the ICAC August report, the 2025/26 cotton production is 25.9 million tons and consumption is 25.6 million tons. The USDA August report shows that the 2025/26 production is 25.392 million tons, consumption is 25.688 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.093 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's cotton imports in July were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%; cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. The Ministry of Agriculture's August forecast for the 2025/26 season is a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons, presenting a neutral situation [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,235 yuan, with a basis of 1,115 yuan (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for China's ending inventory in the 2025/26 season in August is 8.23 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear; still bullish [4]. 3. Today's Focus - No content related to today's focus is provided in the report. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: Data on production, consumption, imports, exports, and ending inventory of major cotton - producing and consuming countries from 2021/22 to 2024/25 (July and August statistics) are presented, along with monthly adjustments, year - on - year percentages, and year - on - year changes [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, global production is 2.59 million tons (+400,000 tons, +1.6%), consumption is 2.56 million tons (basically flat), ending inventory is 1.71 million tons (+260,000 tons, +1.6%), global trade volume is 970,000 tons (+360,000 tons, +3.9%), and the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [11]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's China Cotton Forecast**: For the 2025/26 season, the estimated beginning inventory is 8.01 million tons, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be in the range of 75 - 100 cents per pound [13]. 5. Position Data - No content related to position data is provided in the report.

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, the arrival level this month has dropped, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventories are decreasing, a crude steel production cut policy will be introduced, and the trade war is easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot prices of PB powder and Brazilian mix at Rizhao Port are at a premium to futures, which is bullish [2]. - Port inventories are 143.8157 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, being neutral [2]. - The price on the disk is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is flat, which is bullish [2]. - The net position of the iron ore main contract is short and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [2]. - With the expected decline in domestic demand and the impact of the capacity - reduction plan on the market, the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 利多 (Bullish Factors) - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The prices of downstream steel products are rising, with a strong ability to bear high - priced raw materials [6]. 利空 (Bearish Factors) - Future shipment volumes will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. Other Related Information - The report also contains information on iron ore port spot prices [7], iron ore basis [12], iron ore import profit [15], iron ore shipment volume [17], iron ore port and steel mill inventories [20], iron ore arrival and port clearance volume [22], iron ore daily consumption [25], steel enterprise production situation [28], and iron ore daily port transactions and steel mill daily hot metal production [30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US soybean oil biodiesel policy supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations ease and affect the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,568, and the basis is 80, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - Main position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,250 - 8,650 [2] Daily Views - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. The export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,638, and the basis is 56, indicating a neutral situation [3] - Inventory: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - Main position: The main palm oil contract has shifted from long to short [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,400 - 9,800 [3] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. The export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,006, and the basis is 115, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - Main position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and there is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - Bearish factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-8-26 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润修复，行业冷修速度放缓，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；深加工 订单不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1072元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1191元/吨，基差为-119元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6360.60万重量箱，较前一周增加0.28%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 主要逻辑和风险点 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. The short - term outlook is expected to be mainly volatile and weak [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, while photovoltaic daily melting volume drops significantly, terminal demand weakens, and soda ash factory inventory is at a historical high; bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,220 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,337 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 117 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot; bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.9108 million tons, an increase of 0.90% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; bearish [2][36]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - Expectation: Due to the strong supply and weak demand in the soda ash fundamentals, it is expected to be mainly volatile and weak in the short term [2]. 2. Influence Factors Summary - Bullish factors: The peak summer overhaul season is coming, and production will decline [3]. - Bearish factors: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with industry production at a historical high; downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda has cut production, weakening the demand for soda ash; the positive sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has subsided [5]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,326 yuan/ton | 1,220 yuan/ton | - 106 yuan | | Current Value | 1,337 yuan/ton | 1,220 yuan/ton | - 117 yuan | | Change Rate | 0.83% | 0.00% | 10.38% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,220 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. - Production profit: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 48.10 yuan/ton, and the profit by the East China co - production process is - 58 yuan/ton, with the soda ash production profit rising from a historical low [15]. - Operating rate and production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 88.48%, and the seasonal decline in the operating rate is delayed. The weekly production of soda ash is 771,400 tons, including 425,200 tons of heavy soda ash, with production at a historical high [18][20]. - Industry capacity changes: In 2023, the new soda ash production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Soda ash production and sales rate: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 97.80% [24]. - Downstream demand: The national float glass daily melting volume is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.34%. The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry cuts production, and the in - production daily melting volume continues a significant downward trend [27][33]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.9108 million tons, an increase of 0.90% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [36]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity | Production | Operating Rate | Imports | Exports | Net Imports | Apparent Supply | Total Demand | Supply - Demand Gap | Capacity Growth Rate | Production Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 30.35 million tons | 27.15 million tons | 89.46% | 140,000 tons | 1.52 million tons | - 1.38 million tons | 25.77 million tons | 25.17 million tons | 600,000 tons | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 30.87 million tons | 25.83 million tons | 83.57% | 290,000 tons | 1.38 million tons | - 1.09 million tons | 24.74 million tons | 25.23 million tons | - 490,000 tons | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 32.47 million tons | 28.04 million tons | 86.36% | 190,000 tons | 1.44 million tons | - 1.25 million tons | 26.79 million tons | 26.31 million tons | 480,000 tons | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 33.17 million tons | 27.57 million tons | 73.40% | 360,000 tons | 1.38 million tons | - 1.02 million tons | 26.55 million tons | 26.07 million tons | 480,000 tons | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 32.88 million tons | 28.92 million tons | 71.90% | 230,000 tons | 730,000 tons | - 500,000 tons | 28.42 million tons | 27.64 million tons | 780,000 tons | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 31.14 million tons | 29.44 million tons | 85.26% | 110,000 tons | 2.06 million tons | - 1.95 million tons | 27.49 million tons | 29.13 million tons | - 1.64 million tons | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 33.42 million tons | 32.28 million tons | 87.76% | 820,000 tons | 1.44 million tons | - 620,000 tons | 31.66 million tons | 31.55 million tons | 110,000 tons | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 39.30 million tons | 36.50 million tons | 78.20% | 420,000 tons | 1.56 million tons | - 1.14 million tons | 35.36 million tons | 33.79 million tons | 1.57 million tons | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [37]

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: August 26, 2025 - Company: Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Analyst: Jin Zebin [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend today, influenced by factors such as cost support, potential anti - involution policies, and weak demand [4]. - The PP market is also expected to show an oscillating and slightly upward trend, considering cost support, upcoming reform plans, and the gradual improvement in downstream demand [8]. Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In July, China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs both showed contraction, while exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year. An industry reform plan to address over - capacity is expected to be introduced in September. The overall demand for agricultural films is lower than expected, and the current LLDPE delivery spot price is 7300 (+0), with overall neutral fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The LLDPE 2601 contract basis is - 123, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.7%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The PE comprehensive inventory is 56.4 tons (+5.9), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish sign [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to oscillate, and with the expectation of anti - involution policies and weak agricultural film demand, the PE is expected to trend slightly upward today [4]. - **Factors**: Positive factors include cost support and the expected introduction of a petrochemical anti - involution reform plan; negative factors are weak demand [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, July's manufacturing PMIs contracted, and exports rose. A reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is expected in September. Downstream demand is gradually turning to the peak season, with a slight improvement in the demand for pipes and plastic weaving. The current PP delivery spot price is 7050 (+20), with overall neutral fundamentals [8]. - **Basis**: The PP 2601 contract basis is - 24, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.3%, showing a neutral signal [8]. - **Inventory**: The PP comprehensive inventory is 57.2 tons (-1.5), which is neutral [8]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [8]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to oscillate, and with the expectation of anti - involution policies and the improvement in downstream demand, the PP is expected to trend slightly upward today [8]. - **Factors**: Positive factors include cost support and the expected introduction of a petrochemical anti - involution reform plan; negative factors are weak demand [9]. Main Logic and Risks - **Main Logic**: The main influencing factors are cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [7][10]. - **Risks**: The main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [7][10]. Data Tables - **Spot and Futures Data**: The report provides detailed spot prices, futures prices, basis, and inventory data for LLDPE and PP, including information on import prices, import spreads, and different contract prices [11]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The supply - demand balance sheets for polyethylene and polypropylene from 2018 to 2025E are presented, showing data on capacity, production, net imports, consumption, and inventory [16][18]. Charts - The report includes multiple charts, such as LLDPE and PP's futures - spot prices and basis, warehouse receipts, comprehensive inventory, production cash flow, and polyolefin internal - external price spreads [12][14][19]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-8-26 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 利空 • 1、开工日产高位 • 2、国内需求偏弱 • 主要逻辑：国际价格，国内需求边际变化 • 主要风险点：出口政策变化 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | 存 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 | 数 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1810 | 1 0 | 01合约 | 1745 | 6 | 仓 单 | 5123 | 1050 | | 山东现货 | 1810 | 1 0 | 基 差 | 6 5 | 4 | UR综 ...

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Cotton Morning Report - August 25, 2025 - **Report Author**: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - **Report Source**: Dayue Futures 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 01 shows signs of starting to rise after a short - term struggle at 14,000. Optimistic expectations may prevail regarding whether the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" will be prosperous. After standing firm at 14,000, the probability of a volatile upward trend increases [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review No content is provided under this section in the report. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: According to ICAC's August report, the production in the 25/26 season is 25.9 million tons, and consumption is 25.6 million tons. USDA's August report shows production of 25.392 million tons, consumption of 25.688 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.093 million tons in the 25/26 season. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's cotton imports in July were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for the 25/26 season includes production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons, presenting a neutral situation [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,243, with a basis of 1213 (for the 01 contract), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's estimated ending inventory for the 25/26 season in August is 8.23 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, still considered bullish [4]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Likely Positive Factors**: Reduced previous Sino - US additional tariffs and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. There are enhanced expectations for the peak consumption seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The trade negotiation is postponed, and the current export tariffs to the US are relatively high. Overall foreign trade orders are decreasing, and inventory is increasing. A large amount of new cotton is about to be listed [5]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In August, the total global production is 25.392 million tons, a decrease of 391,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. Consumption is 25.688 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The ending inventory is 16.093 million tons, a decrease of 742,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, global production is 25.9 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (+1.6%); the global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, an increase of 360,000 tons (+3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents), with a narrower year - on - year fluctuation [11]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast for China**: In the 2025/26 season, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons [4][13]. 3.5. Position Data No content is provided under this section in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, nickel prices continued to be weak. At the beginning of the week, trading was light, but as nickel prices further declined, trading improved. In the industry chain, ore prices remained stable, while ferronickel prices increased slightly, with a firm cost line. Stainless steel inventories increased, and it is expected that the "Golden September and Silver October" period will boost consumption and reduce inventories. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the installed capacity of ternary batteries decreased year - on - year, limiting overall demand growth. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [8]. - The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and the stainless steel main contract is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Views and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel View**: Nickel prices were weak this week. The ore price was stable, ferronickel price rose slightly, stainless steel inventory increased, and the overall demand boost was limited. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [8]. - **Operation Strategy**: The Shanghai nickel main contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and the stainless steel main contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The prices of red clay nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% remained unchanged from last week [13]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan ex - factory prices decreased by 0.61%, 0.87%, and 0.57% respectively compared with last week [14]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of low - grade ferronickel in Shandong increased by 7.81%, while the price of high - grade ferronickel remained unchanged [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased by 0.27% compared with last week [14]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased by 0.74%, while the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained unchanged [13]. 3.2.2. Nickel Ore Market Conditions Analysis - Nickel ore prices were stable, and shipping costs were the same as last week. On August 21, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 12.0585 million wet tons, an increase of 1.1069 million wet tons or 10.11% from the previous period. In July 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 5.0058 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6591 million tons or 15.16% and a year - on - year increase of 1.5207 million tons or 43.63%. The September quotation was settled, and the ore price remained stable [17]. 3.2.3. Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions Analysis - Nickel prices fluctuated weakly with support below and pressure above. In the long - term, supply and demand will continue to increase, but the oversupply pattern will not change. In July 2025, China's refined nickel production was 36,151 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.74% and a year - on - year increase of 24.57%. In July 2025, China's refined nickel import volume was 38,164.223 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,154 tons or 124.36%, and the export volume was 15,545.572 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,403 tons or 53.27%. LME inventory decreased by 1,914 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 19 tons [22][30][33]. 3.2.4. Nickel Iron Market Conditions Analysis - Ferronickel prices increased slightly. In July 2025, China's nickel pig iron actual production of metal was 22,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.63%. In July 2025, China's nickel iron import volume was 836,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 206,000 tons or 19.7%. In July 2025, the nickel iron inventory was 224,800 physical tons, equivalent to 21,800 nickel tons [43][46][49]. 3.2.5. Stainless Steel Market Conditions Analysis - The price of 304 stainless steel decreased this week. In July, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.2108 million tons, and the 300 - series production decreased by 2.63% month - on - month. The latest stainless steel import volume was 73,000 tons, and the export volume was 416,300 tons. On August 22, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.0917 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons [56][61][64]. 3.2.6. New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales Situation - In July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 26.3% and 27.4%. From January to July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 39.2% and 38.5%. In July 2025, the production of power and other batteries was 133.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 44.3%. The installed capacity of ternary batteries decreased year - on - year [73][74][78]. 3.3. Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price fell below the 20 - day moving average and continued to decline along the moving average. The short - selling force is increasing. The MACD continued to diverge downward after a death cross. The KDJ entered the oversold area and may have a rebound demand. The price is testing the support of the golden ratio line. If it breaks down, the downward space will be opened; otherwise, it will continue to fluctuate [81]. 3.4. Industry Chain Sorting and Summary - **Fundamental Views**: The nickel ore market is neutral, the ferronickel market is neutral, the refined nickel market is slightly bearish, the stainless steel market is neutral, and the new energy market is neutral [84]. - **Trading Strategy**: The Shanghai nickel main contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and the stainless steel main contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices oscillated and rebounded from a low level last week. The market expects prices to continue to stabilize and rise due to the "dovish" stance of the Fed Chairman's speech and supply - side disruptions [5][7] - The report suggests short - term long - biased operations in the range of 485 - 515 and holding long - term long positions [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review - Last week, NYMEX WTI crude futures closed at $63.77 per barrel, up 2.38% for the week; Brent crude futures closed at $67.26 per barrel, up 2.77% for the week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 492.9 yuan per barrel, up 1.36% for the week [5] - The net long positions of Brent crude oil futures decreased by 23,852 contracts to 182,695 contracts in the week of August 19. The net long positions of WTI crude oil increased by 3,467 contracts to 120,209 contracts [5] - Trump's series of meetings and the geopolitical situation affected the early - week weakness of oil prices, while sanctions on Iran, the tendency to sanction Russia, and better - than - expected inventory drawdowns drove prices up in the latter half of the week [5] - Trump is promoting a tri - lateral summit between Russia, Ukraine, and the US. Although the atmosphere has improved, risks remain, and there may be pressure on Kiev for territorial concessions [5] - Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium was interpreted as "dovish", increasing the market's bet on a Fed rate cut in September to nearly 90% [6] - Ukrainian military attacked the Unecha pumping station of the "Friendship" oil pipeline, causing the interruption of crude oil transportation to Hungary [6] - The US imposed sanctions on Antonios Margaritis and related companies, and Russian refinery attacks are expected to reduce high - sulfur fuel oil supply by 70,000 barrels per day from August to September [6] 3.2 Related Information - Market participants increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in September to nearly 90% after Powell's speech [6] - Ukrainian military's drone attack on the Unecha pumping station of the "Friendship" oil pipeline led to the interruption of crude oil transportation to Hungary [6] - The US sanctions and Russian refinery attacks tightened the high - sulfur fuel oil supply [6] 3.3 Outlook - Crude oil prices are expected to continue to stabilize and rise due to the "dovish" signal from the Fed and supply - side disruptions [7] - Short - term long - biased operations in the range of 485 - 515 and holding long - term long positions are recommended [8] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot Weekly Prices**: The prices of various crude oil varieties showed different changes. For example, the price of UK Brent Dtd increased by 0.02 to 67.91 dollars, with a change rate of 0.03% [11] - **Cushing Inventory**: As of August 15, the Cushing inventory was 23.47 million barrels, an increase of 419,000 barrels [12] - **EIA Inventory**: As of August 15, the EIA inventory was 420.684 million barrels, a decrease of 6.014 million barrels [13] 3.5持仓数据（原文英文表述应为Position Data） - **CFTC Fund Net Long Positions**: As of August 19, the net long positions of WTI crude oil were 120,209 contracts, an increase of 3,467 contracts [20] - **ICE Fund Net Long Positions**: As of August 19, the net long positions of ICE crude oil were 182,695 contracts, a decrease of 23,852 contracts [21]