交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年11月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 黄金 1、基本面：美国ADP就业数据疲软，数据公布后金价V型反转；美国三大股指收盘涨 跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌 5.25个基点报4.062%；美元指数跌0.14%报99.48，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报 7.1225；COMEX黄金期货涨0.27%报4133.20美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货948.88，现货946.23，基差-2.65，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单89616千克，增加1800千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多减；偏多 6、预期：今日关注美联储和欧央行委员密集讲话、欧元集团会议、加拿大央行决 议。美国ADP就业数据疲软，但金银价格在数据公布后开始大幅回落，后又因降息预 期升温，金价回升。沪金溢价继续在0-1元/克震荡。美国结束关门预期乐观 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The high - sulfur fuel oil downstream demand in the Singapore market has been stable, but recent incremental supply from the Middle East has led to an oversupply, putting pressure on the downstream premium. The market is currently in a state where supply - side geopolitical risks and neutral demand co - exist. The expected end of the US government shutdown has boosted market risk appetite, and the increasing concerns about Russian energy exports will support fuel oil to some extent. FU2601 is expected to trade in the 2690 - 2730 range, and LU2601 in the 3300 - 3340 range [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: High - sulfur fuel oil downstream demand is stable, but supply from the Middle East has made the market oversupplied; the basis shows that the spot is nearly flat to the futures; Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 140,000 barrels to 21.069 million barrels in the week of November 5; the price is near the 20 - day line which is flat; high - sulfur main positions are short - increasing, while low - sulfur main positions are long - increasing. The expected end of the US government shutdown and concerns about Russian energy exports will support fuel oil. FU2601: 2690 - 2730, LU2601: 3300 - 3340 [3]. - **Futures Quotes**: The current price of the FU main contract is 2675, down 8 or 0.30% from the previous value; the LU main contract is 3264, down 4 or 0.12%. The FU basis is - 10, up 9 or 47.35%, and the LU basis is 18, down 17 or 48.63% [5]. - **Spot Quotes**: The current price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil is 469.00, down 1.00 or 0.21%; Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil is 479.00, up 1.00 or 0.21%. Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 361.65, down 1.91 or 0.53%; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 448.52, down 4.98 or 1.10%. Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil is 331.38, down 1.53 or 0.46%; Singapore diesel is 694.91, down 9.57 or 1.36% [6]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Focus - **Positive Factors**: Russia has extended fuel export restrictions, and the cancellation of the US - Russia talks and sanctions against Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified [4]. - **Market Drivers**: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on November 5 was 21.069 million barrels, an increase of 140,000 barrels [3][8]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from August 27 to November 5 shows fluctuations, with an increase of 140,000 barrels in the week of November 5 to 21.069 million barrels [8]. 3.5 Spread Data - The report presents a chart of the high - low sulfur futures spread, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The cost is expected to weaken, and the supply is expected to increase next week. The current demand may remain weak, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4547 - 4597 [7][12]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - moving inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - The basis on November 11 showed that the spot price was higher than the futures price, which was neutral. The inventory situation was mixed, with the factory inventory decreasing and the social inventory increasing, also being neutral. The disk showed a bearish signal as the MA20 was downward and the 01 contract futures price closed below the MA20. The main position was net short with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [7][9]. - The main logic was the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand. The main risk points included the implementation of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and the cost support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide method [12][13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In October 2025, the PVC production was 2128120 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The calcium carbide method enterprise production was 345350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.89%, and the ethylene method enterprise production was 146770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63%. The supply pressure increased this week, and the maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with a slight increase in production scheduling [5]. 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream start - up rate was 49.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93 percentage points, but higher than the historical average. Different downstream sectors had different start - up rate changes, with some decreasing and some remaining flat or increasing. The shipping cost was expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price was competitive, but the current demand might remain weak [5]. 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 769.4 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 0.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 465.05 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 14.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2176.35 yuan/ton, with the profit decreasing by 1.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling might be under pressure [6]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The factory inventory was 334596 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%. The calcium carbide method factory inventory was 250396 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.78%, and the ethylene method factory inventory was 84200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63%. The social inventory was 545700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.20%. The production enterprise inventory days were 5.5 days, a month - on - month decrease of 2.65% [9]. 3.2.5 Position - The main position was net short, and the short position increased, showing a bearish trend [7]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provided detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices, price changes, spreads, and inventory data of different types of PVC and related products [14][15]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - It included the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures [17][20][21]. 3.5 PVC Fundamentals 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide Method - Related - It covered the price, cost - profit, start - up rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and their impact on PVC production [26][29][31][33]. 3.5.2 PVC Supply - It showed the capacity utilization rate, production profit, and production volume trends of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production [38][39][40]. 3.5.3 PVC Demand - It analyzed the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, and downstream start - up rates of PVC, as well as the relationship between PVC demand and real estate and infrastructure investment [43][45][47]. 3.5.4 PVC Inventory - It presented the inventory data of the exchange, calcium carbide method factory, ethylene method factory, and social inventory, as well as the production enterprise inventory days [54][55]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Method - It included the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method [56][57]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It showed the monthly import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export data of PVC, presenting the supply - demand trends [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate is complex. The production and import volume of lithium carbonate in the future have different trends, and the demand is expected to strengthen, with potential inventory reduction. The price of lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 85320 - 87760. The overall market shows a pattern of supply exceeding demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [8][9][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,534 tons, a 2.15% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In October 2025, the production was 92,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% month - on - month decrease. The import volume in October was 22,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 27,000 tons, a 22.73% month - on - month increase [8][9] - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8][9] - Cost side: The CIF price of 6% concentrate increased day - on - day, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, with production losses. The cash production cost of the salt lake end is significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins [9][10] - Price range: Lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 85320 - 87760 [9] - Influencing factors: Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a month - on - month decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene. Negative factors include continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to receive goods [11][12] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Fundamental: Neutral [10] - Basis: On November 11, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 4240 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [10] - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased by 2.67% week - on - week, higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters decreased by 4.16%, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory decreased by 2.40%, higher than the historical average; other inventories decreased by 1.88%, lower than the historical average [10] - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [10] - Main position: The main position is net short, and the short position increased, showing a bearish signal [10] 3.3 Price and Supply - Demand Data - **Lithium ore price**: The price of 6% lithium spodumene increased by 0.93% to 975 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) increased by 1.83% to 2220 yuan/ton [14] - **Supply - side data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate increased. The monthly production of lithium carbonate from various sources increased, and the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate also increased [18] - **Demand - side data**: The monthly production and export volume of lithium iron phosphate increased. The monthly production and inventory of ternary precursors increased. The monthly production and loading volume of power batteries increased [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the recent spot market negotiation atmosphere is relatively dull, mainly dominated by traders, with few actions from polyester factories. The spot basis runs at a low level near the risk - free arbitrage, and the market sentiment is wait - and - see. It is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory of ethylene glycol has rebounded to around 660,000 tons this week, and the arrival of foreign ships in the middle of the month is still concentrated. There is still room for further accumulation of port inventory in the short term. From the perspective of the supply - demand structure, there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol, and the extrusion of the supply side is difficult to be reflected in the short term. The future spot liquidity will gradually become abundant. The coal market has been rising recently, providing some support to the cost link. It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate mainly, with obvious pressure on the upper side [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fell in the late trading yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was relatively dull, the spot basis fluctuated in the range, and a small number of polyester factories made bids. The negotiation and transaction prices in November were around 4,580 - 4,620 at a discount of 75 - 80 to the 01 contract. There was a transaction at 01 - 73 at the beginning of December. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 77 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,604, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 44, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a neutral situation [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PTA factories is 4.09 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 days, which is bearish [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position increased, which is bearish [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward, and the basis was stable and slightly weak. The ethylene glycol market adjusted narrowly at night. Some spot transactions were made at a premium of 68 - 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The ethylene glycol market weakened during the day, and the spot price at the low end was around 3,940 yuan/ton. The basis was slightly adjusted to a premium of 66 - 67 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In the US dollar market, the price center of ethylene glycol in the external market weakened. The negotiation price of recent shipments in the morning was around 470 US dollars/ton, and it fell to around 465 US dollars/ton in the afternoon. The buying sentiment in the market was weak, and there were few transactions [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 3,979, and the basis of the 01 contract is 104, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 567,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 67,000 tons, which is bearish [7]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net long position decreased, which is bullish [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet It shows the data of PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for PTA, and other aspects from January 2024 to December 2025, including year - on - year changes in supply and demand, inventory changes, and supply - demand gaps [9]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet It shows the data of ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for ethylene glycol, port inventory, and other aspects from January 2024 to December 2025, including year - on - year changes in supply and demand, inventory changes, and supply - demand gaps [10]. Price and Basis Data - **Spot Price**: The prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers on November 11 and 10, 2025, and their price changes are provided, as well as the basis data of PTA and MEG futures contracts [11]. - **Profit Data**: The profit data of PTA processing, MEG production from different raw materials (naphtha, ethylene, methanol, coal), and polyester fiber production (POY, FDY, DTY, short - fiber) are provided [11]. Other Data There are also data on PET bottle - chip price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA and MEG price spreads, inventory, and the start - up rates of the upstream and downstream of the polyester industry [13][17][22][28][35][38][50][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Under the expectation of a weakening fundamental situation, domestic methanol is expected to continue its weak performance in the short term. Inland, multiple olefin plants plan to undergo maintenance in November, traditional downstream acetic acid operations are at a low level, and a large methanol-to-hydrogen plant in northern Shandong has stopped for maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on demand. With the current high domestic methanol operation rate and upstream methanol factories still focused on inventory clearance, the supply-demand contradiction is unlikely to ease in the short term. Considering the current low methanol prices and the cautious short - selling by traders, which provides support for the bottom price, the expected decline is limited. In ports, under the pressure of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventory, the port methanol market is expected to continue its weak decline this week. Attention should be paid to subsequent impacts of sanctions, Iranian shipments, and coastal MTO operation rates. Overall, methanol prices are expected to fluctuate weakly this week, with MA2601 expected to trade between 2070 - 2110 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For methanol 2601, the fundamental situation is expected to be weak, with the price expected to fluctuate weakly between 2070 - 2110. The basis shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is 2080 yuan/ton, with a basis of -2 for the 01 contract, indicating the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. As of November 6, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 126.61 tons, with a slight decrease of 1.68 tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 3.28 tons to 80.55 tons. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average. The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions [4]. 2. Long and Short Concerns - **Long Factors**: Some plants have stopped production, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; Iranian methanol operation rates have decreased, and port inventories are at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into operation later this month; northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Short Factors**: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there is an expected concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and MTBE operation rates have significantly declined; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some plants in production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region remained unchanged at 694 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port decreased by 2 US dollars/ton to 242 US dollars/ton, and the import cost decreased by 17 yuan/ton to 2132 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 2082 yuan/ton. The basis increased by 19 yuan/ton to -22 yuan/ton [8]. - **Operation Rate Data**: The national weighted average operation rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. Operation rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions all decreased, with decreases of 2.39%, 1.22%, and 3.55% respectively [8]. - **Inventory Data**: East China port inventory increased by 0.62 tons to 78.8 tons, and South China port inventory decreased by 0.30 tons to 49.81 tons [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and others. The maintenance periods vary, and some plants have experienced temporary shutdowns due to equipment failures or other reasons [57]. - **Overseas Plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations, while plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are generally operating normally. Some plants in Qatar and other regions are under maintenance [58]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some domestic olefin plants are under maintenance or have reduced operations, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy and Qinghai Salt Lake. Some plants are expected to be put into operation, such as the third - phase project of Inner Mongolia Baofeng [59].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: The demand shows no improvement, inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness remains weak. The real estate industry is in a downward cycle. With the spot price at 3190 and a basis of 165, the national inventory in 35 major cities is 425.7 million tons, decreasing month - on - month but increasing year - on - year. The price is below the 20 - day line which is downward, and the main position is net short with increasing shorts. Considering the weak real estate market, cooling demand, and domestic capacity - reduction plans, a volatile and bearish approach is recommended [2]. - **热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect. With the spot price at 3280 and a basis of 38, the national inventory in 33 major cities is 333.02 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year. The price is below the 20 - day line which is flat, and the main position is net short with increasing shorts. Given the increasing inventory, blocked exports, and domestic capacity - reduction plans, a volatile and bearish approach is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects 利多 (Positive Factors) - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: Low production, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [4]. - **热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Decent demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [7]. 利空 (Negative Factors) - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: The downstream real estate industry's downward cycle continues, and terminal demand remains weak and lower than the same period [4]. - **热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [8]. 价格 (Prices) - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: Spot price, Southeast Asian export price, basis, Tangshan billet price, domestic scrap steel comprehensive price [9][15][21][23][26]. - **热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Spot price, Southeast Asian export price, basis [12][18][21]. 开工率 (Operating Rates) - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: Blast furnace operating rate, short - process electric furnace operating rate [29][32]. 产量 (Output) - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: Weekly output [35]. - **热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Weekly output [38]. 利润 (Profits) - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: Disk profit, blast furnace estimated profit, construction steel electric furnace estimated profit [41][46][48]. - **热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Disk profit, blast furnace estimated profit [44][51]. 库存 (Inventory) - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: Social inventory, steel mill inventory [53][56]. - **热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Social inventory, steel mill inventory [59][62]. 表观消费 (Apparent Consumption) - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: Apparent consumption, year - on - year change, comparison with the same - period average, inventory - to - consumption ratio [65][66][67][68]. - **热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Apparent consumption, year - on - year change, comparison with the same - period average, inventory - to - consumption ratio [70][72][73][74]. 其他 (Others) - Building materials trading volume, real estate development investment and sales area (cumulative year - on - year), housing new construction, construction and completion area (cumulative year - on - year), manufacturing PMI, steel monthly export data, cement price [75][78][80][82][85][87].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-11-12 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：供给低位企稳回升，但沙河地区"煤改气"等供应端扰动因素较多；下游深加工订单 整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱，库存高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1052元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1036元/吨，基差为-17元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6313.6万重量箱，较前一周减少4.03%，库存在5年均值上方运行； 偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 2、风险点： "反内卷"政策力度超预期 1、地产终端需求 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-11-12 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1500 1700 1900 2100 2300 2500 2700 2900 2023/1/1 2023/4/1 2023/7/1 2023/10/1 2024/1/1 2024/4/1 2024/7/1 2024/10/1 2025/1/1 2025/4/1 2025/7/1 2025/10/1 坐标轴标题 U R期现价格及基差 基差 主力收盘 现货 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率再次出现回升，综合库存小幅回落。需求端，农业需求受天气 影响有所回升，工业需求中性偏弱，复合肥开工同比中性、三聚氰胺 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show weak and volatile trends today, with overall bearish fundamentals due to oversupply, high industrial inventories, and fluctuating crude oil prices. However, there are also some positive factors such as new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and a phased easing in Sino-US talks [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. Sino-US leaders held a meeting, and OPEC+ announced a suspension of production increases in Q1 2026, causing oil prices to fluctuate. The peak season demand for agricultural films continues, but restocking for other films is ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6820 (-10), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 60, with a premium ratio of 0.9%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 579,000 tons (+39,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend today [4]. - **Positive Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices, and Sino-US talks reach a phased easing [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker year-on-year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro policies [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the manufacturing prosperity declined in October. Sino-US talks and OPEC+ decisions affected oil prices. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6470 (-30), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 41, with a premium ratio of 0.6%, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 600,000 tons (+5,000), which is bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend today [6]. - **Positive Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices, and Sino-US talks reach a phased easing [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker year-on-year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7]. - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro policies [7]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4,319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4,906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15].