Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 2: Report Core Views - **Bean Meal**: The US soybean market is affected by the expected high yield and technical adjustments, and is waiting for the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in the US soybean - producing areas. The domestic bean meal is influenced by the US soybean trend, with high imports in August and spot price discounts limiting the upside. It may enter a moderately strong oscillatory pattern in the short term. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 3080 and 3140 [8]. - **Soybean**: The US soybean market is under pressure from the expected high yield and good growth weather, while the domestic soybean market is affected by the expected increase in imports and the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans. The A2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 3960 and 4060 [10]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Prompt - No specific content for daily prompt is provided 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, imports, and China - US tariff negotiations. - The domestic import of soybeans remains high in August, and the oil - mill bean meal inventory is at a relatively high level. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, the bean meal is short - term oscillating moderately strongly. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig restocking. The recent recovery of bean meal demand supports the price, but due to the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, the bean meal returns to the range - oscillating pattern. - The domestic oil - mill bean meal inventory continues to rise. Affected by the possible speculation on the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and the variables in the China - US tariff war, the bean meal is short - term oscillating moderately strongly, waiting for the clear South American soybean output and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Bean Meal** - **Likely Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low domestic oil - mill bean meal inventory, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas. - **Likely Negative Factors**: High total domestic imports of soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybean** - **Likely Positive Factors**: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The continuous expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal** - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price in East China is 3010, and the basis is - 107, indicating a discount to the futures. - **Inventory**: The oil - mill bean meal inventory is 105.33 tons, a 3.8% increase from last week and a 29.71% decrease from the same period last year. - **Supply - demand**: The arrival of imported soybeans at ports in August remains high, and the output of bean meal in July increased year - on - year. The downstream procurement has recovered, and the pick - up volume remains high. - **Cost**: The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has decreased following the decline of US soybeans, and the profit margin of imported soybeans on the futures market has worsened [8][24][51]. - **Soybean** - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price is 4300, and the basis is 308, indicating a premium to the futures. - **Inventory**: The oil - mill soybean inventory is 682.53 tons, a 0.31% increase from last week and a 5.46% decrease from the same period last year. - **Supply - demand**: The expected increase in imports and the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans may suppress the price, but the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand provide some support [10]. 5. Position Data - **Bean Meal**: The main long positions have increased, but the funds have flowed out [8]. - **Soybean**: The main long positions have decreased, but the funds have flowed in [10].

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-26原油早报 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2510： 1.基本面：乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，他计划与美国特使凯洛格讨论与俄罗斯总统普京可能的会晤的 准备工作；匈牙利油气集团MOL表示，如果没有德鲁日巴管道供应，中欧可能在短期内面临燃料短 缺，可能导致燃料价格上涨，匈牙利和斯洛伐克周五表示，在乌克兰最近袭击俄罗斯的一处设施后， 通过德鲁日巴管道的石油供应可能会暂停至少五天；中性 2.基差：8月25日，阿曼原油现货价为70.11美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为69.57美元/桶，基差 28.65元/桶，现货平水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至8月15日当周API原油 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC decreased this week. The production of calcium carbide - based enterprises and ethylene - based enterprises decreased, but the expected maintenance will decrease next week, and the scheduled production is expected to increase significantly [7]. - The downstream demand is currently weak. The overall downstream start - up rate is lower than the historical average level, and although some downstream sectors have increased their start - up rates, they are still below the historical average, except for the film and paste resin sectors which are above the historical average [8]. - The cost situation is mixed. The loss of calcium carbide - based profit decreased, while the loss of ethylene - based profit increased. The double - ton spread profit increased, which may lead to an increase in scheduled production [8]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5006 - 5088. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to macro - policies and export dynamics [9]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positives include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The negatives are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide - based enterprises was 328,255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94%, and that of ethylene - based enterprises was 136,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04%. Next week, the expected maintenance will decrease, and the scheduled production is expected to increase significantly [7]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream start - up rate was 42.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The start - up rates of downstream profiles, pipes, films, and paste resins showed different changes, but overall, the current demand may remain weak [8]. - **Cost**: The calcium carbide - based profit was - 222.7577 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 3.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The ethylene - based profit was - 591.501 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 9.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,728.65 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 1.90% month - on - month, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, showing a bearish trend [9]. - **Expectation**: The calcium carbide - based cost is strengthening, the ethylene - based cost is weakening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The supply pressure decreased this week, and the scheduled production is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain weak. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5006 - 5088 [9]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents the price, spread, inventory, start - up rate, profit, and cost data of different PVC varieties and contracts, showing the changes in the PVC market [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base - price Trend**: It shows the historical data of the base price of PVC, reflecting the relationship between the spot price and the futures price [17]. - **Price and Volume Analysis**: It shows the price, trading volume, and position changes of PVC futures, helping to understand the market activity and price trends [21]. - **Spread Analysis**: It shows the historical data of the spread of the main PVC futures contracts, which is helpful for analyzing the price relationship between different contracts [23]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide - based Raw Materials**: It includes the price, cost, profit, start - up rate, and production data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda, which affect the cost and production of calcium carbide - based PVC [26][29][31][34]. - **Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production data of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC, reflecting the supply situation of PVC [39][41]. - **Demand Trend**: It shows the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - to - production ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream start - up rate data of PVC, reflecting the demand situation of PVC. It also includes the data of real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale, M2 increment, local government special bonds, and infrastructure investment, which are related to the demand for PVC [44][53][56]. - **Inventory Situation**: It shows the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days data of PVC, reflecting the inventory situation of PVC [57]. - **Ethylene - based Situation**: It shows the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene - based PVC, and import spread of vinyl chloride, reflecting the situation of ethylene - based PVC [59]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, reflecting the supply - demand balance situation of PVC [63].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **沪镍**: The 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The overall situation is bearish in the medium - to - long term due to an oversupply pattern, although there are some short - term bullish factors such as the basis [3][4]. - **不锈钢**: The 2510 contract is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average. The overall situation is neutral, with attention on the consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **沪镍** - **Fundamentals**: The overseas market is closed. Ore prices remain stable, ferronickel prices are rising steadily, and the cost line is firm. Stainless steel inventory has increased, and the demand boost is limited. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, which is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 121,250, and the basis is 940, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 209,748 (closed), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 22,292, a decrease of 260, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **不锈钢** - **Fundamentals**: Spot stainless steel prices are rising. Short - term nickel ore prices are stable, shipping costs are firm, and ferronickel prices are rising steadily. The cost line is firm, and inventory has increased. Attention should be paid to consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, which is neutral [5]. - **Basis**: The average stainless steel price is 13,800, and the basis is 920, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts are 101,687, a decrease of 238, which is bearish [5]. - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is neutral [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" period, anti - involution policies, and cost support at 120,000 [8]. - **Bearish Factors**: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, no new growth points in demand, long - term oversupply pattern, and a year - on - year decline in the installed capacity of ternary batteries [8]. 3.3 Price Overview - **镍**: The prices of most nickel products, including SMM1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, 1 imported nickel, and nickel beans, have increased compared to the previous period [13]. - **不锈钢**: The prices of cold - rolled stainless steel in some regions have increased, and the stainless steel futures price has also risen [13]. 3.4 Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **镍**: As of August 25, LME inventory remained unchanged at 209,748 (closed), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 260 to 22,292 [16]. - **不锈钢**: As of August 22, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.0917 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 658,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,200 tons. On August 25, the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 238 to 101,687 [20][21]. 3.5 Raw Material Prices - **镍 Ore and Ferronickel**: The prices of red - soil nickel ore and ferronickel remained stable from August 22 to August 25 [24]. - **Stainless Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost is 12,924, the scrap steel production cost is 13,590, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 16,565 [26]. - **Nickel Import Cost**: The calculated import price is 120,402 yuan/ton [28].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年8月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：早间特朗普称解除美联储理事Cook职务，早间金价短线拉升；美国三大 股指全线收跌，欧股收盘普遍下跌；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨 0.78个基点报4.269%；美元指数涨0.74%报98.44，离岸人民币对美元升值报 7.1581；COMEX黄金期货跌0.23%报3410.70美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货779.18，现货775.67，基差-3.51，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单37515千克，增加60千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方； ...

Report's Core View - Copper price is expected to be short - term oscillating and slightly stronger due to inventory increase, geopolitical disturbances, off - season consumption pressure, and rising expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. The factors considered include a neutral fundamental situation, a neutral basis, a neutral inventory situation, a bullish trend on the disk, bullish major positions, and other elements [2]. Industry Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Smelting enterprises are reducing production, and scrap copper policies have been relaxed. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, showing a neutral situation [2]. Basis Analysis - The spot price is 79360, and the basis is - 330, indicating a discount to the futures, which is a neutral situation [2]. Inventory Analysis - On August 22, copper inventory decreased by 375 to 155975 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 4663 tons to 81698 tons compared with last week, presenting a neutral situation. Also, bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [2][14]. Disk Analysis - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward, showing a bullish trend [2]. Major Position Analysis - The major net positions are long, but the long positions are decreasing, which is a bullish sign [2]. Supply - Demand Balance Analysis - There will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [20][22]. Other Analysis - Processing fees are falling, and the logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3][16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Jiaomei (Coking Coal)**: The price of coking coal may run strongly in the short term. Although the production of some local coking enterprises is restricted due to the approaching parade, the rigid demand for coking coal is strong because of the high level of molten iron in steel mills and the increased enthusiasm of coking enterprises to increase production after seven rounds of price increases for coke. However, the resistance to further price increases is increasing due to the cautious attitude of downstream buyers and the weak steel prices [2]. - **Jiaotan (Coke)**: Coke is expected to run steadily and strongly in the short term. The production of coking enterprises in many places is restricted by environmental protection requirements, leading to a tightening supply. Although the purchase rhythm of steel mills has become stable and some coking enterprises' inventory has begun to accumulate, the overall inventory is still at a low level [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Daily Views** - **Jiaomei**: The fundamentals show that the supply is tight due to mine safety inspections, but the downstream procurement is cautious. The basis indicates that the spot price is lower than the futures price. The inventory has decreased compared with last week. The price is above the 20 - day moving average, but the main - force position is net short and the short position is increasing [2]. - **Jiaotan**: The fundamentals show that the supply is tightening due to production restrictions in many places. The basis indicates that the spot price is lower than the futures price. The inventory has decreased compared with last week. The price is above the 20 - day moving average, but the main - force position is net short and the short position is increasing [6]. **Price** - **Jiaomei**: The prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia are provided, with different prices for various brands and ports [10]. - **Jiaotan**: The prices of port metallurgical coke are provided, with different prices for different grades, origins, and ports, and some prices have increased [9]. **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: The coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons from last week; the coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [20]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons from last week; the coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [25]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; the coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [29]. **Other Indicators** - **Coking Coal Spread**: No specific content provided. - **Coke Spread**: No specific content provided. - **Coking Coal Utilization Rate**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [42]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the fuel oil industry is a combination of multiple factors, with a neutral to mixed stance considering various aspects such as supply, demand, and market sentiment [3]. Core Viewpoints - The impact of the Russian refinery attack persists, keeping high - sulfur fuel oil prices at a high level. In Zhoushan, the North Asian bunkering center, tight barge schedules and moderate low - sulfur fuel oil demand are expected to boost valuations in the short term. High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain strong, while low - sulfur fuel oil may also see some support as the spot market's buying interest for September - loaded cargoes increases. The expected price ranges are 2890 - 2940 for FU2510 and 3540 - 3580 for LU2511 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The Russian Novoshakhtinsk refinery was attacked by drones, with a fire lasting four days as of Sunday. The refinery has an annual processing capacity of 5 million tons of oil (about 100,000 barrels per day). The market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil strengthened on August 25 due to expected tighter arbitrage supply in the coming weeks and tight barge operation berths in Singapore. The stable downstream bunker demand supports the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals, but the weakening power generation demand in the Middle East may lead to increased exports and regional inventory accumulation [3]. - The basis for Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is - 20 yuan/ton, and for low - sulfur fuel oil is 70 yuan/ton, with the spot at par with the futures [3]. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of August 20 was 23.919 million barrels, an increase of 1.28 million barrels [3]. - The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat [3]. - High - sulfur fuel oil's main position has changed from short to long, while low - sulfur fuel oil's main position has increased short positions [3]. 2. Multi - Short Focus - Bullish factors include the possible intensification of sanctions against Russia [4]. - Bearish factors are the unproven optimistic demand and the weak upstream crude oil prices. The market is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - The Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil price is 390.52 US dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil price is 489.5 US dollars/ton [3]. - The daily changes in futures prices show that the FU main contract futures price increased from 2767 to 2878 (a 4.01% increase), and the LU main contract futures price increased from 3467 to 3521 (a 1.56% increase) [5]. - The daily changes in spot prices show that the prices of various fuel oils in different regions all had small increases, with the increase range from 0.75% to 1.31% [6]. 4. Spread Data - Not provided in the content. 5. Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory data from June 4 to August 13 shows fluctuations, with an increase of 1.28 million barrels in the week of August 20 [3][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures fluctuate and rise, closing with a positive line, increased trading volume, and both long and short positions increasing, with the short side increasing slightly more. Overall, it was a volume - increasing rise. The price increase led to a slow entry of long positions, while the short side actively increased positions. Therefore, the market may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. Technically, the price closed above the 60 - day moving average, with stronger support from the moving average; the short - term indicator KDJ rose and operated in the weak area; the trend indicator rose, with the long - side strength increasing and the short - side strength decreasing, and the long - and short - side forces began to be in a stalemate. The operation suggestion is that the Shanghai zinc ZN2510 will fluctuate and consolidate [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, global zinc plate production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. In April, global zinc plate production was 1.0722 million tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, which is a positive factor [2]. - The spot price was 22,340, and the basis was - 55, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On August 22, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,300 tons to 68,075 tons compared with the previous day. On August 25, the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 2,403 tons to 35,194 tons compared with the previous day, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a fluctuating and rising trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is a negative factor [2]. - The main positions were net short, with long positions turning to short, which is a negative factor [2]. 2. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Market on August 25 - For different delivery months of zinc futures, there were various price changes, trading volumes, and position changes. For example, for the 2510 contract, the previous settlement was 22,245, the opening price was 22,220, the highest price was 22,465, the lowest price was 22,200, the closing price was 22,395, the settlement reference price was 22,355, the price increase was 150 (or 110 in another measure), the trading volume was 131,380 lots, the trading value was 1.46859574 billion yuan, and the open interest was 105,259 lots, a decrease of 2,533 lots [3]. 3. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on August 25 - The price of zinc concentrate in Chenzhou was 17,010 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot in Shanghai was 22,340 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheet in China was 4,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipe in China was 4,492 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,440 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Linzhou was 7,726 yuan/ton, with no change [4]. 4. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics in Main National Markets (August 14 - August 25, 2025) - The total zinc ingot inventory in main national markets increased from 109,900 tons on August 14 to 124,800 tons on August 25. Compared with August 18, it increased by 9,700 tons, and compared with August 21, it increased by 7,400 tons [5]. 5. Zinc Warrant Report of Futures Exchange on August 25 - The total zinc warrants of the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 35,194 tons, an increase of 2,403 tons compared with the previous day. Different regions and warehouses had different changes in warrants. For example, in Guangdong, the total warrants were 18,522 tons, an increase of 2,401 tons; in Tianjin, the total warrants were 16,672 tons, an increase of 2 tons [6]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on August 25 - The LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,300 tons to 68,075 tons, with registered warrants of 41,825 tons, unregistered warrants of 26,250 tons, and the unregistered warrant ratio was 38.56% [7]. 7. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on August 25 - No specific price data was provided in the text, only the title was given. 8. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on August 25 - The prices of zinc ingots from different smelters all increased by 110 yuan/ton. For example, the price of 0 zinc ingot from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter was 22,580 yuan/ton; from Sanniu Huludao Zinc Industry was 22,640 yuan/ton; from Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan was 22,310 yuan/ton; from Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium was 22,010 yuan/ton; from Henan Yuguang Gold & Lead was 22,350 yuan/ton; from Gansu Baiyin Non - ferrous was 22,055 yuan/ton [13]. 9. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production value in June was 459,700 tons, the actual production was 471,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and a 2.63% increase compared with the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production in July was 470,300 tons [15]. 10. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on August 25 - Different regions had different zinc concentrate processing fees. For example, in Baoshan, the processing fee for 50% zinc concentrate was between 3,700 and 3,900 yuan/metal ton; in Huludao, it was between 3,900 and 4,100 yuan/metal ton [17]. 11. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on August 25 - In the trading volume ranking of the zn2510 contract, CITIC Futures had the highest trading volume of 35,312 lots, an increase of 11,932 lots compared with the previous day. In the long - position ranking, CITIC Futures had 15,259 lots, a decrease of 101 lots compared with the previous day. In the short - position ranking, CITIC Futures had 12,073 lots, an increase of 627 lots compared with the previous day [18].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年8月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 4 基差 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14850，基差-1055 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比减少，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线走平，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，短多交易 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不 ...