Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The Shanghai nickel 2512 contract is expected to oscillate weakly and test cost support [2]. - The stainless steel 2601 contract is expected to have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Shanghai Nickel Fundamental Analysis - The external market is under pressure, oscillating around 15,000. Nickel ore prices are firm, while nickel - iron prices continue to decline, and stainless steel inventories have slightly increased. New nickel production capacity is coming online, and some production is being cut. In the short - term, production may decline, but in the long - term, supply remains strong, and inventories are increasing both at home and abroad. The new energy vehicle industry has limited impact on nickel demand. The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged [2]. Basis - The spot price is 120,450, and the basis is 1,740, indicating a bullish signal [2]. Inventory - LME inventory is 252,114 (-1,194), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 31,824 (-468), showing a bearish signal [2]. Market Chart - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, suggesting a bearish trend [2]. Main Position - The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. 2. Stainless Steel Fundamental Analysis - The spot price of stainless steel remains unchanged. In the short - term, nickel ore prices are firm, and shipping costs are stable, while nickel - iron prices are falling, and the cost line has further loosened. Stainless steel inventories have slightly increased [4]. Basis - The average price of stainless steel is 13,500, and the basis is 1,015, showing a bullish signal [4]. Inventory - The futures warehouse receipts are 71,436 (-299), indicating a neutral situation [4]. Market Chart - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, suggesting a bearish trend [4]. 3. Price and Inventory Data Nickel Price - On November 12, the Shanghai nickel main contract was 118,710 (-670), and the LME nickel was 15,010 (-15). Spot prices of various nickel products also declined [12]. Nickel Inventory - As of November 7, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 37,187 tons, with an increase of 436 tons. On November 12, LME inventory was 252,114 (-1,194), and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 31,824 (-468) [14][15]. Stainless Steel Price - The average price of stainless steel remained unchanged on November 12, and the cold - rolled coil prices in different regions also remained stable [12]. Stainless Steel Inventory - On November 7, the national stainless steel inventory was 103.4 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.29 million tons. On November 12, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 71,436 (-299) [19][20]. 4. Cost - related Data Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Price - The prices of red - soil nickel ore CIF remained unchanged on November 12. The price of high - nickel wet tons decreased by 3 yuan/nickel point, while the price of low - nickel wet tons remained unchanged [24]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost is 12,684, the scrap steel production cost is 12,886, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 16,454 [26]. Nickel Import Cost - The calculated import price is 120,355 yuan/ton [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass market has a weak fundamental situation, with production profit repair being sluggish, supply at a historically low level for the same period, downstream deep - processing orders being generally weak and below the previous year's level, and real - estate terminal demand being weak with high inventory. The short - term expectation is for the glass market to operate in a weak and volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased from 1053 yuan/ton to 1049 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.38%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass remained unchanged at 1036 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from - 17 yuan/ton to - 13 yuan/ton, a change of - 23.53% [5]. 3.2 Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1036 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [10]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - There is no specific content about the cost - side analysis other than the mention of glass production profit, but no detailed data is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 222, with an operating rate of 75.92%, and the daily melting volume is 15.91 tons, both at historically low levels for the same period. Influenced by policies such as "anti - involution" and environmental protection, there has been capacity clearance in the float glass industry, and production losses have occurred due to "coal - to - gas" conversion in the Shahe area and cold repairs in the industry [21][23]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on consuming raw glass inventory [4]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.136 million weight boxes, a decrease of 4.03% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [42]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows production, consumption, and other data from 2017 to 2024E. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, and the production growth rate is 3.94%, while the consumption growth rate is - 1.15% [43]. 3.8 Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Under the influence of "anti - involution" and environmental protection policies, there has been capacity clearance in the float glass industry, and production losses have occurred due to "coal - to - gas" conversion in the Shahe area and cold repairs in the industry [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The main logic is that glass supply has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, the downstream's phased replenishment has ended, and the glass factory's inventory has increased. It is expected that the glass market will operate in a weak and volatile manner at a low level. The risk point is that the intensity of the "anti - involution" policy may exceed expectations [3].

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货21670，基差-110，贴水期货，偏空。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周跌239吨至 113335吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，宏观情绪好转，铝价偏强运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 每日观点 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日现货 | 地 ...

Report Title PTA&MEG Morning Report - November 13, 2025 [1] Core Views - PTA is expected to fluctuate strongly following the cost side in the short term, with attention to device changes [5]. - MEG is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with obvious upside pressure [7]. Summary by Section 1. PTA Daily View - **Fundamentals**: PTA futures closed slightly lower yesterday, with a light trading atmosphere in the spot market and fluctuating spot basis. The expected price will follow the cost side to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4592, and the basis of the 01 contract is -78, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a neutral situation [5]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 4.09 days, an increase of 0.06 days compared to the previous period, which is bearish [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, which is bearish [5]. 2. MEG Daily View - **Fundamentals**: On Wednesday, the ethylene glycol market price was sorted out at a low level, and the spot basis weakened. The futures price fluctuated widely at night [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 3953, and the basis of the 01 contract is 62, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Inventory**: The ethylene glycol port inventory in East China has risen to around 660,000 tons, and there is still room for further accumulation in the short term, which is bearish [7]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [8]. - **Main Position**: The net long position is decreasing, which is bullish [7]. 3. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Weilian Chemical's 2.5 million - ton capacity reduced its load, and Ineos' 1.1 million - ton and Dushan Energy's 2.5 million - ton capacities stopped production [9]. - **Negative Factors**: Yisheng Dalian's 3.75 - million - ton capacity restored its load, and Zhongtai's 1.2 million - ton capacity increased its load to 70% [9]. 4. Price - **Spot Prices**: The price of naphtha CFR Japan increased by 9 to 584.5 dollars/ton; the price of p - xylene (PX) CFR China Taiwan decreased by 17 to 824 dollars/ton; the price of PTA remained unchanged at 4282 yuan/ton; the price of MEG remained unchanged at 3942 yuan/ton [12]. - **Futures Prices**: TA01 increased by 22 to 4670 yuan/ton; EG01 increased by 16 to 3891 yuan/ton [12]. 5. Inventory Analysis - **PTA**: The factory inventory available days in China are presented in a long - term data chart [40]. - **MEG**: The port inventory in East China is presented in a long - term data chart [40]. 6. Profit - **PTA Processing Fee**: It decreased by 421.295 to 18.18 yuan/ton [12]. - **MEG Profits**: The profits of various production methods such as naphtha - based MEG all decreased [12]. - **Polyester Product Profits**: The profits of POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester staple fiber showed different degrees of change [12].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels. The industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved. In the short term, soda ash is expected to trade in a range [2][5]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the soda ash market. Positive factors include the low - level stabilization and recovery of downstream glass supply, which increases the demand for soda ash. Negative factors include the significant expansion of soda ash production capacity since 2023, high industry production, and the reduction in heavy - alkali downstream photovoltaic glass production, leading to weaker demand for soda ash [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant production is at a high level, and the second - phase project of Yuangxing is expected to be put into operation before the end of the year, with overall supply expected to be abundant. There are supply disturbances in downstream float glass, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. Soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high for the same period [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,160 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2601 is 1,214 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 54 yuan, indicating that the futures price is higher than the spot price [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 171,420 tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [2][34]. - **Market**: The price is trading below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to trade in a range in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influence Factors - **Positive Factors**: The low - level stabilization and recovery of downstream glass supply increase the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high for the same period. The reduction in heavy - alkali downstream photovoltaic glass production leads to weaker demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Main Logic - The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Shahe Low - End Price | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,215 yuan/ton | 1,170 yuan/ton | - 45 yuan | | Current Value | 1,214 yuan/ton | 1,160 yuan/ton | - 54 yuan | | Change Rate | - 0.08% | - 0.85% | 20.00% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 103.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the co - production process in East China is - 212 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.67%. The weekly production of soda ash is 74,680 tons, including 41,480 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, with production at a historical high [18][20]. - **Production Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.7 Demand - **Production and Sales Ratio**: The weekly production and sales ratio of soda ash is 98.36% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15,910 tons, with an operating rate of 75.92% [27]. 3.8 Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 171,420 tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [34]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the UR (urea) contract will show a volatile trend today. The industrial demand for urea is neutral, while the agricultural demand is on the rise. International urea prices are strong, and the export expectations have been realized, which boosts the market sentiment. However, the domestic market still has an obvious oversupply situation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rates have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. On the demand side, agricultural demand has increased due to weather conditions, while industrial demand is moderately weak. The operating rate of compound fertilizers is neutral year - on - year, and the operating rate of melamine has declined. The large price difference between domestic and international markets has led to an increase in export volume, and export expectations are gradually being realized, which boosts the market sentiment. The domestic urea market remains in an oversupply situation. The spot price of the delivery product is 1600 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -55, with a premium/discount ratio of -3.4%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.657 million tons (-0.7), suggesting a bearish outlook [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and short positions are increasing, suggesting a bearish outlook [4]. - **Expectation**: Considering the industrial demand being neutral, agricultural demand rising, international urea prices being strong, and export expectations being realized, which boosts the market sentiment, but with the obvious domestic oversupply, the UR contract is expected to show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Leverage and Risks**: The bullish factors include strong international prices and rising agricultural demand. The bearish factor is the domestic oversupply. The main logic is based on international prices and domestic demand marginal changes [5]. Spot and Futures Market and Inventory | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1600 (-10), Shandong spot is 1600 (-10), Henan spot is 1610 (0), and FOB China is 2740 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 01 contract is 1655 (15), the basis is -55 (-25), UR01 is 1655 (15), UR05 is 1728 (11), and UR09 is 1748 (10) [6]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 6958 (146), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.657 million tons (0), UR manufacturer inventory is 1.578 million tons (0), and UR port inventory is 97,000 tons (0) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependency | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9] |

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | | 1万吨 ， | | 环比有所减少9 . | 00% 。 | | | | . | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8 | . | 2万吨 ， | 环比减少5 | 74% . . | 需求持续低迷 | . | | | | | | | | | 多晶硅库存为25 . | 9万吨 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年11月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 黄金 1、基本面：美国ADP就业数据疲软，数据公布后金价V型反转；美国三大股指收盘涨 跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌 5.25个基点报4.062%；美元指数跌0.14%报99.48，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报 7.1225；COMEX黄金期货涨0.27%报4133.20美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货948.88，现货946.23，基差-2.65，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单89616千克，增加1800千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多减；偏多 6、预期：今日关注美联储和欧央行委员密集讲话、欧元集团会议、加拿大央行决 议。美国ADP就业数据疲软，但金银价格在数据公布后开始大幅回落，后又因降息预 期升温，金价回升。沪金溢价继续在0-1元/克震荡。美国结束关门预期乐观 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The high - sulfur fuel oil downstream demand in the Singapore market has been stable, but recent incremental supply from the Middle East has led to an oversupply, putting pressure on the downstream premium. The market is currently in a state where supply - side geopolitical risks and neutral demand co - exist. The expected end of the US government shutdown has boosted market risk appetite, and the increasing concerns about Russian energy exports will support fuel oil to some extent. FU2601 is expected to trade in the 2690 - 2730 range, and LU2601 in the 3300 - 3340 range [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: High - sulfur fuel oil downstream demand is stable, but supply from the Middle East has made the market oversupplied; the basis shows that the spot is nearly flat to the futures; Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 140,000 barrels to 21.069 million barrels in the week of November 5; the price is near the 20 - day line which is flat; high - sulfur main positions are short - increasing, while low - sulfur main positions are long - increasing. The expected end of the US government shutdown and concerns about Russian energy exports will support fuel oil. FU2601: 2690 - 2730, LU2601: 3300 - 3340 [3]. - **Futures Quotes**: The current price of the FU main contract is 2675, down 8 or 0.30% from the previous value; the LU main contract is 3264, down 4 or 0.12%. The FU basis is - 10, up 9 or 47.35%, and the LU basis is 18, down 17 or 48.63% [5]. - **Spot Quotes**: The current price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil is 469.00, down 1.00 or 0.21%; Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil is 479.00, up 1.00 or 0.21%. Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 361.65, down 1.91 or 0.53%; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 448.52, down 4.98 or 1.10%. Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil is 331.38, down 1.53 or 0.46%; Singapore diesel is 694.91, down 9.57 or 1.36% [6]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Focus - **Positive Factors**: Russia has extended fuel export restrictions, and the cancellation of the US - Russia talks and sanctions against Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified [4]. - **Market Drivers**: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on November 5 was 21.069 million barrels, an increase of 140,000 barrels [3][8]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from August 27 to November 5 shows fluctuations, with an increase of 140,000 barrels in the week of November 5 to 21.069 million barrels [8]. 3.5 Spread Data - The report presents a chart of the high - low sulfur futures spread, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The cost is expected to weaken, and the supply is expected to increase next week. The current demand may remain weak, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4547 - 4597 [7][12]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - moving inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - The basis on November 11 showed that the spot price was higher than the futures price, which was neutral. The inventory situation was mixed, with the factory inventory decreasing and the social inventory increasing, also being neutral. The disk showed a bearish signal as the MA20 was downward and the 01 contract futures price closed below the MA20. The main position was net short with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [7][9]. - The main logic was the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand. The main risk points included the implementation of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and the cost support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide method [12][13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In October 2025, the PVC production was 2128120 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The calcium carbide method enterprise production was 345350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.89%, and the ethylene method enterprise production was 146770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63%. The supply pressure increased this week, and the maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with a slight increase in production scheduling [5]. 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream start - up rate was 49.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93 percentage points, but higher than the historical average. Different downstream sectors had different start - up rate changes, with some decreasing and some remaining flat or increasing. The shipping cost was expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price was competitive, but the current demand might remain weak [5]. 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 769.4 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 0.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 465.05 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 14.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2176.35 yuan/ton, with the profit decreasing by 1.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling might be under pressure [6]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The factory inventory was 334596 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%. The calcium carbide method factory inventory was 250396 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.78%, and the ethylene method factory inventory was 84200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63%. The social inventory was 545700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.20%. The production enterprise inventory days were 5.5 days, a month - on - month decrease of 2.65% [9]. 3.2.5 Position - The main position was net short, and the short position increased, showing a bearish trend [7]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provided detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices, price changes, spreads, and inventory data of different types of PVC and related products [14][15]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - It included the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures [17][20][21]. 3.5 PVC Fundamentals 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide Method - Related - It covered the price, cost - profit, start - up rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and their impact on PVC production [26][29][31][33]. 3.5.2 PVC Supply - It showed the capacity utilization rate, production profit, and production volume trends of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production [38][39][40]. 3.5.3 PVC Demand - It analyzed the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, and downstream start - up rates of PVC, as well as the relationship between PVC demand and real estate and infrastructure investment [43][45][47]. 3.5.4 PVC Inventory - It presented the inventory data of the exchange, calcium carbide method factory, ethylene method factory, and social inventory, as well as the production enterprise inventory days [54][55]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Method - It included the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method [56][57]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It showed the monthly import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export data of PVC, presenting the supply - demand trends [60].