交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年8月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14800，基差-920 偏空 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格20日线上运行 中性 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，短多交易 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不如预期、中美贸易摩擦 现货价格 23年全乳胶，不可用于交割，8月21日现货价格上涨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China, with the export policy not being relaxed beyond expectations. The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate today, as the international urea price is relatively strong, and the domestic market shows a clear oversupply situation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been fluctuating recently. After the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, the market returned to fundamentals. On the 19th, rumors of increased urea exports to India during the China - India foreign ministers' meeting led to a rise in futures prices. Currently, the daily production and operating rate are still at relatively high levels, and the overall inventory is high. In terms of demand, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are both low, and agricultural demand is weak. The overall supply of urea in China still significantly exceeds demand, and although the export profit has declined, it remains strong, while the export policy has not been relaxed beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1820 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 56, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.1%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.457 million tons (-0.2), suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate today. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been relaxed beyond expectations, and the overall supply in the domestic market still significantly exceeds demand [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: The bullish factor is the strong international price, while the bearish factors are the high operating rate and daily production, and the weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1820 (-30), the Shandong spot price is 1820 (-40), the Henan spot price is 1840 (0), and the FOB China price is 2942 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1764 (-12), the UR05 contract is 1797 (-13), and the UR09 contract is 1737 (-14). The basis of the UR2601 contract is 56 (-18), with a premium - discount ratio of 3.1% [4][6]. Inventory The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.457 million tons (-0.2), including 0.968 million tons in factory inventory and 0.489 million tons in port inventory. The number of warehouse receipts is 3573 (0) [4][6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with capacity growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 11.0% in 2025E. - Production has also generally increased, and the apparent consumption has shown an upward trend. The import dependence has gradually decreased over the years [10].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are neutral due to carbon - neutral policies controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market, along with volatile short - term macro sentiment. The basis shows a neutral state with a spot price of 20690 and a basis of 100, indicating a premium over the futures. The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 7093 tons to 120653 tons, also neutral. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is moving downwards, a neutral signal. The main positions are net long but the long positions are decreasing, showing a slightly bullish tendency. In the long run, carbon - neutral policies will drive the transformation of the aluminum industry and benefit aluminum prices, but the US expanding steel and aluminum tariffs creates a situation where bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, leading to an oscillating aluminum price [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Daily View - Fundamentals: Carbon - neutral policies control capacity expansion, downstream demand is not strong, the real - estate market remains weak, and short - term macro sentiment is volatile; neutral [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 20690, basis is 100, premium over futures; neutral [2]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory increased by 7093 tons to 120653 tons; neutral [2]. - Disk: Closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is moving downwards; neutral [2]. - Main Positions: Main net long positions, long positions decreasing; slightly bullish [2]. - Expectation: Carbon - neutral policies will drive the transformation of the aluminum industry and benefit aluminum prices in the long run, but the US expanding steel and aluminum tariffs creates a situation where bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, and the aluminum price will oscillate [2]. b. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish Factors: Carbon - neutral policies control capacity expansion; geopolitical disturbances between Russia and Ukraine affect Russian aluminum supply; interest rate cuts [3]. - Bearish Factors: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products is cancelled [3]. - Logic: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3]. c. Daily Summary - Spot Prices: Shanghai's yesterday's spot price was 70770, down 375; Nanchu's was 70690, down 450; today's Yangtze River's was 70870, down 400 [4]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 699 to 70798 tons; LME inventory decreased by 425 to 74750 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory (weekly) increased by 29728 to 136300 tons [4]. d. Supply - Demand Balance | Time | Production (10,000 tons) | Net Imports (10,000 tons) | Apparent Consumption (10,000 tons) | Actual Consumption (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Balance (10,000 tons) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2018 | 3609 | 7.03 | 3615.03 | 3662.63 | - 47.61 | | 2019 | 3542.48 | - 0.64 | 3541.84 | 3610.44 | - 68.61 | | 2020 | 3712.44 | 105.78 | 3818.22 | 3816.92 | 1.3 | | 2021 | 3849.2 | 150.33 | 3994.63 | 4008.83 | - 14.2 | | 2022 | 4007.33 | 46.55 | 4053.88 | 4083.86 | - 29.98 | | 2023 | 4151.3 | 139.24 | 4290.51 | 4294.81 | - 4.31 | | 2024 | 4312.27 | 196.16 | 4502.5 | 4487.5 | 15 | [22]

Group 1: Report Core View - The import volume of white sugar has increased significantly. Due to good domestic sales, the spot price is firm, and the domestic market trend is stronger than the international market. The main contract 01 of Zhengzhou sugar is under short - term pressure at the 5700 mark and is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5650 - 5700 intraday [5][9] - The bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and Coca - Cola in the US changing its formula to use sucrose. The bearish factors are the increase in global white sugar production and the global supply surplus in the new year [7] Group 2: Industry Data Summary Fundamental Data - SCA Brasil estimates that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season will be 39.1 million tons, a 3% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons; the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [4] - The basis of Liuzhou spot is 342 (for the 01 contract), with a premium over futures. As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar season was 1.61 million tons. The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4][6] Supply - demand Forecasts from Different Institutions | Institution | Supply - demand Balance (10,000 tons) | Global Production (10,000 tons) | Global Consumption (10,000 tons) | Inventory - consumption Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Green Pool | Surplus 270 | 20,200 (second - highest in history) | 19,830 | Not specified | | USDA | Surplus 1,139.7 | 18,931.8 | 17,792.1 | 23% | | CZarnikow | Surplus 780 | 18,720 | Not specified | Not specified | | Datagro | Surplus 258 | Not specified | Not specified | Not specified | [36] China's Sugar Supply - demand Balance Sheet | Indicator | 2024/25 (August Estimate) | 2023/24 | 2025/26 (July Forecast) | 2025/26 (August Forecast) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Sugar - crop Sown Area (1000 hectares) | 1262 | 1396 | 1440 | 1440 | | Sugar - crop Harvested Area (1000 hectares) | 1262 | 1396 | 1440 | 1440 | | Sugar - crop Yield per Hectare (ton per hectares) | 60.70 | 58.65 | 59.70 | 59.70 | | Sugar Production (10,000 tons) | 996 | 1116 | 1120 | 1120 | | Import (10,000 tons) | 475 | 500 | 500 | 500 | | Consumption (10,000 tons) | 1550 | 1580 | 1590 | 1590 | | Balance Change (10,000 tons) | - 94 | 20 | 12 | 12 | | International Sugar Price (cents per pound) | 21.70 | 15.5 - 20 | 16.5 - 21.5 | 16.5 - 21.5 | | Domestic Sugar Price (yuan per ton) | 6492 | 5900 - 6200 | 5800 - 6500 | 5800 - 6500 | [38] Imported Raw Sugar Processing Cost (50% Tariff) | Month | ICE Raw Sugar Average Price (cents per pound) | Refined Tax - included Cost (yuan per ton) | Key Market Events | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | July 2024 | 18.5 - 20.7 | 6330 - 6520 | Weak Brazilian crushing data, but global production increase expectation suppresses prices | | September 2024 | 18.94 | 6390 | Higher - than - expected crushing volume in central - southern Brazil, cost slightly rebounds | | January 2025 | 17.70 (far - month contract) | 5990 | Raw sugar falls to a four - year low, import window opens | | June 2025 | 16.0 - 17.0 | 5650 - 5700 | High sugar - making ratio in Brazil, clear production increase in Thailand, cost further declines | | July 2025 | 16.35 | 5600 - 5650 | Concerns about decreased yield in Brazil briefly support prices, but supply - demand relaxation trend remains unchanged | [45] Group 3: Main Position Analysis - The main position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions. The main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overnight, US EIA crude oil and gasoline inventories both decreased more than expected, which boosted short - term crude oil demand and led to a stable recovery in prices. Geopolitically, according to Russian sources, India has not largely abandoned Russian oil, and the Russia - Ukraine war negotiations are ongoing with no significant progress. Short - term oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with prices in the range of 483 - 493, and long - term investors are advised to hold long positions [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2510, the fundamentals are neutral as Russia expects to continue supplying oil to India despite US warnings, US inventories show a mixed picture, and Fed officials are concerned about inflation. The basis is bullish with spot prices at par with futures. Inventory data is bullish as US API and EIA crude inventories decreased more than expected. The disk is bearish with the 20 - day moving average downward and prices below it. The main positions are bearish as both WTI and Brent crude main positions' long positions decreased. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate in the 483 - 493 range, and long - term investors should hold long positions [3]. 2. Recent News - At the July Fed monetary policy meeting, most officials emphasized that inflation risks outweighed concerns about the labor market. Two high - level officials opposed maintaining interest rates and hoped to cut rates due to concerns about the labor market. However, subsequent data on core consumer inflation and producer prices provided evidence for those opposing rapid rate cuts. Also, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the EU plans to prepare a new round of sanctions against Russia in September. There are discussions about a possible meeting between Putin and Zelensky, but Russia has not confirmed Putin's participation [5]. 3. Multi - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: US secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; extension of the Sino - US tariff exemption period [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: A potential cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict; continuous tension in US trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, and the risk of trade tariff issues is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, supply is expected to increase after the peak season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, and Oman crude increased by 1.60%, 1.52%, and 0.94% respectively, while SC crude decreased by 0.64% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of various types of crude oil such as UK Brent, WTI, Oman, etc., all increased, with Oman crude rising by 1.12% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: US API crude inventory as of August 15 decreased by 241.7 million barrels, and EIA inventory decreased by 601.4 million barrels, both more than expected. Cushing area inventory increased by 41.9 million barrels. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 476.7 million barrels [3]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude**: As of August 12, the net long position decreased by 25,087 [15]. - **Brent Crude**: As of August 12, the net long position decreased by 34,430 [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no clear industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Singapore's high - sulfur fuel oil has a supply surplus in floating and fixed storage, and the surplus is expected to continue. The fuel oil is expected to oscillate at a low level. FU2510 will operate in the range of 2690 - 2740, and LU2511 will operate in the range of 3430 - 3480 [3]. - The market risk sentiment has subsided, and the fuel oil is expected to follow the low - level oscillation of crude oil. The行情 is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand [3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamental situation of fuel oil shows a mix of signals. The supply is in surplus, the inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day line, and the high - sulfur main position is short - biased while the low - sulfur is long - biased. The fuel oil is expected to oscillate at a low level [3]. - The previous day's closing prices of FU and LU futures, their price changes, and the changes in basis are presented. The FU futures price increased by 0.78%, and the LU futures price decreased by 0.17%. The basis of FU decreased by 33.45%, and that of LU increased by 16.04% [5]. - The previous and current prices of various fuel oil spot products in different regions, along with their price changes and amplitudes, are provided. For example, the price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 1.11% [6]. 2. Multi - Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the possible intensification of sanctions against Russia. Bearish factors are that the optimism on the demand side remains to be verified and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory on August 13 was 2263.9 million barrels, an increase of 189 million barrels compared to the previous period, which is a bearish signal [3][8]. - The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 125 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 94 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [3]. 4. Inventory Data - The inventory data of Singapore fuel oil from June 4 to August 13 shows fluctuations, with an overall increase in the latest period [8]. 5. Spread Data There is no specific spread data analysis in the text, only a graph of the high - low sulfur futures spread is mentioned [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Recent major events have limited impact, with geopolitical and trade factors having little effect, and the full - fledged interest rate cut expectation may have limited driving force. The market focuses on the Fed's independence status at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting [48]. - Domestic commodities and the stock market are strong, pushing up the prices of gold and silver. With the marginal weakening of China's economic data in July, the expectation of policy intensification has risen again [48]. - Global central bank gold purchases have declined, with limited supportive effect [48]. - The pattern of silver being stronger than gold is hard to change for now. If the Fed restarts the interest rate cut cycle, it may change [48]. - Gold and silver prices are waiting for new driving factors. The current support from interest rate cut expectations, inflation expectations, and the US debt crisis remains unchanged, and the prices will likely continue to fluctuate [48]. - The Russia - Ukraine peace talks may make progress, but Trump's remarks add uncertainty. If a permanent cease - fire agreement is reached, gold and silver prices may decline [48]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The report presents multiple charts on gold and silver price - related data, including the spread between Shanghai gold 12 - 6 and Shanghai silver 12 - 6, the US dollar index, the US - China exchange rate, the US 10 - year Treasury yield, the inflation expectation, the spot ratio of London and Shanghai gold and silver, and the performance of major global stock indices and gold and silver spot prices [14][17][20][22]. 3.2 Logical Analysis - Multiple factors influence gold and silver prices. Domestic "anti - involution" policies have led to the explosion of domestic commodity sectors, with silver prices being affected by the photovoltaic industry, resulting in a situation where silver is stronger than gold. Trade disputes have less market attention, and the weakening trend of US dollar assets has been broken. The significant increase in the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the Fed's political pressure drive up gold and silver prices. The market expects two interest rate cuts this year, and the focus is on the Fed's independence. The global economy cooled in July, and any cooling of US economic data will boost the interest rate cut expectation. China's economic data in July showed a slowdown in some aspects, with a differentiation between domestic and external demand [25]. - The probability of an interest rate cut in September is 84.7%. The probability distribution of different target interest rate ranges at different time points is provided, and the number of expected interest rate cuts has changed over time, decreasing to 2 times on May 18 and July 22, remaining at 2 times on August 15, and increasing to 3 times after July 1 [28][31][32][34][35]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - A large amount of US macro - economic data from January 2024 to August 2025 is presented, covering GDP, foreign trade, economic sentiment indices, industrial, real estate, public and private sectors, employment, and inflation data [27]. 3.4 Position Data - For the top 20 positions in Shanghai gold, on August 15, 2025, the long - position volume decreased by 0.03% compared to the previous day, the short - position volume decreased by 0.06%, and the net position increased by 0.07%. For the top 20 positions in Shanghai silver, on August 15, 2025, the long - position volume decreased by 3.82%, the short - position volume decreased by 3.22%, and the net position decreased by 9.92% [38][41]. - Gold ETF positions increased fluctuantly, while silver ETF positions decreased fluctuantly, and the prices of both were in a fluctuating state. Shanghai gold inventory continued to increase, with the basis in July 1 - 2 yuan/gram higher than the same period. Arbitrage trading pushed up the inventory. COMEX gold inventory fluctuated and remained at the highest level in the past 5 years. Shanghai silver inventory decreased and was higher than the same period last year, while COMEX silver inventory remained at an absolute high [42][45][46]. 3.5 Summary - The impact of major events on gold and silver prices is limited. The interest rate cut expectation has limited driving force. The market focuses on the Fed's independence. Domestic economic policies and the performance of the commodity and stock markets affect gold and silver prices. The support from central bank gold purchases is limited. The pattern of silver being stronger than gold may change with the Fed's interest rate cut cycle. Gold and silver prices will likely continue to fluctuate, and the outcome of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks adds uncertainty to gold and silver prices [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are bearish due to high supply pressure and weak demand recovery. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term, and the futures price is predicted to fluctuate within a narrow range. Specifically, the asphalt 2510 contract is expected to oscillate between 3432 - 3476 [7][9] - Bullish factors include relatively high - level crude oil costs providing some support [12] - Bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and increasing expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13] - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high on the supply side, and the demand recovery is weak on the demand side [14] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the planned domestic asphalt production is 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. The sample capacity utilization rate this week is 35.2349%, a 1.797 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. The sample enterprise output is 588,000 tons, a 5.38% increase month - on - month, and the device maintenance volume is estimated at 583,000 tons, a 5.35% decrease month - on - month. The refineries increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but the supply pressure may decrease next week [7] - **Demand Side**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 32.9%, a 0.04 - percentage - point increase month - on - month; the building asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 17.1004%, a 1.23 - percentage - point increase month - on - month; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 30.5%, a 1.50 - percentage - point increase month - on - month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 29.7%, a 2.20 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7] - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 498.38 yuan/ton, a 19.60% increase month - on - month. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit is 904.0171 yuan/ton, a 6.90% increase month - on - month. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8] - **Other Aspects**: On August 20, the Shandong spot price is 3530 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 76 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The social inventory is 1.343 million tons, a 1.75% decrease month - on - month; the in - factory inventory is 711,000 tons, a 4.71% increase month - on - month; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 190,000 tons, a 24.00% decrease month - on - month. The MA20 is downward, and the 10 - contract futures price closes below the MA20. The main positions are net short, and the short positions increase [10] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the previous day's market overview data, including the values, previous values, and percentage changes of various contracts (such as 01 - 12 contracts), inventory (weekly inventory of social, factory, and port diluted asphalt), production, output, and profit - related indicators [17] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt [19][20] - **Spread Analysis**: It includes the spread trends of the main contracts (1 - 6, 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil, the crude oil cracking spread, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [22][25][28][32] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - The report presents the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt [35][36] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit - spread trend between coking and asphalt [37][40] - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It includes the weekly shipment volume, domestic diluted asphalt port inventory, weekly and monthly production, the price of Venezuelan Ma Rui crude oil and its monthly production, local refinery asphalt production, weekly开工率, maintenance loss volume estimation, etc. [43][45][48][52][55][58][60] - **Inventory Analysis**: It covers the exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, in - factory inventory, in - factory inventory inventory ratio, etc. [63][67][71] - **Import - Export Analysis**: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price - spread trend of South Korean asphalt [74][77][79] - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion amount year - on - year), downstream mechanical demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, roller sales), asphalt开工率 (heavy - traffic asphalt, classified by use), and downstream开工情况 (shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, etc.) [80][83][86][90][95][98][101] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from August 2025 to September 2024, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production [106][107]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Supply - side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 341,725 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.67%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 139,410 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with a significant increase in scheduled production [7]. - **Demand - side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 36.91%, unchanged from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 32.96%, a month - on - month increase of 0.869 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 72.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.06 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 77.97%, a month - on - month increase of 0.429 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - **Cost - side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 230.8115 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 8.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 539.6422 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 10.30%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,641.85 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit decrease of 0.00%, higher than the historical average, and scheduled production may increase [8]. - **Overall Outlook**: The cost of calcium carbide method is strengthening, the cost of ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is strengthening. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with an increase in scheduled production. The overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,958 - 5,058 [9]. - **Leveraging Factors**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [12]. - **Restraining Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and poor recovery of domestic demand [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PVC Market Overview - **Price Changes**: Various PVC - related prices showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,930 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20%. The price of some contracts also had corresponding changes [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: Factory inventory was 326,702 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.10%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 250,202 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.68%. Ethylene factory inventory was 76,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%. Social inventory was 492,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.49%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.4 days, a month - on - month decrease of 3.57% [10][15]. - **Operating Rate Changes**: The overall downstream operating rate and the operating rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) had different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [8][15]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - **Base - price Trend**: On August 20, the base price of the 01 contract was - 78 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price [10]. - **Difference Analysis**: The differences between different contracts (such as 1 - 9, 5 - 9) showed different trends over time [24]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: - **Lancoke**: The price, cost, profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output of Lancoke showed different trends over different time periods [27]. - **Calcium Carbide**: The price, cost, profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production of calcium carbide also had different trends [29]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: The prices and production volumes of liquid chlorine and raw salt changed over time [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price, cost, profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, and inventory of caustic soda showed different trends [33][36]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: The capacity utilization rate, profit, production, and maintenance volume of calcium carbide and ethylene methods in PVC production had different trends over time [37][39][41]. - **Demand Trend**: The sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC showed different trends over time. The investment, construction, new construction, sales, and completion areas in the real estate market also had an impact on PVC demand. Additionally, social financing scale increments, M2 increments, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment growth rates were also analyzed [43][45][47][52][54]. - **Inventory Situation**: The exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises showed different trends over time [57]. - **Ethylene Method - Related**: The import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, price differences of ethylene method FOB and vinyl chloride import showed different trends over time [59]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import of PVC in different months of 2024 and 2025 were presented [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply production schedule has increased and is near the historical average level, while the demand recovery is at a low level. The cost support has risen, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 8195 - 8585 for the 2511 contract [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply production schedule will increase in the short - term and is expected to decline in the medium - term. The overall demand shows a continuous recovery trend, and the cost support has weakened. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 50370 - 53380 for the 2511 contract [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 87,000 tons, a 3.57% increase compared to the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% increase compared to the previous week, and the demand has increased, especially in polysilicon [6]. - Inventory: The inventory is 242,000 tons, at a high level. The silicone inventory is 54,300 tons, at a low level. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 49,400 tons [6]. - Cost: The sample oxygen - passing 553 production in Xinjiang has a loss of 2939 yuan/ton, and the cost support has weakened during the flood season [6]. - Market indicators: The spot price in East China is 9050 yuan/ton, the basis of the 11 - contract is 660 yuan/ton, the social inventory is 545,000 tons, the sample enterprise inventory is 171,150 tons, the main port inventory is 117,000 tons, the 11 - contract futures price closes below the MA20, and the main position is net short [6][17]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 29,300 tons, a 0.34% decrease compared to the previous week. The production schedule for August is predicted to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 12.1GW, a 0.66% increase compared to the previous week, and the inventory was 198,000 tons, a 3.61% increase compared to the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The battery cell and component production also have different trends in output, inventory, and profit [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 35,850 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 10,150 yuan/ton [9]. - Market indicators: The basis of the 11 - contract is - 4875 yuan/ton, the weekly inventory is 242,000 tons, the 11 - contract futures price closes above the MA20, and the main position is net long [9]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of various contracts have declined to different extents, with the decline rate ranging from 2.56% to 3.75%. The spot prices of different types of silicon in East China have also decreased, with the decline rate between 0.49% and 1.63% [17]. - The inventory of different regions and enterprises has different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing. The production and capacity utilization rate of different regions also show different changes [17]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components of different models are mostly stable. The inventory, output, and export of polysilicon - related products have different degrees of change [19]. 3.3 Other Aspects - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: Show the historical trends of the basis of industrial silicon main contracts and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon in East China [21]. - **Inventory**: Include the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in delivery warehouses, ports, sample enterprises, and registered warehouse receipts [25]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization Rate**: Present the historical trends of industrial silicon production, capacity utilization rate, and production of different specifications [28][29][30]. - **Cost - Sample Region Trends**: Show the historical trends of cost and profit for industrial silicon production in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang [35]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Illustrate the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance situations of industrial silicon and polysilicon [36][39][62]. - **Downstream Trends** - **Organosilicon**: Involve the price, production, cost, profit, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [42][44][48]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Include the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends in the automotive and wheel hub sectors [51][54][56]. - **Polysilicon - Related**: Cover the cost, price, inventory, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, photovoltaic accessories, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation [59][65][68][71][74][77][78].