1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, while the demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased slightly. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8450 - 8820 yuan/ton [6]. - For polysilicon, the short - term supply side production scheduling has increased, and it is expected to回调 in the medium term. The demand side shows continuous recovery. The cost support has weakened. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50095 - 52965 yuan/ton [10]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 87,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.57% [6]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 80,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.56%. The demand has increased [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.36%. The sample enterprise inventory was 171,150 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.65%. The main port inventory was 117,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84% [6]. - Basis: On August 21, the basis of the 11 - contract was 415 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The net short position of the main contract decreased [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 29,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%. The estimated production scheduling for August is 130,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.76% compared with the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 12.29GW, a month - on - month increase of 1.57%. The inventory was 174,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.07%. The production of silicon wafers is currently in a loss state [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 249,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.89%, at a historically high level [11]. - Basis: On August 21, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 2530 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20 [11]. - Main Position: The net long position of the main contract decreased [10]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of multiple contracts increased, such as the 01 - contract increasing by 2.58%, and the 02 - contract increasing by 2.82% [17]. - Spot prices of some varieties remained unchanged, such as the spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 silicon remaining at 9050 yuan/ton [17]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory decreased by 0.37%, and the sample enterprise inventory increased by 0.65% [17]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures prices of some contracts decreased, such as the 06 - contract decreasing by 0.72% [19]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends, with some prices remaining unchanged and some having small increases or decreases [19]. - Inventory: The total weekly inventory increased by 2.89% [19]. 3.3 Downstream Market Analysis 3.3.1 Organic Silicon - Production: The daily DMC production was 49,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.20%. The daily capacity utilization rate was 75.05%, remaining unchanged [17]. - Price: The daily DMC price was 11,000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The daily profit was 392 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [17]. - Inventory: The monthly DMC inventory was 54,300 tons, a significant decrease compared with the previous period [17]. 3.3.2 Aluminum Alloy - Production: The monthly output of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots was 111,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.28%. The monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 625,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63% [17]. - Price: The daily SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.49% [17]. - Inventory: The weekly aluminum alloy ingot social inventory was 49,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.07% [18]. 3.3.3 Polysilicon (Downstream) - Silicon Wafers: The weekly production was 12.9GW, a month - on - month increase of 5.74%. The weekly inventory was 26.5GW, a month - on - month decrease of 22.06% [19]. - Battery Cells: The weekly inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories was 5.81GW, a month - on - month increase of 16.67%. The monthly output was 58.19GW, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% [19]. - Components: The monthly output was 47.1GW, a month - on - month increase of 1.73%. The domestic inventory decreased by 51.73%, and the European inventory decreased by 2.30% [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil stabilized, oscillated, and rebounded. The US imposed sanctions on a batch of Iranian - related enterprises, increasing geopolitical concerns. The Russia - Ukraine negotiation still takes time, and the uncertainties during this period drive up oil prices. - Some Fed governors' speeches reduce the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut. The market continues to focus on Powell's speech. Goldman Sachs believes Powell's speech on Friday won't clearly indicate a September rate cut but may convey support for it. - After technical repair, oil prices still face significant fluctuations. Short - term, it is expected to run with high - volatility oscillations, operating in the range of 488 - 498. Long - term, it is recommended to hold long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Some Fed presidents are lukewarm about the possibility of a rate cut next month. The US may double tariffs on India. Angola's July oil production fell below 1 million barrels per day for the first time in two and a half years [3]. - **Basis**: On August 21, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $69.78 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.38 per barrel. The basis was 33.86 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 15 decreased by 2.417 million barrels, and the EIA inventory decreased by 6.014 million barrels. Cushing's inventory increased by 419,000 barrels. The Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 4.767 million barrels as of August 21 [3]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the average [3]. - **Main Positions**: As of August 12, both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions were long, but the long positions decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term, it will operate in the 488 - 498 range. Long - term, hold long positions [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Three Fed officials cooled the expectation of a rate cut next month. The market is waiting for Powell's speech. Currently, the interest - rate futures price implies a 70.4% probability of a September rate cut and about a 47 - basis - point rate cut for the year [5]. - Putin requires Ukraine to abandon the entire Donbass region, give up the ambition to join NATO, remain neutral, and ban Western troops from entering the country. The Russia - US summit mainly discussed the compromise plan for the Ukraine issue [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US imposed secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and the Sino - US tariff exemption period was extended again [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: There is a possibility of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short - term, geopolitical conflicts decrease, and trade tariff risks increase. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil increased by 0.83, 0.81, 4.70, and 0.98 respectively, with increases of 1.24%, 1.29%, 0.98%, and 1.43% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oil increased by 0.65, 0.81, 0.96, 0.88, and 1.05 respectively, with increases of 0.96%, 1.29%, 1.39%, 1.37%, and 1.52% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 15 decreased by 2.417 million barrels, and the EIA inventory decreased by 6.014 million barrels [3][10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of August 12, the main long positions decreased by 25,087 [3][15]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of August 12, the main long positions decreased [3][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating Due to the lack of relevant content, this part is skipped. Core Viewpoints - The high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore has a supply surplus in floating and fixed storage tanks, and the supply pressure will continue. The fuel oil is expected to oscillate at a low level. FU2510 will operate in the 2690 - 2740 range, and LU2511 will operate in the 3430 - 3480 range. The行情 is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand [3]. - The potential increase in sanctions against Russia is a bullish factor, while the unproven optimism on the demand side and the weak upstream crude oil price are bearish factors [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals show a supply surplus of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, with supply pressure to continue. The basis indicates that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 189 barrels to 2263.9 barrels in the week of August 13. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. The high - sulfur main position is short - held with short positions decreasing, and the low - sulfur main position is long - held with long positions increasing. The fuel oil is expected to oscillate at a low level [3]. - The previous values of FU and LU main - contract futures prices were 2701 and 3452 respectively, and the current values are 2712 and 3461, with increases of 11 and 9, and change rates of 0.41% and 0.26% respectively. The previous values of FU and LU basis were 125 and 94 respectively, and the current values are 134 and 61, with changes of 9 and - 33, and change rates of 7.23% and - 35.12% respectively [5]. - The previous values of spot prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil, Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil, Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil, Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil, and Singapore diesel were 484.00, 505.00, 383.49, 480.50, 364.13, and 608.06 respectively. The current values are 485.00, 505.00, 387.06, 481.50, 367.70, and 618.93 respectively, with increases of 1.00, 0.00, 3.57, 1.00, 3.57, and 10.88 respectively, and change rates of 0.21%, 0.00%, 0.93%, 0.21%, 0.98%, and 1.79% respectively [6]. 2. Multi - Short Attention - Bullish factors include the possible intensification of sanctions against Russia. Bearish factors include the unproven optimism on the demand side and the weak upstream crude oil price. The行情 is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - The fundamentals of fuel oil show a supply surplus of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, with supply pressure to continue. The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The inventory in Singapore increased in the week of August 13. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. The high - sulfur main position is short - held with short positions decreasing, and the low - sulfur main position is long - held with long positions increasing. The fuel oil is expected to oscillate at a low level [3]. 4. Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on August 13 was 2263.9 barrels, an increase of 189 barrels compared to the previous period [3][8]. 5. Spread Data - Due to the lack of relevant content, this part is skipped.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand, with the short - term expected to be mainly in a weak and volatile state [2]. - The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract in the day session was 1306 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1205 yuan/ton, and the main basis was - 101 yuan. Compared with the previous value, the closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.23%, the price in Shahe remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 2.88% [6]. 2. Influencing Factors **Likely Positive Factors** - As the peak summer maintenance period approaches, production will decline [3]. **Likely Negative Factors** - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with industry output at a historically high level [5]. - The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, leading to weaker demand for soda ash [5]. - The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3. Fundamental Analysis **Supply** - The production profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 25.60 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production process is - 41 yuan/ton, showing a recovery from historical lows [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.32%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally [17]. - The weekly production of soda ash is 76.13 tons, including 42.97 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been and are still plans for significant increases in soda ash production capacity, with planned new production capacities of 640 tons, 180 tons, and 750 tons respectively, and the actual new production capacity in 2025 is 100 tons [21]. **Demand** - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.73% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.96 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.34% [27]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the daily melting volume in production continues a significant downward trend [33]. **Inventory** - The national in - factory inventory of soda ash is 191.08 tons, an increase of 0.90% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [36]. **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [37].

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: August 22, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to oscillate today. The "anti-involution" policy-driven gains have subsided, crude oil prices are falling, and while the demand for agricultural films for LLDPE is below expectations, the downstream demand for PP in sectors like pipes and plastic weaving is slightly improving. The industrial inventories for both are neutral [4][7]. Summary by Content LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, in contraction for four consecutive months. The Caixin manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. The "anti-involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but the market has returned to fundamentals after the sentiment cooled. Short-term oil prices are oscillating downward. The overall demand for agricultural films is below expectations, and the film production start-up rate is low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7,230 (+50), with the overall fundamentals being neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -156, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.1%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 564,000 tons (+59,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Main Position**: The main LLDPE position is net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is oscillating. Considering the factors such as the subsiding policy-driven gains, falling crude oil prices, and below-expected agricultural film demand, it is expected that PE will oscillate today [4]. - **Factors**: The bullish factor is cost support, while the bearish factors are weak demand and falling crude oil prices. The main logic is driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [6]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation shows a contraction in the manufacturing PMI. The "anti-involution" policy impact has waned. Short-term oil prices are falling. Downstream demand is gradually entering the peak season, with a slight improvement in the demand for pipes and plastic weaving. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7,030 (-0), with the overall fundamentals being neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -18, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.3%, indicating a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 572,000 tons (-15,000), which is neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a bearish situation [7]. - **Main Position**: The main PP position is net short, with a decrease in short positions, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is oscillating. Given the policy and market conditions, it is expected that PP will oscillate today [7]. - **Factors**: The bullish factor is cost support, while the bearish factors are weak demand and falling crude oil prices. The main logic is driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [9]. Market Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The report provides detailed spot and futures prices for LLDPE and PP, including prices in different regions, changes, and prices of different contracts [10]. - **Inventory Data**: It shows the inventory types and quantities for LLDPE and PP, such as warehouse receipts, comprehensive factory inventories, and social inventories, along with their changes [10]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: The supply and demand balance sheet from 2018 - 2025E shows data on capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other aspects, reflecting the industry's development trends over the years [15]. - **Polypropylene**: Similar to polyethylene, the supply and demand balance sheet for polypropylene from 2018 - 2025E presents relevant data to show the industry's supply and demand situation [17].

Report Summary 1. Core View - The copper market is influenced by multiple factors, with the price expected to undergo oscillatory adjustments. The fundamentals are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production while the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the July manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3%. The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, also indicating a neutral situation. Inventory levels are neutral, with an increase in overall copper inventory on August 21 and a rise in SHFE copper inventory compared to last week. The market trend is bearish as the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is moving downward, but the net long position of the main players is decreasing, showing a bullish tendency. Overall, factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season contribute to the price adjustment [2]. 2. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy is relaxed, and the July manufacturing PMI is 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 78,745 with a basis of 205, showing a premium of the spot over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 21, the copper inventory increased by 0 to 156,350 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 4,428 tons to 86,361 tons compared to last week, being neutral [2]. - **Market Trend**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is moving downward, suggesting a bearish trend [2]. - **Main Players' Positions**: The main players have a net long position, but the long position is decreasing, showing a bullish tendency [2]. - **Expectation**: The copper price will experience oscillatory adjustments due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [2]. 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Domestic policy easing [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Escalation of the trade war [3]. 3.3 Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 4,428 tons to 86,361 tons compared to last week [2]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. 3.4 Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market will be in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows that in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and there is a surplus of 0.11 million tons [20][22].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market has declined, showing pressure at the 15,000 level. The tight supply of imported nickel has been alleviated to some extent. The medium - and long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The price of nickel is expected to oscillate around the 20 - day moving average for the 2510 contract [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. The cost line has risen slightly, and the inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to the consumption situation during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The price of stainless steel is expected to have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average for the 2510 contract [4]. 3. Summary by Directory **Price Overview** - **Nickel**: On August 21, the price of SHFE nickel main contract was 119,830 yuan, down 230 yuan from the previous day; LME nickel was 14,940, down 105. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,100 yuan, up 200 yuan [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: On August 21, the price of stainless steel main contract was 12,795 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous day. The price of cold - rolled coil 304*2B in major regions remained unchanged [12]. **Inventory** - **Nickel**: As of August 21, LME nickel inventory was 209,598, an increase of 252; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 22,588, an increase of 29. The total inventory increased by 281 [15]. - **Stainless Steel**: As of August 15, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.0789 million tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons from the previous period. On August 21, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 118,640, a decrease of 1,129 [19][20]. **Cost** - **Nickel Ore and Ferronickel**: The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF remained stable on August 21. The price of high - nickel ferronickel was 929 yuan/nickel point, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day [23]. - **Stainless Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,896 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,584 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,513 yuan [25]. **Influencing Factors** - **Positive Factors**: The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption expectation and anti - involution policies [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, in the short term, the spot price is expected to fluctuate mainly due to low processing margins, some plant overhauls, and the lack of cost - side support from oil prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine ceasefire and the changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. - For MEG, the market is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, with obvious downside support, as the arrival volume is at a low level, port inventory is expected to remain low, and demand is gradually recovering. Attention should be paid to the recovery speed of polyester load and commodity trends [6]. - The industry has both positive and negative factors. Positives include planned PTA plant overhauls in August and the approaching "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. Negatives are the continued pressure on profit margins in each link of the industrial chain and the cautious overall operation atmosphere. The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, and attention should be paid to the cost side and the upper resistance level of the market rebound [8]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the content 2.每日提示 - **PTA**: Yesterday, due to the unexpected shutdown of a 5 million - ton PTA plant in South China, the PTA futures price rose significantly, driving up the entire polyester - chain futures market. The downstream polyester sales also improved slightly. The spot basis first rose and then weakened. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 + 7. The PTA factory inventory is 3.71 days, a 0.05 - day increase from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above it. The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. In the short term, the spot price is expected to fluctuate, and the basis will also show interval fluctuations [5]. - **MEG**: On Thursday, the price of ethylene glycol remained high, and the basis was stable. The intraday disk fluctuated slightly. The spot negotiation was around a premium of 88 - 92 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The inventory in East China decreased by 26,900 tons to 500,500 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above it. The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing. In the short term, the market is expected to be slightly bullish, and the port inventory is expected to remain low in August - September [6][7]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the content 4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes in different periods [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the ethylene glycol's operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, showing the supply - demand situation and inventory changes [10]. 5.价格相关 - There are multiple price - related charts, including the spot price of bottle chips, production margin, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA and MEG's inter - month spreads, basis, and the spot spread between TA and EG, as well as the processing margin of p - xylene [12][15][18][22][25][28][35]. 6.库存分析 - There are inventory - related charts, such as the PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET slice factory inventory, and the inventory days of various polyester products in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms [38][40][43]. 7.聚酯上下游开工 - There are charts showing the upstream and downstream operating rates of polyester, including the operating rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms [49][53]. 8.加工费与利润 - There are charts about the PTA processing fee and the profits of MEG produced by different methods, as well as the production margins of polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) [57][60][63].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term market of Shanghai Zinc ZN2510 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The previous trading day saw a decline in Shanghai Zinc with shrinking trading volume. Long - positions slightly increased while short - positions slightly decreased. Technically, the price is above the 60 - day moving average with weak support, short - term indicators are in a weak zone, and the trend shows a stalemate between long and short forces [2][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamentals - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1153000 tons, consumption was 1130200 tons, with a surplus of 22700 tons. From January to April, production was 4451400 tons, consumption was 4507900 tons, with a shortage of 56500 tons. The global zinc ore production from January to April was 4040600 tons [2]. 2. Basis - The spot price of zinc is 22260, with a basis of + 20, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory - On August 21, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1875 tons to 69375 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants remained unchanged at 32288 tons [2]. - From August 11 to August 21, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 99000 tons to 117400 tons [5]. 4. Futures Market Quotes - On August 21, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts was 138079 lots, with a total turnover of 1538613560 yuan, and the total open interest was 214223 lots, a decrease of 1927 lots [3]. 5. Spot Market Quotes - On August 21, the price of zinc concentrate was 16950 yuan/ton (+ 30), zinc ingot was 22260 yuan/ton (+ 40), galvanized sheet was 4090 yuan/ton (- 4), galvanized pipe was 4490 yuan/ton (- 5), zinc alloy was 22780 yuan/ton (+ 60), zinc powder was 27340 yuan/ton (+ 60), zinc oxide was 20850 yuan/ton (unchanged), and secondary zinc oxide was 7726 yuan/ton (- 12) [4]. 6. Zinc Ingot Production - In June 2025, the production of refined zinc was 471800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The planned production for July is 470300 tons [16]. 7. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees - On August 21, the average processing fee for 50% grade zinc concentrate in different regions ranged from 3500 to 4000 yuan/metal ton, with some regions having no change [18]. 8. Futures Company Transaction and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2510 on August 21, the total trading volume of 20 futures companies was 134383 lots, a decrease of 35721 lots compared to the previous day. The total long - position was 70832 lots, an increase of 272 lots, and the total short - position was 76267 lots, a decrease of 483 lots [19].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年8月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14800，基差-920 偏空 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格20日线上运行 中性 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，短多交易 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不如预期、中美贸易摩擦 现货价格 23年全乳胶，不可用于交割，8月21日现货价格上涨 ...