1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures show a volatile rebound, closing with a positive line, increased trading volume, and both long and short positions adding, with the long side adding slightly more. Overall, it was a volume - driven rebound. The price rebound attracted active long - side entry, while the short side continued to suppress. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Technically, the price closed above the 60 - day moving average with weak support from the moving average. The short - term indicator KDJ declined and operated in the weak area; the trend indicator rose, with the long - side strength increasing and the short - side strength decreasing, and the dominance of the short - side narrowing. It is recommended that the Shanghai zinc ZN2510 will fluctuate and consolidate [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, the global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, and the consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, the global zinc plate production was 4.4514 million tons, and the consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. In April, the global zinc plate production was 1.0722 million tons. From January to April, the global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, which is bullish [2]. Basis Analysis - The spot price was 22,220, and the basis was - 45, which is neutral [2]. Inventory Analysis - On August 20, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 950 tons to 71,250 tons compared with the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 250 tons to 32,288 tons compared with the previous day, which is bullish [2]. Futures Market Quotes - On August 20, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange totaled 182,089 lots, with a turnover of 2.02252885 billion yuan, and the open interest was 216,150 lots, an increase of 1,549 lots [3]. Spot Market Quotes - On August 20, the prices of zinc concentrates, zinc ingots, galvanized sheets, galvanized pipes, zinc alloys, zinc powder, zinc oxide, and secondary zinc oxide in the domestic main spot markets all showed a downward trend, except for zinc oxide and secondary zinc oxide, which remained unchanged [4]. Social Inventory of Zinc Ingots - From August 7 to August 18, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets increased from 91,300 tons to 115,000 tons [5]. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report - On August 20, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 32,288 tons, a decrease of 250 tons compared with the previous day [6]. LME Zinc Inventory - On August 20, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 950 tons to 71,250 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 38.81% [8]. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees - On August 20, the zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions varied. For example, in some areas with a 50% grade, the average processing fee was 3800 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc concentrate (48% grade) had an average processing fee of 75 US dollars/kiloton [17]. Member Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2510 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on August 20, in terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures, Dongzheng Futures, and Guotai Junan. In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Dongzheng Futures, and Guoxin Futures. In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Dongzheng Futures, and Guotai Junan [19].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market rebounded after a decline, with significant pressure from the 20 - day moving average. The supply shortage of imported nickel has been alleviated to some extent. The cost line has slightly increased, and stainless - steel inventory continues to decline. New energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. The short - term nickel ore price is stable, and the shipping cost is firm. The nickel iron price has increased steadily, and the cost line has risen slightly. The stainless - steel inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to the consumption situation during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The 2510 contract is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Overview - **镍**: On August 20, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,060 yuan, down 390 yuan from the previous day; the LME nickel price was 15,045 yuan, down 15 yuan. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,900 yuan, down 750 yuan [11]. - **不锈钢**: On August 20, the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,820 yuan, down 65 yuan from the previous day. The price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in major regions remained unchanged [11]. 3.2 Inventory - **镍**: As of August 20, the LME nickel inventory was 209,346 tons, an increase of 18 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipt was 22,559 tons, a decrease of 282 tons [14]. - **不锈钢**: As of August 20, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt was 119,769 tons, a decrease of 2,334 tons. As of August 15, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.0789 million tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons month - on - month [18][19]. 3.3 Raw Material Prices - **镍 ore**: On August 20, the price of red - clay nickel ore with a Ni1.5% grade was 57 US dollars per wet ton, and the price of red - clay nickel ore with a Ni0.9% grade was 29 US dollars per wet ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous day [22]. - **镍 iron**: On August 20, the price of high - nickel iron was 928.5 yuan per nickel point, an increase of 0.5 yuan; the price of low - nickel iron was 3,420 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged [22]. 3.4 Production Costs - **不锈钢**: The traditional production cost was 12,896 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,584 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,510 yuan [24]. 3.5 Import Costs - **镍**: The imported price was converted to 121,436 yuan per ton [28]. 3.6 Influencing Factors - **Likely to be Bullish**: The expected consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period and the anti - involution policy [7]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged; the installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures opened lower and fluctuated yesterday. In the afternoon, boosted by macro - news, the market rose rapidly. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was fair, and the spot basis strengthened. With low processing margins recently, some PTA plants are under maintenance, and the polyester load is rising. There is no pressure for inventory accumulation in August. However, the oil price is under pressure, and the cost side lacks support. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire and the changes in upstream and downstream plants [6]. - MEG: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol rose significantly, and the market negotiation was active. Affected by the news of South Korea cutting naphtha cracking capacity and the commodity market, the market soared in the afternoon. It is expected that the port inventory will remain low from August to September, and the demand is gradually recovering. The short - term ethylene glycol market is expected to be volatile and bullish, with obvious support below. Attention should be paid to the recovery speed of polyester load and commodity trends [8]. - Factors: The supply - demand expectation of PTA is improved due to planned maintenance in August, and there are expectations of demand recovery as the "Golden September and Silver October" season approaches. However, the profit margins of each link in the industrial chain are still under pressure, and the overall operation atmosphere is cautious. Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level, and attention should be paid to the cost side and the upper resistance level of the market rebound [9]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 No relevant information provided. 2.每日提示 - PTA: The opening price was lower, and it rose in the afternoon. The spot basis strengthened, and there was some replenishment by polyester factories. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 - 2. The net short position increased. The processing margin is low, some plants are under maintenance, and the polyester load is rising. The oil price pressure leads to a lack of cost support. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. - MEG: The price rose significantly on Wednesday. The price was sorted out in the morning and soared in the afternoon. The port inventory is expected to remain low from August to September, and the demand is recovering. It is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [8]. 3.今日关注 No relevant information provided. 4.基本面数据 - PTA: The spot price is 4686, the 01 - contract basis is - 92, showing a premium on the futures. The PTA factory inventory is 3.66 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [7]. - MEG: The spot price is 4502, the 01 - contract basis is 25, showing a discount on the futures. The inventory in East China is 52.74 tons, an increase of 5.52 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [8]. 5.影响因素总结 - Bullish factors: Some PTA plants are planned to be under maintenance in August, improving the supply - demand expectation. As the "Golden September and Silver October" season approaches, there are expectations of demand recovery [9]. - Bearish factors: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operation atmosphere is still cautious [9]. - Main logic and risk points: Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be noted during the market rebound [9]. 6. PTA供需平衡表 The table shows the PTA supply - demand balance from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA capacity, production, import, export, polyester production, demand, and inventory changes [10]. 7.乙二醇供需平衡表 The table shows the ethylene glycol supply - demand balance from January 2024 to December 2025, including EG production, import, consumption, port inventory, and supply - demand differences [11]. 8.价格相关 - Multiple charts show the price, production profit, capacity utilization, inventory, basis, and price differences of PTA, MEG, and related products from 2020 - 2025, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and CCF [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37]. 9.库存分析 Multiple charts show the inventory of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and various polyester products from 2021 - 2025, with data sources from Wind [39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49]. 10.聚酯上游开工 Charts show the opening rates of PTA, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 - 2025 [50][51][52][53]. 11.聚酯下游开工 Charts show the opening rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 - 2025 [54][55][56][57]. 12. PTA加工费 A chart shows the PTA processing fee from 2022 - 2025, with data from Wind [58][59][60]. 13. MEG利润 Charts show the production profits of different MEG production methods from 2022 - 2025, with data from Wind and Mysteel. The profit calculation is mainly for trend observation [61][62][63]. 14.聚酯纤维利润 Charts show the production profits of polyester short - fiber, DTY, POY, and FDY from 2022 - 2025, with data from Wind [64][65][66][67][68][69].

Report Summary 1. Core View - The copper market has a neutral fundamental situation with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The basis shows a slight premium, inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average with a downward - sloping 20 - day moving average, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions. Considering factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption in the off - season, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [2]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Neutral, with smelting production cuts and relaxed scrap copper policies, and a decline in July's manufacturing PMI [2]. - **Basis**: Neutral, with a spot price of 78,685 and a basis of 45, showing a premium over futures [2]. - **Inventory**: Neutral, with an increase of 1,200 tons in copper inventory on August 20th to 156,350 tons, and an increase of 4,428 tons in SHFE copper inventory from the previous week to 86,361 tons [2]. - **Market Trend**: Bearish, with the closing price below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average moving downward [2]. - **Main Positions**: Bullish, with net long main positions and an increase in long positions [2]. - **Expectation**: Copper prices will fluctuate and adjust due to factors like the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak off - season consumption [2]. 2.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war are mentioned, but specific impacts are not detailed [3]. 2.3 Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 4,428 tons from the previous week to 86,361 tons on August 20th [2]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. 2.4 Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]. 2.5 Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is expected to be in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024, with a surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [20][22].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market has support at the bottom, and short - long trading is recommended. The overall situation of natural rubber is complex, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to rise, and tire operating rate is at a high level, presenting a neutral situation [4]. - The basis is - 1075 with a spot price of 14,600, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Exchange inventory has increased recently, while Qingdao area inventory has changed slightly [14][17]. - The import volume has rebounded [20]. - Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, but tire production has reached a new high for the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [23][26][29][32]. - The basis weakened on August 20 [35]. Fundamentals Data - Bullish factors include high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - Bearish factors are increasing supply and negative domestic economic indicators [6]. Basis - The basis on August 20 was - 1075 and it weakened on that day [4][35]. Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) declined on August 20 [8]. Inventory - Exchange inventory has increased recently, and Qingdao area inventory has had small changes [14][17]. Import - The import volume has rebounded [20]. Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, tire production has reached a new high for the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [23][26][29][32]. Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Bullish factors: high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - Bearish factors: increasing supply and negative domestic economic indicators [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The glass industry has a weak fundamental situation, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, with a wide - range oscillatory operation in general [2][5]. - Although the glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and the glass factory inventory has decreased due to downstream phased restocking, the sustainability of the inventory reduction is questionable [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Glass production profit has recovered, the cold - repair speed of the industry has slowed down, the start - up rate and output have dropped to the historic low levels in the same period. Deep - processing orders are less than those in previous years, and the terminal demand is weak [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 1080 yuan/ton, the closing price of FG2601 is 1162 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 82 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.426 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.55% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [2][41]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increases [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to the weak fundamentals of glass, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [2]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period; the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original sheet inventory; the market sentiment of "anti - involution" has subsided [4]. Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1196 yuan/ton to 1162 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.84%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board decreased from 1084 yuan/ton to 1080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37%. The main basis decreased from - 112 yuan/ton to - 82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26.79% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark location, is 1080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. Fundamentals - Cost Side No specific content about the cost - side analysis is available other than mentioning glass production profit. Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines in the country is 223, with a start - up rate of 75.34%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low in the same period [21]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,600 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same period in history and showing a stable recovery [23]. Fundamentals - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 463,400 tons [27]. - The real - estate terminal demand is weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period [4]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.426 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.55% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [2][41]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, exports, imports, apparent supply, consumption, differences, production growth rates, consumption growth rates, and net import ratios [42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The import volume of white sugar has increased significantly. Due to good domestic sales, the spot price is firm, and the domestic market trend is stronger than the overseas market. The main contract 01 of Zhengzhou white sugar futures oscillates and rebounds, with the center of gravity slightly moving up. Attention should be paid to the pressure around 5700 [5][9]. - The long - term factors include positive aspects such as good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of Coca - Cola's formula in the US to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global white sugar production and the supply surplus in the new year [7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: As of the end of July in the current sugar - making season in the central - southern region of Brazil, the cumulative sugar production was 19.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons; the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year; the total import of syrup and premixed powder and other three items was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6030, and the basis is 354 (for the 01 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 1.61 million tons, which is a positive factor [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish sign [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, still leaning towards bearish [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Fundamental Data**: - Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the 25/26 global sugar market. For example, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 7.5 million tons, Datagro predicts 1.53 million tons, StoneX has a revised surplus of 700,000 tons to 3.04 million tons, Green Pool predicts a 5.3% increase in production to 199.1 million tons, and USDA predicts a 4.7% increase in production, a 1.4% increase in consumption, and a surplus of 11.397 million tons [9]. - According to the rural department, in the 25/26 season, the sugar - cane planting area is expected to be 1.44 million hectares, the sugar - cane yield per hectare is 59.7 tons, and the sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons. The import volume is predicted to be 5 million tons, and the consumption is 15.9 million tons, with a balance change of 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [38]. - **Position Data**: The main position is bearish, with the net short position decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, still leaning towards bearish [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-21） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：前期受安全事故停产的煤矿复产速度不及预期，且又有新增停产煤矿出现，煤矿复产依然 偏慢。市场情绪反复，近期下游终端采购放缓，煤矿整体出货转弱，新签订单较少，高报价资源成交略 显乏力，且近期线上竞拍流拍现象快速上升，成交降价比例增多，部分煤矿价格继续小幅调整；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1190，基差27.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 焦煤 利 多：1.铁水产量上涨 2.供应难有增量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a volatile and weak manner [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - The supply of soda ash remains at a high level with few alkali plant overhauls; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, and terminal demand has weakened. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - The basis is -104 yuan, with futures at a premium to spot, which is bearish [2]. - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary 3.2.1 Bullish Factors The peak summer overhaul period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high [5]. - The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [5]. - The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has subsided [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Low - end Price of Heavy Soda Ash in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1358 yuan/ton | 1230 yuan/ton | - 128 yuan | | Current Value | 1309 yuan/ton | 1205 yuan/ton | - 104 yuan | | Change Rate | - 3.61% | - 2.03% | - 18.75% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.5 Fundamental - Supply - The profit of heavy soda ash production using the North China ammonia - soda method is - 25.60 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production method is - 41 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.32%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally [17]. - The weekly production of soda ash is 761,300 tons, including 429,700 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been and are still planned significant increases in soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual expected production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.6 Fundamental - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 92.73% [24]. - The national daily melting volume of float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.34% [27]. - The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the in - production daily melting volume has continued a significant downward trend [33]. 3.7 Fundamental - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [36]. 3.8 Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [37].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has significant differences in views on whether the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season for cotton will be prosperous. The 14,000 mark is crucial. If it holds above, there is upward momentum; if it falls below, there is further downside potential [5]. - The overall assessment of the cotton market is neutral, with both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include reduced previous Sino - US tariffs and lower commercial inventories year - on - year, while bearish factors include postponed trade negotiations, high current export tariffs to the US, the off - season for consumption, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventories, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [4][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - The previous day, Zhengzhou cotton quickly broke below the 14,000 mark and then recovered. There are large differences in views among the long and short sides on whether the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season will be prosperous [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: According to the ICAC August report, the 2025/26 cotton production is 25.9 million tons, and consumption is 25.6 million tons. The USDA August report shows that the 2025/26 production is 25.392 million tons, consumption is 25.688 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.093 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's cotton imports in July were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. The Ministry of Agriculture's August 2025/26 forecast shows production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,240 yuan, with a basis of 1,185 yuan (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.23 million tons, which is bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, with an increase in net long positions, and the main trend is bullish [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus No specific content for "Today's Focus" is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In August, the global cotton production was 25.392 million tons, a decrease of 391,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. Consumption was 25.688 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The ending inventory was 16.093 million tons, a decrease of 742,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, global production is 25.9 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (1.6%); the global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, an increase of 360,000 tons (3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents), with a narrowing year - on - year fluctuation [13]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's China Cotton Forecast**: In the 2025/26 period, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The domestic average price of 3128B cotton is expected to be 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be 75 - 100 cents per pound [15]. 3.5 Position Data No specific content for "Position Data" is provided in the report.