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铁矿石早报(2025-11-6)-20251106
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 02:35
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill's hot metal production is decreasing, the arrival level this month has decreased, overall supply and demand is loose, port inventories are decreasing, and there will be policies to reduce crude steel production while the trade war is easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot prices at Rizhao Port are at a premium to futures, which is bullish [2]. - Port inventories are 15,272.93 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - The net long position of the iron ore main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [2]. - With the reduction of domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans on the market, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The prices of downstream steel products are rising, and the tolerance for high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Bearish Factors - Future shipping volumes will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. Other Aspects - The report also includes information on iron ore port spot prices [8], iron ore basis [12], iron ore import profit [15], iron ore shipping volume [17], iron ore port and steel mill inventories [19], iron ore arrival and dispatch volumes [21], iron ore daily consumption [24], steel enterprise production [26], and iron ore port daily transactions and steel mill daily hot metal production [29].
沪锌期货早报-20251106
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 02:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The world zinc market shows a supply shortage in 2025. From January to August, the global zinc plate supply shortage was 281,300 tons, and in August, it was 21,000 tons. The outlook for SHFE zinc ZN2512 is oscillating with a slight upward bias [2]. - On November 5, the previous trading day, SHFE zinc showed an oscillating upward trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average pointing upwards. The short - term view is that the market may experience oscillating consolidation, but overall, SHFE zinc ZN2512 is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [2][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Market Fundamentals - **Supply and demand**: In August 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1507 million tons, consumption was 1.1717 million tons, with a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, production was 9.0885 million tons, consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August, it was 8.4457 million tons [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 22,580, and the basis was - 70, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - **Inventory**: On November 5, LME zinc inventory increased by 175 tons to 34,000 tons compared to the previous day, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 226 tons to 68,423 tons compared to the previous day [2]. - **Market trends**: The previous day, SHFE zinc showed an oscillating upward trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average pointing upwards [2]. - **Main positions**: The main players held a net short position, and short positions increased [2]. 3.2 Zinc Futures Market Conditions on November 5 - **Futures exchange**: The trading volume of zinc futures on November 5 was 151,857 lots, with a turnover of 17.1761834 billion yuan, and the open interest was 223,198 lots, a decrease of 2,616 lots [3]. - **Spot market**: The price of domestic 0 zinc on November 5 varied by region. In Shanghai, it was 22,530 - 22,630 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, 22,380 - 22,480 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, 22,515 - 22,615 yuan/ton; and in Zhejiang, 22,505 - 22,605 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Zinc Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Information - **National zinc ingot inventory**: From October 23 to November 3, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets decreased from 163,500 tons to 162,300 tons [5]. - **Futures exchange zinc warehouse receipts**: On November 5, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 68,423 tons, an increase of 226 tons compared to the previous day [2][6]. - **LME zinc inventory**: On November 5, LME zinc inventory increased by 175 tons to 34,000 tons compared to the previous day, with registered warrants at 29,700 tons and cancelled warrants at 4,300 tons, accounting for 12.66% [8]. 3.4 Zinc Refined Production and Processing Fees - **Domestic refined zinc production**: In September 2025, the production of refined zinc was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The capacity utilization rate was 74.80%. The planned production for October was 509,600 tons [15]. - **Zinc concentrate processing fees**: On November 5, the handling charges for zinc concentrates varied by region. For example, in Huludao, for 50% grade, the handling charge was 3,100 - 3,300 yuan/metal ton, with a reference price of 3,200 yuan/metal ton [17]. 3.5 Futures Company Transactions and Positions - **Trading volume**: For the zn2512 contract on November 5, the total trading volume of member futures companies was 156,365 lots, a decrease of 67,514 lots compared to the previous day. The top three in trading volume were CITIC Futures, Dongzheng Futures, and Guotai Junan Futures [18]. - **Long positions**: The total long positions of member futures companies were 77,848 lots, a decrease of 1,572 lots compared to the previous day. CITIC Futures had the largest long position [18]. - **Short positions**: The total short positions of member futures companies were 76,343 lots, a decrease of 1,219 lots compared to the previous day. CITIC Futures had the largest short position [18].
大越期货沪铝早报-20251106
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 02:33
1、基本面:碳中和控制产能扩张,下游需求不强劲,房地产延续疲软,宏观短期情绪多变;中性。 2、基差:现货21300,基差-95,贴水期货,中性。 3、库存:上期所铝库存较上周跌4594吨至 113574吨;中性。 4、盘面:收盘价收于20均线上,20均线向上运行;偏多。 5、主力持仓:主力净持仓多,多增;偏多。 6、预期:碳中和催发铝行业变革,长期利多铝价,美再扩大钢铝关税,多空交织,铝价偏强运行 沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 :祝森林 从业资格证号:F3023048 投资咨询证号:Z0013626 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 近期利多利空分析 利多: 利空: 逻辑: 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动,影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观,高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 昨 ...
大越期货油脂早报-20251106
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 02:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil and fat supply is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic is centered around the relatively loose global oil and fat fundamentals, with the main risk being El Nino weather [5] 3. Summary by Related Contents Daily Viewpoints - **Soybean Oil**: The MPOB report for August shows that Malaysian palm oil production decreased 9.8% to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and end - of - month inventory decreased 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. Ship - surveying agencies indicate a 4% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil exports this month. Entering the production - reduction season, palm oil supply pressure will decrease. The basis is 102 with the spot price at 8240, indicating the spot price is higher than the futures price. On September 22, the commercial inventory was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% year - on - year. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. The short positions of the main contract have decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [2] - **Palm Oil**: Similar MPOB report data as soybean oil. Entering the production - increase season, palm oil supply will increase. The basis is 40 with the spot price at 8630. On September 22, the port inventory was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and down 34.1% year - on - year. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. The short positions of the main contract have decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [3] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Also based on the same MPOB report. Entering the production - increase season, palm oil supply will increase. The basis is 323 with the spot price at 9730. On September 22, the commercial inventory was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% year - on - year. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. The long positions of the main contract have decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9600 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **利空**: Oil and fat prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic oil and fat inventories are continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] Supply - Related - Items include soybean oil inventory [6], soybean meal inventory [8], oil mill soybean crushing [10], palm oil inventory [17], rapeseed oil inventory [19], rapeseed inventory [21], and domestic total oil and fat inventory [23] Demand - Related - Items include soybean oil apparent consumption [12] and soybean meal apparent consumption [14]
白糖早报-20251106
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 02:32
Report Overview - Report Date: November 6, 2025 - Report Title: Sugar Morning Report - Report Source: Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the domestic Zhengzhou sugar shows a relatively resistant decline compared to the continuous decline of foreign sugar, but the long - term divergence between domestic and foreign trends is unsustainable. The main 01 contract is under pressure and falls back near 5500, with a short - term volatile and bearish outlook [4][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a 277 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 global sugar market, while ISO expected a supply gap of 23.1 million tons, significantly reduced from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1116.21 million tons, with cumulative sales of 1000 million tons and a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 15 million tons, and 15.14 million tons of syrup and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 13.51 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5720, with a basis of 279 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, suggesting a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, but the overall position of the main force is still bearish [4]. - **Expectations**: The short - term view is volatile and bearish, as the long - term divergence between domestic and foreign sugar trends is expected to end [4][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Forecast**: Different institutions have varying forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand situation. ISO expects a supply gap of about 20 million tons (nearly balanced), StoneX predicts a 277 - million - ton surplus, Czarnikow forecasts a surplus of 620 - 750 million tons, Datagro anticipates a 153 - million - ton surplus, Covrig Analytics projects a 420 - million - ton surplus, and Alvean/Louis Dreyfus and Green Pool predict surpluses of 40 million tons and 115 million tons respectively [35]. - **China's Sugar Supply - demand Balance**: In the 2025/26 season, China's sugar production is expected to be 1120 million tons, imports are estimated at 500 million tons, and consumption is projected to be 1590 million tons, with a balance change of 12 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to range from 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is forecasted to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. - **Import Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imported raw sugar after processing and tax payment (50% tariff) was about 5086 yuan per ton, with significant import profits due to the continuous decline of international sugar prices [43]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.
天胶早报-20251106
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 02:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, spot being strong, domestic inventory starting to decrease, and tire operating rate at a high level. The basis is -500 (spot price is 14350), which is bearish. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao has increased week - on - week and year - on - year, showing a neutral situation. The price is running below the 20 - day line, which is bearish. The main net position is short, and the short position is decreasing, also bearish. The market has support below, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. 3.2 Fundamentals Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is high [4][6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the exchange has been continuously decreasing, while the inventory in Qingdao has been increasing [4][14]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 whole latex (non - deliverable) fell on November 5th, and the basis weakened on November 5th [8][35]. - **Import**: The import volume has rebounded [20]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are at a record high for the same period [23][29][32]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6].
焦煤焦炭早报(2025-11-6)-20251106
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 02:32
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **焦煤**: The supply of coking coal is tight due to safety and environmental inspections and the storage - increase task of Shandong mines. The third round of price increase of coke has boosted the price of high - quality coking coal. Although downstream enterprises have some production restrictions, the demand remains strong. The short - term price is expected to remain stable [2]. - **焦炭**: The third round of price increase of coke has been fully implemented, but the increase in coking coal prices has affected the profit of coke enterprises, leading to a decline in production. The market demand is strong, but considering the limited profit of steel mills, the difficulty of further price increase will increase, and the short - term price is expected to remain stable [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Daily Views - **焦煤**: - **基本面**: Supply is tight, and the price of high - quality coking coal is rising. The online auction of most coal types is still rising, and the auction failure rate is low [2]. - **基差**: The spot price is 1430, and the basis is 158.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2]. - **库存**: The total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons from last week [2]. - **盘面**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - **主力持仓**: The main force of coking coal has a net long position, and the long position is decreasing [2]. - **预期**: The short - term price is expected to remain stable [2]. - **焦炭**: - **基本面**: The profit of coke enterprises has slightly recovered, but the rise in coking coal prices has affected production. The market inquiry and trading atmosphere is good [7]. - **基差**: The spot price is 1720, and the basis is - 33, with the spot at a discount to the futures [7]. - **库存**: The total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons from last week [7]. - **盘面**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [7]. - **主力持仓**: The main force of coke has a net short position, and the short position is decreasing [7]. - **预期**: The short - term price is expected to remain stable [6]. Price - **焦煤**: The prices of imported Russian and Australian coking coal are provided, with some price increases [10]. - **焦炭**: The prices of port metallurgical coke are provided, with some price increases [11]. Inventory - **港口库存**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [19]. - **独立焦企库存**: Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [23]. - **钢厂库存**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [28]. Other Data - **焦炉产能利用率**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is 74.48% [41]. - **吨焦平均盈利**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 25 yuan [45].
沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251106
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 02:31
Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - For Shanghai Nickel 2512, it is expected to operate in a volatile and weak manner, testing cost support [2] - For Stainless Steel 2512, it is expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Nickel - **Fundamentals**: The external market continues to decline. Nickel ore prices are firm, the Philippine rainy season is approaching, tender prices are firm, and shipping costs are stable. Nickel iron prices continue to fall, and the cost line loosens and moves down. Stainless steel inventories rise slightly. Primary nickel accumulates inventory both at home and abroad. New energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the overall boost is limited. The medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [2] - **Basis**: The spot price is 120,950, and the basis is 920, indicating a bullish signal [2] - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 253,128 (+378), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 32,929 (+1,977), indicating a bearish signal [2] - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish signal [2] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [2] Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The spot stainless steel price remains flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, shipping costs are stable, nickel iron prices fall, the cost line loosens further, and stainless steel inventories rise slightly [4] - **Basis**: The average stainless steel price is 13,700, and the basis is 1,165, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts are 73,300 (unchanged), indicating a neutral signal [4] - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish signal [4] Price and Inventory Data - **Nickel and Stainless Steel Prices**: On November 5, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,030 (up 330 from the previous day), the LME nickel was 15,015 (down 45), the stainless steel main contract was 12,535 (down 10). Spot prices of various nickel products and stainless steel cold - rolled coils mostly declined [11] - **Nickel Inventory**: As of October 31, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 36,751 tons, with futures inventory at 31,388 tons, an increase of 676 tons and 4,578 tons respectively. On November 5, LME inventory was 253,128 (up 378), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 32,929 (up 1,977) [13][14] - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: On October 31, the Wuxi inventory was 598,700 tons, the Foshan inventory was 306,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,031,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,700 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 651,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,600 tons. On November 5, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 73,300 (unchanged) [19][20] Cost - related Data - **Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices**: On November 5, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 58 US dollars/wet ton, and (Ni0.9%) was 30 US dollars/wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. Shipping costs from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained stable. High - nickel wet - ton prices were 920 yuan/nickel point (down 2), and low - nickel wet - ton prices were 3,050 yuan/ton (unchanged) [23] - **Stainless Steel Production Cost**: The traditional cost was 12,765, the scrap steel production cost was 12,893, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel cost was 16,538 [25] - **Nickel Import Cost**: The converted import price was 120,425 yuan/ton [28] Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: The firm ore price provides cost support [6] - **Negative Factors**: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new demand growth points, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [6]
棉花早报-20251106
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 02:26
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年11月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询证号: Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花: 1、基本面:ICAC11月报:25/26年度产量2540万吨,消费2500万吨。USDA9月报:25/26年度 产量2562.2万吨,消费2587.2万吨,期末库存1592.5万吨。海关:9月纺织品服装出口244.2 亿美元,同比下降1.4%。9月份我国棉花进口10万吨,同比减少18.7%;棉纱进口13万吨,同 比增加18.18%。农村部10月25/26年度:产量636万吨,进口140万吨,消费740万吨,期末库 存822万吨。中性。 6:预期:目前新棉逐步上市,产量可能比之前预估有所减少。对美出口关税比前期降 ...
大越期货菜粕早报-20251106
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 02:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 oscillates in the range of 2500 - 2560. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. Affected by soybean meal, the market will maintain range - bound oscillations in the short term. The market is expected to remain volatile due to uncertainties in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and rumors of improved China - Canada trade relations [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in the 2500 - 2560 range. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis shows a premium over futures, which is bullish; the inventory is decreasing week - on - week and year - on - year, which is bullish; the price is above the 20 - day moving average and rising, which is bullish; the main long positions are decreasing but funds are flowing in, which is bullish. The market is expected to remain volatile [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term. The demand is decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced short - term export expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports. The main logic of the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From October 28 to November 5, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3017 - 3092 yuan/ton, and the trading volume fluctuated between 5.35 - 15.08 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2500 - 2640 yuan/ton, and there was little trading volume. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract rebounded from a low level. Rapeseed meal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a slight fluctuation in the spot premium. The import volume of rapeseed in October remained stable, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continued to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory was at a low level. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remained low. Aquatic fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][17][19]. 3.5 Position Data - No specific position data analysis other than the fact that the main long positions of rapeseed meal decreased and funds were flowing in [9].