1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4718 - 4774. The cost is generally weakening, and the supply pressure has decreased this week, with a slight increase in production schedule expected next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. The report suggests continuous attention to macro - policies and export dynamics [6]. - The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [9]. 3. Summary According to Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a 2.05% MoM decrease. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.57%, with no MoM change. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 316,280 tons, a 0.45% MoM decrease, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 150,360 tons, a 0.47% MoM increase. Supply pressure decreased this week, and production schedule is expected to increase slightly next week with fewer planned maintenance [6]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 49.86%, a 0.27 - percentage - point MoM increase, higher than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 35.87%, a 0.61 - percentage - point MoM increase, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 41.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point MoM increase, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 72.5%, unchanged MoM, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 58.76%, a 2.47 - percentage - point MoM increase, lower than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain weak [6]. - **Cost**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 722.72 yuan/ton, a 1.30% MoM increase in losses, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 560.46 yuan/ton, a 1.30% MoM increase in losses, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2303.25 yuan/ton, a 1.00% MoM decrease in profit, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may face pressure [6]. - **Basis**: On October 27, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4670 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 76 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 333,800 tons, a 7.35% MoM decrease. Calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 252,100 tons, a 9.02% MoM decrease. Ethylene - based factory inventory was 81,700 tons, a 1.80% MoM decrease. Social inventory was 554,700 tons, a 0.26% MoM decrease. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.6 days, a 6.66% MoM decrease, showing a neutral signal [6]. - **Market Chart**: MA20 is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below MA20, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions, showing a bearish signal [6]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents the previous day's PVC market data, including prices, price changes, and inventory data of different varieties and regions, such as the price of the 01 contract, inter - month spreads, and various inventory levels [13]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - The data shows the historical basis trend of PVC futures, including the relationship between the spot price in East China and the futures price [16]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - The report shows the historical spread trends of different contract months of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [22]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Materials - **Blue Coke**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily production of blue coke in Shenmu over multiple years [25]. - **Calcium Carbide**: It shows the mainstream price in Shaanxi, cost - profit in Wuhai, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production of calcium carbide over multiple years [28]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: It presents the price, production of liquid chlorine, and the price, monthly production of raw salt over multiple years [30]. - **Caustic Soda**: It includes the price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong, cost - profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, double - ton spread, and inventory of caustic soda over multiple years [32][35]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - It shows the capacity utilization rate, production profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC's calcium carbide method and ethylene method over multiple years [36][40]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - production ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) of PVC. It also presents the cost - profit, production, and apparent consumption of paste resin, as well as real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, and some macro - economic data such as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year [42][44][50]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - It shows the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days of PVC over multiple years [54]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene method (Tianjin - Taiwan), and import spread of vinyl chloride (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) [56]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly supply - demand trend of PVC, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export data from August 2024 to September 2025 [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For methanol 2601, the mainland market is expected to have limited upside and downside due to factors such as low upstream factory inventory, high coal prices, high overall mainland operating rates, squeezed olefin profits, and high port inventories. The port market is expected to maintain a high - volatility state with both ups and downs this week, affected by sanctions on Iran, with attention on subsequent impacts of sanctions, Iranian gas restrictions, and coastal MTO operating rates. Overall, the methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2601 expected to trade between 2240 - 2310 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - The mainland has cost - side support from low upstream factory inventory and high coal prices, but also faces supply pressure from high operating rates and negative feedback from olefin plants. The port is affected by sanctions on Iran, with reduced downward momentum but weak fundamentals. The overall methanol price is expected to be volatile this week [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some plants are shut down (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya), Iranian methanol operating rates are down, some acetic acid plants are in production or have planned production, and northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua), there will be concentrated vessel arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde is in the traditional off - season, MTBE operating rates have dropped significantly, coal - to - methanol has profit margins and is actively selling, and some factories in production areas have accumulated inventory [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Spot Price**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2265 yuan/ton, with a 01 - contract basis of - 3, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 125.89 million tons, a decrease of 1.41 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 6.34 million tons to 87.70 million tons [5]. - **Market Price and Spread**: Various market prices and spreads are provided, including those of spot and futures markets, and different regional price differences. For example, the futures closing price was 2268 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous value; the basis was - 38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton from the previous value [8]. - **Operating Rates**: The weighted average national operating rate was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous value. Operating rates in different regions also showed varying degrees of decline [8]. - **Production Profits**: Different production processes have different profit situations. For example, coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia had a profit of 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous value; natural - gas - to - methanol in the southwest had a profit of - 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [19]. - **Downstream Product Data**: Traditional downstream product prices such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained stable. Production profits and operating rates of downstream products also showed different changes. For example, the profit of formaldehyde production was - 158 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton from the previous value; the operating rate was 25.42%, an increase of 0.90% from the previous value [29][34]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, shutdown, or reduced - load operation, with different maintenance start and end dates and losses. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's 100,000 - ton/year coke - oven - gas - based plant has been shut down for maintenance since November 2024, with a weekly maintenance loss of 1950 tons [56]. - **Overseas Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants are in different operating states, such as some in Iran are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operating conditions, and some plants in other countries are operating normally or are in maintenance [57]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some domestic olefin plants are in maintenance, shutdown, or normal operation. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's 700,000 - ton/year olefin plant and its 1.8 - million - ton/year methanol plant were shut down for maintenance on March 15, 2025, with an expected maintenance period of 45 days [58].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年10月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 根据隆众 ， | 2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241 3万吨 环比降 ， . ， | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 幅5 1% 同比增幅17 1% . , . | 本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33 0777% 环比减少 。 . ， | | | | | 4 31个百分点 ， . | 全国样本企业出货29 066万吨 环比增加14 73% 样本企业产量为 ， . . , | | | | | 55 2万吨 环比减少11 . ， | 53% 样本企业装置检修量预估为67 6万吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production schedule is increasing, and it is near the historical average level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8855 - 9075 [3][6]. - For polysilicon, the supply-side production schedule will increase in the short term and is expected to回调 in the medium term. The demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components will decrease in the short term and is expected to recover in the medium term. Overall, the demand shows a continuous recovery trend, and the cost support is stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 53655 - 55345 [7][8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase from the previous week. The demand was 98,000 tons, with the polysilicon inventory at 254,000 tons, silicon wafers and battery cells in a loss state, and components profitable. The organic silicon inventory was 55,100 tons, with a production profit of -454 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 70.05%, which was flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 75,300 tons, and the import loss was 276 yuan/ton. The cost support in the dry season has increased [6]. - **Basis**: On October 27, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 335 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 559,000 tons, a 0.53% decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 167,700 tons, a 0.17% decrease. The main port inventory was 123,000 tons, a 2.50% increase [6][15]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The expected production in October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month. The silicon wafer production was 14.73GW, a 2.64% increase from the previous week, but currently in a loss state. The battery cell production was in a loss state, and the component production was profitable. The average cost of N-type polysilicon was 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 15,450 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On October 27, the price of N-type dense material was 51,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was -1520 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase from the previous week, at a historical high [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position is decreasing [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of various contracts showed an upward trend, with increases ranging from 0.34% to 0.84%. Spot prices of different types of silicon remained unchanged. The weekly social inventory decreased by 0.53%, and the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.18%. The main port inventory increased by 2.50%. The weekly sample enterprise production increased by 3.36%, and the production and operating rates in different regions showed different changes [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures prices of various contracts increased, with increases ranging from 3.09% to 5.54%. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends. The monthly supply of polysilicon in China decreased by 1.29%, the export volume decreased by 30.00%, the consumption volume increased by 6.62%, and the import volume increased by 30.00%. The component production was profitable, and the domestic and European inventories decreased [17]. 3.3 Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The basis of industrial silicon and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon showed different trends over time [19][20]. - The price and basis of polysilicon also showed different trends over time [22][23]. 3.4 Inventory - The inventory of industrial silicon in different regions and at ports showed different trends over time [25][26]. - The polysilicon inventory also showed different trends over time [17]. 3.5 Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The weekly production of industrial silicon sample enterprises in different regions and the overall production showed different trends over time [29][30]. - The monthly production of industrial silicon by specification also showed different trends over time [31]. 3.6 Cost - Sample Region Trends - The cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang's oxygenated 553 silicon showed different trends over time [36][37]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance Sheets 3.7.1 Industrial Silicon - The weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon showed different trends over time [38][39]. - The monthly supply - demand balance also showed different trends over time, with different values for actual consumption, export, import, and other items [41][42]. 3.7.2 Polysilicon - The monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon showed different trends over time, with different values for consumption, export, import, and supply [67][68]. 3.8 Downstream Market Trends 3.8.1 Organic Silicon - The production capacity utilization rate, profit, cost, and production of DMC in organic silicon showed different trends over time [44][45]. - The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 also showed different trends over time [46][47]. - The import, export, and inventory of DMC also showed different trends over time [51][52]. 3.8.2 Aluminum Alloy - The waste aluminum recycling volume, social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, and import - export situation of Chinese unforged aluminum alloy showed different trends over time [54][55]. - The production, inventory, and operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloy ingots also showed different trends over time [57][58]. - The production and sales of automobiles and the export of aluminum alloy wheels also showed different trends over time [59][60]. 3.8.3 Polysilicon - The cost, price, inventory, production, and demand of polysilicon showed different trends over time [64][65]. - The price, production, inventory, and demand of silicon wafers also showed different trends over time [70][71]. - The price, production, inventory, and export of battery cells showed different trends over time [73][74]. - The price, production, inventory, and export of photovoltaic components also showed different trends over time [76][77]. - The prices and import - export volumes of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coatings, photovoltaic glass, high - purity quartz sand, and soldering tapes showed different trends over time [79][80].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2320 - 2380. The market is in a wait - and - see mode for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the short - term trend is oscillatory [9]. - The market is mainly focused on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal fluctuates and rebounds, driven by soybean meal and technical oscillations. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season is over, but low inventory supports the price. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade, the short - term trend is oscillatory [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues reduce short - term exports and domestic supply [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with reduced production in Ukraine and increased production in Russia offsetting each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is entering the off - season; there is still a small probability of a settlement in the anti - dumping case of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2480, and the basis is 145, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a 2.78% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.8 tons and a 20.45% year - on - year decrease from last year's 2.2 tons, which is bullish [9]. - **Price Trends**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish [9]. - **Trading Data**: From October 17th to 27th, the average trading price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2959 - 3003, and the trading volume between 6.51 - 14.86 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal was between 2440 - 2480, and the trading volume was 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 494 - 523 [13]. 3.5 Position Data - The main players have shifted from short to long positions, and capital has flowed in, which is bullish [9]. - Rapeseed meal warehouse receipts have been decreasing. For example, on October 27th, there were 4050 receipts, a decrease of 210 from the previous day [16].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The stock market showed a widespread increase with higher trading volume the previous day. The Shanghai Composite Index approached the 4000 mark, and both the SSE 50 and micro - cap indices reached new highs for the year. There was a rotation of hot sectors, which is a positive sign. - The IC2512 contract had a discount of 124.99 points, and the IM2512 contract had a discount of 172.78 points, which is a negative sign. - The margin trading balance was 2.4398 trillion yuan, an increase of 59 billion yuan, indicating positive market sentiment. - The IH2512 contract had a discount of 2.73 points, and the IF2512 contract had a discount of 31.62 points, which is neutral. - In terms of the market trend, IH > IC > IF > IM, and all of them were above the 20 - day moving average, which is positive. - Regarding the positions of major players, the long positions in the IF contract decreased, while those in the IH contract increased, and the long positions in the IC contract decreased, generally showing a positive trend. - Due to the preliminary consensus reached in the Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the rebound in the technology sector after the Fourth Plenary Session, the short - term index is expected to rebound. It is recommended to reduce positions appropriately on days of significant intraday increases. The index is expected to maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend. Attention should be paid to the meeting between Chinese and US leaders on Thursday [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Index Futures Data**: The report provides detailed data on various index futures contracts, including contract prices, price changes, trading volumes, index prices, price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, dividend yields, spreads, discount ratios, annualized discounts, contract values, delivery dates, and remaining terms for the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices [3]. - **Base and Spread Charts**: There are charts showing the base and spread trends of the SSE 50 and CSI 500 index futures over a long period, with data sourced from Wind Information and organized by Dayue Futures [4][7]. Spot Market - **Important Index Daily Returns**: Charts display the daily returns of important indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, CSI 300, Wind All - A, CSI 500, Shenzhen Component Index, STAR 50, and ChiNext Index, with data from Wind Information [10][11]. - **Style Index Daily Returns**: There are multiple charts presenting the daily returns of different style indices, including cyclical and non - cyclical indices, low - P/E, high - P/E, and medium - P/E indices, large - cap, small - cap, value, and growth indices, with data from Wind Information [13][14][16]. Market Structure - **AH - Share Premium**: A chart shows the trend of the Hang Seng AH Premium Index over time, with data from Wind Information [19][20]. - **Price - to - Earnings Ratio (PE)**: A chart depicts the historical PE (TTM) trends of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index, with data from Wind Information [22][23]. - **Price - to - Book Ratio (PB)**: A chart shows the historical PB trends of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index, with data from Wind Information [24][25]. Market Fundamentals - **Stock Market Fund Inflows**: A chart presents the net inflows of funds into the A - share market and the CSI 300 index over time, with data from Wind Information [26][27]. - **Margin Trading Balance**: A chart shows the margin trading balance and the CSI 300 index over time, with data from Wind Information [28][29]. - **Northbound Capital Flows**: A chart displays the net inflows of northbound capital (Shanghai - Hong Kong and Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect) over time, with data from Wind Information [30][31]. - **Stock Unlockings**: Although mentioned, no specific data or chart details are provided in the summary scope. - **Funding Costs**: A chart shows the trends of SHIBOR overnight, one - week, and two - week rates over time, with data from Wind Information [36][37]. Market Sentiment - **Trading Activity**: Charts show the turnover rates (based on free - floating market capitalization) of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index over time, with data from Wind Information [39][40][42]. - **Public - Offering Hybrid Fund Positions**: Although mentioned, no specific data or chart details are provided in the summary scope. Other Indicators - **Dividend Yield and Treasury Yield**: A chart shows the dividend yields of index futures and the 10 - year Treasury yield over time, with data from Wind Information [48][49]. - **Exchange Rate**: A chart presents the trend of the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate over time, with data from Wind Information [50][51]. - **New Account Openings and Index Tracking**: Although mentioned, no specific data or chart details are provided in the summary scope. - **Newly Established Fund Sizes**: Charts for the newly established sizes of stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds are mentioned, but no specific data details are provided in the summary scope.

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an explicit industry investment rating. 2. Core View The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose, with a decrease in steel mill's hot metal production and a reduction in this month's arrival volume. The port inventory is decreasing, and there will be a crude steel reduction policy. The trade war is easing. Considering various factors such as basis, inventory, and technical aspects, the market is expected to be in a high - level shock. The domestic demand is decreasing, and the plan of capacity reduction impacts the market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - Steel mill's hot metal production starts to decrease, this month's arrival volume decreases, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory decreases, and there will be a crude steel reduction policy, trade war eases; overall assessment is neutral [2]. Basis Analysis - The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 836, with a basis of 49; the spot price of Brazilian mixed ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 854, with a basis of 67. The spot is at a premium to the futures; assessment is bullish [2]. Inventory Analysis - The port inventory is 15,109.49 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year; assessment is neutral [2]. Technical Analysis - The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward; assessment is neutral [2]. Main Position Analysis - The net long position of the main iron ore contract is held, and the long position decreases; assessment is bullish [2]. Expectation - Domestic demand decreases, and the capacity reduction plan impacts the market. Adopt a high - level shock mindset [2]. Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventory decreases [6]. - Import incurs losses [6]. - The downstream steel price rises, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Bearish Factors - Future shipping volume will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The outer market continues to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The nickel ore price is firm, the nickel - iron price drops slightly, and the stainless - steel inventory decreases slightly. The new - energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the overall boost is limited. The medium - and long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The 2512 contract of Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. The short - term nickel ore price is firm, the sea freight is stable, the nickel - iron price drops slightly, and the cost line moves down. The stainless - steel inventory decreases slightly. The 2512 contract of stainless steel is expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Overview - **镍期货**: On October 27, the price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,400 yuan, up 250 yuan from October 24; the price of the London nickel was 15,335 yuan, up 10 yuan. The nickel index on the Wuxi trading center was 120,850 yuan, down 1,000 yuan [12]. - **不锈钢 futures**: On October 27, the price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,815 yuan, up 5 yuan from October 24 [12]. - **Nickel spot**: On October 27, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 123,050 yuan, up 150 yuan from October 24; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 124,300 yuan, up 100 yuan; the price of 1 imported nickel was 122,250 yuan, up 200 yuan; the price of nickel beans was 124,300 yuan, up 200 yuan [12]. - **Stainless - steel spot**: The prices of cold - rolled coils 304*2B in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged from October 24 to October 27 [12]. 3.2 Inventory - **Nickel inventory**: As of October 27, the LME nickel inventory was 251,238 tons, an increase of 384 tons from October 24; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipt was 29,780 tons, an increase of 2,970 tons. The total inventory was 281,018 tons, an increase of 3,354 tons [15]. - **Stainless - steel inventory**: On October 24, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.0274 million tons, a decrease of 13,800 tons from the previous period. The inventory of the 300 - series was 649,300 tons, a decrease of 5,900 tons. As of October 27, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt was 73,896 tons, a decrease of 299 tons from October 24 [19][20]. 3.3 Price of Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron - **Nickel ore**: The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 58 US dollars per wet ton, and that with Ni0.9% was 30 US dollars per wet ton, remaining unchanged from October 24. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 11.5 US dollars per ton, and to Tianjin Port was 12.5 US dollars per ton, both remaining unchanged [23]. - **Nickel iron**: The price of high - nickel wet - ton (8 - 12) was 928.5 yuan per nickel point, down 2 yuan from October 24; the price of low - nickel wet - ton (below 2) was 3,150 yuan per ton, down 150 yuan [23]. 3.4 Stainless - steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,936 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 13,237 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel was 16,776 yuan [25]. 3.5 Nickel Import Cost The converted import price of nickel was 123,095 yuan per ton [28]. 3.6 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: Expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cut; anti - involution policy; firm ore price with a cost support line at 120,000 yuan [6]. - **Negative factors**: The domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, and there is no new growth point in demand. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: Environmental and safety measures have tightened, coal mine复产 is below expectations, and production capacity release is limited. With stable coking and steel demand and some speculative traders entering the market, coal mines have new orders and smooth shipments, with some tight - resource coal prices rising. The basis shows spot premium, inventory has decreased, the price is above the 20 - day line, and the main position is net long. After the second round of coke price increase, coke enterprises' profit has slightly recovered, and the procurement of raw coal has increased. However, due to low profit and high raw material prices, coke enterprises' production increase willingness is low, and coking coal prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: After two rounds of price increases, coke enterprises' profit has slightly recovered, and their production enthusiasm has increased, but the profit recovery is less than expected, so some enterprises still maintain production restrictions. Coke shipments are smooth, and inventory is tight. The basis shows spot discount, inventory has decreased, the price is above the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short. Supported by steel mills' acceptance of price increases, coke enterprises are optimistic, and sales are good. However, considering the continuous decline in molten iron production and poor terminal demand, the room for coke price increase is limited, and coke prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price - **Coking Coal**: On October 27, 2025, the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at various ports are provided, with some prices rising. For example, the price of Russian main coking coal K4 at Caofeidian Port is 1340 with a rise of 115 [9]. - **Coke**: On October 27, 2025, the prices of port metallurgical coke from different ports and origins have increased. For example, the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke from Shanxi at Langya Port is 1530, up 40 [8]. 3.2 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons from last week [17]. - **Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 million tons, a decrease of 69.2 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 million tons, an increase of 3.5 million tons from last week [21]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [26]. 3.3 Other Data - **Coking Coal**: The national 230 independent coke enterprise samples have a capacity utilization rate of 74.48% [39]. - **Coke**: The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global trade tensions have eased, leading to a continued decline in gold and silver prices. The optimism about trade has returned, increasing the downward pressure on gold prices, and silver prices have followed the decline of gold prices. The premiums of Shanghai gold and silver have expanded slightly, and the domestic sentiment remains relatively strong [4][5]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to fall, and silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. However, tariff concerns have a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices [9][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The three major US stock indexes rose across the board, and the three major European stock indexes closed slightly higher. US bond yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year US bond yield dropping 3.46 basis points to 3.976%. The US dollar index fell 0.12% to 98.82. The offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar to 7.1091. COMEX gold futures fell 3.40% to $3997.00 per ounce. The basis was - 1.56, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 87,015 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, COMEX silver futures fell 3.61% to $46.83 per ounce. The basis was - 18, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 17,328 kilograms day - on - day to 647,643 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position increased [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: Positive factors include the long - term upward trend on the disk and the main net long position. Negative factors include unchanged gold futures warehouse receipts. The expected impact of the day's events: Trump extended the US - Mexico trade negotiation period, and the US reached trade agreements with multiple Southeast Asian countries, causing gold prices to fall again. The trade optimism has returned, increasing the downward pressure on gold prices [4]. - **Silver**: Positive factors include the decrease in Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts, the long - term upward trend on the disk, and the increase in the main net long position. Negative factors are not obvious. The silver price followed the gold price decline due to trade factors, and the domestic sentiment remained relatively strong [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - 07:00: South Korea's preliminary GDP for the third quarter - Time TBD: The 2025 World Digital City Conference in Shenzhen (lasting until October 31), the 2025 Shenzhen International All - Touch and Display Exhibition, the Guangdong International Robot and Intelligent Equipment Development Conference, and the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference - 16:30: German Economic and Energy Minister Robert Habeck's speech and participation in the public discussion of the Foreign Trade Day event - 17:00: The European Central Bank releases CPI expectations and the loan survey report - 17:30: ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta's speech - 21:00: US FHFA Housing Price Index for August, S&P/CS 20 - City Composite Home Price Index for August - 22:00: US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for October, Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October [14] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and the new US government's policy expectations and actual verification will continue, making gold prices still prone to rise and difficult to fall [9]. - **Silver**: Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. Tariff concerns have a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [12]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: The main net long position decreased. The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 45 contracts (- 0.03%), the short position increased by 864 contracts (1.31%), and the net long position decreased by 909 contracts (- 0.88%) [4][29]. - **Silver**: The main net long position increased. The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 5,409 contracts (- 1.53%), the short position decreased by 13,453 contracts (- 5.06%), and the net long position increased by 8,044 contracts (9.16%) [5][32]. - **ETF Position**: The SPDR gold ETF position continued to decrease, and the silver ETF position also decreased but was higher than the same period in the past two years [34][37]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased again, COMEX gold warehouse receipts decreased slightly but remained at a high level. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease significantly and were at the lowest level in nearly six years, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease, with New York silver transferred to London [38][39][41].