Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4]. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1,239 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,185 yuan/ton, and the main basis was - 54 yuan. Compared with the previous value, the closing price decreased by 0.56%, the Shahe price decreased by 0.42%, and the basis decreased by 3.57% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash by North China ammonia - soda process was - 92.40 yuan/ton, and that by East China combined - soda process was - 199 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15]. Capacity and Output - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 84.94%. The weekly output was 74.06 tons, including 41 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were significant capacity expansions in the soda ash industry. In 2023, the new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually put into production [21]. Demand Analysis - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash was 99.78% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 161,300 tons, and the operating rate of 76.35% was stable. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continued to decline, and the demand for soda ash weakened [27]. Inventory Analysis - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7021 million tons, an increase of 0.09% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average [34]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, etc. [35]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The daily melting volume of float glass was stable [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The supply of soda ash was at a high level, the terminal demand declined, the inventory was at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry had not been effectively improved [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **PTA**: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher, with a fair negotiation atmosphere in the spot market. The spot basis changed little, and the market's trading focus gradually shifted to November. In the short - term, the absolute price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side, and attention should be paid to the changes in plant operations [5]. - **MEG**: On Tuesday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and declined, and the basis weakened synchronously. Due to the wind - induced port closure this week, the vessel warehousing was postponed, and the apparent inventory is expected to decline slightly early next week. The price rebounded under the influence of news and cost, but the upside is still limited. In the fourth quarter, the overall inventory accumulation of ethylene glycol is around 400,000 tons, and the domestic supply is abundant. After the delivery cycle ends, the spot buying in the trading link will also weaken. It is expected that the price will be adjusted within a range in the short - term, with continuous upward pressure [7]. - **Overall**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored when the market rebounds [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided in the report. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: The fundamentals are neutral. The spot price is 4,535 yuan/ton, the basis of the 01 contract is - 79, and the market is in contango. The PTA factory inventory is 4.07 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing [5][6]. - **MEG**: The fundamentals are neutral. The price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and declined on Tuesday, and the basis weakened. The spot price was at a premium of 69 - 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract in the afternoon. The inventory in East China is 481,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provides the PTA supply - demand balance table from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on PTA production capacity, output, consumption, and inventory [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provides the ethylene glycol supply - demand balance table from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on ethylene glycol production, import, consumption, and port inventory [12]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: On October 28, 2025, compared with the previous day, the spot price of naphtha in CFR Japan increased by 9 dollars/ton to 584.5 dollars/ton; the spot price of p - xylene in CFR Taiwan, China increased by 17 dollars/ton to 854 dollars/ton; the CCFEI price index of PTA in the domestic market decreased by 288 yuan/ton to 4,232 yuan/ton; the CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol in the domestic market decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 4,140 yuan/ton [13]. - **Inventory Data**: The report shows the historical inventory data of PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET bottle - chip inventory, and polyester fiber inventory from 2021 - 2025 [43][45]. - **Profit Data**: The report shows the historical profit data of PTA processing, MEG production, and polyester fiber production from 2022 - 2025 [13][62][64]. - **Operating Rate Data**: The report shows the historical operating rate data of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms from 2020 - 2025 [54][56][58]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] Report's Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market has support below, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Tips - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and tire operating rates are at a high level, with a neutral outlook. The basis is -610 with the spot at 14750, showing a bearish signal. Exchange and Qingdao region inventories are decreasing week - on - week, with the former also decreasing year - on - year and the latter increasing year - on - year, presenting a neutral situation. The price is running above the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is downward, also neutral. The main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish sign. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data Spot Price - The spot price of 23 - year full - latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on October 28 [8] Inventory - Exchange inventories have been continuously decreasing recently, and Qingdao region inventories are also continuously decreasing [14][17] Import - Import volume has rebounded [20] Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales are seasonally rebounding, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are also at a record high for the same period [23][29][32] Basis - The basis strengthened on October 28 [35] Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2、美联储降息。 3、矿端增产缓慢,自由港印尼矿区减产事件 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货21160，基差20，升水期货，偏多。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周跌3860吨至 118168吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，美再扩大钢铝关税，多空交织，铝价震荡运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、美国全面关税超预期。 2、全球经济并不乐 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report anticipates that the Shanghai zinc futures contract ZN2512 will show a trend of fluctuating upward, with the LME zinc inventory and warrants continuing to decline while the SHFE warrants remaining at a high level [2][19]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply and Demand**: In August 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.1507 million tons, and consumption was 1.1717 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, global zinc sheet production was 9.0885 million tons, and consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8.4457 million tons, indicating a bullish outlook [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 22,310, and the basis was 0, showing a neutral stance [2]. - **Inventory**: On October 28, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 35,250 tons, while the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 2,547 tons to 68,271 tons, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - **Market Trend**: The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a fluctuating downward trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending upward, suggesting a bullish outlook [2]. - **Main Position**: The main players held a net short position, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. 3.2 October 28 Zinc Futures Market Quotes - The trading volume of zinc futures on October 28 was 201,703 lots, with a total trading value of 2.25645709 billion yuan. The open interest was 209,097 lots, a decrease of 4,634 lots [3]. 3.3 October 28 Domestic Spot Market Quotes - **Zinc Concentrate**: The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 3,200 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC was 105 US dollars/thousand tons, both remaining unchanged [4]. - **Zinc Ingot**: The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was in the range of 22,260 - 22,360 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,310 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 22,180 - 22,280 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,230 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 22,275 - 22,375 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,325 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 22,305 - 22,405 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,355 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4 National Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (October 16 - 27, 2025) - As of October 27, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 164,700 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons compared to October 20 and an increase of 12,000 tons compared to October 23 [5]. 3.5 October 28 Zinc Futures Warehouse Receipt Report - The total zinc warehouse receipts on the SHFE on October 28 were 68,271 tons, an increase of 2,547 tons. Among them, Guangdong had 38,470 tons, and Tianjin had 29,801 tons [7]. 3.6 October 28 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On October 28, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 35,250 tons, with registered warrants of 28,425 tons and cancelled warrants of 6,825 tons, accounting for 19.36% [8]. 3.7 October 28 National Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - The prices of 50% zinc concentrate in various regions increased by 70 yuan/ton. For example, in Jiyuan, it was 17,390 yuan/ton; in Chenzhou, it was 17,590 yuan/ton [10]. 3.8 October 28 National Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from various smelters increased by 60 yuan/ton. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting was 22,540 yuan/ton; from Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium was 21,970 yuan/ton [13]. 3.9 September 2025 Domestic Refined Zinc Production - In September 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The planned production for October was 509,600 tons [15]. 3.10 October 28 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fees for 50% grade varied by region, ranging from 3,000 to 3,900 yuan/metal ton. The imported processing fee for 48% grade was 105 US dollars/thousand tons [17]. 3.11 October 28 SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2512, the total trading volume of members was 204,047 lots, an increase of 23,222 lots. The total long position was 83,603 lots, an increase of 523 lots, and the total short position was 78,964 lots, a decrease of 114 lots [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The overall view of Shanghai Nickel (SHFE Nickel) 2512 is to adopt a wide - range oscillation strategy around the 20 - day moving average, testing the cost support. The long - term supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, but there are some short - term factors affecting the market [2]. - The view of Stainless Steel 2512 is to operate in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Price Overview - **Nickel Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 28, the price of SHFE Nickel main contract was 120,560 yuan, down 1,840 yuan from the previous day; LME Nickel was 15,245, down 90; the price of Stainless Steel main contract was 12,750 yuan, down 65 yuan. Among spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,150 yuan, down 900 yuan; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 123,400 yuan, down 900 yuan; 1 imported nickel was 121,500 yuan, down 750 yuan; nickel beans were 123,550 yuan, down 750 yuan [11]. - **Stainless Steel Spot Prices**: Cold - rolled coil 304*2B in Wuxi remained at 13,800 yuan; in Foshan, it was 13,750 yuan, down 50 yuan; in Hangzhou, it remained at 13,700 yuan; in Shanghai, it remained at 13,750 yuan [11]. 3.2. Inventory - **Nickel Inventory**: As of October 28, LME nickel inventory was 251,436 tons, an increase of 198 tons; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 31,385 tons, an increase of 1,605 tons; the total inventory was 282,821 tons, an increase of 1,803 tons [14]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: On October 24, the inventory in Wuxi was 601,100 tons, in Foshan was 302,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,027,400 tons, a decrease of 13,800 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 649,300 tons, a decrease of 5,900 tons. As of October 28, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 73,896 tons, unchanged from the previous day [18][19]. 3.3. Cost - **Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices**: On October 28, the price of laterite nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 58 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged; with Ni0.9% was 30 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 11.5 US dollars per ton, unchanged; to Tianjin Port was 12.5 US dollars per ton, unchanged. The price of high - nickel ferronickel was 926.5 yuan per nickel point, down 2 yuan; the price of low - nickel ferronickel was 3,150 yuan per ton, unchanged [23]. - **Stainless Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost was 12,904 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 13,125 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,718 yuan [25]. - **Nickel Import Cost**: The converted import price was 122,324 yuan per ton [28]. 3.4. Fundamental Factors - **Nickel Fundamentals**: The price of nickel ore is firm, the rainy season in the Philippines is approaching, and mines are holding prices. The price of ferronickel is stable with a slight decline, and the cost line has loosened downward. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the overall boost is limited. The long - term supply surplus pattern remains unchanged [2]. - **Stainless Steel Fundamentals**: The spot price of stainless steel has decreased slightly. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is firm, the freight is stable, the price of ferronickel is stable with a slight decline, the cost line has moved down, and the inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly [4]. 3.5. Basis - **Nickel Basis**: The spot price was 122,150 yuan, and the basis was 1,590 yuan, showing a bullish signal [2]. - **Stainless Steel Basis**: The average price of stainless steel was 13,750 yuan, and the basis was 1,000 yuan, showing a bullish signal [4]. 3.6. Market Sentiment (Position) - **Nickel Market Sentiment**: The net position of the main players is short, and the short position has increased, showing a bearish signal [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental outlook for fuel oil prices is weak, lacking stimulating factors. With the halt in the upward trend of upstream crude oil, fuel oil prices have also declined. Future attention should be paid to the extent of sanctions on Russia and the progress of China - US trade negotiations. The FU2601 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2770 - 2810, and the LU2601 contract in the range of 3200 - 3250 [3]. - The market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil has remained at recent levels. However, sufficient supply is expected to suppress the low - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals and limit significant upside in the coming weeks. The strengthening of high - sulfur fuel oil refining margins has curbed refinery raw material demand [3]. Summary by Catalog 1. Daily Hints - The FU2601 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2770 - 2810, and the LU2601 contract in the range of 3200 - 3250 [3]. - The market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil has remained at recent levels, but supply may suppress fundamentals. High - sulfur fuel oil refining margins have curbed refinery demand [3]. - The Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil has a price of 386.01 dollars/ton with a basis of - 12 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil has a price of 445.85 dollars/ton with a basis of - 2 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot is at par with the futures [3]. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of October 22 was 2744.9 million barrels, an increase of 509 million barrels [3]. - The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat. The high - sulfur main position holds short positions with a decrease in shorts, and the low - sulfur main position holds long positions with a decrease in longs [3]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Bullish factors include the extension of Russia's fuel oil export restrictions and the cancellation of US - Russia talks along with sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - Bearish factors are that the optimism on the demand side remains to be verified [4]. - The market is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - The previous value of the FU main contract futures price was 2839, the current value is 2830, a decrease of 9 with a decline rate of - 0.32%. The previous value of the LU main contract futures price was 3250, the current value is 3264, an increase of 14 with an increase rate of 0.43%. The previous value of the FU basis was - 12, the current value is - 20, a decrease of 7 with a decline rate of - 56.82%. The previous value of the LU basis was 24, the current value is - 55, a decrease of 79 with a decline rate of - 331.81% [5]. - The previous value of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil was 471.00, the current value is 466.00, a decrease of 5.00 with a decline rate of - 1.06%. The previous value of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil was 485.00, the current value is 480.00, a decrease of 5.00 with a decline rate of - 1.03%. The previous value of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil was 386.01, the current value is 382.37, a decrease of 3.64 with a decline rate of - 0.94%. The previous value of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil was 449.50, the current value is 441.46, a decrease of 8.04 with a decline rate of - 1.79%. The previous value of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil was 358.80, the current value is 354.63, a decrease of 4.17 with a decline rate of - 1.16%. The previous value of Singapore diesel was 673.74, the current value is 677.44, an increase of 3.70 with an increase rate of 0.55% [6]. 4. Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory on October 22 was 2744.9 million barrels, an increase of 509 million barrels compared to the previous period. Historical data shows fluctuations in inventory from August 13 to October 22 [3][8].

每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：煤矿产能区域性释放困难，加之内蒙地区整体产能受限，供应仍趋紧张。焦炭第二轮提涨 全面落地，炼焦煤市场情绪继续提振，焦企及贸易商进场拿货积极性提高，整体交投氛围良好，煤矿成 交继续改善，加之产地煤矿供应量有不同程度收紧，短期煤价支撑较强；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1330，基差88；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存819.3万吨，总样本库存1895.4万吨， 较上周减少76.2万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净多，多减增；偏多 6、预期：焦炭第二轮提涨落地，对原料价格有一定支撑作用，且焦钢企业仍在积极补库，对炼焦煤刚 性需求不减，但受限于下游利润有限，部分高价资源下游抵触情绪较强，预计短期焦煤价格或暂稳运行。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-29） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2960 - 3020. The US soybean market is affected by trade negotiations and weather, while the domestic soybean meal market is influenced by factors such as imported soybean arrivals and spot - price discounts [9]. - The soybean A2601 is predicted to fluctuate between 4040 - 4140. The domestic soybean market is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand, but is also pressured by factors like Brazilian soybean production and domestic soybean yield expectations [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The soybean meal M2601 is in a neutral position in terms of fundamentals, with a bearish sentiment in basis, a bullish sentiment in inventory, a neutral sentiment in the market trend, and a bearish sentiment in the main - position and expected trends [9]. - The soybean A2601 is neutral in fundamentals, neutral in basis, bearish in inventory, bullish in the market trend, bearish in the main - position, and has a complex expected trend affected by multiple factors [11]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, which is short - term negative for US soybeans. The domestic imported soybean arrivals in October remain high, and the demand for soybean meal has weakened, but the market is still in an oscillating pattern due to uncertainties [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Soybean Meal** - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: high volume of imported soybeans in October and the expected high - yield of US soybeans [14]. - Current main logic: focus on US soybean harvest weather and Sino - US trade tariff game [14]. - **Soybeans** - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans [15]. - Bearish factors: high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and increased procurement, and the expected increase in domestic soybean yield [15]. - Current main logic: focus on US soybean weather and Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread** - The soybean meal futures have rebounded after reaching the bottom, while the spot price is relatively stable, with a small - fluctuating spot discount [23]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level [29]. - **Inventory and Production** - The inventory of oil - mill soybeans remains high, and the soybean meal inventory has declined from the high level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, and the soybean meal production in August increased year - on - year [47][51]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have declined from the high level, and the demand for off - season stockpiling has decreased [49]. - **Supply and Demand Balance** - Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance tables show the changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory over the years [32][33]. - **Sowing and Harvest Progress** - The sowing and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina in different years are presented, including the sowing rate, harvest rate, and other data [34][35][38][39][40][41][42]. - **USDA Reports** - The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports in the past six months show the changes in planting area, yield, production, and other data of soybeans [43]. 5. Position Data - There is no specific content in the given text related to summarizing position data, so this part is skipped.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of lithium carbonate is strong while demand is weak due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11]. - The fundamentals are neutral, the inventory is neutral, the disk is bullish, and the main position is bearish [8]. - There are bullish factors such as manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Bearish factors include high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline and insufficient willingness of power battery ends to take delivery [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,308 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.14%, higher than the historical average level. It is predicted that the production in October 2025 will be 89,890 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.99% [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 104,347 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.49%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 18,592 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.50%. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month and inventory may be depleted [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 78,206 yuan/ton, a daily - on - day increase of 2.03%. The production from it was at a loss. The cost of purchased lepidolite was 81,293 yuan/ton, a daily - on - day increase of 1.44%, and the production was also at a loss. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end with sufficient profit margins [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 130,366 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.72%, higher than the historical average level. The inventory of smelters was 33,681 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.75%, lower than the historical average level. The downstream inventory was 55,275 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.26%, higher than the historical average level. Other inventories were 41,410 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.89% [8]. - **Disk and Position**: The MA20 of the disk was upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish trend. The main position was net short with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish trend [8]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Market Quotes Overview**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of 6% spodumene increased by 2.84% to 906 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.53% to 76,550 yuan/ton [14]. - **Supply - Demand Data Overview**: In terms of supply, the monthly production of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc. showed an increasing trend in general. In terms of demand, the monthly demand for lithium - related products also showed certain changes. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in September 2025 was 87,260 tons, and the monthly demand was - 116,801 tons [17][34]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time. The production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lepidolite has shown different trends in different years [23]. - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has increased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also changed [23]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore has fluctuated, and there has been a supply - demand gap in some months [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, recycling materials) have shown different trends [28]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) and the export volume have changed [28]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has fluctuated, and there has been a supply - demand gap in some months [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and capacity of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) have shown different trends [37]. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium hydroxide from China has changed over the years [37]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has fluctuated, and there has been a supply - demand gap in some months [39]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The production cost and profit of lithium compounds from different raw materials (spodumene, lepidolite, recycled materials) have shown different trends [42][44]. - **Profit of Different Processes**: The profit of processes such as lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide carbonization, and lithium carbonate causticizing to lithium hydroxide has changed [44][47]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects have changed [49]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelters has changed [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price and Production**: The price and monthly production of lithium battery cells have changed, and the monthly power battery loading volume has increased [53]. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed over the years [53]. - **Cost**: The cost of lithium battery cells has changed [53]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price, cost, and profit of ternary precursors have changed, and the processing fee has also changed [59]. - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: The capacity utilization rate and monthly production of ternary precursors have changed [59]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has fluctuated, and there has been a supply - demand gap in some months [62]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price, cost, and profit of ternary materials have changed, and the processing fee has also changed [65]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production, export volume, import volume, and weekly inventory of ternary materials have changed [65][67]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price, production cost, and profit of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed [70]. - **Production and Inventory**: The monthly production and weekly inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed [73][75]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Penetration Rate**: The production, sales, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles have changed [78][79]. - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the dealer inventory warning index and inventory index have changed [82].