1. Report Industrial Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is increasing, with an expected increase in production scheduling next week due to fewer planned maintenance activities. The current demand may remain sluggish, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4915 - 5025. The market outlook is bearish [7][8][9]. - The bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [12][13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 336,105 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.55%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 139,810 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.48%. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.800 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, and films were 36.91%, 32.09%, and 76.92% respectively, with varying degrees of decline compared to the previous period, while the operating rate of downstream paste resin was 74.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.720 percentage points. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 252.2756 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 104.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 488.965 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,690.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.20%, higher than the historical average, which may lead to an increase in production scheduling [8]. - **Other Aspects**: On August 14, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 174 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory was 337,163 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.36%, while social inventory was 480,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.32%. The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions. The overall cost is weakening, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4915 - 5025 [9]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the PVC market, including prices, production, inventory, and operating rates of different regions and methods. For example, the prices of various PVC products in different regions showed varying degrees of decline compared to the previous period, and the production of calcium carbide and ethylene methods both increased [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the PVC futures basis, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [17]. - **Price and Volume Trends**: It presents the price and trading volume trends of PVC futures, including the opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as the moving average trends [21]. - **Spread Analysis**: Analyzes the spread trends of the main contracts of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads [23]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, and inventory trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [26][29][31][33]. - **Supply Trend**: Analyzes the production capacity utilization rate, production, and profit trends of calcium carbide and ethylene methods in PVC production, as well as the daily and weekly production and maintenance volume trends of PVC [38][41]. - **Demand Trend**: Studies the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rate trends of PVC, as well as the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, infrastructure investment, and other macro - economic indicators [43][45][54]. - **Inventory Situation**: Analyzes the inventory trends of exchange warrants, calcium carbide factory warehouses, ethylene factory warehouses, and social inventories, as well as the inventory days of production enterprises [58]. - **Ethylene Method - Related**: Presents the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and relevant price spread trends in the ethylene method [60]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [63].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market shows significant regional differences in expectations. The inland market is expected to be in a tight supply - demand balance and may fluctuate strongly this week. The port market has obvious supply - demand contradictions, with expected continuous inventory accumulation, and is expected to be in a state of fluctuating with both ups and downs. Overall, methanol prices are expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2601 operating in the range of 2400 - 2470 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The domestic methanol market has regional differences. Inland supply increases but with low inventory and external procurement demand from CTO enterprises, it may fluctuate strongly. The port is expected to accumulate inventory due to concentrated shipments from Iran and large - scale olefin plant shutdowns, and is in a fluctuating state. The expected price range for MA2601 this week is 2400 - 2470 [4]. 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Likely to rise**: Some domestic devices are shut down, Iranian methanol production decreases, port inventory is low, new acetic acid plants are put into operation, and northwest CTO factories purchase methanol externally [6]. - **Likely to fall**: Previously shut - down devices resume operation, there will be concentrated ship arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, traditional demand is in the off - season, coal - to - methanol has profit margins and is actively selling goods, and some factories in production areas have inventory accumulation [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot price**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2390 yuan/ton, with a 01 - contract basis of - 45, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: As of August 14, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 89.11 tons, a cumulative increase of 8.78 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas increases by 7.29 tons to 57.12 tons [4]. - **Market price changes**: From August 8 - 14, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased by 1.18%, the futures price decreased by 1.80%. The import cost decreased by 0.42%, and the import spread decreased by 18 yuan/ton [8][9][11][26]. - **Operating rate**: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rate in the northwest is 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% [8]. - **Production profit**: Coal - to - methanol profit increased by 30 yuan/ton, natural - gas - to - methanol profit remained unchanged, and coke - oven - gas - to - methanol profit increased by 329 yuan/ton [20]. - **Downstream product prices**: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged from August 8 - 14 [29]. - **Downstream production profit and load**: Formaldehyde production is at a loss, with a load increase of 0.90%. Dimethyl ether production has a profit decrease of 36 yuan/ton, with a load increase of 0.82%. Acetic acid production loss decreased by 15 yuan/ton, with a load increase of 1.94%. MTO production loss decreased by 90 yuan/ton, with a load increase of 0.15% [33][36][40][45]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in maintenance, shutdown, or production - reduction states, with varying maintenance start and end times and different weekly maintenance losses [56]. - **Foreign devices**: Some Iranian methanol devices are in the process of restarting or have uncertain recovery status, while most devices in other countries are operating normally, and some are in the maintenance period [57]. - **Olefin devices**: Some olefin devices are in maintenance or shutdown states, while most are operating normally, and some have plans for future maintenance or production expansion [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is in a state of over - supply due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 83380 - 87220. The overall fundamentals are neutral, with both positive and negative factors present [8][12]. - Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut and suspension plans, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene [10]. - Negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore/salt lake sources with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery sector to take delivery [11]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,980 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Demand Side**: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,598 tons, a 0.99% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,559 tons, a 0.36% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 79,732 yuan/ton, a 0.88% daily increase, with a production profit of 1,114 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 83,715 yuan/ton, a 1.26% daily increase, with a production loss of 4,942 yuan/ton; the production cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On August 14, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 3,300 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 49,693 tons, a 2.56% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 48,283 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 44,280 tons, a 2.36% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 142,256 tons, a 0.11% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average, showing a neutral signal [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Expectation**: In July 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 physical tons, a 3.27% month - on - month increase; in July 2025, the lithium carbonate import volume was 18,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 18,500 physical tons, a 2.78% month - on - month increase. On the demand side, it is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted. On the cost side, the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased, lower than the historical average. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 83380 - 87220 [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview of Lithium Carbonate**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,000 yuan/ton, a 1.23% increase from the previous value [15]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 63.92%, unchanged from the previous value. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 tons, a 4.41% increase from the previous value. The import volume of lithium concentrate decreased, and the production from different sources such as spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake showed different trends [17]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 252,200 tons, a 9.70% increase from the previous value. The monthly production of ternary precursor was 30,990 tons (622 type), a 7.08% increase from the previous value. The monthly power battery loading volume decreased, with the lithium iron phosphate loading volume increasing by 1.87% and the ternary battery loading volume decreasing by 5.27% [17]. - **Inventory Data**: The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 142,256 tons, a 0.11% week - on - week decrease. The smelter inventory decreased by 2.56%, and the downstream inventory increased by 0.26% [17]. - **Cost - Profit Data**: The cost and profit of different lithium compounds vary. For example, the production profit of purchased spodumene concentrate was 1,114 yuan/ton, while the production of purchased lithium mica resulted in a loss of 4,942 yuan/ton [8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年8月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14800，基差-835 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比减少，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线走平，价格20日线下运行 偏空 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，短多交易 青岛保税区美元报价 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、青岛地区未季节性去库 • 风险点 • 世界经 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润修复，行业冷修速度放缓，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；深加工 订单不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1088元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1220元/吨，基差为-132元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6342.60万重量箱，较前一周增加2.55%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向上；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：宏观利好消退，玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-8-15 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 利空： ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened due to expected short - term inventory increases, with the spot spread of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel reaching the lowest discount level in over four months. The high - sulfur marine fuel demand from downstream remains relatively stable. [3] - The market is waiting for the meeting between the US and Russian leaders. Oil prices have stabilized and rebounded, but the terminal rigid demand boost is insufficient. The bearish sentiment in the fuel market is obvious, and fuel is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level. The FU2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2700 - 2740, and the LU2510 contract in the range of 3430 - 3480. [3] - The行情 is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakens due to inventory increase expectations; high - sulfur marine fuel demand is relatively stable, neutral. [3] - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is $388.47/ton with a basis of 176 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur is $480.5/ton with a basis of 88 yuan/ton, spot premium over futures, bullish. [3] - **Inventory**: Singapore fuel oil inventory on the week of August 13 was 2263.9 million barrels, an increase of 189 million barrels, bearish. [3][8] - **Disk**: Prices are below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, bearish. [3] - **Main positions**: High - sulfur main positions are short, and short positions increase; low - sulfur main positions are long, changing from short to long. [3] - **Expectations**: The fuel market is expected to oscillate at a low level. FU2509: 2700 - 2740 range; LU2510: 3430 - 3480 range. [3] 3.2 Multi - Short Concerns - **Likely to rise**: Sanctions against Russia may be intensified. [4] - **Likely to fall**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak. [4] - **Market driver**: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral. [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - The report provides information on the basis of Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil, with the spot premium over futures, indicating a bullish signal in terms of basis. [3] 3.4 Spread Data No specific spread data analysis is provided other than a graphical display of the high - low sulfur futures spread. [12] 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from June 4 to August 13 is provided, showing that the inventory on the week of August 13 was 2263.9 million barrels, an increase of 189 million barrels compared to the previous period. [3][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Zinc futures decline in a volatile manner, closing with a negative candlestick and shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with short positions decreasing slightly more. Overall, it was a decline on shrinking volume. As the price dropped, long - position holders exited to wait and see, while short - position holders were more active in exiting. Therefore, the market may experience a short - term volatile consolidation. Technically, the price closed above the long - term moving average, with strong support from the moving average. The short - term indicator KDJ declined and was operating in the strong zone. The trend indicator declined, with both long and short forces rising, and the dominance of short forces expanding. The operation suggestion is that the Shanghai Zinc ZN2509 will be in a volatile consolidation phase. [23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, global zinc plate production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. In April, global zinc plate production was 1.0722 million tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, which is a positive factor. [2] 3.2 Basis - The spot price was 22,530, and the basis was +50, indicating a neutral situation. [2] 3.3 Inventory - On August 14, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,025 tons to 77,450 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 905 tons to 17,097 tons compared to the previous day, showing a neutral situation. [2] 3.4 Market Trends - On August 14, the zinc futures of various delivery months on the futures exchange generally showed a downward trend. For example, the contract 2509 had a previous settlement price of 22,670, an opening price of 22,600, a high of 22,640, a low of 22,430, a closing price of 22,480, and a settlement reference price of 22,540, with a decline of 190. [3] 3.5 Spot Market - On August 14, the prices of zinc - related products in the domestic main spot markets mostly declined. For example, the price of zinc concentrate in a certain area was 17,160 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot was 22,530 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. [4] 3.6 Social Inventory of Zinc Ingots - From August 4 to August 14, 2025, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased. The total inventory on August 4 was 87,200 tons, and it increased to 110,100 tons on August 14. [6] 3.7 Zinc Warehouse Receipts - On August 14, the total zinc warehouse receipts on the futures exchange were 17,097 tons, an increase of 905 tons compared to the previous day. [8] 3.8 LME Zinc Inventory - On August 14, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,025 tons. [9] 3.9 Zinc Concentrate Prices - On August 14, the prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities mostly declined by 40 yuan/ton. [11] 3.10 Zinc Ingot Smelter Prices - On August 14, the prices of zinc ingots from major domestic smelters mostly declined by 50 yuan/ton. [15] 3.11 Refined Zinc Production - In June 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production for July was 470,300 tons. [18] 3.12 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees - On August 14, the zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions varied. For example, in some areas, the average processing fee for 50% - grade zinc concentrate was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, with some increases or no changes. [20] 3.13 Trading and Position Ranking - On August 14, the total trading volume of zinc futures contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 121,741, a decrease of 1,171 compared to the previous day. The total long - position volume was 53,485, a decrease of 2,753, and the total short - position volume was 53,278, a decrease of 3,231. [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, due to sustained low processing margins, recent changes in PTA plants have increased. However, in terms of price, the cost side lacks support and downstream polyester demand is average during the off - season. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will stabilize. Attention should be paid to subsequent PTA plant and downstream polyester load changes [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory will be adjusted widely within the month, and the increase lacks sustainability. The arrival volume of foreign ships will decrease around the middle of the month. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol will be basically balanced from August to September, and demand support will gradually strengthen over time. The fundamental structure of ethylene glycol is moderately positive, and it is expected that the short - term low - level support for ethylene glycol will be strong. Follow - up attention should be paid to plant changes [7]. - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the upward rebound of the market, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided 3.2. Daily Tips - PTA: The PTA futures followed the cost side down yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, with polyester factories as the main buyers. The spot basis was differentiated. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 - 14. The spot price is 4646, and the 09 - contract basis is 6, with the futures price at a discount. PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [5]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level, and the market trading was active. The night - session ethylene glycol market adjusted narrowly. In the morning, affected by the Shenghong Refining and Chemical plant, the market briefly rebounded, and buying interest was active. Then the market declined and adjusted, and polyester factories actively participated in price - fixing in the afternoon. The spot basis strengthened synchronously, and by the end of the session, the spot negotiation price was at a premium of 85 - 88 yuan/ton to the 09 - contract. In terms of US dollars, the external market price of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level, and the recent mainstream trading price of ship cargoes was around 522 - 526 US dollars/ton, with transactions around 522 - 524 US dollars/ton, and some traders participated in purchases. The spot price is 4465, and the 09 - contract basis is 98, with the futures price at a discount. The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [7][8]. 3.3. Today's Focus - No relevant content provided 3.4. Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the supply - demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, PTA consumption, and ending inventory [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the supply - demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including ethylene glycol total operating rate, output, import, total supply, polyester production, ethylene glycol consumption, and port inventory [12]. 3.5. Price - The report provides data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization, and inventory from 2020 to 2025. It also shows the price spreads of PTA (TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, TA9 - 1), PTA basis, MEG month - to - month spreads (EG1 - 5, EG5 - 9, EG9 - 1), MEG basis, spot spreads (TA - EG, p - xylene processing spread) [14][17][21][22][24][27][30][34][37]. 3.6. Inventory Analysis - The report analyzes the inventory of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and various types of polyester fibers from 2021 to 2025, including factory - level inventory and port inventory [40][41][43]. 3.7. Polyester Upstream and Downstream开工 - It shows the operating rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and PTA - related industries from 2020 to 2025 [51][55]. 3.8. Processing Fees and Profits - The report provides data on PTA processing fees, MEG production profits from different production methods (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, ethylene - based), and production margins of polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) from 2022 to 2025 [59][62][65].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is expected to be volatile today. The domestic supply of urea is still in significant oversupply, with high daily production and开工 rates, and inventory has increased again. Industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but international urea prices are strong, and export policies have not been more liberal than expected [4]. - The main logic for market trends is the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policies [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been volatile recently, returning to fundamentals after the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled. Domestic supply has high daily production and开工 rates, and inventory has increased. Industrial demand (such as for compound fertilizers and melamine) and agricultural demand are both expected to decline. The overall domestic supply of urea exceeds demand, while export profits are strengthening, and export policies have not been more liberal than expected. The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 84, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.6%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 145.9 million tons (-1.8), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is volatile. International urea prices are strong, export policies have not been more liberal than expected, and the domestic supply is still in significant oversupply. It is expected that UR will be volatile today [4]. - **Leverage and Risks**: Bullish factors include strong international prices; bearish factors include high开工 and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market and Inventory Data - **Spot Market**: The price of the spot delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), Shandong spot is 1820 (+10), Henan spot is 1810 (unchanged), and FOB China is 2746 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The 01 contract price is 1726 (-21), the UR05 contract price is 1771 (-17), and the UR09 contract price is 1715 (-11). The basis is 84 (+21) [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 3823 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 145.9 million tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 101.9 million tons, and UR port inventory is 44.0 million tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2024, the urea industry has shown continuous growth in production capacity, production, and consumption. The production capacity growth rates from 2019 - 2024 are 8.9%, 15.5%, 11.4%, 8.4%, 14.1%, and 13.5% respectively. The consumption growth rates from 2019 - 2024 are 12.8%, 17.9%, 2.6%, 0.3%, 5.9%, and 8.4% respectively. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-8-15 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，7 月中国官方制造业 PMI 为 49.3%，环比降 0.4 个百分点，连续 4 个月收缩，财新7月制造业 PMI 从 50.4 降至 49.5，同样收缩，7 月出口 3217.8 亿美元，同 比增 7.2%。"反内卷"政策推动商品预期改善，但情绪降温后回归基本面。短期油价震荡回落。 供需端，农膜淡季，短期开工略有恢复，但仍处于偏低水平。当前LL交割品现货价7280（+0）， 基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差-63，升贴水比例-0.9%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存50.5万吨（-7.1），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE ...