交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年8月14日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33.4372%，环比减少1.32个百分点， 全国样本企业出货28.03万吨，环比增加2.90%,样本企业产量为55.8万吨，环比减少3.79%, 样本企业装置检修量预估为61.6万吨，环比增加1.99%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。 下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为31.7%，环比减少0.04个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥 青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为15.8681% ...

Report Information - Report Title: PVC Futures Morning Report - Report Date: August 14, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Supply pressure increased this week and is expected to continue rising next week due to reduced maintenance and increased production scheduling [8]. - Current demand may remain sluggish, with downstream overall and some product开工率 below historical averages [8]. - Both calcium carbide and ethylene production methods are in a state of loss, but the double - ton price difference is higher than the historical average, which may lead to increased production scheduling [8]. - The base price indicates that the spot is at a discount to the futures, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The main position holds a net short position, and the shorts are increasing [8]. - PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4961 - 5071, and continuous attention should be paid to macro - policies and export dynamics [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - **Supply**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 336,105 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.55%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 139,810 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.48%. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly [8]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream开工率 was 42.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.80 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Some downstream product开工率 such as profiles, pipes, and films decreased month - on - month, while the paste resin开工率 increased. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are advantageous, but current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - **Cost**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 252.2756 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase in losses of 104.00%. The profit of the ethylene method was - 488.965 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase in losses of 2.00%. The double - ton price difference was 2683.25 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, higher than the historical average, which may lead to increased production scheduling [8]. - **Basis**: On August 13, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 217 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Bearish [8]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 337,163 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.36%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 259,778 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.49%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 77,385 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.62%. Social inventory was 480,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.32%. The number of days of inventory in production enterprises was 5.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 3.44%. Bearish [8]. - **Disk**: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. Neutral [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position held a net short position, and the shorts increased. Bearish [8]. - **Expectation**: The cost of both calcium carbide and ethylene methods weakened, and the overall cost weakened. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4961 - 5071 [8]. 2. PVC Futures Market - **Yesterday's Market Overview**: The report provides detailed data on yesterday's PVC futures and spot prices, spreads, inventory,开工率, and other indicators [15]. - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trend chart of PVC futures, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [17]. - **Spread Analysis**: Analyzes the spread of the main PVC futures contracts, which is of reference value for hedging and arbitrage [23]. 3. PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Semi - coke**: It shows the price, cost - profit,开工率, and inventory trends of semi - coke materials used in the calcium carbide method from 2022 to 2025 [27]. - **Calcium Carbide Method - Calcium Carbide**: Presents the price, cost - profit,开工率, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide from 2019 to 2025 [30]. - **Calcium Carbide Method - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: Displays the price and production trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [32]. - **Calcium Carbide Method - Caustic Soda**: Analyzes the price, cost - profit,开工率, production, maintenance volume, and inventory trends of 32% caustic soda in Shandong from 2019 to 2025 [34]. - **Calcium Carbide Method - Caustic Soda (Comprehensive)**: Further analyzes the cost - profit, apparent consumption, double - ton price difference, and inventory trends of caustic soda in Shandong from 2019 to 2025 [37]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC from 2018 to 2025 [38]. - **PVC Demand Trend**: Analyzes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average开工率, and开工率 of various downstream products of PVC from 2019 to 2025 [43]. - **PVC Inventory**: Displays the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [59]. - **Ethylene Method**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB price difference of the ethylene method, and import price difference of vinyl chloride from 2018 to 2025 [61]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Provides the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025 [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental aspect of lithium carbonate is neutral. The supply side shows an increasing trend, with the production in July 2025 at 81,530 physical tons and a predicted production of 84,200 physical tons in the next month, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%. The import volume in July 2025 was 18,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 18,500 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.78%. The demand side is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The cost side shows that the CIF price of 6% concentrate has a daily increase, lower than the historical average level. The supply - demand pattern is turning to demand - led, and the lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 83,220 - 86,980 [8]. - The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [12]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,556 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.24%, higher than the historical average level. In July 2025, the production was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 84,200 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.27% [8]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,598 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.99%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,559 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.36%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 79,038 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.24%, with a production profit of 825 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lepidolite is 82,676 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.28%, with a production loss of 4,848 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On August 13, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4,100 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 50,999 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84%, lower than the historical average level; the downstream inventory was 48,159 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.95%, higher than the historical average level; other inventories were 43,260 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.41%, higher than the historical average level; the total inventory was 142,418 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.49%, higher than the historical average level, showing a neutral signal [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other products have shown different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of lithium ore (01) increased from 81,320 to 84,480, an increase of 3,160, or 3.89%. The price of lithium carbonate (04) increased from 78,880 to 82,540, an increase of 3,660, or 4.64% [14]. - **Basis Changes**: The basis of various products has also changed. For example, the basis of ternary materials (01) decreased from - 3,320 to - 3,480, a decrease of 160, or 4.82% [14]. 3.3 Supply - Related - **Lithium Ore Supply**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time. The production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lepidolite has shown different trends in different years. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has also changed, with the import volume from Australia and other regions showing different trends. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also fluctuated [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate Supply**: The weekly and monthly production, import volume, and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium辉石, lithium云母, salt lake, recycling) have changed over time. The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate has shown different trends, and the import volume from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has also changed [28]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Supply**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide have changed over time. The production from different sources (smelting, causticizing) and the total production have also shown different trends [37]. 3.4 Cost - Profit Related - The cost and profit of various lithium compounds (purchased spodumene concentrate, purchased lepidolite, recycled lithium carbonate from different sources, etc.) have changed over time. For example, the cost and profit of purchased spodumene concentrate (Li₂O:6%) have fluctuated, and the cost and profit of recycled lithium carbonate from different types of black powder have also shown different trends [43][46]. 3.5 Inventory - Related - The inventory of lithium carbonate (smelter, downstream, other, total) and lithium hydroxide (downstream, smelter, total) has changed over time. The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide has shown different trends [51]. 3.6 Demand - Related - **Lithium Battery Demand**: The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries have changed over time. The monthly production of battery cells, the loading volume of power batteries (lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials), and the export volume of lithium batteries have shown different trends [54]. - **Ternary Precursor Demand**: The price, cost, profit, production, and export volume of ternary precursors have changed over time. The price of different types of ternary precursors (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) has fluctuated, and the cost, profit, and production have also shown different trends [60]. - **Ternary Material Demand**: The price, cost, profit, production, and export volume of ternary materials have changed over time. The price of different types of ternary materials (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) has fluctuated, and the cost, profit, and production have also shown different trends [66]. - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium Demand**: The price, production, cost, profit, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed over time. The price of different types of phosphoric acid iron lithium (power - type, low - end energy - storage type) has fluctuated, and the production, cost, profit, and inventory have also shown different trends [70]. - **New Energy Vehicle Demand**: The production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, and inventory of new energy vehicles have changed over time. The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) have shown different trends, and the sales penetration rate and inventory have also changed [78].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The rapeseed meal is expected to be in a strong and volatile short - term pattern due to the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. It is predicted to oscillate between 2600 and 2660 in the RM2601 contract, and the market should pay attention to subsequent developments [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt No content is provided for this part. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the tight supply expectation in the spot market, while the demand side maintains a good outlook [10]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is being levied. The final ruling is yet to be determined, depending on the development of China - Canada trade relations [10]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly affected by the reduction in EU rapeseed production and lower - than - expected production in Canada [10]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise in the future, providing support for commodities [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposit; the inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills is not significant [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [11]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance tables from 2014 - 2023 show the changes in harvest area, production, inventory, and other indicators over the years [23][24]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 3.2 tons, up 18.52% week - on - week and 14.29% year - on - year [8]. - **Price**: The spot price of rapeseed meal is 2680, with a basis of - 8, indicating a discount to the futures. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and trending upwards [8]. - **Import Situation**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in August is lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuates slightly [25]. - **Oil Mill Situation**: The rapeseed inventory in oil mills has dropped to a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory remains low. The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills has increased slightly [27][29]. - **Aquatic Product Market**: Aquatic fish prices fluctuate slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [37]. 3.5 Position Data The short positions of the main contract have decreased, and funds have flowed out [8].

report industry investment rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. core view of the report - For Shanghai Nickel 2509, it is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The long - term supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, but there are short - term factors affecting the price [3][4]. - For Stainless Steel 2510, it is expected to operate with a slight upward trend [5]. summary according to relevant catalogs nickel daily view - **fundamentals**: The external market rose and then fell, with support at the 20 - day moving average. Last week, there was an arrival of Norwegian nickel slabs, increasing supply. The ore price was stable, the ferronickel price rose slightly, and the cost line rebounded slightly. Stainless steel inventory decreased slightly. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the proportion of ternary battery installations decreased. The long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged, showing a bearish outlook [4]. - **basis**: The spot price was 123,800, and the basis was 1,460, showing a bullish outlook [4]. - **inventory**: LME inventory was 211,098 (- 648), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 20,578 (- 115), showing a bearish outlook [4]. - **market**: The closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, showing a bullish outlook [4]. - **main position**: The main position was net short, and short positions increased, showing a bearish outlook [4]. stainless steel daily view - **fundamentals**: The spot stainless steel price decreased. In the short term, the nickel ore price was stable, the shipping cost decreased slightly, the ferronickel price rose slightly, and the cost line increased slightly. Stainless steel inventory decreased, showing a neutral outlook [5]. - **basis**: The average stainless steel price was 13,850, and the basis was 720, showing a bullish outlook [5]. - **inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts were 103,518 (- 422), showing a bearish outlook [5]. - **market**: The closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, showing a bullish outlook [5]. price overview - **nickel**: On August 13, the Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 122,340 (- 100), the LME nickel closed at 15,240 (- 120). The spot prices of SMM1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, 1 imported nickel, and nickel beans all increased to varying degrees [13]. - **stainless steel**: On August 13, the stainless steel main contract closed at 13,130 (- 70). The spot prices of cold - rolled 304*2B in Wuxi, Hangzhou, and Shanghai decreased, while that in Foshan remained unchanged [13]. inventory situation - **nickel**: As of August 8, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,194 tons, with futures inventory at 20,621 tons. On August 13, LME inventory was 211,098 (- 648), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 20,578 (- 115) [15][16]. - **stainless steel**: On August 8, the inventory in Wuxi was 61,620 tons, in Foshan was 330,800 tons, and the national inventory was 1,106,300 tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, the inventory of the 300 - series was 657,600 tons, a decrease of 19,100 tons. On August 13, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 103,518 (- 422) [20][21]. price of nickel ore and ferronickel - The price of laterite nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% and Ni0.9% remained unchanged at 57 and 29 US dollars per wet ton respectively on August 13 compared to August 12. The shipping costs from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained unchanged. The price of high - nickel ferronickel increased by 1.5 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel ferronickel remained unchanged [24]. stainless steel production cost - The traditional production cost was 12,946, the scrap steel production cost was 13,704, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,552 [26]. nickel import cost - The converted import price was 123,027 yuan per ton [29]. factors affecting prices - **bullish factors**: Expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" season and anti - involution policies [8]. - **bearish factors**: The domestic production continued to increase significantly year - on - year, there were no new demand growth points, the long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged. The nickel ore and ferronickel prices were weakly stable, and the cost line was still at a low level. The substitution ratio of ternary batteries increased [8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年8月14日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC8月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA8月报：25/26年 度产量2539.2万吨，消费2568.8万吨，期末库存1609.3万吨。海关：7月纺织品服装出口 267.7亿美元，同比下降0.1%。6月份我国棉花进口3万吨，同比减少82.1%；棉纱进口11万 吨，同比增加0.1%。农村部7月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨， 期末库存823万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15188，基差1058（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-14） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：近期下游市场观望情绪再起，中间环节离市现象增多，下游焦企采购节奏放缓，近期主流 煤企线上竞拍成交涨跌互现，但因产地多数煤矿暂有前期订单拉运，短期煤价支撑较强，但部分焦企考 虑煤价已涨至高位有谨慎签单的情况；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1200，基差-45；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存791.1万吨，港口库存321.5万吨，独立焦企库存790.2万吨，总样本库存1902.8万吨， 较上周增加45.9万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：部分钢厂接涨焦炭第六轮，钢厂开工高位，焦炭刚需支撑较强，且焦企出货顺畅， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is relatively high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have eased, which impacts the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views on Different Oils Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production decline falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that Malaysian palm oil export data for this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,656, with a basis of 80, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,350 - 8,750 [2]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,525, with a basis of 35, indicating a neutral situation [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,150, with a basis of 86, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,800 - 10,200 [4]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is the palm oil production reduction season [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Edible oil prices are historically high, and domestic edible oil inventories are continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. - **Current Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]. Supply and Demand Indicators - **Supply Indicators**: Include import soybean inventory [6], soybean oil inventory [8], soybean meal inventory [10], oil mill soybean crushing [12], palm oil inventory [17], rapeseed oil inventory [20], rapeseed inventory [22], and total domestic edible oil inventory [24]. - **Demand Indicator**: Soybean oil apparent consumption [14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, the domestic inventory starts to increase, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and short - long trading is recommended [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, the domestic inventory starts to increase, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and short - long trading is recommended [4] 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is high. The spot price is resistant to decline, and the domestic anti - involution situation exists. Automobile production and sales are seasonally declining, and tire production is at a record high in the same period, while tire industry exports are falling [4][6][23][29] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased week - on - week and year - on - year. The inventory in Qingdao area has decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year. The exchange inventory has increased recently, and the Qingdao area inventory has changed slightly [4][14][17] - **Price**: The spot price of 23 - year full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on August 13th, and the Qingdao Free Trade Zone has US dollar quotes [8][11] 3. Multiple and Short Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot price, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall**: Increasing supply and non - seasonal destocking in Qingdao area [6] 4. Basis - The spot price is 14,800, and the basis is - 1,000, showing a bearish signal. The basis strengthened on August 13th [4][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon supply production scheduling has increased, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has risen. Industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8640 - 9040 [6]. - For polysilicon, supply production scheduling continues to increase, demand shows continuous recovery overall, and cost support remains stable. Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50315 - 53285 [8]. - The main bullish factors are cost - upward support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - reduction plans; the main bearish factors are slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply but weak demand in downstream polysilicon. The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11][12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, industrial silicon supply was 84,000 tons, a 3.70% increase; demand was 78,000 tons, an 11.43% increase. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, while components are profitable. Silicone inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 479 yuan/ton, and its comprehensive开工率 is 74.84%, flat compared to the previous period and higher than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level, with an import loss of 612 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum开工率 is at a low level. The cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 production in Xinjiang is in a loss state, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - **Basis**: On August 12, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 360 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 547,000 tons, a 1.30% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 170,050 tons, a 0.81% decrease; major port inventory was 118,000 tons, a 0.84% decrease [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [6]. - **Expectation**: Industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8640 - 9040 [6]. 3.2 Daily Views - Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, polysilicon production was 29,400 tons, a 10.94% increase, and the August production schedule is expected to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase compared to the previous month. Silicon wafer production, battery cell production, and component production are showing different trends. The average cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,280 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9,720 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On August 12, the price of N - type dense material was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4800 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 233,000 tons, a 1.74% increase, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and long positions are decreasing [8]. - **Expectation**: Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50315 - 53285 [8]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: The prices of most futures contracts decreased, and the basis, inventory, production, and开工率 of different regions and specifications showed different changes [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of most futures contracts decreased, and the prices, production, inventory, and profit of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also changed [17]. 3.4 Other Charts and Tables - **Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: Showed the historical trends of the basis and the spread between 421 and 553 of industrial silicon [20]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: Displayed the historical inventory changes of industrial silicon in different regions and types [22]. - **Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends**: Presented the historical production and开工率 changes of industrial silicon in different regions and specifications [26]. - **Industrial Silicon Component Cost Trends**: Showed the historical price trends of electricity, silica, graphite electrodes, and reducing agents in the main production areas [31]. - **Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends**: Displayed the historical cost and profit trends of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang [33]. - **Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Tables**: Presented the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance situations of industrial silicon [35][38]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon**: Included price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [41][43][46]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy**: Included price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends related to aluminum alloy [49][52][54]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon**: Included cost, price, inventory, production, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [60][63][66].