交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-23） 每日观点 焦煤： 6、预期：铁水近期虽有小幅下滑，但总体仍在高位，刚需仍有支撑，下游库存暂时处于安全位置，但 近期考虑焦煤供应有收紧预期，部分采购计划有增加预期，但由于焦钢盈利状况普遍不佳，多数仍维持 按需采购为主，预计短期焦煤价格或暂稳运行。 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：部分煤矿因环保及安监趋严有所停产，加之供给端煤矿近日事故仍零星发生，区域性供应 有所缩减。贸易商询盘与实际成交订单稍有增加，煤矿出货顺畅，煤企焦煤库存有不同程度下滑，考虑 到目前煤矿厂内焦煤库存低位，且焦钢企业对部分优质资源采购力度不减，带动部分煤种有明显上涨现 象；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1300，基差90.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures fluctuate, closing with a doji star, accompanied by shrinking trading volume. In terms of positions, long positions slightly decreased while short positions increased, indicating a rebound on shrinking volume. The price rebounded but long - position holders exited to wait and see, while short - position holders continued to enter the market to suppress. In the short term, the market may fluctuate repeatedly. Technically, the price closed below the long - term moving average with weak support from the moving average. The short - term KDJ indicator rose and was operating in the weak zone. The trend indicator declined, with both long and short forces increasing, and the dominance of short forces narrowing. The operation suggestion is that the Shanghai zinc contract ZN2512 will fluctuate and rebound [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information - In August 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1507 million tons, consumption was 1.1717 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, global zinc plate production was 9.0885 million tons, consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8.4457 million tons [2]. 2. Basis Information - The spot price was 21,930 yuan, and the basis was - 70 yuan, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory Information - On October 22, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,975 tons to 35,300 tons compared with the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 1,059 tons to 65,209 tons compared with the previous day [2]. 4. Futures Market Quotes - On October 22, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange totaled 160,966 lots, with a total trading value of 1.77017246 billion yuan, and the total open interest was 229,833 lots, an increase of 299 lots [3]. 5. Domestic Spot Market Quotes - On October 22, the prices of zinc - related products in the domestic spot market showed different trends. For example, the price of zinc concentrate was 17,080 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots was 21,930 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheets was 3,963 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipes was 4,358 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [4]. 6. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From October 9 to October 20, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets increased from 136,200 tons to 162,900 tons. Compared with October 13, it increased by 9,400 tons; compared with October 16, it increased by 7,300 tons [5]. 7. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report - On October 22, the total zinc warrants on the futures exchange were 65,209 tons, a decrease of 1,059 tons compared with the previous day. Among them, the warrants in Guangdong were 37,874 tons (unchanged), in Jiangsu were 323 tons (a decrease of 99 tons), and in Tianjin were 27,012 tons (a decrease of 960 tons) [6]. 8. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On October 21, the total LME zinc inventory was 35,300 tons, a decrease of 1,975 tons compared with the previous day. The inventory in Singapore was 33,850 tons, a decrease of 1,975 tons; the inventory in Port Klang was 1,325 tons (unchanged); the inventory in Hong Kong was 125 tons (unchanged) [8]. 9. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - On October 22, the prices of zinc ingots from major domestic smelters all decreased by 40 yuan/ton. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting was 22,170 yuan/ton, from Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry was 22,600 yuan/ton, and from Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan was 21,900 yuan/ton [13]. 10. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - In September 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 506,800 tons, the actual production was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The production was 1.35% lower than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 74.80%. The planned production in October was 509,600 tons [16]. 11. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - On October 22, the processing fees for zinc concentrates in different regions showed different levels. For domestic zinc concentrates with a grade of 50%, the average processing fee in different regions ranged from 3,100 to 3,800 yuan/metal ton; for imported zinc concentrates with a grade of 48%, the average processing fee was 105 US dollars/dry ton [18]. 12. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2512 on October 22, the total trading volume of members was 160,980 lots, a decrease of 2,283 lots compared with the previous day; the total long positions were 88,461 lots, a decrease of 131 lots; the total short positions were 94,885 lots, an increase of 1,036 lots [19].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年10月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格持平，短期镍矿价格坚，海运费回落，镍铁价格下降，成本线下移，不锈钢 库存小幅回落。中性 2、基差：不锈钢平均价格13737.5，基差1027.5，偏多 3、库存：期货仓单：74376，-121，中性 4、盘面：收盘价在20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、结论：不锈钢2512：20均线上下宽幅震荡运行。 多空因素 影响因素总结 沪镍 每日观点 6、结论：沪镍2512：宽幅震荡思路，逢高仍可试空。 1、基本面：外盘小幅震荡，20均线压力较大。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，菲律宾雨季慢慢来临，矿山 挺价，海运费最近有小幅下降。镍铁价格回落，成本线有所下移。不锈钢库存小幅回落，节后再次开始 去库存。新能 ...

CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年10月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 黄金 1、基本面：特朗普称取消与普京见面，黄金继续下跌；美国三大股指全线收跌，欧 洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率普遍下跌，10年期美债收益率跌2.49个基点 报3.953%；美元指数跌0.06%报98.91，离岸人民币对美元小幅升值报7.1257；COMEX 黄金期货涨0.18%报4116.60美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货952.56，现货950.25，基差-2.31，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单87015千克，日环比增加450千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年10月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8月份预估高出120万吨。 StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩277万吨。ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1 万吨，比之前预计缺口大幅减少。2025年8月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨； 全国累计销糖1000万吨；销糖率89.6%。2025年9月中国进口食糖55万吨，同比增加15万吨；进口 糖浆及预混粉等三项合计15.14万吨，同比减少13.51万吨。偏空。 2、基差：柳州现货5 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年10月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡上行，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差偏弱，个别主流供应商有出货，贸易商商谈为主，成交 量尚可。10月货在01贴水85~90附近成交，价格商谈区间在4340~4400附近。11月上成交量增多，在01贴水-80有成交，11月下在 01-70有成交。今日主流现货基差在01-88。中性 5、主力持仓：净空 空增 偏空 6、预期：新装置投产在即，现货基差继续走弱，不过接近无风险套利，且有个别主流PTA供应商装置降负，预计后续基差下行 空间有限，绝对价格方面，预计短期内仍跟随成本端震荡运行，关注下游产销 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年10月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | | . | ， | 环比有所增加2 . | 06% 。 | | | 9万吨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 需求端来看 ， 多晶硅库存为25 3万吨 . | 上周工业硅需求为7 ， | 处于高位 ， | 4万吨 . | 环比减少9 ， 硅片亏损 ， | 75% . . 电池片亏损 ， | 需求持续低迷 组件盈利 | . ； | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the supply, demand, cost, and inventory aspects of the lithium carbonate market. It points out that the market is currently in a state of over - supply with weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 75,100 - 76,860 yuan/ton [8][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,066 tons, a 2.08% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The predicted production for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% month - on - month increase. The import volume in September 2025 was 20,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 tons, a 10.00% month - on - month increase [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium sample enterprises was 102,818 tons, a 0.95% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,963 tons, a 0.64% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 74,936 yuan/ton, a 0.21% day - on - day increase, resulting in a loss of 1,870 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 77,947 yuan/ton, a 0.60% day - on - day increase, resulting in a loss of 6,903 yuan/ton [8]. - **Overall Judgment**: The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bearish, the inventory is neutral, the disk is bullish, and the main position is bearish. The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 75,100 - 76,860 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price and Basis**: The prices of various contracts and their basis showed different degrees of change, with the basis of some contracts narrowing and others widening [13]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, and other upstream products showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 0.35% to 854 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.14% to 74,100 yuan/ton [13]. - **Positive Factors**: There are plans for manufacturers to stop or reduce production, the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile has decreased month - on - month, and the import volume of lithium spodumene has declined [9]. - **Negative Factors**: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains high with limited decline, and the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [10]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price**: The price of lithium ore has shown a certain upward trend [22]. - **Production and Import**: The production and import volume of lithium ore in different periods have changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium ore in September 2025 was 19,950 tons, and the import volume was 71,262 tons [24]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium ore has fluctuated, with shortages in some months and surpluses in others [24]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Import**: The production and import volume of lithium carbonate have changed over time. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in September 2025 was 87,260 tons, and the import volume was 20,000 tons [34]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has also fluctuated, with shortages in some months and surpluses in others [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production, Import, and Export**: The production, import, and export volume of lithium hydroxide have changed over time. The monthly production of lithium hydroxide in September 2025 was 27,470 tons, the export volume was 7,200 tons, and the import volume was 800 tons [39]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has fluctuated, with shortages in some months and surpluses in others [39]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The cost and profit of lithium compounds produced from different raw materials such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and recycled materials have changed. For example, the production of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is currently at a loss [42]. - **Profit of Different Processes**: The profit of different processes such as purification and carbonation of lithium carbonate has also changed [44]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate includes the inventory of smelters, downstream enterprises, and other parties. The total inventory last week was 132,658 tons, a 1.58% week - on - week decrease, but still higher than the historical average [8]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The inventory of lithium hydroxide has also changed over time [37]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Production and Sales**: The production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries have changed over time. The monthly production of power batteries in September 2025 was 76,000 GWh, and the export volume of lithium batteries has also shown different trends in different years [52]. - **Price and Cost**: The price and cost of lithium batteries have changed. For example, the price of some types of batteries has remained stable, while the cost has fluctuated [52]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price, Cost, and Profit**: The price, cost, and profit of ternary precursors have changed over time. The average price of some types of ternary precursors has increased, and the profit has also shown different trends [58]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has fluctuated, with shortages in some months and surpluses in others [61]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Materials - **Price, Cost, and Profit**: The price, cost, and profit of ternary materials have changed over time. The average price of some types of ternary materials has increased, and the profit has also shown different trends [64]. - **Production, Import, and Export**: The production, import, and export volume of ternary materials have changed over time [64][68]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - **Price, Cost, and Profit**: The price, cost, and profit of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed over time. The price of phosphoric acid iron lithium has increased, and the profit has also shown different trends [72]. - **Production, Export, and Inventory**: The production, export volume, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed over time [75]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have increased year - on - year. The production volume in September 2025 was 1,617,000 vehicles, and the sales volume was 1.604 million vehicles [16]. - **Penetration Rate**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased year - on - year [81].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-22甲醇早报 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：近期国内甲醇市场整体弱势下行，除宏观消息面对大宗商品集中压制外，甲醇供需面的持续博弈对行情利 空同步体现；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为2290元/吨，01合约基差22，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：截至2025年10月16日，华东、华南港口甲醇社会库存总量为125.89万吨，较上周期库存小幅降库1.41万吨；沿 海地区（江苏、浙江和华南地区）甲醇整体可流通货源减少6.34万吨至87.70万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在均线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：预计本周甲醇价格震荡为主。MA2601：2230-2330震荡运行。 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Overnight crude oil stabilized and rebounded. The suspension of the meeting between Trump and Putin cast a shadow over the negotiation prospects due to differences in the Ukraine war. The US Energy Department's plan to buy 1 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve signaled low oil prices, and the significant draw in API crude oil inventory stimulated the price rebound. However, the market still faces many macro - shocks such as Sino - US trade negotiations, and short - term oil prices are expected to run at a low level. SC2512 is expected to trade in the range of 435 - 445, and long - term investors are advised to stay on the sidelines [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The Trump - Putin summit was postponed due to the Ukraine issue, and the US Energy Department plans to buy 1 million barrels of crude oil for the SPR. Trump rejected the Democrats' meeting request. Overall, it is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On October 21, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $62.47 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $61.24 per barrel. The basis was 29.53 yuan/barrel, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.981 million barrels in the week ending October 17, while the EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels in the week ending October 10 (expected to increase by 0.288 million barrels). Cushing area inventory decreased by 0.703 million barrels in the week ending October 10. As of October 21, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.211 million barrels, which is bearish [3]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, the long positions in WTI crude oil increased, and as of October 14, the long positions in Brent crude oil decreased, which is bearish [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term oil prices are expected to run at a low level, and SC2512 is expected to trade in the range of 435 - 445, with long - term investors advised to stay on the sidelines [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The Trump - Putin summit was postponed due to Russia's refusal to immediately cease fire in Ukraine, and a White House official said Trump has no plan to meet Putin in the near future [5]. - The EU Trade Commissioner invited China's Commerce Minister to visit Brussels to find an "urgent solution" to China's tightened rare - earth export restrictions. China hopes the EU will urge the Netherlands to solve the Anshi Semiconductor issue, and both sides exchanged views on the EU's anti - subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles [5]. - Reliance Industries, India's largest private refiner, has accelerated crude oil purchases from the Middle East due to uncertain Russian crude oil exports to India, and has bought at least 2.5 million barrels of crude oil from the Gulf region recently [5]. - UBS expects oil prices to stabilize around the current level, but if trade tensions escalate, oil prices may face pressure. UBS believes the oil market is in a supply glut, but not as extreme as the IEA's forecast [5]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish factors**: The threat of the Russia - Ukraine conflict to refineries and oil fields, and the mitigation of Trump's tariff threats [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Easing of the Middle East situation, the risk of a US government shutdown, and OPEC+ considering further production increases [6]. - **Market Drivers**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts are weakening, and there is a medium - to - long - term risk of increased supply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil decreased by $0.03 ( - 0.05%), WTI crude oil decreased by $0.09 ( - 0.16%), SC crude oil increased by 1.70 (0.39%), and Oman crude oil increased by $0.19 (0.31%) [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased by $0.65 (1.07%), WTI decreased by $0.28 ( - 0.49%), Oman crude oil decreased by $1.32 ( - 2.08%), Shengli crude oil decreased by $0.03 ( - 0.05%), and Dubai crude oil increased by $0.29 (0.47%) [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.981 million barrels in the week ending October 17, and EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels in the week ending October 10 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of October 14, the net long position was 109,606, a decrease of 37,794 [19].