Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - Overnight crude oil continued to decline. Trump slowed down threatening actions against Iran, reducing short - term geopolitical concerns. However, the US continued to seize oil tankers from Venezuela, and there were still supply concerns supporting the crude oil market. Short - term oil prices will fluctuate at a low level, and it's necessary to continuously monitor geopolitical developments. SC2603 will operate in the 438 - 448 range, and long - term investors should wait for opportunities to short at high prices [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Trump said the killing in Iran's protest suppression was decreasing, and there were no plans for large - scale executions. The US seized a Venezuela - related oil tanker. Some Fed officials hinted at a rate cut. The overall situation is neutral [3] - **Basis**: On January 15, Oman crude oil spot price was $63.48 per barrel, Qatar Marine crude oil spot price was $62.19 per barrel, with a basis of 21.06 yuan/barrel, and the spot was at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [3] - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory for the week ending January 9 increased by 5.278 million barrels (expected a decrease of 2.238 million barrels). EIA inventory for the week ending January 9 increased by 3.391 million barrels (expected a decrease of 1.702 million barrels). Cushing area inventory for the week ending January 9 increased by 745,000 barrels. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory as of January 15 was 3.464 million barrels, unchanged, which is bearish [3] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average, which is bullish [3] - **Main Position**: As of January 6, WTI and Brent crude oil main positions were long, but the number of long positions decreased, which is bearish [3] - **Expectation**: Short - term oil prices will fluctuate at a low level. SC2603 will operate in the 438 - 448 range, and long - term investors should wait for opportunities to short at high prices [3] 2. Recent News - **Military Action on Iran**: Trump postponed the decision on military action against Iran. The White House is consulting internally and with allies. The US military is withdrawing some troops from Middle - East bases and sending reinforcements. Israel's Netanyahu asked Trump to postpone the action [5] - **US Unemployment Data**: US initial jobless claims unexpectedly decreased to 198,000 in the week ending January 10, the lowest since November last year, indicating no significant increase in layoffs at the beginning of the year [5] - **India's Russian Oil Purchase**: India's purchase of Russian oil may stabilize or decline this month. In December last year, imports dropped to a three - year low, a one - third decline from the June peak. The US imposed a 50% punitive tariff on India and is considering a sanctions bill [5] 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Sanctions on Russia and the tense situation in Iran [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Easing of the Middle - East situation and consistent expectations of crude oil surplus by institutions [6] - **Market Driver**: Short - term focus on geopolitics, long - term risk of oversupply [6] 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: Brent crude oil settlement price dropped from $66.52 to $63.76 (- 4.15%), WTI from $61.88 to $59.17 (- 4.38%), SC from 448.9 to 451.4 (0.56%), and Oman from $62.21 to $62.85 (1.03%) [7] - **Spot Market**: UK Brent Dtd dropped from $68.90 to $66.63 (- 3.29%), WTI from $62.02 to $59.19 (- 4.56%), Oman from $63.08 to $63.48 (0.63%), Shengli from $60.71 to $60.15 (- 0.92%), and Dubai from $62.56 to $62.61 (0.08%) [9] - **API Inventory**: As of January 9, API inventory was 449.357 million barrels, an increase of 5.278 million barrels compared to the previous week [10] - **EIA Inventory**: Data shows the change in EIA inventory from October 31 to January 2 [13] 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of January 6, the net long position was 57,352, a decrease of 7,239 compared to the previous period [16] - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of January 6, the net long position was 122,965, a decrease of 3,219 compared to the previous period [19]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of copper is disturbed, smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. The December manufacturing PMI rose 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%, entering the expansion range, indicating a bullish trend [3]. - The spot price of copper is 104,240, with a basis of 120, showing a premium over futures, indicating a neutral situation [3]. - On January 14, copper inventories increased by 75 to 141,625 tons, and SHFE copper inventories increased by 35,201 tons to 180,543 tons last week, indicating a neutral situation [3]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, showing a bullish trend [3]. - The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing, showing a bullish trend [3]. - Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia has fermented. Copper prices have reached a new high and fluctuated significantly at high levels. Attention should be paid to position control [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Copper's fundamentals are bullish due to supply - side disturbances and improved PMI; the basis is neutral; inventory is neutral; the price trend on the chart is bullish; the main position is bullish; and there are risks of high - level fluctuations [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, Fed rate cuts, slow mine - end production increase, and production cuts at Freeport's Indonesian mine [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Unexpectedly high US tariffs and weak global economy suppressing downstream consumption [5]. - **Logic**: Global policy easing and tight mining supply [4]. - **Risk**: Natural disasters [4] Spot and Inventory - Shanghai copper spot and inventory data are presented, and the bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [7][14]. Price Difference between Futures and Spot - No detailed information available [8] Exchange Inventory - No detailed analysis available [12] Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16] CFTC - No detailed information available [18] Supply - demand Balance - In 2024, there is a small surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance situation. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [20][22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **PTA**: The short - term PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side, and the spot basis will run weakly. The supply - demand pattern remains stable for now, but the willingness of traders to hold goods has decreased, and the spot basis has further declined [5]. - **MEG**: The price center of ethylene glycol has moderately increased recently due to the strong crude oil and geopolitical concerns. However, the medium - term fundamentals are weak, and there is heavy pressure on the price upside [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review No specific content provided in the report. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: - Fundamentals: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed lower yesterday, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis was weak. - Basis: The spot price was 5072, and the 05 - contract basis was - 44, with the futures price higher than the spot price. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory was 3.6 days, a decrease of 0.01 days compared to the previous period. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. - Main positions: Net short positions increased. [5] - **MEG**: - Fundamentals: On Wednesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated and was firm, and the market negotiation was acceptable. The night - session opened low and moved up, and the spot basis strengthened slightly. - Basis: The spot price was 3718, and the 05 - contract basis was - 149, with the futures price higher than the spot price. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China was 66.9 tons, an increase of 0.55 tons compared to the previous period. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. - Main positions: Net short positions decreased. [7][8] 3.3. Today's Focus - **Influencing Factors Summary**: - Positive factors: None mentioned. - Negative factors: A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Inner Mongolia restarted and produced products, and the load is increasing [10]. - **Current Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored when the market rebounds [11]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Details of PTA supply and demand from January 2024 to December 2025 are provided, including production capacity, output, import, export, and inventory changes [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Details of ethylene glycol supply and demand from January 2024 to December 2025 are provided, including production, import, consumption, and inventory changes [14]. - **Price and Profit Data**: Data on the prices and profits of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products on January 14 and 13, 2026 are provided [15]. - **Graphical Data**: Multiple graphs show historical data on prices, basis, spreads, inventory, and operating rates of PTA, MEG, PET bottle chips, and polyester products from 2022 to 2026 [16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65][66][67][68]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall domestic methanol market is expected to be weak in the later period, with clear regional divergence. Inland methanol may decline due to high开工 rates, low downstream demand in winter, and high downstream inventory. The port methanol market is expected to be weakly sorted this week, with support at the bottom but potential for a decline in the fluctuation range if downstream parking or load reduction occurs. It is expected that the methanol price will be mainly in a strong - oscillating state this week, with MA2605 operating between 2210 - 2320 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The later domestic methanol market is weak, with differences between inland and port areas. Inland methanol may fall, and the port market is expected to be weakly sorted. The expected price range of MA2605 this week is 2210 - 2320 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely to be bullish**: Some device shutdowns (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinyet), reduced methanol production in Iran, low port inventory, new production of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen and a planned production of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong, and methanol procurement by northwest CTO factories [6]. - **Likely to be bearish**: Resumption of previously shut - down devices (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua), concentrated ship arrivals at the port in the second half of the month, formaldehyde entering the traditional off - season, a significant decline in MTBE operating rate, coal - to - methanol having a certain profit margin and active sales, and inventory accumulation in some factories in the production area [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: The spot price of methanol in different regions has changed. For example, the price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.09% to 2240 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 2273 yuan/ton. The basis was - 33 yuan/ton, showing a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [8]. - **Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 1.0445 million tons, a significant decrease of 114,800 tons from the previous period. The total available methanol in the coastal areas decreased by 6.17 tons to 558,200 tons [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The national weighted average operating rate was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest all decreased [8]. - **Profit**: The profits of different methanol production processes varied. For example, the profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia and the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol in the Southwest showed different trends [19]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are under maintenance, with different maintenance times and losses. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's 100,000 - ton/year coke - oven - gas - based device has been under maintenance since November 2024, with a weekly maintenance loss of 1,950 tons [56]. - **Overseas Devices**: Some overseas methanol production devices are in different operating states, such as some Iranian devices being in the process of restarting and recovery, and some devices in other countries operating normally or being under maintenance [57]. - **Olefin Devices**: Some domestic olefin devices are under maintenance or have production plans. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices stopped for maintenance on March 15, 2026, for an expected 45 days [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon market is affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, cost, and inventory. The supply of industrial silicon decreased last week, while demand increased. The cost support has risen during the dry - season, and the market is expected to fluctuate between 8610 - 8850 for the industrial silicon 2605 contract [6]. - The polysilicon market shows a situation where supply scheduling is continuously decreasing, and demand shows some recovery but may be weak in the future. The cost support remains stable, and the polysilicon 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 47355 - 49985 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 850,000 tons, a 2.29% decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: The demand was 800,000 tons, a 9.59% increase from the previous week. The silicon wafer and battery cell production are in a loss - making state, while the component production is profitable. The silicone inventory is at a low level with a production profit of 2,100 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive operating rate is 64.23%, flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9,794.9 yuan/ton, flat compared to the previous week. The cost support has increased during the dry - season [6]. - **Basis**: On January 15th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 470 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 552,000 tons, a 0.89% decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 207,500 tons, an increase of 2.07%. The main port inventory was 137,000 tons, a 2.14% decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increased [6]. - **Expectation**: The industrial silicon 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8610 - 8850 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: The polysilicon production last week was 23,800 tons, a 0.83% decrease from the previous week. The scheduled production in January is expected to be 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: The silicon wafer production last week was 10.52GW, a 3.33% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 262,300 tons, a 13.10% increase. The silicon wafer production is in a loss - making state. The battery cell production is also in a loss - making state, and the component production is profitable. The scheduled production of battery cells in January is 39.36GW, a 15.82% decrease from the previous month, and the expected component production in January is 32.47GW, a 16.09% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Cost**: The average industry cost of polysilicon N - type material is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,650 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On January 15th, the price of N - type dense material was 54,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 6,080 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 321,000 tons, a 6.29% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: The polysilicon 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 47355 - 49985 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon The report provides detailed price, inventory, production, and other data of industrial silicon contracts, including prices of different specifications of industrial silicon in East China, futures closing prices of each contract, inventory data of different regions, and production and operating rate data of sample enterprises [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon The report presents price, production, inventory, and other data of polysilicon, including prices of different types of polysilicon, futures closing prices of each contract, silicon wafer production and inventory data, battery cell production and inventory data, and component production, inventory, and export data [17]. 3.3 Price and Cost Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The report shows the price - basis and delivery product price difference trends of industrial silicon, as well as the cost trends of sample regions, including the cost differences between 421 and 553 in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [19][36]. - **Polysilicon**: It presents the disk price trend and the cost trend of the polysilicon industry [22][66]. 3.4 Inventory, Production, and Capacity Utilization - **Industrial Silicon**: It shows the inventory situation of industrial silicon, including the inventory of delivery warehouses and ports, SMM sample enterprise inventory, and registered warehouse receipt volume. It also presents the production and capacity utilization trends, including the weekly production trend of SMM sample enterprises, the monthly production by specification, and the operating rate trend [25][28]. - **Polysilicon**: It shows the inventory, production, and operating rate trends of polysilicon, including the total inventory of SMM polysilicon, monthly production, monthly operating rate, and monthly demand [66]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - **Industrial Silicon**: It provides the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon, including production, import, export, consumption, and balance data [40][43]. - **Polysilicon**: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon, including supply, import, export, consumption, and balance data [68]. 3.6 Downstream Market 3.6.1 Organic Silicon - **DMC**: It shows the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC, including the daily capacity utilization rate, profit - cost trend, weekly production trend, and price trend [46][52]. - **Downstream Products**: It presents the price trends of downstream products of organic silicon, such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 [48]. 3.6.2 Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Supply**: It shows the price and supply situation of aluminum alloy, including the waste aluminum recycling volume, waste aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, and the price trend of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 [55]. - **Inventory and Production**: It presents the inventory and production trends of aluminum alloy, including the monthly production of primary aluminum - based and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly operating rate of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots [58]. - **Demand**: It shows the demand situation of aluminum alloy in the automotive and wheel hub industries, including the monthly production and sales of automobiles and the export trend of aluminum alloy wheel hubs [60]. 3.6.3 Polysilicon - **Silicon Wafer**: It shows the price, production, inventory, and supply - demand balance trends of silicon wafers, including the price trend of different types of silicon wafers, weekly production, weekly inventory, monthly demand, and net export trends [71][74]. - **Battery Cell**: It presents the price, production, inventory, and export trends of battery cells, including the price trend of single - crystal P/N type battery cells, battery cell production scheduling and actual production, photovoltaic battery export factory weekly inventory, operating rate, and export volume [77]. - **Photovoltaic Component**: It shows the price, production, inventory, and export trends of photovoltaic components, including the price trend of different types of components, domestic and European inventory, monthly production, and export volume [80]. - **Photovoltaic Accessories**: It presents the price, production, import - export trends of photovoltaic accessories, including the price trend of photovoltaic coatings, import - export volume of photovoltaic adhesive films, monthly production and export volume of photovoltaic glass, price trend of high - purity quartz sand, and import - export volume of welding strips [83]. - **Component Cost - Profit**: It shows the cost - profit trends of components, including the silicon material cost, silicon wafer cost - profit, battery cell cost - profit, and component cost - profit trends of 210mm double - sided double - glass components [86]. - **Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation**: It presents the trends of photovoltaic grid - connected power generation, including the national new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition and total volume, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar monthly power generation [88].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Supply - Last week, lithium carbonate production was 22,535 tons, a 0.51% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In December 2025, production was 99,200 physical tons, and the predicted output for next month is 97,970 tons, a 1.23% decrease. The import volume in December 2025 was 26,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,500 tons, a 13.46% decrease [8][9]. - Demand - Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 96,094 tons, a 3.80% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,432 tons, a 0.80% week - on - week decrease. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventories may decline [8][9]. - Cost - The CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased on a daily basis, lower than the historical average. The cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate was 152,997 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a production profit of 6,514 yuan/ton. The cost of externally purchased lepidolite was 148,815 yuan/ton, a 0.84% daily decrease, with a production profit of 4,536 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is generally higher than that at the ore end, and the production profit is negative, resulting in low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9][10]. - Market Outlook - The supply - demand pattern is shifting towards supply - led. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 157,560 - 166,240 yuan/ton. The main logic is the emotional fluctuations caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [9][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - Supply - Last week's production increase, and predicted decreases in next month's production and import. The cost of 6% concentrate decreased [8][9]. - Demand - Decreases in the inventory of lithium iron phosphate and ternary material sample enterprises last week, and expected strengthening of next month's demand [8][9]. - Cost - Different production costs and profits for various raw material sources, with the salt lake end having obvious advantages [10]. - Market - The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and the main logic is related to supply - demand balance and news sentiment [9][13]. - Factors - Positive factors include the production cut plan of lepidolite manufacturers and the decrease in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline [11][12]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Lithium Carbonate Market Overview** - Price - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 2.45% to 159,000 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 2.51% to 155,500 yuan/ton. The prices of other related products also showed different degrees of change [16]. - Supply - The weekly operating rate increased, and the monthly output of some products decreased. For example, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 2.17% to 403,900 tons [18]. - Demand - The inventory of downstream enterprises decreased, such as the 3.80% decrease in the weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises to 96,094 tons [18]. - **Supply - Lithium Ore** - Price - The price of 6% lithium ore CIF decreased. The price of spodumene (6%) was 2,060 US dollars/ton, a 1.90% decrease [16]. - Production - The production of domestic lithium mines showed different trends in different periods. For example, the production of lithium mica increased by 3.95% to 10,010 tons in a certain month [18]. - Import - The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate increased by 27.59% to 677,528 tons, with a significant increase in imports from Australia [18]. - **Supply - Lithium Carbonate** - Operating Rate - The weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate from different sources showed different trends. For example, the weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate production from lithium ore was 87.14%, a 4.33% increase [18]. - Production - The monthly production of lithium carbonate increased in some months. In December 2025, the production was 99,200 tons, a 4.04% increase [18]. - Import - The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased in some cases. The import volume from Chile decreased by 26.84% to 10,824.66 tons [18]. - **Supply - Lithium Hydroxide** - Capacity Utilization - The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide showed different trends in different years [39]. - Production - The monthly production of lithium hydroxide was 30,450 tons in a certain month, and the export volume also changed over time [40][44]. - **Lithium Compound Cost - Profit** - Different raw materials have different cost - profit situations. For example, the production profit of externally purchased spodumene concentrate and lepidolite was positive, while the recycling end generally had a negative profit [10][47]. - **Inventory** - Lithium carbonate inventory - The total inventory decreased by 0.23% to 109,679 tons, with different trends in the inventory of smelters, downstream enterprises, and others [10]. - Lithium hydroxide inventory - The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources also showed different trends [54]. - **Demand - Lithium Battery** - Price - The price of some batteries showed different trends. For example, the price of 523 square batteries changed over time [58]. - Production - The monthly production of battery cells, such as power ternary and power lithium iron phosphate, showed different trends [58]. - Sales - The monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles and the export volume of lithium batteries also changed [58][80]. - **Demand - Ternary Precursor** - Price - The price of ternary precursors showed different trends. For example, the price of 5 - series (single - crystal/power type) average was 119,250 yuan/ton, a 1.45% increase [16]. - Production - The monthly production of ternary precursors was 85,120 tons in a certain month, and the supply - demand balance also changed [63][66]. - **Demand - Ternary Material** - Price - The price of ternary materials showed different trends. For example, the price of 5 - series (single - crystal/power type) average was 205,000 yuan/ton [68]. - Production - The weekly operating rate of ternary materials and the production volume also changed [68]. - **Demand - Lithium Iron Phosphate/Phosphate** - Price - The price of lithium iron phosphate and phosphate showed different trends. For example, the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate changed over time [72]. - Production - The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and phosphate showed different trends [75]. - **Demand - New Energy Vehicle** - Production - The production of new energy vehicles, including plug - in hybrids and pure - electric vehicles, showed different trends [80]. - Sales - The sales volume and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles also changed [80][81].

聚烯烃早报 2026-1-16 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，12月份，官方12月制造业PMI为50.1%，较上月上升0.9个百分点，时隔 8个月重回扩张区间。OPEC+1月4日发表声明， 8个主要产油国决定，维持2025年11月初制定的产 量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂停增产。近日伊朗政局动荡，引发市场对伊朗原油供应中断的 担忧，推动国际油价反弹。供需端，农膜方面，棚膜需求回落，地膜需求抬头，包装膜企业订单 及开工有所提升。当前LL交割品现货价6930（+80），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差145，升贴水比例2.1%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存38万吨（-4.5），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向上 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2026年1月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货15650，基差-345 偏空 中性 现货价格 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净多，多减 偏多 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，逢低做多 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 3、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market has mixed factors. Positive factors include the expected reduction of over 10% in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, a positive basis, a favorable technical chart, and a bullish position of the main players. Negative factors include the expected high ending inventory by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture for the 2025/26 season. After a rapid rise, the cotton 05 contract is currently in a period of shock adjustment, with a short - term expected range of 14,500 - 15,000 [4]. - There are also some other influencing factors. Bullish factors include the pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises and a reduction in export tariffs to the US. Bearish factors include a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In the USDA December report for the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is 2608.1 million tons, consumption is 2582.3 million tons, and ending inventory is 1654.1 million tons. In November, China's textile and clothing exports were $23.869 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12%. China imported 120,000 tons of cotton in November, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%, and 150,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 25%. According to the December 2025/26 report of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture, China's cotton production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,972 yuan, with a basis of 1,297 yuan (for the 05 contract), indicating a premium over futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture expects an ending inventory of 8.35 million tons for the 2025/26 season in December, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Technical Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Player's Position**: The net long position is increasing, and the main trend is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: After a rapid rise, the cotton 05 contract is in a shock adjustment period, with a short - term expected range of 14,500 - 15,000 [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No specific content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Forecast**: In the 2025/26 season, production in China is expected to be 751.2 million tons, India 511.7 million tons, Vietnam 408.2 million tons, etc. Consumption, imports, and ending inventory data for different countries are also provided. For example, China's consumption is expected to be 849.1 million tons, imports 117.6 million tons, and ending inventory 776.5 million tons [10][11]. - **ICAC Forecast**: In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton area is 3041.385 million hectares, with a yield of 835.13 million tons, consumption of 971.442 million tons, and ending inventory of 1622.785 million tons [13]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In the 2025/26 season, production is 727.8 million tons, imports are 110 million tons, consumption is 810 million tons, and ending inventory is 1011.6 million tons [15]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For gold, Trump denied dismissing Powell and the Trump administration decided not to impose comprehensive tariffs on key minerals, causing metal prices to stop rising and gold prices to fluctuate at a high level. Geopolitical tensions and a cooling risk appetite also contributed to the price volatility. The upward momentum of gold prices exists but is limited due to factors like recent Fed rate - cut expectations and optimistic expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [4]. - For silver, the Trump administration's decision on tariffs led to silver prices stopping their rise and experiencing significant high - level fluctuations. The downward pressure on silver prices increased as domestic sentiment cooled rapidly, and there were geopolitical concerns along with a cooling risk appetite [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: COMEX gold futures fell 0.33% to $4,620.50 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 4.53 basis points to 4.171%, the US dollar index rose 0.28% to 99.35, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 6.9631. The gold futures basis was - 2.98, indicating the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. Gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 100,152 kilograms [4]. - Silver: COMEX silver futures rose 0.90% to $92.21 per ounce. The silver futures basis was - 15, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 9,703 kilograms to 638,399 kilograms [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Today, pay attention to the intensive speeches of Fed members, the US January NAHB housing market index, the opening of the 2026 Nuclear Fusion Energy Technology and Industry Conference, Germany's December CPI final value, European Central Bank Governing Council member Escriva's speech, the US December industrial production, the welcome speech by Boston Fed President Collins at the 2026 New England Economic Forum, Fed Governor Bowman's talk on economic prospects and monetary policy, and the keynote speech by Fed Vice - Chair Philip Jefferson at the US Economic Research Institute meeting [4][14]. 3.3. Fundamental Data - Gold: The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation since Trump took office, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. Recent Fed rate - cut expectations and optimistic Russia - Ukraine peace - talk expectations, along with liquidity concerns, have a limited upward impact on gold prices. There are also factors such as global turmoil, South American geopolitical tensions, and inflation concerns that are positive for gold prices, while factors like potential Trump new policies, improved US economic expectations, significant Bank of Japan interest rate hikes, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are negative [9]. - Silver: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. Tariff concerns have a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase. Positive factors include global turmoil, South American geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, tariff support for non - ferrous metals, support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors, and low spot inventory. Negative factors include significant Fed internal differences, less - than - expected European fiscal expansion, optimistic Russia - Ukraine peace - talk expectations, and Bloomberg commodity index adjustments [12][13]. 3.4. Position Data - Gold: The net long position of the main players increased. The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold decreased by 1.83% to 186,651 on January 15 compared to January 14, the short positions decreased by 2.04% to 47,740, and the net position decreased by 1.76% to 138,911. The SPDR gold ETF position increased slightly, COMEX gold warehouse receipts decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly [30][34][38]. - Silver: The net long position of the main players decreased. The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver increased by 1.46% to 369,580 on January 15 compared to January 14, the short positions increased by 3.30% to 305,332, and the net position decreased by 6.43% to 64,248. The silver ETF position decreased slightly, Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease [32][36][40].