交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-9-11） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤 利 多：1.铁水产量上涨 2.供应难有增量 焦煤： 1、基本面：产地煤矿正常生产，部分偶发事故煤矿有所停产。焦炭落实第一轮降价后下游焦企利润压 缩，对原料煤多按需采购，贸易环节观望居多，煤矿销售一般，考虑终端需求欠佳，市场看降情绪仍存， 部分煤种价格有继续回落预期；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1130，基差13；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 6、预期：下游部分焦企产能利用率相对持稳，但多数焦钢企业补库接近尾声，市场需求渐弱，叠加近 期钢材价格偏弱，市场情绪趋于谨慎，焦 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc oscillate and rebound, closing with a positive line, accompanied by shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with the short - side reduction being more significant. Overall, it was a volume - shrinking rebound. As prices rebounded, long - position holders were eager to exit, while short - position holders were even more eager. In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate and consolidate. Technically, the price closed below the long - term moving average, with weak moving average support. The short - term KDJ indicator rose and was operating around the strength - weakness demarcation point. The trend indicator declined, with both long and short forces weakening, and the two sides starting to stalemate. The operation suggestion is that Shanghai Zinc ZN2510 will oscillate and consolidate [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, global zinc plate production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The basis is 22,140 for spot and - 75, which is neutral [2]. - On September 10, LME zinc inventory decreased by 200 tons to 50,825 tons compared to the previous day, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,648 tons to 44,329 tons compared to the previous day, which is neutral [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed an oscillating and rebounding trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is a bearish factor [2]. - The main net position is long, but the long - position decreased, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.2 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Market on September 10 - The trading volume of zinc futures on September 10 was 130,767 lots, with a turnover of 1.44976756 billion yuan. The open interest was 221,749 lots, a decrease of 3,963 lots compared to the previous day [3]. 3.3 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on September 10 - The price of zinc concentrate in Chenzhou was 16,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot was 22,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheet was 4,041 yuan/unit, a decrease of 2 yuan/unit; the price of galvanized pipe was 4,451 yuan/unit, a decrease of 2 yuan/unit; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,600 yuan/unit, unchanged; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Linzhou was 7,857 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 3.4 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (August 28 - September 8, 2025) - On September 8, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in China's main markets was 1.399 million tons, an increase of 0.065 million tons compared to September 1 and an increase of 0.014 million tons compared to September 4 [5]. 3.5 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on September 10 - The total zinc warrants on September 10 were 44,329 tons, an increase of 1,648 tons compared to the previous day. Among them, the warrants in Guangdong increased by 1,322 tons, and those in Tianjin increased by 326 tons [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on September 10 - On September 10, LME zinc inventory decreased by 200 tons to 50,825 tons compared to the previous day. The registered warrants were 35,450 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 15,375 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 30.25% [7]. 3.7 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on September 8 - The price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in various regions increased by 80 yuan/ton on September 8 [8]. 3.8 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on September 8 - The price of 0 zinc ingots from various smelters increased by 120 yuan/ton on September 8 [12]. 3.9 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production exceeded the plan by 2.63%, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production for July was 470,300 tons [14]. 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on September 8 - The processing fees for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions ranged from 3,400 to 4,200 yuan/metal ton, and the processing fee for imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 80 - 100 US dollars/dry ton [16]. 3.11 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on September 10 - For the contract code zn2510, the total trading volume of members was 133,687 lots, a decrease of 27,362 lots compared to the previous day. The total long - position was 68,560 lots, a decrease of 3,754 lots compared to the previous day, and the total short - position was 68,354 lots, a decrease of 4,735 lots compared to the previous day [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] Core Viewpoint - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is relatively strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and short - long trading is recommended [4] Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The fundamental situation of natural rubber is that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rate is high, with a neutral outlook. The basis is - 930 with the spot price at 15050, showing a bearish signal. Exchange inventories and Qingdao area inventories have recent small changes. The import volume is rising. Automobile production and sales are seasonally falling, tire production is at a record high for the same period but falling month - on - month, and tire industry exports are rising. The basis weakened on September 10th [4][14][17][20][23][26][29][32][35] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) fell on September 10th. The US dollar - quoted price in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also involved [8][11] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories and Qingdao area inventories have recent small changes. The exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year [4][14][17] - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales are seasonally falling, tire production is at a record high for the same period but falling month - on - month, and tire industry exports are rising [23][26][29][32] Basis - The basis on September 10th was - 930 with the spot price at 15050, and it weakened on September 10th [4][35] Multi - Empty Factors - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply and bearish domestic economic indicators [6]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年9月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC9月报：25/26年度产量2550万吨，消费2550万吨。USDA8月报：25/26年度产 量2539.2万吨，消费2568.8万吨，期末库存1609.3万吨。海关：8月纺织品服装出口265.4亿 美元，同比下降5%。7月份我国棉花进口5万吨，同比减少73.2%；棉纱进口11万吨，同比增加 15.38%。农村部8月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存823万 吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15286，基差1431（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-9-11 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量下滑，终端 需求走弱，纯碱厂库处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1190元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1281元/吨，基差为-91元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存182.21万吨，较前一周减少2.43%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、年内检修高峰期来临，产量预计将有所下滑。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton global sugar supply gap in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern 25/26 sugar production at 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous estimate. As of July 2025, China's 24/25 sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, sales were 9.5498 million tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons, and 159,800 tons of syrup and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons, with a neutral overall situation [5]. - The basis of Liuzhou spot sugar is 435 (01 contract), showing a premium over the futures, which is bullish [5]. - As of the end of July in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.61 million tons, which is bullish [7]. - The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it, which is bearish. The main position is bearish, with a reduction in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear, also bearish [7]. - The international raw sugar re - reached 16 cents in the night session. The domestic futures main contract 01 has support near the 5500 mark, and there may be a technical rebound after consecutive declines [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the content. 2. Daily Hints - Fundamental factors: The global sugar supply and demand situation is complex. Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season, with some predicting a supply surplus and others a small gap. China's domestic sugar consumption is good, and the inventory has decreased. The tariff on imported syrup has increased since January 2025 [5][8][10]. - Market indicators: The basis shows a premium, the inventory situation is favorable, but the technical indicators and main positions are bearish. The international raw sugar price has rebounded, and the domestic futures may have a technical rebound [5][6][7]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the content. 4. Fundamental Data - Global supply and demand: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton gap, while Czarnikow predicts a 470,000 - ton surplus, StoneX predicts a 121,000 - ton surplus, etc. [5][10][36]. - China's supply and demand: In 2025, China's sugar production, sales, imports, and consumption data are as follows: As of July, the 24/25 season's cumulative sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 9.5498 million tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July, 740,000 tons of sugar were imported, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons, and 159,800 tons of syrup and premixes were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons. The 25/26 China's sugar supply and demand balance table shows that production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and imports are 5 million tons [5][10][38]. 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, with a reduction in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear [7].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年9月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货小幅上涨，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差偏稳，少量聚酯工厂递盘。9月在01贴水60~65附近成交， 个别略低，价格商谈区间在4600~4640附近。10月货在01贴水45有成交。今日主流现货基差在01-63。中性 2、基差：现货4625，01合约基差-73，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.9天，环比增加0.09天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏多 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：近期PTA检修重启并行，现货市场流通性尚可，现货基差走弱且区域基差有 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-11原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2510： 1.基本面：欧盟消息人士称，欧盟不太可能应特朗普要求对俄罗斯石油的主要买家印度或中国征收高 额关税；美国劳工统计局（BLS）发布的最新生产者价格指数（PPI）报告显示，8月PPI意外下降0.1%， 低于华尔街经济学家预期的0.3%增幅，这一数据不仅标志着今年第三次PPI出现通缩，也为即将到来的 消费者价格指数（CPI）报告和美联储9月利率决定增添了新的背景；中性 2.基差：9月10日，阿曼原油现货价为70.73元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为69.95元/桶，基差37.67元/ 桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The concern about the geopolitical situation in the Middle East due to Israel's attack on Hamas in Qatar supports oil prices. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend of overnight crude oil driven by geopolitical factors. With the shipping industry approaching the Christmas stocking season, the increasing shipping demand will partially boost the fuel oil price. The FU2510 is expected to trade in the range of 2780 - 2830, and the LU2511 in the range of 3340 - 3390 [3]. - The supply - side is affected by geopolitical risks, while the demand is neutral. The potential tightening of sanctions against Russia is a positive factor, while the optimism on the demand side needs verification and the relatively weak upstream crude oil prices are negative factors [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamental outlook is neutral as geopolitical concerns support oil prices. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is positive. The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 142 million barrels to 2330.9 million barrels in the week of September 3, which is negative. The price is near the 20 - day line which is flat, showing a neutral signal. The high - sulfur main position is short and the short positions are decreasing, negative; the low - sulfur main position is long and the long positions are decreasing, positive [3]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Positive factors include the potential tightening of sanctions against Russia. Negative factors are that the optimism on the demand side needs verification and the upstream crude oil prices are weak. The market is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The FU main contract futures price rose from 2756 to 2789, an increase of 33 or 1.20%. The LU main contract futures price rose from 3367 to 3392, an increase of 25 or 0.74%. The FU basis increased from 91 to 127, an increase of 35 or 38.59%. The LU basis increased from 80 to 82, an increase of 2 or 2.90% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 4.00 to 478.00, a decrease of 0.83%. The price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 2.00 to 498.00, a decrease of 0.40%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 7.72 to 396.89, an increase of 1.98%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil remained unchanged at 474.50. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 7.72 to 374.56, an increase of 2.10%. The price of Singapore diesel increased by 4.93 to 644.38, an increase of 0.77% [6]. 3.4 Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 142 million barrels to 2330.9 million barrels in the week of September 3. From June 25 to September 3, the inventory showed fluctuations, with decreases in some weeks and increases in others [3][8]. 3.5 Spread Data - The report presents the high - and low - sulfur futures spread, but specific numerical analysis of the spread is not provided [12].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-11 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡回落。前期市场受尿素出口放开传言影响期货价格上涨，后市 场情绪回落。当前日产及开工率仍处于偏高位置，库存整体高位。需求端，工业需求中复合肥、 三聚氰胺开工略有反弹，农业需求短期见顶。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显，出口利润仍较强， 出口政策未显著放开。交割品现货1760（-0），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差91，升贴水比例5.2%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存141万吨（+0.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，减多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素 ...