1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples decreased, and refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week. The demand side is generally lower than the historical average level. The cost side indicates that the profit from asphalt processing is in deficit, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken. Overall, the asphalt market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 fluctuating between 3017 - 3069 [8]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: In November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries was 1.312 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 26.4262%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 245,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.28%, and the sample enterprise output was 441,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.20%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 958,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.59%. The refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week. The demand side shows that the heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 24.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 was 6%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 was 10.587%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 34%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 34%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point, lower than the historical average. The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit was - 453.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1086.84 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.76%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Basis**: On November 26, the spot price in Shandong was 3020 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 23 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 794,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%; the in - plant inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 800,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.57%. The social and in - plant inventories continued to decline, while the port inventory continued to increase [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increased [8]. - **Expectation**: The refineries have recently reduced production to ease supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, and the overall demand is lower than expected. The inventory remains stable, and the crude oil is weak. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 fluctuating between 3017 - 3069 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [17][19]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 - 2025 [25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025 [28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Market Price Trends in Different Regions**: The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [35]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical profit spread trend between coking and asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [41]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report presents the historical port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2021 - 2025 [47]. - **Output**: The report shows the historical weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [50]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The report presents the historical price trend of Maya crude oil and the monthly output trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025 [54]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: The report shows the historical output trend of local refinery asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report presents the historical weekly capacity utilization rate trend of asphalt from 2021 - 2025 [60]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The report shows the historical maintenance loss estimation trend of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [63]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report presents the historical trends of total, social, and in - plant exchange warehouse receipts of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [66]. - **Social and In - Plant Inventories**: The report shows the historical trends of social and in - plant inventories of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [70]. - **In - Plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The report presents the historical in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio trend of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [73]. - **Import and Export Situation**: The report shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, as well as the historical import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [76][79]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The report presents the historical output trend of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025 [82]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption trend of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [85]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: The report presents the historical trends of highway construction transportation fixed - asset investment and new local special bonds from 2019 - 2025, as well as the year - on - year change trend of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 - 2024 [88]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [92]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report presents the historical capacity utilization rate trend of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [97]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: The report shows the historical capacity utilization rate trends of construction asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [100]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation**: The report presents the historical capacity utilization rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, etc. from 2019 - 2025 [101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to November 2025, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and output [106].

Report Overview - The report is a polyolefin morning report dated November 27, 2025, focusing on LLDPE and PP [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be volatile today due to oversupply, weak downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventories [4][6] Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. After the China-US leaders' meeting, the US lifted some restrictions on Chinese goods, and OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from supply shortage to oversupply, leading to a drop in oil prices. The demand for agricultural films has declined, and other film types are mainly driven by rigid demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6810 (-30), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 103, with a premium ratio of 1.5%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 55.4 tons (-2.5), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today [4] - **Factors**: Bullish factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the China-US talks reaching a phased easing. Bearish factors include weak year-on-year demand and significant new production capacity in the fourth quarter. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the manufacturing sentiment declined in October. After the China-US leaders' meeting, relevant policies were adjusted, and OPEC+ led to a drop in oil prices. The demand for plastic weaving is average, while the demand for pipes has increased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6350 (-30), with overall bearish fundamentals [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 85, with a premium ratio of 1.4%, which is bullish [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 59.4 tons (-2.6), which is bearish [6] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today [6] - **Factors**: Bullish factors are the same as those for LLDPE. Bearish factors also include weak year-on-year demand and significant new production capacity in the fourth quarter. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro policies [7] Spot and Futures Market - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 6810 (-30), the price of the 01 contract is 6707 (-55), and the basis is 103. The import price in US dollars is 775 (unchanged), and the import price converted to the domestic market is 6758 (unchanged) [8] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 6350 (-30), the price of the 01 contract is 6265 (-52), and the basis is 85. The import price in US dollars is 760 (unchanged), and the import price converted to the domestic market is 6630 (unchanged) [8] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an increasing trend, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased, and the import dependence decreased. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral [4][9] Core Viewpoint - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to decrease, and tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is high [4][6] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full latex (non - deliverable) decreased on November 26th, and the spot price is resistant to decline [8][6] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year. There is seasonal cancellation of exchange inventory warrants [4][14] - **Import**: The import volume has declined [20] - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production is at a record high for the same period, but tire industry exports are declining [23][29][32] Basis - The spot price is 14,650, and the basis is - 545, showing a bearish signal. The basis weakened on November 26th [4][35] Long - Short Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to mainly move in a volatile and downward trend in the short term. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1,175 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous value; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,140 yuan/ton, with no change; the main basis was - 35 yuan/ton, up 6.06% [6] 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12] 3. Fundamentals - Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process was - 118.50 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process was - 221.5 yuan/ton, at a historical low [16] - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 84.80%. The weekly production was 72.09 tons, including 39.62 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [19][21] - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [22] 4. Fundamentals - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 100.93% [25] - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 158,100 tons, with an operating rate of 74.85% [28] 5. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash in factories nationwide was 1.6444 million tons, a decrease of 3.68% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five - year average [35] 6. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheets from 2017 to 2024E are provided, showing changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [36] Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3] - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high in the same period. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of Shanghai Zinc may be weak in the short term, but the Shanghai Zinc ZN2601 is expected to oscillate and rebound. The price is near the long - term moving average with strong support. The short - term indicator KDJ is rising and operating in the weak area, and the trend indicator shows that the long - position strength is rising while the short - position strength is falling, with the long - and short - position forces starting to stalemate [2][19] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, with a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons, which is bullish [2] - The basis is +145 with the spot price at 22,500, which is bullish [2] - On November 26, LME zinc inventory increased by 1,925 tons to 49,925 tons compared with the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrant decreased by 2,199 tons to 71,620 tons, which is neutral [2] - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed an oscillating trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is bearish [2] - The main net position is short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [2] 2. Market Data 2.1 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on November 26 - The trading volume of zinc futures on November 26 was 151,297 lots, and the trading value was 1.69183407 billion yuan. The open interest was 190,070 lots, a decrease of 821 lots [3] 2.2 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on November 26 - The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 2,300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC was 80 US dollars/dry ton, both unchanged [4] - The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 22,450 - 22,550 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 22,240 - 22,340 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 22,345 - 22,445 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,395 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 22,505 - 22,605 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,555 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [4] 2.3 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (November 13 - 24, 2025) - As of November 24, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in China's main markets was 1.517 million tons, a decrease of 10,700 tons compared with November 17 and a decrease of 8,200 tons compared with November 20 [5] 2.4 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on November 26 - The total SHFE zinc warrant on November 26 was 71,620 tons, a decrease of 2,199 tons [6] 2.5 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on November 26 - The LME zinc inventory on November 26 was 49,925 tons, an increase of 1,925 tons [7] 2.6 Zinc Concentrate Price Summary in National Main Cities on November 26 - The price of 50% zinc concentrate in various regions increased by 20 yuan/ton [9] 2.7 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes in the National Market on November 26 - The price of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters ranged from 22,100 to 23,100 yuan/ton [12] 2.8 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - The planned production value in October was 509,600 tons, the actual production was 524,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87%, a year - on - year increase of 18.38%, and a 2.88% increase compared with the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 73.33%, and the planned production in November was 522,300 tons [15] 2.9 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on November 26 - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% grade ranged from 2,100 to 2,800 yuan/metal ton, and the imported processing fee for 48% grade was 70 - 90 US dollars/dry ton [17] 2.10 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on November 26 - The total trading volume of members was 151,221 lots, an increase of 22,642 lots; the total long - position was 71,988 lots, a decrease of 662 lots; the total short - position was 70,148 lots, an increase of 1,765 lots [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the cotton market comprehensively, concluding that the overall situation is neutral. The short - term futures are expected to fluctuate upwards due to factors such as the reduction of export tariffs to the US by 10%, the end of domestic new cotton picking, cost support, and the expectation of consumption recovery. The trading focus is shifting from the 01 contract to the 05 contract as the 01 contract approaches delivery [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Day Review No relevant information provided. 2. Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different estimates for the 25/26 cotton production and consumption. For example, ICAC estimates production at 2540 tons and consumption at 2500 tons; USDA estimates production at 2614.5 tons and consumption at 2588.3 tons; Rural Ministry estimates production at 660 tons, import at 140 tons, consumption at 740 tons, and ending inventory at 845 tons. In October, textile and clothing exports decreased by 12.63% year - on - year, cotton imports decreased by 15.6% year - on - year, and yarn imports increased by 16.7% year - on - year [5]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14882, with a basis of 1297 (05 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture estimates the ending inventory for the 25/26 period in November to be 845 tons, which is bearish [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, but the main trend is still bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: With a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US, the end of domestic new cotton picking, cost support, and the peak inventory period passed, there is an expectation of consumption recovery. The futures are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term [5]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: There are production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory data for multiple countries in different years. For example, in 25/26, the total production is estimated to be 2614.5 tons, total consumption is 2588.3 tons, and total ending inventory is 1653.2 tons [13][14]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 25/26 period, the production is 2539.956 tons, consumption is 2500.778 tons, and ending inventory is 1622.785 tons [16]. - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 25/26 period, the production is estimated to be 660 tons, import is 140 tons, consumption is 740 tons, and ending inventory is 845 tons [17]. 5. Position Data No relevant information provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are oscillating. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk is the El Niño weather [5]. 3. Summary by Category Daily Views - **Soybean Oil** - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and later it will enter the production - reduction season, reducing the supply pressure of palm oil [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8332, with a basis of 182, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% year - on - year increase [2]. - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - Main positions: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2]. - Expectation: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [2]. - **Palm Oil** - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil in terms of the MPOB report. Later, it will enter the production - increase season, increasing the supply of palm oil [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8470, with a basis of 30, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% year - on - year decrease [3]. - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - Main positions: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3]. - Expectation: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 8200 - 8600 [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil** - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil in terms of the MPOB report. Later, it will enter the production - increase season, increasing the supply of palm oil [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10176, with a basis of 358, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% year - on - year increase [4]. - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4]. - Main positions: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4]. - Expectation: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 9500 - 9900 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely to be Bullish**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply [5]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. Supply - Related - The report provides historical data charts of import soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil - mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory,菜籽 inventory, and domestic total oil and fat inventory from 2015 - 2025 [6][7][9][11][17][19][21][23]. Demand - Related - The report provides historical data charts of soybean oil apparent consumption and soybean meal apparent consumption from 2015 - 2025 [13][15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel 2601, it will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The overall situation is bearish considering fundamentals, inventory, and other factors, although the basis is bullish [2]. - For Stainless Steel 2601, it will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average. The overall situation is neutral, with the basis being bullish and the inventory and some other factors being neutral or bearish [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - On November 26, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 117,260, up 1,100 from the previous day; the price of LME Nickel was 14,845, down 75; the price of Stainless Steel's main contract was 12,455, up 50. Among the spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 119,850, up 1,300; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 122,050, up 1,400; 1 imported nickel was 117,800, up 1,100; nickel beans were 119,850, up 1,200. Cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel prices in different regions were mostly stable or slightly increased [11]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of November 21, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory was 39,795 tons, with futures inventory at 33,785 tons, decreasing by 778 tons and 1,242 tons respectively. On November 26, LME nickel inventory was 254,520, up 1,038; Shanghai Nickel's warehouse receipts were 33,944, up 294; the total inventory was 288,464, up 1,332 [13][14]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On November 21, the inventory in Wuxi was 574,000 tons, in Foshan was 353,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,071,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 658,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,000 tons. On November 26, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 63,765, down 125 [18][19]. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On November 26, the price of red - clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged; the price of red - clay nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 29 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The high - nickel ferronickel (8 - 12) was 885 yuan per nickel point, down 2.5; the low - nickel ferronickel (below 2) was 3,200 yuan per ton, unchanged [21]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost was 12,476, the scrap - steel production cost was 12,769, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,274 [23]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 118,983 yuan per ton [26].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-27） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：煤矿端维持正常生产，因事故停产煤矿近日已复产，产量逐步恢复，炼焦煤供应紧张的局 面有所缓解。下游焦企采购炼焦煤态度偏谨慎，贸易商减少市场参与，煤矿出货压力显现，新成交不佳。 线上竞拍成交延续小幅下跌，市场心态有所转弱，矿方继续小幅下调焦煤报价；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1315，基差230.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存819.3万吨，总样本库存1895.4万吨， 较上周减少76.2万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：下游焦钢按需采购，钢厂亏损较大， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年11月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 6、预期：外糖开启短期反弹走势，白糖主力01小幅反弹。考虑到临近交割，交易建议向05合约转 移，短期可能有技术性反弹走势，建议短线空单减持。 2、基差：柳州现货5610，基差301（05合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：截至8月底24/25榨季工业库存116万吨；中性。 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线下方，偏空。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空增，主力趋势偏空，偏空。 利多：国内消费较好，库存降低，糖浆关税增加。美国 可乐改变配方使用蔗糖。 利空：白糖全球产量增加，新一年度全球供应过剩。外 糖 ...