1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels. The supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved. Short - term, it is expected to fluctuate and move downward mainly [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamental analysis shows that alkali plant production is at a high level, with the expected commissioning of Yuangxing Phase II before the end of the year, leading to an expected abundant supply. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and soda ash plant inventories are at historical highs, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - The basis is - 36 yuan, with futures at a premium to spot, which is bearish [2]. - National soda ash plant inventories are 1.5874 million tons, a 3.47% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, bearish [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, bearish [2]. - The net position of the main players is short, and short positions are decreasing, bearish [2]. - Overall, the short - term outlook for soda ash is expected to be mainly in a fluctuating and downward trend [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large commissioning plans this year, with industry production at historical highs [4]. - The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, leading to a weakening demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Main Logic - The main logic is that soda ash supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Low - end Price of Heavy Soda Ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1175 | 1140 | - 35 | | Current Value | 1176 | 1140 | - 36 | | Change Rate | 0.09% | 0.00% | 2.86% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Supply - The profit of heavy soda ash production using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 118.50 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production process is - 221.5 yuan/ton, at historical lows [16]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 84.80% [19]. - The weekly soda ash production is 720,900 tons, including 396,200 tons of heavy soda ash, at historical highs [21]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity, with a total planned new capacity of 1.57 billion tons, and 100 million tons have been actually commissioned in 2025 [22]. 3.7 Fundamentals - Demand - The weekly soda ash production and sales rate is 100.93% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 158,100 tons, and the operating rate is 74.85% [28]. 3.8 Fundamentals - Inventory National soda ash plant inventories are 1.5874 million tons, a 3.47% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [35]. 3.9 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The historical supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, and supply - demand differences from 2017 to 2024E, as well as the growth rates of various indicators [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The glass market has a weak fundamental situation, and it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend in the short term. The supply of glass has stabilized at a low level, downstream deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventories are rising [2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - The fundamentals show that production profit repair is weak, supply contraction is less than expected, downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real estate drag, and inventory is at a historical high in the same period [2]. - The basis is - 53 yuan, with futures at a premium to spot [2]. - The national floating glass enterprise inventory is 62.362 million weight boxes, a 1.49% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. 3.2 Influence Factor Summary - **Likely to be favorable**: "Coal - to - gas" in the Shahe area and industry cold repairs lead to production losses [4]. - **Likely to be unfavorable**: Real estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processing factories are cautious, mainly digesting raw glass inventories [5]. 3.3 Main Logic and Risk Points - **Main logic**: Glass supply has stabilized at a low level, downstream deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventories are rising, so it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend at a low level [6]. - **Risk points**: The intensity of the "anti - involution" policy exceeds expectations [6]. 3.4 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1041 yuan/ton, with a 0.39% increase; the spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate glass is 988 yuan/ton, with no change; the main basis is - 53 yuan, with an 8.16% increase [7]. 3.5 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 988 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost side**: No detailed data is provided in the text. - **Production side**: The number of operating floating glass production lines nationwide is 222, with an operating rate of 74.85%, and the production line operating number is at a historical low in the same period. The daily melting volume is 158,100 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low in the same period [23][25]. - **Demand side**: In September 2025, the apparent consumption of floating glass was 4.7082 million tons [28]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of national floating glass enterprises is 62.362 million weight boxes, a 1.49% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2][41]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: Data from 2017 - 2024E shows the production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio of floating glass. For example, in 2024E, the production is 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, and the production growth rate is 3.94% [42].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. The agricultural demand has increased due to the influence of Northeast China, while the industrial demand is mainly based on demand. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have increased year-on-year. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the pressure on the supply side has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports has improved compared with the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market still has an overall oversupply situation. The spot price of the delivery product is 1650 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. It is expected that the urea futures market will fluctuate today [4]. - The positive factor is the improvement in exports, while the negative factors are the domestic oversupply and the commissioning of new production capacities. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Group 4: Summary by Relevant Catalog Entries Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Daily production and operating rate have rebounded, comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand has increased, industrial demand is based on demand. New production capacity commissioning increases supply pressure. Exports have improved, market sentiment is boosted, but overall supply exceeds demand. Spot price of delivery product is 1650 (+20), fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -18, and the premium/discount ratio is -1.1%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.537 million tons (-28,000), a bearish factor [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, a bearish sign [4]. - **Expectation**: The urea futures market is expected to fluctuate today, with industrial demand based on demand, agricultural demand increasing, and improved exports boosting market sentiment, but the domestic oversupply situation remains obvious [4]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region | Spot Price | Price Change | Futures Contract | Futures Price | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1650 | +20 | 01 Contract | 1668 | +14 | | Shandong Spot | 1650 | +20 | Basis | -18 | +6 | | Henan Spot | 1650 | 0 | UR01 | 1668 | +14 | | FOB China | 2833 | - | UR05 | 1727 | +9 | | - | - | - | UR09 | 1736 | +4 | [6] Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Production Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term demand for low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil around the Singapore hub is expected to remain weak, with buying interest fluctuating. The downstream market is oversupplied, and short - term fuel oil will continue to operate at a low level. FU2601 will operate in the range of 2440 - 2480, and LU2602 will operate in the range of 3000 - 3060 [3] - The supply of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain healthy, but it will limit the price increase potential in the short term, especially when the downstream bunker market demand is weak. High - sulfur fuel oil spot demand is mostly still light, mainly supported by regular contract nominations [3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Futures prices: The current fuel oil futures prices show a decline. The FU main contract futures price dropped from 2497 to 2451, a decrease of 46 or 1.84%. The LU main contract futures price dropped from 3029 to 2992, a decrease of 37 or 1.22% [5] - Spot prices: The spot prices of various types of fuel oil in different regions have decreased to varying degrees. For example, the price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 437.00 to 431.00, a decrease of 6.00 or 1.37% [6] - Price range: FU2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2440 - 2480, and LU2602 in the range of 3000 - 3060 [3] 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Bullish factors: Russian fuel oil export restrictions and the cancellation of US - Russia talks and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4] - Bearish factors: The demand side optimism remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4] 3. Fundamental Data - Supply and demand: Asian low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to be healthy, but short - term price increase potential is limited due to weak downstream demand. High - sulfur fuel oil spot demand is light, mainly supported by contract nominations [3] - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is - 10 yuan/ton, and that of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 59 yuan/ton, with the spot being nearly flat to the futures [3] - Inventory: Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of November 19 was 2344.9 million barrels, an increase of 257 million barrels [3][8] - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3] - Main positions: High - sulfur main positions are short, with short positions decreasing; low - sulfur main positions are long, with long positions decreasing [3] 4. Spread Data - High - and low - sulfur futures spread: The chart shows the spread between high - and low - sulfur futures, but no specific numerical analysis is provided [10] 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory has changed over time. For example, on September 10, it was 2303.9 million barrels, and on November 19, it was 2344.9 million barrels, with an increase of 257 million barrels compared to the previous period [8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-27甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：产区甲醇工厂无库存压力，但港口高库存对整体行情有压制作用，预计本周国内甲醇震荡整理，且部分地 区不排除走跌可能。内地方面来看，虽然当前产区工厂暂无库存压力，但市场消息称托县甲醇装置近期有重启计划，内 地重回高开工弱需求的供应格局，以及港口进口货源持续倒流内地，业者对后市心态谨慎，后期或震荡偏弱。港口方面， 伊朗多套装置停车兑现和港口库存明显去化，才能构成行情反转的支撑点，在此达成之前，期现货深度磨底。预计本周 港口甲醇市场延续探底，不过目前绝对价格来看，预计下方空间有限；关注伊朗装置检修实际落地节点；中性 2 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-27原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2601： 1.基本面：一名俄罗斯高级外交官表示，俄罗斯不会在乌克兰和平计划上做出大的让步；美国能源服 务公司贝克休斯在其备受关注的报告中表示，本周美国能源企业的油气活跃钻机数下降，为四周以来 首次；美联储褐皮书显示，近几周美国经济活动变化不大，但整体消费者支出进一步下滑，高端消费 者例外。周三发布的调查报告显示，就业略有下降，价格温和上涨；中性 2.基差：11月25日，阿曼原油现货价为63.45美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为63.17美元/桶，基差 39.50元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至11月2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry is neutral [12]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations driven by news. The price of lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 92,620 - 96,380 [13][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 22,130 tons, a 2.71% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In October 2025, production was 92,260 tons, and next - month production is forecasted to be 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease. October imports were 23,881 tons, and next - month imports are forecasted to be 27,000 tons, a 13.06% increase [8][13]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 102,584 tons, a 2.05% week - on - week decrease; the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 19,290 tons, a 0.41% week - on - week increase. Next - month demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline [8][13]. - Inventory: Total inventory was 118,420 tons, a 1.70% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. Smelter inventory was 26,104 tons, a 7.66% decrease; downstream inventory was 44,436 tons, an 8.89% decrease; other inventory was 47,880 tons, a 10.25% increase [9]. - Cost: The cost of外购锂辉石精矿 was 88,224 yuan/ton, a 0.31% daily decrease, with a profit of 2,549 yuan/ton. The cost of外购锂云母 was 90,365 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a loss of 1,850 yuan/ton. The recycling - end production cost was generally higher than the ore - end cost, with negative production income. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore - end, with sufficient profit margins [13]. - Market indicators: On November 26, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,800 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 3,540 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The MA20 of the market was upward, and the 05 contract price closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players was short, with a decrease in short positions [13]. - Factors: Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and a decrease in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply from the ore and salt - lake ends, with limited decline [14][15]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Price changes: The price of lithium carbonate and related products showed various fluctuations. For example, the price of lithium carbonate (6%) increased by 4.31% to 1,113 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.81% to 92,800 yuan/ton [19]. - Supply - side data: The weekly operating rate was 75.34%, unchanged. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene decreased by 0.31% to 88,224 yuan/ton. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 92,260 tons, a 5.73% increase [22]. - Demand - side data: The monthly operating rate of the lithium battery industry increased, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate lithium increased by 6.35% and 10.54% respectively. The monthly power battery loading volume increased by 10.66% [22]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and production: The price of lithium ore showed fluctuations over time. The production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica also changed year - on - year [29]. - Supply - demand balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed different situations each month, with some months in short supply and others with a surplus [31][33]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Operating rate and production: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate production from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling) and the monthly production showed different trends. The monthly production of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate also changed [35]. - Supply - demand balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed different situations each month, with some months in short supply and others with a surplus [40]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity utilization and production: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide and the monthly production from different sources (causticization and smelting) showed different trends [42]. - Supply - demand balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations each month, with some months in short supply and others with a surplus [44]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Cost and profit of different raw materials: The cost and profit of lithium compounds produced from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, recycled materials) showed different trends over time [47][49][52]. 3.7 Inventory - Inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide from different sources (downstream, smelter) showed different trends over time [54]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price, production, and loading volume: The price, monthly production, and monthly power battery loading volume of lithium batteries showed different trends over time [57]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price, cost, and production: The price, cost, and monthly production of ternary precursors showed different trends over time. The supply - demand balance from 2024 to 2025 also showed different situations each month [63][66]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price, cost, and production: The price, cost, and monthly production of ternary materials showed different trends over time [69]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price, cost, and production: The price, cost, and monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time [74]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, sales, and penetration rate: The production, sales, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time [82][83].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2420 - 2480. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and will maintain range - bound oscillations [9]. - Rapeseed meal futures have declined, with the spot price fluctuating accordingly. The spot premium has shown slight fluctuations, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has also fluctuated slightly [17][19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a range - bound oscillation. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory is bullish, the price trend on the disk is bearish, the main position is bullish, and the future trend is expected to return to an oscillating pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, with Canadian production higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, supporting commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and low inventory pressure on oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of a settlement in the anti - dumping case of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From November 18th to 26th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract also fluctuated slightly [13]. - From November 18th to 26th, rapeseed meal futures prices fluctuated, and the spot price followed the fluctuations. The spot premium showed slight fluctuations [15][17]. - From November 17th to 26th, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 2745 to 0 [16]. - There are no ship arrival schedules for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs [22]. - Oil mills' rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory are at low levels, and the rapeseed crushing volume remains at zero [24][26]. - Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [34]. 3.5 Position Data No specific position data analysis is provided other than the information that the main long positions have increased and funds have flowed out, which is considered bullish [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | 1万吨 . | ， | 环比持平 。 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8万吨 | ， | 环比减少4 | 76% . | 需求持续低迷 . | | 多 . | | | | | | | | | 晶硅库存为27 1万吨 . | 处于低位 ， | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC has rebounded, and domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may continue to be weak. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4463 - 4515 [4][6]. - The cost of both calcium carbide method and ethylene method has weakened, and the overall cost has decreased. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. Continued attention should be paid to macro - policies and export dynamics [6]. - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand. The main risk points include the implementation of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and the cost support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide method [11][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Likely Positives**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [10]. - **Likely Negatives**: Rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 78.83%, with no month - on - month change. The production of calcium carbide method enterprises was 345,780 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.65%, and the production of ethylene method enterprises was 134,660 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.18%. The supply pressure has increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with a slight increase in production scheduling [4]. 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 49.19%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 36.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 40.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.39 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 71.07%, with no change month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 78.03%, with no change month - on - month, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may continue to be weak [4]. 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 848.08 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 3.40%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 515.89 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 5.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2091.15 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [4]. 3.2.4 Basis - On November 26, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4530 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 41 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [6]. 3.2.5 Inventory - The in - factory inventory was 315,441 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.14%. The calcium carbide method factory inventory was 240,791 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.86%. The ethylene method factory inventory was 74,650 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.04%. The social inventory was 526,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.05%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.3 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.85%, showing a neutral situation [6]. 3.2.6 Disk - The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish situation [6]. 3.2.7 Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased, showing a bearish situation [6]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview data, including prices, spreads, inventories, operating rates, profits, and costs of different PVC varieties and contracts [14]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - It includes the basis trend, trading volume, price trend, position change trend, and spread analysis of the main contract of PVC futures [16][19][22]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Aspects 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide Method - Related - It involves the price, cost, profit, operating rate, inventory, and production of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit situation of chlor - alkali in Shandong [25][28][30][33]. 3.5.2 PVC Supply Trend - It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method of PVC [38][40]. 3.5.3 Demand Trend - It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - to - production ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, operating rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin), and the profit, production, and apparent consumption of paste resin. It also involves real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year [42][45][53]. 3.5.4 Inventory - It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory warehouse inventory, ethylene method factory warehouse inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [57]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Method - It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, ethylene method FOB spread, and vinyl chloride import spread [60]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [62].