1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Recently, there have been few maintenance activities at soda ash plants, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of float glass downstream is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has declined, and terminal demand has weakened. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, indicating a bearish situation [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,287 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 87 yuan. The futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% compared with the previous week. The inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][37]. - **Market trend**: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish situation [2]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Given the supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals of soda ash, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The peak maintenance period of the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - start - up plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high in the same period; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy Soda Ash: Low - end Price in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous value | 1,281 yuan/ton | 1,190 yuan/ton | - 91 yuan | | Current value | 1,287 yuan/ton | 1,200 yuan/ton | - 87 yuan | | Change rate | 0.47% | 0.84% | - 4.40% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [12]. 3.5 Fundamentals - Supply - **Production profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 97.20 yuan/ton, and that of the co - production process in East China is - 86 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating rate and production capacity output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 75.92%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production of soda ash is 751,700 tons, including 411,200 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [18][20]. - **Changes in production capacity**: In 2023, the newly - added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production - start - up of 1 million tons [22]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Demand - **Production - sales ratio**: The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 97.80% [25]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate of 75.92% is stable; the price of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume has continued a significant downward trend [28][34]. 3.7 Fundamentals - Inventory The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [37]. 3.8 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply last week was 90,000 tons, remaining flat week-on-week, while demand was 81,000 tons, down 1.21% week-on-week, indicating persistent weak demand. The cost support in Xinjiang has weakened during the wet season. The price of industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,525 - 8,805 [6][8]. - For polysilicon, last week's production was 30,200 tons, down 2.58% week-on-week, and the September production schedule is forecasted to be 126,700 tons, down 3.79% month-on-month. The overall demand shows continuous recovery, but the cost support has weakened. The price of polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51,820 - 53,950 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Bearish. The supply and demand situation shows weak demand, and the cost support has weakened [6]. - **Basis**: Bullish. On September 10, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 8,950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11th contract was 285 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. The social inventory was 537,000 tons, down 0.73% week-on-week; the sample enterprise inventory was 170,800 tons, down 1.55% week-on-week; and the main port inventory was 117,000 tons, down 1.68% week-on-week [8]. - **Market Chart**: Bullish. The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11th contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: Bearish. The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: The supply schedule has increased and is near the historical average, while demand recovery remains at a low level, and cost support has increased slightly [8]. Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Bullish. Although production has decreased, demand in downstream sectors such as wafers, cells, and modules shows an upward trend, with module production in a profitable state [10]. - **Basis**: Bearish. On September 10, the price of N-type dense material was 50,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11th contract was -1,335 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [10]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The weekly inventory was 211,000 tons, down 0.93% week-on-week, at a historically low level [10]. - **Market Chart**: Bullish. The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11th contract closed above the MA20 [10]. - **Main Position**: Bullish. The main position is net long, and the long position has increased [10]. - **Expectation**: Supply schedules continue to decrease, while demand in downstream sectors continues to increase, with overall demand showing continuous recovery, but cost support has weakened [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Industrial Silicon**: Provides detailed data on prices, inventories, production, and cost - profit of industrial silicon contracts, as well as data on its downstream sectors such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [16][17][18]. - **Polysilicon**: Presents data on prices, inventories, production, and cost - profit of polysilicon contracts, as well as data on its downstream sectors such as wafers, cells, and modules [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 69,200 - 72,240 yuan/ton. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, with positive factors including manufacturers' shutdown and production - cut plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include high - level supply from ore and salt lake ends with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [8][10][14][15][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,419 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.04%, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the production was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86,730 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%. The import volume in August 2025 was 17,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.71% [8][10]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,756 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.28%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,644 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted [8][10]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 73,889 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 2.46%, with a production loss of 1,507 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lepidolite is 77,715 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.46%, with a production loss of 7,321 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is generally higher than that at the ore end, and the production income is negative, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Other Indicators**: - **Base Difference**: On September 10, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,450 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 2,730 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a bullish signal [13]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory is 140,092 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.73%, higher than the historical average. Among them, the smelter inventory is 39,475 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.90%, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory is 55,207 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.56%, higher than the historical average; other inventories are 45,410 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.91%, higher than the historical average [13]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish signal [13]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Lithium Carbonate Market Overview**: - **Price Changes**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as spodumene, lepidolite concentrate, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have generally decreased. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) decreased from 879 to 849 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.41% [18]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 66.41%. The daily production cost of spodumene decreased by 2.47% to 73,889 yuan/ton, and the monthly processing cost increased by 4.49% to 20,700 yuan/ton. The production cost of lepidolite also decreased, with the daily cost at 77,715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46% [20]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.96% to 264,720 tons, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 8.84% to 316,400 tons. The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.28% to 94,756 tons, and the weekly inventory of ternary materials decreased by 1.05% to 17,644 tons [20]. - **Supply - Lithium Ore**: - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has shown certain fluctuations over the years. The production of domestic spodumene mines and lepidolite has different trends in different years. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has increased significantly, with the import volume from Australia increasing by 67.24% in a certain period [26]. - **Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The self - sufficiency rates of spodumene, lithium ore, and lepidolite have different trends over time [26]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows different situations in different months, with a tight supply - demand relationship in some months [28]. - **Supply - Lithium Carbonate**: - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate from different sources (spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, and recycled materials) has different trends. The monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate have also changed over time. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in August 2025 was 85,240 tons [31]. - **Import and Export**: The import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile has decreased in a certain period. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate shows different situations in different months, with a surplus in some months and a deficit in others [36][39]. - **Supply - Lithium Hydroxide**: - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has changed over time. The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting and causticizing) and the total production have different trends. The export volume of lithium hydroxide has also changed in different years [42]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows different situations in different months, with a surplus in some months and a deficit in others [45]. - **Lithium Compound Cost and Profit**: - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The cost and profit of producing lithium carbonate from purchased spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and recycled materials have different trends over time. The processing cost of lithium ore and the profit of lithium carbonate import also show different situations [48][50]. - **Profit of Lithium Hydroxide Processing**: The profit and cost of processing lithium hydroxide by different methods (smelting and causticizing), the profit of converting lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate, and the profit of exporting lithium hydroxide have different trends [53]. - **Inventory**: - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelter, downstream, and others) have different trends. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts has also changed over time [55]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelter and downstream) has different trends [55]. - **Demand - Lithium Battery**: - **Battery Price and Production**: The price of lithium batteries has changed over time. The monthly production of battery cells for different purposes (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy storage) has also changed. The monthly output of power batteries has decreased in a certain period [59]. - **Battery Cost and Inventory**: The cost of battery cells has different trends. The inventory of lithium battery cells for different purposes (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy storage battery) has also changed [59][61]. - **Demand - Ternary Precursor**: - **Price and Cost**: The prices of different types of ternary precursors have changed over time. The cost and profit of ternary precursors also show different situations [64]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The monthly production of ternary precursors of different types (333, 523, 622, 811, NCA) and the total production have different trends. The capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors has also changed [64]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors shows different situations in different months, with a surplus in some months and a deficit in others [67]. - **Demand - Ternary Material**: - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The prices of different types of ternary materials have changed over time. The cost - profit trends of ternary materials also show different situations [70]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production of ternary materials has different trends. The weekly inventory of ternary materials has also changed [70][72]. - **Demand - Lithium Iron Phosphate/Phosphoric Acid Iron**: - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The prices of lithium iron phosphate and phosphoric acid iron have changed over time. The cost - profit trends of lithium iron phosphate also show different situations [74]. - **Production and Inventory**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and phosphoric acid iron has different trends. The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate has also changed [77][79]. - **Demand - New Energy Vehicle**: - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have different trends over time. The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased [82][83]. - **Inventory and Retail - Wholesale Ratio**: The inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers, as well as the retail - wholesale ratios of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles, have different trends [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the asphalt market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3429 - 3471 [7][9]. - The fundamentals are bullish, with the cost side supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. The basis is bullish as the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The inventory situation is mixed, with social and factory inventories decreasing and port inventories increasing. The market sentiment is bearish in terms of the moving average and the net short position of the main contract [7][8][9]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include the relatively high cost of crude oil providing some support, while bearish factors are the lack of demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward trend in demand along with the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the planned domestic asphalt production was 2413,000 tons, a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 30.501%, a 0.90 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month. The output of sample enterprises was 509,000 tons, a 2.86% month - on - month decrease, and the estimated device maintenance volume was 685,000 tons, a 0.44% month - on - month increase. Refineries have reduced production recently, which will ease supply pressure [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand for asphalt is below the historical average. The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, and road - modified asphalt is either decreasing or remaining flat and lower than the historical average, while the construction rate of waterproofing membranes has a slight increase but is still below the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 513.38 yuan/ton, a 3.00% month - on - month decrease. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 792.0771 yuan/ton, a 6.94% month - on - month increase. The loss in asphalt processing is decreasing, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking is increasing. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - **Basis**: On September 10, the spot price in Shandong was 3540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 90 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 1225,000 tons, a 3.54% month - on - month decrease; factory inventory is 642,000 tons, a 4.74% month - on - month decrease; port diluted asphalt inventory is 320,000 tons, a 68.42% month - on - month increase [9]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20. The main contract has a net short position, and the short position is decreasing [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: Charts show the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [18][19]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [21][22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: Charts show the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [24][25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [27][28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: Charts show the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [31][33]. 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: A chart shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [36][37]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: A chart shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [39][40][41]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: A chart shows the historical weekly shipment volumes of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [42][43]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: A chart shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [44][45]. - **Production Volume**: Charts show the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [47][48]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: A chart shows the historical price trends of Marine crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [51][53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: A chart shows the historical asphalt production of local refineries from 2019 to 2025 [54][55]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: A chart shows the historical weekly capacity utilization rates of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [57][58]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss**: A chart shows the historical estimated maintenance loss trends of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [59][60]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: Charts show the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [62][63][64]. - **Social and Factory Inventories**: Charts show the historical social and factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [66][67]. - **Factory Inventory Ratio**: A chart shows the historical factory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [69][70]. - **Import - Export Analysis**: - **Export and Import Trends**: Charts show the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [72][73]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread**: A chart shows the historical import spread trends of Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [75][76][77]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: A chart shows the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [78][79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: A chart shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - **Downstream Demand**: Charts show the historical trends of downstream demand, including highway construction investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator working hours, and the sales of domestic excavators and road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [84][85][86][88][89]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt**: A chart shows the historical construction rates of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [93][94]. - **By - Use Asphalt**: Charts show the historical construction rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [96][97]. - **Downstream Construction Conditions**: Charts show the historical construction rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and other downstream products from 2019 to 2025 [99][100][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: A table shows the monthly supply - demand balance of asphalt from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and demand [104][105].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 fluctuates in the range of 2520 - 2580. The market is affected by soybean meal trends, technical oscillations, and awaits the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term spot demand is in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain. The market is expected to be in a volatile and slightly strong pattern in the short term [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in the 2520 - 2580 range. The market is influenced by multiple factors and is expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short term [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the tight supply expectation in the spot market, with good demand expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. Geopolitical conflicts may still rise and support commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2600, and the basis is 67, indicating a premium over the futures, which is a positive factor. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.8 million tons, a 28% week - on - week decrease from 2.5 million tons last week and a 25% year - on - year decrease from 2.4 million tons last year, which is a positive factor. - **Market Trends**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is a negative factor [9]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out, which is a negative factor [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific information about the report industry investment rating provided in the text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term trend of soybean meal is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. The market is focused on the impact of US soybean planting weather and the game of Sino - US trade tariffs. The US soybean production outlook and Sino - US trade negotiations are still uncertain. The short - term price of soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3040 and 3100 [8]. - **Soybeans**: The short - term trend of domestic soybeans is affected by the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals. The domestic soybean A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3880 and 3980 [10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints There is no specific content for daily hints in the provided text. 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term bullish for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean growth and harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in August. Affected by the relatively bullish data of the August USDA report and the rise of rapeseed meal, soybean meal is short - term oscillating and slightly bullish [12]. - The reduction of domestic pig - raising profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent recovery of soybean meal demand supports the price, and due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, soybean meal returns to the range - bound pattern [12]. - The inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the variables of the Sino - US tariff war, soybean meal is short - term bullish and oscillating, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal**: Bullish factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and variable weather in US soybean - producing areas; bearish factors include high arrival volume of imported soybeans in September and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybeans**: Bullish factors are the cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand; bearish factors are the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2960, with a basis of - 106, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil - mill soybean meal is 113.62 million tons, a 5.32% increase from last week and a 15.76% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 289, indicating a premium to the futures. The inventory of oil - mill soybeans is 731.7 million tons, a 5% increase from last week and a 6.17% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions are decreasing, but the capital is flowing in [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main long positions are increasing, but the capital is flowing out [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Likely Positive Factors**: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [12] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12] - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Likely Positive Factors**: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [12] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12] - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [13] - **Main Risk Points**: Implementation degree of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and cost - support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide method [14] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - side - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 327,885 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 134,060 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a small increase in scheduled production [7] 3.2.2 Demand - side - The overall downstream start - up rate was 43.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.899 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile start - up rate was 38.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe start - up rate was 33.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film start - up rate was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin start - up rate was 74.07%, a month - on - month increase of 0.809 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7] 3.2.3 Cost - side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 420.96 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 5.40%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 670.97 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 6.80%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,577.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in profit of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [8] 3.2.4 Basis - On September 10, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,710 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 147 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish [9] 3.2.5 Inventory - Factory inventory was 315,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 64,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. Social inventory was 533,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.25 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.96%. It is bearish [9] 3.2.6 Disk - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish [9] 3.2.7 Main Position - The net position of the main position is short, and short positions increased. It is bearish [9] 3.2.8 Expectation - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with an increase in scheduled production. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,827 - 4,887 [9]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The manufacturing industry's prosperity has improved, with the official PMI in August at 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI at 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. However, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has become tense again due to the Israeli attack on the capital of Qatar on September 9th. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being formulated to address long - term overcapacity [4][8]. - For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are neutral, with the spot price of the delivery product at 7220 (unchanged). The market is expected to be volatile today, with the demand for agricultural films recovering but still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory being neutral [4]. - For PP, the overall fundamentals are neutral, with the spot price of the delivery product at 6980 (unchanged). The market is expected to be volatile today, with new production capacity being put into operation recently and the demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving showing improvement expectations [8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: Macroeconomic indicators show improved manufacturing prosperity. The demand for agricultural films is slowly recovering but is still weaker than usual, and other packaging films are mainly purchased as needed. The overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 6, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.1%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 54.5 million tons (+3.5), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, while weak demand is a bearish factor [6]. - **Main Logic and Risks**: The main logic is based on cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies. The main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [7]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - situation shows improved manufacturing prosperity. There is new production capacity, and the downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is expected to improve. The overall fundamentals are neutral [8]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 32, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.5%, which is neutral [8]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 57.5 million tons (-0.8), which is bearish [8]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [8]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [8]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today [8]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, while weak demand is a bearish factor [10]. - **Main Logic and Risks**: The main logic is based on cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies. The main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [11]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4319.5 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [17]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [19].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-9-11 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润回落，行业冷修高位，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；下游深加工 订单不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1088元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1181元/吨，基差为-93元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6305万重量箱，较前一周增加0.77%，库存在5年均值上方运行； 偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 3、"反内卷"市场情绪消退。 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主要逻辑：玻璃供给下滑至同期较低水 ...

沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年9月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘小幅反弹，20均线压力较大。产业链上，矿价部分小幅回落，镍铁价格稳中有升，成 本线坚挺。不锈钢库存继续回落，期待金九银十的表现，关注库存变化。新能源汽车产销数据较好，但 三元电池装车量同比下降，总体需求提振受限。短期关注反内卷的再次影响，中长线过剩格局不变。偏 空 2、基差：现货121550，基差700，偏多 3、库存：LME库存221094，+3024，上交所仓单22304，-295，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2510：震荡运行，下方成本线有支撑。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格持平， ...