Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of oils and fats rose during the day. The pre - holiday stockpiling before the double festivals supported the oil prices to some extent. There were strong expectations of a consumption peak season and decreasing supply in the fourth quarter, but the high domestic inventory and weak spot market sentiment limited the increase of soybean oil prices. For the Y2601 contract, it was advisable to hold long positions, with support at 8300 - 8330 yuan/ton and resistance at 8460 - 8500 yuan/ton. Buying out - of - the - money call options was also recommended. For rapeseed oil, due to the anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseeds, the market expected a reduction in Canadian rapeseed purchases. The increase in imports from Russia, Dubai, and Australia could partly make up for the supply. Palm oil was in a seasonal inventory - building period, but the export demand improved, and there was an expectation of an increase in the biodiesel blending ratio [3][4]. - **Feed Grains**: For corn and corn starch, the external market had some factors supporting the prices, but the expected high yield in the Northern Hemisphere and inventory build - up in the US would limit the increase. In the domestic market, it was a game between low channel inventory and seasonal pressure. It was recommended to hold short positions cautiously [7]. - **Grains and Beans**: The price of soybeans No. 1 continued to decline. There was an expectation of a good harvest of new soybeans, and with the increase in supply, it was advisable to hold short positions. For peanuts, there was an expectation of an increase in production, and the seasonal supply pressure affected the prices, but the pre - holiday stockpiling had a certain supporting effect [8][9]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The price of live pigs fluctuated weakly. There was a strong expectation of capacity reduction, and it was recommended to hold long positions. The price of eggs fluctuated and was at a low level. It was recommended to buy at low prices considering the consumption peak season [10]. Summary by Directory Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Analysis - **Oils and Fats and Oilseeds**: Soybeans No. 1 and No. 2 were expected to be bearish or in adjustment. Peanuts were in an adjustment phase, and it was advisable to short lightly. Soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil were expected to be bullish, and it was recommended to hold long positions or buy at low prices [13]. - **Protein Feed**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal were in different market conditions. Soybean meal was expected to be weakly bearish, and it was advisable to wait and see. Rapeseed meal was expected to be bullish, and it was recommended to buy at low prices [13]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn and corn starch were under pressure, and it was recommended to hold short positions [13]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: Live pigs were expected to rebound, and it was recommended to hold long positions. Eggs were in a process of finding a bottom, and it was advisable to buy at low prices [13]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: For some varieties like soybean meal 3 - 5, it was recommended to conduct positive spreads. For others, it was mostly recommended to wait and see [14][15]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: For some oil - related spreads, different strategies such as shorting, going long, or waiting and seeing were recommended. For the oil - meal ratio of soybeans, it was recommended to go long [15]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provided spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, including oils and fats, protein feeds, energy and by - products, and livestock and poultry [16]. Part Two: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: Included import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates [18]. - **Weekly Data**: Provided inventory and operating rate data of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [20]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: Showed the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil [20]. - **Weekly Data**: Provided data on corn consumption, inventory, and starch enterprise operating rate and inventory [21]. 3. Livestock and Poultry - **Daily Data**: Included daily data of live pigs and eggs, such as prices and price changes [22][23]. - **Weekly Data**: Provided weekly key data of live pigs and eggs, including supply, demand, cost, and profit data [24][26]. Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock and Poultry**: Included charts of live pig and egg futures and spot prices, as well as related data such as piglet prices and chicken苗 prices [27][31][33] - **Oils and Fats and Oilseeds**: Included charts of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanut production, inventory, trading volume, and spreads [36][46][55] - **Feed**: Included charts of corn, corn starch, rapeseed - related, and soybean meal - related data, such as prices, inventory, and spreads [61][69][73][80] Part Four: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils and Fats The report provided charts of historical volatility of various varieties and options trading volume and open interest data of corn [95][96][97] Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils and Fats The report provided charts of warehouse receipt quantities of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [98][99][100]

期货研究院 新能源产业链日度策略 New Energy Industry Chain daily Report 能源化工团队|有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 魏朝明 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3077171 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015738 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578971 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年09月16日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 碳酸锂： 【市场逻辑】 现货方面，周二SMM电池级碳酸锂指数价格72835元/吨，环比上 一工作日上涨455元/吨；电池级碳酸锂7.19-7.38万元/吨，均价7. 285万元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨400元/吨；工业级碳酸锂7-7.1 2万元/吨，均价7.06万元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨400元/吨，现 货成交价格重心呈震荡上行态势。 碳酸锂期货 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soft commodities: International raw sugar has mixed factors. Brazilian sugarcane production has recovered, but there are also factors like narrowed sugar - ethanol price spread and fires. In China, the new sugar - making season has started with high imports, causing supply pressure. For pulp, although the fundamentals lack obvious positive factors, policy expectations and sentiment have improved, providing some support. For double - offset paper, the upward drive is unclear despite the approaching peak season. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate both overseas and in China. In the fresh fruit sector, apple prices are expected to be in a range, and for jujubes, short - selling is recommended [3][4][7][8]. Summary According to the Directory Part I: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2601, use an interval approach due to the new - season expected difference and trading value disputes. The support range is 7500 - 7600, and the pressure range is 8500 - 8600. For Jujube 2601, short - sell at high prices as the overall commodity sentiment is strong and jujubes enter the production - forming period in the third quarter. The support range is 10500 - 11000, and the pressure range is 11500 - 12000 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, use short - term operations as raw sugar rebounds slightly and Zhengzhou sugar stabilizes at a low level. The support range is 5480 - 5500, and the pressure range is 5580 - 5600. For Pulp 2511, take a bearish view within the range as the supply pressure remains and the finished paper price is low. The support range is 4900 - 4950, and the pressure range is 5150 - 5200. For Double - offset Paper 2601, short - sell on rebounds as the approaching peak season supports the price, but the upward height may be limited. The support range is 4100 - 4200, and the pressure range is 4400 - 4500. For Cotton 2601, use an interval approach as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and state - reserve selling news cause price fluctuations. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 14300 - 14400 [18]. Part II: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In July, China's fresh apple exports were about 53,600 tons, a 44.59% month - on - month increase but an 18.39% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, the cumulative exports were about 464,300 tons, a 6.0% year - on - year decrease. As of September 11, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 255,800 tons, a 50,400 - ton week - on - week decrease and a 143,100 - ton year - on - year decrease. The estimated national apple production is 37.3664 million tons, a 2.35% increase from the 2024 - 2025 season. In the spot market, Shandong's apple prices are stable, and the prices of early - maturing varieties vary [19][20]. - **Jujube Market**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points is 9321 tons, a 0.95% month - on - month decrease but a 78.32% year - on - year increase. The market arrival volume is low, and the trading atmosphere is light [22]. - **Sugar Market**: In August, the sugarcane yield in Brazil's central - southern region was 77.5 tons per hectare, a 1.6% decrease from 2024, and the sugar - extraction rate decreased by 2.9% to 144.2 kg per ton. On September 15, the closing price of ICE raw sugar was 16.67 cents per pound. The estimated cost of Brazilian sugar after processing and tax payment is 4556 yuan per ton within the quota and 5805 yuan per ton outside the quota. Spot sugar prices in some regions are stable or slightly down [24]. - **Pulp Market**: Due to low domestic prices and sufficient supply, customers demand a price cut for imported bleached softwood pulp. Some suppliers may adjust prices. The price of imported NBSK is stable at 680 - 700 US dollars per ton. Suppliers have raised the price of South American bleached hardwood pulp [27]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: In Shandong, the mainstream price of high - white double - offset paper is 4700 - 4800 yuan per ton, and some prices are down. In other regions like Guangdong, Beijing, and Sichuan, prices are stable or slightly adjusted, and the market demand is weak [28][29]. - **Cotton Market**: Brazil's cotton picking progress is 90%, and the processing progress exceeds 30%. Egypt's cotton net export signing decreased by 60.7% week - on - week. Australia's cotton harvest progress is about 85%, and new - cotton sowing has started in some areas. In July 2025, the US cotton product import volume decreased by 1.57% year - on - year, and the import volume from China decreased significantly [30][31]. Part III: Market Review - **Futures Market**: The closing price of Apple 2601 is 8269, a 0.42% decrease; Jujube 2601 is 10805, a 0.55% decrease; Sugar 2601 is 5547, a 0.04% decrease; Pulp 2511 is 5068, a 0.24% increase; Cotton 2601 is 13895, a 0.07% increase [33]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of apples is 3.75 yuan per catty, unchanged month - on - month but a 0.20 - yuan increase year - on - year; jujubes are 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a 0.10 - yuan month - on - month decrease and a 5.30 - yuan year - on - year decrease; sugar is 5890 yuan per ton, unchanged month - on - month but a 500 - yuan year - on - year decrease; pulp (Shandong Yinxing) is 5650 yuan, unchanged month - on - month but a 400 - yuan year - on - year decrease; double - offset paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) is 4500 yuan, unchanged month - on - month but a 600 - yuan year - on - year decrease; cotton is 15300 yuan per ton, a 51 - yuan month - on - month increase and a 426 - yuan year - on - year increase [40]. Part IV: Basis Situation No relevant content provided. Part V: Inter - monthly Spread Situation - The 10 - 1 spread of apples is 167, a 32 - point month - on - month increase and a 447 - point year - on - year increase, expected to fluctuate repeatedly, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see. - The 9 - 1 spread of jujubes is 395, a 435 - point month - on - month increase and a 1140 - point year - on - year increase, expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see. - The 1 - 5 spread of sugar is 23, unchanged month - on - month but a 9 - point year - on - year decrease, expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see. - The 1 - 5 spread of cotton is 35, unchanged month - on - month but a 70 - point year - on - year increase, expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see temporarily [60]. Part VI: Futures Position Situation No specific summary content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned. Part VII: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volume of apples is 0, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - The warehouse receipt volume of jujubes is 8900, a 226 - unit month - on - month decrease and a 2804 - unit year - on - year increase. - The warehouse receipt volume of sugar is 11268, a 57 - unit month - on - month decrease and a 2244 - unit year - on - year decrease. - The warehouse receipt volume of pulp is 244834, a 186 - unit month - on - month decrease and a 236181 - unit year - on - year decrease. - The warehouse receipt volume of cotton is 4759, a 140 - unit month - on - month decrease and a 2638 - unit year - on - year decrease [86]. Part VIII: Option - related Data No specific summary content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned.

Group 1: Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The central bank super - week is coming, and the trading of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may continue, causing non - ferrous metals to fluctuate strongly. The degree of interest - rate cut fulfillment will affect the subsequent trend. China's economic data in August shows "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption", and the expectation of a new round of policy easing is rising. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" is coming, and the demand for non - ferrous metals may improve marginally, but the upward space still requires the positive resonance of each variety's fundamentals and the macro - environment [12]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The central bank super - week is here, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation trading may continue. The fulfillment of the interest - rate cut will affect the subsequent trend. China's economic data in August shows a weak situation, and the expectation of policy easing is rising. The weak US employment data boosts the interest - rate cut expectation, and the US dollar is weak. The demand for non - ferrous metals may improve marginally during the "Golden September and Silver October" [12]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Strategy**: - **Copper**: The recent rise in copper prices has suppressed domestic downstream demand, and domestic social inventories have increased. However, the total inventory is still low. US manufacturing is in an expansion cycle, and copper demand is strong. Domestic smelter production may decline in September. The price center of Shanghai copper is expected to move up, with a support range of 79,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 81,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips [3][14]. - **Zinc**: The trading of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is volatile. Zinc prices are stronger overseas and weaker domestically. Downstream procurement is relatively light, and inventories are slightly increasing. The recommended strategy is to be slightly bullish on dips, with a support range of 21,600 - 21,800 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 22,800 - 23,200 yuan/ton [4][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: - **Aluminum**: The main short - positions in Shanghai aluminum have increased. It is recommended to exit long positions, with a support range of 20,000 - 20,200 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 21,000 - 21,200 yuan/ton. - **Alumina**: The spot price is falling, and production capacity is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies, with a support range of 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 3,700 - 3,900 yuan/ton. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: The price is supported by high scrap purchase prices, and demand has improved marginally. It is recommended to reduce long positions, with a support range of 20,000 - 20,300 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 20,800 - 21,000 yuan/ton [5][14]. - **Tin**: The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to be bearish, with a support range of 250,000 - 255,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to reduce long positions [6][16]. - **Lead**: The US dollar is回调, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation still exists. The profit of recycled lead has recovered, and there may be a resumption of production in October. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a support range of 16,600 - 16,800 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 17,200 - 17,400 yuan/ton [8][17]. - **Nickel**: The price fluctuates due to macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances. The supply of refined nickel is increasing slowly, and demand is stable. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips, with a support range of 115,000 - 116,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 123,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [9][17]. - **Stainless Steel**: The cost support is effective. Supply is expected to increase, and demand may pick up. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips, with a support range of 12,700 - 12,800 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton [9][17]. Part 2: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures are provided, such as copper closing at 80,940 yuan/ton with a - 0.15% change, zinc at 22,310 yuan/ton with a 0.02% change, etc. [18] Part 3: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The net long - short positions, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various non - ferrous metals contracts are presented, including alumina, copper, zinc, etc. [20] Part 4: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, such as copper spot price at 81,100 yuan/ton with a 0.02% change, zinc at 22,250 yuan/ton with a 0.04% change, etc. [21][23] Part 5: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each non - ferrous metal (copper, zinc, aluminum, etc.), relevant industry chain charts are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price relationships [26][29][31]. Part 6: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - For each non - ferrous metal, relevant arbitrage charts are provided, such as copper's Shanghai - London ratio change, zinc's Shanghai - London ratio change, etc. [58][60]. Part 7: Non - ferrous Metals Options - For each non - ferrous metal, relevant option charts are provided, such as copper's option historical volatility, zinc's option weighted implied volatility, etc. [75][77].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean oil market is currently mixed with both bullish and bearish factors. The Y2601 contract may oscillate widely between 8250 - 8450 in the short - term and is expected to rise in the long - term. Consider buying out - of - the - money call options or going long on the 01 contract bean oil - meal ratio [3]. - China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports may lead to a significant reduction in Canadian rapeseed purchases. The rapeseed market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [3]. - Malaysian palm oil is in a seasonal inventory accumulation phase. The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and it is advisable to go long with a light position [4]. - The corn and corn starch markets are under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [6]. - The hog market is in a low - level consolidation phase. It is advisable to wait for capacity reduction to be confirmed and then consider going long on the 2601 contract [9]. - The egg market has rebounded. It is recommended to avoid short - selling rashly and consider going long on the 2511 contract at a low price [9]. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Judgment - For soybeans (including bean one and bean two), the supply is expected to increase, and the market is expected to be bearish or volatile. For peanuts, the new season has increased production and reduced costs, and the market is expected to be volatile. For soy oil, the market is expected to be slightly bullish. For rapeseed oil, the market is expected to be slightly bullish. For palm oil, the market is expected to be slightly bearish. For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the market is expected to be volatile. For corn and starch, the market is under pressure. For hogs, the market is expected to rebound. For eggs, the market is expected to find a bottom [12]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - For inter - month spreads, it is recommended to wait and see for most varieties, except for the 3 - 5 spread of soybean meal (go long on the spread) and the 1 - 3 spread of hogs (go long on the spread at a low price) and the 10 - 1 spread of eggs (go long on the spread at a low price). For inter - commodity spreads, it is recommended to go short on the 01 soybean oil - palm oil spread, go long on the 01 rapeseed oil - soybean oil spread, and go long on the 01 bean oil - meal ratio [13][14]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various commodities in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [15]. Part Two: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates, such as the CNF price, import duty - paid price, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [17]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils, including soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [19]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. 3. Livestock - It provides daily and weekly data on hogs and eggs, including spot prices, price changes, production, consumption, and inventory data [21][23][25]. Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - It includes a large number of charts related to the livestock, oilseeds and oils, and feed sectors, such as the closing prices of futures contracts, spot prices, inventory, production, and consumption data of various commodities [26][35][60]. Part Four: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - It provides the historical volatility charts of various commodities' options, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [94]. Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - It provides the warehouse receipt quantity charts of various commodities, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugarcane production recovery exceeds expectations, putting pressure on the global sugar market. In China, new - season sugar production is expected to increase, and imports are high, but the spot price is stable due to thin inventory. Zhengzhou sugar futures are hovering at a low level [4]. - **Pulp**: As the peak season approaches, downstream demand for pulp replenishment may increase, but the magnitude is uncertain. The pulp market is stabilizing, and the recent listing of offset paper may support pulp futures. However, the upward drive for pulp prices is insufficient, and it is likely to trade in a low - level range [5]. - **Offset Paper**: The spot price of offset paper is stable, and there are expectations of improved demand in the peak season, which supports the futures price. But the fundamental situation is still weak, and the upward price movement may be limited [7][8]. - **Cotton**: The USDA September report has a slightly positive impact on the global cotton market, but the market is still under pressure. In China, there is a game between tight old - season supply and expected loose new - season supply, and cotton futures are likely to fluctuate within a range [9]. - **Apples**: The impact of the old - season apples on the market is coming to an end. The market is focused on the new - season production and quality. Apple futures are expected to trade within a range [10]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube futures price fell sharply. The inventory is being depleted, and the market is in a state of seeking a direction. Aggressive investors can short the 2601 contract, while cautious investors can hold a short 01 and long 05 spread position [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2601, use a range - trading strategy with a support range of 7500 - 7600 and a pressure range of 8500 - 8600. For Jujube 2601, consider shorting at high prices, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000 [19]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, stay on the sidelines. For Pulp 2511, take a bearish view within the range. For Offset Paper 2601, short on rebounds. For Cotton 2601, use a range - trading strategy [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In July, China's fresh apple exports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. As of September, the cold - storage inventory decreased. Different institutions have different estimates of the new - season apple production. The spot price in Shandong is stable, and the market in the sales area is also stable [20][21][22]. - **Jujube Market**: The inventory of 36 sample points decreased slightly. The market in the sales area is light, and the mentality of holders is divided [23]. - **Sugar Market**: The USDA's September report shows the sugar production and inventory/consumption ratio in the US. The ICE 11 - sugar non - commercial net short position increased. The domestic sugar spot price is stable [24][26]. - **Pulp Market**: The decline in domestic spot and futures prices of bleached softwood pulp has suppressed import volume. The price of bleached hardwood pulp has been raised twice [29]. - **Offset Paper Market**: The market is basically stable. The trading atmosphere is weak, and prices in different regions are stable [30][31]. - **Cotton Market**: India's cotton production and import expectations have increased, and its ending inventory has risen. In the US, the sales and inventory data of clothing and fabric in July show certain trends [32][33]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market**: The closing prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Apple 2601, Jujube 2601, Sugar 2601, Pulp 2511, and Cotton 2601 are provided [34]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and cotton are presented [39]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific analysis content provided, only related charts are mentioned [51]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation The inter - month spreads of apples, jujubes, sugar, and cotton are in a state of range - bound trading, and the recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [59]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific analysis content provided, only related charts are mentioned [68]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation The warehouse receipt quantities, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton are given [88]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data - **Apple Options**: No specific data analysis provided, only related charts are mentioned [89]. - **Sugar Options**: No specific data analysis provided, only related charts are mentioned [96]. - **Cotton Options**: No specific data analysis provided, only related charts are mentioned [101].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium salt market is currently experiencing strong supply and demand. With the peak demand season and pre - National Day restocking by downstream enterprises, the short - term inventory depletion trend is expected to accelerate. Downstream enterprises are advised to seize futures buy - hedge opportunities according to their risk management needs [3][5]. - The industrial silicon market shows a situation of weak reality and strong policy expectations. The supply is steadily increasing, and the demand is driven by polysilicon. The price is in a stalemate, and the futures price fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to take an interval trading approach and consider taking profits on long positions at high prices [6]. - The polysilicon market has a supply - strong and demand - weak fundamental pattern. Although the overseas demand for battery cells is good, the market is still in a state of oversupply. The price operation logic depends on future policy clarity and implementation. It is advisable to consider buying on dips and participating with a light position [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Spot Prices a. Plate Strategy Recommendation - For lithium carbonate 11, it is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation. Upstream enterprises should seize high - price selling - hedge opportunities, and downstream cathode material enterprises should pay attention to low - price stockpiling or buying - hedge opportunities. The support level is 68,000 - 70,000, and the pressure level is 80,000 - 82,000 [13]. - For industrial silicon 11, it is expected to oscillate within an interval. It is recommended to use an interval trading approach and preferably sell slightly out - of - the - money put options at low prices. The support level is 8,200 - 8,300, and the pressure level is 8,900 - 9,000 [13]. - For polysilicon 11, it is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is advisable to consider buying on dips and participating with a light position. The support level is 51,000 - 52,000, and the pressure level is 56,000 - 57,000 [13]. b. Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Lithium Carbonate | 72,680 | 2.14% | 482,790 | 309,446 | 44 | 38,963 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,800 | 0.63% | 498,210 | 290,948 | 12,960 | 49,905 | | Polysilicon | 53,545 | - 0.34% | 237,981 | 132,212 | - 2,686 | 7,850 | [14] Second Part: Fundamental Situation a. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,963 tons, close to the weekly production record high. All lithium - extraction processes saw an increase in production. The total sample inventory was 138,512 tons, a decrease of 1,580 tons from the previous week. The inventory is still at a high level, but the inventory of lithium salt enterprises is shifting downstream, and the downstream inventory has reached a new high [4]. - **Downstream Situation**: Downstream material factories are generally in a cautious and wait - and - see attitude. During the peak demand season, there is a certain demand for pre - National Day stockpiling, and the purchase willingness is relatively strong when the price is low [3]. b. Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: The supply of industrial silicon is steadily increasing, mainly due to the increase in furnace starts in the northwest region. The inventory has been in a high - level consolidation state since August [6]. - **Downstream Situation**: The polysilicon industry has a strong price - support intention, with some enterprises starting to stockpile materials, while the organic silicon and aluminum alloy industries perform generally, with downstream enterprises restocking as needed [6]. c. Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: In September, the polysilicon production remained at a high level, and the supply was continuously abundant. There was a slight inventory accumulation this week [7]. - **Downstream Situation**: The overseas demand for battery cells is good, but the overall market is still in a state of oversupply. Pulling - crystal factories are resistant to high - price silicon materials and mainly purchase as needed [7].

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年09月15日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 沪铜近期实现向上突破，站稳8万整数关口，创出二季度以来新高 。美国8月非农数据不及预期，且大幅下修前值。美国8月PPI低于 预期，通胀较为温和，市场计价美联储年内3次降息的可能性，美 元指数走弱，提振铜价。近期铜价的走高一定程度抑制了国内下 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report Soft Commodity Sector - **Sugar**: The latest news on raw sugar is bearish. Brazil has increased its estimates of sugarcane planting area and production, and the harvest is expected to exceed market expectations. Domestic sugar prices have stopped falling, with low inventory and high import processing costs providing some support. The future trend depends on the performance of raw sugar in the international market [4]. - **Paper Pulp**: The pulp industry chain has not changed significantly. The market is weak, and the supply and demand situation remains to be observed. Although the decline in China's pulp imports has alleviated the supply pressure, it is necessary to pay attention to when producers will reduce shipments to the Chinese market. The price is expected to be range - bound at a low level [6]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: The spot price of double - offset paper is stable, and the market expects an improvement in demand during the peak season. However, the upward driving force is not clear, and the profit and price increase may be limited [8][9]. - **Cotton**: The external market is under pressure, but there are also some supporting factors. The domestic market is in a game between tight old - season supply and loose new - season expectations, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [11]. Fresh Fruit Sector - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuates. The market is mainly concerned about the difference between the expected and actual situation of the new season's production and quality. The price is expected to move within a range [12]. - **Jujube**: The futures price shows a weak and volatile trend. The spot inventory is decreasing, and the price has rebounded seasonally. The new - season production and quality will be determined in September [13]. Trading Strategies - **Sugar**: Due to the bearish news on raw sugar, it is recommended to wait and see. The support level of the main contract is 5480 - 5500, and the pressure level is 5580 - 5600 [5]. - **Paper Pulp**: Although the price may be supported in the short term, the upward driving force is not clear. It is recommended to be bearish after a rebound. The 2511 contract has a support level of 4900 - 4950 yuan and a pressure level of 5100 - 5200 yuan [7]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: The upward driving force is not clear, and the price increase may be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 4000 - 4100 yuan and the pressure at 4400 - 4500 yuan. Consider reverse calendar spreads and long - pulp short - paper spreads, and try short positions near the pressure level [10]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to maintain a range - trading idea. The support range of the 01 contract is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 14300 - 14400. For options, it is recommended to sell a wide - straddle combination strategy [11]. - **Apple**: It is recommended to wait and see. The support range of the 2601 contract is 7500 - 7600, and the pressure range is 8400 - 8500. For options, it is recommended to sell a straddle combination strategy [12]. - **Jujube**: Aggressive investors can hold a reverse calendar spread (short 2601, long 2605) or hold a long position in the 2605 contract and buy a protective put option. It is recommended to take profit on the wide - straddle spread option strategy. The low - level reference range of the 01 contract is 10500 - 10800 points, and the high - level reference range is 11200 - 11500 points [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Apple 2601**: Adopt a range - trading idea. The support range is 7700 - 7800, and the pressure range is 8400 - 8500 [21]. - **Jujube 2601**: Take profit on long positions at high prices. The support range is 11000 - 11500, and the pressure range is 11500 - 12000 [21]. - **Sugar 2601**: Wait and see. The support range is 5480 - 5500, and the pressure range is 5580 - 5600 [21]. - **Paper Pulp 2511**: Short within the range. The support range is 4900 - 4950, and the pressure range is 5150 - 5200 [21]. - **Double - Offset Paper 2601**: Short on rebounds. The support range is 4100 - 4200, and the pressure range is 4350 - 4400 [21]. - **Cotton 2601**: Adopt a range - trading idea. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 14200 - 14300 [21]. Second Part: Sector Weekly Market Review a. Futures Market Review - Apple 2601 closed at 8329, up 33 (0.40%) for the week [22]. - Jujube 2601 closed at 11155, up 155 (1.41%) for the week [22]. - Sugar 2601 closed at 5540, up 17 (0.31%) for the week [22]. - Paper Pulp 2511 closed at 4990, down 72 (-1.42%) for the week [22]. - Double - Offset Paper 2601 closed at 4224, with no change data provided [22]. - Cotton 2601 closed at 13860, down 140 (-1.00%) for the week [22]. b. Spot Market Review - The spot price of apples is 3.75 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 0.20 yuan/jin [27]. - The spot price of jujubes is 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous period and 5.30 yuan/kg year - on - year [27]. - The spot price of sugar is 5890 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 500 yuan/ton [27]. - The spot price of paper pulp (Shandong Yinxing) is 5650 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 400 yuan/ton [27]. - The spot price of cotton is 15248 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous period and up 487 yuan/ton year - on - year [27]. Third Part: Sector Basis Situation - Relevant figures are provided for the basis of apple, jujube, sugar, paper pulp, and cotton, but no specific analysis content is given [37][40][42][44][53]. Fourth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation - Relevant figures are provided for the inter - month spreads of apple, jujube, sugar, and cotton, but no specific analysis content is given [47][48][55] Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple has 0 warehouse receipts, with no change compared to the previous period and the same as the previous year [56]. - Jujube has 9188 warehouse receipts, a decrease of 6 compared to the previous period and an increase of 2906 compared to the previous year [56]. - Sugar has 11599 warehouse receipts, a decrease of 140 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 1927 compared to the previous year [56]. - Paper pulp has 245040 warehouse receipts, an increase of 212 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 233942 compared to the previous year [56]. - Cotton has 5017 warehouse receipts, a decrease of 142 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 2568 compared to the previous year [56]. Sixth Part: Option - Related Data a. Apple Option Data - Relevant figures are provided for apple option trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratios, but no specific analysis content is given [58] b. Sugar Option Data - Relevant figures are provided for sugar option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, historical volatility, and implied volatility, but no specific analysis content is given [59][60][63] c. Cotton Option Data - Relevant figures are provided for cotton option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, and historical volatility, but no specific analysis content is given [67] Seventh Part: Sector Futures Fundamental Situation a. Apple - **Weather Conditions in Producing Areas**: Relevant figures are provided for minimum temperature and precipitation in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific analysis content is given [69] - **Export Situation**: Relevant figures are provided for apple export volume, but no specific analysis content is given [71] - **Inventory Situation**: Relevant figures are provided for China's weekly apple storage inventory and that in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific analysis content is given [73] b. Jujube - Relevant figures are provided for the weekly trading volume of jujubes in Henan and Hebei and the daily arrival volume in the Guangdong Ruyifang market, but no specific analysis content is given [75] c. Sugar - Relevant figures are provided for national sugar industrial inventory, sugar import volume, and the spot - futures price difference, but no specific analysis content is given [77][79][82] d. Paper Pulp - Relevant figures are provided for domestic 4 - port paper pulp inventory, global producer wood pulp inventory days, production volume of various types of paper, and import volume of broad - leaf and coniferous pulp, but no specific analysis content is given [88][89] e. Double - Offset Paper - Relevant figures are provided for double - offset paper's capacity utilization rate, production volume, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption volume, but no specific analysis content is given [91] f. Cotton - Relevant figures are provided for retail sales, inventory, and other data in the clothing industry in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as China's cotton industrial and commercial inventory, import volume, and textile industry data, but no specific analysis content is given [93][94][100]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views Carbonate Lithium - The spot price of battery - grade carbonate lithium on Friday was 72,398 yuan/ton, down 406 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The futures price was in a low - level sideways oscillation, and downstream material factories were actively placing orders and making deals. It's the peak demand season, and with the approaching National Day stock - building period, downstream procurement willingness is strong at relatively low prices [3]. - This week, the output of carbonate lithium was 19,963 tons, close to a record high. All lithium extraction processes saw output increases. The total sample inventory was 138,512 tons, down 1580 tons, with inventory transfer from lithium salt enterprises to downstream. The apparent weekly demand reached a record high of 21,543 tons, and the available inventory days dropped to 45 days [4]. - Currently, the supply and demand of lithium salts are both strong. The short - term inventory reduction trend may accelerate. Downstream enterprises are advised to seize the opportunity for futures buy - hedging according to their risk management needs. The support for the main contract is 68,000 - 70,000 yuan, and the resistance is 80,000 - 82,000 yuan [5]. Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon has been increasing, and the operating rate has continued to rise. Last week, the weekly output of metallic silicon was about 93,000 tons, up 2920 tons. The demand from polysilicon enterprises has increased after profit improvement, while that from the organic silicon and aluminum alloy sectors is relatively weak, and the export demand is good. In the short term, the fundamental contradiction is limited under the dual increase of supply and demand, and the inventory remains at a high level. The price game continues due to strong downstream price - pressing sentiment [6]. - Given the strong expectations and weak reality, an interval trading approach is recommended. Consider selling slightly out - of - the - money put options on dips. The support for the main contract is 8200 - 8300 yuan, and the resistance is 8900 - 9000 yuan [6]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures market is dominated by policy expectations and relevant news, with rapid trend changes and increased volatility. The supply is at a high level and still increasing. The spot price has been raised with policy expectations, but the downstream acceptance is low, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. The upstream price increase and downstream price - pressing put pressure on the photovoltaic module sector. The upward price space in the future is expected to be limited. After the callback, consider going long on dips, or more preferably, sell slightly out - of - the - money put options on dips [7]. - The anti - low - price policy provides strong bottom support. After the callback, consider going long on dips with a light position, as the market is volatile. The support for the main contract is 51,000 - 52,000 yuan, and the resistance is 56,000 - 57,000 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Part One: Spot Prices 1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Carbonate Lithium 11**: Driven by news, it will run in a wide - range oscillation. Upstream producers should seize the opportunity for sell - hedging at high prices, and downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on stocking up at low prices or buy - hedging. The support is 68,000 - 70,000 yuan, and the resistance is 80,000 - 82,000 yuan [13]. - **Industrial Silicon 11**: Facing the confrontation between weak reality and strong policy expectations, it will oscillate in an interval. Adopt an interval trading approach and preferably sell slightly out - of - the money put options on dips. The support is 8200 - 8300 yuan, and the resistance is 8900 - 9000 yuan [13]. - **Polysilicon 11**: Dominated by news, with a significant short - term speculative sentiment increase, it will oscillate at a high level. After the callback, consider going long on dips with a light position. The support is 51,000 - 52,000 yuan, and the resistance is 56,000 - 57,000 yuan [13]. 1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 71,160 yuan | 0.23% | 410,989 | 309,402 | - 14,054 | 38,625 | | Industrial Silicon | 8745 yuan | 0.06% | 303,843 | 277,988 | - 9783 | 49,998 | | Polysilicon | 53,610 yuan | 1.08% | 356,808 | 134,898 | - 1428 | 7820 | [14] - The report also shows the price changes of various products in the lithium - battery new energy industry chain, industrial silicon, and polysilicon from different time points [15][16][17]. Part Two: Fundamental Situation 2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: This week, the output of carbonate lithium was 19,963 tons, close to a record high. All lithium extraction processes' output increased. The total sample inventory was 138,512 tons, down 1580 tons, with inventory transfer to downstream. The apparent demand reached a record high, and the available inventory days dropped [4]. - **Downstream**: The report provides data on the production capacity, operating rate, and output of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate [23][25]. 2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: The supply has been increasing, and the operating rate has continued to rise. Last week, the weekly output of metallic silicon was about 93,000 tons, up 2920 tons. The report also shows the production capacity and inventory data of different regions [6][27][29]. - **Downstream**: The demand from polysilicon enterprises has increased after profit improvement, while that from the organic silicon and aluminum alloy sectors is relatively weak. The export demand is good. The report provides data on the output of organic silicon and the operating rate of aluminum alloy [6][32]. 2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: The supply is at a high level and still increasing. There are no signs of self - restricted production or production cuts from silicon material enterprises. The report shows the total inventory and monthly output data [7][34][38]. - **Downstream**: The downstream acceptance of the price increase is low, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. The photovoltaic module sector faces cost and price - pressing pressures. The report provides data on the output of silicon wafers and photovoltaic modules [7][37].